1

BELL CURVE TRADING

323 Georgia Road
Freehold, NJ 07728
843-849-7570
JMusolino@BELLCURVEtrading.com GFlynn@BELLCURVEtrading.com
WStrazzullo@BELLCURVEtrading.com www.bellcurvetrading.com
October 18, 2016
GOLD SHORT-TERM

PLEASE SEE THE 2nd PICTURE BELOW:

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GOLD - SHORT-TERM

PLEASE SEE THE 3rd PICTURE & COMMENTARY BELOW:

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GOLD - SHORT-TERM

10/18- December Contract. Last letter (Oct. 12th, read below) we advised traders to
get LONG from $1240.00 to $1256.00 looking for $1270.00, $1282.00, $1292.00 -
$1300.00 (mid-range area on the Sept. 26th sell off, directly above and broken out on
the right in the first two frames) and potentially much higher. Since our last letter
the market bottomed right in the heart of our BUY zone on Oct. 14th ($1246.90)
and currently changes hands at $1255.90. Whats next? We are not thrilled by the
price action but we are buying against support on a longer term curve (the Dec.
2015 rally off the lows first picture curve on the left) so we will STAY LONG. Use
the same objectives mapped out above. Do not add to long positions until we see
some movement in the direction of our profit objectives (building value and closing
above the $1270.00 balance point on the Sept. 26th down curve would be the
greenlight for the next $25.00 to $50.00 on the upside). Building value below
$1240.00 and closing below $1212.00 (Dec. 2015 mid-range) cancels this trade.
4

10/12- December Contract. Tough luck last letter (Oct. 4th, read below) we
advised traders: SELL from $1329.00 to $1324.00 looking for $1319.00, $1313.00,
$1305.00 - $1300.00 (current target of the Sept. 26th down curve, expect a bounce this
is also the mid-range area on the May 2016 up curve, second picture curve on the left),
and possibly as deep as $1260.00 - $1240.00. Why this low? This would be a full mean
reversion retracement on the critical Dec. 2015 rally off the lows (first picture curve on
the left). Right idea as Dec. Gold really gave it up this past week and traded as deep
as $1243.20 on Oct. 7th (right around the bottom of our final objective). The
problem was the market did not give us an opportunity to get short as it topped out
at $1315.40 on Oct. 4th. Therefore we are positioned FLAT. The market currently
changes hands at $1256.10. Whats next? Dec. Gold should try to rally from in
front of the $1240.00 level as this is fair value on the critical Dec. 2015 rally off the
lows (again, first picture curve on the left). Traders can get LONG from $1240.00 to
$1256.00 looking for $1270.00, $1282.00, $1292.00 - $1300.00 (mid-range area on the
Sept. 26th sell off, directly above and broken out on the right in the first two frames)
and potentially much higher. Why much higher ? Remember, Gold is rallying from
our Long-term $1200.00 - $900.00 buy zone, the current Dec. 2015 rally off the lows
projects move to $1430.00, AND if the bulls can lock in the higher longest line (on
the Dec. 2015 rally) around $1328.00 the target becomes $1550.00 - $1600.00. Only
building value below $1240.00 and closing below $1212.00 (Dec. 2015 mid-range)
cancels this trade.
5

GOLD INTERMEDIATE-TERM

7/26- Continuation Contract. We were short from $1245.00 down to $1190.00

(11/4/14 Intermediate-term Letter) and had already taken some profit at $1100.00
and $1050.00 when we got stopped out on remaining short positions with the weekly
close above $1320.00 on July 1st (the actual close was $1339.00). Therefore we are
positioned FLAT. Whats next? The critical development is the bulls have broken
the balance point ($1270.00) on the Feb. 2013 down curve (left side of picture
directly above and also broken out on the right in the second Long-term picture).
This signals a further rally to the Feb. 2013 mid-range ($1360/70.00 achieved) and
potentially all the way to $1440.00 (last line of resistance on this critical down move).
Intermediate-term traders can now BUY in front of the Feb. 2013 balance point:
$1270.00. GET LONG from $1270.00 to $1300.00 looking for $1360/70.00, $1400.00,
and onto $1420.00 - $1450.00. Only building value below $1270.00 and closing
below the balance point on the Dec. 2015 rally off the lows ($1240.00 right side of
6

picture directly above), on a weekly basis, cancels this trade. Intermediate-term

traders can get SHORT from $1420.00 to $1450.00 (this is also the target of the Dec.
2015 rally off the lows).

3/1- Continuation Contract. We are SHORT from $1245.00 to $1190.00 looking for
$1100.00, $1050.00, $1000.00 and onto $950.00 - $900.00 (11/4/14 Intermediate-term
Letter). We have already taken some profit on this trade at $1100.00. In our last
Intermediate-term letter (Nov. 3rd, read below) we advised traders to stay short
remaining positions, we did not add, and we recommended traders take some profit
at the objectives mapped out above. Since our last Intermediate-term letter the
Continuation Contract has traded as deep as $1046.20 on Dec. 3rd. Therefore
Intermediate-term traders had the opportunity to take more profit at our next
objective: $1050.00. Whats next? This is the counter-argument that Gold is
putting in a bottom. Why? NOTICE how the Feb. 2013 down curve (directly above)
is close to moving its high volume area / longest line / fair value from $1305/$1290
to $1200/$1185. This tells us the Intermediate-term momentum is still overall
bearish. Therefore STAY SHORT remaining positions. We will not add until the
high volume price gets locked in at $1200/$1185 and use the aforementioned
objectives. Building value above $1290.00 (Feb. 2013 balance point) and closing
above $1320.00, on a weekly basis, cancels the rest of this Intermediate-term bearish
trade and tells us the bottom is in on the bear market in Gold.
7

GOLD LONG TERM

PLEASE SEE 2ND PICTURE AND COMMENTARY BELOW:

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GOLD LONG-TERM

10/4/16- Very Nice Continuation Contract. We have been scaling in LONG

positions from $1200.00 down to the lows ($1046.20 12/3/15) after catching an
amazing sell off from the $1750.00 - $1800.00 area down to $1200.00 (3/27/12 &
10/2/12 letters). Traders that got long have already been able to take some profit at
$1300.00 and $1360/$1400.00 (remember, the market first reached $1200.00 back in
late June of 2013 and then traded as high as $1428.00 in late August of 2013, we
advised traders to get long in front of $900.00 in our 3/27/12 letter and defined it in
more detail in our 10/2/12 letter: get long in the $1200.00 - $900.00 support zone, we
have kept $1200.00 - $900.00 as our long-term support area ever since). Whats
next? STAY LONG remaining positions. We will not add at this point. Why? Last
Long-term Letter (4/26/16, read below) we noted: One change we would note is that
the market should not make new lows at this stage. In fact, we should start to see a
bigger picture rally develop in the next 6 to 9 months. Therefore we will not add to long
9

positions at this time. We have been buying in our $1200.00 - $900.00 support area for
several years. Now it is time for the market to begin a sustained long-term rally. At the
time of our last letter Gold was trading around $1242.00. It bottomed at $1199.00
on May 31st and then traded as high as $1377.50 on July 6th. You have to go back to
March of 2014 to find better prices. The market currently changes hands $1314.10.
Traders can take profit on remaining long positions at $1360.00/$1400.00,
$1450.00/$1480.00 (top of the current distribution / trading range) and then we will
watch how the Dec. 2015 rally off the lows (on the far right in the picture directly
above and on the left in the first picture in the letter) develops from there. Building
value below $1050.00 and closing below $900.00, on a monthly basis, cancels the rest
of this trade.

4/26/16- Continuation Contract. We have been scaling in LONG positions from

$1200.00 down to the lows ($1046.20 12/3/15) after catching an amazing sell off
from the $1750.00 - $1800.00 area down to $1200.00 (3/27/12 & 10/2/12 letters).
Traders that got long have already been able to take some profit at $1300.00 and
$1360/$1400.00 (remember, the market first reached $1200.00 back in late June of
2013 and then traded as high as $1428.00 in late August of 2013, we advised traders
to get long in front of $900.00 in our 3/27/12 letter and defined it in more detail in
our 10/2/12 letter: get long in the $1200.00 - $900.00 support zone, we have kept
$1200.00 - $900.00 as our long-term support area ever since). Whats next? STAY
LONG remaining positions. One change we would note is that the market should
not make new lows at this stage. In fact, we should start to see a bigger picture rally
develop in the next 6 to 9 months. Therefore we will not add to long positions at this
time. We have been buying in our $1200.00 - $900.00 support area for several years.
Now it is time for the market to begin a sustained long-term rally. Building value
below $1050.00 and closing below $900.00, on a monthly basis, cancels the rest of
this trade. Building value above $1300.00 (critical resistance on our Intermediate-
term Feb. 2013 down curve, also broken out on the right in the picture directly
above) and closing above $1450.00 (top of the current distribution), on a monthly
basis, would confirm a bottom and the beginning of the next major up leg.
10

October 18, 2016

SILVER SHORT-TERM

PLEASE SEE THE 2ND PICTURE BELOW:

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SILVER SHORT-TERM

PLEASE SEE THE 3rd PICTURE & COMMENTARY BELOW:

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SILVER SHORT-TERM

10/18- December Contract. Last letter (Oct. 18th, read below) we advised traders to
BUY from $17.100 to $17.520 looking for $17.640/700, $18.000, $18.360/480 (mid-
range area on the recent Sept. sell off, directly above and broken out on the right in
the first two pictures, this area is also the mid-range on the June 1st rally, second
picture curve on the left) and potentially much higher. Since our last letter Dec.
Silver traded into our BUY zone on Oct. 12th (the actual low was $17.380) and the
next day traded right to our first profit objective (the actual high was $17.705). We
set traders up to BUY at very good levels and put a little in the bank at $17.640/700.
Wait, it gets betteron Friday Dec. Silver traded back into our BUY zone (the actual
low was $17.315) allowing us to RELOAD at even better levels. The market
currently changes hands at $17.460. Whats next? STAY LONG remaining
positions. Use the objectives mapped out above. We will not add until the market
clears the $17.700 level (balance point on the late Sept. sell off). Building value and
closing above $17.700 is the signal for the next leg higher to the Sept. mid-range
13

($18.360/480) and possibly more. Building value below $17.100 and closing below
$16.640 (balance point on the July 2014 down curve, first picture curve on the left)
cancels the rest of this trade.

10/12- December Contract. Like Gold, frustrating.we mapped it out very nicely
last week: SELL from $19.470 to $19.140 looking for $18.900, $18.600/400 (mid-
range on the June 1st up curve, second picture curve on the left), and onto the current
target of the Sept. 22nd sell off: $18.200 - $18.000. However, the high since our last
letter was $18.940 on Oct. 4th so we are still positioned FLAT. Whats next? Dec.
Silver traded all the way down to $17.115 on Friday and currently changes hands at
$17.490. The market traded beyond the first objective of the late Sept. sell off
(directly above and broken out on the right in the first two frames) and went right
to key support on the June 1st rally (second picture curve on the left) which is also
the mid-range area on the Dec. 2015 rally off the lows (first picture second curve
from the left). These critical support areas have held so traders can now get LONG
in front of $17.100. BUY from $17.100 to $17.520 looking for $17.640/700, $18.000,
$18.360/480 (mid-range area on the recent Sept. sell off, directly above and broken
out on the right in the first two pictures, this area is also the mid-range on the June
1st rally, second picture curve on the left) and potentially much higher. Why much
higher? Because the top of the range in the first frame is $21.000/500 while the June
1st up curve projects a move as high as $23.000. The market is also positioned at the
beginning of our Long-term support area. Building value below $17.100 and closing
below $16.640 (balance point on the July 2014 down curve, first picture curve on the
left) cancels this trade.
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SILVER INTERMEDIATE-TERM

8/2- Continuation Contract. Same basic game plan: We are currently positioned
LONG from the $19.400 - $14.000 buy-tail on the April 2011 down curve
highlighted directly above (sell off from the highs, same basic high as 1980, around
$50.00). We have been able to take some profit at $22.500 on LONG positions and
RELOAD back in the buy-tail. Whats next? STAY LONG remaining positions.
We will not add until we see more progress in the direction of our profit objectives.
Traders can take some profit at $21.000/500, $22.500, $24.000, and higher. Note how
we wrote about the importance of Silver exiting the buy-tail in our last
Intermediate-term commentary (April 26th, directly below). Since our last letter
Silver has traded up to $21.095 (July 5th) , allowing traders to take more profit at
$21.000/500, but more importantly the market has continued to build value above
$19.400. If this continues to be the case we will use the Dec. 2015 rally off the lows
(right side of picture directly above) to adjust our BUY zone higher.
15

4/26- Continuation Contract. Same basic game plan: We are currently positioned
LONG from the $19.400 - $14.000 buy-tail on the April 2011 down curve
highlighted directly above (sell off from the highs, same basic high as 1980, around
$50.00). We have been able to take some profit at $22.500 on LONG positions and
RELOAD back in the buy-tail. Whats next? STAY LONG remaining positions.
We will not add until we see more progress in the direction of our profit objectives.
Traders can take some profit at $21.000/500, $22.500, $24.000, and higher. One note,
we really need to see the market move out of the buy-tail over the next 6 to 9 months
otherwise we will move to the sidelines.

SILVER- LONG-TERM

10/4/16- Continuation Contract. You know the game plan here: BUY from $12.000 to
$18.000 and get SHORT from $44.000 to $50.000. Call $27.000/$31.000 fair value
in this range (and use this area as an interim profit objective on the upside and
downside). Only building value below $12.000 and closing below $5.000 OR building
16

value above $50.000 and closing above $58.000, on a monthly basis, cancels this
range. We are positioned LONG as the market has bottomed around the lower end
of our BUY zone (there were many opportunities to get long below $14.000 at the
end of last year, beginning of this year the market currently changes hands at
$18.880). Last Long-term letter (May 3, 2016 read below) we wrote that if the
next major move is to upside (which was our belief) it should begin in the next 6 to 9
months. On May 3rd of this year Silver was trading around $17.500. The market
traded as deep as $15.830 on June 1st and then rallied all the way to $21.095 on July
5th. Whats next? STAY LONG. Do not add at this time. Take some profit at
$19.250, $20.500, $21.500, and higher. The rally off the lows is broken out on the far
right in the picture directly above AND it is also highlighted in the first picture in
the Silver Letter (on the right Dec. 2015 up curve).

5/3/16- Continuation Contract. You know the game plan here: BUY from $12.000 to
$18.000 and get SHORT from $44.000 to $50.000. Call $28.000/$31.000 fair value
in this range (and use this area as an interim profit objective on the upside and
downside). Only building value below $12.000 and closing below $5.000 OR building
value above $50.000 and closing above $58.000, on a monthly basis, cancels this
range. The one development we would like to highlight is the fact that the market
has been building a lot of value in our $18.000 - $12.000 buy area. This is the 19th
month in a row that the monthly value area has been below $18.000. What does this
tell us? The breakout from the July 2009 time frame (far right side of the picture
directly above) should now commence from a much lower level. Our original
thought was that the market would gravitate back to $28.000/$31.000, rotate, and
then breakout BUT now we see the next unbalanced move starting from $12.000 to
$18.000. If that move is going to be higher it should begin in the next 6 to 9 months.
17

October 18, 2016

CRUDE OIL SHORT-TERM

PLEASE SEE THE 2ND PICTURE & COMMENTARY BELOW:

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CRUDE OIL SHORT-TERM

10/18- Nice ROLLED TO THE DECEMBER CONTRACT. The November to

December roll costs 40 cents. We were LONG from $42.45 - $43.95 per our Sept.
13th letter and had already taken some profit on this trade at $44.70/$45.20,
$46.00/20, $47.00, $48.50, and $50.00. In our Sept. 27th letter we advised traders to
BUY again from $44.80 to $45.60. Anyone who followed this recommendation got
filled throughout our support area and has had the opportunity to take some profit
at $46.20, $47.00, $48.50, and $50.00 as well. Last letter (Oct. 12th, read below) we
advised traders to take remaining profit around current levels ($50.82) up to $53.00.
The reason for this is the August 3rd up curve (directly above and broken out on the
right in the first frame a derivative of the Feb. 2016 rally off the lows, first picture
curve on the left) had reached its SELL-TAIL. We also recommended traders get
SHORT from $51.50 to $53.00 (smaller size as this is counter-trend) looking for
19

$51.00, $49.50, $48.00, and down to fair value on the August 3rd rally: $47.00 to
$45.50. Since our last letter Nov. Crude topped out at $51.17 on Oct. 12th and $51.14
on Oct. 14th. This allowed traders to take remaining profits on long positions at good
levels but we did not have an opportunity to set-up short positions. Therefore we are
positioned FLAT. Whats next (December Contract)? Traders can scale in SHORT
positions in the Sell-Tail on the August 3rd up curve: $51.00 to $53.00. Take some
profit at $50.00, $48.50, and down to fair value on the August 3rd rally: $47.00 to
$45.50. Building value above $53.00 and closing above $54.00 cancels this trade.
Again, drop the size on this one because it is counter-trend. Why is it counter-trend?
The dominant trend right now is the rally off the Feb. 2016 lows (first picture curve
on the left). Remember, this rally started from our Long-term support area. The
Feb. 2016 rally now projects a further move to $64.00 - $65.00. However, the
completion of the August 3rd rally tells us we could see a pullback to the high / mid
$40s before that happens. This is one reason we are playing the down move the
other is to reestablish LONG positions at better levels for the subequent rally to
$64.00 - $65.00. Therefore traders can also BUY from $45.50 to $47.50 (normal size)
looking for $49.00, $50.00, $51.50, $53.00, $55.00 and eventually onto $64.00 -
$65.00. Only building value below $45.75 (August 3rd balance point) and closing
below $44.00 (Feb. 2016 balance point) cancels this trade. IF the bulls can move the
longest line higher on the August 3rd rally we will have to move our buy zone higher as
well.

10/12- November Contract. Very Nice We are LONG from $42.45 - $43.95 per
our Sept. 13th letter and have already taken some profit on this trade at
$44.70/$45.20, $46.00/20, $47.00, and $48.50. In our Sept. 27th letter we advised
traders to BUY again from $44.80 to $45.60. Anyone who followed this
recommendation got filled throughout the support area and has had the opportunity
to take some profit at $46.20, $47.00, and $48.50. Last letter (Oct. 4th, read below)
we advised traders to stay long remaining positions and for those traders looking to
get involved or RELOAD buy from $46.60 to $47.50 and all traders can take some
profit at $48.50, $50.00, $52.00 - $53.00, and higher. The bad news is that we did not
have the opportunity to get LONG a third time as the market bottomed at $48.26
since our last letter BUT the good news is that the market traded as high as $51.60
this Monday and $51.54 this Tuesday so all traders with existing positions got to
take more profit at $48.50 and $50.00 while we came close on our third objective:
$52.00 - $53.00. The market currently changes hands at $50.82. Whats next?
NOTICE how current levels have taken Nov. Crude into the SELL-TAIL on the
August 3rd up curve ($51.00 to $53.00, directly above and broken out on the right in
the first frame). Therefore traders should take remaining profit around current
levels up to $53.00. Traders can also get SHORT from $51.50 to $53.00 (smaller size
as this is counter-trend) looking for $51.00, $49.50, $48.00, and down to fair value
on the August 3rd rally: $47.00 to $45.50. Only building value above $53.00 and
closing above $54.00 cancels this trade. Traders can get LONG again from $47.00 to
$45.50 (normal size) looking for the same numbers on the upside and possibly
more. Why more? Because the rally off the Feb. 2016 lows (first picture, curve on
the left) projects further upside to $64.00 - $65.00. Only building value below $46.00
20

and closing below $44.00 cancels this trade. PLEASE SEE our updated Long-term
picture and commentary below.

CRUDE OIL INTERMEDIATE-TERM

8/9- Continuation Contract. Very nicewe were long from in front $30.00 (12/8/15
Intermediate-term Letter) and last Intermediate-term Letter (April 26th, read
below) we advised traders to: take their profits around current levels ($42.64) up to
$46.00. Intermediate-term traders can also get SHORT from $44.00 up to $50.00
(balance point on the critical Sept. 2014 breakout curve, left side of picture directly
above and broken out on the right in the Long-term view). On the downside look for
$42.00, $40.00, $37.00/$36.00, $32.00, $28.00/$26.00 and possibly lowerSince our
last Intermediate-term letter Crude Oil traded as high as $51.62 on June 8th and
$51.67 on June 9th (our stop was building value above $50.00 and closing above
$55.00, on a weekly basis). The market sold off as expected, trading all the way to
21

$39.19 on August 3rd. We set traders up to catch a great move on the upside and on
the downside we have been able to take some profit at $42.00 & $40.00. The
market currently changes hands at $42.84. Whats next? Take some more profit
around current levels down to $40.50. The market is trying to bounce because we
have hit the mid-range area ($39.00) on the rally off the February 2016 lows (third
curve from the left in the picture directly above). At this point in the trade you
should have taken one-third to one-half profit. We will STAY SHORT the
remaining position and see how the rally off the early August lows progresses
(highlighted in the Short-term view). For now building value above $44.00 (balance
point on the June 2015 down curve, second curve from the left in the picture directly
above, a derivative of the Sept. 2014 downside breakout) and closing above $49.00
(new balance point on the Sept. 2014 breakout curve, left side of picture directly
above), on a weekly basis, cancels the rest of this trade. Use the objectives mapped
out above.

4/26- Continuation Contract. Last Intermediate-term Letter (Dec. 8th, read below)
we advised traders to GET SHORT from $44.25 to $42.00 looking for $40.00,
$38.00, $36.00 - $35.00 (by this point in the trade you should have taken at least
50% profit) and onto $32.50 - $30.00 (target area of the Oct. 2015 down curve and
the June 2015 down curve, second curve from the left in the picture directly above).
We missed on the downside as the market topped out at $38.99 on Dec. 9th and then
traded down to our final objective and then some. HOWEVER, we also advised
Intermediate-term traders to get LONG in front of $30.00 as this was the expected
bottom of our Long-term range at the time of our last Intermediate-term letter (the
Continuation Contract ended up bottoming out right in front of $26.00 on Jan. 20th
and Feb. 11th and never came close to building any monthly value below $30.00).
Traders who got LONG should take their profits around current levels ($42.64) up
to $46.00. Intermediate-term traders can also get SHORT from $44.00 up to $50.00
(balance point on the critical Sept. 2014 breakout curve, left side of picture directly
above and broken out on the right in the Long-term view). On the downside look
for $42.00, $40.00, $37.00/$36.00, $32.00, $28.00/$26.00 and possibly lower (the Sept.
2014 down curve shows the potential to trade below $26.00 although we would clean
up the rest of the trade at $28.00 - $26.00 unless the June 2015 down curve moved its
longest line lower). Building value above $50.00 and closing above $55.00, on a
weekly basis, cancels this trade.
22

CRUDE OIL LONG-TERM

10/12/16- Continuation Contract. If there has been a better big picture Crude Oil call
somewhere on this planet please let me know Since the beginning of 2015 we have
mapped out the new normal in Crude Oil: $90.00 is the top of the range, $60.00 is
fair value, and $39.00 - $30.00 is where the market should bottom out (this was at
a time when the market consensus still called for a move back to $100.00/barrel or
higher). We are currently positioned LONG from $30.00 - $39.00 and have taken
one-third profit around $47.87 and a little more at $50.00 per our last Long-term
commentary (5/17/16 - read below). Whats next? STAY LONG the rest of your
position. Traders looking to get involved or RELOAD can BUY from $26.00 to
$36.00 and all traders can take some profit at $42.00, $47.00, $50.00, $55.00, $60.00,
$70.00, and eventually all the way back to $80.00 - $90.00. Only building value
below $26.00 and closing below $20.00, on a monthly basis, cancels the rest of this
23

trade. Long-term traders can get SHORT from $80.00 to $90.00. See the range
mapped out directly above.

5/17/16- Continuation Contract. If there has been a better big picture Crude Oil call
somewhere on this planet please let me know Since the beginning of 2015 we have
mapped out the new normal in Crude Oil: $90.00 is the top of the range, $60.00 is
fair value, and $39.00 - $30.00 is where the market should bottom out (this was at
a time when the market consensus still called for a move back to $100.00/barrel).
We are currently positioned LONG from $30.00 - $39.00. Whats next? Take one-
third profit around current levels ($47.87) and STAY LONG the rest of your
position. Traders looking to get involved or RELOAD can BUY from $26.00 to
$36.00 and all traders can take some profit at $42.00, $47.00, $50.00, $55.00, $60.00,
and eventually all the way back to $80.00 - $90.00. Only building value below
$26.00 and closing below $20.00, on a monthly basis, cancels the rest of this trade.
Long-term traders can get SHORT from $80.00 to $90.00. See the range mapped out
directly above.
24

October 18, 2016

COPPER SHORT-TERM

PLEASE SEE THE 2ND PICTURE & COMMENTARY BELOW:

25

COPPER SHORT-TERM

10/18- December Contract. We were playing the range from $2.145 to $2.265 and
had taken a couple of winning trades out of it but got stopped out on remaining long
positions with the close below $2.125 on Oct. 13th (the actual close was $2.1220).
Therefore we are now positioned FLAT. Whats next? The July down curve (left
side of picture directly above and the second curve from the left in the first frame)
looks to be starting its next leg lower courtesy of the Oct. 12th liquidation (on the
right in the picture directly above and also broken out on the far right in the first
picture). This is significant because the sell off from late July is itself a derivative of
the more important May 2015 down curve (first picture curve on the left). Traders
should get SHORT in front of the Oct. 12th mid-range: $2.145. SELL from $2.145 to
$2.120 looking for $2.085/070, $2.040 (current Oct. 12th target), $2.010/000, and
potentially lower. We still look at the bottom of our Long-term support around the
26

$1.800 level. Only building value above $2.145 and closing above $2.180 cancels this
trade. PLEASE SEE our updated Intermediate-term picture and commentary below.

10/12- December Contract. We were long from our $2.145 - $2.165 buy zone (Sept.
27th letter) and had already taken some profit on this trade at $2.200/210 when we
were stopped on remaining long positions with the close below $2.170 on Oct. 4th
(the actual close was $2.1670). Thats okay because we were able to BUY again in
our $2.145 - $2.165 support area with the move down to $2.1455 on Oct. 6th and the
move down to $2.1475 on Oct. 7th (both right near the bottom of our buy zone). The
next session (Oct. 10th) Dec. Copper traded to our interim profit objective: $2.200 -
$2.210 (the actual high was $2.2025) so traders had the opportunity to take more
profit at $2.200/210. The market currently changes hands at $2.1855. Whats next?
SAME GAME PLAN: Continue to play the $2.145 to $2.265 range using the same buy
($2.145 - $2.165) and sell ($2.245 - $2.265) zones. Also continue to use $2.200/210 as
an interim profit objective on the upside and downside. Only building value below
$2.145 and closing below $2.125 OR building value above $2.265 and closing above
$2.280 cancels this range or any trades. See the range diagrammed directly above.
27

COPPER INTERMEDIATE-TERM

10/18- Continuation Contract. We are LONG from $2.050 - $1.800 (12/8/15

Intermediate-term letter) and have already taken some profit on this trade
$2.300/400 (read below for more details). Last Intermediate-term letter (May 10th,
read below) we advised traders to stay long remaining positions and for those
traders looking to get involved or RELOAD buy from $2.110 to $1.800 looking for
$2.300/400, $2.600/700 (mid-range on the Long-term July 2003 up curve, see picture
below curve on the left) and then we will have to see how the rally develops from
there. Since our last letter the market traded down to $2.0130 on June 9th before
rallying to the area just in front of our first profit objective (the actual high was
$2.2735 on July 13th). The market currently changes hands at $2.1070. Whats
next? STAY LONG remaining positions. Traders can RELOAD around current
levels down to $1.800 and all traders can take some profit at $2.250/300, $2.450,
28

$2.600/700, $2.900/$3.000 and eventually back to fair value (mean reversion

retracement) on the Feb. 2011 down curve directly above: $3.180 - $3.360. FOR
ALL LONG POSITIONS only building value below $1.800 and closing below
$1.600, on a monthly basis, cancels the rest of this trade.

5/10- Continuation Contract. So far so good Last Intermediate-term letter (Dec.

8th, read below) we advised traders to get LONG from $2.050 down to $1.800 (Feb.
2011 target sell off from the highs, left side of picture directly above and also
featured in our Long-term commentary) looking for $2.300/400, $2.600/700 (mid-
range on the Long-term July 2003 up curve) and then we will have to see how the
rally develops from there. Since our last Intermediate-term letter Copper has
traded as low as $1.9365 (Jan. 15th) and $1.9355 (Jan. 16th) right in the heart of our
Intermediate-term BUY zone. After those early year lows the market traded as high
as $2.3000 (March 4th), $2.3145 (March 18th), and $2.3020 (April 22nd) right at
our first profit objective: $2.300 - $2.400. Traders should have taken a nice piece
out of this trade. Whats next? STAY LONG remaining positions. Intermediate-
term traders can now get LONG from $2.110 to $1.800 using the objectives mapped
out above. FOR ALL LONG POSITIONS only building value below $1.800 and
closing below $1.600, on a weekly basis, cancels the rest of this trade.
29

COPPER LONG-TERM

8/16/16- Continuation Contract. We caught a great sell off from the $3.200 area all
the way down to $2.400. We also recommended traders start scaling in LONG
positions around current levels ($2.590) down to $1.800 (target of the Feb. 2011
bearish curve, sell off from the highs, right side of picture directly above, the $1.800
level is also around where the high volume area in the distribution below the mid-
range starts on the July 2003 breakout curve, left side of picture directly above). We
have been writing about a move to the $1.800 area as far back as our Sept. 16th, 2014
letter where we talked about the Feb. 2011 down curve taking the market to $2.100 /
$1.900. See if anyone else had this major down move that early. By the way the
market closed at $3.160 on 9/16/14 and the low trade thus far comes in at $1.940/930
(Jan. 15th & 19th of 2016). Whats next? Same basic game plan: STAY LONG &
scale-in down to $1.800. The first place to take some profit is the July 2003 mid-
range: $2.700. Remember, the July 2003 up curve still points to $5.500 - $6.000.
30

Only building value below $1.800 and closing below $1.280, on monthly basis,
cancels this trade.

2/9/16- Continuation Contract. We caught a great sell off from the $3.200 area all the
way down to $2.400. We also recommended traders start scaling in LONG positions
around current levels ($2.590) down to $1.800 (target of the Feb. 2011 bearish
curve, sell off from the highs, right side of picture directly above, the $1.800 level is
also around where the high volume area in the distribution below the mid-range
starts on the July 2003 breakout curve, left side of picture directly above). We have
been writing about a move to the $1.800 area as far back as our Sept. 16th, 2014 letter
where we talked about the Feb. 2011 down curve taking the market to $2.100 / $1.900.
See if anyone else had this major down move that early. By the way the market closed
at $3.160 on 9/16/14 and the low trade thus far comes in at $1.940/930 (Jan. 15th &
19th of 2016). Whats next? Same basic game plan: STAY LONG & scale-in down
to $1.800. The first place to take some profit is the July 2003 mid-range: $2.700.
Remember, the July 2003 up curve still points to $5.500 - $6.000. Only building
value below $1.800 and closing below $1.280, on monthly basis, cancels this trade.
31

October 18, 2016

NATURAL GAS SHORT-TERM

PLEASE SEE 2ND PICTURE BELOW:

32

NAT. GAS SHORT-TERM

PLEASE SEE THE 3rd PICTURE & COMMENTARY BELOW:

33

NAT. GAS SHORT-TERM

10/18- Nice November Contract. We are positioned LONG from $2.890/840 per
our Oct. 4th letter. Traders have already been able to take profit at $2.930/940,
$2.980/$3.000, and $3.020 on this trade. Last letter (Oct. 12th, read below) we
advised traders to stay long remaining positions and for those traders looking to get
involved or RELOAD buy from $3.080 to $3.160 and all traders can take some
profit at $3.240/260, $3.350, $3.420, and onto $3.500 - $3.650. The bad news is that
someone got an itchy trigger finger and bought right in front of our new BUY zone
(the actual low was $3.164 on Oct. 13th) but the good news is that Nov. Gas traded as
high as $3.366 on Oct. 13th and $3.362 on Oct. 14th. Therefore traders with existing
long positions got to take more profit at $3.240/260 & $3.350. The market currently
changes hands at $3.244. Whats next? STAY LONG remaining positions. Traders
34

looking to get involved or RELOAD this week can BUY from $3.180 (this is the
balance point on the Oct. 3rd rally, directly above - curve on the left, also broken out
on the far right in the second frame) to $3.110 (mid-range on the Oct. 3rd rally and
the target of the Oct. 14th down curve, right side of picture directly above). Take
some profit at $3.250, $3.350, $3.420, and onto $3.500 - $3.650. FOR ALL LONG
POSITIONS only building value below $3.110 and closing below $3.030 cancels the
rest of this trade. Traders can also get SHORT at $3.500 - $3.650. One important
note: if the market reaches our SELL area ($3.500 - $3.650) first DO NOT take the
long trade. PLEASE SEE our updated Inter./Long-term picture and commentary
below.

10/12- November Contract. Very nice Last letter (Oct. 4th, read below) we advised
traders to get LONG from $2.890 to $2.840 looking for $2.930/940, $2.980/$3.000,
$3.020 (expect some resistance as this is the mid-range on the sell off from the recent
late Sept. highs second picture curve on the right), and then we will have to see
how the rally develops from there. Since our last letter Nov. Gas bottomed at $2.878
on Oct. 4th and then bolted as high as $3.300 this Tuesday. We set traders up to get
LONG at great levels (emphasizing the importance of our buy area in relation to the
Feb. 2016 rally off the yearly lows read below) AND take some profit at $2.930/940,
$2.980/$3.000, and $3.020. The market currently changes hands at $3.215. Whats
next? STAY LONG remaining positions. Why? It is now clear what this rally is all
about: testing the last line of resistance on the critical Nov. 2014 down curve: $3.550
(first picture curve on the left). Traders looking to get involved or RELOAD can
BUY in front of the mid-range on the early Oct. rally directly above: $3.080 (also
broken out on the far right in the second frame). GET LONG from $3.080 to $3.160
and all traders can take some profit at $3.240/260, $3.350, $3.420, and onto $3.500 -
$3.650. FOR ALL LONG POSITIONS only building value below $3.080 and
closing below $3.020 cancels the rest of this trade. Traders can get SHORT from
$3.500 to $3.650 looking for the same numbers on the downside and possibly more.
One important note: if the market reaches our SELL area first DO NOT take the long
trade.
35

NATURAL GAS INTERMED./LONG-TERM

10/18/16- Continuation Contract. We went back to early 2002 (curve on the left in
the picture directly above), when the market began its major rally into the late 2005
highs (second curve from the left in the picture directly above, a bearish down
curve), lastly we broke out the last major leg lower (Nov. 2014 down curve, on the
far right in the picture directly above). What becomes clearer, in a longer term
context, is that we are now dealing with 2 major distributions or trading ranges.
The first one runs from $1.500/800 up to $5.400/$6.000 and the second runs from
$3.900/$4.200 up to $10.000. These two distributions are not discrete but rather
merge with one another, which is normally the case. The area around $5.400/$6.000
can be used as a dividing line. Monthly value above $5.400/$6.000 argues for the top
36

distribution being the relevant trading range while building value below $5.400, on
a monthly basis, argues for the lower distribution.

5/24/16- Continuation Contract. Same basic story: We went back to the all-time
highs in late 2005 (curve on the left in the picture directly above) and aggregated all
the trade activity from that time going forward. What becomes clear is that we are
now dealing with 2 major distributions or trading ranges. The first runs from
$1.500 up to $6.300 (right side of the picture directly above) and the second runs
from $3.900 up to $10.800 (left side of picture directly above). These two
distributions are not discrete but rather merge with one another, which is normally
the case. The area around $5.400 can be used as a dividing line. Monthly value
above $5.400 argues for the top distribution being the relevant trading range while
building value below $5.400, on a monthly basis, argues for the lower distribution.

October 18, 2016

ALUMINUM SHORT-TERM
37

PLEASE SEE THE 2ND PICTURE BELOW:

ALUMINUM- SHORT-TERM

PLEASE SEE THE 3RD PICTURE & COMMENTARY BELOW:

38

ALUMINUM- SHORT-TERM

10/18- LME USD 90 Day Forward. We have been trying to get LONG for several
weeks. The game plan has been to try and jump on the Sept. 21st up curve (second
curve from the left in the picture directly above and broken out on the right in the
second frame) and catch a rally up to the mid-range on the Nov. 2014 down curve:
$1750 (second picture curve on the left). The Sept. 21st up curve now, not
coincidentally, projects a move to the $1750 area. This Monday Aluminum dropped
right to our BUY zone (the actual low was $1647) before rallying to our first profit
objective: $1665. The market currently changes hands around $1660. Whats next?
STAY LONG remaining positions. We will not add to long positions until we see a
more sustained move on the upside. Take the rest of your profit at $1685/90, $1700,
$1720, and onto $1735 - $1760. Only building value and closing below the Sept. 21st
mid-range ($1632) cancels the rest of this trade.
39

10/12- LME USD 90 Day Forward. Last letter (Oct. 4th, read below) we advised
traders to try and BUY again (after just missing the week before): . BUY from $1626
to $1650 looking for $1665, $1685/90 (current Sept. 21st target, up curve broken out
on the right in the second and third pictures), $1700, and potentially all the way to
$1750 (mid-range on the Nov. 2014 down curve, second picture curve on the left
note how the bulls are breaking the balance point on this critical sell off).
Unfortunately close but no cigar again as the market bottomed at $1661.50 on Oct.
5th before trading as high as $1693 this Tuesday. Therefore we are still positioned
FLAT. The market currently changes hands at $1680.50. Whats next? Move your
BUY area up to the new mid-range on the Sept. 21st rally: $1632. GET LONG from
$1632 to $1656 using the objectives mapped out above. Only building value below
$1632 and closing below $1614 cancels this trade.

ALUMINUM INTERMEDIATE-TERM
40

6/1/16- LME USD 90 Day Forward. SAME GAME PLAN: Treat the March 2009
curve (directly above) as a balancing set-up. Get SHORT in the top 15% of the
curve ($2570 to $2800) and get LONG in the bottom 15% of the curve ($1500 to
$1260). Call $2000/$2100 fair value in this range and use this area as an interim
profit objective on the upside and downside. In our last Intermediate-term letter
(Dec. 22, 2015 below) we advised traders to take their first profit on LONG
positions (the market had traded as deep as $1432.50 on 11/23/15) at $1650/$1700.
Since our last Intermediate-term Aluminum letter the market traded as high as
$1686 on 4/29/16 and $1684.50 on 5/3/16. Therefore Intermediate-term traders
should have taken some profit at our first objective. Whats next? STAY LONG
remaining positions. Traders can use the same buy-tail to RELOAD and all traders
can take some profit at $1650/$1700 and then $2000/$2100. Only building value
below $1260 and closing below $1100, on a monthly basis, cancels the rest of this
trade.

12/22/15- LME USD 90 Day Forward. SAME GAME PLAN: Treat the March 2009
curve (directly above) as a balancing set-up. Get SHORT in the top 15% of the
curve ($2570 to $2800) and get LONG in the bottom 15% of the curve ($1500 to
$1260). Call $2000/$2100 fair value in this range and use this area as an interim
profit objective on the upside and downside. Since the recent lows come in around
$1450/$1400 (late Nov. 2015) Intermediate-term traders should be positioned
LONG. Take your first profit at $1650/$1700. NOTICE how the market bottomed
right in front of our buy zone on August 24th ($1506) then traded to $1655.50 in
Sept. before heading back down. Building value below $1260 and closing below
$1150, on a monthly basis, cancels this trade.
41

ALUMINUM LONG-TERM

6/7/16- LME USD 90 Day Forward. MISSION ACCOMPLISHED Finally !!!

We were SHORT from $2950 - $2750 (11/2/10 letter). We had already taken some
profit at $2548, $2400, and $2100/$2000 on this trade. Last Long-term Aluminum
Letter (7/14/15 read below) we advised traders to STAY SHORT remaining
positions and take the rest of your profit from $1600 to $1250. The low since our
last letter is $1432.50 on 11/23/15 - right in the middle of our final target, cant do the
big picture any better than that !!!. Long-term traders have had ample opportunity
to take profit at our final objective on short positions and should now have cleaned
that trade up. Last Long-term Aluminum Letter we also advised traders to begin
accumulating bullish positions in the $1600 - $1250 BUY TAIL on the balancing
September 2003 curve directly above (left side of picture). Whats next? STAY
LONG. Take your first profit at $1700 - $1750 (mid-range area on the Nov. 2014
down curve, right side of picture directly above and also highlighted in the second
42

picture in the letter). Only building value below $1250 and closing below $1000, on
a monthly basis, cancels our bullish trade.

7/14/15- LME USD 90 Day Forward. We are SHORT from $2750 - $2950 (11/2/10
letter). We have already taken some profit at $2548, $2400, and $2100/$2000. Since
our last Long-term letter (8/12/14 read below) the market has come very close to
our final profit-take zone: $1600 - $1250 (buy-tail on the balancing Sept. 2003
curve highlighted directly above left side of picture). The actual low thus far is
$1631.50 on July 8th. Whats next? SAME GAME PLAN: STAY SHORT
remaining positions. Take the rest of your profit from $1600 to $1250. Only
building value and closing above $2250 (mid-range area on the May 2011 down
curve, right side of picture directly above), on a monthly basis, cancels the rest of
this bearish trade. Traders can also start to accumulate LONG positions in the
$1600 - $1250 buy-tail.
43

October 18, 2016

NICKEL SHORT-TERM

PLEASE SEE THE 2ND PICTURE BELOW:

44

NICKEL SHORT-TERM

PLEASE SEE THE 3RD PICTURE BELOW:

45

NICKEL SHORT-TERM

PLEASE SEE THE 4TH PICTURE & COMMENTARY BELOW:

46

NICKEL SHORT-TERM

10/18- LME USD 90 Day Forward. No real changes we are positioned LONG
from excellent levels and have taken profit a number of times as well (see the Oct.
4th letter for more details). Whats next? STAY LONG remaining positions. Use
the same objectives: $10,800 (first major Sept. 16th target, up curve on the right in
the picture directly above), $11,000, $11,300, $11,700 and onto the objective of the
critical June 1st up curve: $11,900 - $12,200 (left side of picture directly above). We
will not add to long positions until we see Nickel build value above $10,600. FOR
ALL LONG POSITIONS only building value below $10,250 (mid-range on the Sept.
16th rally) and closing below $9,950 cancels the rest of this trade. Traders can get
SHORT from $11,900 to $12,200 (mid-range area on the Dec. 2014 down curve,
third picture).
47

10/12- LME USD 90 Day Forward. Same basic story we are positioned LONG
from excellent levels and have taken profit a number of times as well (read below
for more details). Whats next? STAY LONG remaining positions. Use the
objectives mapped out below: $10,800 (first major Sept. 16th target, up curve on the
right in the picture directly above), $11,000, $11,300, $11,700 and onto the
objective of the critical June 1st up curve: $11,900 - $12,200 (left side of picture
directly above). We will not add to long positions again until we see Nickel build
value above $10,600. FOR ALL LONG POSITIONS only building value below
$10,250 (new mid-range on the Sept. 16th rally) and closing below $9,950 cancels the
rest of this trade. Traders can get SHORT from $11,900 to $12,200 (mid-range area
on the Dec. 2014 down curve, third picture).

NICKEL INTERMEDIATE-TERM
48

11/3/15- LME USD 90 Day Forward. Very Nice Last Intermediate-term letter
(11/12/14 - read below) we advised traders to get SHORT from $18,550 to $16,550
looking for $15,000, $14,000, $11,000 and onto $8000 - $7000. Since our last letter
Nickel topped out at $17,200 on Dec. 5, 2014 and has since traded as deep as $9100
on August 12, 2015. Intermediate-term traders had the opportunity to take a BIG
chunk out of this down move. Whats next? At this stage of the trade you should
only have a small SHORT position. Hold it and try to RELOAD in front of the mid-
range on the Sept. 2014 down curve: $14,350. SELL from $14,350 to $13,350
looking for $12,000, $11,000, $10,000, and onto $7500 - $6000 (Sept. 2014 target).
FOR ALL SHORT POSITIONS only building value above $14,350 and closing
above $15,750 (May 2014 mid-range, down curve in the middle of the picture)
cancels the rest of this trade. Intermediate-term traders can get LONG in front of
$6,000.

11/12/14- LME USD 90 Day Forward. We got stopped out on long trades established
at $17,600/$18,900 (May 13th letter, read below) with the weekly close below $16,100
on Oct. 17th (actual close = $15,700). We were trying to play the break of the balance
point ($18,550) on the Feb. 2011 down curve (left side of picture directly above),
which signaled a move to the Feb. 2011 mid-range ($21,000/350 achieved) and
possibly to the high volume area in the distribution above the mid-range on the Feb.
2011 down curve or $26,000. NOTICE, however, that the market topped out right
around the mid-range on the Feb. 2011 sell off and started another major leg lower
with the May 2014 down curve (right side of picture directly above). What does this
tell us? The Feb. 2011 down curve is large and in-charge. That curve points to
$7000. How do we play this move? Intermediate-term traders can get SHORT
from $18,550 to $16,550 looking for $15,000, $14,000, $11,000 and onto $8000 -
$7000. Only building value above $18,550 and closing above $20,300, on a weekly
basis, cancels this trade. Intermediate-term traders can get LONG in front of $7000.
49

NICKEL LONG-TERM

11/10/15- LME USD 90 Day Forward. Sweet Last Long-term Letter (11/18/14
read below) we advised Long-term traders to get SHORT from $18,000 to $16,500
looking for $16,000, $15,000, $14,000, $11,000/$10,000, and lower. Since our last
Long-term Letter Nickel topped out at $17,200 on Dec. 5th, 2014 (right in the middle
of our sell zone) and then traded all the way down to $9,100 on August 12th of this
year. We set Long-term traders/investors up to SELL at great levels and now they
have been able to take some profit at $16,000, $15,000, $14,000, and $11,000 /
$10,000. Whats next? STAY SHORT remaining positions (should be no more than
one-third of your total) and take remaining profits around current levels ($9,530)
down to the target of the Feb. 2011 bearish curve: $7,000 (right side of picture
directly above). Only building value and closing above $13,800, on a weekly basis,
cancels the rest of this great bearish trade. Long-term traders can get LONG from
$8,500 down to $7,000.
50

11/18/14- LME USD 90 Day Forward. We got stopped out on our long positions
from $17,600/$18,900 (5/13/14 letter, read below) with the monthly close below
$16,100 in October (actual close = $15,780). Whats next? It looks like Nickel is
headed down to the $11,000/$10,000 area and possibly lower. How do long-term
traders get involved in this sell off? GET SHORT in front of the mid-range on the
May 2014 down curve: $18,000 (right side of picture directly above). SELL from
$18,000 to $16,500 looking for $16,000, $15,000, $14,000, $11,000/$10,000, and
lower. Only building value above $18,000 and closing above $21,000 (mid-range on
the Feb. 2011 down curve, middle of picture directly above), on a monthly basis,
cancels this trade.

Legend
Mid-Range:

Support:

Resistance:

Balance Point:

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