BC TRACKING - APRIL 6-10, 2017
Methodology
Mainstreet surveyed a stratied random sample of
5,506 British Columbians from April 6-10, 2017
through Chimera IVR. Respondents were screened
to conrm voting eligibility. Landline and Cell lines
were included. Responses were weighed using
demographic information to targets based on the
2011 Census.
The margin of error for survey results is 1.32
percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For Greater
Vancouver specic results, the margin of error is
1.66 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For
Vancouver Island specic results, the margin of
error is 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
For Rest of BC results, the margin of error is 3.09
percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Mainstreet oversampled Greater Vancouver for this
survey.
About Mainstreet
With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority
Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by
elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet Research was
the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal
majority government in the 2015 federal election.
Contact Information
In Ottawa: Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Montreal: David Valentin, Executive Vice
President. david@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto: Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
LIBERALS, NDP GAIN AS CAMPAIGN BEGINS

April 12, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds the BC NDP and BC Liberals both
gaining support while the Green party remains steady at 19%. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin
of error of +/- 1.32 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The NDP has extended its lead ever so slightly said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. They
are ahead by 4 percent among decided & leaning voters - but its important to remember there is a long
way to go in this campaign. This poll was taken in the 5 days before the writs dropped and we expect to
see movement as voters begin to learn more about each partys platform.

This is the Green Partys 3rd week at 19%, just shy of the psychological 20% ceiling. However in good news
for the Greens their support is more committed, 46% of their voters say they wont change their minds
compared to just 36% last week That is movement in the right direction.

Among all voters: 27% Liberal (+1), 31% NDP (+2), 12% Green (-1), 6% Conservative (-3), 25% Undecided (+2)
Among Decided & Leaning Voters: 35% Liberal (+2), 39% NDP (+3), 19% Green (-), 7 Conservative (-4)

Campaign proposals are coming fast from all parties but theres a couple of key dates we are looking at.
April 18th is the deadline for candidates to register with Elections British Columbia - that is just days away.
Will the Green Party actually le a full slate? And how many candidates will the BC Conservatives actually
eld? With less than 10 candidates at the moment, the BC Conservatives will likely fall o our surveys unless
they are able to eld substantially more candidates.

This week, we saw support for the Conservatives take a sharp drop, perhaps as voters nally begin to
realize that they are not a factor in the campaign and non-existent in media coverage. Its not immediately
clear that those voters moved to any of the 3 main parties, this week we also saw a small increase in the
number of undecided voters in general.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Quito Maggi, President, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

David Valentin, Executive Vice-President, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

Some Polarization as Campaign Begins
After weeks of growth the Greens seemed to have
stalled at a relatively healthy 19% - and while much
of that support is in Vancouver Island, they have
gone from leading outright to being tied with the
NDP.
Not bad, all in all, but not enough to win seats in
Greater Vancouver and the Rest of B.C.
If the NDP can hold onto these numbers they
should be able to make gains in the lower
mainland. Even if Liberal incumbents are able to
outperform the party, the NDP holds a 9
percentage point lead in Greater Vancouver which
will be tough to overcome.
Greater Vancouver has the greatest uncertainty,
Decided & Leaning Voters
however, with 30% of all voters undecided.
This is where the Liberal and NDP campaigns need
to concentrate their attention the most and where
early platform announcements have been
concentrated.
The NDP has outbid the Liberals when it comes to
tolls in the lower mainland while the Green Party
has refused to participate in the bidding war.
Other proposals from the NDP now include
aordable childcare, rent subsidies and a freeze on
hydro rates - all geared towards winning over
undecided voters.
The Liberals, meanwhile, have rolled out a modest
platform that contains targeted tax credits for
Veterans and seniors and discounts for those
reliant on BC Ferries.
Where leaders take their campaigns will speak
volumes about their priorities and what their local
campaigns are hearing on the ground - but its
important to remember these decisions could be
awed.
For all of the talk of big data and canvassing
analytics feeding central party campaigning, we
have a high prole example of this strategy failing
the Hillary Clinton campaign.
Information collected by canvassing is imperfect,
relying on volunteers to make subjective decisions.
Canvassing is crucially important and tour stops
shed light on what campaigns are thinking - but
they could be wrong.
Among All Voters
 (DISCONTINUED)

Greens Gain Strength

Support Strength for the Green Party is up and
approaching 50%. While still substantially softer
than the other parties, this is a step in the right
direction for the Greens.
 Second Choices
The Greens have gained as the second choice option for
Liberal supporters while the Conservatives have dropped -
perhaps as a result of voters realizing they are not a viable
option.

(DISCONTINUED)