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Motivation
Methodology and Data
Results for the Energy System
Results for Hourly Operation
Alternatives
Summary
Motivation
Methodology and Data
Results for the Energy System
Results for Hourly Operation
Alternatives
Summary
Key data
~646 mio population
~1629 TWh electricity demand (2030)
~256 GW peak load (2030)
~13 mio km2 area
~10 bil m3/a water desalination demand (2030)
Industrial Gas X
Technology Capex [/kW] Opex fix [/(kW a)] Opex var [/kW] Lifetime [a]
Converter Station 180 1.8 0 50
South-East Asian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply
11 Ashish Gulagi Ashish.Gulagi@lut.fi
Scenarios assumptions
Full load hours
PV fixed- PV 1-axis CSP Wind
Region
tilted FLH FLH FLH FLH
New Zealand 1430 1765 1541 4122
Australia East 1733 2316 2261 3500
Australia West 1764 2397 2424 3782
Indonesia Papua + Papua 1465 1816 1300 1182
New Guinea
Sumatra 1445 1746 1193 440
Java + Timor Leste 1683 2203 2008 1225
Indonesia East 1503 1869 1467 394
Malaysia West + Singapore 1485 1835 1298 454
Malaysia East + Brunei 1489 1810 1373 170
Philippines 1503 1929 1585 1799
Myanmar 1539 1843 1591 847
Thailand 1495 1794 1360 1559
Laos 1439 1677 1248 934
Vietnam 1456 1764 1287 1838
Cambodia 1512 1810 1340 1230
FLH of region computed as weighed average of regional
sub-areas (about 50 km x 50 km each):
0%-10% best sub-areas of region 0.3
10%-20% best sub-areas of region 0.3
20%-30% best sub-areas of region 0.2
30%-40% best sub-areas of region 0.1
40%-50% best sub-areas of region 0.1
South-East Asian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Data: based on NASA (Stackhouse P.W., Whitlock C.H., (eds.), 2009. SSE release 6.0)
12 Ashish Gulagi Ashish.Gulagi@lut.fi reprocessed by DLR (Stetter D., 2012. Dissertation, Stuttgart)
Scenarios assumptions
PV and Wind LCOE (weather year 2005, cost year 2030)
Key insights:
PV self-consumption reduces peak load by about 5%
Daytime demand is substantially reduced throughout the year
South-East Asian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply
15 Ashish Gulagi Ashish.Gulagi@lut.fi
Agenda
Motivation
Methodology and Data
Results for the Energy System
Results for Hourly Operation
Alternatives
Summary
2030
RES COM IND
Electricity price [/kWh] 0.130 0.131 0.125
PV LCOE [/kWh] 0.028 0.037 0.038
Self-consumption PV LCOE [/kWh] 0.035 0.044 0.045
Self-consumption PV and Battery LCOE [/kWh] 0.063 0.073 0.069
Self-consumption LCOE [/kWh] 0.063 0.073 0.068
Benefit [/kWh] 0.067 0.058 0.057
Utilization
Self-consumption of generated PV electricity [%] 80.8 83.9 84.2
Self-coverage market segment [%] 12.5 11.9 10.8
Self-coverage operators [%] 62.8 59.9 54.2
South-East Asian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Source (electricity prices): Gerlach A., Werner Ch., Breyer Ch., 2014. Impact of Financing Cost on
18 Ashish Gulagi Ashish.Gulagi@lut.fi Global Grid-Parity Dynamics till 2030, 29th EU PVSEC, Amsterdam, September 22-26
Results
Benefits of electricity and industrial gas sectors integration Area-wide desalination gas
3000
2.8% relative integration benefit
Total Electricity generation RE
1500
Power Sector electricity demand and total annual
1000
levelized cost
500 decrease in total electricity curtailment
0
losses decreased by 32% (39 TWh
Independent sectors Integrated system absolute) and in total capex by 4.2% (59
bn absolute)
180
Desalination Sector 4.8% relative integration benefit
160
8 bn absolute integration benefit
Total annual cost (bn)
140
120 Ind Gas Sector
100
80
60
Power Sector
40
20
0
Key insights:
Net Importers: Thailand,
Malaysia West and Singapore,
Malaysia East and Brunei
PV total capacity
PV total capacity
499 GW
809 GW, +62%
Key insights:
PV utilization is increased substantially in area-wide desalination-gas scenario
Overall utilization of PV and wind resources is very low
Key insights:
Wind utilization is increased substantially in area-wide desalination-gas scenario
Resouces in Vietnam intensively utilized
Region-wide 0.8 0.0 0.9 40.3 265.9 2.3 20.9 104.1 322.5 267.4 22.6 2.6
Country-wide 0.8 0.0 0.8 38.1 265.5 2.3 19.2 102.7 322.7 267.4 22.6 2.7
Area-wide 0.8 0.0 0.5 28.9 261.7 2.3 10.1 82.1 326.0 270.1 21.8 2.8
Integrated 0.9 0.0 0.5 43.8 285.6 1.3 12.9 21.4 326.9 211.0 24.9 0.5
Key insights:
Excess energy for area-wide open trade desalination gas: higher in absolute numbers, but
same relative ones (3% of total generation).
Hydro dams are very important as virtual battery, batteries in a key role for prosumers but
also on the grid level and gas storages for balancing periods of wind and solar shortages
A-CAES important for region-wide and country-wide scenarios, however trading within
regions is lower in cost than A-CAES
South-East Asian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply
34 Ashish Gulagi Ashish.Gulagi@lut.fi
Agenda
Motivation
Methodology and Data
Results for the Energy System
Results for Hourly Operation
Alternatives
Summary
Key insights:
Thailand imports 22 TWh of electricity from the grid
(neighbouring regions)
own generation is based on PV (prosumer, single-axis)
batteries and A-CAES charged during daytime and
discharged in afternoon (only batteries) and evening (both)
South-East Asian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply
36 Ashish Gulagi Ashish.Gulagi@lut.fi
Results
GW Net exporter region Myanmar
Key insights:
Myanmar exports 15 TWh of electricity to the grid (neighbouring
regions)
Energy mix is mainly based on PV (prosumers), hydro dams and
biomass
Batteries shift PV-based electricity in the afternoon and night
Hydro dams and biomass is used flexibly in hours of no PV
South-East Asian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply
37 Ashish Gulagi Ashish.Gulagi@lut.fi
Results
Energy flow of the System of area-wide open trade desalination gas (2030)
Energy Flow of the system in TWh
Key insights:
PV is the major energy source (prosumers contribute significantly)
Wind energy and biomass are further major energy sources
Low fraction to be stored or traded within regions via grids
Motivation
Methodology and Data
Results for the Energy System
Results for Hourly Operation
Alternatives
Summary
Key insights
PV-Wind-Gas is the least cost option (with existing hydro)
nuclear and coal-CCS is too expensive
nuclear and coal-CCS are high risk technologies
high value added for PV-Wind due to higher capacities needed
South-East Asian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply source: Agora Energiewende, 2014. Comparing the Cost of Low-Carbon
40 Ashish Gulagi Ashish.Gulagi@lut.fi Technologies: What is the Cheapest option, Berlin
Comparison to latest IEA report on SE Asia
Key insights:
IEA does not assume any major change in the energy mix
IEA uses outdated (much too high) PV capex numbers, since in 2015 the PV
capex is around 1000 /kWp (<< 1600 USD/kWp in 2030)
IEA numbers include subsidies for coal and gas, due to no CO2 price and heavy
metal emissions (reason for coal decline and PV and wind investments in China)
Country-wide scenario for 100% RE is 67 /MWh for 2030 compared to about 73
USD/MWh for IEA mix for 2040 (assuming 80 USD/t for coal and 10 USD/MBtu for
gas) with substantial higher risk for stranded investments
Policy recommendation seems to be careless!
South-East Asian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply
41 Ashish Gulagi Ashish.Gulagi@lut.fi
Agenda
Motivation
Methodology and Data
Results for the Energy System
Results for Hourly Operation
Alternatives
Summary
The authors gratefully acknowledge the public financing of Tekes, the Finnish Funding
Agency for Innovation, for the Neo-Carbon Energy project under the number 40101/14.
Back-up Slides
Results
Energy flow of the System of region-wide open trade scenario (2030)
Energy Flow of the system in TWh
Key insights:
For region-wide open trade scenario CSP and thermal storages do
not play a significant role
PV in total is the major energy source
Storage requirements are limited and mainly based on batteries
Biogas used for flexible balancing
Key insights:
Decrease in the overall losses due to storage
System configuration quite similar to region-wide
scenario, due to limited grid utilization
Key insights:
Full utilization of hydro capacities in all regions except New Zealand
Hydro capacity usage is decreased slightly in the area-wide open trade
desalination gas scenario.
South-East Asian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply
48 Ashish Gulagi Ashish.Gulagi@lut.fi
Results
Resource utilization area-wide open trade and area-wide desalination gas
Area-wide open trade Area-wide open trade desalination gas
Key insights:
Hydro capacity is decreased despite an upper limit 50% higher than the actual
capacity in the area-wide open trade desalination gas scenario
PV and wind LCOE are more competitive than hydro RoR and dams, despite of
the flexibility of dams
South-East Asian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply
49 Ashish Gulagi Ashish.Gulagi@lut.fi