DM Process

Identify problem Reasoning/analysis Calculate consequences Making

decision Improve experience

Kepner-Tregoe Problem solving and DM process

Situation analysis
Problem analysis (past): avoid jumping to cause (what is the faults?)
Decision analysis (present): balance benefits and risks (how to correct the
faults?)
Potential problem analysis (future): avoid reactive action (how to prevent
future faults?)

Each problem measure by: time, trend and impact (high medium low)

PA: what where when and how (is and is not)

DA: must and want (must is priority)
PPA: potential problem, possible cause, preventive action, and contingent
action

AHP

Uji prosedur
Buat matrix pair comparison, jumlahkan per kolom
Matrik asli dibagi total kolom (jumlahnya harus 1)
Masing2 row di average dapet eigen factor

Uji konsistensi
Eigen A, dikalikan matriks asli A, dst
Matriks kedua (yang sudah dibagi kolom) kemudian dibagi dengan eigen
factor masing-masing = menjadi lamda
Kemudian lamda di average = menjadi lamda max
CI = (lamda max n) / (n-1)
RI = given
CR = CI / RI
CR (dibawah 0.10 = terima)

Matrik comparison untuk criteria

- Matriks asli, kemudian cari total kolom
- Matriks asli bagi total kolom
- Cari eigen factor per row
- Bikin hierarchy baru (isinya semuanya eigen factor mulai dari criteria dan alternative)
- Terakhir masing-masing eigen factor, untuk eigen A dikalikan dengan semua eigen di criteria
kemudian dijumlahkan, dst
- Untuk hasil yang terbesar itu adalah best solution
- Total hasilnya harus sama dengan 1
Decision Analysis

BikinSON (state of nature) atau matriks pay of

- Maximax decision criterion (tiap row dicari income yang max) pilih yang paling max
- Maximin decision criterion (tiap row dicari income yang min) pilih yang paling max
- The Maximum Likelyhood Criterion (cari probability yang terbesar, kemudian di
kolom itu cari pay off yang tertinggi)
- Bayes Decision Rule, cari expected value = (prior prob x pay off), cari yang max

Posterior probability
- New events = FSS (favorable seismic sounding) and USS (un-favorable)

Posterior Probability Formula (example) = cara bacanya

- P(FSS|Oil) = P(FSS&Oil) / P(Oil)

- P(FSS|Dry) = P(FSS&Dry) / P(Dry)
- P(Oil|FSS) = P(Oil&FSS) / P(FSS)
- P(Dry|FSS) = P(Dry&FSS) / P(FSS)
- P(Oil|USS) = P(Oil&USS) / P(USS)
- P(Dry|USS) = P(Dry&USS) / P(USS)
- P(FSS&Oil) = P(Oil&FSS) Law of Probability
P(FSS) only P(USS) only

Delphi Method
The Delphi Method is a group decision making technique to achieve a
consensus among group members through a series of questionnaires. The
answers are summarized and sent back to the group members along with
the next questionnaire. This process is repeated until a group consensus is
reached.
The Delphi method is especially useful for futuristic Projects, Top secret
and complex military, time & cost constraints, face-to-face meetings
difficult, heterogeneity of the participants, preserved and anonymity, no
clear-cut resolution