Energy Transition in

the Power Sector in

Europe:
State of Affairs in 2016
Review on the Developments in 2016 and Outlook
on 2017

ANALYSIS

*RES-Share of Gross Electricity Generation

Energy Transition in
the Power Sector in
Europe: State of
Affairs in 2016

IMPRINT

ANALYSIS

Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe:

State of Affairs in 2016

Review on the Developments in 2016 and Out-

look on 2017

AN ANALYSIS BY

Sandbag
40 Bermondsey Street | London, SE1 3UD

Agora Energiewende
Anna-Louisa-Karsch-Strae 2 | 10178 Berlin

Dave Jones

Mara Marthe Kleiner

Matthias Buck

Dr. Patrick Graichen

Contact:
dave@sandbag.org.uk
maramarthe.kleiner@agora-energiewende.de

Please cite as:

Agora Energiewende and Sandbag (2017): Energy
Typesetting: Juliane Franz Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of
Cover: Own illustration Affairs in 2016. Review on the Developments in
2016 and Outlook on 2017.

106/03-A-2017/EN www.sandbag.org.uk
Publication: January 2017 www.agora-energiewende.de
Preface
Dear reader,
the energy transition the transformation of the
power sector from a fossil-based to a decarbonised
world with renewables at the centre is a joint Eu-
ropean project. The power sector will play a crucial
role in attaining the European climate targets, which
aim to cut greenhouse gases by at least 40 percent by
2030 compared to 1990.
For this analysis, Sandbag and Agora Energiewende
joined forces and present the state of affairs in the
European power sector in 2016: Where are we co-
ming from? Where do we stand today? Key topics
include power generation, power consumption, CO2
emissions and prices. Overall, it is clear that the cur-
rent power system is not yet fully equipped to deal
with the main challenges ahead: securing power sup-
ply at a reasonable price with as little emissions as
possible. However, Europe is on the right path: almost
30 percent of the electricity produced already comes
from renewable energy sources.
We hope you enjoy the reading!
Kind regards
Patrick Graichen
Director Agora Energiewende
Dave Jones
Carbon & Power Analyst Sandbag

Key findings

Gas replaced coal, and hence European power sector emissions fell drastically by 4.5%. Eu-
ropean coal generation fell by 94TWh and gas generation increased by 101TWh, resulting in
48Mt less CO2 emitted. Half of this happened in the UK, but also Italy, Netherlands, Germany
1 and Greece saw switching from coal to gas. However, gas generation was far from reaching a
record it is still 168 TWh below the 2010 level, showing that more coal-gas switching is possi-
ble without new infrastructure.

Renewables increased only slightly from 29.2% to 29.6% of the electricity mix, mainly due to
bad solar and wind conditions. Radical price falls give hope for future growth. Solar and wind
conditions were generally below average in 2016, compared to well above average in 2015.
2 However, with new capacity installed, overall generation still saw small increases. As to prices,
2016 saw record low renewables auction results with only 49,9 Euros/MWh for wind offshore
and 53,8 Euros/MWh for solar, both in Denmark.

Electricity consumption rises slightly by 0.5%, with European GDP rising by 1.7%. Only two
countries saw falls in electricity consumption in 2016, most had modest increases. Investment
3 going into energy efficiency is apparently sufficient to prevent electricity consumption from ris-
ing but not enough for electricity consumption to begin structurally falling.

The structural oversupply of the EU-ETS has passed the landmark of 3 billion tonnes of CO2, as
2016 added another 255 million tonnes CO2. The reason is that ETS emissions are structurally
4 below the cap mocking the concept of a cap-and-trade system. To play a meaningful role in
EU climate policy, the EU ETS needs to be fundamentally repaired.

The outlook for 2017 is for further big falls in fossil generation but whether this is coal or
gas is uncertain. 2016 gave a glimpse of the rapid falls in emissions that are possible with de-
5 creased coal production. But a coherent European policy approach to continually increasing
renewables and to a just transition in the context of a coal phase-out is needed to ensure that
the CO2 reductions of 2016 are continued into the future.

1
Agora Energiewende | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

2
Inhalt
1 Summary of changes in 2016 versus 2015 5

2 Efficiency gains only cover economic growth 9

3 Renewables growth was below trend; but r apid price falls

give hope for future growth 11
3.1 New installations in 2016 13
3.2 Falls in renewables prices 13
3.3 Renewables generation in 2016 13
3.4 Growth by country 17

4 Power from conventionals 2016: The big shift from coal to gas 19
4.1 Coal closures 22
4.2 UKs carbon price support 22
4.3 Temporary coal-gas switching 23
4.4 Changes to nuclear generation  23

5 Electricity interconnectors helped to keep grid secure 25

6 Power sector CO2 emissions fell by 4.5 percent in 2016 29

7 Outlook 33

8 Annex 35
8.1 Data 35
8.2 Methodology 36

3
Agora Energiewende | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

4
 ANALYSIS | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

1 Summary of changes in 2016 versus 2015

In the following, we show what we think are the three
most important graphics from the report. Figure 1
shows the changes by fuel type in Europe. Key as-
pects are very small changes in renewable generation
in 2016, a huge fall in coal generation offset by a huge
rise in gas generation, and a fall in nuclear generation.
Figure 3 shows the power production by source since
2010. Most remarkably: despite the rapid rise in gas
generation for the second year in a row, gas genera-
tion is still 168 Terawatt hours below levels in 2010.
Factors driving the observed changes are explained in
subsequent section of this report.

Figure 2 shows the overall European electricity mix.

Largest contribution of power came from renewa-
bles, followed by nuclear, gas, hard coal and lig-
nite. Most striking changes can be seen among gas
and coal gas increased its share from 15.5 percent
to 18.6percent while coals share dropped from
24.6percent to 21.6 percent.

Changes in gross electricity generation and consumption 2015 to 2016 Figure 1

100
101.4
80
60 16.9
2.7
Changes to 2015 (TWh)

40
3.9 15.0
20
4.0
0
-15.8
-20 6.3
-40 -18.5

-60 -77.8

-80
-93.6
-100
RES Coal Gas Nuclear Overall
consumption

Hydro Solar Wind Biomass and other

Lignite Hard coal Gas
Overall consumption

Own calculations

5
Agora Energiewende | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

Generation mix in 2015 and 2016 Figure 2

2015
Lignite
10,1 %
Hard coal Other fossil
14,5% 3,8%

Wind 9,4 %

Solar 3,4 %
Gas RES 29.2 %
15,5 % Biomass 5,8%

Hydro 10,6%

Nuclear
26,9 %

Lignite 2016
9,6 % Other fossil
Hard coal
12,0 % 3,8%

Wind 9,5%

Solar 3,5%
Gas
18,6 % RES 29.6%
Biomass 5,8%

Hydro 10,7%

Nuclear
26,3%

Own calculations

6
 ANALYSIS | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

Power generation since 20102016 Figure 3

3500 3,333 3,268 3,265 3,230 3,159 3,203 3,211

3000
766 704 586 511 461 497 598
Power generation (TWh)

2500
545 528 474 464 386
494 497
2000 325 324 308
347 333
326 344
1500
881 881 863 845
921 911 887
1000

500 854 899 935 952

679 678 768

0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

RES Nuclear Lignite Hard coal Gas Other fossil

Own calculations; *preliminary

7
Agora Energiewende | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

8
 ANALYSIS | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

2 Efficiency gains only cover economic growth

Electricity consumption increased by 0.5 percent in
2016, falling in only two countries in Germany and
Italy. It is the second year in a row that electricity
consumption has increased, now being back at 2013
levels. But that does not mean the trend is up 2014
was, after all, the mildest year on record. Over the last
six years, European real GDP has grown by 7 percent,
and European electricity consumption has fallen by
3percent see figure 4.
Even across countries, electricity consumption seems
quite unchanged throughout this decade. Although
electricity consumption seems to be growing in eas-
tern European countries and falling in western and
southern European countries, the changes have been
small see figure 5. Poland and Bulgaria saw the fas-
test increases but only averaged 1 percent per year;
Italy, Sweden and UK saw the biggest falls but only
averaging 1 percent per year.
So, while it seems there is sufficient energy effi-
ciency happening to keep overall European electri-
city consumption from rising significantly, it does
not look like electricity consumption is structurally
falling. The pick-up in the economy apparently does
not increase energy efficiency investment to the level

Electricity consumption and gross domestic product of the EU Figure 4

108 107

106 105

104 103
102 101
102 101
(2010=100)

100
100
98 98
98 97
97
96
96 95

94

92
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

Real GDP growth Electricity consumption

Eurostat 2017, own calculations; *preliminary

9
Agora Energiewende | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

needed for reaching European efficiency targets. In

order to compensate the increase in power consump-
tion due to electrification of transport, heating and
cooling, a renewed focus on energy efficiency is nee-
ded.1

1 It is worth mentioning a caveat: Although the data used

for this report is the best publically available, the data
quality is far from perfect. Specifically looking at small ch-
anges in electricity consumption can be subject to errors,
because of the proportional effect of the data errors, and of
annual weather patterns impacting electricity consumpti-
on.

Change in Electricity Consumption from 2010 to 2016 Figure 5

8% 6%
6%
6% 4% 4%
4%
4% 3% 2%
2% 2%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6% -4% -5% -5%
-4% -4%
-4% -4% -6% -6%
-8%
-10% -7%
-5%
-12%
Italy
Belgium
Austria
Ireland
Poland

Portugal

Sweden
Hungary

UK
Denmark
Bulgaria

Finland
Romania

Spain
Netherlands
Slovenia

Germany

France
Greece
Slovakia

Czech

Own calculations

10
 ANALYSIS | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

3 Renewables growth was below trend; but

rapid price falls give hope for future growth

Renewables generation pauses for breath a fter
a bumper 2015, rising from 29.2 percent to
29.6percent of all electricity generated2. Solar and
wind conditions were generally below average
in 2016, compared to well above average in 2015,
which led to the huge jump in 2015, and the low
growth in 2016. Because of the poorer weather con-
ditions, it was perhaps a surprise that new capacity
installations were still sufficient to enable renewa-
ble generation to slightly rise.
The installation rate of new renewables was behind
trend. Wind installations in 2016 probably did not
beat last years record but was in line with the 2010
2015 average. Solar installations hit the 100 Gigawatt
landmark in 2016, but new installations were lower
than 2015. Biomass also slowed significantly: bio-
mass generation, which is less impacted by weather
than solar and wind, saw its generation increase by
only three Terawatt hours in 2016, compared to an
average 11 Terawatt hours increase in 20102015.

2 Figures are slightly different from EUROSTATs official

reporting of renewables electricity, which use normalised
hydro. Here, non-normalised data is used.

Renewables share of gross electricity production Figure 6

35%
29.2 % 29.6%
30% 28.5 %
26.5 %
25% 23.5%
20.4% 20.7%
RES share (%)

18.6% 18.9%
20%
16.6%
15.0%
15% 13.2 %
11.3% 11.2%
10% 11.9%
11.5 % 10.6% 10.7 %
9.5% 10.3 %
9.1%
5%

0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

RES share RES share without hydro Hydro share

Own calculations; *preliminary

11
Agora Energiewende | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

Renewable power production 2010-2016 Figure 7

1000 935 952

899
900 854
768 185 188
800 173
163
679 678
Power generation (TWh)

700 155 110 114

98
85
600 130 139
71
23 47
500 235 254 302 306
150 206
400 180

300
200 376 371 375
312 336 339 345
100
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

Wind Solar Biomass Hydro

Changes in renewable power generation (excluding hydro) 20112016 Figure 8

80
72
70 66
64
12
Changes in power generation (TWh)

60 9 16 52
12
50
9 41
24
40
24
14 10
30
13 48
20
30 29 11 3
26
10 18 4
4
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

Wind Solar Biomass

Own calculations; *preliminary

12
 ANALYSIS | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016
3.1 New installations in 2016
Wind: Up to now, no official estimates on wind capa-
city additions have been published for 2016. German
installations fell from 6.0 Gigawatt in 2015 to 5Giga
watt in 2016, so we assume that European-wide
capacity additions will not hit the records of 2015,
in which 12.8 Gigawatt were installed. However, the
2016 additions will be in line with the high levels of
the past six years in which 1012 Gigawatt were in-
stalled annually.
The biggest change in 2016 is the pick-up of wind
offshore investment. According to data by Bloomberg
New Energy Finance, in total 25.8 billion dollar was
invested in European offshore wind. The outlook is
also promising on future offshore wind, with Ger-
many planning to deploy an average 730 Megawatt a
year up to 2030, the UK having made a political com-
mitment to install one Gigawatt a year in the 2020s
and the Netherlands deploying 700 Megawatt a year
up to 2020. 3
Solar: Europe celebrated hitting a major landmark in
2016, with 100 Gigawatt now installed. In 2016, new
solar installations fell slightly from 8.2 Gigawatt in
2015 to around 7.3 Gigawatt, as estimated by Solar-
Power Europe in June4. The fall is mostly due to the
abrupt end to the UKs subsidies for solar. This is well
below the record for new installation of 23 Gigawatt
set in 2011, and only just above half the 2010 to 2015
average of 13 Gigawatts per year. SolarPower Europe
believe that growth will pick up again from 2017, but
there remains a large difference between their low
and high scenario even to 2020. Globally, solar capa-
city installations set a record: 70 Gigawatt in 2016,
17Gigawatts more than in 2015. 5
3 See BNEF 2017: https://about.bnef.com/blog/record-
30bn-year-offshore-wind-overall-investment/
4 See page 30 of SolarPower Europes Global Market Outlook
5 See BNEF 2017: https://about.bnef.com/blog/record-
30bn-year-offshore-wind-overall-investment/
3.2 Falls in renewables prices
Offshore wind: Many observers were stunned at
the huge declines in prices for offshore wind, which
more than halved in price in 2016. In 2015, the best
price signed for offshore wind was 103 Euros/MWh
(Vattenfalls Horns Rev 3). In 2016, new records were
constantly beaten, until November when Vattenfall
signed for Denmarks Kriegers Flak at an incredible
49.9 Euros/MWh (before grid connection of around
5Euro/MWh).
Solar: German solar auctions prices fell by 14 percent
in 2016. They fell from 80 Euros/MWh in the Decem-
ber 2015 auction to 69 Euros/MWh in the Decem-
ber 2016 auction. Most stunningly, the cross-border
German-Danish auction in December 2016 cleared at
only 54 Euros/MWh.6 SolarPower Europe calculated,
that when you adjust the German prices for increa-
sed sunshine, the price would fall to 45 Euros/MWh
in Madrid and Athens7. Elsewhere in the world, new
records have also been seen, with Masdar and Abu
Dhabi auctions both clearing at around an incredible
25 dollar/MWh.
Solar panel prices fell aggressively by 30 percent
across 2016, mostly at the end of the year, signalling
even more power price declines are yet to come.
3.3 Renewables generation in 2016
The generation from renewables (excluding hydro)
increased by 11 Terawatt hours in 2016, compared to
an incredible 72 Terawatt hours increase in 2015
see figure 8. The renewable generation increases
have averaged 51 Terawatt hours per year from 2010
to 2016.
6 Since all of this was won by one Danish investor, specific
circumstances might have yielded this result. However,
this does not alter the overall trend.
7 See page 37 of SolarPower Europes Global Market Outlook
13
Agora Energiewende | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

Solar and wind conditions were generally below
average in 2016, compared to well above average in
2015. Because of the poorer weather conditions, it
was perhaps a surprise that new capacity installa-
tions were still sufficient to even enable an over-
all increase in renewable generation. All renewable
sources recorded very small increases in gene-
ration compared to 2015: wind by 1 percent, so-
lar by 4 percent, biomass by 1 percent, and hydro by
2percent.
The changes since 2010 are dramatic. Wind genera-
tion has doubled from 150 Terawatt hours in 2010 to
306 Terawatt hours in 2016, solar generation has ne-
arly quadrupled from 23 Terawatt hours to 114 Tera-
watt hours, and biomass has increased 44 percent
from 130 Terawatt hours to 188 Terawatt hours.
Thisis shown by country in figure 9 and 10 below.
Biomass generation growth has slowed dramatically
in 2016, see figure 11.
Hydro power production varies throughout the years
according to the rain conditions. Hydro recorded in-
creases after the drought in 2015 across the Iberian
peninsular, although this was offset by dry Nordic
conditions see figure 12.
Nearly three quarters of the so-called new renewab-
les (i.e. excl. hydro) were produced in only six coun-
tries see figure 13. Germany was the main contri-
butor (28 percent), followed by the UK (13 percent),
Spain and Italy (11 percent each), France (6 percent)
and Sweden (4 percent).

Wind power production 2010 2016: European total and top countries Figure 9

350
302 306
300
254
235
Power generation (TWh)

250 97 98
206
79
200 180 70 15 17
150 58 22 22
15 15
150 50 18 40 39
13 16
38 10 16 32
13 28
20 49 50
100 15
49 54 52
43
44
50
79 80
49 51 52 57
38
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

Germany Spain UK France Italy Other

Own calculations; *preliminary

14
 ANALYSIS | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

Solar power production 20102016: European total and top countries Figure 10

120 114
110

98 18
100 17
85 8
16 7
Power generation (TWh)

80 71 6 8 10
13
4
9
5 14 14
2 14
60 4 13
47 1
12 24 24
22
40 2 22
9 19
23
11
20 1 39 39
7 31 36
2 26
20
12
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

Germany Italy Spain UK France Other

Biomass power production 20102016: European total and top countries Figure 11

200 185 188

173
180 163
155
160 47 48
139 44
Power generation (TWh)

140 130 43
43 10 9
120 10 11 10
41 9 11 11
39 11
10 11 12
100 25
12 12 25
80 12 11 25
12 23
11 18
11 30 31
60 16 18
23
15 15
40 12 13

45 47 50 52 53
20 34 38
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Germany UK Italy Finland Sweden Poland Other

Own calculations; *preliminary

15
Agora Energiewende | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

Hydropower power production 20102016: European total and top countries Figure 12

400 376 371 375

339 345
336
350
312
115 107 110
300
Power generation (TWh)

92 103 112
90
250 37 39
42 21
27 35
200 38 31 44 42 41
37
34 40
150 51 42 53 59 44
46 40

100 59 54
63 45 70 63 57

50
66 66 79 61 64 74 62
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

Sweden France Italy Austria Spain Other

RES production (excluding hydro) 20102016: European total and top countries Figure 13

700
596 607
600
525
484 155 159
Power generation (TWh)

500
432
139
127 27 26
400 366 36
34
114 22
303 21 29 64 66
100 19 26
300 24
62
69
59 68
84 18 50
20 71
200 16 37 72 78 80
16 66
26 57 59
36 49
55 29
100 22 170 171
122 129 143
84 106
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

Germany UK Spain Italy France Sweden Other

Own calculations; *preliminary

16
 ANALYSIS | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

3.4 Growth by country

It is useful to recap how far Europe has come since

2010. Renewables increased from 20 percent to
30percent of the electricity mix from 2010 to
2016 a rise of 10 percentage points (pp) for Europe
in total. However, this change has been very uneven
by country.

Denmark saw the best growth of 25 percentage

points, followed by Lithuania and, perhaps sur-
prisingly for many, the UK was in third place with
17percentage points. Germany and Greece both
came in at 14 percentage points increase. Some of the
worst performers were surprisingly western Euro-
pean countries Netherlands at 2 pp, Austria at 4 pp,
France and Belgium at 5 percentage points.

Increase of the share of Renewables in the electricity mix 20102016 (in percentage points) Figure 14

30%
25%
22 %

25%
17%

20%
15%
14%
14%
12%

15%
10%
9%
9%
8%
8%
8%

10%
7%
7%
7%
6%
6%
6%
6%
5%
5%
5%
4%
3%
2%
2%

5%
1%

0%
Latvia -2%

-5%
Denmark
Lithuania
United Kingdom
Italy
Germany
Greece
Romania
EU28
Sweden
Ireland
Spain
Croatia
Poland
Bulgaria
Slovak Republic
Czech Republic
Slovenia
Cyprus
Portugal
Finland
Estonia
France
Belgium
Austria
Malta
Netherlands
Luxembourg
Hungary

Own calculations;

17
Agora Energiewende | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

18
 ANALYSIS | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

4 Power from conventionals 2016:

The big shift from coal to gas

The biggest change in the European electricity sys-
tem in 2016 was a large shift from coal generation to
gas generation, reducing coal generation by 94 Tera-
watt hours (12 percent) and increasing gas genera-
tion by 101 Terawatt hours (20 percent). This, alone,
led to European power sector CO2 emissions falling
by 4.5 percent, to 1018 Mt CO2, due to gas being less
carbon-intensive than coal. Non-CO2 pollutants
would have fallen even more aggressively, since the
difference between coal and gas is even larger for
non-CO2 pollutants than for CO2.
Coal generation fell by 12 percent, from 788 Tera-
watt hours to 694 Terawatt hours, reducing its share
of the European electricity mix from 24.6 percent of
the electricity mix to 21.6 percent. Of the 94 Terawatt
hour fall in coal generation, 4/5th of it was hard coal
generation falling, and only 1/5th of it was lignite ge-
neration falling. Half this change happened in the UK,
where wind generation exceeded coal generation in
2016 for the first time.
Gas generation increased by 20 percent, from
497Terawatt hours to 598 Terawatt hours, increa-
sing its share of the European electricity mix from
15.5percent of the electricity mix to 18.6 percent. This
was the second year in a row gas generation in Eu-
rope has risen, after four consecutive years of losses,
as renewable generation has increased see figure
17. However, despite this increase in 2015 and 2016,

Power production from hard coal, lignite and gas 20102016 Figure 15

1800
1,586 1,545
1600 1,478
1,372
1400 1,260 1,284 1,292
Power generation (TWh)

1200 766 704 586

511
1000 461 497 598

800

600 497 545 528

494 474 464
386
400

200 326 344 347 333 325 324 308

0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

Lignite Hard coal Gas

Own calculations; *preliminary

19
Agora Energiewende | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

Coal power production (Hard Coal and Lignite) from 20102016: European total and top countries Figure 16

1000
892
841 860
900 819 798 788
800 164
Power generation (TWh)

157 694
177 173 136
700 132
143 131 120
600 109 101 76
108 24
21 25 29 40 32
23 44 55 41 44 53 37
500 25 49 45 37
40 45 43 43 37
47 47 44 42 41 41
400 42
137 140 135 138 130 130
300 129

200
263 262 277 283 274 272 260
100
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

Germany Poland Czech Italy

Spain Netherlands UK Other

Power production from gas fired power plants 20102015: European total and top five countries Figure 17

900
766
800
704
700
176
Power generation (TWh)

586 598
600 169
74 511 497
147 461 147
500 68
95 123
86 124 53
400 56 103
92 55 53
89 73 52 47
300 57
47 52 81
153 79
70 64 64
200 145 119
129 109 94 109
100 176 147 146
101 97 102 101
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

UK Italy Germany Spain Netherlands Other

Own calculations; *preliminary

20
 ANALYSIS | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

gasgeneration was still 168 Terawatt hours below
that in 2010. In addition, even after the 12 percent fall
in coal generation in 2016, coal has still suffered less
from renewables than gas generation having fallen
125 Terawatt hours since 2010, compared to 168Tera-
watt hours for gas. It is clear that the opportunity
exists for a further shift from coal to gas generation
without needing to build any new power stations or
upstream infrastructure.
Figure 19 shows where the coal-gas changes hap-
pened. Half of the coal-gas switch happened in the
UK, which was due to coal plant closures and the in-
crease in carbon price support. Spanish coal fell early
in 2016 as hydro levels returned to normal; French
gas generation increased aggressively in late 2016
because of widespread nuclear outages. Germany
and Netherlands had a temporary coal-gas switch
because gas became cheaper than coal in August,
September and October 2016. Greek gas generation
took market share from lignite because of a lower gas
price and the removal of a tax on gas in June. Italy saw
a big change too.
We can split this coal-gas-switch roughly into four
reasons, which by coincidence are about evenly split:
a quarter is from closures of 8 Gigawatt of old coal
plants, mostly in the UK.
a quarter is from permanent coal-gas switching
from the UKs carbon price support
a quarter is from temporary coal-gas switching
outside the UK because of low gas prices
a quarter is from factors related to one-off changes
in nuclear and hydro generation 2016.

Change of electricity production since 2010 Figure 18

400
304
300
P ower genera tion ( T W h)

200

100

0
-76
-100
-125
-200
-168
-300

-400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

Wind + Solar + Biomass Lignite + Hard coal Gas Nuclear

Own calculations; *preliminary

21
Agora Energiewende | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

Changes in power generation of gas and coal from 2015 to 2016 Figure 19

50
40
30
20 45
10 5 6
17 13
10
TWh

0
-10 -6 -4 -3
-20 -12
-44 -16
-30
-40
-50
UK

Spain

Germany

Italy

Greece

Netherlands

Bulgaria

Romania

Portugal

France

Rest of EU28
Coal (Hard Coal + Lignite) Gas

Own calculations; *preliminary

4.1 Coal closures 4.2 UKs carbon price support

There was 8 Gigawatt of coal plant that closed in
2016.
4.9 Gigawatt in UK: Longannet, Ferrybridge and
Rugeley, mostly in March 2016. In addition, Drax
unit 3 converted to biomass.
1.6 Gigawatt in Netherlands: Amer 8, Borssele 12
and Gelderland closed end 2015.
0.6 Gigawatt in Italy: Vado Ligure units 3 and 4
closed.
0.6 Gigawatt in Belgium: Langerlo closed.
0.6 Gigawatt in Germany: 392 Megawatt of lig-
nite moved into the reserve (Buschhaus), and
284Megawatt of hard coal closed.
0.2 Gigawatt in Poland: Two Tauron 110MW units
closed (Lagisza B5 and Siersza B5)
In April 2015, the UKs carbon price support dou-
bled to 18 pound/tonne of CO2, on top of the EU-ETS
price, which means the power price must pay around
30Euros/tonne for , compared to the EU-ETS price of
around 5 Euros/tonne. This 30 Euros/tonne is suffi-
cient to cause near-permanent switching of the merit
order; in the UK, gas price needs to be at a high level
before coal can compete with gas.
Although the price change was in April 2015, the
impact was mostly felt in 2016, because coal power
plants in 2015 had planned high levels of coal burn,
and due to high coal deliveries and coal stocks that
they could not unwind, they had to generate in 2015,
despite the negative economics. This effect did not
last to 2016, leading to a significant reduction in po-
wer production of coal.

22
 ANALYSIS | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

Marginal costs of standard-type power plants 2015 and 2016 Figure 20

60

50

40
EUR/MWh_el

30

20

10

0
Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
Apr 15
May 15
Jun 15
Jul 15
Aug 15
Sep 15
Oct 15
Nov 15
Dec 15
Jan 16
Feb 16
Mar 16
Apr 16
May 16
Jun 16
Jul 16
Aug 16
Sep 16
Oct 16
Nov 16
Dec 16
2015 2016

Hard coal (old 35%) Hard coal (old, 41%) Hard coal (new 45%)
Gas (CCGT; old, 50%) Gas (CCGT; old, 55%) Gas (CCGT; new, 58%)

Worldbank 2017; Bundesbank 2017, UBA 2015, DEhSt 2017, own calculations

4.3 Temporary coal-gas switching 4.4 Changes to nuclear generation

Coal and gas prices were very volatile during 2016. The biggest changes happened in French nuclear
Gas price fell very rapidly in Q1-2016, bringing the generation, which fell by 33 Terawatt hours due to
costs of coal-gas generation close throughout all of significant outages. This happened from July through
2016, compared to 2015 when gas generation held a to December see figure 21. One-third of the nuclear
significant premium to coal throughout the year see shortfall was made up from increased French gas ge-
figure 20. neration, and two-thirds resulted in less exports to
Belgium, UK and Germany. 8
From April 2016, the coal-gas prices came close for
the rest of the year, leading to some coal-gas swit- There were other changes in nuclear generation, see
ching. However, the biggest price advantage, which figure 22. Both Belgium nuclear reactors came back
led to the biggest switching was in August, September online, increasing Belgium nuclear generation by
and October. 17Terawatt hours. German nuclear generation fell in
H1-2016, resulting from Grafenrheinfelds closure in
Q3-2015. Sweden had a rather average year in 2016
after a poor year in 2015.

8 The next chapter analyses the change in electricity flows

in 2016.

23
Agora Energiewende | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

Changes in French power production 2016 Figure 21

30 25

20
8
10
3 3 3
0
0
0
TWh

-2 -1 -2
-10 -5

-20

-30
-28

-40
Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Imports Consumption

Jan-Jun Jul-Dec

Nuclear production 20102016: European total and top five countries Figure 22

1000 921 911

887 881 881 863 845
900
167 171
800 163 164 159 146
159
Power generation (TWh)

700 62 58 62 57 57 57
58 60 58
64 66 65 57
600 62 69 63
70 71 64 71
72
500 143 110 99 94
101 99
87
400
300
200 429 442 426 424 437 438 405

100
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

France Germany UK Sweden Spain Other

Own calculations; *preliminary

24
 ANALYSIS | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

5 Electricity interconnectors helped to keep

grid secure

There were some interesting changes in electricity

flows in 2016; however, most were just one-off ch-
anges. France exported less electricity to Germany,
Belgium and the UK because of its nuclear outages.
German set another record for electricity exports,
because of the French nuclear problems and a dry
Nordic year (although there were substantially less
exports to Netherlands because of return of the Bel-
gium nuclear reactors).9

There was a severe increase in electricity prices in

some countries in Q4-2016, because of the French
nuclear problems and because of the UK coal plant
closures, as there was limited capacity left in these
countries see figure 24. ENTSO-E communicated in
their Winter Outlook that there was sufficient capa-
city in neighbouring countries to avoid a security of
supply incident.

However, that did not stop the market seeing large

price increases. Power prices rose up in France and
UK, but also in Italy, Spain, Belgium, Portugal and
Switzerland see figure 25. This created a large di-
vision across Europe, with Germany, Poland and the
Nordic region seeing much lower prices.

9 A note on data: we have assumed there is seven Terawatt

hours flowing between Italy and Austria which are not re-
ported in ENTSO-E. Otherwise, the ENTSO-E flows would
be substantially different from national data, which would
make no sense.

25
Agora Energiewende | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

Physical electricity flows in TWh Figure 23

2015 2016

Displayed are net physical

flows between countries.

0|0

SE
22 | 12
FI
-16 | -19
4|6

17 | 15
NO
14 | 15
5|2 RU
3|7
EE 2 | 1 5|8
1|2
4|3
5|5

LV 1|1
-2 | -1
3|3

4
DK 0|3 LT 2|1
2
2

-6 | -5
6|4

2|

-7 | -8
RU BE
3|

IE
2|1

1|0 2|1
1
2

0|

-1 | 0
2
2

UK
-21 | -18 8|8 NL
24 | 16 11 | 8 PL
-9 | -5
0 | -2 0| 1 UK
12 | 7

9|7

-21 | -6 GE 4|4
14 | 10

5|4

BE 45 | 49 0|1
CZ 2
13 | 11 10 | 9 3|
SK
8

12 | 10

1|1

-2 | -3 4
11 | 6 6|
1

14 | 12

AT
11 | 15

10 | 8 HU
-2 | -2
-14 | -13
2|3
5|3

5|3 CH 1|0 RO
17 | 6
1

FR -8 | -4 7|5
1|

0|0

SV
5|

59 | 37 0 | 1 HR
25

6|6 2|1
4|4

-8 | -6 1|1
|2

13 | 11 RS
0

3|
2|

B&A
3 2|1
2

2|4 BU
1| 1
2|
7|8

1 2 | -1
ME SE
1|1
4|2

0|0

2
IT
1|

-44 | -42 MK
0|1
1

PT 5 AL
ES TU
-2 | 5 -1 | 0 3|1
-5 | -13 0 |0
3|1
GR
1|2 -10 | -9
1|1

ENTSO-E 2017

26
 ANALYSIS | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

Day-ahead prices in selected European countries Figure 24

80
IT
70 CH
Monthly average day -ahead prices

60 ES

PT
50
UK
(EUR/MWh)

40 BE

30 FR

NL
20
PL
10 DE-AT

Nordpool
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

EEX 2017, EPEX 2017, APX 2017, OMEL 2017, GME 2017, PGE 2017, Nordpool 2017

27
Agora Energiewende | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

Average day-ahead power prices in Europe in Q4 2016 Figure 25

2015 2016

35

60 37
41
38
58

60
58

56

56 56

EEX 2017, EPEX 2017, APX 2017, OMEL 2017, GME 2017, PGE 2017, Nordpool 2017

28
 ANALYSIS | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

6 Power sector CO2 emissions fell by 4.5 percent in

2016

We estimate last years power sector emissions have
fallen by 4.5 percent down 48 million tonnes from
1066 million tonnes in 2015 to 1018 million ton-
nes in 2016. The reasons for this is the large co-
al-gas switch discussed earlier in this document. For
non-power ETS emissions, Sandbag forecast a slight
fall of 1 million tonnes this assumes that industry
continues to show little structural abatement, and
that the massive 30 percent fall in UK steel produc-
tion is offset by rises in cement production reported
in Germany and Greece.
This means our forecast for total 2016 EU emissions
covered by the emissions trading scheme is to fall by
2.7 percent from 1803 million tonnes to 1754 mil-
lion tonnes. This is significantly above our forecast in
summer 2016 of 1718 million tonnes; not all the emis-
sions reductions we forecasted happened because
of the significant French nuclear outages and a low
Q4 wind speeds, which both resulted in significantly
more fossil generation than we anticipated.
This would mean that in the last four years, ETS
emissions have fallen at an average of 3.0 percent
per year see figure 26 but with a big difference
between the power sector and non-power sector.
The power sector fell by 4.5 percent per year, and the
non-power sector fell by 0.7 percent per year.

Changes of EU ETS emissions (stationary sources) 20112016 Figure 26

0%
-0.1%
-0.4%
-0.5%

-1%
-0.5%

-0.6%
-0.8 %

-1.3%

-2%
-1.7%
-1.9%

-1.9%
-2.0%

-3%
-2.7%

-4%
-3.8%
-4.1%
-4.5%

-5%
-5.0%
-5.1%

-6%

-7%

-8%
-7.8%

-9%
Power Non-power Total EU-ETS

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

Own calculations; *preliminary

29
Agora Energiewende | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

ETS emissions from coal, other power and non-power sectors 20082016 Figure 27

1000
902

896
888
856
845
829
828

900

800
790
780
791

764

758

740
743

736
737
800 691
700
600
443
Mt CO2

500 429
406

388
338

327
400
309

286
283
300
200
100
0
Coal power Other Power Non-power

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

ETS cap 20132020 and actual emissions 20132016 Figure 28

2200

2100

2000 9%
-

1900
1904 11%
-
Mt CO2

1800
1814 1802
1700 1754

Sandbag forecast:
1600 1754 Mt CO2

1500
2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017 2018 2019 2020

Actual EU-ETS emissions Cap

Own calculations; *preliminary

30
 ANALYSIS | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

The fall in EU-ETS emissions has been accelerating
specifically because of the rapid fall in coal power
emissions see figure 27. Despite these falls, coal po-
wer emissions will still be 40 percent of all EU-ETS
emissions in 2016. Therefore, to understand the EU-
ETS, one must understand coal generation. However,
also, 2016 will be the first year ever that coal power
emissions will have fallen below non-power sector
emissions, with non-power emissions expecting to
have fallen just 1 percent in three years.
This means emissions are falling faster than the cap
see figure 28. In 2013, emissions were 9 percent be-
low the cap, creating a structural surplus. By 2016,
emissions were 11 percent below the cap. This means
the structural surplus will have increased by around
255 million tonnes in 2016 alone.
The EU ETS surplus in the market shrunk in 2016,
from about 1.8 billion tonnes to 1.7 billion tonnes. This
is because not all supply is coming to market, because
of back-loading of certificates into the market stabi-
lity reserve, partial cessations and not issuing all new
entrant reserve. However, as long as there is no rule
that would permanently cancel surplus certificates
from the market stability reserve, these certificates
currently held back will one day enter the market.
Therefore, the structural surplus in the EU ETS is get-
ting bigger every year; the cap is just so much higher
than actual emissions. In 2016, this surplus has in-
creased to above 3 billion tonnes for the first time
see figure 29.

ETS surplus 20082016 Figure 29

3500 3157
2902
3000 2672

2500 2186
1877
2000
2088 2067
Mt CO2

1500 1763 1785

1137 1656
1000 682
377 966
500
69 508
0 220
-34
-500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

Cumulative Surplus currently available to market Cumulative Surplus relative to cap

Own calculations; *preliminary

31
Agora Energiewende | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

32
 ANALYSIS | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

7 Outlook

The outlook on consumption is for continued stag-
nation, until there is a big successful push on energy
efficiency to ensure that economic growth increases
efficiency investments. The European Commission is
forecasting EU GDP growth of 1.5 percent in 2017 and
1.7 percent in 2018, with growth higher in eastern
European countries10 if this is not met by additional
efforts in efficiency and clean power production in
those countries, this could mean rising emissions in
power production in Eastern Europe.
The outlook on renewables is mixed in 2017, we
would expect the level of installations to be at least as
high as in 2016 as EU Member States seek to achieve
their respective 2020 renewable energy targets. Price
falls, especially in solar and offshore wind, give con-
fidence of continued renewables build. The aver-
age 2011 to 2016 renewables generation growth was
51Terawatt hours per year; it seems reasonable to
assume this going forward. However, post 2020, no
reliable EU renewables framework exists nor is pro-
posed to ensure that the EUs 2030 renewables target
is met, which could drive new investments in clean
power throughout Europe. The more we approach
2020, the more the future of renewables in Europe
becomes uncertain.

10 See ECs Autumn Forecast http://ec.europa.eu/economy_ The outlook for fossil generation is bleak. Fossil ge-
finance/eu/forecasts/2016_autumn_forecast_en.htm neration should fall by at least 70 Terawatt hours in

Fossil power production 2010-2016 and projected total fossil production 2017-2020 Figure 30

2000
1,734
1800 1,679
1,611
1600 1,494
1,379 1,404 1,408
1,338 1,296
1400 1,255
1,204
766

704

586

1200
511

497
461
TWh

598

1000
800
545

528
497

600
494

464
474

386

400
200
344

347

308
326

324
333

325

0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017 2018 2019 2020

Lignite Hard coal Gas Other fossil Total fossil

Own calculations; *preliminary

33
Agora Energiewende | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016
2017, due to a return to normalised French nuclear
generation, a return to normalised wind and solar
conditions and new renewables. Then it will continue
to fall to 2020, with the continued addition of more
renewable capacity. The less predictable factor is
whether the fall in fossil generation will be coal or gas.
This would be most driven by two factors: closures of
old coal plants, and the coal-gas switching price.
Coal power plants amounting to 7 Gigawatt have an-
nounced to close in 2017-2020, representing less
than 5 percent of the European coal fleet. In Germany,
some 2.5 Gigawatt of hard coal will come offline in
2017 and 2.4 Gigawatt of lignite will further go into
reserve by October 2019 (of which 0.6 Gigawatt in
2017). In the Netherlands, one Gigawatt at Maasvlakte
1+2 must close, covering very small units in Poland,
Romania, Spain, Croatia and Italy. Closing 5 percent of
the coal fleet over the next four years will do little to
change overall emissions. However, more coal plants
will likely announce to close, given the vast over-ca-
pacity in many countries still.
On the coal-gas-price-switch, two factors could lead
to gas power plants becoming cheaper than coal:
First, global LNG oversupply could lead to gas
prices to crash again, as new Australian gas in 2017
floods the market, which caused the coal-gas swit-
ching in 2016. However, although this may hap-
pen, it is hard to see this as permanent, especially
with the costs of coal extraction so low and the coal
market once again returning to oversupply.
Second, a higher carbon price. It is clear from the
UK that a 30 Euro/tonne carbon price would lead to
a near-complete hard coal-gas switching. Howe-
ver, even if the ETS reforms voted by the European
Parliaments environment committee in Decem-
ber 2016 were adopted by the Parliament and the
Council, it is unlikely that this would raise the
carbon price by much. The reason is the structural
oversupply, as described in the chapter above.
34
Regarding European energy policy, 2017 will see the
beginning of the legislative procedure on the Clean
Energy for All Europeans-package of proposals and
possibly finalization of further reforms of the EU ETS
and the effort-sharing decision. Thus, energy policy
is back on the agenda in Europe 2017 covering the
whole range of policies from energy efficiency, re-
newables, power market design and climate policy
instruments.
Absent much more drastic reforms, the enormous and
ever-growing emissions surplus in the ETS suggests
prices for emissions allowances will not have a sig-
nificant effect on power market investments at least
until 2030. If the ETS does not push coal out of the
market, we expect more national initiatives to acce-
lerate the shut-down of coal-fired generators or
more member states to adopt a carbon price support
mechanism like the UK. The issue of just transition
that also addresses the socio-economic challenges of
a coal phase-out, particularly in regions with mining
activities, is thus likely to gain momentum in the cle-
an-energy-package negotiations.
Furthermore, we expect the issue of the future of re-
newables to be one of the key fields of debate in 2017.
Given that the stunningly low prices seen for wind
and solar in 2016 were far below the levels expec-
ted by the European Commission when proposing the
2030 climate and energy targets, there is a case to
revisit both the EUs 2030 renewables target and the
mechanisms proposed in the renewables directive.
There is certainly a need for stable and robust regula-
tion coupled with smart financing tools to guarantee
low risk premiums, so that Europe can reap the full
potential of energy efficiency and renewables, also
beyond 2020.
 ANALYSIS | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

8 Annex

8.1 Data

This report is mostly focused around the changes in

generation by country in 2016 versus 2015. Table 1
shows the Terawatt hours changes, which form the
basis of the report; the methodology is outlined in the
section below.

Terawatt hour changes by fuel type by country in 2016 versus 2015 Table 1

Consump-
Hard Coal

Biomass

CO2 (Mt)
Imports
Nuclear
Lignite

Hydro
Other
fossil

Wind
Solar

tion
Gas

etc
EU28 -15.8 -77.8 1.4 101.4 -18.5 6.3 4.0 3.9 2.7 6.2 13.6 -48
Austria 0 -1 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 -1 2 -1
Belgium 0 -2 0 -1 17 0 0 0 0 -14 0 -2
Bulgaria -2 -1 0 1 1 -2 0 0 0 3 0 -2
Cyprus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Czech Republic 1 0 0 1 -3 0 0 0 0 2 0 2
Denmark 0 2 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 2 0 2 1
Estonia 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0
Finland 0 2 0 -1 0 -1 0 1 0 2 2 1
France 0 -1 0 13 -33 3 1 0 1 22 5 4
Germany -5 -8 0 17 -7 3 0 1 1 -4 -2 -5
Greece -4 0 0 5 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 -5
Hungary 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0
Ireland 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 1
Italy 0 -6 -2 10 0 -4 0 2 0 -5 -5 -1
Latvia 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lithuania 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0
Netherlands 0 -3 6 -1 0 1 1 -1 -2 2 0
Poland -2 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 -1 0 1 -1
Portugal 0 -2 0 2 0 7 0 1 0 -7 0 -1
Romania -2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 1 -2
Slovakia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0
Spain -2 -14 0 1 1 8 0 1 0 7 2 -14
Sweden 0 0 1 0 6 -12 0 -1 0 8 2 0
United Kingdom 0 -44 0 45 1 -1 2 -1 1 -3 1 -22

Blue cells are using mostly ENTSO-E data; pink cells are using mostly national system operator data

35
Agora Energiewende | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

8.2 Methodology

When working with recent European power data, va-

Flow chart: Calculation of annual electricity
rious obstacles occur. This applies mostly to genera-
generation
tion data, but also export data are not always com-
plete. Annual Eurostat data for generation is in most
cases available until 2014. Yes
Aggregation
Does annual of different
Eurostat data energy
We then add on the generation differences for 2015 exists? sources and
producers
and 2016. We primarily get these from ENTSO-E
monthly aggregated data. However, ENTSO-E did not No

start reporting all relevant data until mid-January

Disaggregation
2015, and changed their methodology in 2016, whilst Does Yes of conventional
they also had their website offline for most of 2016. monthly Eu- thermal using
rostat data generation share
The ENTSO-E aggregated data is lagged, and for many exists? from previous
countries the data is only available to August 2016. year

Therefore, we also supplement and cross-check this No

data with national governments and national energy

institutions, and also with some ENTSO-E hourly Yes
Does monthly Use monthly data
data from the transparency platform. ENTSO-E data from ENTSO-E
exist?

We welcome insights to better, more reliable, more

recent data and to the used methodology for the EU. No

Extrapolate data
If not indicated otherwise, all figures in this report via previous
month and scale
are gross values. Gross consumption is calculated as with relative
follows: seasonal factor

ko-Institut 2016
Gross consumption = gross productionexports+
importsgrid lossespump storage losses

Eurostat reports annual data in a very detailed fas-

hion. We aggregated the various energy sources ac-
cording to the following table 2.

36
 ANALYSIS | Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016

Classification of fuel type Table 2

Energy sources as used in this report Detailed energy carriers used in EUROSTAT

Lignite Lignite, peat, patent fuels and BKB (Braunkohlebrikett)

Hard Coal Hard coal, blast furnace gas, coke oven gas

Oil Bitumen, crude oil, diesel, naphtha, kerosene, residual fuel oil

Gas LPG, natural gas liquids, gas work gas and other recovered gases

Industrial waste, non-renewable municipal waste, shale oil, oil sands,

Other
gas coke, coal tar, coke oven coke, coking coal, petroleum coke

Gaseous, liquid and solid energy carriers plus the renewable share of
Biomass
waste, if reported separately

Other renewables Geothermal plus tide, wave and ocean

Should include run-of-river and storage, but no pumped storage for

our purpose. However, hydropower from annual EUROSTAT data in-
cludes generation from pumped storage. Therefore, hydropower is
Hydropower
calculated from hydropower as reported by EUROSTAT minus pumped
storage. Generation from pumped storage does not include energy
from natural inflow; natural inflow is included in stored water.

Solar Photovoltaic and solar thermal

ko-Institut 2016

37
Publications of Agora Energiewende
IN GERMAN

FAQ EEG Energiewende: Was bedeuten die neuen Gesetze?

Zehn Fragen und Antworten zu EEG 2017, Strommarkt- und Digitalisierungsgesetz

Eigenversorgung aus Solaranlagen

Das Potenzial fr Photovoltaik-Speicher-Systeme in Ein- und Zweifamilienhusern,
Landwirtschaft sowie im Lebensmittelhandel

Elf Eckpunkte fr einen Kohlekonsens

Konzept zur schrittweisen Dekarbonisierung des deutschen Stromsektors
(Lang- und Kurzfassung)

Der Klimaschutzbeitrag der Stromsektors bis 2040

Entwicklungspfade fr die deutschen Kohlekraftwerke und deren wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen

Wie hoch ist der Stromverbrauch in der Energiewende?

Energiepolitische Zielszenarien 2050 - Rckwirkungen auf den Ausbaubedarf von
Windenergie und Photovoltaik

Ein Kraftwerkspark im Einklang mit den Klimazielen

Handlungslcke, Manahmen und Verteilungseffekte bis 2020

Transparenzdefizite der Netzregulierung

Bestandsaufnahme und Handlungsoptionen

Die Entwicklung der EEG-Kosten bis 2035

Wie der Erneuerbaren-Ausbau entlang der langfristigen Ziele der Energiewende wirkt

Aktionsplan Lastmanagement
Endbericht einer Studie von Connect Energy Economics

Die Sonnenfinsternis 2015: Vorschau auf das Stromsystem 2030

Herausforderungen fr die Stromversorgung in Systemen mit hohen Anteilen an Wind- und Solarenergie

Die Rolle des Emissionshandels in der Energiewende

Perspektiven und Grenzen der aktuellen Reformvorschlge

Netzentgelte in Deutschland
Herausforderungen und Handlungsoptionen

Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz 3.0
Konzept einer strukturellen EEG-Reform auf dem Weg zu einem neuen Strommarktdesign

38
Publications of Agora Energiewende
Stromspeicher in der Energiewende
Untersuchung zum Bedarf an neuen Stromspeichern in Deutschland fr den Erzeugungsausgleich,
Systemdienstleistungen und im Verteilnetz

Energieeffizienz als Geschftsmodell

Ein Umsetzungsmodell fr Artikel 7 der europischen Effizienzrichtlinie

Power-to-Heat zur Integration von ansonsten abgeregeltem Strom aus

Erneuerbaren Energien
Handlungsvorschlge basierend auf einer Analyse von Potenzialen und energiewirtschaftlichen Effekten

Positive Effekte von Energieeffizienz auf den deutschen Stromsektor

Endbericht einer Studie von der Prognos AG und dem Institut fr Elektrische Anlagen und
Energiewirtschaft (IEAW)

12 Thesen zur Energiewende

Ein Diskussionsbeitrag zu den wichtigsten Herausforderungen im Strommarkt, (Lang- und Kurzfassung)

IN ENGLISH

FAQ EEG Energiewende: What do the new laws mean?

Ten questions and answers about EEG 2017, the Electricity Market Act, and the Digitisation Act

Reducing the cost of financing renewables in Europe

A proposal for an EU Renewable Energy Cost Reduction Facility ("RES-CRF")

Refining Short-Term Electricity Markets to Enhance Flexibility

Stocktaking as well as Options for Reform in the Pentalateral Energy Forum Region

Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2015

Review on the developments in 2015 and outlook on 2016

A Pragmatic Power Market Design for Europe's Energy Transition

The Power Market Pentagon

Eleven Principles for a Consensus on Coal

Concept for a stepwise decarbonisation of the German power sector (Short Version)

The Integration Costs of Wind and Solar Power

An Overview of the Debate of the Effects of Adding Wind and Solar Photovoltaics into Power Systems

All publications are available on our website: www.agora-energiewende.de

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How do we accomplish the

Energiewende?
Which legislation, initiatives, and
measures do we need to make it a
success? Agora Energiewende helps
to prepare the ground to ensure that
Germany sets the course towards
a fully decarbonised power sector.
As a think-&-do-tank, we work
with key stakeholders to enhance
the knowledge basis and facilitate
convergence of views.

Agora Energiewende
Anna-Louisa-Karsch-Strae 2 | 10178 Berlin
P +49. (0)30. 284 49 01-00
F +49. (0)30. 284 49 01-29
www.agora-energiewende.de
info@agora-energiewende.de

Agora Energiewende is a joint initiative of the Mercator Foundation and the European Climate Foundation.