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Single-hit kill probability Ph = 1 0.

5^(RL/CEP)^2

This is a one-on-one target, and its probability depends on the


Lethal radius = RL
Circular error probable = CEP

So basically, lethal radius is a circle on a x-y graph, whatever is what in it will


have a probability to hitting. What does it depend on?

-Overpressure
-The bigger the lethal radius is, then the lower the overpressure
- > RL, bigger kill probability

-CEP is a measure of accuracy of the weapon, We have many of these ticks


(impact points, a warhead goes with independent trials of like 1000) on a
graph and then we draw a circle around 50% of them. And then the radius is
the CEP.

-The smaller your warhead, the smaller your CEP because it has less impact
areas.
-Lower CEP, Higher pH
-Higher RL, Higher pH

if RL and CEP are =, 50% pH


RL > CEP , pH > 50%
RL < CEP pH < 50%

rL = 200m / weapons
CEP = 100 m

pH = 1 0.5^(200/100)^2
=0.9375

What if we have multiple targets?

Our enemy has 8 targets, and we have 8 warheads on 8 missiles

Do 1 on 1 8x,

So Psuccess = (0.9375)^8, aka the warheads if theyre all identical and you
hit them all at targets 8 times, then it should hit 8 in order = 0.6.
MIRv

8 missiles with 8 targets,

but we have 3 warheads on each missile, so we really have 24 warheads with


8 missiles

24 warheads, 8 missiles

8 targets

pH (3 on 1) = probability that at least 1 of the 3 destroys the target

so 1 probability that none hit.

1 P(all miss) = 1 (1- 0.9375)^3 we want to do 3 times because we have


3 warheads on each

=0.9998

now we take this and do it 8 times, (0.9998)^8 = 0.9984

More warheads on missiles gives higher probability, and the chance to use
multiple warheads for the same targets.

Do you want to freak out your adversary into nuclear war, or downplay?

Save 1 Missile (3 warheads)

21 warheads
7 missiles

8 targets

we can do 6 3 on 1s, which gets you 18, but then you have 3 leftover for
individual targets.

So we have

5 (3 on 1) = 15 warheads
3 (2 on 1) = 6 warheads

= 21 warheads

Better to do:
3 (2 on 1) 6 warheads

pH(2 on 1) = 1 (1 0.9375)^2
= 0.996

Psuccess = Ph(2 on 1) ^3 * Ph(3 on 1)^5

= (.996)^3 + (.9998)^5

= .987

Why would you want to MIRv versus not MIRv for long-range ICBMs?

-To show status


-They could have miniaturized their warheads

T = 2pi sqrt( (Re + Hs)^3 / G* Me)

Hs = height of satellite above the earth


Me = mass of the earth
Re = radius of the earth
G = gravitational constant

T = oribital period

2pi sqrt( (6380 x 10^3 m + 600 x 10^3 m)^3 / ((6.674 x 10^-11 m^3 / kg s
^2 ) * (5.972 x 10^24 kg)) )

we are left with units of 6000 s or 1.67 hours

-It has become doable because satellites are much lighter, so we can have
more in space.
-for T = 24 hours, we need a height of 36,000 km ; and it is hard to get an
optical ability with the ground

if we want 50 cm resolution, we can calculate the aperture size for this with
the specified height of 36,000 km

d = 1.22 * lambda * (h / x), using height of 36000 x 10^3 m and then 0.5 m
for x, and then lamba * 1.22 is 1.221550 x 10^-9
we get an aperture of 48 m

Missile verification: use imagery over time to see if the doors to silos are still
functional

Deploy a parachute to increase accuracy BS61,