How potent is the INCs vote delivery system?

In a close local race where the winning margin can only amount to a few
hundred votes, this chunk of votes can spell the difference between victory
or defeat. But in national races, this potency is yet to be tested convincingly.

Aries Rufo
Published 1:30 PM, July 27, 2014
Updated 3:02 PM, August 28, 2015

Part 1: INC: From rag-tag sect to influential wheeler-dealer?

Second of 3 parts

MANILA, Philippines A candidate favored by the influential Iglesia ni

Cristo (INC) is half-assured of 80% of the votes cast by INC voters in
elections, according to De La Salle political science professor Gladstone
Cuarteros.

The Iglesia is, after all, a solid bloc, considering that INC members regard
as a religious duty going to the polling precincts on Election Day to carry
out the command of their leaders.

In a close local race where the winning margin can only amount to a few
hundred votes, this chunk of votes can spell the difference between victory
or defeat. But in national races, this potency is yet to be tested convincingly.
For instance, in senatorial races where voters nationwide have as many
options of voting for 12 candidates, the INCs bloc-voting power is
effectively diluted.

Besides, most of those in the INC list are either in the winning circle based
on pre-election surveys, with the names of the anointed ones released just a
few days or days before the poll exercise.
In the May 13, 2013 mid-term elections for instance, 10 of the INC-
endorsed candidates won, but this winning group had been predicted early
on by pre-election surveys. The younger Jackie Enrile, who was endorsed by
the INC, statistically had a chance of barging into the top 12 candidates,
based on a survey conducted by the Social Weather Stations from May 2-3.
But it appears the INC endorsement was frustrated by Senator Gringo
Honasan who was also endorsed by the sect. Honasan occupied the 12th
spot.

It was former senator Richard Gordon who gained most from the INC
endorsement as he was well outside of the winning circle days before the
elections. When the last vote was counted, he was in 13th place, some
700,000 votes behind Honasan.

In the May 10, 2010 polls, all but one candidate carried by the INC won in
the senatorial race. But the INC came up with its list two days after the
Social Weather Stations (SWS) released its last pre-election survey. The INC
list mirrored the SWS survey results. The only exception was Rufino Biazon,
who was carried by the INC, but who placed 14th.

It was in the May 14, 2007 senatorial race that the vulnerability of the INCs
bloc-voting power was exposed when 3 of its chosen ones lost in the
elections. Mike Defensor, Vicente Sotto III, and Ralph Recto placed 14th,
15th and 19th respectively in the polls.

A 4th one, Juan Miguel Zubiri, who managed to squeak past Aquilino
Pimentel III for the last and 12th spot, later resigned in 2011 following
allegations that he benefitted from massive cheating conducted in
Maguindanao by the Arroyo administration. He was replaced by Pimentel.

Presidential elections

If the effect of an INC endorsement for the senatorial races is debatable, it

has some semblance of validity in tight presidential races. The last two
presidential races 2004 and 2010 could be instructive.
In the 1992 presidential race, the INC backed the candidacy of Danding
Cojuangco who placed 3rd behind Miriam Defensor-Santiago and eventual
winner Fidel V. Ramos.

In the 1998 national polls, the sect threw its support behind Estrada but
some observers say the effect of the INC endorsement was hardly felt since
Estrada was the runaway winner anyway.

But the 2004 presidential race may tell a different story.

A former Cabinet secretary under both the Estrada and the Aquino
administration observed that Arroyo would not have won in 2004 had the
INC not supported her. Arroyo won over the late action star, Fernando Poe
Jr, by a margin of one million votes.

The former Cabinet official said the INC was actually torn between then
Senator Panfilo Lacson and Poe and it didnt help that the two could not get
their act together. The INC issued an ultimatum between the two that
one of them should give way. If they cannot agree, then the INC said it will
support Arroyo, the source, who was privy to the INC deadline, said.

As it happened, talks between Lacson and Poe disintegrated. It was only

then that the INC announced it was supporting Arroyo. In hindsight, had
Lacson given way, Poe would have won over Arroyo, the former Cabinet
official said. Arroyo won by 1.12 million votes, although allegations of
massive cheating with the help of a disgraced poll commissioner, hounded
the rest of her presidency.

In the 2010 presidential race, the INC abandoned Estrada and endorsed
Aquino instead. He had been leading all pre-election surveys which made
him a safer bet for the INC. The INC announced its choice 5 days before
Election Day.
The former Cabinet official pointed out that Estrada would have overtaken
Aquino if the INC chose the former president. Aquino got 15.208 million
votes, while Estrada finished with 9.487 million.

But is it really just a case of dagdag-bawas (add-subtract) arithmetic where

one merely adds the voting potential of the INC to the one endorsed and
subtract the same number from the nearest rival?

INC size and clout

How big is the voting bloc of the INC in the first place?

A 2000 census showed that 2.3 % of the population belonged to the INC,
with almost 81% to the Catholic faith. That year, the estimated population
was 76.5 million. That means there were around 1.75 million INC members
that time.

A separate exit poll conducted by SWS in partnership with media giant ABS-
CBN in the 2001 mid-term elections tends to support the figures. In that
exit survey, the SWS concluded that the INCs vote strength is only about
1.2 million or 3% of the total electorate. In 2001, the total number of
registered voters reached 36.3 million.

With a conversion rate between 68%-84%, that translates to 800,000 to 1

million votes, the SWS said. In the scheme of things, while such number
may be small compared with the total number of registered voters, as a
solid voting bloc, INC votes can be very influential in helping borderline
candidates for the Senate, the SWS said.

In that election, the INC backed Santiago but the SWS said the INC bloc
vote was not enough to propel her to victory. The 13th and last spot was
secured by Honasan, edging out Enrile and Santiago who placed 14th and
15th, respectively.
The exit poll revealed that INC's support for Santiago was not enough to
put her in the winning circle since other religious groups like Catholics, who
comprise 82% of the electorate, gave more votes to Honasan than
Santiago, the SWS concluded.

Extrapolating from the 2001 figures, given the number of registered voters
in 2010 at 50.7 million, the number of INC registered voters would only
reach around 1.521 million.

Given his margin of victory over Estrada, Aquino would have won
convincingly even without the INC endorsement.

The fact is, religious groups have the tendency to bloat their figures. The El
Shaddai, as early as the 90s, claimed a membership of 7-8 million. Yet
members of El Shaddai already of voting age only numbered 1.3 million,
based on a survey conducted in 1998.

Realpolitik

Since politics is addition, realpolitik dictates that one has to corner support
from all sectors to capture the votes.

Allen Surla, professor at De La Salle University, pointed out that the INC
bloc-voting has served the sect well since they are able to negotiate with
politicians concessions that otherwise would have been denied of less
organized groups.

Anything they do, they do it collectively and they are able to show strength
and unity, he added.

In being able to affect who gets to be elected, they obtain some leverage
from politicians from sparing them from harassment or intimidation to as
simple as allowing them to operate in peace. For local positions, they can
even bargain for the employment of their own members, in exchange for
perpetual political support.

They may ask the mayor or the governor that a certain percentage of the
employment be given to INC members, Surla said.

But INC spokesman Edwil Zabala, in a separate interview, strongly denied

that the INC bloc-vote has strings attached to it. We vote, thats it. It is one
of the misconceptions that after voting, we do other things. Those who
assert that, they should be the ones providing proof for their assertion. We
vote, thats all.

The quid pro quo sought by the INC is more altruistic than for vested
personal interests. The bottom-line is that it will be the church and its
members who will benefit in the long run. The INC provides for the
housing and health care of its members. And they get the funding from the
tithes given by the members. The more INC members have jobs, the bigger
tithes they get.

A retired Catholic archbishop agrees that the tithing imposed by the INC on
its members has shaped the political nature of the group. For instance,
INC members are not allowed to participate in strikes. That makes their
members more employable and more desired by employers. More employed
members mean bigger tithing.

In fact, the INC was one of the prime movers of the Overseas Filipino
Workers phenomenon in the 70s which former president Ferdinand Marcos
pushed, the retired archbishop said. The remittances of these INC
members helped the sect financially.

It was Marcos who first realized that the INC could be cultivated as political
allies. In exchange for their political support, Marcos gave them
concessions such as jobs for their members, a long-time political observer
said.
Slowly but surely, the INC began to realize its own potential clout in the
national political arena. Rappler.com