Tuesday, July 20, 2010

KBC Technicals Commonwealth & Eurchf

From KBC Market Research Desk - More research on www.kbc.be/dealingroom

NEXT REPORT SHOULD BE ON JULY 22

AUD:(.8712) Reapproached channel top off year high (see graph)

FOREX AUD=,22 (0.8793, 0.8798, 0.8790, 0.8796, +0.0004)

HOURLY CHARTS 0.890
.8860 .8871
0.885

0.880
.8792
0.875

0.870

0.865
.8633 0.860

0.855

0.850

0.845

0.840

0.835

.8315 0.830

0.825

0.820

0.815

0.810
.8083 0.805

0.800
25 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July

Strong rebound retested .8860 and reapproached channel top off year high (see graph).
Support at .8741 (break-up hourly), with next level at .8633 (today’s low?), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at .8619/ .8612 (reaction low hourly/ daily envelope bottom), ahead of .8593/ .8582 (daily Long
Term Moving Average↑/ break-up hourly): tough on 1st attempts.
Resistance area at .8812/ .8814 (weekly envelope top/ today’s high?), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at .8853/ .8859 (weekly Bollinger midline/ daily Downtrendline off year high), ahead of .8871
(July 14 high) and .8883/ .8894 (61.8% year high to .8066/ 61.8% 2009 high to .8066): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

.8741 (see above) .8812/ .8814 (weekly envelope top/ today’s high?)
.8633 (today’s low?) .8853/ .8859 (weekly Bollinger midline/ see above)
.8619/ .8612 (reaction low hourly/ daily envelope bot-
.8871/ .8894 (July 14 high/ 61.8% 2009 high to .8066)
tom)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research
 Tuesday, July 20, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Commonwealth FX

CAD: (1.0503) Reapproached Downtrendline off 1.0854 (see graph)

FOREX CAD=,22 (1.0516, 1.0518, 1.0499, 1.0505, -0.0009) 1.090

1.085

1.080

1.075

1.070
1.0680
1.0678
1.065

1.060

1.055

1.050

1.045

1.040

1.035

1.030

1.0276 1.025

1.020

1.015

1.0138 1.010

25 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July

Drop from 1.0678 tested the redrawn daily Uptrendline off year low (1.0352 today), with rebound having reap-
proached Downtrendline off 1.0854 (see graph).
1st Support area at 1.0480/ 0470 (break-up hourly/ weekly Short Term Moving Average↑), with next levels at
1.0463 (daily Bollinger midline + daily Short Term Moving Average↑), ahead of 1.0430 (weekly envelope bot-
tom + weekly Medium Term Moving Average↑), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.0414/ .0410 (broken 200 Day Moving Average→/ reaction lows hourly): tough on 1st
attempts.

1st Resistance area at 1.0565 (daily projection band top), with next levels at 1.0580 (last week high + current
week high), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.0638 (daily envelope top), ahead of 1.0678/ .0680 (see graph/ June 07 high): tough
on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

1.0480/ .0470 (see above/ weekly ST MA↑) 1.0565 (see above)

1.0463/ .0430 (daily Bollinger midline + see above/

1.0580 (last week high + current week high)
weekly envelope bottom + see above)

1.0410/ .0398 (see above/ broken weekly LT MA↓) 1.0638/ .0680 (daily envelope top/ June 07 high)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 2
 Tuesday, July 20, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Commonwealth FX

GBP: (1.5231) New recovery high on move back above Flag off year low (see graph)
FOREX GBP=,22 (1.5274, 1.5275, 1.5219, 1.5229, -0.0045)
1.5473 1.550
1.545
1.540
1.535
1.530
1.525
1.5230 1.520
1.515
1.510
1.505
1.500
1.495
1.4949
1.490
1.485
1.4771 1.480
1.475
1.470
1.4688 1.465
1.460
1.455
1.450
1.445
1.440
1.435
1.4346 1.430
1.425
25 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July

New recovery high on move back above the Flag off year low (see graph: equivalent on daily charts has its
broken top at 1.5175 today): Support at 1.5203/ .5198 (current week low/ daily Medium Term Moving Aver-
age↑), with next levels at 1.5186/ .5175 (reaction low hourly/ see above), ahead of 1.5159 (daily + weekly en-
velope bottoms), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.5140/ .5120 (daily Bollinger midline/ break-up hourly): tough on 1st attempts.

Resistance area at 1.5297/ .5309 (broken daily Short Term Moving Average↑/ today’s high?), ahead of 1.5342/
.5351 (daily envelope top/ current week high), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.5390/ .5397 (daily Bollinger top/ reaction high hourly): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

1.5203/ .5198 (see above/ daily MT MA↑) 1.5297/ .5309 (see above)

1.5186/ .5175 (reaction low hourly/ see above) 1.5342/ .5351 (daily envelope top/ current week high)

1.5159/ .5140 (daily + weekly envelope bottoms/

1.5390/ .5397 (daily Bollinger top/ see above)
daily Bollinger midline)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 3
 Tuesday, July 20, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Commonwealth FX

EUR/CHF: (1.3654) In Flag off low (see graph)

1.4589 FOREX EURCHF=EBS (1.3661, 1.3666, 1.3650, 1.3653, -0.0007)

1.455
1.450
1.445
1.440
1.435
1.430
1.425
1.420
1.415
1.410
1.4041 1.405
1.400
1.395
1.390
1.385
1.380
1.375
1.3735 1.370
1.365
1.360
1.355
1.350
1.3434
1.345
1.340
1.335
1.330
1.325
1.320
1.315
1.310
1.3073 1.305
1.300

21 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July

Below the long term daily channel bottom off 2007 high (1.3747 today).

Rebound puts the pair in Flag off low and above 1.3434 (see graph: 1st target has been met).
Resistance area at 1.3675 (today’s + current recovery high off new low?), ahead of 1.3695/ .3697 (daily Flag
top off low/ daily Bollinger top + modified daily Standard Error band top + daily projection band top), where
pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.3738/ .3747 (daily envelope top/ see above): tough on 1st attempts.

Support area at 1.3638 (today’s low?), with next levels at 1.3608/ .3600 (daily envelope bottom/ reaction low
hourly) and 1.3589 (broken daily Long Term Moving Average↓), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.3554 (daily Short Term Moving Average↑), ahead of 1.3498 (daily Flag bottom off
low): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

1.3638 (see above) 1.3675 (see above)

1.3608/ .3600 (daily envelope bottom/ reaction low 1.3695/ .3697 (see above/ daily Bollinger top + see
hourly ) above)

1.3589/ .3554 (see above/ daily ST MA↑) 1.3738/ .3747 (daily envelope top/ see above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 4
 Tuesday, July 20, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Commonwealth FX

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held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a
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KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 5