DETECTION AT THE EDGE

PROGRESSIVE THREAT ASSESSMENT

FOUNDATIONAL RESEARCH

1. Research Indicates that targeted violence aggressors follow a path to violence and behave in an
discernable pattern of movement toward their goals.
2. In a high percentage of cases, violent aggressors informed someone of their plans.
1. In all cases, recognizable leakage occurred regarding the impending attack.
3. In many averted cases, individuals with information passed this information on to responsible parties
and knocked the aggressor off the path to violence.

Making Prevention a Reality: National Center for the Analysis of Violent Crime
 THE MYTH OF THE SNAPPING HUMAN

Attack
Breach
Preparation
Planning
Research
Ideation

Leakage
Grievance Calhoun and Weston (2003)
TIMELINE OF TARGETED VIOLENCE
Prevention Recovery

Response
TIMELINE OF TARGETED VIOLENCE
Prevention Recovery

Response
 Prevention

Deter Detect Delay Deny

Idaho Office of School Safety and Security

 Prevention

Deter Detect Delay Deny

Normative Behavior
WHO?
WHAT?
WHEN?
WHERE?
CIRCLES OF INTIMACY
Family/Friends

Peers

Non-Peers

Acquaintance

Stranger
CIRCLES OF INTIMACY
 MASHUP

Family/ Peers Non-peers Acquaintance Stranger

Friends Necessary Regular Contact Necessary Regular Contact Irregular Contact Incidental Contact
 Case Study Exercise
MASHUP

Family/ Peers Non-peers Acquaintance Stranger

Friends Necessary Regular Contact Necessary Regular Contact Irregular Contact Incidental Contact
 ISLANDS OF INFORMATION
Landowners
Work
Social Media

Home Law
School

Clerical
Business C. Clubs
Clinical
 CONTACT AND PIPELINES
Landowners
Work
Social Media

Home Law
School

Clerical
Business C. Clubs
Clinical
MIDSTREAM REVIEW

1. Research Indicates that targeted violence aggressors follow a path to violence and behave in an
discernable pattern of movement toward their goals.
2. In a high percentage of cases, violent aggressors informed someone of their plans.
1. In all cases, recognizable leakage occurred regarding the impending attack.
3. History demonstrates when leakage was observed and communicated to responsible parties aggressors
were knocked off the path to violence.
37 INCIDENTS AND 198 BYSTANDERS

Prior Knowledge of School Based Violence (2008)

 CULTIVATING UPSTANDERS
Barriers Strategies

Ridicule- being socially diminished for

perceived over-reaction

Reputation- being labeled a snitch

Reservations- distrust that the

information will be acted on or acted on
in good faith
Recommendations- from a trusted adult

Reprisal- revenge
Contemporary threat management: a practical guide for identifying, assessing, and managing individuals of violent intent
Frederick Calhoun-Stephen Weston - Specialized Training Services - 2003

RESEARCH RESOURCES
Making Prevention a Reality: Identifying, Assessing, and Managing the Threat of Targeted Attacks
Contemporary threat management: a practical guide for identifying, assessing, and managing
individuals of violent intent. Frederick Calhoun-Stephen Weston - Specialized Training Services 2003
The Gift of Fear, Gavin De Becker (1997)
The Handbook for Campus Threat Assessment and Management Teams. Deisinger, Ranazzo, ONeil &
Savage
Threat Assessment in Schools. Fein, Vossekuil, Pollack, Borum, Modzeleski & Reddy
Prior Knowledge of School Based Violence: Information Students may learn to prevent a targeted attack.
Pollack, Modzeleski, & Rooney
Safe School Initiative
TRIPWIRE TRAINING
Indicators of suicidality
Signs of research, planning and preparation that are contextually inappropriate
Acquisition of weapons/protective gear
New interest in explosives
Contextually inappropriate fascination with previous school shooters
Drastic changes in appearance
Withdrawal from life patterns
Cessation of medications
Sudden onset of reckless behaviors (financial, sexual, drugs etc)
Writing statements or manifestos
Recent and significant loss or humiliation (real or perceived)
Experimental aggression
Evidence of target surveillance/probing
Threat communication
Social Media habitual change