editorial

Cleaner urban air tomorrow?

Air pollution in large cities remains a persistent public health problem. Adapting air quality forecasts for
use by decision makers could help mitigate severe pollution events.

Beijing may be the poster child for air capability to provide cities with a reliable
pollution, but Delhi, where air pollution prediction tool.
causes up to 30,000 premature deaths Near-term forecasts have long been
annually, has earned the dubious distinction used to alert citizens about poor air quality,
of being the most polluted megacity in the and forecasts are becoming more reliable
world1. Late last year, Delhis already bad in the 2448 hour range. Some systems go
air quality became worse. Emissions from further: in Barcelona, the CALIOPE system
coal-fired power plants or vehicles were provides forecasts that incorporate different
not responsible; instead it was fireworks set emission reduction scenarios such as vehicle
off to celebrate the annual Hindu festival bans (http://www.bsc.es/caliope/es). As
of Diwali. The Diwali fireworks are known such, CALIOPE and systems like it have the
to cause large increases in particulate necessary functionality to provide decision
matter and metal in the atmosphere2,3. makers with the information they need take
Last year, the pollution they caused preventive action.
was compounded by emissions from Preventive restrictions could prove
BCM PHOTOGRAPHY / ALAMY STOCK PHOTO

agricultural biomass burning. Visibility was politically tricky. After all, if short-term
extremely poor, schools were closed for restrictions in emissions succeed in
days and hospitals experienced a flood of mitigating a severe air pollution event, there
respiratory-related visits. is not much a politician can point towards
Severe urban air pollution is not limited to explain how much worse it could have
to developing economies. Approximately been. As forecast uncertainty rises with lead
9,500 London residents die prematurely each time, imposing emission restrictions might
year as a consequence of air pollution4. In only be politically palatable in the very short
December, Paris experienced its worst air term, which could reduce their effectiveness
pollution event of the decade. Widespread for mitigating pollution. But if a forecast
barbecuing during football matches has is wrong, cities pay a real economic and
been blamed for 25% of air quality alerts in social cost for imposing early preventive
Santiago, Chile over the past couple of years. New Years Eve fireworks in Munich contribute to restrictions without a benefit. Certainly
And this years New Years Eve fireworks air pollution in excess of health guidelines. lessons can be learned from the history of
were associated with doubled particulate decision making in cities faced by threats
matter concentrations in Munich and other from hurricanes: those cities must decide
German cities, many times in excess of but because atmospheric inversions that trap whether and when to evacuate a city based
recommended levels. pollution in the city are more common at on forecasts, and those decisions have a host
Cities such as Paris, Mexico City, Madrid that time of year. of conflicting political, social, economic and
and Athens have commited to banning A more nimble, dynamic approach than public health implications.
diesel vehicles entirely by 2025, and some blanket emissions reductions is therefore To be successful, forecast-driven
are instituting partial restrictions in the likely to be more efficient in mitigating regulatory policy needs a government
meantime (http://urbanaccessregulations.eu/). severe instances of poor air quality. Cities willing to risk the potential costs of
More flexible car bans have been adopted have shown that they can respond quickly restrictive actions and reliable forecasts that
elsewhere: Beijing famously banned half of to pollution once it is underway. During are designed specifically as decision-making
all vehicles from driving in the city during the December smog, Paris banned half tools, with appropriate uncertainty alerts.
the 2008 Olympics; now 20% are banned of all vehicles from the city for three days Developing effective systems will probably
each day in a policy similar to the one that straight and made public transport free. require considerable collaboration between
Mexico City instituted in 1989, which failed Madrid instituted a similar ban for the air quality modellers, decision makers
to improve air quality 6. first time in its history when it was hit and policy and public health experts. But
Attempts to address part of the air with heavy pollution a few weeks later. it is an effort that could reap substantial
quality problem by reducing overall But these policies are all reactive. With public benefits.
emissions do not, however, address the improvements in modelling, we may soon
role of meteorology. Ultimately, the be reaching the point when air quality can References
1. Global Urban Ambient Air Pollution Database (World Health
weather can determine whether or not air be forecast sufficiently well to prevent severe Organization, 2016); http://go.nature.com/2j16ahw
pollution becomes severe; it does not just pollution before it kicks in. Simulations 2. Mandal, P. etal. Environ. Monit. Assess. 184, 209215 (2011).
matter where emissions occur, but when of near-term emissions, weather and 3. Kulshrestha, U.C. etal. Atmos. Environ. 38, 44214425 (2004).
they occur. In Beijing, winter is the season atmospheric chemistry that assimilate data 4. Walton, H. etal. Understanding the Health Impacts of Air Pollution
in London (Kings College London, 2015).
for pollution not only because there are from observation networks to correct for 5. Schmidt, C.W. Environ. Health Persp. 124, A19A22 (2016).
increased emissions associated with heating, model bias are not far off from having the 6. Davis, L.W.J.Polit. Econ. 116, 3881 (2008).

NATURE GEOSCIENCE | VOL 10 | FEBRUARY 2017 | www.nature.com/naturegeoscience 69

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