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T
URSULA M ARCHIONI he growth of index investing broadly used as a gauge for market sentiment,
is a director and head of has been one of the key trends allowing for a measure of a specific market
iShares EMEA Equity
in financial markets over recent or segment behavior; they can be used as a
Strategy & ETP Research
at BlackRock in London, decades. Since the launch of the tool for performance measurementhelping
U.K. first index fund in the early 1970s, indexing investors to measure the average risk/
ursula.marchioni@blackrock.com has expanded to account globally for over return achieved by a market, and to assess
5.3 trillion USD1 of assets under manage- the outperformance of an active strategy.
SOFIA A NTROPOVA ment (AUM) in retail funds and exchange- Furthermore, by representing key drivers
is a director and invest-
ment strategist at Black-
traded funds (ETFs) alone. In the U.S., index of investment returnsthrough style, size,
Rock in London, U.K. mutual funds and exchange-traded products sector, and country indicesindices can
sofia.antropova@blackrock.com (ETPs)of which ETFs are the largest cate- help investors achieve a more focused asset
goryboast a total of almost 4 trillion USD allocation strategy, as portfolio performance
CATHERINE in AUM, or 28% of the retail asset manage- can be properly attributed to the different
MCNAUGHT ment industry. In Europe, this category of underlying return drivers.
is vice president and
investment strategist at assets has almost tripled over the last 10 years, A third driverand the main focus
BlackRock in London, rising from 4.5% of total AUM in 2004 to of this articlelies in the ever-increasing
U.K. 12.6% in 2014, or 952 billion USD.2 range of available index strategies and in
catherine.mcnaught@blackrock. This stellar growth in index investing the capacity these solutions have to evolve
com can be linked to several drivers. The first and adapt to varying market conditions and
driver is the breadth of benefits delivered by investor needs. From the creation of the first
these strategies to investors. Index investing index, a price-weighted instrument to mea-
may reduce portfolio risk through diversifi- sure the performance of the U.S. railway
cation, as indices are made up of a broad set sector introduced by Dow and Jones in 1884,3
of individual securities; turnover and trans- we can now identify more than one million
action costs can be controlled by embedding indices available today in the equity space.4
dedicated pre-defined rules within the index; As this number indicates, the concept of
index strategies can be efficiently included index investing is continuously expanding,
within portfolio risk-management frame- as the evolution of financial markets and that
works, as their risk and return drivers are of providers research allows for new applica-
comparatively easy to model and monitor. tions for investors.
A second driver behind the growth Traditional beta is often identified with a
in index investing is the breadth of appli- market capitalization-weighted approach to
cations for indices. Indices are nowadays equity investing; which has its foundations
SMART BETA STRATEGIES AS OUTCOME-ORIENTED SOLUTIONS IN THE EQUITY SPACE SUMMER 2015
60 billion USD in AUM;12 in Europe, we observe an Historical ETP f lows illustrate the continued
identical picture, with ETFs tracking dividend strategies growth over the last five years. The trend continues in
and accounting to over 5.5 billion USD13 in AUM. 2015, with YTD ETP f lows into global smart beta ETPs
Minimum-volatility, equally weighted, and multi- contributing to 28% of the total equity ETP f lows so
factor exposures are the next most popular smart beta farwhile only representing 11% of the total assets.15
solutions delivered in ETP format. Specifically, after Based on this growth, a series of questions is cur-
the launch of the first minimum-volatility ETF in 2011, rently under discussion among investors, academics, and
these trackers now account for over 12% of the smart market practitioners. Are smart beta solutions superior to
beta equity ETP AUM, globally.14 traditional beta, as the adjective smart implies? Should
investors consider substituting a significant portion
EXHIBIT 1
Global Equity ETPs AUM: Traditional and Smart Beta
Source: BlackRock ETP Landscape. As of the end of Mar-2015. AUM for the two categories are measured in USD. Figures in brackets represent the
compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of the assets since the end of 2009.
EXHIBIT 2
Global Equity ETP Flows: Traditional and Smart Beta
ETPs have seen continued growth over the last 5 years, with global smart beta f lows growing faster in 2015 YTD.
Source: BlackRock ETP Landscape. As of the end of Mar-2015. Flows for the two categories are measured in USD.
SMART BETA STRATEGIES AS OUTCOME-ORIENTED SOLUTIONS IN THE EQUITY SPACE SUMMER 2015
EXHIBITS 3 AND 4
Comparative Behavior of the S&P 500 and the S&P 500 Equally Weighted Gross Total Return Indices, Before
and After the Dot-Com Bubble
Notes: As implied by its name, this latter index invests in the same 500 companies included in the traditional index, however each of them has the same
weight in the benchmark index.
Source: Bloomberg, BlackRock. Based on USD denominated gross total return indices. Index values in the bottom charts have been re-based to 100 as of
31-Dec-1999 and 31-Mar-2000, respectively, in order to measure and compare index performances. Past performance is not an indicator of future results.
Source: Bloomberg, BlackRock. Based on USD denominated net total return indices. Index values have been re-based to 100 as of 31-Oct-2007. Past
performance is not an indicator of future results.
equally weighted strategies. The weights of index con- Turnover can also be significantly higher than that of
stituents within fundamental strategies are based on fun- the respective traditional index, further increasing the
damental indicators such as a companys sales, cash f low, importance of thoughtful implementation that mind-
or book value. Security weights in equally weighted fully trades return, risk, and cost.
strategies, as the name implies, is determined
by 1/n, with each security receiving the
same weight. Both methodologies result in E X H I B I T 6
a bias towards smaller, more value-oriented Asymmetrical Performance of Minimum Volatility Strategies
securities. These factor biases help explain
the majority of the strategies relative per-
formance, as both value and size have been
demonstrated to earn a return premium
over the long term.21 Exhibit 8 compares
the performance of the MSCI World Value
Weighted Index (a fundamentally weighted
strategy) compared to the standard MSCI
World Index, illustrating the impact of these
implicit style biases on index performance.
While the biases towards value-
oriented and smaller companies may result
in strong long-term performance, they also
increase the complexity of implementation.
Smaller names are generally less liquid, Source: Morningstar. Based on monthly index returns from 1-Dec-20091-Dec-2014. Past per-
with higher potential transactions costs. formance is not an indicator of future results. MSCI USA MV Index was launched on 30-May-
2008, all other MSCI MV Indices above incepted on 30-Nov-2009.
SMART BETA STRATEGIES AS OUTCOME-ORIENTED SOLUTIONS IN THE EQUITY SPACE SUMMER 2015
EXHIBIT 7
Rallying Markets Present Challenges for Minimum Volatility Strategies
Source: Bloomberg,BlackRock. For the period 9-Mar-200915-Apr-2010. Based on USD denominated net total return indices. Index values have been
re-based to 100 as of 9-Mar-2009. Past performance is not an indicator of future results.
EXHIBIT 8
Comparative Behavior of the MSCI World and the MSCI World Enhanced Value Indices
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, BlackRock. Based on USD denominated Net total return indices as of the end of Mar-2015. Index values have been re-based
to 100 as of 1-Jan-2011. Past performance is not an indicator of future results.
SMART BETA STRATEGIES AS OUTCOME-ORIENTED SOLUTIONS IN THE EQUITY SPACE SUMMER 2015
EXHIBIT 10
Cumulative Active Returns for Minimum Volatility and Quality Indices
Source: Bloomberg, BlackRock. As of the end of March 2015. Based on USD denominated net total return indices. Risk premiums measured as the rela-
tive performance of the World Minimum Volatility and the World Quality indices with respect to the parent MSCI World Index. Minimum Volatility:
MSCI World Minimum Volatility Index (M00IWO$O Index), Quality: MSCI World Sector Neutral Quality Index (M1WONQ Index). Past per-
formance is not an indicator of future results.
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, BlackRock. As of the end of Mar-2015. Based on USD denominated net total return indices.
Index values have been re-based to 100 as at 1-Jan-2001. Past performance is not an indicator of future results.
EXHIBIT 13
Factor Investing Across Business Cycles
Source: BlackRock. The chart above is an indicative illustration by the authors of various phases of macro-economic/business cycles and the factors that
could potentially produce better returns in each stage.
express an investment view. Other investors are more Multi-factor strategies, for example, are designed to be
interested in well-diversified strategies that have been a part of investors long-term core holdings.
devised by an asset manager or index provider that seeks For more tactically minded investors, the distinct
to perform well in a variety of market environments. cyclicality of style factors, along with their historically
SMART BETA STRATEGIES AS OUTCOME-ORIENTED SOLUTIONS IN THE EQUITY SPACE SUMMER 2015
low correlations with each other, can make single factor return. For example, Exhibit 14 compares the historical
strategies a useful tool to implement investment views performance of two bespoke factor portfolios, compared
or hedge risks along factor dimensions. Certain factors to the standard MSCI World Index. The defensive
tend to be naturally pro-cyclical (such as Value, Size factor portfolio includes quality and minimum volatility,
and Momentum) and others counter-cyclical (such as while the aggressive factor portfolio includes expo-
Quality and Minimum Volatility. Indeed, factors have sures to momentum, size, and value.24 Not surprisingly,
been highly cyclical historically, with sensitivity to var- we observe that the defensive portfolio performed well
ious stages of the economic cycle. Just as many investors in f light-to-quality environments when market vola-
make tactical adjustments to country or sector alloca- tility was rising. The aggressive portfolio performed best
tions, factor strategies provide another tool to express in risk-seeking environments when market volatility was
a market view. low or falling. While factor timing is potentially chal-
Many investors seek bespoke combinations of fac- lenging, the notion of factor rotation is attractive to
tors to ref lect their market views and goals for risk and many investors and many practitioners are investigating
EXHIBIT 14
Historical Evolution of the Excess Returns of the Aggressive and Defensive Portfolios vs. the MSCI Worlds
Returns (lhs axis). On the rhs axis, we Show the Behavior of Markets Volatility, as Proxied by the Realized
Volatility of the MSCI World Index
Notes: The above data refers to simulated past performance, which is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Source: BlackRock, Bloomberg. As of the end of Jan-2015. Based on USD denominated net total return indices.
Our Defensive factor portfolio, denominated in USD, rebalances annually, provides exposure to 50% MSCI World Sector Neutral Quality Index NR
USD and 50% MSCI World Minimum Volatility Index NR USD. Our Aggressive factor portfolio, denominated in USD and rebalances annually,
provides exposure to 33.3% MSCI World Momentum Index NR USD, 33.3% MSCI World Mid-Cap Equal Weighted Index NR USD and 33.4%
MSCI World Enhanced Value Index NR USD. For a full assessment of the investment strategy, the different levels of risk implied by each solutions should
also always be considered. Past performance is not an indicator of future results. Index and portfolio returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction
costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Data for the time periods prior to the index inception date (MSCI
World Minimum Volatility Index NR USD was launched on 14-Apr-2008; MSCI World Momentum Index NR USD was launched on 11-Dec-2013;
MSCI World Mid Cap Equal Weighted Index NR USD was launched on 25-Jul-2014; MSCI World Enhanced Value Index NR USD and MSCI
World Sector Neutral Quality Index NR USD were both launched on 11-Aug-2014) is hypothetical back-tested data. The MSCI World Index was
launched on 31-Mar-1986.
SMART BETA STRATEGIES AS OUTCOME-ORIENTED SOLUTIONS IN THE EQUITY SPACE SUMMER 2015
dimensions. We encourage smart beta investors to con- SO WHAT DO I DO WITH MY MONEY and the styl-
sider their own goals and unique needs when evaluating ized i logo are registered and unregistered trademarks of
potential strategies. BlackRock, Inc. or its subsidiaries in the United States and
elsewhere. All other trademarks are those of their respective
What is the objective of the potential smart beta owners.
1
Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, BlackRock
strategy: return enhancement or risk mitigation?
ETP Landscape, Simfund. Data excludes assets in Cayman
What is the investors risk tolerance and time Islands, British Virgin Islands, and Bermuda-domiciled funds.
horizon? How much cyclicality can the investor As of the end of December 2014. Throughout this docu-
endure Understanding what the bad times ment, ETF data is referenced from a number of sources by
may look like can help investors withstand those BlackRock including provider websites, fund prospectuses,
uncomfortable times. provider press releases, provider surveys, Bloomberg, the
What is the investors expectation for the future, National Stock Exchange, Strategic Insight Simfund, Wind,
including market returns and the persistence of and the Bank of Israel. Mutual fund data is sourced from
style factors? How prominent a role should these EPFR.
views take in the formulation of the investment
2
As at the end of December 2014. By retail asset man-
strategy? agement industry we define the aggregation of ETP with
index and active mutual funds offered to retail clients.
3
In 1884, Charles Dow and Edward Davis Jones began
As we have shown, the portfolio construction
to list the Dow Jones Average index: a price-weighted bench-
decisions surrounding index methodology can have a mark of 11 U.S. railways companies.
significant impact on a strategys risk and return results. 4
BlackRock estimates, based on number of indices
As with any investment strategy, its underlying charac- maintained by a sample of index providers as of March 2015.
teristics will drive its behavior along with the ultimate Providers included: MSCI, FTSE, Stoxx, and S&P.
success and durability of the investment strategy. We 5
With the exception of the Nikkei 225 Stock Average
firmly believe that there is a valuable role for smart beta index, which is used as the default choice to represent the
alongside traditional index and active investing. Japanese equity market and which uses a price weighting
scheme.
6
Which we review in the following section.
ENDNOTES 7
Both investment vehicles were tracking indices with
BlackRock Advisors (U.K.) Limited, which is autho- underlying securities selected on a basis of a range of fun-
rized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority damental values and combined using a modified equally
(FCA), having its registered office at 12 Throgmorton weighted methodology. This meant that out of a total of 50
Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL, England, Tel +44 (0)20 7743 stocks, the top 15 constituents were given 50% of the weights
3000, has issued this document for access by Professional Cli- (equally distributed) and the remaining 35 constituents were
ents only and no other person should rely upon the informa- contributing for 50% weight (again, equally distributed).
tion contained within it. For your protection, calls are usually
8
Source: BlackRock, as of March 2015.
recorded. Investment in the products mentioned in this docu-
9
Source: BlackRock, ETP Landscape as of end of March
ment may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is 2015.
not a guide to future performance and should not be the sole
10
Calculated from January 2010 to December 2014.
factor of consideration when selecting a product. The price
11
By this we define ETFs that track an index whereby
of the investments may go up or down and the investor may the constituents are weighted based on the historical or pro-
not get back the amount invested. Hypothetical data results spective estimated dividend paid.
are based on criteria applied retroactively with the benefit of
12
Source: BlackRock, as of March 2015.
hindsight and knowledge of factors that may have positively
13
Source: BlackRock, as of March 2015.
affected its performance, and cannot account for risk factors
14
Source: BlackRock, as of March 2015.
that could affect any actual fund performance. Any actual
15
Source: BlackRock, as of March 2015.
fund performance could vary significantly from the hypo-
16
As implied by its name, this latter index invests in
thetical index performance due to transaction costs, liquidity the same 500 companies included in the traditional index,
or other market factors. BLACKROCK, BLACKROCK however, each of them has the same weight in the bench-
SOLUTIONS, iSHARES, BUILD ON BLACKROCK, mark index.
Antropova, S., and R. Tiwari. Factoring in Stock DNA. To order reprints of this article, please contact Dewey Palmieri
BlackRock, (2015). at dpalmieri@ iijournals.com or 212-224-3675.
SMART BETA STRATEGIES AS OUTCOME-ORIENTED SOLUTIONS IN THE EQUITY SPACE SUMMER 2015