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Water use trade-offs: How integrated modelling can help Lukas Drees, Robert Lütkemeier, Stefan Liehr ISOE

Water use trade-offs: How integrated modelling can help

Lukas Drees, Robert Lütkemeier, Stefan Liehr

ISOE – Institute for Social-Ecological Research, Frankfurt/Main

Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Frankfurt/Main

1st Hamburg Workshop on Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate Policy

Hamburg, 10.-11. March 2017

Outline

Outline 1. Cuvelai basin and droughts in Southern Africa 2. Water use trade-offs 3. Integrated modelling

1. Cuvelai basin and droughts in Southern Africa

2. Water use trade-offs

3. Integrated modelling

4. Modelling approach

5. First results

Cuvelai basin in Namibia/Angola Environment  Semi-arid climate  Strong seasonality  High groundwater salinity

Cuvelai basin in Namibia/Angola

Cuvelai basin in Namibia/Angola Environment  Semi-arid climate  Strong seasonality  High groundwater salinity

Environment

Semi-arid climate

Strong seasonality

High groundwater salinity

Society

1.2 mio people (80% rural)

Subsistence economy

Tap water system in Namibia

 Subsistence economy  Tap water system in Namibia Pictures taken by R. Lütkemeier Agent-based Modeling
 Subsistence economy  Tap water system in Namibia Pictures taken by R. Lütkemeier Agent-based Modeling
 Subsistence economy  Tap water system in Namibia Pictures taken by R. Lütkemeier Agent-based Modeling
Pictures taken by R. Lütkemeier
Pictures taken by R. Lütkemeier
Droughts in Southern Africa Pictures taken by R. Lütkemeier Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and

Droughts in Southern Africa

Droughts in Southern Africa Pictures taken by R. Lütkemeier Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate
Droughts in Southern Africa Pictures taken by R. Lütkemeier Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate
Droughts in Southern Africa Pictures taken by R. Lütkemeier Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate
Droughts in Southern Africa Pictures taken by R. Lütkemeier Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate

Pictures taken by R. Lütkemeier

Cuvelai basin: Water sources Pictures taken by R. Lütkemeier Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and

Cuvelai basin: Water sources

Cuvelai basin: Water sources Pictures taken by R. Lütkemeier Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate
Cuvelai basin: Water sources Pictures taken by R. Lütkemeier Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate
Cuvelai basin: Water sources Pictures taken by R. Lütkemeier Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate
Cuvelai basin: Water sources Pictures taken by R. Lütkemeier Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate
Cuvelai basin: Water sources Pictures taken by R. Lütkemeier Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate
Cuvelai basin: Water sources Pictures taken by R. Lütkemeier Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate
Cuvelai basin: Water sources Pictures taken by R. Lütkemeier Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate

Pictures taken by R. Lütkemeier

Water use trade-offs Natural Societal structures & structures & processes processes Agent-based Modeling of

Water use trade-offs

Natural Societal structures & structures & processes processes
Natural
Societal
structures &
structures &
processes
processes
structures & structures & processes processes Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate
structures & structures & processes processes Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate
structures & structures & processes processes Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate
structures & structures & processes processes Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate
Integrated modelling  How to integrate knowledge from/of different • disciplines, • sources, • units,

Integrated modelling

Integrated modelling  How to integrate knowledge from/of different • disciplines, • sources, • units, •

How to integrate knowledge from/of different

disciplines,

sources,

units,

scales and

temporal and spatial resolutions?

How to capture people’s limited/filtered perception of their environment?

How can uncertainty be taken into account?

Bayesian networks  combine graph theory and probability theory • directed acyclic graphical model •

Bayesian networks

combine graph theory and probability theory

directed acyclic graphical model

represents conditional dependencies between a set of variables (Bayesian statistics)

non-parametric method

uncertain knowledge can be explicitly addressed

combination of different types of variables

e.g. empirical data and expert knowledge

social and natural scientific data

and expert knowledge • social and natural scientific data Probability that searching for a job is
and expert knowledge • social and natural scientific data Probability that searching for a job is

Probability that searching for a job is the main motive for migration:

P(job) = 43 %

P(job | favourable conditions) = 27 %

P(job | unfavourable conditions) = 81 %

Drees/Liehr Glob. Environ. Chang. 2015

Integrated modelling methods Bayesian networks  are able to integrate different types of variables 

Integrated modelling methods

Integrated modelling methods Bayesian networks  are able to integrate different types of variables  uncertain

Bayesian networks

Integrated modelling methods Bayesian networks  are able to integrate different types of variables  uncertain

are able to integrate different types of variables

uncertain knowledge is explicitly addressed

non-parametric method

Agent-based models

addressed  non-parametric method Agent-based models  micro-level interactions result in macro-level patterns

micro-level interactions result in macro-level patterns

models of heterogeneous population of agents and their interactions

describe complex systems with non-linearities

But:

neither spatial nor temporal dynamics

Major challenge:

formalisation of behavioural rules?!

Software used for screenshots:

Bayesian Networks: Norsys 2017 Agent-based models: Wilensky 1999

BN

BN Modelling approach Variable Source Size of households Social-empirical surveys ( n = 4 6 0

Modelling approach

BN Modelling approach Variable Source Size of households Social-empirical surveys ( n = 4 6 0
BN Modelling approach Variable Source Size of households Social-empirical surveys ( n = 4 6 0
BN Modelling approach Variable Source Size of households Social-empirical surveys ( n = 4 6 0

Variable

Source

Size of households

Social-empirical surveys (n = 460)

Education

Social-empirical surveys (n = 460)

Neighbours’ behaviour

Model (ABM)

Population density

Census data

Severity of drought

Precipitation data (CHIRPS)

Pipeline network

(Mendelsohn et al. 2013)

ABM Households‘ characteristics Households‘ decisions
ABM
Households‘ characteristics
Households‘ decisions

10

Agent-based Modeling of Environmental Challenges and Climate Policy, L. Drees

First results Model characteristics:  cut-out with approx. 2000 agents/households (spatially explicit  located

First results

First results Model characteristics:  cut-out with approx. 2000 agents/households (spatially explicit  located

Model characteristics:

cut-out with approx. 2000 agents/households (spatially explicit located according to population density, including population growth)

empirical data basis (n=460)

monthly time steps

l/month 140 25,000,000 120 20,000,000 100 15,000,000 80 60 10,000,000 40 5,000,000 20 0 0
l/month
140
25,000,000
120
20,000,000
100
15,000,000
80
60
10,000,000
40
5,000,000
20
0
0
mm
PTA TNE PTA BOT BOR VEN CAN IMW UGT UIW SHW ETD OSH RAW precipitation
PTA
TNE
PTA
BOT
BOR
VEN
CAN
IMW
UGT
UIW
SHW
ETD
OSH
RAW
precipitation
First results l/month 140 7,000,000 120 6,000,000 100 5,000,000 80 4,000,000 60 3,000,000 40 2,000,000

First results

First results l/month 140 7,000,000 120 6,000,000 100 5,000,000 80 4,000,000 60 3,000,000 40 2,000,000 20
l/month 140 7,000,000 120 6,000,000 100 5,000,000 80 4,000,000 60 3,000,000 40 2,000,000 20 1,000,000
l/month
140
7,000,000
120
6,000,000
100
5,000,000
80
4,000,000
60
3,000,000
40
2,000,000
20
1,000,000
0
0
precipitation
PTA
SHW
RAW
mm
Conclusion and Outlook  Modelling approach is able to capture annual variations of water sources

Conclusion and Outlook

Conclusion and Outlook  Modelling approach is able to capture annual variations of water sources 

Modelling approach is able to capture annual variations of water sources

Assess influence of drivers and disentangle ecological and socio-economic drivers

Finalisation and calibration

Compare and validate with other measures (e.g. WaterGAP model)

Thank you for your attention! Lukas Drees, Robert Lütkemeier, Stefan Liehr Research Unit Water Resources

Thank you for your attention!

Lukas Drees, Robert Lütkemeier, Stefan Liehr Research Unit Water Resources and Land Use ISOE – Institute for Social-Ecological Research, Frankfurt/Main Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Frankfurt/Main Contact: drees@isoe.de

References

References and Credits

“ References References and Credits  Drees, L., and Liehr, S. 2015. Using Bayesian belief networks

Drees, L., and Liehr, S. 2015. Using Bayesian belief networks to analyse social-ecological conditions for migration in the Sahel. Global Environmental Change, 35, 323–339. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.09.003

Lütkemeier, R. and Liehr, S. 2015. Impact of drought on the inhabitants of the Cuvelai watershed: A qualitative exploration. In: Andreu, J. et al. (ed.): Drought: Research and Science-Policy Interfacing., Drought: Research and Science-Policy Interfacing Proceedings of the international Conference on Drought: Research an Science-Policy Interfacing, Valencia, Spain 10-13 March 2015. London: Taylor & Francis Group, 41-48

Lütkemeier, R., Stein, L., Drees, L. and Liehr S. Uncertainty of rainfall products: impact on modelling household nutrition from rain-fed farming in Southern Africa. (in preparation)

Niang, I., O.C. Ruppel, M.A. Abdrabo, A. Essel, C. Lennard, J. Padgham, and P. Urquhart, 2014: Africa. In: Climate Change 2014:

Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Barros, V.R., C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1199-1265.

Norsys Software Corp (2017). Netica, https://www.norsys.com/

Mendelsohn, J., Jarvis, A. and Robertson, T., 2013. A profile and atlas of the Cuvelai-Etosha basin. RAISON.

Wilensky, U. (1999). NetLogo. http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/. Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.

Credits (for used icons – all from Noun Project):

“computer model“ created by Aygibe Aya, “cow“ created by misirlou, “creek“ by Dan Hetteix, “dead plant“ created by Gemma Garner, “drinking glass“ created by Luis Prado, “drought“ created by Hayashi Fumihiro, “empty glass“ created by Amanda Wray, “grain“ created by Creative Stall, “integration“ created by Gregor Črešnar, “line graph“ created by Lee, “sowing“ created by Sarah JOY, ”tap water“ created by Francesco Ameglio, “trade-off hands“ created by Alfredo Hernandez, “watering can“ created by Yohann Berger, “well“ created by Yorlmar Campos, “window“ created by artworkbean