Beruflich Dokumente
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Cover Photo: Manzanita Parks & Ride, December 2, 2014. Almonte. Marin County Department of Public Works
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Table of Contents
Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................................................ i
Figures ..................................................................................................................................................................... viii
Tables ...................................................................................................................................................................... viii
Maps ........................................................................................................................................................................ xvi
Acknowledgements................................................................................................................................................ xxiv
Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................ xxv
Methods ................................................................................................................................................................. xxvi
15-year Expectations ............................................................................................................................................ xxvii
Mid Century Expectations ....................................................................................................................................... xxx
End of Century Expectations ................................................................................................................................ xxxiii
Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................1
Methodology ...............................................................................................................................................................6
Modeling Methods ......................................................................................................................................................6
Known Issues .......................................................................................................................................................... 15
Sea Level Rise Maps & FEMA ................................................................................................................................ 18
Assessment Methods .............................................................................................................................................. 18
Phase 1: Exposure .......................................................................................................................................... 18
Phases 2 & 3: Sensitivity & Adaptive Capacity ............................................................................................... 19
Phase 4: Risk & Onset..................................................................................................................................... 20
Other Considerations Methods ................................................................................................................................ 20
ASSET PROFILES .................................................................................................................................................. 23
Asset Profile: Land................................................................................................................................................... 24
Acres ........................................................................................................................................................................ 25
Near-term: Scenarios 1 &2 .............................................................................................................................. 25
Medium-term: Scenarios 3 &4 ......................................................................................................................... 26
Long-term: Scenarios 5 &6 .............................................................................................................................. 26
Vulnerable Parcels................................................................................................................................................... 27
Near-term: Scenarios 1&2 ............................................................................................................................... 27
Medium-term: Scenarios 3 and 4 .................................................................................................................... 29
Long-term: Scenarios 5 &6 .............................................................................................................................. 30
Landfill Sites ............................................................................................................................................................ 34
Other Considerations ............................................................................................................................................... 38
Economic ......................................................................................................................................................... 38
Figures
Figure 3. BayWAVE Scenarios Associated Water Levels ..................................................................................... xxvii
Figure 6. Estimated Decreases in Marin County Land Area due to Sea Level Rise ............................................ xxxvi
Figure 1. BayWAVE Process ...................................................................................................................................... 6
Figure 2. Tidal Datum Comparing MHHW to Mean Sea Level and Low Water Levels .............................................. 7
Figure 3. BayWAVE Scenarios Associated Water Levels .......................................................................................... 8
Figure 4. Inflow and Infiltration Sources to the Sanitary System Pipeline ................................................................ 94
Figure 5. Shoreline Habitat Zones .......................................................................................................................... 114
Figure 6. Estimated Decreases in Marin County Land Area due to Sea Level Rise .............................................. 361
Tables
Table 1. Sea Level Rise Projections for San Francisco, CA Region ....................................................................... xix
Table 2. BayWAVE Sea Level Rise Scenarios ....................................................................................................... xix
Table 1. Sea Level Rise Projections for San Francisco, CA Region ..........................................................................7
Table 2. BayWAVE Sea Level Rise & Storms Scenarios...........................................................................................8
Table 3. Exposed Acres by Scenario ...................................................................................................................... 25
Table 4. Acreage Exposed in the Near-term ........................................................................................................... 25
Table 5. Acreage Exposed in the Medium-term ...................................................................................................... 26
Table 6. Acreage Exposed in the Long-term ........................................................................................................... 27
Table 7. Number and Proportion of Vulnerable Parcels in the Near-term............................................................... 28
Table 8. Vulnerable Parcels Land Uses in the Near-term ....................................................................................... 28
Table 9. Number & Proportion of Vulnerable Parcels by Community in the Medium-Term .................................... 30
Table 10. Vulnerable Land Uses in the Medium-term ............................................................................................. 30
Table 11. Vulnerable Parcels at MHHW by Community in the Long-term .............................................................. 31
Table 12. Number & Portion of Vulnerable Parcels in the Long-term ..................................................................... 32
Table 13. Vulnerable Land Uses in the Long-term .................................................................................................. 32
Table 14. Portion of Land Use Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise by Community and Onset ....................................... 35
Table 15. Assed Value of Vulnerable Parcels in Long-term Scenario 6 ................................................................. 38
Table 16. Tax Generation for Parcels Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise Long-term Scenario 6 .................................. 39
Table 17. Vulnerable Buildings by Scenario ............................................................................................................ 43
Table 18. Physical Vulnerabilities of Buildings ........................................................................................................ 43
Table 19. Vulnerable Buildings in the Near-term ..................................................................................................... 44
Table 20. Vulnerable Buildings by Flooding* at MHHW in Near-term Scenario 1 .................................................. 45
Table 21. Vulnerable Buildings in the Medium-term................................................................................................ 46
Table 22. Vulnerable Buildings by Average Flooding* at MHHW in the Medium-term ........................................... 47
Table 23. Vulnerable Buildings in the Long-Term ................................................................................................... 47
Table 24. Number of Vulnerable Buildings by Average Flood* Level at MHHW in the Long-term ......................... 48
a
Table 25. Example Vulnerable Buildings Assets Ranked By Onset and Flooding at MHHW ............................... 49
Maps
Map 1. BayWAVE Study Area ................................................................................................................................... xi
Map 131. Fifteen-year Expectation: Near-term Vulnerable Assets ......................................................................... xiv
Map 132. Mid-century Expectation: Medium-term Vulnerable Assets ................................................................... xvii
Map 133. End of Century Expectations: Long-term Vulnerable Assets ................................................................... xx
Map 1. BayWAVE Study Area ....................................................................................................................................3
Map 2. Northern Study Area Inland Extend of Scenario 6 .........................................................................................9
Map 3. Southern Study Area Inland Extent of Scenario 6 ....................................................................................... 10
Map 4. Northern Study Area Sea Level Rise Scenarios ......................................................................................... 11
Map 5. Southern Study Area Sea Level Rise Scenarios ......................................................................................... 12
Map 6. Northern Study Area Sea Level Rise and 100-year Storm Surge Scenarios .............................................. 13
Map 7. Southern Study Area Sea Level Rise and 100-year Storm Surge Scenarios ............................................. 14
Map 8. Northern Study Area Known Issues with CoSMoS Model .......................................................................... 16
Map 9. Southern Study Area Known Issues with CoSMoS Model .......................................................................... 17
Map 10. Northern Study Area Parcels Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise ..................................................................... 36
Map 11. Southern Study Area Parcels Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise and a 100-year Storm Surge ...................... 37
Map 12. Northern Study Area Vulnerable Buildings ................................................................................................ 56
Map 13. Southern Study Area Vulnerable Buildings ............................................................................................... 57
Map 14. Manzanita Park & Ride Sea Level Rise Exposure .................................................................................... 74
Map 15. Caltrans District 4 ...................................................................................................................................... 75
Map 16. GGBHTD Headquarters & Bus Depot Sea Level Rise Exposure ............................................................. 76
Map 17. San Rafael Transit Center Sea Level Rise Exposure ............................................................................... 77
Map 18. Larkspur Ferry Terminal Sea Level Rise Exposure................................................................................... 79
Map 19. Smith Ranch Airport Sea Level Rise Exposure ......................................................................................... 80
Map 20. Northern Study Area Study Area Roads, Trails, and Bike Paths Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise .............. 84
Map 21. Southern Study Area Roads, Trails, and Bike Paths Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise ................................. 85
Map 22. Northern Study Area Vulnerable Transit, Air, and Marine Transportation Assets ..................................... 86
Map 23. Southern Study Area Vulnerable Transit and Marine Transportation Assets ........................................... 87
Map 24. Northern Study Area Vulnerable Water Service Assets ............................................................................ 92
Map 25. Southern Study Area Vulnerable Water Service Assets ........................................................................... 93
Map 26. SASM Exposure to Sea Level Rise ........................................................................................................... 96
Map 27. Black Point Properties with Potentially Vulnerable OWTSs ...................................................................... 98
Map 28. Unincorporated Tiburon Properties with Potentially Vulnerable OWTSs .................................................. 99
Map 29. Southern Study Area Vulnerable Wastewater Assets ............................................................................. 100
Map 30. Northern Study Area Vulnerable Natural Gas and Electric Assets ......................................................... 103
Map 31. Southern Study Area Vulnerable Natural Gas and Electric Assets ......................................................... 104
Map 32. AT&T Yard & Office at MHHW ................................................................................................................ 105
Map 33: Northern Study Area Vulnerable Stormwater Management Assets ........................................................ 107
Map 34. Southern Study Area Vulnerable Stormwater Management Assets ....................................................... 108
Map 35. Northern Study Area Vulnerable Working Lands .................................................................................... 111
Map 36. Northern Study Area Vulnerable Natural Resources............................................................................... 125
Map 37. Southern Study Area Vulnerable Natural Resources .............................................................................. 126
Map 38. Marin County Area Bay Trail ................................................................................................................... 136
Map 39. Northern Study Area Vulnerable Recreation Assets ............................................................................... 140
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page xvi
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Tool to assess more than 350 built and natural
Figure 3. BayWAVE Scenarios Associated
Water Levels resource assets. The interview results were
Inches of Salt Water combined with the geographic data to develop the
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 Vulnerability Assessment.
Near- 1 36
term
0 15-year Expectations
Sea level rise flooding could reduce useable living
space and adversely affect tourism, transportation,
Medium- 20 56 and natural attractions and resources within 15
term years. The first threats are to buildings, roads, and
original utility systems along the shoreline.
Disruptive flooding to the road and utility networks
could have regional ripple effects for extended
Long- 60 96
periods of time. In the near-term, San Rafael and
term Southern Marin shoreline communities are most at
risk to tidal and storm surge flooding.
Sea 100-year
Level Storm
Rise Surge
In this near-term timeframe, tidal flooding at 10
inches of sea level rise (MHHW) could reach 5,000
acres, 1,300 parcels, and 700 buildings, potentially
The findings of this assessment are based on three impacting tens of thousands of residents,
sea levels and each sea level combined with a 100- employees, and visitors. Regular tidal flooding could
year storm surge as shown in Table 2. Scenarios 1 adversely impact San Rafael east of US Highway
and 2 represent the near-term, and correspond to 101, bayfront Belvedere and Tiburon, Greenbrae
the 2030 NRC projected sea level range. Scenarios Boardwalk, Waldo Point, and Paradise Cay.
3 and 4 represent the medium-term and are within
With an additional 100-year storm surge, the
the 2050 NRC range. Scenarios 5 and 6 represent
previously impacted acres, parcels, and buildings
the long-term and correspond to the 2100 NRC
could face tidal and storm surge flooding. An
range. Figure 2 presents another view of the
additional 3,000 acres, 2,500 parcels, and 3,800
BayWAVE scenario where the red lengths represent
buildings could anticipate storm surge flooding.
tidal flooding in sea level rise scenarios 1, 3, and 5,
These figures amount to six percent of parcels and
and the blue lengths represent the addition storm
buildings in the study area. Storm surge flooding,
surge water level associated with scenarios 2, 4,
could impact North Novato at Gnoss Field, Black
and 6. Together these bands show the cumulative
Point on the Petaluma River, lower Santa Venetia,
potential flooding in the near-, medium-, and long-
Belvedere around the lagoon, bayfront Corte
terms.
Madera, bayfront Mill Valley, Marinship in Sausalito,
Vulnerability is based on an assets exposure, Tamalpais, and Almonte, in addition to the
sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to rising bay communities vulnerable to tidal flooding.
waters and storm surge threats. If an exposed asset
Eight miles of road could expect tidal flooding. Many
is moderately or highly sensitive to sea level rise
of these flooded areas already experience seasonal
impacts, with low to no adaptive capacity, the asset
and king tide flooding. These are:
is considered vulnerable. Vulnerable assets may be
vulnerable to flooding and/or increased rates of
Manzanita, Almonte
subsidence over the coming decades. Extensive
Miller Avenue in Mill Valley,
geographic mapping was conducted overlapping
layers of assets from MarinMap and sea level rise the Marinship area in Sausalito,
extent and flood depth layers to determine exposure. US Highway 101, Corte Madera, Larkspur, and
To ascertain sensitivity and adaptive capacity, the State Route 37 in Novato.
project team interviewed 115 asset managers, for
example, the heads of public works departments, This is expected to worsen in severity and become
using the BayWAVE Asset Vulnerability Assessment increasingly frequent. Tidal flooding would reach the
Canal area of San Rafael, spreading to I-580.
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page xvii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Several roads in Santa Venetia, Tamalpais,
Belvedere, Mill Valley, Marin Lagoon of San Rafael,
and bayfront Corte Madera and Larkspur would
begin to experience seasonal, king tide, and storm
surge flooding more frequently.
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page xviii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Map 131. Fifteen-year Expectation: Near-term Vulnerable Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page xix
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Regular high tide tidal flooding could adversely
IMPACTS AT-A-GLANCE: SCENARIO 4
impact the same locations tidally flooded in the near-
6,700 acres 200,000+ residents plus term, though more severely.
flooded @ MHHW commuting employees
With an additional 100-year storm surge, the
13,500 acres previously impacted acres, parcels, and buildings
flooded @ MHHW 2,000 agricultural acres could face tidal and storm surge flooding, and an
+100-year storm (mostly ranch) additional 7,000 acres, 2,200 parcels, and 3,600
surge buildings could anticipate storm surge flooding.
These figures amount to eight percent of parcels
5,600 homes, Property Owners and seven percent of buildings in the study area.
businesses, & County of Marin Most levees south of Novato are not designed to
institutions Municipalities withstand this level of flooding and could be
Caltrans overtopped. Storm surge flooding would impact the
Sanitary Districts same locations as in near-term scenario 2, 10
62 miles of wet Water Districts inches with a 100-year storm surge, and extends
road, Fire Districts further inland beyond the marshy areas of Mill
3 ferry landings, Sausalito Police Valley, Strawberry, San Rafael, St. Vincents, and
5 marinas, Department North Novato.
4 boat launches CHP
Beaches SMART Eighteen miles of roadway, ten more miles than in
Tidal Marshes GGBHTD the near-term, could expect tidal flooding. Many of
Creeks MTA the impacted roads are the same as those impacted
Eelgrass beds PG&E in the near-term, though much greater lengths could
Ponds AT&T anticipate tidal flooding and flooding depths would
Wetlands CA DFW increase. Storm surge flooding could reach a total of
44 additional miles of roadway. Water travel could
experience similar outcomes as in the near-term,
though the highest high tides and storms surges
would cause even more damage than weathered
twenty years earlier.
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page xxi
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Map 132. Mid-century Expectation: Medium-term Vulnerable Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page xxii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
IMPACTS AT-A-GLANCE: SCENARIO 6 End of Century Expectations
In this long-term timeframe, tidal flooding at 60
16,300 acres 200,000+ residents plus
inches of sea level rise (MHHW) could reach nearly
flooded @ MHHW commuting employees
7,000 acres, 8,000 parcels, and 9,000 buildings,
18,000 acres potentially impacting hundreds of thousands of
flooded @ MHHW 4,150 agricultural acres residents, employees, and visitors. These figures
+100-year storm (mostly ranch) amount to 13 percent of parcels and 12 percent of
surge buildings in the study area. Regular tidal flooding
could adversely impact the same locations impacted
12,100 homes, in the near- and medium-terms and significant
businesses, & Property Owners
County of Marin portions of what would have previously only flooded
institutions from the 100-year storm surge. The additional areas
Municipalities
$15.6 billion in Caltrans that would tidally flood at 60 inches of sea level rise
assessed property Sanitary Districts are:
4
value Water Districts
Fire Districts Tamalpais Valley,
200 miles of wet
Sausalito & Central Mill Valley from the Richardsons Bay shoreline
road,
Marin Police up to and beyond Camino Alto between Miller
3 ferry landings,
Departments and East Blithedale Avenues,
5 marinas,
4 boat launches CHP Mill Valley and Strawberry fronting US Highway
SMART 101 between Seminary Drive and Tiburon
Beaches GGBHTD Boulevard,
Tidal Marshes MTA Santa Venetia north of N. San Pedro Boulevard,
Creeks PG&E Cove Neighborhood, Tiburon,
Eelgrass beds AT&T Belvedere Lagoon neighborhood,
Ponds CADFW Paradise Cay
Wetlands
Mariner Cove, Marina Village, Madera Gardens,
and major retail centers lining US Highway 101,
Riviera Circle, Creekside, and Heatherwood
neighborhoods, Larkspur,
Interstate 580 and westward towards Andersen
Drive in San Rafael and the community of
California Park,
Marin Lagoon and Peacock Gap neighborhoods,
San Rafael,
Bel Marin Keys northern and southern lagoon
areas,
Hamilton, Vintage Oaks, and pockets of
development east of US Highway 101 at
Rowland Boulevard and State Route 37 in
Novato, and,
North Novato at US Highway 101 and Binford
Road.
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page xxiii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Sausalito west of Bridgeway, Southern Marin communities could be vulnerable to
Marin City neighborhood, tidal flooding, and several more could expect storm
Mill Valley east of East Blithedale Ave at Alto surge flooding and may not be available when
Shopping Center, needed most. By this time, the Central Marin Police
Las Gallinas and N. San Pedro Blvd, east of US Department could have to wade through saltwater
Highway 101, San Rafael, surrounding the site to reach Larkspur and Corte
Bayside Acres, Madera residents in need.
Country Club, and
Southern Marin marshes may no longer exist by the
Kentfield.
end of the century, destroying the habitat of several
Tidal and storm surge flooding could cause shoreline birds and mammals. Northern Marin
significant economic losses. Minor storm impacts marshes would become increasingly tidally
5
alone could account for $61 million in property influenced, with tide water reaching US Highway 101
damages. The market value of vulnerable single- in Bel Marin Keys and North Novato up the
family homes could exceed $20 billion in 2016 Petaluma River. Typically freshwater marshes west
dollars. The assessed value, typically less than of US Highway 101, for example, Sutton Marsh,
market value, for all the vulnerable parcels in the could also see damaging salinity impacts. Tidal
6
study area is $15.5 billion. By the end of the marsh lands may increase in Northern Marin if they
century, these figures could be even higher. not prevented from migrating inland.
One-hundred miles of public and private roadways, In the long-term scenario, approximately 1,358 acres
or five percent of all road miles in the study area, on 30 agricultural parcels could be vulnerable to sea
could be vulnerable to tidal exposure. Roads could level rise and storm conditions. Another 3,000 acres
degrade more quickly, or if flood waters are deep are public agency lands near Bel Marin Keys,
enough, become impassable. Lane miles could be Hamilton Field, and the Novato Sanitary District that
more than double this figure. An additional 30 miles are leased for agricultural use. Higher high tides
of roadway could be vulnerable at 60 inches of sea could push brackish conditions inland, reducing
level rise and a 100-year storm surge. Moreover, grazing, manure spreading, and cultivation area.
several park and rides, several hundred bus stops, Moreover, reduced vehicular access on State
and bus transit and SMART rail routes could flood. Routes 37, 101, and other major roads could disrupt
The San Rafael Transit Center, where the SMART product distribution.
train and nearly all local and regional buses stop,
Finally, all of these assets contain or contribute to
could expect tidal flooding at MHHW and storm
the well-being of the regions cultural, archeological,
surge flooding in the long-term. Breakdowns in the
and historic resources that constitute each
transportation network would have major impacts on
communitys sense of place. This is especially a
the economy and daily life functions. In addition,
concern for Sausalito, Tiburon, and Novato.
significant safety hazards could cause injury or loss
of life.
5
2016 dollars China Camp Historic pier. December 2016 King Tide. Credit:
6
2016 dollars Ron Rothbart
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page xxiv
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Map 133. End of Century Expectations: Long-term Vulnerable Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page xxv
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Figure 6. Estimated Decreases in Marin A significant degree of uncertainty exists as to how
County Land Area due to Sea Level Rise soon these increases in sea level could occur
because future carbon emissions are an unknown.
However, even if global citizens stabilize carbon
emissions, sea level rise would likely continue.
Moreover, even if the growing global population
reduces carbon emissions to levels where
atmospheric concentrations decline, the decline will
be slow and sea levels would still likely continue to
rise for decades, and hundreds of years could pass
7,8
before the sea level stabilizes or drops. If
emissions continue to increase, the rate of sea level
rise is also likely to increase and these assets could
be vulnerable sooner than this assessment
presents. Because of this uncertainty, this
assessment is the first step in an iterative process
that will need to be updated as additional science
becomes available and adaptation efforts are
implemented. The sea level rise preparation process
will require consistent monitoring and evaluation to
improve modeling assumptions and ensure
preparation efforts are effective and efficient.
7
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007.
Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science
Basis. 10.7.2 Climate Change Commitment to Year 3000 and
Beyond to Equilibrium.
https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s1
0-7-2.html
8
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007.
Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science
Basis. 10.7.4 Commitment to Sea Level Rise.
https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s1
0-7-4.html
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page xxvi
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
With this vulnerability assessment, Marin County
professionals, officials, residents, employees, and
other Bay Area communities can gain an
understanding of the potential fallout from higher
high tides in a no action scenario. With this
comprehensive view of the potential issues, Marin
County communities can approach preparing for this
shared concern with greater efficiency and
collaboration.
Tiburons Main Street buildings are from the early 1900s, and
are adjacent to the ferry terminal. Credit: Marin CDA
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page xxvii
INTRODUCTION
Introduction
Climate change is affecting natural and built systems While Marins shoreline already experiences regular
around the world, including the California coast. In erosion, flooding, and significant storm events, sea
the past century, average global temperature has level rise will exacerbate these natural processes,
increased about 1.4F, and average global sea level leading to significant social, environmental, and
9
has increased 7 to 8 inches. Sea level at the San economic impacts. The third National Climate
Francisco tide gauge has risen 8 inches over the Assessment cites strong evidence that the cost of
past century, and the National Research Council doing nothing exceeds the costs associated with
12
(NRC) projects that by 2100, sea level in California adapting to sea level rise by 4 to 10 times.
10 Therefore, it is critical the County of Marin,
south of Cape Mendocino may rise 66 inches. The
two major causes of global sea level rise are thermal municipalities, and special districts plan and prepare
expansion of warming oceans and the melting of for the impacts of sea level rise to ensure a resilient
land-based glaciers and polar ice caps.
11 county for present and future generations.
California
th
February 10 1925 More than seven inches
of rain fell in the Ross Valley, overflowing
creeks, and flooding streets. Extensive
damage occurred to homes and
infrastructure in San Anselmo, Ross and
14
Kentfield.
Ross Business District during the 1925 flood.
Credit: Marin History Museum
14
San Anselmo Historical Museum. 2015. San Anselmos Long History of Flooding. http://sananselmohistory.org/articles/flooding/. Accessed 1/29/16
15
Source Unknown
16
Blodgett J.C., and Edwin H. Chin. 1989. Flood of January 1982 in the San Francisco Bay Area, California.
17
Marin Independent Journal. 2011. Highlights of Marins History, from 1850-2010
28
U.S. EPA. Being Prepared for Climate Change: A Workbook for
35
Developing Risk-Based Adaptation Plans. August 2014. Guidance for Incorporating Sea Level Rise into Capital
29
CURRV-Tijuana River Valley - http://trnerr.org/currv/ Planning in San Francisco. September 22, 2014. Appendix 5.
30
Bay Conservation & Development Commission: Adapting to OneSF Checklist
36
Rising Tides. Hayward Resilience Study. 2014. Center for Science in the Earth System (CSES), University of
31
City and County of San Francisco Sea Level Rise Committee. Washington, Conduct a Climate Resiliency Study, Chapter 8.
Guidance for incorporating Sea Level Rise into Capital Conduct a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment.
Planning in San Francisco: Assessing Vulnerability and Risk to http://cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/snoveretalgb574ch8.pdf
37
Support Adaptation. September 2014. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration,
32
http://mitigationguide.org/task-5/steps-to-conduct-a-risk- Office of Environment and Planning, Mike Culp, IFC
assessment-2/3-analyze-risk/ International, Literature Review: Climate Change Vulnerability
33
California Emergency Management Agency, California Assessment, Risk Assessment, and Adaptation Approaches.
Emergency Natural Resource Agency. California Climate http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/climate_change/adaptatio
Adaptation Planning Guide (APG). July 2012. n/publications_and_tools/vulnerability_assessment/index.cfm#
http://resources.ca.gov/docs/climate/01APG_Planning_for_Ada Toc236233837
38
ptive_Communities.pdf California Energy Commission Public Interest Environmental
34
Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Research Program. Adapting to Sea Level Rise: A Guide for
Office of Environment and Planning, Mike Culp, IFC Californias Coastal Communities. 2012.
39
International, Literature Review: Climate Change Vulnerability Bay Conservation & Development Commission: Adapting to
Assessment, Risk Assessment, and Adaptation Approaches. Rising Tides. Hayward Resilience Study. 2014.
40
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/climate_change/adaptatio Federal Emergency management Agency (FEMA) Website.
n/publications_and_tools/vulnerability_assessment/index.cfm# Hazus. Last updated July 8, 2015. http://www.fema.gov/hazus.
41
Toc236233837 2016 dollars
All vulnerable assets are at risk of flooding and/or Equity: Highlights the disparity in cost burden across
increasing rates of subsidence. Two types of populations of different social and economic means,
flooding could occur, tidal flooding at MHHW or and how the social fabric of communities may shift.
seasonal storm flooding. All assets that experience Several storms impacting the south (i.e. Hurricane
tidal flooding will also experience storm surge Katrina, Hurricane Audrey) have shown that natural
flooding. Tidal flooding at the average higher high disasters can cause the greatest harm to low-income
43
tide could flood an asset once a day, several days a communities and communities of color.
month. Each day has two high tides, thus it is Populations that may be at higher risk include, low-
possible that some properties could flood twice a income, limited English speaking, children, and
day. Land that is flooded at this frequency is not those with limited mobility or sensory abilities.
useable for land based development. Storms surge
flooding analyzed in this assessment is a 100-year Management: Highlights political and management
storm surge, such that this storm has a 1 percent issues that will need to be considered when planning
chance of occurring each year. for sea level rise to ensure the public health, safety,
and welfare of East Marin residents.
Corte Madera 313 640 twice as many acres exposed. This is observed for
Larkspur 147 299 San Rafael, Novato, North Novato, and Santa
Tiburon 48 49 Venetia. In this time period, Novato surpasses San
Rafael in exposed acreage, though much of this land
Mill Valley 62 183
is marsh or wetlands, whereas San Rafaels
Sausalito 35 65 exposed land is intensely developed. Within the
Belvedere 24 130 study area, with the compounding 100-year storm
Bel Marin Keys 1,802 2,155 surge in scenario 4, 5,000 more acres could flood
Waldo Point 604 611 compared to scenario 2. The 100-year storm surge
is the major contributor to flooding on additional land
St. Vincent's 339 353
in the medium-term compared to the near-term. This
Strawberry 270 301 jump in vulnerable area is due to the potential failure
North Novato 226 2,457 of shoreline levees south of Novato.
Unincorporated Jurisdictions
Improved
Mill Valley 80 1 195 3
Single- Family
Belvedere 51 5 56 6 Residential 52 24 93 76
Tiburon 46 1 46 1 Unimproved
Sausalito 40 1 61 2 Floating Home 52 1 53 1
Corte Madera 9 0 201 6
Commercial
Novato 3 0 7 0 249 311 437 640
Improved
Waldo Point 59 12 68 13
Commercial
Greenbrae 22 109 67 275
54 62 68 78 Unimproved
Boardwalk
Industrial
Unincorporated Jurisdictions
97 13 172 23
Industrial
Paradise Cay 38 10 54 15 5 2 19 5
Unimproved
Strawberry 25 2 76 5
Common Area 12 48 30 122
Almonte 32 47 52 76
Bayside Acres 19 9 20 9 Rural Unimproved 1 28 1 28
Tiburon 16 5 22 7 Exemption
14 9 31 17
St. Vincent's 12 18 13 19 Improved
Santa Venetia 4 0 652 39 Exemption Vacant 5 69 5 69
Kentfield 3 0 9 0 Tax Exempt 135 2,738 314 4,636
San Quentin 1 1 1 1
Black Point 15 2 46 5 No Data 4 9 4 9
Country Club 2 0 2 0 Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS
Tamalpais 3 0 98 4 * Whole parcels are counted, not just the exposed portion of
North Novato None 24 3 the parcel.
Study Area 3,191 5 5,372 8
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS
Municipalities
Valley and Sausalito could anticipate significant Mill Valley 361 6 361 6
impacts as well, especially with the 100-year storm Belvedere 356 36 356 36
surge associated with scenario 6. Tiburon 145 4 145 4
Sausalito 88 3 88 3
The top three vulnerable communities by portion of
Corte Madera 1,104 30 1,104 30
parcels flooded tidally by long-term scenario 5 are:
Novato 800 4 800 4
1. Bel Marin Keys, 94 percent, Waldo Pt. 75 15 75 15
2. Greenbrae Boardwalk, 80 percent, and Greenbrae
70 80 70 0
3. Almonte, 78 percent of parcels. Boardwalk
Bel Marin Keys 711 94 711 94
This outcome mirrors earlier outcomes, where the Paradise Cay 103 28 103 28
Unincorporated Jurisdictions
Mill Valley 0 1 1 0 3 5 0 1 1 0 5 13 0 6 10 0 12 32
Belvedere 0 5 0 0 5 0 0 5 0 0 22 25 0 37 33 0 47 58
Tiburon 0 1 7 0 1 7 0 1 9 0 1 7 0 3 64 0 7 84
Sausalito 3 0 2 21 0 4 8 0 3 30 0 5 41 0 10 62 2 51
Corte Madera 0 0 0 0 5 17 0 2 3 9 16 41 76 29 66 76 39 77
Novato 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 5 4 3 22 6 9
Almonte 75 0 1 100 48 100 0 2 100 0 70 100 0 74 100 1 87
Bayside Acres 0 11 1 0 11 0 0 18 1 0 11 0 0 13 0 0 21 0
Bel Marin Keys 0 4 0 0 14 0 0 47 0 0 19 0 0 95 0 0 100 0
Black Point 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 18 0 6 27 0 19 36
California Park 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 23 100
China Camp SP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unincorporated Jurisdictions
Country Club 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 6 0
Greenbrae
0 85 0 0 97 0 0 85 3 0 100 0 0 100 0 0 100 0
Brdwlk
Kentfield 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 8 0
Marin City 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 50
North Novato 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 57 0 20 71 0 40 100 0 100
Paradise Cay 0 20 1 0 12 0 0 19 1 0 19 0 0 36 0 0 66 0
Pt. San Pedro 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 100 0
San Quentin 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0
Santa Venetia 0 3 0 0 38 5 0 3 0 0 39 5 0 40 10 0 50 10
St. Vincent's 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 100
Strawberry 0 7 0 0 1 2 0 7 0 0 4 9 0 9 15 0 17 32
Tamalpais 0 0 0 0 3 76 0 0 0 0 0 76 0 3 76 0 3 76
Tiburon 0 20 0 0 9 0 0 20 0 0 9 0 0 7 0 0 32 0
Waldo Point 4 1 3 16 14 5 13 1 3 16 14 47 16 0 60 16 14 73
Marin County 8 1 5 27 5 14 19 2 6 32 6 18 37 10 27 53 15 42
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS
1
2016 dollars
2
2016 dollars
Management
On County of Marin jurisdiction lands, the Baylands
District provides for open space, outdoor recreation,
and other open lands, including areas suited for park
and recreational purposes, access to beaches, and
areas that link major recreation areas. State and
Federal areas are managed by policies of those
governing agencies to provide public access as well.
Municipalities
Belvedere 32 2 84 5
Tiburon 26 1 42 1
Sausalito 21 1 113 4
Novato 6 0 17 0
Corte Madera 5 0 255 7
Mill Valley 5 0 207 3
Greenbrae
72 59 112 91
Boardwalk
Waldo Point 61 16 89 23
Bel Marin Keys 20 3 118 17
Unincorporated Jurisdictions
Almonte 7 1 63 7
Strawberry 7 0 58 3
Paradise Cay 4 1 48 16
Tiburon 1 0 18 6
Santa Venetia 911 41
Tamalpais 100 3
Black Point 15 1
North Novato 7 0
Country Club 5 1
Bayside Acres 3 1
Pt. San Pedro 2 2
China Camp 1 9
De Silva Island 1 6
Total 717 1 4,498 6
Homes along San Pablo Bay, San Rafael. May, 2016. Credit: Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS
BVB Consulting LLC
Vulnerable buildings in San Rafael are concentrated 1. San Rafael, 2,000 buildings
in the Canal neighborhood, the lowest income and 2. Santa Venetia, 900 buildings, and
most diverse neighborhood in the region with many 3. Larkspur, 400 buildings.
limited English proficient residents. Structures on
Greenbrae Boardwalk and Waldo Point Harbor are Of note, 250 buildings in Corte Madera, and 207 in
houseboats that are highly vulnerable to higher high Mill Valley could also experience flooding under the
tides. conditions of scenario 2.
An additional storm surge, could impact more than By percent of building stock impacted under
4,000 additional buildings, totaling six percent of the scenario 1 conditions, the top three vulnerable
building stock in the study area. The top three communities would be:
communities with the highest number of vulnerable
buildings under scenario 2 conditions are: 1. Greenbrae Boardwalk, 59 percent,
2. Waldo Point Harbor, 16 percent, and
Flood Depth *Flood depth data is not available for every vulnerable
Each property could flood with a different amount of building. Buildings that already exist beyond the mean sea
water depending on the propertys proximity to the level are not included.
Bay and its tributaries. While some buildings may be Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS
able to avoid some flooding because they are
elevated above ground level, determining which of
the 12,000 exposed buildings are elevated and by San Rafaels Canal neighborhood continues to
how much is beyond the scope of this report. Thus, experience the most severe flooding. In larkspur, the
the analysis in Table 20 assumes all vulnerable vulnerable buildings are on Boardwalk One and
buildings are situated at ground level. This table along the Corte Madera Creek. A stormy bay could
illustrates how many of the vulnerable buildings are surge waters into more properties in these
flooded with one, two, or ten feet of water in communities and have some striking impacts in
scenarios scenario 1, 3, and 5. Storm surge flooding additional communities. The top three communities
in scenarios 2, 4, and 6, would add an additional with the highest number of buildings vulnerable to
three feet of flooding to the figures. In scenario 1, a storm surge flooding are:
majority of the vulnerable buildings could expect up
to 3 feet of tidal flooding at MHHW. Flooding could 1. San Rafael, 2,097 buildings,
be deeper at the highest tides and shallower at low 2. Larkspur, 1,200 homes, and,
tides. A few buildings could expect up to 9 or 10 feet 3. Santa Venetia, 945 buildings.
of tidal flooding in the near-term.
While San Rafael and Larkspur continue to see
worsening conditions, communities that are
Medium-term: Scenarios 3 & 4 otherwise protected by some type of armoring to
tidal flooding could flood during a 100-year storm
In the medium-term, several more buildings in the
surge combined with 20 inches of sea level rise.
communities vulnerable in the near-term could be
This includes Santa Venetia and Corte Madera.
flooded, especially during a 100-year storm surge.
Sausalito could expect flooding in the Marinship and
At 20 inches of sea level rise, scenario 3, over 2,000
Old Town neighborhoods. Of note, Mill Valleys
buildings across the study area could be vulnerable
Redwoods Community, and several hundred
to tidal flooding, about twice as many as in the near-
additional buildings near Richardsons Bay, could
term. By community the communities with the most
experience storm surge flooding in this time period.
buildings vulnerable to tidal flooding are:
By percentage of buildings stock impacted,
1. San Rafael, 1,088 buildings,
unincorporated water based communities could
2. Larkspur, 165 buildings, and
expect the worst conditions, similar to the near-term.
3. Corte Madera, 138 buildings.
Municipalities
Belvedere 65 4 90 5
These small communities are surrounded by tidal
water at high tides today. They incorporate boating Tiburon 42 1 44 1
and the water as a way of life, and are aware of the Sausalito 67 2 133 4
risks. Adding a storm surge at this level of sea level Novato 17 0 56 0
rise could even devastate some of these smaller bay Corte Madera 138 4 804 21
oriented communities. Mill Valley 7 0 325 5
Greenbrae
1. Greenbrae Boardwalk, 66 percent, 81 66 115 98
Boardwalk
2. Santa Venetia, 42 percent, and
3. Paradise Cay, 26 percent of buildings in the Waldo Point 87 23 90 23
community. Bel Marin Keys 92 13 176 25
Unincorporated Jurisdictions
Almonte 30 3 84 9
In addition, Bel Marin Keys and Corte Madera could Strawberry 33 2 117 7
expect about quarter to a fifth of their buildings stock Paradise Cay 52 17 80 26
compromised during a storm surge. Corte Madera Tiburon 13 4 18 6
could expect impacts in the San Clemente and
Santa Venetia 2 0 945 42
Paradise Drive area. Note also that these
communities were built on fill and thus, vulnerable to Tamalpais 2 0 103 4
increased rates of subsidence. Black Point 18 2 30 3
North Novato 2 0 183 11
Country Club 6 1 6 1
Bayside Acres 2 1 5 2
Pt. San Pedro 2 2 4 5
China Camp 1 9 1 9
De Silva Island 1 6 1 6
Kentfield 11 0
Total 2,013 3 5,608 7
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS
Municipalities
5.1-6 30 Belvedere 423 24 470 27
6.1-7 47 Tiburon 153 4 261 7
7.1- 8 54 Sausalito 154 5 299 10
8.1-9 20 Novato 672 4 871 5
9.1- 10 2 Corte Madera 1,283 33 1,468 38
Mill Valley 329 5 536 8
10.1+ 4
Greenbrae
*Depth data is not available for every vulnerable asset. 119 97 120 98
Boardwalk
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS Waldo Point 90 23 386 100
Bel Marin Keys 683 96 707 99
Almonte 86 9 106 11
Flood Depth Strawberry 185 11 264 15
Unincorporated Jurisdictions
Madera
School, Corte Madera, Tamiscal High School, Neil scenario 4
Corte
&5
Larkspur, Anthony G Bacich Elementary School, Cummins Marin
Marin
Kentfield, and Westminster Presbyterian Church Elem. Montessori
Country
Cove Elem.
Preschool, Tiburon. The remainder, and majority, of Day School
schools in the table are not vulnerable to sea level Schools in
rise alone and can be found under scenario 6, with scenario 5
Redwood
60 inches of sea level rise and a 100-year storm High
Larkspur
surge. Tamiscal Henry Hall
High Middle
Additionally, several of these schools, including Neil School
Cummins Elementary, Adeline E. Kent Middle San
School, Anthony G Bacich Elementary School Andreas
High
already experience stormwater back up flooding
during high tides, and as time continues this Martin Luther
Marin
City
King Jr Schools in
confluence of flooding could worsen. Academy scenario 5
(Middle)
Once high tide reaches the school grounds they Valley
Schools in
could likely be lost to marshlands. In many cases the Mill Valley
Mill
scenario 5
Middle
athletic fields are compromised first. At Tamalpais School
Tamalpais
High School, the only portion impacted by sea level High
rise alone is the low lying athletic fields. Flooding Schools in
San Rafael
Anthony G
Bacich Elem. Schools in
Adaline E scenario 5
Kent Middle
In addition to the school property being impacted
directly, the schools are also impacted by the ability
Strawberry
Strawberry
of students, teachers, and staff to access the Point Elem.
location. This is the case at nearly every school on Schools in
Westminster
scenario 5
the list. And, aside from busing in the Novato School Pres. Church
District, all other students arrive individually by Preschool
vehicle or non-motorized means. If too few students
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS
are able to travel, schools that are funded with state
equalization aid, and required to meet an average
daily attendance threshold, could experience losses
in funding and capacity, and more frequent closures.
Medical Facilities
Several medical facilities, large and small could be
These issues are also a concern for childcare vulnerable, and access to nearly all other in the
facilities, where the child population is typically study could be impeded from the east. Medical
younger than school-aged. Children at thirty-five facilities in the tidally flooded area are:
different childcare facilities could be vulnerable in
San Rafael alone. The Westminster Presbyterian Marin Community Clinic, on Kerner Boulevard in
Churchs preschool also falls in this category. San Rafael, is vulnerable to near-term storm
surges, and medium-term sea level rise.
The parking lots are also compromised on most of According to the Structure Debris Estimates: Hazus
11
these sites. And while all emergency medical Level 1 Flood and Wind Losses, building damage
12
facilities are outside of the vulnerable area, access costs are assigned as:
to them through the flooded area could be limited,
leading to further injury, or worse, loss of life. Yellow Tag
o Affected: Loss is $0 to $5,000, or 2.05 tons
of debris per 1,000 square feet.
Retirement and Assisted Living o Minor: Loss is $5,001 to $17,000, or 4.1 tons
Several sites house people who are older in age and of debris per 1,000 square feet.
may have limited mobility or sensory abilities. These Orange Tag: Loss is greater than $17,000 or 8
people may be especially vulnerable in floods, tons of debris per 1,000 square feet.
power outages, and other events that could isolate Red Tag: Destroyed as defined by the FEMA
them. The locations that could be impacted are: inspector.
Table 27. Damage Cost a Estimates Applied to Vulnerable Buildings in Long-term Scenario 6
Yellow Tag-Minor Orange Tag-Moderate Red Tag-Destroyed
Location
$5,000/building minimum $17,001/building minimum Assessed structural value
San Rafael $16,235,000 $55,202,247 $1,496,065,489
Corte Madera $7,340,000 $24,957,468 $726,321,314
Municipalities
13
2016 dollars
14
2016 dollars
15
National Flood Insurance Program. The Cost of Flooding
Estimator Tool
https://www.floodsmart.gov/floodsmart/content/overlays/cost_of
_flooding_nonajax.jsp. Accessed Dec. 13, 2016.
16
2016 dollars
Management
The Bay Conservation Development Commission
(BCDC) retains development permit authority over
tidelands (below mean high tide), submerged lands,
and public trust lands. Potential state boundary
changes could occur as tide levels rise. This could
significantly impact private property rights when
flooded land becomes lands of the State and
existing residents are forced to pay new leasing
fees.
24, 27, 37, 38, Scenario 1 MT: 19, 22, scenarios 1-3 MT: 45, 49, 68, scenarios 1-5
40, 44, 54, 56, 61, 66, 113, 219, 233, 251,
58, 70, 72, 74, 115, 117, 119 251, 251, 257,
76, 80, 97, 101 259, 125, 126,
127, 145, 151, 154
MT: 17, 23.29,
35, 36, 71, 228
Municipalities
L
San Rafael Ave Roads in Roads in Roads in
L
Hilarita Cir scenario 2 scenarios 2 & 4 scenarios 2, 4,
L P
Edgewater Rd Barn Rd Embarcadero Dr P &5
L L L
Beach Rd Lagoon Rd Bellevue Ave
L
Belvedere
L L
Oxford Ave Lomita Dr
P L
Park Ter Matilda Ave
L L
Plymouth Ave Meadow Rd
L L
Frontage Rd Nelson Ave
L
Surrey Ave Shelter Bay Ave L
L L
Sycamore Ave Somerset Ln
Tamalpais
P
Commons Ln
L
Valley Cir
L L L
Harbor Dr Madera del Lanyard Cv Pixley Ave
L
Lucky Dr
L Presidio Dr Meadow Creek Dr P Redwood Ave
L
Nellen Ave
L Meadowsweet Morning Star Westward Dr
L L
San Clemente Dr L Dr Course
L
Tamal Vista Blvd L Mohave Ct Pacific Queen
L L L
Tamalpais Dr Mohawk Ave Passage
L L L
Yolo St Monona Dr Paloma Dr
L L
Navajo Ln Prince Royal Dr
L
Sanford St Prince Royal
L
Seamast Passage
L P
Passage Sandpiper Cir
L L
Seminole Ave Seawolf Passage
P
Tradewind Simon Ranch Rd
L L
Passage Spindrift Passage
Staghound
L
Passage
L
Wornum Dr
P
Anchor Street Roads in Roads in Roads in
L
Coloma St scenario 2 scenarios 2-4 scenarios 2-5
L, P L P
Gate 5 Rd Humboldt Ave L, P Bridgeway Bay St
L L L L
Harbor Dr Turney St Johnson St Bee St
L L L
Heath Wy Litho St Caledonia St
P L L
Liberty Ship Wy Locust St El Portal St
P L L
Sausalito
L
Claire Wy
L
Harriet Way
L
Juanita Ln
P
Lagoon Vista
L
Leland Wy
L
Main St
L
Mar West St
P
Marsh Rd
L
Pamela Ct
L, M
Paradise Dr
C Roads in scenario Roads in Roads in Roads in Roads in
Hwy 101
L 1 scenarios scenarios 1-3 scenarios 1-4 scenarios 1-5
Redwood Hwy L L, P
L Creekside Dr 1&2 Corte del Sir Francis Drake Barry Way
Bon Air Rd L L L, M L, M
Greenbrae Doherty Dr Coronado Blvd College Ave
M, P L, P L P L
Boardwalk Industrial Wy Diane Ln Camellia Cir Cornell Ave
L L L
Larkspur Plaza Liberty St Heather Wy Corte del Bayo
L, P L P L
Rich St Midway Rd Rose Ln Real
L L L P
Riviera Cir Dr Tulane Dr S Eliseo Dr Creek View Cir
L L P
Via la Brisa Stanford Ct Cross Creek Pl
L L
William Ave Dartmouth Dr
P
Elizabeth Cir
L
Larkspur
Estelle Ave
L
Frances Ave
P
Gregory Pl
P
Gretchen Pl
L
Harvard Dr
P
Laderman Ln
Larkspur Lndg Cr L
P
Lupine Ct
L
Magnolia Ave
L
Murray Ave
P
Orchid Dr
Sandy Creek Wy P
P
Scott Pl
L
Victoria Wy
L
Yale Ave
L
Inyo Cir L
Laconheath Ave
L Vera Cruz Ave
L
Lassen Ln
L
Lavenham Rd
L
Los Padres Cir
L
Manuel Dr
L
Maybeck St
L
Mildenhall St
L
Modoc Pl
L
Moore Rd
L
Palm Dr
L
Pizarro Ave
L
Plumas Cir
L
Presidio Dr
L
Renaissance Rd
L
Richardson Rd
L
Richardson Wy
L
Ripley Ln
L
S Palm Dr
L
San Pablo Ave
L
San Pablo Ct
L
Stern Dr
L
Stonetree Ln
L
Tahoe Cir
L
Trinity Dr
L
Vintage Wy
L
Woodbridge Wy
Road in scenarios
Acres
M
Beach Dr Road in scenarios
4 4&5
M
Bahama Reef Bermuda
M M
Del Oro Lagoon Harbour
M
Calypso Shores
M
Caribe Isle
M
Cavalla Cay
M
Dolphin Isle
M
Montego Key
M Roads in scenario Roads in
Atherton Ave
P 4 scenarios 4 &
Bachelors Rd P
P Glen Rd 5
Bayview St P
P Harbor Dr
Beattie Ave P
Hunters Club Rd
Black Point
Bucks Landing P
M Tamarin Ln
Rd
P
Cavallero Ct
P
Channel Dr
P
Days Island Rd
P
Holly Ave
P
Norton Ave
M
Olive Ave
M
School Rd
M
Auburn St Roads in scenario
California
M
Woodland Ave 5
Park
scenario 2 2 2
scenario 2 2 2
Pt. San Pedro Rd M
M
Summit Ave
P M
Boardwalk Lucky Dr scenarios 1& 2 scenarios 1& 2 scenarios 1& 2
M
Berens Dr Roads in scenario Roads in
M
Lilac Ave 4 scenarios 4 & 5
M M M
McAllister Ave Lancaster Ave Acacia Ave
M M
Sherwood Ct Bon Air Rd
Kentfield
P M
Stadium Wy College Ave
M
Hillside Ave
M
Kent Ave
Laurel Grove
M
Ave
Sir Francis Drake
M
Blvd
C Rods in scenario
Hwy 101
Marin
City
M 5
Donahue St M
M Terners Dr
Drake Ave
C Roads in scenario Roads in Roads in Roads in Roads in
Hwy 37
Novato
North
M M
Jamaica St Martinique Ave &5
Cay
M
Paradise Cay Saba Ln
P M
Marina Trinidad Dr
M
St Thomas Wy
McNear Brickyard Roads in
Pt. San
P
Pedro
Rd scenario 2
P
McNears Rd Pt. San Pedro
M
Rd
C Roads in scenario Roads in Roads in Roads in Roads in
Hwy 580
1 scenarios scenarios 1-3 scenarios 1-4 scenarios 1-5
Quentin
P P
San
M
Geneva Wy
M
Hacienda Wy
M
Hawthorn Wy
M
La Pasada
M
La Playa Wy
M
LaBrea Wy
M
Mabry Wy
M
Meadow Dr
M
Palmera Wy
M
Rafael Wy
M
Rosal Wy
M
Vendola Dr
C Roads in scenario Roads in Roads in Roads in Roads in
Hwy 101 N
1 scenarios scenario 2 scenarios 2 & 4 scenarios 1-5
M M M
Barbaree Way 1&2 De Silva Island Belvedere Dr Heron Dr
P P M P
Channel Lndg Dr Captains Lndg Strawberry Lndg
Strawberry
M M
Greenwood Bay E Strawberry Dr Harbor Cove ay Strawberry
P M M P
Dr Strawberry Cir Ricardo Rd Village
M M
Greenwood Cove Seadrift Lndg Weatherly Dr
M C
Dr Tiburon Blvd
P
Redwood Hwy Villa Laguna
M
Frontage Rd
M
Salt Lndg
M
Seminary Dr
C Roads in Roads in Roads in
Shoreline Hwy
Tennessee Valley scenario 2 scenarios 2 & 4 scenarios 2, 4,
Tamalpais
M &5
Rd
Valley
M M
Almonte Blvd Gibson Ave
M
Cardinal Ct
M
Cardinal Rd
M
Flamingo Rd
P P Roads in Roads in Roads in Roads in
Gate 6 Dock Gate 6 1/2 Rd
Waldo Point
C P
1&2 Shoreline Hwy Main Dock
M
Bolinas St
GGT routes:
o Scenario 1: 8, 10, 18, 24, 27, 37, 38, 40,
44, 54, 56, 58, 70, 72, 74, 76, 80, 97,
and 101.
o Scenario 3: 4
o Scenario 5: 2
MT routes
o Scenario 1: 17, 23.29, 35, 36, 71, 228;
o Scenario 3: 19, 22, 61, 66, 113, 115,
117, 119
o Scenario 5: 45, 49, 68, 219, 233, 251,
251, 251, 257, 259, 125, 126, 127, 145,
151, 154.
Source: CoSMoS, MarinMap. Credit: BVB Consulting LLC
These routes could be vulnerable to dangerous
conditions and loss of access at stops and between
them. MT has more than 170 stops and GGT has
about 115 stops that could be vulnerable at MHHW
in the long-term. Several of these stops are also
used by the Marin Airporter and the Sonoma Airport
Shuttle, including Manzanita Park and Ride in
Almonte and the San Rafael Transit Center.
Additional private company buses, such as
Genentech, also pick-up commuters from the
Manzanita site. Manzanita is already seasonally
vulnerable and the San Rafael Transit Center is
vulnerable in the medium- to long-terms.
Bicycling
Bike paths along existing roadways could be
vulnerable as well, and much like cars, bicycles
could be vulnerable to frequent saltwater exposure.
In addition, several multi-use trails such as the Mill
Valley-Sausalito and Corte Madera Creek Pathways
could be vulnerable in the near-term because of the
waterway crossing and bordering routes. Bikeways
are also vulnerable to flooding in the northern part of
the study area around Bel Marin Keys.
Airports
The Gnoss Field Airport in North Novato could be
vulnerable in the long-term, and Smith Ranch airport
in eastern San Rafael could be vulnerable in the
medium-term. Both of these small plane facilities
depend on levees for flood protection; however,
Loch Lomond Marina, San Rafael. Credit: BVB Consulting LLC Gnoss Field depends on levees managed by other
land owners closer to shoreline. If the respective
levees fail, both airfields would be vulnerable to high
tides sooner than the timeline of this assessment
23
Biging, Greg S., John D. Radke, and Jun Hak Lee (University of
California, Berkeley). 2012. Impacts of Predicted SeaLevel
Rise and Extreme Storm Events on the Transportation
Infrastructure in the San Francisco Bay Region. California
Energy Commission. Publication number: CEC5002012040.
Table 33. Example Transportation Assets Ranked by Onset and Flooding at MHHW
Near-term Medium-term Long-term
Location Asset
Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 5
Sausalito Sausalito Ferry facilities No data No data No data
Sausalito Marina Plaza Harbor 57 86 219
Larkspur Bay Trail 0-54 0-6 0-86
Waldo Point Richardson Bay Marina 45 74 187
Tiburon Ferry facilities 4 5 129
San Rafael Hwy 580 East bound 0-4 0-410 4-78
San Rafael Kerner Blvd 0-4 0-47 8-75
Belvedere Corinthian Yacht Club 4 43 11
San Rafael Francisco Blvd E 0-310 0-47 1-75
Bel Marin Keys Bel Marin Keys Blvd 0-310 0-46 0-86
San Rafael Bellam Blvd 0-35 0-4 0-73
San Rafael Canal Street 0-34 12-42 2-711
27
2016 dollars
Map 26. SASM Exposure to Sea Level Rise Marinship area service could diminish as
development is flooded out.
The Main Street Pump Station in Sausalito
collects and transports 95 percent of the
effluent brought to the treatment plant and
borders the shoreline.
Locust Pump Station could become
burdened with tidal water infiltration.
Anchor Street Pump Station could become
burdened.
Princess Pump Station, 500 block of
Bridgeway could become burdened, and
controls across the street near the Trident
Restaurant could be flooded.
Marin City Pump Station could become
burdened with tidal water infiltration.
Drake Pump Station could become
burdened with tidal water infiltration.
Two pumps Stations on Gate 5 Road could
become burdened with tidal water infiltration
and could be vulnerable to subsidence.
Two sewer pipes extending under US
Highway 101 could be vulnerable to
subsidence and road shifts.
Access hatches along effluent pipes
extending into Richardson Bay could be
overtopped frequently.
31
Pacific Gas and Electric Company. 2016. Climate Change
Vulnerability Assessment. http://www.pgecurrents.com/wp- PG&E repair from storm damage in Tam Valley. Credit: Marin
content/uploads/2016/02/PGE_climate_resilience.pdf. DPW
32
Pacific Gas and Electric Company. 2016. Climate Change
Vulnerability Assessment. http://www.pgecurrents.com/wp-
content/uploads/2016/02/PGE_climate_resilience.pdf.
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 100
UTILITIES
Table 38. Potential Risks to Vulnerable
PG&E Natural Gas Assets
Storm Reduced soil cover on pipeline or
Flooding unsupported pipeline spans due
to soil scour or erosion.
Damage from floating debris
such as tree limbscoming into
contact with gas pipelines (known
as dynamic loading) and
potentially collecting against the
pipeline like a dam (known as
static loading), resulting in
bending stress.
Bending stress on the gas
pipeline from unstable soil.
Sea Level Damage from buoyancy forces on
Rise pipeline segments, and potential
for erosion around segments
Source: PG&E, Asset Manager Interview Response, 2016
Electricity
According to PG&E, some electric distribution lines,
distribution transformers, transmission lines,
substations could be vulnerable to sea level rise.
Vulnerable substations are located in Greenbrae,
Larkspur, Ignacio (Novato), and Hamilton Wetlands
(Novato).
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 101
UTILITIES
Map 30. Northern Study Area Vulnerable Natural Gas and Electric Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 102
UTILITIES
Map 31. Southern Study Area Vulnerable Natural Gas and Electric Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 103
UTILITIES
Telecommunications
Several asset managers provide telecommunication
services including: AT&T, Comcast, Charter, Dish,
and others. According to AT&T asset managers,
telecommunication assets are not vulnerable on
their own, as they are designed to withstand wet
weather and tidal impacts. In addition, consistent
level of service is a primary goal of these
companies; therefore, the company would anticipate
and prepare for potential impacts. The most
vulnerable assets are the communication cables
under vulnerable roads. Poles are also vulnerable
during storms to falling trees.
33
San Rafael Stormwater Asset Manager.
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 104
UTILITIES
Pamela Court and Cove pump stations could face
tidal flooding as well.
Caltrans manages storm drainage systems that are Stormwater Pump Station in Santa Venetia. Credit: BVB
prone to backing up, such as Manzanita and Consulting LLC
Shoreline Highway in Mill Valley, and Lucky Drive in
Larkspur. In addition, as discussed in the
transportation section, US Highway 101 depends on
the county, city, and town investments in stormwater
management.
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 105
UTILITIES
Map 33: Northern Study Area Vulnerable Stormwater Management Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 106
UTILITIES
Map 34. Southern Study Area Vulnerable Stormwater Management Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 107
UTILITIES In addition to the sites listed in the table below the
Table 39 lists some of the potentially vulnerable
following sites, would only be vulnerable in scenario
utility assets in the study area. This list measures
6 to storm impacts:
onset and tidal mean higher high water (MHHW).
Note that many utilities assets are underground and PG&E substation Novato,
could be influenced before these scenarios are
Sausalito-Marin City treatment plant,
discernable on the surface.
Tiburon Paradise Cove treatment plant, and
Where buildings could be vulnerable to surface Marin Municipal Water District (MMWD)
flooding, underground water, wastewater, and headquarters, Corte Madera
communications utilities could also be threatened.
To learn more about threatened buildings read the
Community, Land, and Building Profiles.
Table 39. Example Vulnerable Utility Assets Ranked by Onset and Flooding at MHHW.
Near-term Medium-term Long-term
Location Asset
Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 5
Bel Marin Keys NMWD cathodic protection well Underground asset
Bel Marin Keys NMWD water distribution system Underground asset
Most shoreline
PG&E natural gas lines Underground asset
communities
Greenbrae
PG&E substation No data
Bdwk
San Rafael AT&T headquarters and yard 14 25 6
Novato Sanitary District treatment
Novato 2-17 5-46
plant
Larkspur PG&E Substation 4
San Rafael PG&E Headquarters 3
Sewerage Agency of Southern
Mill Valley 23
Marin (SASM) treatment plant
Bel Marin Keys PG&E electrical substation No data
Novato NMWD air valves No data
Automated valve interconnecting
Novato No data
NMWD and MMWD
Novato NMWD fire water reserves No data
Marin City Sewage pipes under 101 Subsidence, underground asset
Most shoreline
PG&E transmission lines Subsidence
communities
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS, Asset Manager Interviews
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 108
UTILITIES
Other Considerations separation could divide the community into factions,
increase tension, and reduce community cohesion
and resiliency.
Economic
If these essential utility systems fail and residences
become unlivable, depopulation could have Management
significant impacts on the local year-around Several asset managers indicated that utility lines
economy. If vacation homes are no longer able to are often placed under and along publically owned
offer essentials or amenities, such as internet, roads. Additional public right-of-way to move the
tourists could begin to find the area undesirable and roads and utility assets is inadequate, and new land
seek other destinations. Visitor serving vacation would need to be acquired. Utility systems are often
rentals, bed and breakfasts, inns, and restaurants managed or regulated by state agencies, such as
could expect significant declines in patronage as the Regional Water Quality Control Board and the
well. Repairs to community and private systems California Public Utilities Commission, and any
could cost hundreds of millions of dollars. improvements would require their involvement.
Environmental
If wastewater systems fail due to sea level rise,
environmental contamination is highly likely and
could become a hazard to people and wildlife
vulnerable to the flood waters. Negative impacts to
water quality are a major concern and are governed
by the Clean Water Act.
Social Equity Utility lines along Pier 6, Kappas Marina. April 2016. Credit:
Those on well and septic without financial means to BVB Consulting LLC
update their utility systems to account for higher
water levels are more vulnerable than those who
can. Typically, unless financed via special
assessment, funding measures are community wide,
and in many of the shoreline communities not all
homes and businesses are directly impacted and
may not be willing to share the cost burden for those
who are directly impacted. This community
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 109
WORKING LANDS
Asset Profile: Agriculture
Working lands host cultivation and livestock
activities. The majority of operations exposed to sea IMPACTS AT-A-GLANCE: SCENARIO 6
level rise on the Marin shoreline are ranches, 4,150 agricultural acres
dairies, and small produce farms. The parcels are 13 land owners
(mostly ranch)
concentrated in St. Vincents, surrounding Bel Marin Site specific Vehicular access
Keys, and in North Novato. The following are
vulnerabilities these operations could face: Property owners
27 Parcels
Lessees
Loss of vehicular access to and from sites and
processing facilities during storms, and
eventually, on a regular basis. Heavy vehicles
may lose access as roadways become
Map 35. Northern Study Area Vulnerable
compromised by flooding. Working Lands
Flooding could reduce useable space more
often and, in some locations, permanently.
If operations maintain on site wells to care for
their animals that are located in the exposed
area, the water source could be vulnerable to
saltwater intrusion and could become unusable
without treatment.
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 110
WORKING LANDS rise scenarios. Habitat changes prompted by sea
Other Considerations
level rise could require new conservation
management plans and improvements in the coming
Economic decades to ensure water quality standards are
Vulnerable land based operations account for upheld.
34
$17,745,567 in assessed land and improvement
value that could decrease as lands newly under The Countywide Plan strongly supports continued
water become waters of the State. If exporting diversified agricultural uses. The Agricultural
agricultural goods becomes an ever increasing Production Zone (APZ) and Agriculture, Residential
challenge on flooded roads, economic impacts could Planned (ARP) districts are the zoning for most of
be incurred, including job losses, and at worst the properties vulnerable in the study area.
complete operation relocation or closure.
Environment
Intrusion of brackish water could change the
ecological conditions of the ranchlands and ranch
management practices. Invasive species are already
a growing concern in the agricultural community,
and warming conditions, with a weakening in the
native flora, could increase the extent of some heat
loving invasive plant species. In addition, as grazing
land becomes more tidally influenced, the
opportunity water quality contamination from manure
and wading increases. If agricultural wells are in the
exposed are, they could be vulnerable to saltwater
intrusion. This could necessitate additional
engineering or new water sources all together.
Social Equity
Employees of these operations could be
disproportionately impacted if operations need to
reduce labor. Losing agricultural businesses and
jobs could have significant impacts on social
outcomes.
Management
Agriculture is a highly regulated industry at nearly all
levels of government. For example, at the federal
level is the Clean Water Act (Sections 401 and
35
404) and total maximum daily sediment loads that
farmers must comply with to reduce erosion and
sediment loads to creeks. In several cases, to
comply and improve water quality, farmers have
fenced off creeks from livestock wading, installed
new stream crossings and restored riparian areas
that could be compromised under these sea level
34
2016 dollars
35
US Environmental Protection Agency. Water: Clean Water Act.
Water Quality and 401 Certification.
http://water.epa.gov/lawsregs/guidance/cwa/waterquality_index
.cfm
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 111
NATURAL RESOURCES
Asset Profile: Habitats & Wildlife
Marin County is known and treasured for its IMPACTS AT-A-GLANCE: SCENARIO 6
beaches, estuaries, wetlands, marshes, creeks,
national and state park lands, and wildlife preserves. 6,500 acres of wetlands CA DFW
Several natural resource assets on the Marin 5,500 acres of marshland USFWS
shoreline could be vulnerable to sea level rise and State Lands
5+ Narrow Beaches
storms, however; it is important to note that a Commission
significant portion of the shoreline is developed or 568+ acres of Eelgrass County of Marin
bordered by development in some way. This Local
development and human activitvity has reduced the Ridgeway rail municipalities
natural resilience of the baylands by constricting Soft salty bird's-beak Marin Audubon
habitat, fragmenting habitat, altering sediment White-rayed pentachaeta Society
36
supply, and cutting off wildlife corridors. Salt-marsh harvest National Audubon
Simultaneously, urbanization stresses wildlife with mouse Society
pollution, invasive species, food web disturbances, Tidewater goby Nature
37
and close proximity to people and pets. Natural And more Conservancy
habitats tend to be resilient to storms, however,
some storms may be stonrg enough to cause large
changes in landscape and worse, permanant
inundation could shift habitats from one type to
another in the same location, for example marsh to
38
mudflats.
36
Goals Project. 2015. The Baylands and Climate Change: What
We Can Do. Baylands Ecosystem Habitat Goals Science
Update 2015 prepared by the San Francisco Bay Area
Wetlands Ecosystem Goals Project. California State Coastal
Corte Madera Ecological Reserve bordering Greenbrae
Conservancy, Oakland, CA. Pg. 27 Boardwalk, looking on to San Quentin. Credit: BVB Consulting
37
38
Ibid. LLC
Ibid. Pg. 156, 158
39
Ibid., Pg. 37
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 112
NATURAL RESOURCES
Figure 5. Shoreline Habitat Zones
Insert natural resources graphic
A majority of the natural resource areas are Bluff erosion can be exacerbated by sea level rise
managed by government agencies for public use. along the shoreline and can have varying impacts on
Major examples include: Golden Gate National beach habitats. Eroding bluffs can be a major source
44
Recreation Area, Bothin Marsh, China Camp State of sediment or rock, allowing beaches to evolve.
Park, and San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge. Alternatively, beach loss due to a major bluff
In addition, natural resource lands are also held by collapse can negatively impact sand crabs, wrack
non-profit organizations such as the Nature consumers, and species that depend on beach
45
Conservancy or Audubon Society, and some habitats for breeding and nesting. Beaches known
habitats are privately owned. to provide habitat include:
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 113
NATURAL RESOURCES
Tidal Estuaries, Wetlands, & Marshes
An estuary is a partially enclosed shoreline body of
brackish water, or a mixture of fresh and saltwater,
with one or more rivers or streams flowing into it that
mix with and transition to open ocean. Additionally,
timing and extent of the rise and fall of the tide may
46
be altered in estuaries and tidal rivers.
46
Largier, J.L., B.S. Cheng, and K.D. Higgason, editors. 2010.
Climate Change Impacts: Gulf of the Farallones and Cordell
Bank National Marine Sanctuaries. Report of a Joint Working
Group of the Gulf of the Farallones and Cordell Bank National
Marine Sanctuaries Advisory Councils.
47
Knowles, N. and D.R. Cayan. 2002. Potential effects of global
warming on the Sacramento/San Joaquin watershed and the
China Camp State Park, San Rafael. Credit: Marin CDA San Francisco estuary. Geophysical Research Letters 29:1891.
48
Goals Project. 2015. The Baylands and Climate Change: What
We Can Do. Baylands Ecosystem Habitat Goals Science
Update 2015 prepared by the San Francisco Bay Area
Wetlands Ecosystem Goals Project. California State Coastal
Conservancy, Oakland, CA. Pg. 24
49
Largier, J.L., B.S. Cheng, and K.D. Higgason, editors. 2010.
Climate Change Impacts: Gulf of the Farallones and Cordell
Bank National Marine Sanctuaries. Report of a Joint Working
Group of the Gulf of the Farallones and Cordell Bank National
Marine Sanctuaries Advisory Councils.
50
Ackerly, D. D., R. A. Ryals, W. K. Cornwell, S. R. Loarie, S.
Veloz, K. D.Higgason, W. L. Silver, and T. E. Dawson. 2012.
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity and
Ecosystem Services in the San Francisco Bay Area. California
Energy Commission. Publication number: CEC-500-2012- 037.
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 114
NATURAL RESOURCES
wetlands and marshes further upland until McInnis Marsh, San Rafael
freshwater inputs can balance out salinity. Studies McNears Beach Park,
on the effect of salinity extremes indicate that, when Corte Madera Ecological Reserve,
combined with temperature stress, salinity can Triangle Marsh, Corte Madera
negatively impact intertidal invertebrates through National Audubon Society Lands,
51,52
increased embryonic mortality and decreased Nature Conservancy Lands,
53
adult aerobic performance. In addition, projected Paradise Beach Park, Unincorporated Tiburon
increases in storm activity can remove larger
54 Pt. Tiburon Marsh,
intertidal organisms. If tides do not retreat as far as
San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge, St.
they currently do with sea level rise, these areas
Vincents
could shift from intertidal to underwater habitats.
Santa Margarita Island, Santa Venetia
In general, vegetation occurs from just above mean Santa Venetia Marsh,
sea level (MSL) to just above mean higher high Scottsdale Marsh, Mill Valley
water. Cordgrass is found at lower elevations, and Shorebird Marsh, Strawberry
pickleweed is typically at the MHHW limit with a Spinnaker Point Marsh, San Rafael
number of other species depending on local Strawberry Point Tidal Area, and
elevation, drainage, soils, site history and other Tiscornia Marsh, San Rafael.
factors. As sea level rises, these plants will need to
migrate to higher lands land if sediment accretion
does not maintain marsh elevation in relation to Bay
water level. The following are examples of Eelgrass is also a critical tidal habitat, typically in
vulnerable locations featuring estuarine, tidal slightly deeper, saltier waters, associated with rocky
wetland, and marsh habitats: ground. These habitats can be found in
Richardsons Bay in Sausalito, Belvedere, and
Aramburu Wildlife Preserve, Strawberry Tiburon. Eelgrass is a vascular, perennial marine
Bahia/Rush Creek Marshes, Novato plant that typically occurs in shallow waters from 0 to
Bothin Marsh, Almonte 55
6 feet below mean low tide. Eelgrass beds trap
Cal Park Hill wetlands suspended materials, take up nutrients and other
Canalways Marsh, San Rafael dissolved substances, help to prevent erosion,
China Camp State Park, increase water clarity and quality, produce organic
Diked baylands, Novato matter, and export dying plant materials. Eelgrass
Gallinas Creek, San Rafael beds also provide food and feeding grounds for
56
Hamilton Wetlands, Novato several marine food chains. As mean low tide rises
Island Park, closer to shore, these essential plants could be
Madera Gardens Lagoons, Corte Madera flooded out and denied adequate sunlight to survive
Marin Audubon Society Lands, and maintain this valued habitat.
Marin Conservation League Lands,
Eelgrass beds are recognized by both federal and
state agencies as sensitive and highly valuable
51
Przeslawski, R., Davis, A. R. and Benkendorff, K. (2005), habitat for a suite of species. They are regulated
Synergistic effects associated with climate change and the under the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation
development of rocky shore mollusks. Global Change Biology, and Management Act. Eelgrass beds are listed as a
11: 515522. doi: 10.1111/j.1365- 2486.2005.00918.x Habitat Area of Particular Concern because they are
52
Deschaseaux, E.S.M, A.M. Taylor, W.A. Maher, A.R. Davis.
2009. Cellular responses of encapsulated gastropod embryos susceptible to degradation, especially ecologically
to multiple stressors associated with climate change. JEMBE important, and/or located in an environmentally
383(2):130-136. stressed area. National Oceanic and Atmospheric
53
Vajed Samiei, J., Novio Liares, J.A., Abtahi, B. 2011. The Associations fisheries policy recommends no net
Antagonistic Effect of Raised Salinity on the Aerobic 57
Performance of a Rocky Intertidal Gastropod loss of eelgrass habitat function in California. The
Nassariusdeshayesianus (Issel, 1866) Exposed to Raised
Water Temperature. Journal of the Persian Gulf 2(6): 29-36. NOAA Fisheries West Coast Region. 2014. The Importance of
54
Largier, J.L., B.S. Cheng, and K.D. Higgason, editors. 2010. Eelgrass. Updated fall 2014.
Climate Change Impacts: Gulf of the Farallones and Cordell http://www.westcoast.fisheries.noaa.gov/stories/2014/04_1107
Bank National Marine Sanctuaries. Report of a Joint Working 2014_eelgrass_mitigation.html. Accessed 1/18/17
56
Group of the Gulf of the Farallones and Cordell Bank National Ibid
57
Marine Sanctuaries Advisory Councils. Ibid
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 115
NATURAL RESOURCES
policy establishes protocols for mitigating adverse Miller Creek,
impacts on eelgrass, restoration, monitoring, and Murphy Creek,
evaluation Novato Creek,
Novato Ditch System,
Nyhan Creek,
Freshwater Resources Pacheco Creek,
Freshwater habitats are also likely to see impacts Peacock Gap Creek,
from sea level rise and storm surges. Changes in Petaluma River,
salinity and water levels could cause habitat shifts, Reed Creek,
especially when these influences are regular and not Rush Creek,
seasonal. In scenario 6, with 60 inches of sea level Ryan Creek,
rise and 100-year storm surge, saltwater can travel
Salt Works Canal,
miles inland, totaling 211 miles of creeks that could
San Antonio Creek,
be impacted by higher levels of saltwater. San
San Clemente Creek,
Antonio Creek in North Novato could fill with
saltwater up to ten miles upstream in the long-term. San Rafael Airport Ditch,
Similarly, the Corte Madera channel could fill with San Rafael Creek
saltwater nearly eight miles inland. On average, up Simmons Slough,
to one half of a mile upstream could be under tidal Strawberry Ditch,
influence. This could shift existing freshwater habitat Strawberry Marsh,
to brackish habitat. Creeks that could be affected by Sunny Oaks Drainage,
rising bay waters include: Tamalpais Creek,
West Creek,
Armory Creek Willow Creek, and
Arroyo Corte Madera del Presidio, Wolfe Grade Creek.
Arroyo de San Jose,
Baccaglio Basin Drainage, In addition, freshwater ponds and vernal pools within
Basalt Creek, the Petaluma Marsh System in North Novato, large
Beach Marsh Channel, freshwater emergent marshes along the western
Black John Slough, side of Novato Creek north of Highway 37, and
Castro Ditch, Pacheco Pond could experience increased salinity
Cheda Creek, and water level impacts, and therefore, habitat
impacts, in the long-term.
Corte Madera Channel,
Corte Madera Creek,
Corte Madera Outfall Channel,
Coyote Creek,
Deer Island Channel,
East Creek,
Estancia Ditch,
Gallinas Creek,
Glen Creek,
Glenwood Creek,
Greenbrae Creek,
High Canal/Irwin Creek,
King Mountain Creek (Brixon Creek),
Larkspur Creek,
Leveroni Ditch,
Low Canal,
Lynwood Slough,
Mabry Ditch,
Mahon Creek,
McAllister Creek,
Meadow Sweet Creek,
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 116
NATURAL RESOURCES needs may prove challenging as tides rise. Species
potentially located within the geographic extent of
scenario 5, when significant habitat changes could
occur, are listed in Table 41.
Mammals
According to the Department of Fish and Wildlife,
the following are recorded locations marine
mammals inhabit (does not include federal park
locations):
Sausalito Basin 3,
Strawberry Spit,
Corte Madera Ecological Reserve,
Angel Island, and
Castro Rocks.
Wildlife & Endangered Species Another vulnerable mammal in the study area is the
The most vulnerable species are those that use the Salt marsh harvest mouse. Salt marsh harvest mice
vulnerable habitats. Vulnerable habitats are are endangered because of habitat loss,
beaches, tidal marshes, freshwater streams and
ponds, eel grass beds in the intertidal zone. These
58
habitats offer feeding and breeding ground for The Marin Mammal Center Website. Harbor Seal. Accessed
several mammal, birds, and insects, and host Jan. 18, /2017. Last updated: Jan. 2017
http://www.marinemammalcenter.org/education/marine-
several rare and valued plants along Marins eastern mammal-information/pinnipeds/pacific-harbor-seal/ accessed.
shoreline. Several species, and/or their habitats, are 59
The Marin Mammal Center Website. Sea Otter. Accessed Jan.
protected under federal, state, or regional 18, 2017. Last updated: Jan. 2017
regulations. Meeting existing habitat goals and http://www.marinemammalcenter.org/education/marine-
mammal-information/sea-otter.html.
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 117
NATURAL RESOURCES 60
fragmentation, and alteration. These mice are only the federal list. The largest longfin smelt population
found in the marshes of Corte Madera; the Marin occurs in the San Francisco Estuary and
Peninsula and San Pablo Bay, typically in the upper Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. This species
half of tidal salt marshes and the adjacent uplands occupies bay waters throughout summer and
61
during high tides. Sea level rise would greatly moves into lower reaches of rivers in fall to
65
impact this species, especially if the mouses habitat spawn.
is trapped by development. If high inundation rates
occur in areas without upland habitat then
reproduction could be reduced or eliminated. This is
more likely an issue in the narrow valley outlets of
southern portion of the study area, than the larger
basins of the northern study area. Other potential
impacts of sea level rise include changes and shifts
in vegetation composition and the overtopping of all
intertidal vegetation by higher storm surges. Such
62
severe inundation could increase predation and
63
decrease reproductive success by flooding nests.
Fish
The two listed fish off the shores of the study are
the tide water goby and the longfin smelt. The
tidewater goby is listed as Endangered at state and Harbor Seal. Credit: Bay Nature
federal levels. Tidewater gobies are about two
inches in length, translucent with gray, green, and
brown. The tidewater gobys ideal habitat is a Table 41. Example Vulnerable Species
brackish estuary or marsh with shallow water, a
Ridgeway rail
sandy bottom, and cool temperatures. Tidewater
gobies are vulnerable to the introduction of non- Soft salty bird's-beak
native species and sudden increases in salinity White-rayed
levels.
64
As brackish waters push further and Federal: pentachaeta
further up narrow valleys during storms or the Endangered Salt-marsh harvest
highest tides, and existing habitats increase in mouse
salinity, the amount of suitable habitat could Tidewater goby
decrease significantly. The longfin smelt is listed as Chinook Salmon
threated on the California list and a candidate on Western snowy plover
Federal: Threatened California red-legged
60
Shell hammer, H. 2000. Salt Marsh Harvest Mouse. Pp. 219 frog
228 in Goals Project. 2000. Baylands Ecosystem Species and
Community Profiles: Life history and environmental Federal: Candidate Longfin smelt
requirements of key plants, fish and wildlife. Prepared by the Salt Marsh
San Francisco Bay Area Wetlands Ecosystem Goals Project.
P. R. Olson, editor. San Francisco Bay Regional Water Quality
Yellowthroat
Control Board, Oakland, California. Southern sea otter
Delta smelt
61
Goals Project. 2015. The Baylands and Climate Change: What
Others
We Can Do. Appendix 5.1 Salt Marsh Harvest Mouse.
Green Sturgeon
Ecosystem Baylands Habitat Goals Science Update 2015
prepared by the San Francisco Bay Area Wetlands Ecosystem Pacific Herring
Goals Project. California State Coastal Conservancy, Oakland, Steelhead
62
CA. Monarch Butterfly
Johnston, R. F. 1957. Adaptation of salt marsh mammals to
high tides. Journal of Mammalogy, 38:529-531. Source: California Natural Diversity Database
63
Hardaway. H. C. and J. R. Newman. 1971. Differential
responses of five species of salt marsh mammals to
65
inundation. Journal of Mammalogy, 52:818-820. Goals Project. 2015. The Baylands and Climate Change: What
64
Farallones Marin Sanctuary Association Website. Endangered We Can Do. Appendix 3.9 Longfin smelt. Ecosystem Habitat
Spotlight: Tidewater Gobi Updated 2005. Goals Science Update 2015 Baylands prepared by the San
http://www.farallones.org/e_newsletter/2008- Francisco Bay Area Wetlands Ecosystem Goals Project.
02/TidewaterGoby.htm Accessed Jan. 18, 2017. California State Coastal Conservancy, Oakland, CA.
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 118
NATURAL RESOURCES
Other important fish species that are sensitive Birds
changes in environmental conditions that could Shoreline wetlands, marshes, mudflats, and ponds
occur in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and/or provide valuable bird habitat. One of the largest
Richardsons Bays are: protected habitats is the San Pablo Bay National
Wildlife Refuge (SPBNWR) managed by United
Chinook salmon: These fish spend time in the State Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), which
ocean and migrate into freshwater rivers to connects to the Petaluma Marsh Wildlife Area
spawn. managed by California Department of Fish and
Delta smelt: Delta smelt are endemic to the Wildlife (CDFW), another extensive area of habitat to
Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta and the northeast. Both of these areas, and smaller
occupies s altwater habitats and spawns in marsh lands further south, are major winter-
freshwater. migration stopovers along the Pacific Flyway for
Green sturgeon: These large and long living fish waterfowl. Smaller shoreline habitats in southern
spend time in the ocean and migrate into Marin are also known to support vulnerable and
freshwater rivers to spawn every three to five valuable bird species.
years and can be found traveling through the
bay to breeding grounds in the Sacramento Listed bird species that could be found in or moving
River. through the eastern Marin shoreline are the
Pacific herring: The Pacific herring is typically Ridgways rail, the Western snowy plover, San Pablo
found in large schools. Adults breed in Bay National Wildlife Refuge. The Ridgways rail is
estuaries in shallow areas along shorelines. one of the largest rails in North America, very
Eggs are laid on kelp and eelgrass November secretive, and primarily lives in salt and brackish
through April. Richardson's Bay is considered marshes. The following locations are known to
a critical spot for spawning. support Ridgways rail populations:
Steelhead: A dults spend time in the ocean
and migrate into freshwater rivers to spawn, Richardsons Bay is known to support a small
after spending two to three years in the number of Ridgways rails.
Bothin Marsh Preserve, Mill Valley. I
66
ocean. San Francisco Bay is within the range
of two runs of steelhead. The marsh at the mouth of Gallinas Creek,
including China Camp, supports what appears to
be the largest population of Ridgways rails in
67
the North Bay.
The Corte Madera Ecological Reserve supports
one of the densest populations of Ridgways
68
rails in the northern San Francisco Bay.
66
Distribution and population trends for the Endangered California
Clapper Rail. State of the Estuary Conference, 26 October
2013, Oakland, CA.
Ridgway's Rail at High Tide. Credit: Chris Cochems 67
Goals Project. 2015. The Baylands and Climate Change: What
We Can Do. Baylands Ecosystem Habitat Goals Science
Update 2015 prepared by the San Francisco Bay Area
Wetlands Ecosystem Goals Project. California State Coastal
Conservancy, Oakland, CA. Pg. 156
68
Goals Project. 2015. The Baylands and Climate Change: What
We Can Do. Baylands Ecosystem Habitat Goals Science
Update 2015 prepared by the San Francisco Bay Area
Wetlands Ecosystem Goals Project. California State Coastal
Conservancy, Oakland, CA. Pg. 168
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 119
NATURAL RESOURCES
unique and valuable bird species common in the Plants
study area are: Numerous special status plants with habitats that
are expected to be vulnerable to sea level rise are:
California brown pelican: The California brown
pelican, the smallest species of pelican, forages Franciscan thistle,
within Richardsons Bay and may be present in Hairless popcornflower,
the study area. Marin western flax,
California least tern: The California least tern is Oregon polemonium,
the smallest of North American terns, has Point Reyes salty bird's beak,
nesting colonies in the San Francisco Bay, Tiburon buckwheat,
and may forage within Richardsons Bay. Tiburon paintbrush, and
Double-crested cormorant: Double-crested White-rayed pentachaeta.
69
Insects
Insects could also see impacts to their habitats that
directly impact their success at survival. The
Monarch butterfly, an orange and black
m ilkweed butterfly with a wingspan of 3.5 to 4
inches, could suffer from impacts to milkweed habitat
along the coast. Populations of monarch butterfly
are found in the San Francisco Bay region
especially during the winter months. The Mission
blue butterfly has a small a wingspan of 1 to 1.5
inches. They occur in coastal chaparral and 69
Prunuske Chatham, Inc. March 2016. Draft Biological
grassland habits and depend on lupine plants for the Resources Assessment: Dunphy Park Improvement Project
egg, larvae, and pupae life phases. The butterfly Sausalito, Marin County.
70
was documented at Fort Baker, though it was not Goals Project. 2015. The Baylands and Climate Change: What
We Can Do. Baylands Ecosystem Habitat Goals Science
detected in the 1984 and 1985 during last survey. Update 2015 prepared by the San Francisco Bay Area
Wetlands Ecosystem Goals Project. California State Coastal
Conservancy, Oakland, CA. Pg. 168
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 120
NATURAL RESOURCES
Table 42. Example Vulnerable Natural Resource Assets Ranked by Onset and Flooding at
MHHW
Near-term Medium-term Long-term
Location Asset
Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 5
Sausalito Swedes Beach Floods at existing high tides
Novato Scottsdale Marsh Floods at existing high tides
Unincorporated
Paradise Beach Park Floods at existing high tides
Tiburon
Mill Valley Bothin Marsh Floods at existing high tides
Corte Madera Ecological
Corte Madera Floods at existing high tides
Reserve
Corte Madera Triangle Marsh Floods at existing high tides
San Rafael Tiscornia Marsh Floods at existing high tides
Novato Bahia marshes Floods at existing high tides
State Park Angel Island State Park 141 1410 179
San Rafael Shoreline Open Space 103 111 254
Tiburon Pt. Tiburon Shoreline Park 8 88 116
Pt. San Pedro China Camp State Park 76 81 184
San Rafael John F. Mc Innis Park 76 86 106
Larkspur Piper Park 72 711 108
Santa Venetia Santa Venetia Marsh 7 710 911
San Pablo Bay Wildlife Refuge 69 72 19
Santa Venetia Santa Margarita Island 58 68 88
Sausalito Arques Shipyard & Marina 57 86 219
Sausalito Marina Plaza Harbor 57 86 219
Jean & John Starkweather
San Rafael 54 6 163
Shoreline Park
Bel Marin Keys Del Oro Park 52 58 89
Sausalito Dunphy Park 51 58 138
Bel Marin Keys Cavalia Cay Park 51 58 89
San Rafael Pickleweed Park 5 58 89
Cal Park wetlands at Corte
Larkspur 410 53 82
Madera Creek
Waldo Point Richardson Bay Marina 45 74 187
Larkspur Bon Air Landing Park 44 5 86
Pt. San Pedro McNears Beach Park 44 59 8
Belvedere Corinthian Yacht Club 4 43 11
Tiburon Mc Kegney Green 31 57 153
Tiburon Richardson Bay Lineal Park 0-3 1-37 1-15
Larkspur Remillard Park beach 211 36 62
Belvedere San Francisco Yacht Club 22 36 810
Tiburon Blackie's Pasture 0-9 54 129
Tiburon The Cypress Garden Park 7 14 44
Sausalito Sausalito Yacht Harbor 4 1 3
Paradise Cay Paradise Cay Yacht Harbor 2 16 310
San Rafael Lowrie Yacht Harbor 2 9 37
San Rafael Marin Yacht Club 1 16 39
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 121
NATURAL RESOURCES
Near-term Medium-term Long-term
Location Asset
Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 5
Sausalito Pelican Yacht Harbor No data No data No data
Strawberry Aramburu Wildlife Preserve No data No data No data
San Rafael San Rafael Yacht Harbor No data No data No data
San Rafael Beach Park 811 1110
Mill Valley Bayfront Park 83 4-116
Sausalito Schoonmaker Beach 72 101
Strawberry Brickyard Cove 611 911
Corte Madera Hal Brown Park 63 92
Strawberry Strawberry Point Tidal Area 51 81
Strawberry Seminary Marsh 44 81
Corte Madera Shorebird Marsh 53 109
Strawberry Strawberry Point Park 410 92
San Rafael Loch Lomond Marina 37 97
Sausalito Clipper Yacht Harbor 25 63
San Rafael San Rafael Yacht Club 22 57
Bel Marin Keys Montego Park 2 54
Sausalito Cass Gidley Marina 2 32
Larkspur Hamilton Park 10 39
Mill Valley Shelter Bay 2-9 6-110
Novato South Hamilton Park 116
Novato Deer Island Baylands 1010
Corte Madera Madera Gardens Lagoons 104
CA Fish & Wildlife Gallinas Creek 102
Corte Madera Town Park 910
Novato Rush Creek 810
Mill Valley Sycamore Park 86
Novato Slade Park 8
Bel Marin Keys Caribe Isle Park 76
Sausalito Tiffany Beach 74
Santa Venetia Castro Park 7
Santa Venetia Adrian Rosal Park 63
San Rafael Shoreline Pathway 510
Santa Venetia Pueblo Park 51
Tiburon Zelinsky Park 411
Tiburon Pt. Tiburon Marsh 410
San Rafael Schoen Park 44
Mill Valley Freeman Park 42
Strawberry Greenwood Cove 41
Corte Madera Ring Mountain 36
Mill Valley Hauke Park 36
Corte Madera Skunk Hollow Park 34
Tiburon Bel Aire Park 3
Larkspur Bon Air Landing Park 24
Corte Madera San Clemente Park No data No data
Marin Islands Ecological
Bayside Acres No data No data
Reserve
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 122
NATURAL RESOURCES
Near-term Medium-term Long-term
Location Asset
Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 5
North Novato Petaluma Marsh Ponds No data
Arroyo Corte Madera del
Mill Valley Water resource
Presidio
Larkspur High Canal Water resource
Larkspur Larkspur Creek Water resource
Larkspur Low Canal Water resource
Novato Novato Creek Water resource
Novato Petaluma River Water resource
Strawberry Salt Works Canal Water resource
San Rafael San Rafael Canal Water resource
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 123
NATURAL RESOURCES
Map 36. Northern Study Area Vulnerable Natural Resources
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 124
NATURAL RESOURCES
Map 37. Southern Study Area Vulnerable Natural Resources
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 125
NATURAL RESOURCES
Other Considerations
In addition, park maintenance costs could increase In the southern portion of the study area, primary
and substantial funding would be needed to relocate constraints would be:
or improve infrastructure due to the high degree of
scrutiny and environmental compliance required. US Highway 101,
These increased costs would be passed on to the An urbanized edge with roadways and
tax payers and park users, creating potential infrastructure that currently flood (e.g., Miller
disproportionate impacts across economic brackets. Avenue, Manzanita parking areas, the Mill
Valley sewer plant),
Estuaries, beaches, bluffs, marine wetlands, and
Northwestern Pacific railroad tracks,
marshes also provide ecosystem services as buffers
Erosion from the Golden Gate Ferry in Larkspur,
protecting development from waves and floods,
filtration systems for pollutants, provide oxygen, and Exotic predators (e.g., rats and red fox),
many others. Their loss could increase the cost of Invasive Spartina, and
On-site contaminants.
73
maintaining flood protection at the least.
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 126
activity. As tides rise, the available land area will be
reduced and increase the competition for resources.
Limited financial resources could reduce priorities for
wildlife protection, park maintenance, and
investment. Park management would be affected
because infrastructure within parks may become
inaccessible or degraded due to flooding and
saltwater exposure. Large amounts of funds would
be needed to relocate or improve infrastructure due
to the high degree of scrutiny and environmental
compliance that would be necessary. Making
improvements for public access or restoring habitats
would also need to be sensitive to the multiple
cultural sites relating to Coast Miwok habitation and
early European and Asian settlements in the
74
vulnerable portions of the study area.
74
Goals Project. 2015. The Baylands and Climate Change: What
We Can Do. Baylands Ecosystem Habitat Goals Science
Update 2015 prepared by the San Francisco Bay Area
Wetlands Ecosystem Goals Project. California State Coastal
Conservancy, Oakland, CA. Pg. 159
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 128
RECREATION
Table 43. Recreation Assets Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise at MHHW
M= Marin County Jurisdiction
Near-term Medium-term Long-term
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6
A 47 Parks 47 Parks 47 Parks 47 Parks 94 Parks 105 Parks
ll 287 Acres 718 Acres 510 Acres 810 Acres 1,084 Acres 1,222 Acres
Incorporated Jurisdictions
Belvedere
Belvedere
Community
Center
Mini Park
Triangle Marsh See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenarios 1 &
M
Susan Marker Bike Trail 5
Trail L M
Hal Brown Park
Corte Madera
Madera Gardens
Lagoons
M
Ring Mountain
Shorebird Marsh
Town Park
Skunk Hollow Park
Bon Air Landing Park See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenarios 1 &
M
Cal Park Wetland Heatherwood Park 5
Larkspur
Bayfront Park See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenarios 1 &
Mill Valley/ Sausalito Freeman Park 5
Mill Valley
M
Path Hauke Park Enchanted Knolls
Mill Valley Rec Park
Center
Sycamore Park
Bahia Mini Parks See scenario 5
Future Hamilton Scottsdale Marsh
Rec Area
Hamilton Airport
Park
Hamilton
Novato
Amphitheater
Park
Slade Park
Hamilton
Community
Center
South Hamilton
Park
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 129
RECREATION
Near-term Medium-term Long-term
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6
Beach Park See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenarios 1 &
Gallinas Creek Albert Park 5
San Rafael
Blackie's Pasture See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenario 1 Bel Aire Park See scenarios 1 &
McKegney Green Pt. Tiburon Marsh 5
Pt. Tiburon Zelinsky Park Pt. Tiburon Tennis
Tiburon
M
Pathway
Cavalia Cay Park See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenarios 1 &
Bahama Reef Boat Bel Marin Keys 5
Launch Public Dock
Dolphin Isle Boat Bel Marin Keys
Bel Main Keys
M
Launch
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 130
RECREATION
Near-term Medium-term Long-term
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6
M
Rush Creek See scenario 5
No. Novato
M
Deer Island
M
Santa Margarita See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenario 1 Pueblo Park See scenarios 1 &
Sta. Venetia
M M
Island Adrian Rosal Park 5
M
Santa Venetia Castro Park
M M
Marsh Candy's Park
Brickyard Cove See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenario 1
Community Park
Community Park
Strawberry
Boat Launch
Strawberry Point
M
Tidal Area
Strawberry Point
Park
M
Aramburu Island
John F. McInnis See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenario 1
St. Vincents
M
Park
Paradise Beach See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenario 1 See scenario 1
Tiburon
M
Park
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 131
RECREATION
Beaches Estuaries, Wetlands, & Marshes
Beaches are used for wildlife viewing, sunbathing, Primary recreational activities in estuarine areas
and accessing bay waters for swimming, kayaking, such as the shoreline areas of Richardson Bay, San
paddle boarding, and fishing. Sea level rise could Pablo Bay, and the San Francisco Bay, are hiking,
inundate existing beaches and increase rates of kayaking, paddle boarding, boating, bird watching,
shoreline erosion. This could potentially force beach fishing, swimming, and other passive forms of
recreation opportunities inland where beaches are recreation. Without a comparable increase in land
75
not impeded by development, roads, or bluffs. elevation from sediment delivery, these recreational
76,77
Beaches commonly used for recreation that could be areas could flood. Like beaches, estuaries can
vulnerable to sea level rise and storms include: be prevented from moving landward when bordering
development or cliffs. Vulnerable estuaries,
Schoonmaker Beach, Sausalito, wetlands, and marshes include:
Swedes Beach, Sausalito,
Tiffany Beach, Sausalito, Bothin Marsh, Mill Valley,
Private beaches in Tiburon, Santa Venetia Marsh,
Paradise Beach, Unincorporated Tiburon, Shorebird Marsh, Corte Madera,
Larkspur Landing Beach, Pt. Tiburon Marsh, and
Pt. San Quentin Beach (private), San Pablo Bay Wildlife Area, in the Bay off St.
Marin Rod & Gun Club, San Rafael, Vincents.
McNears Beach, Pt. San Pedro,
Brick Yard Beach, San Rafael,
China Camp State Park Beaches, and Freshwater Resources
McInnis Beach, San Rafael. In scenario 5, with 60 inches of sea level rise,
saltwater can travel miles inland up to, especially in
Corte Madera Creek and the Petaluma River. This
could significantly alter existing habitat and wildlife
viewing opportunities, and may require adapting to
create new opportunities. Creeks passing through
parks that could be impacted by sea level rise
include:
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 132
RECREATION
Larkspur Creek, above the current standard to be prepared for
Low Canal, uncertainties in the future. A few of these facilities
Lynwood Slough, depend on jetties or break walls to protect the boats
Mahon Creek within them. These structures may also need to
Marin City Stormwater Pond Channel, have elevation added to withstand higher tides.
Meadow Way Creek, Jetties are also prone to subsidence and erosion.
Miller Creek,
Arques Shipyard and Marina,
Nyhan Creek,
Buck's Landing,
Petaluma River,
Cass Gidley Marina,
Reed Creek,
Clipper Yacht Harbor,
Rush Creek,
Hi-Tide Boat Sales & Services,
Ryan Creek,
Loch Lomond Marina,
Salt Works Canal,
Lowrie Yacht Harbor,
San Rafael Canal,
Marin Yacht Club,
Sunny Oaks Drainage,
McNear Public Fishing Pier
Alto Shopping Center, and
Marina Plaza Harbor,
Wolfe Grade Creek.
Paradise Cay Yacht Harbor,
Pelican Yacht Harbor,
Petaluma River Public Fishing Access,
Federal Parks Richardson Bay Marina,
The National Park Service released Adapting to
San Rafael Yacht Club,
Climate Change in Coastal Parks: Estimating the
78 San Rafael Yacht Harbor,
Exposure of Park Assets to 1 m of Sea-Level Rise.
Note that the National Parks report uses a different Sausalito Marine,
methodology than this Assessment to determine Sausalito Yacht Harbor,
vulnerability. While outside of the study area for this Schoonmaker Point Marina, and
report, these federal park lands draw tourists and Travis Marina.
residents to and through Marins bay area. Their
report finds that high exposure to sea level rise
could impact 43 assets valued at $57,870,724 and According to Bucks Landing asset managers,
several recreational and habitat areas in the Marin monthly high tides that extend above the boat
County portion of the Golden Gate National launch could cause up to a 75 percent reduction in
Recreation Area. capacity.
Bay
Several open water recreation activities begin and
end on the shoreline. While activities themselves will
likely continue despite sea level rise, the facilities to
serve these water based activities may need to
adjust. These facilities include piers, harbors,
marinas, boat launches, and fishing piers. Boating
facilities using float systems for the docks and piers
versus hydraulic lifts will fare better. Piers that are
too short can be replaced, and ideally any project in
the near future would incorporate a few extra feet
78
McDowell Peek, Katie, R. S. Young, R. L. Beavers, C. Hawkins
Hoffman, B. T. Diethorn, S. Norton. Adapting To Climate
Change in Coastal Parks: Estimating the Exposure of Park
Assets to 1 m of Sea-Level Rise. Natural Resource Technical Mill Valley/Sausalito Multi-modal Pathway. Dec. 2014 King
Report NPS/NRSS/GRD/NRR2015/916. Tides. Credit: DPW
http://www.nature.nps.gov/geology/coastal/coastal_assets_rep
ort.cfm.
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 133
RECREATION
Sporting Facilities
In addition to the passive recreation, several sites
offer sporting facilities such as soccer fields,
baseball diamonds, tennis courts, and other
features. These facilities typically have electronic
centers to control lighting that could be vulnerable.
In most cases, only portions of a park are impacted.
At McInnis Park the miniature golf, batting cages,
driving range, and restaurant are not vulnerable.
However, the entrance to the facility is compromised
in the long-term and the creek side soccer fields are
impacted earlier. Other parks in this category
include:
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 134
RECREATION
To see list of potentially vulnerable roads, refer to Private Recreation
the Transportation Profile. Several of the previous shoreline recreation
activities are available and enhanced by private
service providers. These include hotels, boat
Map 38. Marin County Area Bay Trail suppliers, surfing schools, restaurants, markets,
tours, and several could be vulnerable to sea level
rise. Of the 35 or so hotels in eastern Marin, fifteen
could be vulnerable to regular high tides and storms.
Seaplane Adventures is also a unique asset that will
likely need to adjust to higher waters. Other major
examples of areas featuring private recreational
assets include:
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 135
RECREATION
Table 44. Example Vulnerable Recreation Assets Ranked by Onset and Flooding at MHHW
Near-term Medium-term Long-term
Location Asset
Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 5
Sausalito Swedes Beach Floods at existing high tides
Sausalito Tiffany Beach Floods at existing high tides
Novato Scottsdale Marsh Floods at existing high tides
Tamalpais Valley Bothin Marsh Floods at existing high tides
Unincorporated
Paradise Beach Park Floods at existing high tides
Tiburon
Sausalito GG Sausalito Ferry No data No data No data
State Park Angel Island State Park 141 1410 179
San Rafael Spinnaker Pt. open space 103 111 254
Tiburon Pt. Tiburon Shoreline Park 8 88 116
Pt. San Pedro China Camp State Park 76 81 184
San Rafael John F. McInnis Park 76 86 106
Larkspur Piper Park 72 711 108
Santa Venetia Santa Venetia Marsh 7 710 911
San Pablo Bay San Pablo Bay Wildlife Area 69 72 19
Santa Venetia Santa Margarita Island 58 68 88
Sausalito Arques Shipyard and Marina 57 86 219
Sausalito Marina Plaza Harbor 57 86 219
Starkweather Shoreline
San Rafael 54 6 163
Park
Larkspur Bay Trail 0-54 0-6 0-86
Bel Marin Keys Del Oro Park 52 58 89
Sausalito Dunphy Park 51 58 138
Bel Marin Keys Cavalia Cay Park 51 58 89
Bel Marin Keys Dolphin Isle Boat Launch 51 58 89
San Rafael Pickleweed Park 5 58 89
Downtown shops &
Tiburon 0-5 6-311 14-129
restaurants
Larkspur Cal Park Wetlands 410 53 82
Bel Marin Keys Bahama Reef Boat Launch 46 52 81
Waldo Point Richardson Bay Marina 45 74 187
Larkspur Bon Air Landing Park 44 5 86
Pt. San Pedro Mc Nears Beach Park 44 59 8
Belvedere Corinthian Yacht Club 4 43 11
Sausalito Shops & restaurants 36 46 116
San Rafael Open space off Bay Way 32 311 610
Tiburon Mc Kegney Green 31 57 153
Tiburon Richardson Bay Lineal Park 0-3 1-37 1-15
Larkspur Remillard Park 211 36 62
Black Point Black Point Boat Launch 28 310 7
San Rafael Bay Trail 0-23 0-3 0-103
Belvedere San Francisco Yacht Club 22 36 810
San Rafael San Rafael Yacht Harbor 12 4 104
Almonte Seaplane Adventures 9 2 5
San Rafael Lowrie Yacht Harbor 2 9 37
Tiburon The Cypress Garden Park 7 14 44
San Rafael Hi-Tide Boat Sales 6 34 85
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 136
RECREATION
Near-term Medium-term Long-term
Location Asset
Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 5
Corte Madera Corte Madera Creek Path 4 111 610
Sausalito Sausalito Yacht Harbor 4 1 3
Paradise Cay Paradise Cay Yacht Harbor 2 16 310
San Rafael Marin Yacht Club 1 16 39
Tiburon Blackie's Pasture 0-9 54 129
Tam Junction shops &
Tamalpais Valley 0-8 7-2 15-53
restaurants
Corte Madera San Clemente Park No data
San Rafael Open Space 025 92 122
San Rafael Beach Park 811 1110
Mill Valley Bayfront Park 83 4-116
Mill Valley Bay Trail 0-8 3-125
Almonte Charles F. McGlashan Path 76 108
Sausalito Schoonmaker Beach 72 101
Strawberry Brickyard Cove 611 911
Corte Madera Hal Brown Park 63 92
Peacock Gap Neighborhood
San Rafael 63 9
Park
Strawberry Recreation
Strawberry 511 811
District Boat Launch
Greenwood Cove area
Strawberry 54 10
community park
Corte Madera Shorebird Marsh 53 109
Strawberry Strawberry Point Tidal Area 51 81
Strawberry Strawberry Point Park 410 92
Seminary Marsh area
Strawberry 44 81
community park
San Rafael Loch Lomond Marina 37 97
Corte Madera Bay Trail 0-34 0-86
Sausalito Schoonmaker Point Marina 3'3" 8'2"
Sausalito Clipper Yacht Harbor 25 63
San Rafael San Rafael Yacht Club 22 57
Bel Marin Keys Montego Park 2 54
Sausalito Cass Gidely Marina 2 32
Downtown shops &
San Rafael 1-13 3-33
restaurants
San Rafael Pickleweed Park facilities 12 3
Larkspur Hamilton Park 10 39
Mill Valley Shelter Bay 2-9 6-110
Novato Bay Trail 0-8 0-127
Corte Madera Bay Trail County Rte 17 134
Corte Madera Higgins Dock 1110
Novato South Hamilton Park 116
Novato Deer Island 1010
Novato Hamilton Amphitheater Park 106
Corte Madera Madera Gardens Lagoons 104
San Rafael Gallinas Creek 102
Novato Hamilton Airport Park 10
Corte Madera Town Park 910
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 137
RECREATION
Near-term Medium-term Long-term
Location Asset
Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 5
San Rafael Albert Park 93
Novato Rush Creek 810
Sausalito Turney Street Boat Ramp 88
Mill Valley Sycamore Park 86
Larkspur Heatherwood Park 82
Novato Slade Park 8
Novato Hamilton Community Center 8
Novato Future Hamilton Rec. Area 76
Corte Madera Susan Marker Trail 12-76
Bel Marin Keys Caribe Isle Park 74
Bel Marin Keys Calypso Bay Public Dock 74
Bel Marin Keys Bel Marin Keys Dock 74
Bel Marin Keys Bel Marin Keys Yacht Club 74
Santa Venetia Castro Park 611
Novato Bahia Mini Parks 69
Santa Venetia Candy's Park 63
Santa Venetia Adrian Rosal Park 510
Belvedere Mini Park 53
San Rafael Canal/ Shoreline Park 51
Santa Venetia Pueblo Park 411
Tiburon Zelinsky Park 410
Tiburon Pt. Tiburon Marsh 44
Belvedere Community Center 44
San Rafael Schoen Park 42
Mill Valley Freeman Park 41
Strawberry Baseball diamonds 310
Mill Valley Mill Valley Rec Center 36
Corte Madera Ring Mountain 36
Mill Valley Hauke Park 34
Tiburon Bay Trail 6-3
Corte Madera Skunk Hollow Park 3
Sausalito Yee Tock Chee Park 211
Sausalito Bay Trail 7-23
Tiburon Bel Aire Park 24
Larkspur Bon Air Landing Park 24
Fort Baker Travis Marina 410
Black Point Golf Course No data
Santa Venetia Buck's Landing No data
Sausalito Pelican Yacht Harbor No data
Larkspur Marin Country Mart Access issues only
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 138
RECREATION
Map 39. Northern Study Area Vulnerable Recreation Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 139
RECREATION
Map 40. Southern Study Area Vulnerable Recreation Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 140
RECREATION
Other Considerations
Management
Protecting public access to natural resources and
wildlife is a state and local priority. However, as
Marin residents daily lives become more and more
vulnerable, preserving recreation opportunities could
become a lower priority. National priorities could also
affect Marin public lands and sanctuaries under
federal jurisdiction.
Paddle boarder on Miller Avenue in Bothin Marsh. Credit:
79
BCDC Vulnerability Assessment. Unknown
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 141
EMERGENCY SERVICES
Asset Profile: Emergency Services
Marins Bay communities are susceptible to IMPACTS AT-A-GLANCE: SCENARIO 6
earthquakes, tsunamis, fires, and more. Sea level
rise could create additional hazardous conditions Tens of thousands of residents, millions of
and impede emergency response. In fact, the visitors
primary vulnerability in the emergency services Corte Madera Fire Station
sector is continued safe and timely access to people 13 Property Owners
in need. In addition to this, several service providers San Rafael Fire Station 54 Office of
could face additional threats from sea level rise. Novato Fire Station 2 Emergency
Tiburon Fire Station Services
CHP headquarters Fire Departments
Sheriff Two rescue boats County Sheriff
The primary issue with the Sherriff would likely be Emergency Access CHP
access to places in need of services during storms. Routes Municipal Police
In addition, the Marine Patrol keeps Rescue Boat 1 Hydrants EMT providers
moored at Richardson Bay Marina, at 100 Gate 6 Emergency water Supplies
Road, Sausalito. Rescue Boat 2 on a trailer at Loch
Lomond Marina in San Rafael. These facilities are
on the water and are thus vulnerable to storm
damage at any given time. Loch Lomond Marina
main jetty wall could be overtopped by tidal flooding
by near-term scenario 1. Interior portions of the
marina may be less vulnerable than the model
estimates due to recent construction elevating the
site. Richardson Bay Marin is vulnerable to tidal
flooding on the jetties, or pathways to the boat slips,
by near-term scenario 1 and is nearly entire
compromised by long-term scenario 5.
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 142
EMERGENCY SERVICES
Storm surges in scenario 6 almost reach Southern Army Corps of Engineers Bay Model Visitors
Marin Fire District Headquarters and station 14 in Center, Sausalito,
Corte Madera. Stations 52 and 55 in San Rafael Belvedere City Community Center,
could also face access issues. Finally, disruptions in Corte Madera Community Center,
water supply and corroding of reserve tanks could Henry Hall Middle School, Larkspur,
compromise fire service. This is primarily a concern Kent Middle School, Kentfield (storm surge
in the northern half of the study area where NMWD only),
has reserve emergency water tanks. Mill Valley Middle School,
MLK Gym Sausalito Parks and Recreation,
Marin City (storm surge only),
Local Police Neil Cummins Elementary School, Corte
Very few facilities are impacted directly. However, Madera,
the Central Marin Police Authority building, serving Pickleweed Park Facilities, San Rafael,
San Anselmo, Corte Madera and Larkspur could St. Andrews Presbyterian Church, Marin City
become an island as the lands around it flood in the (storm surge only),
long-term. Flooding south of the station on Doherty Strawberry Point Elem School,
Drive, in Larkspur, is already an issue during high Strawberry Recreation Center (storm surge
tides and storms. The increased saltwater on roads only),
around the station could lead to faster corrosion of
Tamalpais High School, Mill Valley (access
the patrol SUVs. The Sausalito Police Departments
only),
two boats, Marine 1, berthed at Schoonmaker
Westminster Presbyterian Church, Strawberry,
Marina, and Marine 2, berthed at the US Army Corps
of Engineer's dock in Sausalito could also be Belvedere City Hall, and
vulnerable to storms damage and access to the Tiburon Town Hall.
boats could be difficult if tides are too high. If the
marina facilities float systems are not adequately
elevated to handle higher tides, the boats could be Other
held under water. Lastly, the emergency fuels reserves at Larkspur
Landing are also vulnerable to sea level rise. Some
of this fuel is used for day to day operations;
California High Patrol (CHP) however, the majority of the fuel is the North Bay
Other than access issues, the Marin CHP emergency reserve. If high enough tides overtop the
Headquarters on San Clemente Drive in Corte berm and get trapped in the fuel farm containment
Madera could face flooding impacts as early as area, where two tanks store nearly 400,000 gallons
scenario 3 in the medium-term. The building itself of diesel fuel the saltwater could accelerate
already experiences subsidence of the fill below. corrosion. Not only is this region wide resource
When the site starts to see regular flooding, patrol threatened, the bay could be contaminated with fuel
cars may see increased corrosion from exposure to and other chemicals. Finally, for all of these
saltwater. The property also has fuel tanks at-grade services, if these public servants are unable to
and two stormwater pumps that could become access their job sites, they would not be able to
burdened. The auto shop with lift equipment, perform their duties in times of need and could leave
computer electronic systems, evidence room, and communities at a loss.
reports and sensitive paper data would be impacted
if flood waters reach into the facility.
Table 45 lists some of the potentially vulnerable
emergency service assets related assets in the
study area. This list measures onset and tidal
Emergency Shelters MHHW. And the maps on the following pages
Several schools and churches double as emergency
highlight where vulnerable emergency facilities exist.
shelters because they have capacity to house many
The areas in the call out circles enable the reader
people, offer refrigeration for medications, and have
the see areas that are difficult to see on the large
backup generators. The facilities that could be
scale map. The circles do not indicate that these
vulnerable under these scenarios include:
areas are more vulnerable than others along the
shoreline.
Bahia Vista Elementary School, San Rafael,
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 143
EMERGENCY SERVICES
Several facilities may only be impacted during Strawberry Point Elementary School
scenario 6, indicating that they could experience Strawberry Recreation Center
storm surge flooding. These assets include: Corte Madera Fire Station 13
Novato Fire Protection Administrative Services,
Belvedere Community Center and
Southern Marin Fire Station, Sausalito Kent Middle School, Kentfield.
St. Andrews Presbyterian Church, Marin City
Table 45. Example Emergency Service Assets Ranked by Onset and Flooding at MHHW
Near-term Medium-term Long-term
Location Asset
Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 5
San Rafael Fire Station No. 54 1'6" 2'7" 6'7"
San Rafael Bahia Vista Elementary School 8 23 48
Corte Madera Neil Cummins Elementary School 25 66
San Rafael Pickleweed Community Center 12 3
Tiburon Fire Station 1 26
Larkspur Henry Hall Middle School, 6 12
Novato Fire Station 62 5" 1'
Mill Valley Mill Valley Rec Center 310
Waldo Point Sheriff Water Rescue Moored in Richardson Bay
Sausalito Rescue Boat Moored in Richardson Bay
Corte Madera Recreation Center Access Issues
San Rafael Fire Station No. 52 Access Issue
San Rafael Fire Station No. 55 Access Issue
Source: MarinMap, OCOF Exposure and Flood Depth data, Asset Manager Interviews
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EMERGENCY SERVICES
Map 41: Northern Study Area Vulnerable Emergency Service Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 145
EMERGENCY SERVICES
Map 42: Southern Study Area Vulnerable Emergency Service Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 146
EMERGENCY SERVICES Management
Other Considerations
Protecting emergency services will require
coordination amongst federal, state, county and
Economic local agencies. Sea level rise planning efforts should
Lack of emergency services or access for collaborate with Local Hazard Mitigation Plans and
emergency services could lead to injury or death, the Office of Emergency Services to ensure
which could result in costly medical expenses, death emergency response systems and ammenities are
related expenses and cause financial complications planned with the consideration of sea level rise.
for dependents of the victims.
The Marin County Sheriffs Department established
the Office of Emergency Services (OES) to
coordinate efforts to develop disaster-resistant
Environmental
communities and to educate residents on
Lack of fire services or access could prevent
emergency preparedness. In the event of a major
adequate protection of homes or entire communities.
emergency or disaster, the OES has established a
Wildfire may be able to consume greater acreages if
fully functional centralized Emergency Operations
local and fire roads are compromised. If the
Center (EOC). The County maintains an Emergency
emergency fuel tanks are compromised due to sea
Operations Plan to provide preparation and agency
level rise or storms, the bay could become
response to disasters that threaten the health or
contaminated as well.
property of residents and businesses.
Simultaneously, the plan recognizes that in the first
72 hours following a major event, community
Social Equity members must be self-sufficient.
Losing public emergency services could impact all
residents of and visitors to the potentially flooded In addition, the Marin County Local Hazard
areas. However, certain demographic factors may Mitigation Plan (LHMP) was developed to meet the
increase an individuals vulnerability in the face of an requirements of the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000
emergency. The Association of Bay Area and maintain eligibility for certain FEMA hazard
Governments identifies several indicators that mitigation programs. Strategies focus on safety and
reduce a communitys ability to prepare for, respond protection during earthquakes, fires, floods, and
to, and recover from major disasters. These include: other disasters with high priority mitigation projects
identified. The LHMP is currently being updated with
Low educational attainment an effort to reflect the full scope of hazard issues
Transit dependence (persons without vehicles) including climate change impacts.
Non-English speakers
Young children and aging adults Relevant programs of the Marin Countywide Plan
Significant housing cost burden and local general plans include: maintain effective
Household income communication systems, maintain adequate
80
Home ownership. response resources, distribute public information,
conduct disaster awareness efforts, promote
Loss or compromised emergency services could be community involvement, locate emergency facilities
more devastating to communities with higher appropriately, promote agency emergency planning,
populations that fall into these demographic and develop evacuation plans.
categories, such as Marin City or the Canal
neighborhoods in San Rafael. In fact, the Castro
Street Fire Station that serves the neighborhood
could flood tidally itself in the near-term, and access
from the next closest fire stations could be blocked
entirely at high tide in the medium-term,
compounding this area vulnerability.
80
Bay Conservation and Development Commission and
Association of Bay Area Governments. Creating Safe Growth
Strategies for the San Francisco Bay Area. 2015
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CULTURAL RESOURCES
Asset Profile: Cultural Resources
Marin County is rich with history. Miwok Native
IMPACTS AT-A-GLANCE: SCENARIO 6
Americans inhabited the area for thousands of
years and around 600 identified village sites remain More than 90
81
throughout the county. In the early 1800s, historic buildings
Archaeological Resources
Mexican governors of Alta California issued 21 land in private
grants and founded the Mission San Rafael ownership
Arcngel as a hospital to treat Native Americans
82
dying of introduced diseases. The Gold Rush 6 National
increased demand for beef and dairy, leading Register of Public Sites in State and
migrants to settle in Marin, establishing ranches Historic Places Federal Parkland
83
and businesses. New ferries, trains, and bridges Sites
enabled more access allowing bayside State Parks
communities to become commercial fishing, water National Park Service
based recreation and vacation hubs, as well as Lack of Local jurisdictions
84
homes for commuters working in San Francisco . comprehensive Marin County
surveys Property Owners
Many of Marins Bayside towns have maintained Graton Rancheria
their historic characters and downtowns with Federated Indians
architectural styles including Shingle Style, Arts and
Crafts, Mission Revival, Italianate, and Modern.
Julia Morgan, Bernard Maybeck, Willis Polk, Frank
Lloyd Wright and Joseph Eichler are amongst the
85
renowned architects who built in Marin County.
Sea level rise could impact valued cultural sites in
the study area. The following are key
vulnerabilities related to cultural resources:
81
Wikipedia, Marin County California. Last updated July 3, 2016.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marin_County,_California#History
82
Futcher, Jane. 1981. Marin, The Place, The People.
83
Futcher, Jane. 1981. Marin, The Place, The People.
84
Marin County Community Development Agency. 2007. Marin
Countywide Plan.
85
Ibid.
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 148
CULTURAL RESOURCES
Vulnerable Assets Direct/Intangible: Irreplaceable loss of cultural
Cultural resources can be defined as physical heritage from deterioration/destruction of
89
evidence or place of past human activity: site, building or artifacts contained within building
Indirect/Tangible: Loss of tourism revenue
90
object, landscape, structure; or a site, structure,
Indirect/Intangible: Loss of sense of place.
91
landscape, object or natural feature of significance
to a group of people traditionally associated with
86
it. Cultural resources analyzed in this Due to available information, this Profile focuses on
assessment are archaeological sites and locally, direct/tangible losses, primarily structural damage
state, and federally recognized historical structures. to historic buildings. Tourism revenue is not
available for all of the sites therefore;
Key resources include historic districts in Sausalito, indirect/tangible losses cannot be fully assessed.
Belvedere, Tiburon, San Rafael, Hamilton in Additionally, while loss of any of the sites will likely
Novato, and China Camp State Park. Often hubs have negative cultural identity and sense of place
for local businesses and heritage tourism, historic impacts, quantifying these intangible losses is a
districts can play an important role in community challenge with no known U.S. precedents, and is
economic development and sustainability. Historic beyond the scope of this report.
sites may contribute to local sense of place,
community character, and cultural identity. A handful of the vulnerable historic sites including
Historical sites can serve as museums or China Camp State Parks Shrimp Shed, Marinships
interpretive centers for educational purposes. Bay Model Visitor Center and Hamilton Army Air
Environmentally, the continued use of older Field Fire House house museum collections open
buildings is generally much more energy efficient to the public with artifacts of historical interest.
than new construction, thus helping to reduce National Park Services 2016 Cultural Resources
87
greenhouse gas emissions. Archaeological sites Climate Change Strategy compiles possible types
can provide scientific data such as plant and animal of impacts to museum collections from increased
species that thrived under past climactic conditions flooding, inundation, increased storm surge,
92
which could useful in informing future natural shoreline erosion and more. Amongst these
resource management plans. impacts collections could face increased rusting,
corrosion, rot, mold, mildew, insect attacks,
When assessing historical building vulnerabilities, swelling, direct damage/destruction, and
93
many of the same physical factors can be damage/destruction from humidity and moisture.
considered which apply to all buildings, historic or
none (see Table 23, physical vulnerabilities of A historic resource inventory for unincorporated
buildings). However, unique considerations for Marin does not exist. To date, Marin Countys
historic buildings include: Architectural Commission has identified only one
94
historic structure, though it is outside the study
Direct/Tangible: area for this assessment.
o Increased sensitivity due to age/condition
leading to more severe physical damage to
88
building fabric. Archaeological Sites
o Damage or destruction to character defining The State of California recognizes 630
features archaeological sites in Marin County including
o Damage or destruction of historic artifacts permanent settlements, seasonal camps, hunting
within the building camps/special use sites, and petroglyphs covering
thousands of years of Miwok Indian history. The
89
ibid
90
ibid
86 91
National Park Service website. Last updated July 22, 2016. ibid
92
www.nps.gov/acad/learn/management/rm_culturalresources.h Rockman, Marcy, Marissa Morgan, Sonya Ziaja, George
tm Hambrecht, Alison Meadow. 2016. Cultural Resources
87
National Trust for Historic Preservation. 2011. The Greenest Climate Change Strategy. Cultural Resources, Partnerships,
Building: Quantifying the Environmental Value of Building and Science and Climate Change Response Program,
Reuse. National Park Service.
88 93
Stephenson, V. and DAyala, D. A New Approach to Flood ibid, 22-23
94
Vulnerability Assessment for Historic Buildings in England Bill Kelley and Marty Zwick (Marin County Architectural
(2014), 1036. Commission), personal communications July 2016.
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CULTURAL RESOURCES
Anthropological Studies Center at Sonoma State
98
sufficiently trained staff. . Therefore, it is important
University is currently inventorying additional sites to conduct cultural resource surveys prior to
99
in anticipation of sea level rise and erosion. The inundation to document what will be lost.
blue lines depicted in Map 43 represent sixty-nine
miles of surveyed public lands, and eight miles are National Park Services 2016 Cultural Resources
partially surveyed. The complete surveys are Climate Change Strategy also compiles possible
limited to the public lands generally in West Marin. types of impacts to archaeological sites from
Much of the southern Marin shoreline is not increased flooding, inundation, increased storm
applicable for the survey, as depicted in red. The surge, shoreline erosion and more. In addition to
marshlands in Corte Madera and Larkspur, China total submersion, sites could be vulnerable from
Camp State Parks, and St. Vincents to Bel Marin direct physical flood damage, destruction/loss of
Keys could feature archeological sites. artifacts, post-flood subsidence, changes in pH,
100
disturbance during flood clean-up, and more.
Specific locations of archaeological sites must
remain confidential and Marin County CDA does A full assessment was conducted for Point Reyes
not have a staff archaeologist to maintain and National Seashore in 2013, factoring in topography
protect this sensitive information. Furthermore and elevation, proximity to the ocean, underlying
without allocated staff or financial resources, CDAs substrate, potential climate change impacts (e.g.
capability to conduct a comprehensive vulnerability inundation, wave erosion, sedimentation, etc.) and
assessment of archaeological sites is limited. other factors. This assessment gave every site a
However, Marin County has limited geographic and rating of either high (should be mitigated within next
descriptive data that can be used to develop 10 years) or low (should be mitigated within next 50
generalities on potential impacts. Based on the years). A more comprehensive survey such as this
Countys limited available spatial data, 19 sites would need to be conducted for East Marin to fully
could be vulnerable spanning all of the scenarios. assess the vulnerability of archaeological
Most of the sites are at or near the edge of the Bay. resources.
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CULTURAL RESOURCES
Map 43. Archaeological surveying in Marin
County
Fort Baker
National Register of Historic Places
Vulnerable Resources: Seawall, Marine Hoist and
Dock, Refueling Dock and Marine Railway
Scenarios: All
Flood Depths: 0-710+100-year storm surge
Primary Building Materials: Concrete, Wood, Steel
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CULTURAL RESOURCES
rapidly as a shipbuilding center. The Downtown Marinship, Sausalito
Historic District centers on a ferry terminal with Potential National/State Register Sites
service to/from San Francisco, and remains an Vulnerable Resources: 10 potential historic resources
important area for commerce, and as a popular Scenarios: All
visitor destination. The district is a National Park Flood Depths: 21 - 28+100-year storm surge; flood
101
Service Certified Historic District. depth data limited
Primary Building Materials: Concrete, wood, stucco,
Sea level rise is projected to inundate parts of steel
Sausalitos Downtown Historic District in the near-
term, with storms expanding the vulnerable area The former Marinship yard, an approximately 210-
and exacerbating impacts. At the long-term acre site, was one of six Emergency Shipyards in
scenario with a 100-year storm surge, 26 the San Francisco Bay Area established during
contributing sites could be vulnerable. Further World War II. Marinship was built on bay fill, and
analysis could determine specific vulnerability of some areas, such as Heath Way, have experienced
each building based on location, flood depth, height approximately five feet of subsidence since 1943
102
above grade, materials, etc. based on photographic records. In 2010, the
Marinship Historic Context Statement inventoried
Sausalitos Historic Preservation Regulations and recorded every major World War II era building
include preservation and treatment guidelines and and structure. The effort concluded:
standards for historic buildings and properties.
Current regulations do not address flooding, Marinship retains a higher degree of
through future updates could consider the need for architectural integrity then any of the other Bay
adaptation strategies necessary for flood protection
Area World War II emergency shipyards,
and identify design approaches to minimize
integrity impacts. Eight surviving buildings could form a California
Register eligible district in the southernmost
Both water and land access routes to Sausalitos portion of the district,
Downtown Historic District could be vulnerable in Two sites are individually eligible for the
the near term. GGFs Sausalito Ferry could face
National Register of Historic Place, and
inundation in the near-term; however, because the
facility is bayside of mean sea level delineation, Four sites are individually eligible for the
flood depth values are not provided. In the long- California Register of Historic Places.
term, parts of Bridgeway could be tidally flooded,
and impacts will worsen with storms. These sites were never nominated for national or
state historic registers, and therefore have no
In other parts of Sausalito, a handful of private formal historic status. However, these resources
properties on the citys Historic Resources can be considered potential historic resources.
Inventory could also be vulnerable at varying
scenarios. Sausalitos Ark Row District includes In the near term, shipways that are part of Building
seven noteworthy properties, vulnerable to more 23, the Marinship Shipways and Offices, could be
than 6 feet MHHW in the near-term and more than vulnerable to the increased 10 inches of sea level
9 feet in the long-term. An additional ten other rise. More detailed analysis would be necessary to
properties could be vulnerable in the long-term, fully evaluate integrity impacts that may occur.
including the original firehouse (8 of the 10 only
subject to storms). Lastly, two of Sausalitos In the long-term, two buildings, the Marinship
landmark buildings, Castle by the Sea and Ice Maintenance Garage and the Marinship Mold Loft
House, could be vulnerable to storms by the long- and Yard Office, could be vulnerable to tidal
term scenarios. flooding at depths deeper than two feet. Both
buildings were erected in 1942 with cinderblock
construction and could be vulnerable to standing
water. The Mold Loft could be eligible for the
California Register, and the Maintenance garage
could support a California register-eligible district.
101 102
Office of Historic Places, accessed July 14, 2016. Robin Petravic (Heath Ceramics), personal communications.
http://ohp.parks.ca.gov/?page_id=27283 July 2016.
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CULTURAL RESOURCES
Seven other properties could be vulnerable to the is along this vulnerable waterfront. This saloon
100-year storm surge by the long-term scenario was once housed by the S.S. China, built in
including Building 29, the Marinship Warehouse. 1866 to carry passengers from San Francisco
105
This building now serves as the Bay Model Visitors to Asia.
Center which houses the U.S. Army Corps of The Belvedere Presbyterian Church/City
Engineers Bay Model, a working hydraulic scale Hall/Community Center.
103
model of the SF Bay-Delta, completed in 1957.
The model is no longer used for research, but open
to the public for educational purposes.
Belvedere
Historic Resource Inventory database and local register
Vulnerable resources: 1 California Register of Historic
Places site, 4 additional locally registered historic sites
Scenarios: All
Flood Depths: 6- 32 + 100-year storm surge
Primary Building Materials: Wood The 1905 Belvedere Land Company building, designed by
Albert Far. 106
Originally a fishing community adjacent to the
Tiburon railroad, Belvedere was settled in the late
th 104
19 century and incorporated in 1896. Tiburon
Vulnerable historic resources in Belvedere include: Local Historic Inventory for Downtown Tiburon/List of
Buildings Included and Eligible for California State
Properties on Beach Road, along the northwest Historic Building Code
edge of Belvedere Cove are exposed, including National Register of Historic Places (Peter Donahue
several in the near term. A handful of these Building)
properties were designed by well-known Vulnerable Resources: 21 buildings
architect Albert Farr including the Farr Scenarios: All
cottages/Farr apartments and the Belvedere Flood Depths: 14 - 86+100-year storm surge
Land Company. Additionally, the China Cabin Primary Building Materials: Wood
103
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Bay Model. Last updated
105
August 18, 2016. Belvedere-Tiburon Landmarks Society, China Cabin.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Army_Corps_of_Engineers_Bay_ Accessed January 18, 2017.
Model landmarkssociety.com/landmarks/china-cabin/
104 106
Belvedere, CA. Last updated January 9, 2017. Albert L. Farr. Last updated October 10, 2016.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belvedere,_California en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_L._Farr
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CULTURAL RESOURCES
Vulnerable historic sites include more than 20 Francisco and North Pacific Railroad Station House-Depot
buildings along upper and lower Main Street. Built National Register of Historic Places Nomination Form
in the 1920s, original uses included saloons,
apartments, a bank, hotel, grocery store, and
butcher. Then and now, commercial uses provide
commuters and visitors using the Tiburon Ferry
Terminal with shops and restaurants. Several lower
Main Street sites could be subject to tidal
inundation in the near-term. Upper Main Street
sites are subject to storm surge flooding in the long-
term. Existing flood proofing and site improvements
may help reduce building sensitivities and increase
flood resiliency.
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CULTURAL RESOURCES
Larkspur last Spanish mission Spanish established in
Larkspur Historic Resources Inventory California was erected in 1817. In 1879, the San
Vulnerable Resources: 6 homes Francisco and North Pacific Railroad reached San
Scenarios: All Rafael. The national rail network linked with San
Flood Depths: 11 - 68+100-year storm surge Rafael in 1888 leading to increased settlement and
109
Primary Building Materials: Wood economic growth.
Six vulnerable historic homes lie along Boardwalk San Rafaels exposed historic resources could be
one, the only remaining of the four original vulnerable to both tidal flooding and 100 year storm
communities of arks, or small canal homes flooding from San Rafael Creek, generally in close
accessed with boardwalks above the marshland. proximity to US Highway 101. Resources include
Many of the homes have had alterations and the Litchfield Sign (local landmark), the French
additions compromising the original defining Quarter, two potentially historic areas (Ritter Street
features, though still retain historical character and Gerstle Park (partial), and four potentially
through features including size, materials, scale, historic structures.
108
color, etc.
San Rafael
San Rafael Historical/Architectural Survey & Historic China Camp State Park
Properties List National Register of Historic Places
Vulnerable Resources: 1 Landmark, 1 District, at Vulnerable Resources: Shrimp Shed and 305 Pier
minimum 2 additional potentially historic areas, at Scenarios: All
minimum 4 additional potentially historic buildings Flood Depths: 0-100+100-year storm surge
Scenarios: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 Primary Building Materials: Wood
Flood Depths: 0 to 6+100-year storm surge Historic American Landscape Survey: Underway
Primary Building Materials: Wood, Brick
China Camp was once home to Miwok Indians who
Much like other communities in Marin, San Rafael settled there due to its pristine salt marshes and
was once home to Miwok Indians prior to European Point San Pedros ideally positioned vantage point.
settlement. The Mission San Rafael Arcngel, the This site is also the only remaining historic
108 109
City of Larkspur. 2005. Historic Resources Survey Re- Wikipedia, San Rafael, California. Last updated December
evaluation 15, 2016. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Rafael,_California
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CULTURAL RESOURCES
Chinese-American shrimp village in the Bay Area.
In the late 1800s China Camp housed around 500
residents, many from Canton, who made a living in
shrimp harvesting. The shrimp were typically dried
on the banks and shipped back to China for
medicinal purposes. Both racially motivated
legislation and environmental changes led to the
decline of shrimping practices. However, several of
the historic structures have remained structurally
intact and a seventy-five acre district encompassing
them was added to the National Register of Historic
Places in 1979. Also included in the district is a
Native American shellmound. Finally, a Historic
American Landscape Survey (HALS) is currently
underway to document the sites historic
110
resources.
Vulnerable structures at China Camp include the China Camp drying grounds. 1889. Credit: Wikipedia.
wood-framed shrimp shed and 305 foot pier along
its waterfront. Flood depths could reach up to 10
feet of tidal water potentially drowning the pier and
damaging both resources. The Shrimp Shed
currently serves a visitor center with interpretive
panels and artifacts educating the public on the
early immigrant history, traditional fishing practices
and more. These historic artifacts could also be
damaged as the building is flooded. Erosion could
further exacerbate impacts to the site, damaging
cultural landscape features such as the beach
itself. Furthermore, North San Pedro Road through
China Camp currently gets flooded at king tides,
compromising public and maintenance access. This
may worsen with higher sea levels.
110
Patillo, C. China Camp HALS. Last updated July 1, 2012.
http://halsca.blogspot.com/2012/07/china-camp-hals.html
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CULTURAL RESOURCES
111
in the nation. The site was transferred to the US
Navy, Army and Coast Guard in 1974, and is now
part of Novato. Currently buildings house a variety
of residential and commercial uses.
111
Maniery, M.L., and C.L. Baker. 1998. National Register of
Historic Places Registration Form Hamilton army Air Field
Discontiguous Historic District.
112
Ibid.
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CULTURAL RESOURCES
Table 47. Vulnerable Cultural Resource Assets Ranked by Onset and Flooding at MHHW
Near-term Medium-term Long-term
Location Asset
Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 5
Confidential 14 sites @ 111-108
Archaeological sites 3 sites 5 sites
locations
Four Waterfront Properties along
Belvedere 6 13 3032
Beach Road
Sausalito Ark Row District 36-62 31-610 61-95
Pt. San Pedro China Camp Historic District* 0-73 0-78 0-100
Larkspur Boardwalk # 1 11-31 110-310 47-68
Fort Baker* National Recreation Area 0-45 0-52 0-710
Angel Island Angel Island* Ferry Terminal 0-3 0-11 0-69
4 sites @ 0-94
4 sites
Sausalito Downtown Historic District* 4 sites (22 sites w/ storm
surge)
w/ storm
San Rafael The Litchfield Sign 33 60
surge
San Rafael The French Quarter District 22-24
2 potentially historic areas and at
San Rafael minimum 4 additional potentially 0-211
historic structures
Noteworthy structures outside 2 sites @ 14-61
Sausalito
the Downtown Historic District (8 sites w/ storm surge)
2 resources @ 21-28
Sausalito Marinship potential resources 1 resource (7 resources w/ storm
surge)
Novato Hamilton Army Air Field* Area C 25-04
*indicates listing on National Register of Historic Places
Source: MarinMap; CoSMoS, Marin CDA; City of Sausalito, Historic Resource Inventory Listing, Marinship Historic Context
Statement; Local Historic Inventory for Downtown Tiburon; China Camp National Register of Historic Places Inventory Nomination
Form; Update of the Historic Resources Inventory (Larkspur); Fort baker, Barry and Cronkhite National Register of Historic Places
Inventory Nomination Form; Sausalito Historic District National Register of Historic Places Inventory Nomination Form; City of
Sausalito, Historic Resource Inventory Listing; Historic Properties List (San Rafael); San Rafael Historical/Architectural Survey;
Marinship Historic Context Statement; National Register of Historic Places Registration Form Hamilton Army Air Field
Discontiguous Historic District; City of Belvedere General Plan Update Cultural Resources.
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115
Other Considerations construction. Materials production and transport,
building construction, and demolition waste disposal
all yield environmental impacts, which could be
Economic avoided through preserving/protecting existing
Historic preservation has proven to be an effective buildings.
tool for small business sustainability, community
development, renewal, and revitalization, heritage
113 Social Equity
tourism development, and more. Several of
Marins vulnerable historical areas house local In addition to losing valuable historic information
businesses important to economic wellbeing. Loss about the region, the loss of archaeological sites can
or deterioration of these resources could have have significant sense of place impacts, particularly
negative economic impacts. Additionally, Marins for Native Americans who consider the sites sacred,
historic sites contribute to the countys unique charm While documenting the sites can help preserve
and character, adding to the appeal for tourism, thus some of the valuable historical information, the loss
assisting with economic development through of these irreplaceable resources could represent an
increased visitor spending, sales tax, and transient unprecedented loss to history and culture with no
occupancy tax. In some cases historic sites adjacent established processes to mitigate their
to the Bay may serve as shoreline armoring or buffer disappearance.
storm impacts helping to protect lands and
properties inland thus helping to ensure their Social equity is important in the field of historic
continued economic use. preservation. Both China Camp and Angel Island
hold stories of historically marginalized Asian
immigrants. Preservation of these irreplaceable sites
Environmental is important to ensure they remain in the collective
In addition to providing valuable information on memory and contribute to a more inclusive
cultural history, archaeological resources can be understanding of local and national history.
important information sources on natural history,
Several of the public historic sites offer educational
which may be of increased importance as global
experiences that can be enjoyed by many people
temperatures rise. Through analysis of elements
regardless of socioeconomic circumstances and
such as pollen, seeds, shells, and bones,
age. China Camp, the San Francisco Bay Model,
archaeological data can reveal which plants and
and Fort Baker can all be accessed for relatively low
animals thrived during past climactic periods (e.g.,
costs adding to their appeal for families with
the mid Holocene) with land and water temperatures
children.
comparable to potential future conditions with
climate changes, including secondary impacts such
114
as increased ocean acidification. Such data could
Management
be applied for future ecosystem restoration and
The loss of archaeological sites can present
management plans.
management challenges including the need for
In addition to allowing communities to remain intact, increased documentation and protection of sites,
continued use of older buildings has environmental particularly those of high intrinsic value. Close
benefits. Retrofitting existing homes through coordination with Native American groups will be
elevation and flood proofing can extend their lives in critical to ensure that adaptation strategies protect
the face of SLR and increased storms, thus avoiding vulnerable archaeological sites.
the immediate need for new construction. Building
Little guidance exists to inform the challenge of
reuse is almost always less environmentally taxing
adapting historic sites in the face of sea level rise.
then new construction, and it can take 10 to 80
Elevation may be structurally feasible, but could
years for a new building that is 30% more energy
have negative integrity impacts. Levees and
efficient than an average performing existing
seawalls could have negative impacts to the cultural
building to overcome negative climate impacts from
landscape. Relocation could remove sites from the
historic districts or contexts. Such strategies may
113
Rypkema, Donovan D., 2005. The Economics of Preservation:
115
A Community Leaders Guide. National Trust for Historic Preservation. 2011. The Greenest
114
Newland, Michael (Sonoma State Anthropological Studies Building: Quantifying the Environmental Value of Building
Center). 2015. Personal Communications Reuse.
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therefore not be allowed under current local design
review guidelines.
116
Advisory Council on Historic Preservation. 2015. Protecting
Historic Properties: A Citizens Guide to Section 106 Review.
117
Ibid.
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CULTURAL RESOURCES
Map 44: Northern Study Area Vulnerable Cultural Resource Assets
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CULTURAL RESOURCES
Map 45: Southern Study Area Vulnerable Cultural Resource Asset
DRAFT- Marin Shore Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 162
BayWAVE
COMMUNITY
PROFILES
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SAUSALITO
Municipality Profile: Sausalito
Sausalito, the southernmost community on the Marin IMPACTS AT-A-GLANCE: SCENARIO 6
shoreline, is situated just across the Golden Gate
Bridge from San Francisco, along Richardsons Bay. 150 acres 7,000+ people
In the near-term, twenty-six acres could be exposed 265 living units
to sea level rise. In the long-term, 84 acres could be 18 commercial
exposed to sea level rise; and150 acres could be 3.5 miles of roads parcels
exposed with an additional 100-year storm surge. Extreme event impacts Property
The following assets in the low lying areas primarily already occur Owners
east of Bridgeway may be vulnerable to storm City of Sausalito
surges and sea level rise: SMCSD
$400 million in assessed
property value, $61,000 in Southern Marin
Northerly access to Sausalito could be blocked Fire District
in the Waldo Point community. Shifting highway single-family home market
1 GGs Sausalito
access to the narrow windy hillside roads. value
Ferry
The Marinship area in northern Sausalito is built
on fill and is vulnerable to subsidence and
flooding. This is the primary employment area.
Shoreline homes in Old Town could be impacted Map 46. Sausalito BayWAVE Scenarios
by erosion, storm surges, and high tides.
Bridgeway leading to Old Town is vulnerable in
the long-term. The main wastewater force main
leading to Sausalito Marin City Sanitary District
treatment plant is under this roadway.
Swedes and Tiffany beaches, and all other
shoreline parks, could be vulnerable in the near-
term.
The Golden Gate Ferrys Sausalito Ferry landing
is vulnerable in the near-term.
The fire rescue boat in a vulnerable marina
could also be impacted in times of need.
Several shoreline restaurants, hotels, and
business could be vulnerable to flooding in the
near-term.
Inflow and infiltration of tide waters into
underground pipes could increasingly burden
the wastewater treatment facilities.
Several small shoreline parks and festival areas
at Spinnaker Point could flood, degrading public
facilities and impeding public use.
Several residents live in boats in marinas and
unauthorized boats out in Richardsons Bay that
are especially vulnerable during storms and
could be vulnerable to damage at the marinas
that host them.
Tens of historic sites could be vulnerable across
the BayWAVE scenarios.
1
2016 dollars
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SAUSALITO
Vulnerable Assets Table 48. Sausalito Exposed Acres
Acres
Land Scenarios
# %
Sausalito is primarily built out and land locked by 1 26 2
Richardsons Bay and the Marin Headlands. Most of Near-term
2 52 4
the development is elevated on a hillside, however,
3 35 3
the narrow strip of low-lying land near the shoreline Medium-term
is where most of the citys employment, tourist, 4 65 5
cultural, bay access, and maritime assets are 5 84 6
Long-term
located. 6 149 11
Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS
Acres
Because of Sausalitos hilly nature, very little
acreage could be flooded relative to the total area of Table 49. Sausalito Vulnerable Parcels
the city, and to other communities in the study area. Parcels
In near-term scenario 1, ten inches of sea level rise Scenarios
# %
could flood 26 acres during average high tide 1 40 1
several times a month. These 25 acres are Near-term
2 61 2
dispersed along the shoreline and account for two
percent of all acreage in Sausalito. An additional 3 48 1
Medium-term
100-year storm surge could double the acreage, 4 68 2
though the added area would face temporary 5 88 3
Long-term
flooding only. In medium-term scenario 3, ten more 6 358 11
aces and one additional percentage of the Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS
community could be exposed. With a storm surge
these numbers could rise to 65 acres for five percent
of the community. In long-term scenario 5, size In the medium-term, 8 or so more parcels in
percent of the community or 84 acres could expect Marinship and along the shoreline could flood in
tidal exposure. These and another 65 acres could each scenario. In long-term scenario 5, around three
face 100-year storm surge flooding as well. percent of parcels in Sausalito could face tidal
inundation, and an additional 100-year storm surge
on top of five feet of sea level rise could flood an
another 8 percent of Sausalito parcels. Overall, 11
Parcels percent of parcels could face storm surge flooding.
Land is divided into parcels for ownership and
development purposes. Parcels are assigned land Vulnerable parcels account for nearly ten percent of
uses and tend to stay true to that designation, all commercial parcels, though less than one percent
though many sites could feature multiple uses, such of percent of residential parcels in the community.
as commercial with housing included. Examining Note, however, a few of the marinas along the Bay
parcels can provide a window into how many land allow people to live on their boats in slips. While
uses and human activities may be vulnerable. these are not residential parcels, these are
residential spaces that could be highly vulnerable
The parcels that could flood tidally in the near-term during storm surges especially. Commercial
are in the Marinship neighborhood, and extend all buildings include a grocery store, offices,
along the shoreline to Old Town Sausalito. Several restaurants, and professional practices. Industrial
of the parcels along the shoreline already extend operations are generally related to boating and
into water by design. In the near-term 40 parcels craftsmanship.
could face tidal flooding. A 100-year storm surge at
this sea level could temporarily flood another 20 or More concerning is that Sausalito could lose 41
so parcels, and flood the first 40 parcels even more. percent of industrial parcels to tidal flooding and an
additional 20 percent to 100-year storm surge
flooding in the long-term. Twenty to 30 percent of
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SAUSALITO
industrial parcels could suffer 100-year storm surge Table 50. Sausalito Vulnerable Residential
impacts before this time. This, while only a few and Commercial Parcels
parcels is a significant contribution to the citys
employment base. Note that while several places Scenarios
along the shoreline have armoring, they may not be 1 3 5
Land Use
adequate to hold back the potential flood waters. Near-term Medium-term Long-term
The only historic landfill site in Sausalito is Dunphy # % # % # %
Park. The park could become completely covered
Residential 9 0 11 0 12 0
with high tide waters at a sea level rise of 60 inches.
Commercial 4 2 6 3 18 10
Buildings Industrial 3 21 8 30 41 62
The Sausalito Bayfront is highly developed with
industrial and maritime oriented businesses, Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS
facilities, and residences. Buildings in the Marinship
neighborhood are likely to flood as are, bay front
homes on pilings in Old Town. The properties could Table 51. Sausalito Vulnerable Land Uses
be susceptible to undercutting from strong wave Scenarios
activity during storms, and from consistently higher
high tides. In addition, Marinship and a few other 1 3 5
sites along the shore were filled prior to construction Land Use Medium-
Near-term Long-term
term
and are prone to subsidence. The flooded buildings
account for a small percentage of the building in the # Ac. # Ac. # Ac.
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SAUSALITO
In scenario 1, about ten buildings are could face Scenarios
three feet or shallower depths, and ten could be Flood Depth
(feet) 1 3 5
vulnerable to waters over three feet, with most Near-term Medium-term Long-term
vulnerable to over six feet to seven feet. In the
medium-term, several buildings are expected to 5.1-6 1 3 6
flood with up to two feet of water, with ten more that 6.1-7 6 8 7
could be flooded with three feet of water. About 7.1- 8 2 4 3
twice as many buildings could be vulnerable to over 8.1-9 2 2 5
three feet of water than in the near-term. In the long-
9.1- 10 0 3
term, over fifty buildings could be vulnerable to less
than or equal to 3 feet of water, and seventy 10.1+ 4 9
buildings could be vulnerable to more than three feet * Flood depth data is not available for every vulnerable
of water. Across all of the scenarios, a small building. Buildings that already exist beyond the mean sea
percentage of the buildings stock could face tidal level are not included.
flooding; however, these buildings are a significant Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS
portion of the citys commercial and industrial base. Table 54Table 54 estimates damage costs using
FEMA tagging designations for buildings and their
The maps on the following pages illustrate contents. This analysis assumes every vulnerable
vulnerable buildings by scenario. The areas in the building experiences the same level of damage
call out circles enable the reader the see areas that under scenario 6 conditions. At minor levels of
are difficult to see on the large scale map. The 2
damage, up to $5 million in damages could occur. If
circles do not indicate that these areas are more all of the buildings impacted under scenario 6 were
vulnerable than others along the shoreline. to become unusable, over $200 million in assessed
3
structural value could be lost.
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Table 53. Number of Sausalito Vulnerable
Buildings by Flood* Level at MHHW
Scenarios
Flood Depth
(feet) 1 3 5
Near-term Medium-term Long-term
0.1-1 2 3
1.1-2 2 19 20
2.1-3 6 9 32
3.1-4 2 5 22
4.1-5 3 32
5.1-6 1 3 6
6.1-7 6 8 7
7.1- 8 2 4 3
8.1-9 2 2 5
9.1- 10 0 3
10.1+ 4 9
* Flood depth data is not available for every vulnerable
building. Buildings that already exist beyond the mean sea
level are not included.
Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS
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Map 47. Sausalito Vulnerable Buildings
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Transportation the parking lot could be flooded with deep water at
In the near-term with a storm surge, scenario 2, MHHW in the near-term. Impacts to this facility
several streets in the Marinship area could flood would affect commuting and tourism. The following
more frequently than they already do causing marine facilities are in the exposed area:
reduced access to jobs and businesses there. In this
time period with a 100-year storm, about one half of Sausalito Shipyard and Marina, including
a mile could flood temporarily. By the medium-term, residents,
streets near Dunphy Park could become vulnerable. Cass Gidley Marina (public),
By this time, about 1.14 road miles could expect tidal Five Star Yacht,
impacts. With a 100-year storms surge coincidence, Liberty Ship Marina,
nearly one mile could experience bay surge flooding. Marina Plaza Harbor,
In the long-term, Bridgeway could be vulnerable in Pelican Yacht Harbor,
the low lying areas downtown and along the Bridgeway Marina,
southern shoreline. In addition, Johnson Street, Sausalito Yacht Harbor, and
where the Fire Station No. 1 is located, and Litho Schoonmaker Point Marina.
Street could be vulnerable. Overall, these roads
miles add up to nearly one and one half of a mile. An
additional two miles of road, and several other roads
in the downtown area could be flooded by 60 inches
with the 100-year storm surge.
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Table 55. Sausalito Transportation Routes Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise and a 100-year Storm
Surge
Near -Term Medium -Term Long -Term
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6
None 0.5 miles 0.14 miles 0.8 miles 1.4 miles 3.5 miles
P
Anchor Street Roads in scenario Roads in scenarios Roads in scenarios
L
Coloma St 2 1-4 1-5
L, P L, P L P
Gate 5 Rd Humboldt Ave Bridgeway Bay St
L L L L
Harbor Dr Turney St Johnson St Bee St
L L L
Heath Wy Litho St Caledonia St
P L L
Liberty Ship Wy Locust St El Portal St
P L L
Spinnaker Dr N Bridge Blvd Ensign St
P L P
Varda Landing Rd Napa St Marina Plaza
P L, P
Road 3 Marinship Wy
L
Napa St
L
Pine St
L
Princess St
L
Richardson St
L
San Carlos Ave
L
Tracy Wy
P
Wateree St
M = Marin County; C = State of California; L = Local Municipality; P = Private. Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS
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Map 48. Sausalito Vulnerable Transportation Assets
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Utilities Escalating activity, capacity demands, energy
Individual buildings that flood could face on site consumption, and wear and tear on pump
electrical, potable water, stormwater, and stations in stormwater and wastewater systems,
wastewater issues. If these sites, especially those Aging individual site connections for water,
closest to the shoreline, become regularly sewer, and electrical, and
inundated, services could be permanently cut off. Flood waters interrupting access for employees
to reach work sites.
These properties could also become sources of
excess water into the pump stations for flood control
and the waste treatment system. This could place a Available PG&E data did not reveal any major gas
burden on the equipment, chemical use, and energy and electric assets that could be vulnerable in the
conservation. study area. The same may be true for potable water
infrastructure. Digitized geographic stormwater data
Potential Sausalito Marin City Sanitary District
was not available at the time of this assessment.
(SMCSD) vulnerabilities impacting all residents in
Wastewater data is provided on Map 49.
Sausalito are:
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SAUSALITO
Eelgrass beds are much larger and closer to shore San Francisco Bay is the Southern sea otter, also
than the mapped habitats on Map 52. known as the California sea otter. These mammals
are, are among the smallest of marine mammals and
The longfin smelt is the only listed species may live for 15-20 years in the wild. Insects, such as
recorded in this area. The smelt is listed as the Monarch butterfly, could also see impacts to
threated on the California list and a candidate on their habitats that directly impact their success at
the federal list. The largest longfin smelt population survival. To learn more about these species, see the
occurs in the San Francisco Estuary and Natural Resources Profile.
Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. This species
occupies bay waters throughout summer and Finally, numerous special status plants with habitats
moves into lower reaches of rivers in fall to that are expected to be vulnerable to sea level rise
spawn. Other important fish species sensitive to are:
changes in environmental conditions that could
occur in Richardsons Bay are: Franciscan thistle
Hairless popcornflower.
Chinook salmon Marin western flax.
Delta smelt: Oregon polemonium.
Green sturgeon Point Reyes salty bird's-beak.
Pacific herring, and Tiburon buckwheat.
Steelhead. Tiburon paintbrush.
9
White-rayed pentachaeta.
Listed bird species that could be found in or moving
through the Sausalito shoreline are the Ridgways
rail and the Western snowy plover. The Ridgways Recreation
rail is one of the largest rails in North America. The Based on the CoSMoS model results, beaches and
Ridgways rail is very secretive and occurs primarily shoreline parks could disappear in the near to
in salt and brackish marshes with pickleweed and medium-terms. A few shoreline hotels, restaurants,
cordgrass. Richardsons Bay is known to support a and other guest serving facilities could also face
8
small number of Ridgways rails. T h e Western higher tides. Turney Street Boat Ramp, the only
snowy plover is a small shorebird that nests o n public boat launch on Richardsons Bay, and other
and near the shores of the San Francisco Bay and private marinas could also become compromised
may forage in Richardson's Bay. Other unique and more frequently during high tides, especially by long-
valuable bird species common in the area are: term scenario 5. Nearly all of the shoreline trails,
including the Bay Trail and bicycle trails could also
California brown pelican,
flood out and require increased maintenance from
California least tern, repeated saltwater exposure.
Double-crested cormorant,
San Francisco common yellowthroat, and
San Pablo (Samuels) song sparrow. Emergency Services
Access for emergency services to the Marinship
Additional migratory birds are reported and some
area and other shoreline areas east of Bridgeway
may occur within the project site on a regular basis
are the primary concern for police, fire, and
or on occasion (e.g., Allens hummingbird, marbled
ambulatory services. The Southern Marin Fire
godwit, Nuttalls woodpecker, western grebe).
Rescue boat Liberty could also be vulnerable during
And while not listed as threatened or endangered, a severe storms and impacted by disrupted marina
unique and valuable species that travels through the function. This would also be true for Sausalito Police
Departments two boats, Marine 1, berthed at
Schoonmaker Marina, and Marine 2, berthed at the
http://www.westcoast.fisheries.noaa.gov/stories/2014/04_1107 US Army Corps of Engineer's dock. Fire Station 1
2014_eelgrass_mitigation.html . Accessed 1/18/17
8
Wood, J., L. Salas, N. Nur, M. Elrod, J. McBroom. 2013.
9
Distribution and population trends for the Endangered Prunuske Chatham, Inc. March 2016. Draft Biological Resources
California Clapper Rail. State of the Estuary Conference, 26 Assessment: Dunphy Park Improvement Project Sausalito,
October 2013, Oakland, CA. Marin County.
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SAUSALITO
and the Sausalito Police Department station could
expect 100-year storm surge impacts by the end of
the century, and access issues east of Bridgeway
sooner. Finally, according to local asset managers,
the Army Corps of Engineers facility off Bridgeway
and Liberty Ship Way also serves as an emergency
shelter. The large facility hosts the Bay Model
Visitors Center and serves as the Navigation Branch
for the M/V Raccoon and M/V John A.B. Dillard, Jr.
10
at its dock in Sausalito.
10
J. Goldman. Dec. 20, 2016. Personal Communication. B. Van
Belleghem
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Map 49. Sausalito Vulnerable Wastewater Assets
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Map 50. Sausalito Vulnerable Natural Resource Assets
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Map 51. Sausalito Vulnerable Recreation Assets
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Map 52. Sausalito Vulnerable Emergency Service Assets
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Map 53. Sausalito Vulnerable Cultural Resource Assets
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SAUSALITO
Cultural Resources Marinship retains a higher degree of
Vulnerable Resources: 26 National register district architectural integrity then any of the other Bay
contributing sites, 17 noteworthy structures, 2 landmark
Area World War II emergency shipyards,
buildings
Eight surviving buildings could form a California
Scenarios: All
Flood Depths: 0904+100-year storm surge Register eligible district in the southernmost
Primary Building Materials: Wood, concrete, brick, portion of the district,
stucco, concrete Two sites are individually eligible for the National
Register of Historic Place, and
Both water and land access routes to Sausalitos Four sites are individually eligible for the
historic properties could be vulnerable in the near-
California Register of Historic Places.
term. The historic GGF Sausalito Ferry landing could
face inundation in the near-term. In the long-term,
These sites were never nominated for national or
parts of Bridgeway could be tidally flooded, and
state historic registers, and therefore have no formal
impacts could worsen with storms.
historic status. However, these resources can be
A handful of private properties, including two major considered potential historic resources.
districts (Downtown Historic District and Ark Row
In the near term, shipways that are part of Building
District) on the citys Historic Resources Inventory
23, the Marinship Shipways and Offices, could be
could also be vulnerable across the BayWAVE
vulnerable to the increased 10 inches of sea level
scenarios. Sausalitos Ark Row District includes
rise. More detailed analysis would be necessary to
seven noteworthy properties that could be flooded
fully evaluate integrity impacts that may occur.
with more than six feet of tidewaters in the near-
term, and nine feet in the long-term. An additional In the long-term, two buildings, the Marinship
ten other properties could be vulnerable in the long- Maintenance Garage and the Marinship Mold Loft
term, including the original firehouse, with eight of and Yard Office, could be vulnerable to tidal flooding
the ten only subject to storms. Additionally, two of at depths deeper than two feet. Both buildings were
Sausalitos landmark buildings, Castle by the Sea erected in 1942 with cinderblock construction and
and Ice House, could be vulnerable to a 100-year could be vulnerable to standing water. The Mold Loft
storm surge in scenario 6. could be eligible for the California Register, and the
Maintenance garage could support a California
register-eligible district.
Marinship
Vulnerable Resources: 10 potential historic resources Seven other properties could be vulnerable to the
Scenarios: All 100-year storm surge by the long-term scenario
Flood Depths: 21 - 28+100-year storm surge; flood including Building 29, the Marinship Warehouse.
depth data limited This building now serves as the Bay Model Visitors
Primary Building Materials: Concrete, wood, stucco, Center which houses the U.S. Army Corps of
steel Engineers Bay Model, a working hydraulic scale
12
model of the SF Bay-Delta, completed in 1957.
The former Marinship yard, an approximately 210- The model is no longer used for research, but open
acre site, was one of six Emergency Shipyards in to the public for educational purposes.
the San Francisco Bay Area established during
World War II. Marinship was built on bay fill, and
some areas, such as Heath Way, have experienced Downtown Historic District
approximately five feet of subsidence since 1943 The Downtown Historic District is a National Register
11
based on photographic records. In 2010, the of Historic Places and on the City of Sausalito
Marinship Historic Context Statement inventoried Historic Resources Inventory Listing. Overall, there
and recorded every major World War II era building are 26 National Register District contributing sites,
and structure. The effort concluded:
12
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Bay Model. Last updated August
18, 2016.
11
Robin Petravic (Heath Ceramics), personal communications. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Army_Corps_of_Engineers_Bay_M
July 2016. odel
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SAUSALITO
that could experience over nine feet of sea level rise Table 56. Example Sausalito Vulnerable
flooding and additional storm surge flooding in the Assets by Onset and Flooding at MHHW
long-term.
Scenarios
Sausalito was an important hub for rail, car and ferry 1 3 5
Asset
traffic before the Golden Gate Bridge was Near- Medium Long-
constructed. During World War II, the city developed term -term term
rapidly as a shipbuilding center. The Downtown Sausalito Ferry
Historic District centers on a ferry terminal with No data
Facilities
service to/from San Francisco, and is an important
Swedes Beach Flooded at existing high tides
area for commerce, and as a popular visitor
destination. The district is a National Park Service Flooded at existing
Tiffany Beach 7
Certified Historic District.
13 high tides
Marinship
0-13 4-142 11-36
Sea level rise is projected to inundate parts of Neighborhood
Sausalitos historic district in the near-term, with Marina Plaza 57 86 219
storms expanding the vulnerable area and Harbor
exacerbating impacts. By the long-term scenario Dunphy Park 51 58 138
with a 100-year storm surge, 26 National Register
District contributing sites could be vulnerable. Shops and
36 46 116
Further analysis could determine specific restaurants
vulnerability to each building based on location, Sausalito Yacht
4 1 3
flood depth, height above grade, materials, etc. Harbor
Mill Valley/
Sausalito 0-85 1-118
Table 56 lists example vulnerable assets in Pathway
Sausalito by onset and flood depth at MHHW. Maps Schoonmaker
throughout the profile illustrate the developed and 72 101
Beach
natural assets vulnerable to sea level rise and the Schoonmaker
100-year storm surge. A 100-year storm surge could 3'3" 8'2"
Point Marina
add an additional 1 to 3 feet of water to these
Clipper Yacht
properties. Note also, above average high tides 25 63
Harbor
could impact more properties than accounted for in
this analysis. Gate 5 Road 0-22 10-410
Cass Gidley
2 32
Marina
Archaeological Resources Turney Street
88
Archaeological resources may be present in the Boat Ramp
exposure zones. Yee Tock Chee
211
Park
Bay Trail 7-23
Bridgeway 7-2
Source: Marin Map, OCOF, Asset Manager Interviews
13
Office of Historic Places, accessed July 14, 2016.
http://ohp.parks.ca.gov/?page_id=27283
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MILL VALLEY
Community Profile: Mill Valley
Just north east of Sausalito is Mill Valley. Mill Valley
IMPACTS AT-A-GLANCE: SCENARIO 6
borders Richardson Bay and extends into the narrow
valley. While only a small area of the community is 1,000+ living units 13,500+ people
impacted, several key access routes and public 273 acres exposed
facilities are in the exposed low lying areas
surrounding the Bay. In the near-term, forty-four 5.6 miles of roads 25 commercial
acres could be exposed to sea level rise. By the Storm and tidal impacts parcels
long-term, 190 acres could be exposed to sea level already occur
rise and 273 acres could be exposed with an
Property
additional 100-year storm surge. Key issues in Mill
Owners
Valley are: Nearly $550 million of
SASM
assessed property value and
City of Mill
Miller Avenue could be flooded in the near-term. $830 million in single-family
14 Valley
This area already experiences seasonal flooding market value vulnerable
Mill Valley
that has flooded Tamalpais High School fields.
School District
Homes and businesses along and near Shelter
Cove, Hamilton Drive, and the Frontage Road
could expect near-term flooding impacts.
The Redwoods, a retirement community, is Map 54. Mill Valley Sea Level Rise and
exposed and completely surrounded, and 100-year Storm Surge Scenarios
therefore vulnerable in the medium-term.
Sanitary Association of Southern Marin (SASM)
treatment plant, serving six sanitary districts and
30,000 people, including Mill Valley residents,
could expect flooding impacts between the
medium and long-term scenarios.
The Mill Valley-Sausalito Path could flood a
majority of the year during average high tides in
the medium-term.
Mill Valley Middle School could expect sea level
rise impacts to the grounds, and could expect
flood waters reach the buildings with the 100-
year storm coincidence.
Bothin Marsh habitat could transition to mudflats
without adequate sediment supply because the
marsh does not have options for inland
migration.
Mill Valley Recreation Center fields could be
vulnerable to sea level rise in the long-term, and
a storm surge could impact nearly the whole
site.
Camino Alto, between Miller and Blithedale
Avenues, and the neighborhood north of it, could
expect flooding in the long-term.
14
2016 dollars
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MILL VALLEY
Vulnerable Assets Table 57. Mill Valley Exposed Acres by
Mill Valleys most vulnerable assets are Miller Scenario
Avenue, Shelter Bay area, the Sanitary Association
of Southern Marin (SASM) treatment plant, and Acres
Scenarios
Bothin Marsh. However, by the long-term both the # %
western and northern access routes in to the 1 44 1
Near-term
community could be vulnerable to flooding during a 2 103 3
100-year storm surge. Combined with existing storm 3 62 2
water issues, storm impacts from rain and from the Medium-term
4 183 6
bay, or even a king tide, could have devastating 5 190 6
impacts on natural and built assets in low-lying Long-term
6 273 9
areas closest to shoreline.
Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS
Land
Much like other communities in the region, Mill Table 58. Mill Valley Vulnerable Parcels by
Valley has extensive development upland in the
valley and along the valley hillsides. Thus, Scenario
developable Bayfront land is minimal and intensely Parcels
Scenarios
utilized. In addition, Mill Valley is fronted with Bothin # %
and Sutton Marshes that serve valuable ecological 1 80 1
and physical buffering functions. The areas Near-term
contribute greatly to the acreage counted. 2 195 3
3 80 1
Medium-term
4 338 6
Acres 5 361 6
In near-term scenario 1, 44 acres of mostly marsh Long-term
6 741 13
and waters edge land could be vulnerable to
monthly tidal flooding at MHHW. In near-term Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS
scenario 2, a 100-year storm could flood these and
sixty more acres, amounting to 3 percent of Mill
Valleys land area. In medium-term scenario 3,
roughly 20 more acres could anticipate tidal flooding,
and nearly triple this could anticipate storm surge
flooding in scenario 4. By the long-term, tidal
flooding could extend beyond the marshes and their
borders into developed areas. In scenario 5, 190
acres, or 6 percent of acres in the community may
be exposed to tidal flooding. In scenario 6, with the
additional 100-year storm surge, these 190 acres,
plus nearly 100 more could experience storm surge
exposure. This indicates that ten percent of the Mill
Valleys land area could be exposed to five feet of
sea level rise and a 100-year storm surge.
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MILL VALLEY
Table 59. Mill Valley Vulnerable Residential In scenario 1, exposed acreage is divided into 80
and Commercial Parcels vulnerable parcels. These parcels are essentially all
parcels that directly border the waters edge. These
Scenarios consist of several large publically owned parcels and
1 3 5 smaller residential parcel. A small number of
Land Use
Near-term Medium-term Long-term commercial parcels are impacted. With a 100-year
# % # % # % storm surge, scenario 2, 195 parcels, or three
percent of all parcels in Mill Valley could be
Residential 74 1 169 1 308 6 vulnerable to storm surge flooding. In medium-term
Commercial 3 1 3 1 25 10 scenario 4, up to six percent of parcels could be
Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS vulnerable to storm surge flooding. These parcels
are also likely to see tidal flooding impacts by long-
term scenario 5. Over twice this amount may see
storm surge flooding by scenario 6.
Table 60. Mill Valley Vulnerable Parcels by
Land Use As shown in Table 59 and Table 60, by land use,
Scenarios less than 1 percent of residential and commercial
parcels could experience flooding in the near- and
1 3 5
medium-terms. The primary vulnerable land use is
Land Use Medium-
Near-term
term
Long-term tax exempt, or publicly owned. These include
parkland, two schools, and a waste water treatment
# Ac. # Ac. # Ac.
facility. In the long-term, however; several hundred
Commercial 3 14 3 14 19 27 residential parcels, accounting for six percent of all
Improved residential parcels in Mill Valley, could be vulnerable
Commercial 6 9 to tidal impacts. Residential parcels include the
Unimproved Redwoods retirement community, homes on the
Exemption 4 14 Shelter Bay inlet, and homes north or Camino Alto at
Improved roughly Sycamore Avenue By this time 25
Multi-Family commercial parcels, 10 percent of commercial
Residential 1 0.13 parcels in Mill Valley, along Camino Alto and
Improved Redwood Highway Frontage Road could also
Single experience tidal flooding.
Family 73 1 71 1 184 3
Attached In long-term scenario 6, even more homes north of
Single Camino Alto could flood, as could the shopping
Family centers east of Blithedale Avenue. With a 100-year
122 17 storm surge in scenario 6, nearly fifteen percent of
Residential
Improved residential parcels, and one-third of the commercial
Single parcels could be vulnerable to temporary flooding.
Family Commercial properties that could experience
1 3 1 3 1 3 flooding are the Mill Valley Shopping Center in the
Residential
Unimproved long-term and the Alto Shopping Center in the long-
term with a 100-year storm surge, scenario 6.
Tax Exempt 1 6 3 8 21 63
Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS
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MILL VALLEY
Buildings with three feet of water, and seventy could be
Many of the vulnerable parcels contain one or more impacted by more than three to five feet of water.
buildings. Flooding to buildings and their contents
could result in significant amounts of building and Table 63 estimates costs using FEMA tagging
material damage, or worse loss. Relative to other designations for damage to buildings and their
East Marin communities, Mill Valley has a low contents. This analysis focuses on scenario 6 sea
number of buildings vulnerable to sea level rise and level rise and storm surge conditions, the worst case
a 100-year storm surge. However, several areas storm scenario analyzed. If every vulnerable building
already vulnerable to stormwater backups could experienced minor levels of damage, up to $9
15
expect these conditions worsen with added million in damages could occur. If all of the
saltwater. buildings impacted under scenario 6 were to
become unusable, over $300 million in assessed
16
Table 61 summarizes the vulnerable buildings in the structural value could be lost. Reality would likely
study area. As shown, in the near-term, a few reflect a mix of damage levels. The deterioration and
buildings could expect tidal flooding. In scenario 2, destruction of Mill Valleys commercial and public
ten inches of sea level rise with a 100-year storm buildings would have significant impacts on the local
surge; more than 200 buildings could be vulnerable. economy and sense of place. Having to rebuild or
With respect to sea level rise, the medium-term is repair buildings after flooding can be traumatic and
similar to the near-term; however, the 100-year costly for tax paying residents and business owners.
storm surge could impact more than a 100 more
buildings. In the long-term, the same buildings
impacted in scenario 4, could now see tidal flooding Table 61. Mill Valley Vulnerable Buildings
at MHHW. These buildings account for roughly five
Buildings
percent of Mill Valleys building stock. In the long- Scenarios
term with a 100-year storm surge, these figures # %
nearly double over scenario 5 figures to over 500 1 5 0
buildings. Most of these buildings are on residential Near-term
2 207 3
parcels, though Mill Valley Middle School, the SASM
3 7 0
treatment plant, the Mill Valley Recreation Center, Medium-term
and Tamalpais High School are also vulnerable. 4 325 5
Vulnerable residential parcels now include homes in 5 329 5
the southern end of the Sycamore neighborhood. In Long-term
6 536 8
addition, buildings in the commercial center Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS
buildings along Camino Alto and E. Blithedale could
face storm flooding.
Most of Mill Valleys buildings are wood-framed. Table 62. Mill Valley Vulnerable Buildings
While it is unclear how many buildings are older than Average Flood Depth MHHW Estimates
30 years, many in the low-lying areas are. Newer Scenarios
Flood Depth
buildings typically have drilled piles 20-30 feet deep
(feet) 1 3 5
with reinforced steel cages and concrete to connect
the homes to the foundation. This feature can help 0.1-1 # 1 32
buildings withstand lateral forces from wind and 1.1-2 # 1 96
water. However, even if buildings remain structurally 2.1-3 # 127
intact, utility-related equipment could be vulnerable. 3.1-4 # 59
Moreover, material and content damage from water
4.1-5 # 12
and salt could occur.
Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS
Table 62 divides the vulnerable buildings into flood * Flood depth data is not available for all exposed assets.
depth intervals, showing how many buildings could
be flooded with one, two or ten feet of tidal flooding
during MHHW. This analysis reveals that flood
depths are shallow through medium-term. However,
by the long-term, nearly 250 buildings could flood 15
2016 dollars
16
2016 dollars
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 186
MILL VALLEY
Table 63. Mill Valley Vulnerable Buildings
FEMA Hazus Damage Cost* Estimates for
Long-term Scenario 6
Buildings Scenario 6 536
Yellow Tag: Minor Damage $2,680,000
$5,000 minimum
Orange Tag: Moderate Damage $9,112,536
$17,001 minimum
Red Tag: Destroyed $300,215,511
Assessed structural value
Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS. *2016 dollars
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 187
MILL VALLEY
Map 55. Mill Valley Vulnerable Buildings
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 188
MILL VALLEY
The Mill Valley/Sausalito Path for non-vehicular
traffic faces a similar fate, though likely sooner due
to its marshland location. In addition, the Redwood
Highway Frontage Road along U.S Highway 101
southbound is vulnerable in the near-term. In the
long-term, Camino Alto, between Miller and
Blithedale Avenues, could be vulnerable to tidal
flooding, as could several smaller neighborhood
streets to the north, though with the 100-year storm
surge, this area could be impacted temporarily in the
medium-term. Blithedale Avenue could expect minor
high tide flooding by scenario 5, with more severe
flooding with a 100-year storm surge.
Mill Valley-Sausalito Path. Credit: J. Poskazner
Transit routes 4, 8, 17, and 22 could expect tidal
and/or temporary storm surge flooding and result in
Transportation a reduction in service during average high tides at
Miller Avenue is the only southwestern access road the following Golden Gate Transit bus stops:
to Mill Valley, and is vulnerable in the near-term. In
fact, this area already experiences seasonal flooding Miller Ave. and Reed St.,
that extends into Tamalpais High School athletic E Blithedale Ave. and Lomita Dr.,
fields, especially combined with rain events. Portions E Blithedale Ave. and Roque Moraes Dr.,
of the road are on a narrow strip of land between Miller Ave. and Camino Alto, and
businesses, the hillside, and Richardsons Bay, Miller Ave. and Almonte Blvd.
offering little room for inland relocation. Moreover,
Miller Avenue is connected to the freeway system The maps on the following pages illustrate
through Shoreline Highway in the frequently flooded vulnerable transportation features. The areas in the
Manzanita area in Almonte. Miller Avenue serves call out circles enable the reader the see areas that
high school students, commuters, service providers, are difficult to see on the large scale map. The
and suppliers that would face difficulties making it circles do not indicate that these areas are more
through the narrow corridor when flooded. vulnerable than others along the shoreline.
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MILL VALLEY
Map 56. Mill Valley Vulnerable Transportation Assets
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MILL VALLEY
Map 57. Mill Valley Vulnerable Sanitary Sewer Assets
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MILL VALLEY
Map 58. Mill Valley Vulnerable Gas & Electric Assets
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MILL VALLEY
Map 59 Mill Valley Vulnerable Stormwater Assets
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MILL VALLEY
Utilities and moves into lower reaches of rivers in fall to
The key vulnerable utility asset is the SASM spawn. Other important fish species sensitive to
treatment plant. This plant serves tens of thousands changes in environmental conditions that could
of people at their homes, business, and places of occur in Richardsons Bay are:
study, work, and worship. If the treatment plant is
compromised, even dry hillside homes could suffer Chinook salmon
breakdowns in the system if no action is taken to Delta smelt:
protect or relocate the plant. For more information Green sturgeon
on SASM vulnerabilities see the Utilities Profile. Pacific herring, and
Steelhead.
Other concerns include those common to other
communities, including: The Ridgways rail is one of the largest rails in
North America. The Ridgways rail is very secretive
Underground pipes face compounding pressure and occurs primarily in salt and brackish marshes
forces from water and the road, with pickleweed and cordgrass. Rails were
Road erosion and collapse with underlain pipes, detected in Bothin Marsh Preserve, Mill Valley.
17
Saltwater inflow and infiltration causing T h e Western snowy plover is a small shorebird
inefficiencies in wastewater treatment, that nests o n and near the shores of the San
Continuously subsiding soils or fill, and Francisco Bay and may forage in Richardson's
Escalating activity, capacity demands, energy Bay. Other unique and valuable bird species
consumption, and wear and tear on pump common in the area are:
stations in stormwater and wastewater systems,
Aging individual site connections for water, California brown pelican,
sewer, and electrical, and California least tern,
Flood waters interrupting access for employees Double-crested cormorant,
to reach work sites. San Francisco common yellowthroat, and
San Pablo (Samuels) song sparrow.
The maps on the previous pages illustrate Insects, such as the Monarch butterfly, could also
vulnerable utility features. The areas in the call out see impacts to their habitats that directly impact their
circles enable the reader the see areas that are success at survival. Finally, numerous special status
difficult to see on the large scale map. The circles do plants with habitats that are expected to be
not indicate that these areas are more vulnerable vulnerable to sea level rise are:
than others along the shoreline.
Franciscan thistle,
Hairless popcornflower,
Natural Resources Marin western flax,
Bothin Marsh and its smaller connected marshes, Oregon polemonium,
such as Sutton Marsh, and Shelter Bay habitats Point Reyes salty bird's-beak,
could be vulnerable to sea level rise in the near- Tiburon buckwheat,
term. The habitat serves for bird, rodent, insect, and Tiburon paintbrush, and
18
water loving species. Factors that could impact the White-rayed pentachaeta.
habitat are increased salinity, higher water levels,
increased erosion, and road and building barriers to To learn more about these species, see the Natural
inland migration. Resources Profile.
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 194
MILL VALLEY
Recreation Table 65. Example Mill Valley Assets
The vulnerable Mill Valley marshes are a popular Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise by Onset and
recreational destination for locals and visitors alike.
This loss could have negative effects on the sense
Flood Depth at MHHW
of place and local economy. The Mill Valley- Scenarios
Sausalito pathway through the marshes could be Near- Medium-
Asset Long-term
term term
flooded out more often and degraded more quickly.
1 3 5
Strong enough storm waters could even damage the
wooden pathways structural integrity. Capacity Hwy 101
0-4 9-13 2-32
reductions would impact bikers, skaters, runners, commercial
and walkers of all ages. Mill Valley/
Sausalito 0-85 1-118
The Mill Valley Recreation Center could expect Pathway
impacts to the ball fields and some ancillary Bay Trail 0-8 3-125
buildings from long-term sea level rise. A 100-year
Mill Valley
storm could flood out the majority of the property
Shopping 12-7 6-26
and access could be compromised. The primary
Center
buildings are elevated beyond MHHW; however, by
the end of the century, they could be impacted by Sycamore
2-22 4-47
the highest high tides, especially during and neighborhood
immediately following a rain event. Miller Avenue 0-17 2-48
SASM
In addition, the guest serving Acqua Hotel on Shelter 6-11 12-25
treatment plant
Bay and the Travel Lodge may be vulnerable in the Shelter Bay
long-term, and nearby restaurants may be 2-9 6-110
neighborhood
vulnerable in the medium-term.
The Redwoods 7 17
Sycamore Ave 0-47
Emergency Services Camino Alto
The primary concern for Mill Valley emergency (between Miller
2-36
services is vehicular access to and through flooded and Blithedale
areas in emergencies. Delayed service could lead to Avenues)
worse injury or worse, loss of life. Mill Valley
Middle School 12
temp buildings
Cultural Resources E. Blithedale
Mill Valleys inventoried historic assets are located 1
Avenue
outside of the exposure zones. Tamalpais High
No data
fields
Bothin Marsh Floods at existing high tides
Example assets are presented Table 65 and
described in the subsequent sections. A 100-year Arroyo Corte
storm surge would add an additional 1 to 3 feet of Madera Del Water resource
water to these properties. Note also, above average Presidio
high tides could impact more properties than Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS
accounted for in this analysis. The maps on the
following pages illustrate vulnerable natural
resource, recreation, emergency and historic
features. The areas in the call out circles enable the
reader the see areas that are difficult to see on the
large scale map. The circles do not indicate that
these areas are more vulnerable than others along
the shoreline.
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MILL VALLEY
Map 60. Mill Valley Vulnerable Natural Resource Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 196
MILL VALLEY
Map 61. Mill Valley Vulnerable Recreation Assets
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MILL VALLEY
Map 62. Mill Valley Vulnerable Emergency Services
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 198
BELVEDERE
Community Profile: Belvedere
Belvedere is a unique shoreline community,
because it used to be an island before fill was used IMPACTS AT-A-GLANCE: SCENARIO 6
to create the lagoon, or flats, neighborhood. The 550 living units 2,000+ people
primary impacts here are to housing. In the near-
term, 24 acres could be exposed to sea level rise. 180 acres exposed
By the long-term, 169 acres could be exposed to 3.7 miles of roads 4 commercial
sea level rise and 180 acres could be exposed with parcels
Seasonal storm flooding
an additional 100-year storm surge. Key sea level
already occurs
rise vulnerabilities include:
San Rafael Avenue could be impacted after the $8.6 million in assessed
medium-term, cutting off the first access point to property; $1.4 billion in Property Owners
the community. single-family housing City of Belvedere
19
Shoreline homes along West Shore and Beach market value
Roads could expect impacts to utilities in the
near and medium-terms, and potential structural
impacts to any in water structures during storms,
especially in the long-term. Map 63. Belvedere Sea Level Rise and
Homes in the flats would be vulnerable to sea 100-year Storm Surge Scenarios
level rise flooding if the levees are overtopped.
Note that the homes on the lagoon could also
flood, however the model may overestimate the
flooding intensity. These homes are also
vulnerable to worsening subsidence.
The Belvedere Corp Yard could be vulnerable to
storm surge flooding in the near-term and tidal
flooding in the long-term.
The City Hall, Community Center, and Police
Department share the same buildings that could
expect impacts in the long-term, especially
during storms. The park facility and roads
fronting the building could expect flood waters
sooner, creating potential access issues.
Vulnerable Assets
The assets most vulnerable to sea level rise and
storm surges in Belvedere are single-family
residential homes and San Rafael Avenue. With
respect to the impacts to lagoon side homes, it is
important to note that the CoSMoS model treats the
tide gate closing the lagoon from incoming tide
waters as open. This assumption may overestimate
flooding levels and prematurely estimate onset of
flooding. The following sections detail these
vulnerabilities.
Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS. Credit: BVB Consulting LLC
19
2016 dollars
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 199
BELVEDERE
Land
Belvedere was an island until it was connected to
Tiburon with fill on bay mud. Because of this several
homes in the lagoon neighborhood could be
vulnerable to subsidence and several have sunk
below mean sea level. Much of this area is protected
from the Bay by a levee wall on the north and a wall
with tides gates to the south. The tide gates allow
water into a central lagoon. Note that the CoSMoS
model treats these gates open, when city engineers
have the ability to close the gates to reduce tidal
influences on the internal lagoon.
Acres
Belvedere is essentially two hill side and top
neighborhoods and a lagoon neighborhood. The first
acreages claimed by tidal waters are those along the
Belvedere Lagoon homes. Credit: Wiki Commons bluff side of Belvedere Island. In time, the lagoon
area and the area extending into Tiburon could face
tidal and storm surge flooding.
Table 66. Belvedere Exposed Acres
Acres In near-term scenario 1, two percent, or 24 acres of
Scenarios Belvedere could face tidal flooding at MHHW.
# %
Flooded acreage could more than triple with the
1 24 2
Near-term onset of a 100-year storm surge. The same acreage
2 85 6
could be vulnerable in the medium-term as the near-
3 24 2 term due to sea level rise alone. A 100-year storm
Medium-term
4 130 9 surge could impact almost ten percent of the acre
5 169 12 sin Belvedere. In long-term scenario 5 and 6, less
Long-term
6 180 12 than 200 acres, or 12 percent of Belvedere could be
Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS vulnerable to sea level rise and a 100-year storm
surge, including the entire lagoon neighborhood.
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 200
BELVEDERE
Table 68 shows that over 30 percent of residential Buildings
and commercial parcels in Belvedere could be The most vulnerable buildings are in the flats, or
vulnerable to sea level rise. The majority of these lagoon area, and those directly above the bay on the
properties are in the low lying lagoon area. Thirty bluff edge on West Shore Road and Beach Road.
percent of residential parcels would be a Some may extend over the water on piers or feature
considerable loss of over 300 parcels. Most of these overhanging decks. According to Belvedere
parcels are single family residential. Some multi- managers, some of these homes have vents and
family parcels could be vulnerable as well. other utility lines under the homes that could be
vulnerable to increased saltwater exposure. In the
low-lying areas, homes in the area could be
Table 68. Belvedere Vulnerable Residential vulnerable in the medium to long-term time horizon if
the levees are overtopped and the lagoon is left
and Commercial Parcels
under tidal influence. Even if the lagoon is managed
Scenarios well enough to keep those homes bordering it dry,
Medium- these homes may become isolated if tidewaters
Near-term Long-term
term
Land Use overtop the levees lining San Rafael Avenue and
1 3 5 Beach Road, or Tiburons downtown streets.
# % # % # % Looking at the CoSMoS model interactive map, the
Residential 46 5 47 5 324 37 levees surrounding the lagoon area are topped at 3
feet of sea level rise, though significant impacts
Commercial 4 33 could occur between scenarios 3 and 5. In the
Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS lagoon area, many of the original homes were, or
are being, replaced with newer construction.
Tax Exempt 5 1 5 1 16 3
Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS
20
The CoSMoS model may over predict flooding in the lagoon
system. The model treats the lagoon as tidal, when, in fact, the
lagoon water levels are managed through tide gates for
seasonal water fluctuations.
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 201
BELVEDERE
Table 70. Belvedere Vulnerable Buildings In near-term scenario 1, of the buildings with an
Buildings associated flood depth, ten buildings could expect 1
Scenarios foot of flooding. If a building is elevated from the
# % ground by more than this amount the floor boards of
1 32 2 the building may remain dry, however, any
Near-term
2 84 5 equipment, and the property in general, would be
3 wet and could be damaged on a regular basis. Thirty
65 4
Medium-term buildings could face flood levels of over one to three
4 90 5 feet, and an addition al ten could experience up to
5 423 24 six feet of flood water. In the medium-term, most
Long-term buildings could flood with more than 1 foot to three
6 470 27
Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS feet of salt water, with 20 buildings experiencing
flooding deeper than 3 feet up to seven feet. In long-
term scenario 5, flooding could exceed seven feet
and reach up to 10 feet at MHHW. Roughly 300
Table 71. Belvedere Tidal MHHW Flood buildings could expect saltwater flooding over three
Depth* Estimates for Vulnerable Buildings feet up to seven feet. About 100 buildings could
anticipate less than three feet of saltwater flooding at
Scenarios MHHW. Tidal flooding at these levels may require a
Flood Depth Near-term
Medium-
Long-term dramatic shift in use and design is use of the
(feet) term
properties is still desired moving forward.
1 3 5
0.1-1 10 6 8
1.1-2 14 16 31 Applying the FEMA post-storm damage tagging
2.1-3 13 14 65 levels described in the Buildings Profile reveals that
3.1-4 5 10 52 minor damage to all of the buildings flooded in
scenario 6, the worst case scenario, could add to $8
4.1-5 3 2 89 21,22
million. If total destruction were to occur for each
5.1-6 2 3 124 building vulnerable to five feet of sea level rise and a
6.1-7 1 46 100-year storm, over $356 million in assessed
23,24
7.1-8 5 building value could be lost in a storm. Reality
8.1-9 1 will likely reflect a mix of these damage levels.
These figures are summarized in Table 72.
9.1-10 1
*Flood depth data is not available for all exposed assets.
Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS If sea level rise occurs at these levels much a
Belvederes lagoon area could be lost to sea. This
would also present major complications for those
Table 72. Belvedere Vulnerable Buildings who travel through the lagoon neighborhood on San
FEMA Hazus Damage Cost Estimates in Rafael Avenue to get to their homes or jobs on
Belvedere Island. The maps on the following pages
Long-term Scenario 6 illustrate vulnerable buildings by scenario. The areas
Buildings Scenario 6 470 in the call out circles enable the reader the see
Yellow Tag-Minor Damage $2,350,000 areas that are difficult to see on the large scale map.
$5,000 minimum The circles do not indicate that these areas are more
Orange Tag: Moderate Damage $7,990,470 vulnerable than others along the shoreline.
$17,001 minimum
Red Tag-Destroyed $356,209,805
Assessed structural value
Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS 21 ArcGIS. FEMA Modeling Task Force (MOTF)-Superstorm
Sandy Impact Analysis. Last update June 22, 2015.
*2016 dollars http://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=307dd522499d4a44
a33d7296a5da5ea0
22
2016 dollars
23
Market value is typically higher than assessed value.
24
2016 dollars
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 202
BELVEDERE
Map 64. Belvedere Vulnerable Buildings
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 203
BELVEDERE
Transportation Water transportation for recreational purposes is a
The primary access road to Belvedere, San Rafael major use of the San Francisco Yacht Club Marina
Avenue, is vulnerable to overland flooding after off Belvedere Island. As sea level rises, the facility
three feet of sea level rise. The levee lining the may need to make some adjustments or relocate.
shoreline here may protect the avenue from sea Several private piers and docks could also be
level rise for a couple decades; however, when damaged in storms and/or may need to be elevated.
combined with storm surges, the armoring could be
compromised sooner. The lagoon area roads may The maps on the following pages illustrate
experience increasing subsidence issues in addition vulnerable transportation features. The areas in the
to, and even before, flooding. In time, several call out circles enable the reader the see areas that
additional roads in the lagoon area could be are difficult to see on the large scale map. The
impacted by high tides on a regular basis. If the low circles do not indicate that these areas are more
lying roads are compromised, people who live in the vulnerable than others along the shoreline.
homes on Belvedere Island could become isolated
or prevented through travel for several hours several
days a month.
If public transportation gets cut off because roads San Francisco Yacht Club facing Corinthian Hill in Belvedere.
are inundated, people who travel through or to the Credit: F .Higgins
area for work would be cut off. Similarly, people with
mobility or health constraints will be affected.
Table 73. Belvedere Roads Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise and a 100-year Storm Surge
Near-term Medium-term Long-term
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6
None 0.1 miles None 1.4 miles 3.1 miles 3.7 miles
L
San Rafael Ave Roads in Scenario 2 Roads in scenarios Roads in scenarios
L P
Hilarita Cir Barn Rd 2 and 4 2, 4, and 5
L L P L
Edgewater Rd Beach Rd Embarcadero Dr Bellevue Ave
L L
Community Rd Lagoon Rd Golden Gate Ave
L L
Cove Rd Maybridge Rd
L L
Cove Road Pl West Shore Rd
L
Leeward Rd
P
Mallard Rd
L
Peninsula Rd
P
Teal Rd
L
Windward Rd
M = Marin County; C = State of California; L = Local Municipality; P = Private.
Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS
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BELVEDERE
Map 65. Belvedere Vulnerable Transportation Assets
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BELVEDERE
required to generate energy and sustain them. The
loss of eelgrass beds would have significant ripple
effects on other species in the Bay eco-system.
Eelgrass beds are much larger and closer to shore
than the mapped habitats on Map 69.
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BELVEDERE
Map 66. Belvedere Vulnerable Cultural
Resource Assets
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BELVEDERE
Map 67. Belvedere Vulnerable Natural Resource Assets
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BELVEDERE
Map 68. Belvedere Vulnerable Recreation Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 209
BELVEDERE
Map 69. Belvedere Cultural Resource Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 210
TIBURON
Community Profile: Tiburon
Tiburon is located along an extensive peninsula IMPACTS AT-A-GLANCE
projecting into Richardsons and San Pablo Bays.
The peninsula is generally steep with several areas 341 living units 8,500+ people
of reinforced shoreline. However, the low-lying 135 acres exposed
downtown Blackies Pasture, and Cove areas could
be vulnerable. Increased sea level rise and storm 2.4 miles of roads 36 commercial
surges could significantly compromise this shoreline Storm and tidal impacts parcels
community in the following ways: already occur
28
2016 dollars
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 211
TIBURON
Parcels
Table 76 shows how many parcels are in the
exposed area of the community under the six
BayWAVE scenarios. About 45 to 50 parcels could
be vulnerable in the near- and medium-terms. IN the
long-term, this number triples to 150 vulnerable
parcels. An additional 100-year storm surge at five
feet of sea level rise could triple this figure again, to
and 450 flooded parcels.
View of Corinthian Marina and Tiburon Ferry facilities from Table 75. Tiburon Exposed Acreage
Shoreline Park. Credit: BVB Consulting LLC Acres
Scenarios
# %
1 48 0.3
Near-term
Vulnerable Assets 2 47 0.3
Tiburons most vulnerable assets are concentrated 3 48 0.3
on the face of the peninsula, downtown, and the Medium-term
4 49 0.3
Cove. These areas feature housing and a number of 5 106 0.6
business, civic, recreation, historic and visitor Long-term
6 135 0.8
serving uses. These areas tend to draw millions of Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS
visitors a year and provide a significant amount of
economic and cultural value to the community and
Marin County.
Table 76. Tiburon Vulnerable Parcels at
Land MHHW
Low-lying land on Tiburons steep peninsula are Parcels
concentrated in small areas that ae highly developed Scenarios
# %
and treasured. Bluff top parcels could expect
1 46 1
negative impacts from storm surges that could cause Near-term
the bluffs to collapse. Note that because significant 2 46 1
amounts of development are in the uplands, the 3 47 1
Medium-term
exposed land area is relatively small compared to 4 49 1
the total area of Tiburon. Examining the exposed 5 145 4
acreage and the vulnerable land uses on the Long-term
6 442 12
exposed land provides a glimpse of what is at stake
Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS
if actions to prepare for sea level rise are no taken.
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 212
TIBURON
Table 78. Tiburon Vulnerable Parcels by
Land Use
Scenarios
1 3 5
Land Use
Near-term Medium-term Long-term
# Ac. # Ac. # Ac.
Commercial 4 1 5 1 32 18
Improved
Commercial 4 1
Unimproved
Residential 34 10 42 10 87 19
Multi-Family
Improved 12 3 12 3 12 3
Multi-Family
Unimproved 2 0.5 2 0.5 4 0.5
Single Family
The Tiburon waterfront is vulnerable in the near-term. Source: Improved 13 6 13 6 62 15
Marin CDA. Single Family
Unimproved 7 0.5 7 0.6 7 0.6
Tax Exempt 8 18 8 18 20 36
When taking a closer look at land use, a striking 65 Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS
percent of commercial properties could be
vulnerable to long-term levels of sea level rise. In
this scenario, tidal flooding could extend down
Tiburon Boulevard. Additional stormwater from the Table 79. Tiburon Vulnerable Buildings
hillsides would only exacerbate his flooding during Buildings
storms. Reductions in service or loss due to building Scenarios
# %
or inventory damage could have significant
economic and employment repercussions for 1 26 1
Near-term
Tiburon. In earlier scenarios, roughly ten percent of 2 42 1
commercial parcels could face tidal flooding at Medium-term 3 42 1
MHHW. While less than three percent of residential 4 44 1
parcels in Tiburon could face tidal flooding, several Long-term 5 153 4
downtown commercial buildings likely feature
second story apartments. 6 261 7
Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS
Buildings
Many of Tiburons Vulnerable parcels host buildings Table 79 shows how many buildings could be
for commercial, residential, and public service impacted under the six BayWAVE scenarios. The
activities. Compared to other communities in the analysis shows that 20 to 50 buildings in the near-
study area, Tiburon has fewer buildings that could and medium-terms, and 150 buildings in the long-
be vulnerable to sea level rise due to the bluff side term are vulnerable to tidal flooding at MHHW. When
development pattern. Nevertheless, these buildings a 100-year storm surge also occurs, 260 parcels
provide much of Tiburons historic and charming would flood temporarily. The difference in scenario 6
character. parcel and building figures may be attributed to the
nature of bluff side development, where the parcels
could be impacted at the waters edge with the
building safely elevated above and/or back from the
edge.
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TIBURON
visitors, later the condos and other office facilities destroyed. Reality would likely reflect a mix of
and housing just beyond the Tiburon Blvd. and Main damage levels.
Street intersection. Heading north along Tiburon
Blvd. are several buildings, including CVS, Town The maps on the following pages illustrate
Hall, Library, and other Tiburon offices that could vulnerable buildings by scenario. The areas in the
expect tidal flooding in the long-term. Some of these call out circles enable the reader the see areas that
buildings are newer construction and elevated with are difficult to see on the large scale map. The
floating foundations designed to maintain stability of circles do not indicate that these areas are more
soggy soils. Because of this, these buildings may be vulnerable than others along the shoreline.
able to withstand seasonal flooding; however,
parking and access points could be compromised
then and when tidal waters reach the area. Table 80. Tiburon Vulnerable Buildings
Average Flood Depth* Estimates at MHHW
Housing is primarily impacted along the bluff edge
around the peninsula. These properties may have Flood Depth Scenario
docks and other structural components on the water (feet) 1 3 5
that would be adjusted or lost first. Another batch of 0.1-1 # 1 22
homes could suffer tidal impacts just east to the 1.1-2 # 0 34
Cove Shopping Center in the long-term. The
2.1-3 # 1 37
shopping center, which could expect over one foot of
water in the medium-term and over 3 feet of water in 3.1-4 # 18
the long-term, and the adjacent stretch of Tiburon 4.1-5 # 4
Blvd. already face seasonal stormwater flooding. 5.1-6 # 1
The site is equipped with a high capacity pump 6.1-7 # 1 1
station to prevent flooding here. Additional tidal
forces against the stormwater flow could burden the 7.1- 8 # 5 2 1
pump station and may result in more severe 8.1-9 # 2 1
stormwater back-ups during high tides. 9.1- 10 # 1 2 2
10.1+ # 1
Table 80 divides the vulnerable buildings by how Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS
much water could fill the property, whether it is one, * Flood depth data is not available for all exposed
two, or ten feet of tidal waters at MHHW. In scenario
areas and assets.
1, a few buildings downtown are flooded with seven
to nine feet of water. In scenario 3, a few are flooded
at low levels of flooding, and the buildings impacted
in scenario 1 flood with deeper waters. In the long- Table 81. Tiburon Vulnerable Buildings
term, scenario 5, nearly 100 buildings could be FEMA Hazus Damage Estimates for Long-
under three feet of flood waters, with a few buildings term Scenario 6
vulnerable to between three and six feet of flooding.
Buildings in Scenario 6 261
The same buildings measured in scenario 1 remain
under deep water at MHHW. Yellow Tag-Minor Damage $1,305,000
$5,000 minimum
Table 81 outlines cost estimates for damage to Orange Tag: Moderate Damage $4,437,261
buildings and their contents under scenario 6, the $17,001 minimum
worst case storm surge scenario analyzed in this Red Tag-Destroyed $187,457,062
assessment. The analysis uses the FEMA damage Assessed structural value
tagging levels of yellow for minor damage of $5,000 Source: Marin Map, CoSMoS
and no more than $17,000 per building, orange for
moderate damage of more than $17,000, and red for
destroyed structures. Nearly $200 million of damage
could occur if all vulnerable buildings in scenario 6
were to be destroyed in the long-term. This figure
assumes all of the vulnerable buildings in scenario 6
experience one of the three damage levels,
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TIBURON
Map 71. Tiburon Vulnerable Buildings
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TIBURON
Transportation If public transportation gets cut off because roads
The first road that could be impacted is Brunini Way are inundated, people who travel through or to the
in scenario 2. Additional roads downtown and west area for work would be cut off. Similarly, people with
of Tiburon Boulevard may avoid impacts until after mobility or health constraints will be affected.
medium-term scenarios 3 and 4. Tiburon Boulevard
could expect 100-year storm surge impacts in Tiburon also features a robust boating center with
scenario 6 at Main Street, Paradise Drive, and the the Corinthian Yacht Club, the Blue and Gold
Cove. Tiburon Boulevard is the main access road to commuter ferry to San Francisco, and the Angel
Tiburon. Paradise Drive offers a windy alternative; Island Ferry. These sites can typically adjust to
however, Paradise Drive faces its own flooding higher tides, though they made need to be elevated.
issues in Corte Madera. In addition to roads, the Bay If the adjacent land severely floods, access to these
Trail could expect flooding downtown and erosion water transportation features may not be available.
along its course. This could significantly impact commuting to San
Francisco via ferry, and travel to Angel Island. In
Roads could erode and deteriorate faster if they are addition, several private docks could be vulnerable
repeatedly exposed to salt water. Vehicles can also in their current elevations. These facilities are
be destroyed by salt water exposure. Temporary anticipated to tolerate higher tides; however, storms
closures to the road and bicycle network could have are known to damage piers, docs, and other marina
significant impacts on commuting to and from the structures.
peninsula to US Highway 101, completing daily
routines, recreational opportunities, and emergency Table 82 lists Tiburon transportation routes by when
vehicle access. Disruptions in the road network they are exposed to salt water at MHHW. The maps
would disrupt Golden Gate Transit Route 8 service on the following pages illustrate vulnerable
along Tiburon Boulevard and at the following stops: transportation features. The areas in the call out
circles enable the reader the see areas that are
Tiburon Blvd. and Mar West St., difficult to see on the large scale map. The circles do
Tiburon Blvd. and Main St., and not indicate that these areas are more vulnerable
Tiburon Blvd. and Beach Rd. than others along the shoreline.
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Map 72. Tiburon Vulnerable Transportation Assets
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Map 73. Tiburon Vulnerable Stormwater Management Assets
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TIBURON
stations to one main pump station and the 50-year
29
old connecting pipe needs repair.
Natural Resources
The Tiburon Peninsula provides ample bird habitat,
Pump station and overflow pond at the Cove Shopping Center. fishing, and other open water habitats. Small
Credit: Marin County DPW marshes also support wetland species. These
habitats are very narrow and may already be
drowned out at existing high tides. As sea level
Utilities rises, these habitats could become dominated by
Tiburon will likely face utility issues common in other standing water. Eelgrass is also a critical tidal
shoreline communities in the study area, including: habitat, typically in slightly deeper, saltier waters,
associated with rocky ground. A small patch of
Underground pipes face compounding pressure eelgrass was observed off Tiburon Point off the high
forces from water and the road, bluff extending into the San Francisco Bay. Eelgrass
Road erosion and collapse with underlain pipes, beds are recognized by both federal and state
Saltwater inflow and infiltration causing agencies as sensitive and highly valuable habitat for
inefficiencies in wastewater treatment, a suite of species. They are managed under the
Continuously subsiding soils or fill, and Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and
Escalating activity, capacity demands, energy Management Act. Eelgrass beds are listed as a
consumption, and wear and tear on pump Habitat Area of Particular Concern because they are
stations in stormwater and wastewater systems, susceptible to degradation, especially ecologically
Aging individual site connections for water, important, and/or located in an environmentally
sewer, and electrical, and stressed area. As mean low tide rises closer to the
bluff edge, these essential plants would be stressed
Flood waters interrupting access for employees
by inadequate sunlight.
to reach work sites.
The longfin smelt is the only listed species recorded
The smaller of two treatment plants in Sanitary
in this area. The smelt is list as threated on the
District No. 5, the Paradise Cove Plant, would be
California species list and a candidate for the federal
impacted at scenario 6, 5 feet of sea level rise, plus
list. The San Pablo Song sparrow is unique to the
100-year storm surge. The main issues are
area and lives in potentially vulnerable habitat. In
worsening erosion and flooding at this site, saltwater
addition, the Tiburon Mariposa Lily at Ring Mountain
intrusion for sewer lines along Tiburon Boulevard
could also be vulnerable to increased salinity.
that run along the beach, a manhole at Beach Road
and Tiburon Boulevard that already floods, and
pump station electrical panels.
Recreation
The primary treatment facility off Tiburon Boulevard Tiburon is a destination for visitors via ferry, boat,
could anticipate some flooding during storm surges bike, and car. The shoreline view of San Francisco,
in the parking lot. This flooding may also create water bordering restaurants, and a walkable
access issues for employees and cause wear and downtown, draw tourists from around the world to
tear on facility vehicles and equipment. this small community. The main concern is reduced
functionality of vulnerable transportation assets,
A majority of the pipes are original, and are planned
29
for replacement, including the force main for Sea Level Rise Interview. Jan. 20, 2016. Sanitary District No. 5.
Tony Rubio. Interviewed by C. Choo, Marin County Public
Belvedere. All sewage is pumped from smaller pump Works.
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TIBURON
including the Bay Trail and ferry service to San
Francisco and Angel Island State Park. In addition,
restaurants, hotels, and other visitor serving facilities
on the shoreline could be vulnerable in the near-
term. Potentially vulnerable hotels are the Waters
Edge Hotel and the Lodge at Tiburon.
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Map 74. Tiburon Vulnerable Natural Resource Assets
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Map 75. Tiburon Vulnerable Emergency Assets
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Map 76. Tiburon Vulnerable Cultural Resource Assets
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Just beyond the downtown, the San Francisco and
North Pacific Railroad Station House-Depot, or the
Peter Donahue Building, could be vulnerable to the
100-year storm surge in long-term scenario 6.
Overall, these buildings could be vulnerable to over
eight feet of tidal and storm surge flooding.
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CORTE MADERA
Community Profile: Corte Madera
Corte Madera is a primarily residential community
IMPACTS AT-A-GLANCE: SCENARIO 6
with several large commercial areas that take
advantage of the highway corridor. These 1,500+ living units 9,500+ people
commercial areas serve the entire region and
include outdoor malls, auto dealerships, restaurants, 994 acres exposed 79 commercial
and other local business. In the near-term, 230 16 miles of roads parcels
acres could be exposed to sea level rise. By the
long-term, 906 acres could be exposed to sea level Storm, tidal, and Corte Madera
rise and 994 acres could be exposed with an subsidence impacts Caltrans
additional 100-year storm surge. Key vulnerabilities already occur Central Marin PD
in Corte Madera include: Corte Madera Fire
$1.4 billion worth of CHP
Homes along the tributaries to Corte Madera Larkspur-Corte
assessed property value;
Creek may be vulnerable in the near-term. Madera School
assets vulnerable; $1.5
Commercial areas on Paradise Drive may be billion in single family District
vulnerable to sea level rise in the near-term, and market value
1 HOAs
storm surges sooner. Property Owners
Segments of the 101 could be vulnerable to
seasonal storm surges in the near-term, and sea
level rise in the medium to long-terms. Access to
the community from the US Highway 101 Map 77. Corte Madera Sea Level Rise and
corridor may become increasingly difficult with 100-year Storm Surge Scenarios
chronic flooding.
Marin Country Day School, Marin Montessori,
Cove Elementary, and Neil Cummins
elementary could be vulnerable across the
scenarios.
Mariner Cove and Marina Village are already
susceptible to subsidence and could be
vulnerable to sea level rise surface flooding in
the near-term.
Madera Gardens and the Corte Madera Town
Center could be vulnerable to the 100-year
storm surge in the medium-term, scenario 4, and
sea level rise in the long-term, scenario 6.
Stormwater pump stations could become tidally
influenced and overburdened. If the pump
station fails or capacity is exceeded, the
surrounding neighborhoods could flood.
Marsh land degradation or loss at the shoreline
and Corte Madera Creek tributaries.
The fire station on Paradise Drive could
experience flooding impacts and access issues
in the medium-term.
Police serving the community are headquartered
in Larkspur. Flooded roads could increase
response times, and at worst, low lying areas
become blocked to vehicles.
California Highway Patrol (CHP) Marin
headquarters is vulnerable to subsidence and
sea level rise in the medium-term. 1
2016 dollars
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CORTE MADERA
Table 84. Corte Madera Exposed Acres
Acres
Scenarios
# %
1 230 8
Near-term
2 430 15
3 313 11
Medium-term
4 640 22
5 906 32
Long-term
6 994 35
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS
Housing at the end of Lucky Drive. Corte Madera. Credit: Table 85. Corte Madera Vulnerable Parcels
Marin DPW at MHHW
Parcels
Scenarios
# %
Vulnerable Assets
Corte Maderas most vulnerable assets in the near- 1 9 0
Near-term
term include commercial and residential south of US 2 201 6
Highway 101 and along Corte Madera Creek. In the 3 68 2
long-term, flooding could pass through the US Medium-term
Highway 101 corridor, flooding commercial 4 635 17
development, and residential west of the highway. 5 1,104 30
Long-term
6 1,535 42
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS
Land
Corte Madera is one of the Countys large
municipalities and has relatively long length of
shoreline that is protected by armoring with Parcels
development not too far behind in most cases. Corte Examining how this acreage is divided in to parcels
Madera also features productive tidal marshes that for development and reservation, and what uses are
may help preventing major flooding before the on the land can provide a representation of the
medium-term. Note also, that Corte Madera city human activities that could be vulnerable in Corte
limits extend well into the upland valleys. However, Madera. In the near-term, few parcels could be
unlike communities further south, Corte Madera has vulnerable to tidal flooding; however, 200 could be
considerable low-lying areas, especially historic vulnerable to 100-year storm surge flooding. In the
marshes filled for development. medium-term, nearly 70 parcels could experience
tidal flooding. Several of these are marshes and
parklands, though some residential parcels off Lucky
Acres Drive could be vulnerable to flooding by this time
In the near-term, 230 acres, or eight percent of period. A 100-year storm could flood, almost 20
Corte Madera, could be exposed to tidal flooding percent of parcels with bay storm waters. In the
and another 200 acres could be exposed to storm long-term, more than 1,100 parcels may be subject
surge flooding only. In Medium-term scenario 3, to tidal and storm-surge flooding. These parcels
eleven percent of Corte Madera, or about 300 acres constitute one-third of Corte Maderas parcels. With
could be exposed to sea level rise tidal flooding at an addition 100-year storm surge, more than 40
MHHW. With the additional 100-year storm surge in percent of Corte Madera could be impacted by
scenario 4, twice this area could face nuisance flooding. This level of flooding would be devastating
storm-surge flooding. In the long-term more than to development and property owners.
thirty percent of Corte Madera could be subject to
MHHW tidal flooding and 100-year storm surge
flooding.
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CORTE MADERA
Table 86. Corte Madera Vulnerable Parcels Across land uses, the majority of acreage in the
by Land Use near-term is dedicated to tax exempt lands, which
are typically parks and open space, and this case,
Scenarios mostly marshes. Residential is also vulnerable in the
1 3 5 Marina Village and Mariners Cove. In the medium-
Land Use Medium- term, commercial parcels along San Clemente Drive
Near-term Long-term
term
could expect tidal impacts in the parking lots. In the
# Ac. # Ac. # Ac. long-term, all of the marshes are flooded, as are
Commercial most of the neighborhoods east of Paradise Drive.
4 3 70 95
Improved These nearly 1,000 parcels account for thirty percent
Commercial of Corte Madera residential parcels. The eighty
8 3
Unimproved parcels that could expect tidal flooding impacts on a
Industrial regular basis account for seventy percent of
5 8
Improved commercial parcels in Corte Madera. This is a
Industrial significant portion of commercial properties in the
3 5
Unimproved community. Moreover, these businesses serve as a
Residential 3 1 57 28 944 152 regional center of commerce serving more than just
the Corte Madera community. Several of the
Multi-Family 3 1 businesses also sell high value items, such as cars,
Improved
furniture, and more. Of note, a few industrial use
Single
parcels could face tidal flooding.
Family 2 25 66 3
Attached
Single
2 0.6 55 9 871 147 Buildings
Family
Improved Buildings on the flatlands of Corte Madera were built
on filled in marshes that extend to Kentfield, and are
Single
1 0.4 2 0.4 4 1 already vulnerable to subsidence. East of U.S> High
Family
Unimproved 101, Mariner Cove is built on fill and is not levee
protected. Marina Village is protected to the north by
Tax Exempt 3 237 4 274 52 472 a levee. However, the eastern side of Marina Village
Exemption 1 3 10 10 is raised by fill and may be susceptible to sea level
Improved rise along San Clemente Creek first. Mariners Cove
Exemption may be susceptible to sea level rise along San
2 25 1 3 3 27
Vacant Clemente Creek as well. Further east along the
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS roadway are commercial centers that are fronted by
marsh lands tempered with an earthen levee used
as a trail. These commercial areas, including Aegis
Senior Living complex, may be vulnerable across all
Table 87. Corte Madera Vulnerable of the sea level rise scenarios, first impacting the
Residential and Commercial Parcels low-lying car dealership area and spreading
Scenario outwards.
1 3 5
In long-term scenario 5, the area north of US 101
Land Use Near- Medium- Long- including the Corte Madera Town Center, could also
term term term be impacted. While it is plausible this area could be
# % # % # % reached by storms in the medium-term, long-term
Residential 3 0 57 3 944 29 sea level rise could burden the area with regular
tidal influences. Water could also impact the area
Commercial 4 3 79 66 north of the highway from the creek system and
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS. channels extending into the city. This area is also
impacted by stormwater backups due to tidal
influences that would worsen. In fact, this issue may
have led to a two week shut down of half of Neil
Cummings Elementary School.
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CORTE MADERA
Table 88. Corte Madera Vulnerable As seen in Table 88, in the near-term, buildings are
Buildings by Scenario not impacted until the 100-year storm surge
condition is applied, amounting to 255 buildings. In
Buildings
Scenarios the medium-term, nearly 140 buildings may be
# % vulnerable to tidal flooding. And more than six
1 5 0 hundred more buildings is vulnerable with the 100-
Near-term
2 255 7 year storm surge coincidence. These figures
3 138 4 constitute one-fifth of the communitys buildings. By
Medium-term scenario 5, nearly 1,300 buildings could expect tidal
4 804 21
flooding impacts, and a few hundred more could be
5 1,283 33 damaged from storm surge impacts.
Long-term
6 1,468 38
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS Table 89 indicates how many buildings could fill with
one, two, or ten feet of water when flooded due to
sea level rise at MHHW. In the near-term, five
Table 89. Corte Madera Vulnerable vulnerable buildings could expect less than or equal
Buildings Average Flood Depths* at MHHW to two feet of tide waters. This trend continues for
the majority of the buildings in scenario 3 as well. In
Scenarios
.Flood long-term scenario 5, 500 buildings could be flooded
Medium- with up to three of salt water. More than 650
Depth Near-term Long-term
term buildings could be flooded with more than three feet
(feet)
1 3 5 and up to six feet of water, and about 125 buildings
0.1-1 1 43 34 could be flooded with between six and nine feet of
salt water on a regular basis. These properties
1.1-2 4 79 240
would be unusable in their current state.
2.1-3 0 10 206
3.1-4 1 200 Table 90 estimates costs using FEMA Hazus post-
4.1-5 2 240 disaster damage tagging levels for buildings and
5.1-6 224 their contents. These figures are based on scenario
6, the worst case scenario examined in this
6.1-7 106 assessment. This analysis assumes every building
7.1- 8 15 experiences the same damage level, such that if all
8.1-9 1 1,500 buildings are yellow-tagged, up to $25 million
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS in damages could incur. At the high end, more than
2
*Flood depth data is not available for all exposed areas $700 million of structural damages could occur.
and assets. Reality would likely reflect of mix of these damage
levels.
Table 90. Corte Madera Vulnerable The maps on the following pages illustrate
vulnerable buildings by scenario. The areas in the
Buildings FEMA Hazus Storm Damage call out circles enable the reader the see areas that
Cost* Estimates in Long-term Scenario 6 are difficult to see on the large scale map. The
Number of Buildings in circles do not indicate that these areas are more
1,468
Scenario 6 vulnerable than others along the shoreline.
Yellow Tag :Minor Damage $7,340,000
$5,000
Orange Tag: Moderate
Damage $24,957,468
$17,001+
Red Tag-Destroyed $726,321,314
Assessed structural value
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS
* 2016 dollars
2
2016 dollars
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CORTE MADERA
Map 78. Corte Madera Vulnerable Buildings
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CORTE MADERA
Transportation Paradise Dr. and Madera Del Presidio Ave.,
Nearly every road west of Highway 101 is vulnerable Paradise Dr. and Harbor Dr.,
in the near- to medium-terms with a 100-year storm 33 San Clemente Dr.,
surge. By scenario 5, all of these roads and tens Hwy 101 and Lucky Dr.,
more on the east side of the US Highway 101 could Hwy 101 and Tamalpais Dr., and
expect tidal flooding. Several of the roads east of US Hwy 101 and Paradise Dr.
Highway 101 are already, and will continue to be,
vulnerable to subsidence. In addition, due to the
orientation of the commercial sites, already stressed Marin Transit routes 113 and 117 also travel through
parking lots could experience impacts first. area with stops at:
Table 91 lists the vulnerable roads and trails in Corte Tamal Vista Blvd. and Sandpiper Circle,
Madera by onset. In near-term scenario 2, 3 miles of Madera Blvd. and Monona Dr.
road could experience nuisance storm surge Madera Blvd. and Mohawk Ave.,
flooding. In medium-term scenario 3, 1 mile of road Paradise Dr. and Madera Del Presidio Ave.,
could experience tidal flooding. In scenario 4, this Paradise Dr. and Harbor Dr.,
figure jumps to nine miles. This temporary flooding; Paradise Dr. and El Camino Dr.,
however, may not be as problematic as roads that Paradise Dr. and Seawolf Passage,
only experience may be able to tolerate short-term Paradise Dr. and Robin Dr., and
salt water exposure. Finally, in the long-term 14
33 San Clemente Drive
miles could experience tidal flooding, and two more
Tamal Vista Blvd. and Council Crest Dr.
could experience storm surge flooding. Fourteen
miles of road closed down twice a day for several Paradise Bus Pads.
days a month several months of the year would be Lost or compromised function of these ground
extremely burdensome for travelers. Especially transportation features could cut off access to Corte
considering the regional impacts of US Highway 101 Madera, leading to negative economic impacts for
flooding where it interchanges with Interstate 580. local and regional businesses, emergency vehicle
accessibility impacts, residents and commuters
Preliminary conversations with Caltrans indicate that
Caltrans is well aware of the existing and arising dependent on US Highway 101.
3
concerns in the County. According to Caltrans and
Trails along and through the marshes are also
the CoSMoS model shows flooding at low spots of
vulnerable in the near-term. These paths are
US Highway 101 between Corte Madera and San typically on or near shoreline armoring. Several
Rafael. These low spots typically benefit from levees miles of bike path and sidewalk along the vulnerable
and pumps others operate to protect the larger area roads are also vulnerable across all scenarios.
from flooding. These locations are south of
Tamalpais Drive to Nellen Avenue, and from Corte
Madera Creek to Lucky Drive.
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CORTE MADERA
The maps on the following pages illustrate are difficult to see on the large scale map. The
vulnerable transportation features. The areas in the circles do not indicate that these areas are more
call out circles enable the reader the see areas that vulnerable than others along the shoreline.
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CORTE MADERA
Map 79. Corte Madera Vulnerable Transportation Assets
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CORTE MADERA
Utilities Reserve supports one of the densest populations of
4
Corte Maderas Sanitary District No. 2 will likely face Ridgways rails in the northern San Francisco Bay.
issues common in other shoreline communities in
the study area, including: Salt marsh harvest mice are endangered because of
5
habitat loss, fragmentation, and alteration. These
Underground pipes face compounding pressure mice are only found in the Bay area, including the
forces from water and the road, marshes of Corte Madera; in the upper half of tidal
Road erosion and collapse with underlain pipes, salt marshes and the adjacent uplands during high
6
Saltwater inflow and infiltration causing tides. Sea level rise would greatly impact this
inefficiencies in wastewater treatment, species, especially if the mouses habitat is trapped
Continuously subsiding soils or fill, and by development. If high inundation rates occur in
Escalating activity, capacity demands, energy areas without upland habitat then reproduction could
consumption, and wear and tear on pump be reduced or eliminated.
stations in stormwater and wastewater systems,
Aging individual site connections for water,
sewer, and electrical, and Lastly, Chinook salmon, an endangered species,
Flood waters interrupting access for employees young use tidal marshes for cover and the feed as it
to reach work sites. out-migrates through the estuary. And steelhead
trout, a special status species, use tidal marshes
7
and creeks for foraging.
In addition, PG&E has a natural gas pipe line along
US Highway 101, Paradise Drive, and Madera del
Presidio Drive towards Paloma Drive. They also
have transmission towers and lines that travel from
Larkspur through the hills across the Corte Madera
marshes.
Natural Resources
Corte Madera has a rich estuary and marsh system
that support robust wildlife populations in the Corte
Madera Ecological Reserve, Triangle Marsh, and the
lagoon habitats. The marsh lands are extensive and
may be able to withstand sea level rise impacts;
however, because many sections abut levees, Corte Madera Ecological Reserve. Credit: C. Kennard
roads, or development, the marshes could get
squeezed out in the long-term and turn to mud flats
and open water.
4
Goals Project. 2015. The Baylands and Climate Change: What
The longfin smelt, Ridgway Rail, and Salt Marsh We Can Do. Baylands Ecosystem Habitat Goals Science
Update 2015 prepared by the San Francisco Bay Area
harvest mouse are the listed endangered species Wetlands Ecosystem Goals Project. California State Coastal
recorded in this area. The smelt is list as threated on Conservancy, Oakland, CA. Pg. 168
5
the California species list and a candidate for the Shellhammer, H. 2000. Salt Marsh Harvest Mouse. Pp. 219
federal list. The Ridgway Rail and Harvest mouse 228 in Goals Project. 2000. Baylands Ecosystem Species and
Community Profiles: Life history and environmental
are federally listed. The San Pablo Song sparrow, requirements of key plants, fish and wildlife. Prepared by the
though not listed, is unique to the area and has San Francisco Bay Area Wetlands Ecosystem Goals Project.
potential habitat in the exposed area. P. R. Olofson, editor. San Francisco Bay Regional Water
Quality Control Board, Oakland, California.
6
The Ridgways rail is one of the largest rails in North Goals Project. 2015. The Baylands and Climate Change: What
We Can Do. Appendix 5.1 Salt Marsh Harvest Mouse.
America, very secretive, and primarily lives in salt Ecosystem Baylands Habitat Goals Science Update 2015
and brackish marshes. The Corte Madera Ecological prepared by the San Francisco Bay Area Wetlands Ecosystem
Goals Project. California State Coastal Conservancy, Oakland,
CA.
7
Marin Audubon Society. Personal Communication. March 10,
2017.
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 233
CORTE MADERA
Recreation Marin Lutheran Church (emergency shelter).
The Bay Trail (County Route 17), Sandra Marker
Tail, Corte Madera/Larkspur Bike Path, marsh land All three of these sites are existing emergency
pathways, and private boating infrastructure could shelters that by the end of the century could be at
be vulnerable to sea level rise in the near-term. the epicenter of emergency and unable to serve
Additionally, on street bike paths and sidewalks are their function.
also compromised. This would greatly impact
bicyclists that ride the Tiburon Peninsula. These
activities will likely shift to accommodate the The maps on the following pages illustrate
changing circumstances of travel. In addition, the vulnerable utility, natural resource, recreation,
Best Western and Marin Suites could be vulnerable. emergency and historic features. The areas in the
call out circles enable the reader the see areas that
are difficult to see on the large scale map. The
Emergency Services circles do not indicate that these areas are more
Three emergency shelters in Corte Madera may be vulnerable than others along the shoreline.
vulnerable in scenario 6. Fire Station 13 off of
Paradise Drive is vulnerable in the long-term to sea
level rise and could experience access impacts even
sooner. The Tamalpais Drive fire station just misses
exposure under these average high tide scenarios.
Access south of the facility could be compromised
due to flooding. The police headquarters are
technically in Larkspur; however, similar access
issues could also arise here. When traveling to
Corte Madera, that fastest route from the station is
typically using US Highway 101, which could likely
be flooded to some degree during high tides under
all of these scenarios. This could increase response
times, and at worst, prevent responses entirely.
Finally, the California Highway Patrol Office is in the
exposure zone. To learn more about the sites
vulnerabilities see the Emergency Services Profile.
Cultural Resources
Corte Maderas inventoried historic assets are
located outside of the flood area.
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 234
CORTE MADERA
Table 92. Example Corte Madera
Vulnerable Assets by Sea Level Rise Onset
and Flooding at MHHW
Scenarios
Asset Near- Medium Long-
term -term term
1 3 5
Paradise Dr.
0-12 9-33 2-84
commercial
Marina Village 0-1 4-25 11-6
Mariner Cove 0-1 2-2 53
CHP
3 24 6
Headquarters
Shorebird Marsh 53 109
Bay Trail 0-34 0-86
Madera
9-3 2-74
Gardens.
Paradise Drive 0-25 4-9
Neil Cummins
25 66
Elementary
San Clemente
12-23 19-74
Dr.
Tamalpais Dr. 0-2 2-76
Corte Madera
2 5
Town Center
Aegis Senior
19 47
Living
Susan Marker
12-76
Trail
Cove
11 23
Elementary
The Village at
10 2
Corte Madera
Higgins Dock 1110
Madera Gardens
104
Lagoons
Town Park 910
Hwy 101 NB 6-78
Redwood Hwy. 12-68
Hwy 101 SB off
1-55
ramp
Ring Mountain 36
Skunk Hollow
3
Park
Marin
17
Montessori
Corte Madera
Ecological Floods at existing high tides
Reserve
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 235
CORTE MADERA
Map 80. Corte Madera Vulnerable Wastewater Utility Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 236
CORTE MADERA
Map 81. Corte Madera Vulnerable Gas and Electric Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 237
CORTE MADERA
Map 82. Corte Madera Vulnerable Stormwater Utility Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 238
CORTE MADERA
Map 83. Corte Madera Vulnerable Natural Resource Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 239
CORTE MADERA
Map 84. Corte Madera Vulnerable Recreation Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 240
CORTE MADERA
Map 85. Corte Madera Vulnerable Emergency Service Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 241
LARKSPUR
Community Profile: Larkspur
Larkspur borders both sides of Corte Madera Creek, IMPACTS AT-A-GLANCE: SCENARIO 6
sandwiched between the Town of Corte Madera and
Wolfe Grade. The community is characterized by the 1,200+ living units 12,000 people
creek, low-lying public lands, and uplands where 544 acres exposed
downtown and additional hill side housing reside.
Key issues include: 8.7 miles of roads 27 commercial
parcels
The Golden Gate Bridge Districts (GGBHTD) Storm and tidal
Larkspur hydraulic ferry facility may not be able impacts already occur
to withstand near-term high tides, as it can Caltrans
barely withstand existing king tides. The office Property
$2 billion in assessed
buildings bordering the water are also vulnerable Owners
property value; $1.2 billion
in the near-term. Tamalpais
in single-family market
The several hundred thousand gallons of 8 Union School
value
reserve fuel at the ferry facility could be District
vulnerable in the long-term. GGBHTD
Housing along Corte Madera Creek canals,
sloughs, and lagoons could be vulnerable in the
near- to medium-terms, this includes, Boardwalk
1, the multi-family units across the canal on
Map 86. Larkspur Sea Level Rise and 100-
Larkspur Plaza, the southern portion of the year Storm Surge Scenarios
Heatherwood neighborhood, and some housing
west of S. Eliseo Drive.
Industrial and commercial sites east of US
Highway 101 could be vulnerable in the near-
term with a storm surge, and to high tides in the
medium-term along Redwood Highway.
All housing west of S. Eliseo Drive could be
vulnerable by the long-term to tidal exposure.
Riviera Circle homes could be vulnerable to sea
level rise in the long-term, and storm surges and
subsidence sooner.
The Hillview neighborhood is vulnerable to a
100-year storm surge in the long-term as is the
Edgewater complex and buildings extending up
Magnolia Avenue towards Kentfield.
The Corte Madera/Larkspur Pathway is
compromised along Corte Madera Creek.
Several schools along Doherty Drive could be
vulnerable in the medium- to long-term.
Stormwater infrastructure along the creek could
be burdened in the medium- to long-term.
Access to and from Larkspur using US Highway
101 already floods during storms. The route is
vulnerable to tidal flooding in the long-term.
The Central Marin Police Department could be
surrounded by flood waters.
Piper Park, a historic land fill and current Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS. Credit: BVB Consulting LLC
community sports facility, could be vulnerable in
the long-term to sea level rise and 100-year
storm surge. 8
2016 dollars
Land
Much of Larkspur developed flat lands were marshy
before the water was channeled and land filled. This
area is vulnerable to flooding and subsidence.
Larkspur Landing, a critical center for commuting
and commerce, could also flood.
Acres
In the near-term, 132 acres, seven percent of
Larkspur, could be exposed to tidal flooding. Ten 1973 Flood on US Highway 101 and fronting marshes.
percent of the community could be impacted by an Larkspur. Credit: Marin DPW
additional 100-year storm surge. About another 100
acres could be exposed to storm surge flooding in
medium-term scenario 4. In long-term scenario 5, Table 93. Larkspur Exposed Acreage
nearly twenty percent of the community could expect Acres
tidal flooding, and 30 percent, or 544 acres, could be Scenarios
# %
exposed with an additional 100-year storm surge. 1 132 7
This third of the area of Larkspur is essential to Near-term
2 202 10
accessing Larkspur, schooling, recreation, and
3 147 7
emergency services. Medium-term
4 299 15
5 379 19
Long-term
Parcels 6 544 27
This acreage is broken in to parcels for ownership Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS
and development purposes. Parcels are also
assigned land uses. Examining land uses can
provide a representation of what types of human
activities could be threatened by sea level rise and Table 94. Larkspur Vulnerable Parcels
stormy seas. Nearly all land uses in the study area Parcels
could face changing conditions that make their Scenarios
# %
existing use infeasible and are therefore vulnerable.
Without intervention, it is unlikely that parcels 1 90 2
Near-term
exposed to tidal flooding could sustain continued 2 246 5
use, and even existing tidal marsh habitats could 3 121 3
completely transition to mudflats and open water. Medium-term
4 445 10
5 687 15
In near-term scenario1 almost 100 acres could face Long-term
tidal flooding. More than twice that could experience 6 1,216 27
storm surge flooding. Properties experiencing both Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS
would have an extremely difficult time recovering
from soggy conditions. Around ten percent of
Larkspur, or 445, acres, could flood in medium-term
Table 96. Larkspur Vulnerable Parcels by Residential development could experience tidal
flooding in the near- and medium terms at
Land Use Boardwalk one and on Corte Madera Creek. In the
Scenarios long-term, tidal flooding could impact fifteen percent
1 3 5 of residential parcels in Larkspur. Multi-family
Land Use Medium- parcels could also see flooding on Larkspur Plaza
Near-term Long-term
term Drive. Fifty mobile homes, some of Marins limited
# Ac. # Ac. # Ac. affordable housing, could flood tidally at MHHW in
Commercial the long-term and face storm flooding in the
6 10 25 24 medium-term.
Improved
Commercial 2 0.5
Unimproved Similar portions of commercial parcels could be
vulnerable to tidal flooding as residential, though far
Exemption 21 0.4
Improved less in number and acreage, with 27 parcels and 27
acres flooded in the long-term.
Industrial 3 1 10 6
Improved
Industrial 1 0.1 2 1
Unimproved Buildings
Larkspur contains a high number of potentially
Residential 67 21 99 23 586 70
vulnerable buildings relative to other communities in
Mobile Home 6 0.03 50 0.3 the study area. In the near-term, forty buildings, two
Multi-Family percent of all buildings in Larkspur, could experience
6 1 6 1 12 4 tidal flooding. Several hundred buildings could
Improved
Multi-Family anticipate additional storm surge impacts. In the
1 0.3 medium-term, more than 150 buildings could
Unimproved
Single anticipate MHHW tidal flooding, and several hundred
Family 7 0.1 244 3 more could anticipate impacts during a 100-year
Attached storm surge. By long-term scenario 5, 802, or 20
Single percent of buildings, could experience tidal flooding
Family 60 20 69 22 276 62 at MHHW. With the additional 100-year storm surge,
Improved 1,160, or 28 percent of buildings could be vulnerable
Single to five feet of sea level rise combine d with a 100-
Family 1 0.3 2 0.5 2 0.5 year storm surge. A thirty percent loss of buildings
Unimproved would significantly impact Larkspurs ability to
12 17 15 17 34 84 recover from disastrous flooding at a community
Tax Exempt
level.
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS
9
2016 dollars
10
Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Interview. Caltrans.
April 30, 2015. J. Peterson. D. Fahey. Marin County
Development Agency. BVB Consulting LLC.
Natural Resources
Marshes lining the Corte Madera Creek are narrow
and bordered by development almost entirely, thus
vulnerable to sea level rise. These marshes provide
extensive habitat for birds, rodents, fish, reptiles,
and amphibians. Changes in salinity in the creek
and its tributaries may push freshwater and brackish
animal and plant species upstream.
Recreation
The Corte Madera/Larkspur Path is vulnerable in the
near-term at creek side segments. Private piers and
docks could also be vulnerable. Boat launch sites for Source: CoSMoS, MarinMap, Larkspur Historic Inventory
kayaking may need to adjust. Piper Park is also
vulnerable in the long-term. This park features
softball, soccer, and cricket accommodations that
are used regionally. School sites off Doherty Drive 11
City of Larkspur. 2005. Historic Resources Survey Re-
used for recreation are vulnerable in the long-term. evaluation
Acres
In the near-term, 449 acres, or three percent of San
Rafael, could be exposed to tidal flooding at MHHW.
San Rafael Canal with the Canal District and Pickleweed Park A 100-year storm surge on top of ten inches of sea
to the left and several homes and private marinas on the right level rise, scenario 2, could flood three times as
banks of the canal. Credit: WikiMedia Commons. many acres. Outside of the Canal Neighborhood,
much of the flooded acreage is marshland. In
medium scenario 3, nearly 900 acres could flood
tidally at MHHW. In scenario 4, 200 more homes
Table 102. San Rafael Exposed Acres could be impacted by storms surges than in scenario
Acres 2, the previous storm surge scenario. By the long-
Scenarios
# % term, 1,856 acres, or roughly 15 percent of San
1 449 3 Rafaels area could be exposed to sea level rise,
Near-term
2 1,360 10 and 2,121 acres could be exposed during an
3 869 6 additional 100-year storm surge.
Medium-term
4 1,590 11
5 1,856 13
Long-term Parcels
6 2,121 15
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS San Rafaels acreage is divided in several thousand
parcels, any independently owned and developed.
Several publically owned parcels could also flood,
especially in the near-term. Examining parcels and
Vulnerable Assets their and uses can provide a look into the human
San Rafaels vulnerable assets include the entire activities that could be flooded out by bay waters.
Canal neighborhood and Kerner Business District,
and shoreline development and boating facilities off In the near-term, as seen in Table 105, two percent
Point San Pedro Road. In time, the impacts move of parcels could be vulnerable to tidal flooding. With
into downtown San Rafael, Peacock Gap, and Marin a 100-year storm surge, an additional 136 parcels
Lagoon. Note that recent construction at the Loch and 1,438 buildings could experience temporary
Lomond Marina and surrounding properties recently flooding. These are mostly buildings lining the San
completed projects to elevate the shoreline that are Rafael canals and in the low-lying areas west of the
not accounted for in the CoSMoS models 2010 canal. The area is characterized by a variety of
baseline imagery. Thus, flooding and onset apartment complexes, light industrial sites, and
predictions here may not be as severe as estimated commercial strip areas that serve the predominantly
in this assessment. In addition to sea level rise, residents from Central American countries. One
subsidence is already a significant issue south of single family home subdivision, near Spinnaker
Interstate 580 and U.S. Highway 101, and in Marin Point, not directly at risk until later in the century,
Lagoon, where development is built largely on fill however, year round vehicular access may prove
atop bay mud. With sea level rise, subsidence rates challenging before then. Bahia Vista Elementary
could increase. School, Albert J. Boro Community Center and
Pickleweed Park, San Rafael Fire Station 54, and
the Marin County Health Innovation campus are
some of the potentially impacted public facilities.
All Saints Extended Care, Inc., In the medium-term, tidewaters extend under the
Country Villa San Rafael, freeways further into the street grid of downtown and
Harmony House, the industrial and commercial Andersen Drive area.
Kindred Transitional Care and Rehabilitation, While US Highway 101 is generally elevated, on and
off ramps at grade could be flooded out along most
Pine Ridge Care Center,
of its course through the city. Unlike 101; however,
San Rafael Care Center, Inc., and
Interstate 580 could anticipate surface flooding
San Rafael Healthcare & Wellness Center.
between the medium- and long-terms. In the long-
term, streets and homes in the Gerstle Park
While these facilities may be able to withstand low
neighborhood west of downtown and US Highway
levels of infrequent flooding, higher levels of water
101 could flood when Mahon Creek overflows its
and/or more frequent flooding could be burdensome
on these facilities and require relocation. Moreover, banks. While previously impacted by storm surges.
these facilities are especially vulnerable to power Pt. San Pedro Rd. could expect impacts at tidal
MHHW by the long-term as well. Roads bayside of
outages or disruptions to emergency services.
Pt. San Pedro Road, such as Mooring Road, could
be vulnerable in the near-term.
Transportation Preliminary conversations with Caltrans indicate that
Transportation is a major concern for San Rafael Caltrans is well aware of the existing and arising
and for the entire region. San Rafael serves as a 17
concerns in San Rafael. According to Caltrans and
regional transit center, and nearly all routes stop the CoSMoS model, flooding occurs at low spots of
here, including the newly unveiled SMART line. In US Highway 101 where it connects with Interstate
the near-term, other major roads impacted are 580 to the south of San Rafael Harbor. These low
Bellam Blvd, Francisco Blvd., East, Kerner Blvd, spots typically benefit from levees and pumps others
Grand Ave. and Irwin Street. operate to protect the larger area from flooding.
Much like with buildings, many of the roads to be Table 108 lists transportation routes that could be
flooded first are in, or are major access ways to, the vulnerable by scenario and annotates who the
Canal District and north of Interstate 580. Residents responsible party for the road is. San Rafael has
in this area tend to live with scarce financial jurisdiction over the majority of the exposed portion
resources and can be especially burdened by of Pt. San Pedro Road, and the County has
disruptions in the transportation system or damages jurisdiction bordering the small unincorporated
to their vehicles, In addition, those with health or Country Club portions.
mobility constraints, who do not own a home or car,
or are not proficient in the English language, may
also be disproportionally burdened by sea level rise
and storms. If these residents are displaced, the
upheaval and loss would be significant to the 17
Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Interview. Caltrans.
April 30, 2015. J. Peterson. D. Fahey. Marin County
Development Agency. BVB Consulting LLC.
Loch Lomond Marina Club House. Credit: BVB Consulting LLC Third St. and Grand Ave.
San Rafael Transit Center,
Second St. and Grand Ave.,
Compromises in the road network impact transit 887 Andersen Dr.,
services. Nearly every transit service provider travels 1011 Andersen Dr.,
through the exposed areas in San Rafael. Not only Andersen Dr. and Jacoby St.,
could service be interrupted, the Golden Gate Andersen Dr. and Simms St.,
Transit and Marin Airporter facilities could be Andersen Dr. P and R Lot,
compromised as early as scenario 2. Moreover, the Andersen Dr. at Office 1261,
San Rafael Transit Center could be vulnerable to Andersen Dr. GGBHTD facility
tidal flooding in the long-term. Golden Gate Transit Andersen Dr. and PG&E Office,
routes 17, 22, 23, 27, 28, 29, 35, 36, 40, 42, 44, 49, Medway Rd. and E Francisco Blvd.,
70, 71, 80, 99, 101, 117, SR7, 126, and DH could be
E Francisco Blvd. and Bay St.,
vulnerable if they roads they travel are flooded. The
Canal St. and Medway Rd.,
following bus stops could also be flooded:
Canal St. and Novato St.,
Medway Rd. and Mill St.,
San Rafael Transit Center
Canal St. and Sonoma St.,
Canal St. and Medway Rd.,
Kerner Blvd. and Canal St.,
Canal St. and Novato St.,
Kerner Blvd. and Fairfax St.,
Canal St. and Sonoma St.,
Kerner Blvd and Bahia Way,
Second St. and Grand Ave.,
Kerner Blvd. and Larkspur St.,
Third St. and Grand Ave.,
Bellam Blvd. and E Francisco Blvd., and
445 Francisco Blvd. E,
Union St. and Fourth St.
1525 Francisco Blvd. E,
Irene St. and Francisco Blvd., Water transportation is a major contributor the San
-3140 Kerner Blvd., Rafaels sense of place, commercial activity, and
Kerner Blvd. and Bahia Way, recreation. One of Marins two ports is located here
Kerner Blvd. and Canal St., along with several private marinas that could
Kerner Blvd. and Fairfax St., experience damage from storms and their facilities
Kerner Blvd. and Larkspur St., flooded out if barriers walls are not adequately
Medway Rd. and Francisco Blvd., E elevated or pier and dock pilings are not tall enough
Medway Rd. and Mill St., for the highest high tides. Finally, several miles of
Andersen Dr. and Jacoby St., trails could be vulnerable to sea level rise including
1261, 1011, and 1022Andersen Dr., the Bay Trail and Shoreline Path.
Andersen Dr. and Simms St.,
The maps on the following pages illustrate
Andersen Dr. and PG&E,
vulnerable transportation features. The areas in the
Andersen Dr. and Francisco Blvd. W,
call out circles enable the reader the see areas that
Andersen Dr. and Dubois St., are difficult to see on the large scale map. The
Andersen Dr. and Irwin St., and circles do not indicate that these areas are more
Bellam Blvd. and Lisbon St., vulnerable than others along the shoreline.
Bellam Blvd. and Francisco Blvd. E,
CA Dept. of
Fish &
Wildlife
Acres
In near-term scenario 1, 426 acres, or four percent
of Novatos land area, could be exposed to sea level
rise. An additional 100-year storm surge could flood
a total of 1,336 acres, or 14 percent of Novatos land
area. This acreage could flood tidally by the
medium-term, and more than twice this amount
could face storm0-surge flooding. Moving into the
long-term scenario 5, all of this land plus 450 more
acres could now face tidal influences. This acreage
amounts to more than 40 percent of Novatos land
area. Even more, 44 percent of the city, or 4,250
acres, could be exposed with an additional 100-year
storm surge. By this time, flooding could extend
beyond US Highway 101. By this time, marshes
could be damaged beyond repair, shoreline
armoring could be overtopped, and properties would
unusable, some temporarily, others into perpetuity,
without adaptive measures.
Parcels
Much of the exposed acreage is vulnerable marsh
land that is typically used for public services, such as Historic flood Jan. 4, 1998, Novato. Credit: Unknown
flood control, or waste water management. Thus,
large amounts of acreage are held a few parcels by
a few, mostly public, property owners. This holds
true through the medium-term, though with a 100-
21
2016 dollars
22
2016 dollars
Emergency Services
In addition to concerns for emergency vehicle
access on flooded roads, the Novato Fire Station 62
could expect a high tide average of 5 inches of water
in the medium-term and up to a foot of water in the
long-term. In addition, the Association Office is
vulnerable in scenario 6.
Cultural Resources
In the 1930s, the 1,779 acre Hamilton Army Air
st
Field was constructed as headquarters for the 1
Wing of the Air Force, one of only three such bases
23
in the nation. The site was transferred to the US
Navy, Army and Coast Guard in 1974, and is now
part of Novato. Currently buildings house a variety of
residential and commercial uses.
Source: CoSMoS, MarinMap, National Register of Historic
Places Registration Form Hamilton Army Air Field
23
Maniery, M.L., and C.L. Baker. 1998. National Register of
Discontiguous Historic District
Historic Places Registration Form Hamilton army Air Field
24
Discontinuous Historic District. Ibid.
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 297
UNINCORPORATED
Vulnerable Assets some cases, could flood out an entire community.
The most vulnerable assets in Marin Countys Note that recent construction at the Waldo Point
unincorporated communities in the near-term are Harbor entrance and parking area would reduce the
Shoreline Highway through Almonte, Waldo Point amount and timing of on land flooding estimated by
Harbor houseboats and facilities, Greenbrae the CoSMoS model. In addition, numbers may be
Boardwalk homes and facilities, and Paradise Cay low for this community because not all houseboats
homes and marina. In the medium-term, portions of are digitized. In addition, the model treats tide gates
Bel Marin Keys could face impacts, as would Santa in Bel Marin Keys as open, where as in practice,
Venetia homes, Tamalpais Valley homes, and the community managers could close the gates to
Greenwood Cove, Strawberry Circle, Strawberry prevent lagoon flooding, likely through the near- to
Village Shopping Center, homes along Seminary medium-terms.
Drive in Strawberry, and Kentfield creek side homes.
In the long-term, Black Point and North Novato could The following sections detail the land, building,
anticipate damaging impacts. transportation, utility, working land, natural resource,
recreation, emergency, and cultural assets that that
Many of the unincorporated communities are in, are sensitive to saltwater flooding and subsidence,
near, or depend on low lying flood prone areas and with little to no ability to adapt to higher high tide
require stormwater engineering to stave off the conditions and therefore, vulnerable to sea level rise
impacts of seasonal flooding. Sea level rise could and a 100-year storm surge.
exacerbate this seasonal storm flooding, and in
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 298
UNINCORPORATED
Land Long-term: Scenarios 5 & 6
Land is a scare resource in Marin County. Sea level In long-term scenario 5, more than 8,500 acres
rise would only reduce the available dry land even could be subject to tidal flooding and storm surge
further, displacing tens of thousands of people. flooding, and an additional 600 acres could expect
storm surge flooding. In long-term scenario 5, the
most acres are flooded in:
Acres
1. North Novato, 9,800 acres,
Near-term: Scenarios 1 & 2 2. Bel Marin Keys, 2,300 acres, and
As shown in Table 119, in near-term scenario 1, 3. St. Vincents, 1,400 acres.
3,450 acres could be flooded at the average high
higher tide (MHHW) across 19 unincorporated Adding the additional storm surge only exacerbates
communities. Of the near twenty areas that could be flooding potential in these three communities and
vulnerable, the top three with the largest area several others. Waldo Point Harbor could anticipate
exposed to tidal flooding are: roughly 600 acres exposed across all of the
scenarios, which is the entire community. Black
1. Bel Marin Keys, 1,750 acres, Point, Strawberry, and Santa Venetia could
2. Waldo Point Harbor, 598 acres, and anticipate 200 to 400 acres exposed in the low lying
3. St. Vincents, 256 acres. areas of their community.
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 299
UNINCORPORATED Paradise Cay and Strawberry are a close fourth with
Table 120. Unincorporated Marin
Vulnerable Parcels in the Near-term more than 25 flooded parcels. Tamalpais Valley,
Marin City, and California Park are not exposed
Near-term
under scenario 1.
Location Scenario 1 Scenario 2
# % # % Add an additional storm surge, scenario 2, and just
Waldo Point 59 12 68 14 less than 1,000 more acres could be vulnerable to
Greenbrae Bdwk 54 62 68 78 storm surge impacts. The top three under storm
Bel Marin Keys 45 6 121 16 surge conditions are:
Paradise Cay 28 8 34 9
1. Santa Venetia, 604 parcels,
Strawberry 26 2 29 2 2. Bel Marin Keys, 121 parcels, and
Almonte 22 32 46 68 3. Tamalpais Valley, 97 parcels.
Bayside Acres 19 9 19 9
Tiburon 13 4 22 7 While not high in number of parcels, the small
St. Vincent's 7 10 12 18 communities of Greenbrae Boardwalk, Almonte,
Santa Venetia 4 604 36 Waldo Point Harbor, and Paradise Cay, could
experience tidal and storm flooding on a large
Kentfield 2 0 4 0
portion of their developed area. By the end of this
Black Point 1 0 9 1 term, 60 percent of Greenbrae Boardwalk parcels
Country Club 1 0 2 0 could suffer regular tidal flooding, and another
San Quentin 1 1 1 1 twenty percent would flood during a storm-surge.
Tamalpais 97 4
Total 282 2 1,088 8 Medium-term: Scenarios 3 & 4
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS Overall, rough 400 acres could experience tidal
flooding in medium-term scenario 3, mostly in water
based communities. For example, if protective
levees and tide gates fail, Bel Marin Keys could
Table 121. Unincorporated Marin experience flooding on the highest number of
Vulnerable Parcels in the Medium-term parcels, followed by Waldo Point and Greenbrae
Medium-term Boardwalk. Greenbrae Boardwalk; however, is the
most vulnerable, being more than 65 percent
Location Scenario 3 Scenario 4
compromised by tidal flooding and 80 percent
# % # %
compromised with an additional storm surge.
Bel Marin Keys 97 13 172 23
Waldo Point 64 13 73 14 By number, under storm surge conditions, Santa
Greenbrae Bdwk 57 66 70 80 Venetia levee failures could lead to more than 650
Paradise Cay 38 10 54 15 being flooded. These parcels amount to nearly 40
Almonte 32 47 52 76 percent of the communitys parcels. Santa Venetia is
followed by Bel Marin Keys and Strawberry. By
Strawberry 25 2 76 5
proportion, Almonte is the second most
Bayside Acres 19 9 20 9 compromised with 64 percent of existing g parcels
Tiburon 16 5 22 7 flooded. In unincorporated Marin, in medium-term
Black Point 15 2% 46 5 scenario 4, 20 inches of sea level rise with a 100-
St. Vincent's 12 18 13 19 year storm surge, these levee breaches could
Santa Venetia 4 0 652 39 facilitate flooding about 1,400 parcels.
Kentfield 3 0 9 0
Tamalpais 3 0 98 4
Country Club 2 0 2 0 Long-term: Scenarios 5 & 6
San Quentin 1 1 1 1 As shown Table 122, in long-term scenario 5, 82
North Novato 24 3 parcels could be flooded at the average higher high
Study Area 388 3 1,384 10 tide (MHHW). Houseboat and unauthorized water
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS oriented communities are almost entirely
compromise, with flood water reaching further inland
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into the narrow valleys of the south, and open low
lands of the north. Of the communities that could be Table 122. Unincorporated Marin
vulnerable, the top three with the highest number of
parcels exposed to tidal flooding are:
Vulnerable Parcels in the Long-term
Long-term
1. Bel Marin Keys, 711 parcels, Location Scenario 5 Scenario 6
2. Santa Venetia, 653 parcels, and # % # %
3. Strawberry, 155 parcels. Bel Marin Keys 711 94 750 99
Santa Venetia 653 39 821 49
Paradise Cay, Tamalpais Valley, Waldo Point, and
Greenbrae Boardwalk follow. Bel Marin Keys also Strawberry 155 9 287 17
tops the list of most compromised, with 94 percent of Paradise Cay 103 28 193 52
parcels vulnerable to tidal flooding at MHHW. Both Tamalpais 94 4 109 4
Greenbrae Boardwalk and Almonte parcels are Waldo Point 75 15 78 15
around 80 percent compromised, with Santa Greenbrae Bdwk 70 80 71 82
Venetia, the next most compromised at 40 percent Black Point 66 8 172 20
of parcels flooded. Almonte 53 78 69 100
Add a 100-year storm surge, scenario 6, and about Kentfield 52 2 236 9
1,000 more parcels could be vulnerable to storm California Park 41 15 54 20
surge impacts. The top three vulnerable North Novato 30 4 53 7
communities under storm surge conditions are: Bayside Acres 23 11 36 17
St. Vincent's 22 32 32 47
1. Santa Venetia, 821 parcels, Tiburon 18 5 81 24
2. Bel Marin Keys, 750 parcels, and
Country Club 6 1 21 5
3. Strawberry, 287 parcels.
San Quentin 1 1 9 11
Kentfield follows with more than 250 flooded parcels Marin City 20 4
as Corte Madera Creek overflows its banks. The top Point San Pedro 5 50
three compromised communities by percent of China Camp 5 45
community are: Total 2,173 15 3,102 22
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS
1. Almonte, 100 percent,
2. Bel Marin Keys, 99 percent, and
3. Greenbrae Boardwalk, 82 percent of parcels
flooded.
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Buildings Table 123. Unincorporated Marin
Many parcels contain buildings, especially in Vulnerable Buildings in the Near-term
Southern Marin. Buildings typically provide the most
function and direct benefit to human activities, are Near-term
costly to repair or replace, and contain valuable Location Scenario 1 Scenario 2
personal or business property. The most vulnerable # % # %
buildings in Unincorporated Marin are those that Greenbrae Bdwk 72 59 112 91
already exist beyond mean sea level in Waldo Point,
Greenbrae Boardwalk, and Black Point. While not Waldo Point 61 16 89 23
counted as buildings, unauthorized residential boats Bel Marin Keys 20 3 118 17
moored in Richardsons Bay are also vulnerable to Almonte 7 1 63 7
dramatic changes in tide and storm surges. The next
Strawberry 7 0 58 3
most vulnerable are development on fill, typically
found in Bel Marin Keys, Paradise Cay, Tamalpais, Paradise Cay 4 1 48 16
and Santa Venetia. Uninc. Tiburon 1 0 18 6
Santa Venetia 911 41
Near-term: Scenarios 1 & 2
In the near-term, about 200 buildings could be Tamalpais 100 3
exposed to tidal, primarily in Greenbrae Boardwalk Black Point 15 1
and Waldo Point, where homes hover over the bay Country Club 5 1
tide lands. According to CoSMoS and MarinMap, Bayside Acres 3 1
nearly 60 percent of Greenbrae Boardwalk buildings,
typically homes, could be compromised. In addition, Point San Pedro 2 2
several buildings close to the water in Almonte, China Camp 1 9
Paradise Cay, Bel Marin Keys, and Strawberry could Total 172 0 1,552 2
also experience tidal flooding. Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS
Under 100-year storm surge conditions, these
communities would experience worsening
conditions. More than 1,000 additional buildings Medium-term: Scenarios 3 & 4
would now experience storm-surge flooding, if they In the medium-term, more than 400 buildings could
have not already. These buildings are concentrated experience tidal flooding at MHHW. These buildings
in Santa Venetia, with more than 900 flooded are concentrated in Bel Marin Keys, Greenbrae
buildings, where storm surges would overtop Boardwalk, and Waldo Pint Harbor, with around 90
protective levees along Las Gallinas Creek. Santa buildings each. Fifty buildings in Paradise Cay could
Venetia is also susceptible to subsidence that is also experience tidal flooding. The top three
likely to worsen as sea levels rise and infiltrate the compromised communities in the medium-term are
soggy soils beneath the development. Greenbrae Boardwalk, at 66 percent, Waldo Point,
at 23 percent, and Paradise Cay at 17 percent of
By portion of buildings compromised by tidal and buildings compromised by tidal flooding. Under
storm surge flooding, the top three communities are: storm-surge conditions, the communities with the
highest number of flooded building are:
1. Greenbrae Boardwalk, 90 percent,
2. Santa Venetia, 40 percent, and 1. Santa Venetia, 945 buildings,
3. Waldo Point, 25 percent of parcels flooded. 2. Bel Marin Keys, 176 buildings, and
3. Strawberry, 117 buildings.
In the near-term, storm surge flooding could have
significant impacts in these communities, especially By portion of flooded buildings within the community,
Greenbrae Boardwalk. The communities have the top three vulnerable communities are:
weathered these dramatic conditions in the past;
however, these events are likely to increase in 1. Greenbrae Boardwalk, 93 percent,
severity and frequency. 2. Santa Venetia, 42 percent
3. Paradise Cay, 25 percent.
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Table 124. Unincorporated Marin Table 125. Unincorporated Marin
Vulnerable Buildings in the Medium-term Vulnerable Buildings in the Long-term
Medium-term Long-term
Location Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Location Scenario 5 Scenario 6
# % # % # % # %
Greenbrae Bdwk 81 66 115 93 Greenbrae Bdwk 119 97 120 98
Waldo Point 87 23 90 23 Waldo Point 90 23 386 100
Bel Marin Keys 92 13 176 25 Bel Marin Keys 683 96 707 99
Almonte 30 3 84 9 Almonte 86 9 106 11
Strawberry 33 2 117 7 Strawberry 185 11 264 15
Paradise Cay 52 17 80 26 Paradise Cay 157 51 219 71
Uninc. Tiburon 13 4 18 6 Tiburon 17 6 23 7
Santa Venetia 2 0 945 42 Santa Venetia 982 44 1,142 51
Tamalpais Valley 2 0 103 4 Tamalpais Valley 98 3 103 4
Black Point 18 2 30 3 Black Point 65 6 89 8
Country Club 6 1 6 1 Country Club 18 4 21 4
Bayside Acres 2 1 5 2 Bayside Acres 5 2 6 3
Point San Pedro 2 2 4 5 Point San Pedro 21 24 25 2
China Camp 1 9 1 9 China Camp 1 9 1 9
Kentfield 11 0 Kentfield 79 3 247 8
Study Area 424 1 1,969 3 St. Vincent's 10 11 16 18
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS San Quentin 10 3 32 9
California Park 10 5 13 6
Marin City 1 0 38 9
Study Area 2,856 4 3,826 5
Long-term: Scenarios 5 & 6
In the long-term, nearly 3,000 buildings could be Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS
exposed to tidal flooding on the shores of
Unincorporated Marin, amounting to 4 percent of the
parcels in Unincorporated Marin. The top three With the additional storm surge, 1,000 more
tidally flooded communities by number of buildings buildings, for about 5 percent of buildings in the
are: unincorporated portion of the study area, could be
damaged by flooding.
1. Santa Venetia, 982 buildings,
2. Bel Marin Key, 683 buildings, and The top three storm surge flooded communities by
3. Strawberry, 185 buildings. number of buildings are:
By proportion, the top three vulnerable water 1. Santa Venetia, 1,142 buildings,
oriented communities are: 2. Bel Marin Key, 683 buildings, and
3. Waldo Point, 306 buildings.
1. Greenbrae Boardwalk, 97 percent,
2. Bel Marin Key, 96 percent, and By proportion, the top three vulnerable communities
3. Paradise Cay, 51 percent of buildings. with the greatest portion of vulnerable buildings are:
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By scenario 6, 60 inches of sea level rise and a 100- one or more persons may live on, are highly
year storm surge, entire communities could be left in vulnerable to storms and higher tides. According to
recovery, or at worst retreat. the Richardson Bay Floating Homes Association,
about 240 boats are in the Bay as residences,
The following sections provide area specific details though some may be junk boats without residents.
related to buildings in each incorporated community The marina office is highly vulnerable on Gate 6
starting in Southern Marin and traveling north. Road, which is vulnerable to subsidence. The
Southern Marin, with the exception of Santa Venetia, businesses off the entrance to US Highway 101
is more vulnerable in the near- and medium-term. northbound could be vulnerable to over two feet of
tidewaters. By the long-term scenario, if the docking
Marin City systems, land base, and homes are not able to
The Marin City shopping center could face storm adjust, the entire building stock could be lost.
impacts in the long-term and some minor flooding
could impact the current Ross building. Buildings
beyond the shopping center, including apartments
and Martin Luther King Academy, could also see
impacts during a 100-year storm.
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Strawberry
Vulnerable properties in Strawberry are
concentrated in small low lying pockets along the
generally steep shoreline. In the near-term, these
include the commercial properties along Seminary
Marsh, residential properties along Greenwood
Cove. The Westminster Presbyterian Church,
preschool, and emergency shelter is located here
though could be impacted nearer the end of the
century. Strawberry Circle could anticipate storm
impacts in the near-term and tidal flooding in the
long-term. A few homes along Seminary Drive could
be vulnerable to sea level rise in the long-term. The
Strawberry Village Shopping Center could be
vulnerable by scenario 6, along with homes along
Vulnerable homes bordering Greenwood Cove. Feb. 18, 2016. Harbor Point.
Credit: Marin DPW.
All of the commercial properties in Strawberry could
anticipate impacts including retail, restaurants, a gas
station, and others along Seminary Marsh and the
Strawberry Village Shopping Center. The vulnerable
residential parcels make up a small portion of all the
residential parcels in the community. Properties on
the bluff edge may also see increases in erosion and
could face bluff collapse.
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every home is threatened a 100-year storm surge. Santa Venetia
Pylons that extend deep into the bay mud typically The vulnerable area of Santa Venetia is primarily
support these homes. This portion of the community residential. A few small commercial parcels are
may be lost in the long-term. The land flanking US impacted along Pt. San Pedro Road, as is Gallinas
Highway 101 are also vulnerable. Marin RV Park is Landing. Every building and property east of N. San
located here along with a few businesses and a gas Pedro Road is vulnerable to storm surge waters by
station. scenario 2, and sea level rise alone between the
medium-term and the long-term. This may be
Kentfield possible around 3 feet of sea level rise when the
Kentfield is located north east of Larkspur up Corte levees protecting the existing housing could be
Madera Creek. The majority of the buildings overtopped by tidal waters. By scenario 6, more than
including, Kent Middle School, Bacich Elementary 900 homes could be impacted. The homes and
School and College of Marin, could be vulnerable in business just west of North San Pedro Road could
scenario 6. A few buildings along McAllisters Slough be vulnerable in scenario 6.
could be vulnerable to a 100-year storm surge by
scenario 4. Many of the homes here and lining St. Vincents
Berens Slough could be vulnerable to sea level rise St. Vincents is home to St. Vincents private school,
alone in the long-term. Nevertheless, this community Silveira Ranch grazing lands, and sanitary district
is vulnerable to stormwater flooding, and when lands that are also leased for grazing. These open
combined with the BayWAVE scenarios, the lands are often wet during storms and high tides
combined flooding could be damaging sooner. seasonally. The school and farm buildings are not
vulnerable to salt water under the BayWAVE
California Park scenarios. To learn more about this area, see the
Ten parcels in California Park could be vulnerable to utilities and agricultural sections of this Profile.
sea level rise by scenario 5, and 13 with the
additional 100-year storm surge. Very little of this Bel Marin Keys
hillside community is impacted directly. Bel Marin Keys is a managed community that
interfaces with tidewater held at bay by a large levee
system on the affronting state public lands, and local
Bayside Acres and County Club
protections including tide gates that manage the flow
Bayside Acres and Country Club are two small
water into and out of the manmade lagoons. The
communities along Pt. San Pedro Road, each
model treats the lagoons as a continuous tidal
bordered by San Rafael on three sides and bay
system and does not account for lagoon engineering
water on the remaining side. These communities are
and management. Because of this, the model may
primarily residential. In addition to residential,
overestimate flooding depths and extents in the
Country Club features Lowrie Yacht Harbor, a
near- and medium-terms. In the long term, especially
commercial enterprise. In the near-term, Country
with a storm surge, it is possible the tide gates and
Club properties along the bay could experience sea
levees buffering the community from tidal influx
level rise impacts. Ten or so more properties could
could be overwhelmed.
be vulnerable to long-term sea levels between Pt.
San Pedro Road and the Marin Yacht Club. Bayside Black Point and Green Point
Acres could anticipate a few buildings closest to the Black Points vulnerable parcels are concentrated
water vulnerable in the medium- and long-terms. along the inland marshes near State Route 37 and
in the small commercial area on Atherton Drive. The
Point San Pedro
low-lying homes in the marshes off Hunters Club
Point San Pedro features McNears Beach Park. In
Road could be vulnerable to sea level rise in the
the long-term, scenario 6, a 100-year storm surge
medium-term. While several hillside parcels could be
could reach the clubhouse, pool, and fronting lawn.
vulnerable to erosion, much of the buildings are
The larger bay front lawn that leads to the McNears
perched on the bluffs out of the potential tidal flow.
Beach Pier will be slowly compromised by the tide
Some of the shoreline buildings have docks and
between the medium and long-terms. By scenario 5,
piers that could be damaged in storms and may
this area would shrink by about half. To learn more
need to be adjusted to not flood during average high
about this facility see the Recreation section of this
tides in the near-term.
profile or the Recreation Profile.
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Green Point does not have many vulnerable parcels.
Those that are situated around the marshes could
be vulnerable in the long-term to sea level rise and a
100-year storm surge. Only a few could be impacted
by sea level rise alone in the same time period.
North Novato
Several undeveloped shoreline parcels could be
vulnerable to sea level rise in the near-term. In the
long-term, water can reach to the Marin County
Airport at Gnoss Field, and beyond US Highway
101impacting a few business at the airport and
along Binford Road.
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Map 114. Southern Unincorporated Marin Vulnerable Buildings
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Map 115. Northern Unincorporated Marin Vulnerable Buildings
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County Owned Facilities Collectively, all of the communities could anticipate
While technically in San Rafael, the Marin County 3,000 parcels with nearly 4,000 buildings vulnerable
Exhibition Hall and parking lot area vulnerable to a to sea level rise. This is about one quarter of the
100-year storm surge. In addition, McInnis Park parcels and one third of the buildings impacted in
could anticipate tidal and storm surge waters engulf the study area. In the long-term, fifteen percent of
the creek side athletic fields and park entrance. The the parcels and five percent of the buildings in
Marin County Health Innovation Campus is also in unincorporated Marin could be compromised. Table
San Rafael in the highly vulnerable Canal District. In 125 summarizes the number of buildings impacted
the near-term, access to the site could be an issue, in each community across the BayWAVE scenarios.
and the buildings facing Kerner Rd. could impacts
with a storm surge in the near-term and sea level While a very small portion of the vulnerable
rise in the long-term. The rear two buildings could be properties are commercial, a majority of the
vulnerable to a storm surge in scenario 4 and sea commercial properties in the study area in the
level rise in scenario 5. County of Marin could be vulnerable to sea level rise
and nearly all could be vulnerable under scenario 6
In addition, the county owns or holds several parameters. Within the study area, the Santa
easements for utility equipment, such as stormwater Venetia and Kentfield may hold the last available
pump stations that could also see tidal flooding. commercial parcels in the study area.
Finally, several other county parks could be
vulnerable, though they do not have vulnerable to Taking a closer look at the buildings across the
buildings and are discussed in the recreation section unincorporated Marin communities, the majority of
of this profile. buildings could experience up to three feet of tidal
flooding across scenarios 1, 2, and 3 with roughly
100, 250, and 1,200 buildings respectively. In
Map 116. Health Innovation Campus is scenario 1, almost 20 buildings could anticipate
more than three feet to six feet of flooding. In
Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise and a 100- scenario 3, nearly 75 buildings could anticipate tidal
year Storm Surge impacts between three feet to six feet of flooding,
and nearly 100 could anticipate depths more than
six feet up to 10 feet. By scenario 5, nearly 1,300
buildings could anticipate tidal impacts between
three feel to six feet of flooding, nearly 250 could
anticipate depths more than six feet up to 10 feet,
and 80 could experience depths beyond 10 feet.
These figures are available in Table 126. Appendix
B provides this table for each unincorporated
community.
2
2016 dollars
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$5 to 19 million. Bel Marin Keys follows with $3.5
million to $12 million in damages. Waldo Point
Harbor is third, with nearly $2 million to $6.5 million
4
in potential damages at the minor level.
3
2016 dollars
4
2016 dollars
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Table 127. Unincorporated Vulnerable Buildings FEMA HAZUS Storm Damage Cost*
Estimates in Long-term Scenario 6
Yellow Tag: Orange Tag:
Red Tag:
Minor Moderate
Location Destroyed
Damage Damage
$5,000/building $17,001/building Assessed
minimum minimum structural value
Almonte $530,000 $1,802,106 $37,738,121
Bayside Acres $30,000 $102,006 $5,340,362
Bel Marin Keys $3,535,000 $12,019,707 $188,722,172
Black Point $445,000 $1,513,089 $15,807,484
California Park $65,000 $221,013 $1,508,352
Country Club $105,000 $357,021 $6,311,404
Greenbrae Bdwk $600,000 $2,040,120 $8,836,871
Kentfield $1,235,000 $4,199,247 $99,778,853
Marin City $190,000 $646,038 $24,685,548
North Novato $1,340,000 $4,556,268 $7,911,796
Paradise Cay $1,095,000 $3,723,219 $123,268,429
Point San Pedro $125,000 $425,025 $33,137
San Quentin $160,000 $544,032 $689,013
Santa Venetia $5,710,000 $19,415,142 $124,787,181
St. Vincent's $80,000 $272,016 $4,477,392
Strawberry $1,320,000 $4,488,264 $214,941,911
Tamalpais $515,000 $1,751,103 $22,654,207
Tiburon $115,000 $391,023 $36,868,808
Waldo Point $1,930,000 $6,562,386 $21,056,654
Total $19,125,000 $65,028,825 $945,417,695
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS
* 2016 dollars
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Transportation
Transportation impacts could be the main issue in scenario 3, all of the roads in the previous scenario
several communities, where shut downs and could expect tidal impacts though at a lesser extent
detours, if possible, would impact many more people of 7.4 miles. Scenario 4 adds a few more roads to
than properties. In addition to over land flooding that the list and floods more of the already vulnerable
could damage the road surface, roads could be roads to reach 24 miles of road impacted by 20
vulnerable to erosion and subsidence. Several inches of sea level rise and a seasonal 100-year
locations already experience seasonal flooding, storm surge. By scenario 5, 5 feet of sea level rise,
such as Manzanita, that prompt several-hour traffic nearly 18 miles could expect tidal flooding, including
delays. These events could increase in frequency those in scenarios 1-4, additional streets in
and intensity, potentially to unmanageable and Strawberry, and the first roads that could be
unbearable chronic flooding. The most vulnerable impacted in Marin City. By scenario 6, an additional
high capacity roads in the unincorporated 12.5 miles could be compromised by nuisance, or
communities are: temporary, flooding.
M = Marin County
C = State of California
L = Local Municipality
P = Private Stormwater Pond in Marin City. US Highway 101 is behind.
Credit: Marin DPW
Overall, up to three miles, mostly under the purview
of Caltrans, could be vulnerable in the near-term. In
scenario 2, the 100-year storm surge could impact
twelve more local roads, especially in Santa Venetia,
Strawberry, Tamalpais Valley, and Almonte. By
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Table 128. Unincorporated Marin Roads Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise and a 100-year Storm
Surge
Near-term Medium-term Long-term
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6
3 miles 15 miles 7 miles 24 miles 18 miles 30 miles
C
Hwy 101 Roads in scenario 2 Roads in Roads in scenarios
Almonte
M
Bolinas St scenarios 2 & 2, 4 & 5
M M
Pohono St 4 Helen Ave
C M
Shoreline Hwy Almonte Blvd
Bayside
M M M
Acres
P P
Cavallero Ct Rd
P P
Channel Dr Tamarin Ln
P
Days Island Rd
P
Holly Ave
P
Norton Ave
M
Olive Ave
M
School Rd
M
Auburn St Roads in scenario 5
California
M
Woodland Ave
Park
M
Rd scenarios 2 & 4 2, 4, & 5
M
Ct Roads in scenario 2 2, 4, & 5
Club
P M
Boardwalk Lucky Dr scenarios 2 & 4 2, 4, & 5
Bdwk
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Near-term Medium-term Long-term
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6
M
Berens Dr Roads in Roads in scenarios 4
M
Lilac Ave scenario 4 &5
M M M
McAllister Ave Lancaster Ave Acacia Ave
M M
Sherwood Ct Bon Air Rd
Kentfield
P M
Stadium Wy College Ave
M
Hillside Ave
M
Kent Ave
M
Laurel Grove Ave
Sir Francis Drake
M
Blvd
M, L
Pt. San Pedro Rd
Country
Club
C
Hwy 101 Rods in scenario 5
Marin
M M
City
Donahue St Terners Dr
M
Drake Ave
C
Hwy 37 Roads in Roads in Roads in scenarios Roads in Roads in scenarios
Novato
M C
1 &2 Airport Rd Hwy 101
M
Binford Rd
M
St. Lucia Place Roads in scenario 2 Roads in Roads in scenarios
M
Jamaica St scenarios 2 & 4 2, 4, & 5
Paradise
M
Cay
P M
Brickyard Rd Pt. San Pedro Rd
P
McNears Rd
C
Hwy 580 Roads in Roads in Roads in scenarios Roads in Roads in scenarios
Quentin
P P
&2 Levee Rd Waterfront Rd
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Near-term Medium-term Long-term
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6
N San Pedro Roads in scenario 2 Roads in Roads in scenarios
M M
Rd Rincon Wy scenarios 2 & 4 2, 4, & 5
M M
Adrian Wy Edward Ave
M M
Ash Wy Lowell Ave
M M
Birch Wy Mark Twain Ave
M M
Descanso Wy Steven Wy
M M
Estancia Wy Whittier Ave
M
Galerita Wy
Santa Venetia
M
Geneva Wy
M
Hacienda Wy
M
Hawthorn Wy
M
La Pasada
M
La Playa Wy
M
LaBrea Wy
M
Mabry Wy
M
Meadow Dr
M
Palmera Wy
M
Rafael Wy
M
Rosal Wy
M
Vendola Dr
C
Hwy 101 Roads in Roads in Roads in scenarios Roads in Roads in scenarios
scenario 1 scenarios 1 &2 scenarios 2 & 4 1-5
M P M M
Barbaree Way 1&2 De Silva Island Dr Belvedere Dr Heron Dr
P M M P
Channel Lndg E Strawberry Dr Captains Lndg Strawberry Lndg
M P
Greenwood Bay Strawberry Cir Harbor Cove Strawberry Village
Strawberry
P M M
Dr Way Weatherly Dr
M
Greenwood Ricardo Rd
M M
Cove Dr Seadrift Lndg
Redwood Hwy Tiburon Blvd (CA
M C
Frontage Rd 131)
M P
Salt Lndg Villa Laguna
M
Seminary Dr
C
Shoreline Hwy Roads in scenario 2 Roads in Roads in scenarios 2
Tennessee scenario 2 &5
Tamalpais
M M
Valley Rd Gibson Ave
M
Almonte Blvd
M
Cardinal Ct
M
Cardinal Rd
M
Flamingo Rd
P P
Gate 6 Dock Gate 6 1/2 Rd Roads in Roads in scenarios Roads in Roads in scenarios
M P
Waldo
C P
1&2 Shoreline Hwy Main Dock
M
Bolinas St
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS
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UNINCORPORATED Almonte & Tamalpais Valley
Nuisance flooding already burdens Almonte and
Tamalpais Valley multiple times a year. Two major
interchanges, commonly known as Tam Junction
and Manzanita, are the gateway to Muir Woods, the
Marin Headlands, and Mill Valley, where US
Highway 101, Shoreline Highway, and Miller Avenue
come together. Shoreline Highway at the US
Highway 101 off ramp already suffers seasonal
flooding and could expect tidal flooding of up to two
feet in the medium-term. The Manzanita interchange
is undergoing engineering studies to better manage
the storm and tidewaters that prevent traffic flow for
commuters, transit riders, visitors, and locals. Tam
Junction could expect tidal flooding in the long-term.
Nearer Coyote Creek, Shoreline Highway could
expect flooding in the medium-term. Neighborhood
roads vulnerable border Coyote Creek, and could
expect tidal flooding impacts if the creek tops its
banks. Of note, school aged children not be able to
get to school via Miller Avenue, which floods now
seasonally, and could expect tidal impacts in the
medium-term.
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Greenwood Cove in the near-term, and De Silva neighborhood could expect storm surge impacts,
Island Dr., Strawberry Drive, and Strawberry Circle. including Lucky Drive north of the freeway. Shoreline
By the long-term, Seminary Drive could expect more trails here and a bus stop at the freeway off ramp
than 3 feet of water at MHHW, and Redwood are also vulnerable. Bus stops include:
Highway Frontage Road could expect nearly five
feet of tidal flooding at MHHW. In addition, private Sir Francis Drake Blvd. & McAllister Ave.,
docks and piers could expect storm damage and 2052 Redwood Highway, and
flooding in the near-term. South Eliseo Dr., & Via Holon.
Transit routes are also vulnerable along these roads. Finally, privately owned and maintained docks and
The MT and GGT stops that could be flooded out at piers could be damaged in storms and high tides.
high tide and/or with a 100-year storm surge are:
Kentfield
Much like with buildings, roads are primarily
impacted in scenario 6. Roads in the Berens and
McAllister Slough areas may see impacts by
scenario 2, and could likely suffer tidal impacts in the
medium- to long-terms. This could also impact
transit services and the stop at College Avenue and
Kent Avenue.
Waldo Point Harbor King Tide. Nov. 24, 2015. Credit: Marin
CDA
Greenbrae & Greenbrae Boardwalk
The Greenbrae boardwalk is vulnerable in the near-
term, as is the US Highway 101 off Ramp to Sir
Frances Drake Blvd. If the boardwalk is vulnerable
people may not be able to safely access or leave Santa Venetia
their homes. The boardwalk is the only accessible Several local roads could be vulnerable to storm
by foot. The parking area could also see tidal surges in the near-term, and could experience tidal
flooding in the medium-term. The remaining flooding by the long-term. Pt. San Pedro Road could
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 318
UNINCORPORATED
expect long-term flooding near the primary Atherton Avenue could expect impacts off and on
residential area and medium-term impacts with up to along its course, with primarily long-term storm
nine inches of tidal flooding in China Camp State surge exposure. At School Road and Olive Road,
Park. Santa Venetia, in general, is vulnerable to storm surges could reach Atherton Avenue in the
subsidence that will likely worsen as MHHW moves medium-term and tidal MHHW exposure in the long-
inland. Finally, privately owned and maintained term. Atherton Avenue is vulnerable to sea level rise
docks and piers could be damaged in storms and in the medium-term by Hunters Club Road. Hunters
high tides. Club Road could expect impacts in the near-term
with a storm surge. Under scenario 6, storm surge
Transit through the exposed area travels and stops exposure could be felt near the golf course. Day
on Adrian Way. Adrian Way could be flooded by Island, Norton Avenue, and Channel Road could all
more than five feet of tidal waters near the stop see long-term sea level rise impacts. In addition to
locations and much of its path. In addition, SMART roads, the Black Point Boat Launch could expect a
rail tracks from mile post 15.9 to 16.9 could be 75 percent reduction is capacity in the long-term with
vulnerable to the BayWAVE scenarios. The SMART predicted average high tides according to asset
track would likely only be vulnerable under scenario managers. Privately owned and maintained docks
6, sea level rise combined with a 100-year storm and piers could be damaged in storms and high
surge. tides.
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 319
UNINCORPORATED
Map 117. Northern Unincorporated Marin Vulnerable Transportation Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 320
UNINCORPORATED
Map 118. Southern Unincorporated Marin Vulnerable Transportation Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 321
UNINCORPORATED
Utilities The maps on the following pages illustrate
Every unincorporated community is dependent on vulnerable utility features. The areas in the call out
regional and local utilities. To get a full picture of circles enable the reader the see areas that are
utility concerns for the whole county read the Utilities difficult to see on the large scale map. The circles do
Profile. Every community in the study area could not indicate that these areas are more vulnerable
expect the following utility vulnerabilities: than others along the shoreline.
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 322
UNINCORPORATED
Map 119. Northern Unincorporated Marin Vulnerable Potable Water Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 323
UNINCORPORATED
Unincorporated Tiburon does host a small treatment These systems are privately managed by the
plant for Sanitary District Number 5 that could landowner and regulated by Marin County and the
experience long-term flooding during a 100-year Regional Water Quality Control Board. The Marin
storm surge, though asset managers did not assess Countywide Plan (CWP), the Marin County
the site as being sensitive to temporary flooding. Development Code, and the State Water Control
Boards Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems
Communities in the study area using Onsite Policy regulate septic systems.
Wastewater Treatment Systems are Unincorporated
Tiburon and Black Point. However, many of the built
areas of these properties are at higher elevations Map 120. Black Point & Green Point
than the exposed area, and could be free from
impacts from sea level rise. In the worst case, sea Properties with Potentially Vulnerable
level rise could alter soil permeability and chemistry OWTSs
in the disposal field. If water levels are high and
sustaining enough, effluent from the disposal field
could contaminate the estuary. Even new shallow or
above ground systems, with high water level kill
switches, could be impacted by flood waters and
affected by power outages. Erosion could also
reduce land area available for percolation. Finally, if
groundwater rises under septic tanks with enough
pressure, the tanks could pop out of the ground.
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 324
UNINCORPORATED
Map 121. Unincorporated Tiburon
Properties with Potentially Vulnerable
OWTSs
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 325
Map 122. Northern Unincorporated Marin Vulnerable Stormwater Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 326
Map 123. Southern Unincorporated Marin Vulnerable Stormwater Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 327
areas. With the exception of Black Point, the
communities in the study receive natural gas the
PG&E. Both natural gas and electrical transmission
lines could be vulnerable in St. Vincents. Bel Marin
Keys has a vulnerable electrical substation, which if
flooded, could impact Bel Marin Key residents.
Finally, nearly forty transmission towers along
Highway 37 and a more northerly trajectory could
expect higher water levels and increased levels of
subsidence.
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 328
Map 124. Northern Unincorporated Marin Vulnerable Gas and Electric Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 329
Map 125. Southern Unincorporated Marin Vulnerable Gas and Electric Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 330
Working Lands Map 126. Unincorporated Marin Vulnerable
The few operations vulnerable to sea level rise on Working Lands
the Marin shoreline are ranches, dairies, and small
produce farms. The parcels are concentrated in St.
Vincents, surrounding Bel Marin Keys, and in North
Novato. In addition to losing valuable grazing land to
salt water, loss of vehicular access to and from sites
and processing facilities during storms, and
eventually, on a regular basis could be a significant
factor.
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 331
Marshes and mudflats are far more extensive and
offer rich wildlife habitat. Bothin Marsh and Coyote
Creek front Almonte and Tamalpais Valley, the
Strawberry tidal area and the Seminary Marsh in
Strawberry, Corte Madera Ecological Reserve
extending to Greenbrae, China Camp State Park
marsh, Santa Venetia Boardwalk Marsh, and
extensive marshes up the shores of Saint Vincents,
Bel Marin Keys, Black Point, Green Point, and North
Novato. These marshes and mud flats provide
feeding and breeding grounds for the endangered
Ridgways Rail, salt marsh harvest mouse, and the
tidewater goby. Federally listed endangered plants
found in the vulnerable areas are white-rayed
pentachaeta, Tiburon paint brush, and Tiburon jewel
flower.
Recreation
Recreational opportunities in unincorporated Marin
are bountiful. The main recreation assets that could
be compromised are beaches, on-street bike
pathways and sidewalks, dedicated bike and
walkways, and boating facilities in the vulnerable
area. The Charles McGlashan pathway is vulnerable
where it meets Shoreline Highway in Tamalpais
Marshes along Richardson Bay. Credit: C. Solin Valley, pathways around Black Point, Bel Marin
Keys, Greenbrae and Strawberry could expect
impacts in the medium-term. Many of these
Natural Resources pathways are lengths of the Bay Trail. The portion of
Paradise Beach and McNears Beach in the Mill Valley/Sausalito Pathway fronting Almonte
unincorporated Marin are rocky and narrow and are and Tamalpais Valley is vulnerable in the near-term.
highly vulnerable to sea level rise. The County of Marin also operates a boat launch in
Black Point that could expect reductions in capacity
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 332
of up to 75 percent in the long-term, when flooding
could reach seven feet at MHHW.
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 333
Table 130. Unincorporated Marin Vulnerable Parks and Facilities
Near-term Medium-term Long-term
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6
Charles F. McGlashan See scenario 1
Almonte
M
Pathway
M
Rush Creek See scenario
Novato
North
M
Deer Island 4
M M
Santa Margarita Island See scenario 1 Pueblo Park See
Venetia
M M
Santa Venetia Marsh Adrian Rosal Park scenarios
Santa
M
Castro Park 1&5
Bucks Landing
San
M
Paradise Beach Park See scenario 1
Tiburon
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 334
Map 127.Northern Unincorporated Marin Vulnerable Natural Resource Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 335
Map 128. Southern Unincorporated Marin Vulnerable Natural Resource Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 336
Map 129. Northern Unincorporated Marin Vulnerable Recreation Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 337
Map 130. Southern Unincorporated Marin Vulnerable Recreation Assets
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 338
Emergency Services Tiburon Fire Department and the Corte Madera Fire
All but two of the unincorporated communities do not Department, and the Central Marin Police
have vulnerable emergency service assets. Department. Santa Venetia, California Park, Bayside
Acres, and Country Club could be impacted by
First, the fire service water tanks and reserves in the interruptions in San Rafael emergency services and
greater Novato area could be a concern for the access. And finally, Bel Marin Keys, Black Point,
northern shoreline communities. These features are Green Point, and North Novato could be vulnerable
mapped in the Utilities Profile. Finally, Marin County to interruptions to the Novato Fire Department and
Sheriff maintains a rescue boat at Richardson Bay, access for all other emergency services. To read
or Kappas, Marina. This marina is vulnerable in the more and reference maps about access issues, see
near-term to damage. This feature is mapped in the the Transportation and Emergency Service Profile.
Emergency Services Profile
Table 131. Cultural Resource Assets Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise and a 100-year Storm
Surge
Near-term Medium-term Long-term
Location Asset
Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 5
14 sites
Confidential 3 sites 5 sites
Archaeological Sites 111 to 108
locations (no data) (no data)
(+5 sites with storm surge)
China Camp Historic District*
Pt. San Pedro 0-73 0-78 0-100
2 historic structures
National Recreation Area
Fort Baker 0-45 0-52 0-710
3 Classified Structures*
Angel Island Angel Island Ferry Terminal 0-3 0-11 0-69
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 339
The island is a popular destination for visitors with a
variety of outdoor recreational activities and
interpretation throughout its historical buildings.
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 340
flooded. Erosion could further exacerbate impacts to
the site, damaging cultural landscape features such
as the beach itself. Furthermore, North San Pedro
Road through China Camp currently floods at king
tides. This may worsen with higher sea levels.
Table 132. Example Unincorporated Marin Vulnerable Assets by Sea Level Rise Onset &
Flooding at MHHW
Scenarios
Location Asset 1 3 5
Near-term Medium-term Long-term
Pt. San Pedro China Camp State Park 76 81 184
San Rafael John F. McInnis Park 76 86 106
Santa Venetia Santa Venetia Marsh 7 710 911
San Pablo Bay San Pablo Bay Wildlife Area 69 72 19
Santa Venetia Santa Margarita Island 58 68 88
Bel Marin Keys Del Oro Park 52 58 89
Bel Marin Keys Cavalia Cay Park 51 58 89
Bel Marin Keys Dolphin Isle Boat Launch 51 58 89
Greenbrae Bdwk Homes north of 101 0-5 0-58 3-86
Greenbrae Bdwk Homes south of 101 0-49 0-55 5-85
Bel Marin Keys Bahama Reef Boat Launch 46 52 81
Waldo Point Richardson Bay Marina 45 74 187
Pt. San Pedro Mc Nears Beach Park 44 59 8
Bel Marin Keys Bel Marin Keys Blvd 0-310 0-46 0-86
Black Point Black Point Boat Launch 28 310 7
Bel Marin Keys Homes west of Bel Marin Keys Blvd. 0-27 0-3 3-49
Paradise Cay Homes 0-24 0-28 53
Greenbrae Bdwk Greenbrae Boardwalk 5-17 1-24 33-5
Almonte Seaplane Adventures 9 2 5
Tamalpais Tam Junction businesses 0-8 7-2 15-53
Paradise Cay Paradise Cay Yacht Harbor 2 16 310
Waldo Point Businesses 0-77 15-1010
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 341
Scenarios
Location Asset 1 3 5
Near-term Medium-term Long-term
Almonte Charles F. McGlashan Pathway 76 108
Tamalpais Shoreline Highway 5-75 2-125
Strawberry Brickyard Cove 611 911
Strawberry Greenwood Cove homes 2-66 6-8
Strawberry Strawberry Recreation District 511 811
Strawberry Strawberry Recreation District 54 10
Strawberry Strawberry Point Tidal Area 51 81
Strawberry Strawberry Point Park 410 92
Strawberry Strawberry Recreation District 44 81
Almonte Shoreline Highway 0-310 16-7
Santa Venetia Santa Venetia homes 1-36 2-67
Greenbrae Marin RV Park 14-25 35-6
Bel Marin Keys Montego Park 2 54
Shoreline Hwy at US Highway 101
Almonte 13-2 43-5
(Manzanita)
Almonte Shoreline development 0-2 18-5
Tamalpais Valley Birdland neighborhood 0-110 2-59
Strawberry Strawberry Circle 7-110 15-49
Waldo Point Gate 6 Road 0-19 110-49
China Camp SP N. San Pedro Road 0-18 17-38
Strawberry Homes along Seminary Dr. 3-13 8-36
Almonte Caltrans corporate yard 1 4
Bayside Acres Beach Drive 1-1' 24-310
Santa Venetia N. San Pedro Road 0-9 18-35
San Quentin Buildings 3-7 8-15
Bel Marin Keys Bel Marin Keys CSD office 6 13
Westminster Presbyterian Church &
Strawberry 6 12
preschool
San Rafael Marin County Health Innovation Campus 4 34
St. Vincents SMART Rail 0-109
Novato Deer Island 1010
North Novato Marin County Airport @ Gnoss Field 104
Bel Marin Keys Caribe Isle Park 74
Bel Marin Keys Calypso Bay Public Dock 74
Bel Marin Keys Bel Marin Keys Public Dock 74
Bel Marin Keys Bel Marin Keys Yacht Club 74
North Novato SMART Rail 0-7
Santa Venetia Castro Park 611
Santa Venetia Neighborhood streets 6-68
Santa Venetia Candys Park 63
Black Point Atherton Avenue 0-6
Santa Venetia Adrian Rosal Park 510
Santa Venetia Pueblo Park 411
Strawberry Redwood Highway Frontage Road 12-410
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 342
Scenarios
Location Asset 1 3 5
Near-term Medium-term Long-term
Strawberry Strawberry Circle homes 14-48
Country Club Pt. San Pedro Road 5-4
Marin City S. Hwy 101 Off Ramp 5-4
Strawberry Commercial along Seminary Marsh 5-4
Apartments & offices off Sir Francis
Kentfield 310
Drake Blvd.
Strawberry Baseball diamonds 310
Strawberry Seminary Drive 7-37
Corte Madera Ring Mountain 36
Strawberry Tiburon Blvd. 5-34
Bel Marin Keys Homes east of Bel Marin Keys Blvd. 3-33
North Novato S. Hwy 101 off ramp 19-27
Almonte Tam Junction 16-25
Almonte Almonte Blvd. 110-25
Kentfield Homes along McAllister Slough 6-25
North Novato Redwood Highway 19-24
North Novato N. Hwy 101 4-24
Marin City N. Hwy 101 0-2
Strawberry De Silva Island Drive 10-110
Kentfield Stadium Way 15-19
Paradise Cay Paradise Cay Marina 1-110
Strawberry N. Hwy 101 17-18
Kentfield Homes along Berens Slough 10-18
Strawberry S. Hwy 101 Off Ramp 2-1
Bel Marin Keys NMWD Cathodic Protection Well No data
Unincorporated
Paradise Beach Park Beach floods at existing high tide
Tiburon
Bel Marin Keys NMWD Water distribution system Underground asset
Marin City Sewage Pipes under 101 Subsidence, underground asset
Strawberry Salt Works Canal Water Resource
Strawberry Aramburu Wildlife Preserve No data
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 343
Several assets that could anticipate direct storm-
surge flooding in long-term scenario 6 are
DRAFT- Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Page 344
CONCLUSION
Conclusion
The Bay Waterfront Adaptation and Vulnerability
Evaluation (BayWAVE) sea level rise vulnerability
assessment examined the exposure, sensitivity, and
adaptive capacity of built and natural assets in Marin
County. Many of Marins essential and beloved
shoreline assets are vulnerable to sea level rise and
a 100-year storm surge. Key takeaways from this
assessment are:
2
2016 dollars
3
2016 dollars
San Francisco Yacht Club Belvedere Lagoon homes Belvedere Department, community
San Rafael Avenue Community Center center
Mini Park
West Shore Road
Richardson Bay Lineal Cove Shopping Center Bay Trail
Park Library Bel Aire Park
Downtown commercial Post Office Main Street
Tiburon
CA Highway Patrol Marin Madera Gardens Lagoons Skunk Hollow Park School (emergency
office Neighborhood off Madera Town Park shelter)
Triangle Marsh Dr. Marin Lutheran Church
Neil Cummins Elem. (emergency shelter)
School (emergency MMWD Headquarters
shelter)
Paradise Drive
Tamalpais Drive
The Village at Corte
Madera
San Clemente Park
Larkspur Landing Beach Larkspur Landing Ferry Blvd. Henry Hall Middle
facility and emergency fuel Riviera Circle School
reserve tanks
Redwood High School
Riviera Circle homes
San Andreas High School
Tamiscal High School
Bay Trail 3rd Street 2nd Street US Post Office-Bellam
Francisco Blvd E Andersen Drive 4th Street Blvd.
Canal Street Beach Park Albert Park Department of Public
Hwy 580 E & 580 W Canal District Candy's Park Works
Kerner Blvd Davidson Middle School Hetherton Street Glenwood Elementary
Marin County Health Peacock Gap Golf Course Lincoln Avenue School
Innovation Campus Downtown Schoen Park
Marin Yacht Club Francisco Blvd W Smith Ranch
Canal/Shoreline open GGBD offices and depot Airport
space Grand Avenue SMART tracks,
AT&T Headquarters and Loch Lomond Marina eastern San Rafael
Yard Lowrie Yacht Harbor
San Rafael
Del Oro Park, Bel Marin Marin RV Park, Greenbrae Airport Strawberry Village
Keys Apartments on offices off N. Hwy 101, North shopping center
Santa Margarita Island, Sir Francis Drake Blvd., Novato Tiburon Blvd.
Santa Venetia Kentfield Redwood Paradise Cove
Santa Venetia Marsh Homes along Barrens Highway, North treatment plant
Seaplane Adventures, Slough, Kentfield Novato
Almonte Homes along McCallister S. Hwy 101, North
Strawberry Community Slough, Kentfield Novato
Park boat launch Buildings, San Quentin SMART rail, North
Paradise Beach Park N. San Pedro Road Novato
Marin County Sheriff Santa Venetia homes Adrian Rosal Park
Water rescue boat Brickyard Cove Buck's Landing
Commercial along Castro Park
Seminary Marsh Santa Venetia
Greenwood Cove homes neighborhood
Homes along Seminary Dr. streets
Strawberry Circle Pueblo Park
Strawberry Point Park SMART tracks, St.
Strawberry Point Tidal Vincents
Area De Silva Island
Birdland Neighborhood Drive
Westminster Presbyterian N. Hwy 101
Church & preschool Redwood Highway
Frontage Road
S. Hwy 101
Seminary Drive
Cathodic
protection well
Source: MarinMap, CoSMoS
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APPENDIX A
Appendix A: Vulnerability Assessment Interview Tool
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APPENDIX A
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APPENDIX A
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APPENDIX A
Table 134. Interviewed Agencies and Managers
Amy Dao, Community Energy Manager, Sustainable Communities
PG&E Kin Robles, Community Energy Manager (post interview)
Dave Canny, Senior Manager, North Bay Division
Bel Marin Keys Noemi Camargo-Martinez, Manager
Community P. Carey Parent, Principal, Cle Group
Service District
Kyle Mac Donald, Cle Group
William Miller, CA State Parks
Buck's Landing
Bree Hardcastle, CA State Parks
Marilyn Latta, Project Manager
CA Coastal Kelly Malinowski, Project Manager
Conservancy
Jeff Melby, Project Manager
Matt Gerhart, Deputy Program Manager
Central Marin
Brian Thomas, Technical Services Manager
Sanitation Agency
City of Larkspur Daryl Phillips, CBO, Phillips Seabrook Associates, Floodplain Manager and
Building Official
Scott Shurtz, Fire Chief
Danielle Staude, Senior Planner
Scott Schneider, Engineering Manager
City of Mill Valley
Tom Welch, MVFD
Bob Peterson, Director of Public Works
Tony Williams, Planner
Russ Thompson, Public Works Director
City of Novato
Pam Shinault,
Bob Brown,
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APPENDIX A
Doris Toy, P. E. San Rafael Sanitation District, District Manager, District Engineer
Kentfield Planning
Board Members
Adv. Board
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APPENDIX A
Marin Municipal Kristin Cole, Water System Planning & Special Projects
Water District
Carl A Gowan, P.E. Principal Engineer
Monticello
Dennis Fisco, Seagate Properties, Inc.
Shopping Center
Neil Cummins
Wolf Gutscher, Dir. Of Facilities
Elementary School
Chris DeGabriele
North Marin Water Drew McIntyre, Chief Engineer
District
Robert Clark, Operations/Maintenance Superintendent
Novato Fire
Dep. Chief Adam Brolan
District
Erik Brown, P.E., Technical Services Manager
Novato Sanitary
Steve Krautheim, Field Services Manager
District
Sandeep Karkal, General Manager-Chief Engineer
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APPENDIX A
No. 5, Tiburon
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