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Japans nuclear dilemma: The

search for energy security post-


Fukushima
The eerie scene in the aftermath of the earthquake and
subsequent Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster that hit Japan in
2011. Source: Shutterstock/Olivier Bourgeois--Abes vision placed
nuclear power once again at the forefront of Japans quest to
achieve energy security. Source: AP.

Anti-nuclear protesters raise a placard during a rally in front of the


Parliament building in Tokyo, Japan, on March 11, 2017. Source:
Reuters/Toru Hanai--Protesters don gas masks during a rally on
the anniversary of the Fukushima disaster. Source: Reuters/Toru
Hanai
By Michael Hart | 11th April 2017

SIX years on from the triple reactor meltdown at the Fukushima


Daiichi nuclear power plant, Japans government has taken the
first steps on the long and contested road to restarting the
countrys decommissioned nuclear reactors.

Despite an atmosphere of tension and fierce debate surrounding


the future of nuclear power generation in Japan, the first plants
have now reopened in line with Prime Minister Shinzo Abes
controversial new energy security vision.

The prime ministers vision which was first announced in


the Fourth Strategic Energy Plan of 2014 before being formally
adopted by the Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry the
following year placed nuclear power once again at the forefront
of Japans quest to achieve energy security.

The plan envisages nuclear power occupying a 20-22 percent


share of Japans energy mix by 2030, while stipulating only a
modest increase in renewable energy sources.

Despite the governments enthusiasm to reboot the nuclear


industry, many in Japan have questioned the new strategy,
labelling Abes plans unviable given the countrys traumatic
recent experiences with nuclear power.
And less than two years since the strategy was adopted, early
evidence appears to back-up this assertion: nuclear restarts have
been slow and costly, while public opposition remains strong,
leaving the governments 2030 target looking wildly optimistic.

SEE ALSO: Six years on, Fukushima folk still struggle in nuclear
disaster aftermath

Overcoming the nuclear dilemma amid the present environment


of distrust and uncertainty will therefore be crucial in ensuring
Japans long-term energy security.

The government is left with two choices: either reaffirm its


commitment to the nuclear industry and push ahead with
restarts, or acknowledge Japan may be better off limiting nuclear
power in favour of investing more heavily and more rapidly in
renewable energy sources.

To more fully appreciate Japans current nuclear dilemma, it must


be placed within the broader context of the countrys decades-
long struggle to achieve energy security and self-sufficiency.
As an island nation located at the edge of maritime East Asia,
Japan is geographically isolated and possesses few natural
resources of its own.

As a result of this misfortune, Japan has historically relied on the


import of energy from overseas in order to fulfil its burgeoning
energy needs. Further compounding its energy security
challenges, the unresolved territorial disputes in the East China
Sea have meant potentially extensive natural gas resources,
within touching distance of Japans western shoreline, have
remained untapped.
Japans imported energy has come predominantly in the form of
fossil fuels, which make up more than 85 percent of its energy
mix, costing the country in excess of US$40 billion per year. Most
of Japans oil comes from the politically combustible Middle East,
whilst much of its coal and natural gas comes from more stable
countries closer to home, such as Australia, Indonesia and Russia.

Prior to the Fukushima incident in March 2011 triggered by the


devastating Tohoku earthquake and tsunami Japans resource
scarcity was mitigated to a large degree by the generation of
nuclear power.

Before the meltdown, Japan was the worlds third-largest nuclear


energy producer behind the United States and France, and was
able to rely on its extensive network of nuclear reactors for
around 30 percent of its power generation needs.

However, following the meltdown of three reactors at the


Fukushima Daiichi plant, then-Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda
decided to close all 48 of Japans reactors, and promised a total
phase-out of the countrys nuclear programme.

SEE ALSO: Fukushima under control? Abe is lying, Japans ex-PM


says

Nuclear power generation soon dropped to less than one


percent of the Japans total energy supply, and was replaced with
further imports of coal, oil and gas.
By 2013, fossil fuels accounted for a staggering 95 percent of the
total energy supply. This sudden shift in Japans energy mix
resulted in a sharp rise in electricity prices for consumers, leaving
Japan with a rapidly increasing trade deficit and higher
greenhouse gas emissions.
In the years immediately after the incident, Japans energy
insecurity worsened dramatically as the proportion
of domestically-produced energy plummeted to a meagre seven
percent of its total energy supply.

Japan became more heavily reliant on fossil fuel imports from the
Middle East, with oil and gas from the region having to be
transported through narrow shipping lanes such as the Strait of
Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca. This exposed the country to
heightened geopolitical risks, centred on concerns over potential
supply disruptions.

Soon after Japans 2012 general election, the new administration


led by Shinzo Abe made clear the post-Fukushima energy mix
was unsustainable.

Abes government quickly proceeded to reverse the nuclear shut-


down and set out their alternative energy vision in the
2014 Fourth Strategic Energy Plan. The plan emphasised safety as
a key component of nuclear restarts, giving considerable power to
the newly-formed Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) to enforce
stringent regulations and carry out extensive safety inspections
before clearing reactors to re-open.

The Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry was charged with


implementing the strategy, and released the Long-term Energy
Supply and Demand Outlook to 2030 in July 2015.
The report outlined the desired composition of Japans future
energy mix, setting a target for nuclear power to reach 20-22
percent of overall energy supply by 2030, rising from less than
one percent at present.

The government predicts renewables such as solar and wind


power will make up 14 percent of the total, in addition to hydro-
power making up nine percent, signalling an overall contribution
of 23 percent from renewable sources.

Yet fossil fuels are still anticipated to be the dominant source of


Japans energy in 2030, with coal accounting for 26 percent
down only marginally from 30 percent in 2013 and natural gas
accounting for 27 percent although reduced considerably from
43 percent at present.

Many observers in Japan have criticised the governments plans


for relying too heavily on the reintroduction of nuclear power.
However, Abe has stood by his decision, stating our resource-
poor country cannot do without nuclear power, whilst reaffirming
the government would not change its policy on restarting the
countrys nuclear reactors.

Several major criticisms have been levelled at the new strategy.

Firstly, it has been suggested the projected energy mix for 2030 is
simply a throwback to the status-quo before the Fukushima
disaster, with the government again turning to nuclear power to
patch over Japans problem of energy scarcity.
Secondly, fossil fuels such as coal and gas are set to retain a
dominant share casting doubt on Japans emissions reduction
commitments made at the global climate change conferences in
Copenhagen and Paris.

Lastly, some have complained the plan settles for relatively slow
growth in the clean energy sector, bypassing the opportunity to
more actively promote renewables and drive a seismic shift in
Japans energy landscape.

It can even be asked in light of recent developments whether


the governments new energy strategy is already stalling at the
first hurdle.

SEE ALSO: Environmental impacts of Fukushima nuclear disaster


will last decades to centuries Greenpeace

More than two years have now passed since the reintroduction of
nuclear energy was first announced, yet so far only two of Japans
48 reactors have been brought back online. Nuclear restarts have
been progressing at a painfully slow rate as legal and political
obstacles refuse to recede, whilst opposition to nuclear power has
remained resilient amongst local officials and the general
population.

In November, another two reactors on Kyushu Japans most


south-westerly island were approved to be restarted, and could
soon join the two reactors in Sendai, which were the first to
become operational since the Fukushima disaster.
Yet public opposition looks likely to prevent a bid to reopen the
large Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant in Niigata prefecture, where the
recently-elected governor is strongly against the proposed restart.

At the national level, opinion polls have replicated the scepticism


of people residing close to nuclear facilities. A nationwide survey
conducted by the Asahi Shimbun newspaper in October 2016,
found 57 percent of Japanese citizens were against the nations
nuclear power plants being restarted.

Given the current public mood and the early hurdles encountered,
the governments target for nuclear power to make up 22 percent
of Japans energy mix by 2030 appears increasingly ambitious.

By reverting to its traditional reliance on nuclear power, Japan is


missing a unique opportunity to divert finance, technology and
resources away from costly and unpopular restarts, towards
investing in cleaner sources of energy.

And if nuclear restarts continue progressing at only a snails pace,


the argument would be strengthened for Japan to further diversify
its import sources, while initiating a faster and more determined
switch towards renewables such as solar, wind and hydropower.

Despite the introduction of new safety standards and continual


reassurance from the government, the verdict of the wider
population is clear in order to achieve sustainable, lower-risk
energy security and self-sufficiency in the long-term, Japan must
move beyond the nuclear dilemma.
It is evident the psychological effects of the devastating Tohoku
earthquake and the resulting meltdown at Fukushima Daiichi may
still be destined to have a lasting impact on the future of Japans
energy landscape.

Six years on, the Japanese people are sending a clear message to
the government: although a large-scale human catastrophe was
avoided in the aftermath of Fukushima, it should serve as a stark
warning next time, Japan may not be so fortunate.
Posted by Thavam

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