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Thursday, July 22, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX


From KBC Market Research Desk - More research on www.kbc.be/dealingroom

EUR/PLN: (4.1040)

FOREX EURPLN=D2, (4.1050, 4.1050, 4.1043, 4.1043, -0.0027)


4.2400 HOURLY CHARTS

4.2060
4.2050
4.20
4.1790

4.1550
4.15

4.10

4.05
4.0405

4.0120 4.00

3.9400 3.95

3.90

3.85

2010 May June July


Still above 200 Day Moving Average↓ (4.0526 today) but currently back below the daily Uptrendline off
year low (4.1137 today).
Resistance at 4.1310 (daily envelope top), with next levels at 4.1380 (daily Downtrendline off 4.2400),
ahead of 4.1550/ .1562 (current week high + modified daily Standard Error band top/ daily projection
band top), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 4.1782/ .1790 (daily Bollinger top/ June 29 high): tough on 1st attempts.
Support at 4.0932/ .0911 (current week low/ daily envelope bottom), with next levels at 4.0868/.0840 (reac-
tion low hourly/ break-up hourly): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

4.0932/ .0911 (current week low/ daily envelope


4.1310/ .1380 (daily envelope top/ see above)
bottom)
4.1550/ .1562 (current week high + see above/ daiy projec-
4.0868/ .0840 (reaction low hourly/ break-up hourly)
tion band top)
4.0700/ .0662 (reaction low hourly/ modified Alpha 4.1782/ .1790 (daily Bollinger top/June 29 high)
Beta trend bottom)
KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research
Thursday, July 22, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

EUR/HUF: (284.80) New recovery high (see graph)

FOREX EURHUF=D2, (285.050, 285.050, 284.160, 284.890, -0.210) 294


292.10 293
292
290.55
291
290
289
288
287
285.20 286
285
284
283
282
281
280
279
278
277
276
275
275.50
274
273
272
271.15
271
270
269
268
267
266
265
264
263
262.05 262
261
260

2010 May June July

Pair hit a new recovery high off year low on break of IMF talks: currently back below the Uptrendline off
262.05 (see graph): Support at 283.66/ .50 (current week low/ gap daily + daily Bollinger midline), where
pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 282.43 (daily Medium + Long Term Moving Averages→), ahead of 280.51/ .19 (break-
up daily/ 38.2% 260.93 to 292.10): tough on 1st attempts.

Resistance at 287.15 (reaction high hourly), with next levels at 288.40/ .76 (breakdown hourly/ daily envelope
top), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 289.77/ 290.38 (modified daily Standard error band top/ daily Bollinger top): tough on 1st
attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE
283.66/ .50 (current week low/ daily Bollinger midline +
287.15 (see above)
see above)

282.43 (see above) 288.40/ .76 (see above/ daily envelope top)

280.51/ .19 (break-up daily/ 38.2% 260.93 to 292.10) 289.77/ 290.38 (see above/ daily Bollinger top)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 2
Thursday, July 22, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

EUR/RUB: (39.0200) New recovery high off year low

FOREX EURRUB=,22 (39.0390, 39.0480, 39.0000, 39.0250, +0.0025)


39.6470
39.7
39.6
39.5
39.4
39.2796 39.3
39.2
39.1
39.0
38.9
38.8
38.7
38.6
38.6200 38.5
38.4
38.3
38.2
38.1
38.0
37.9
37.8975
37.8
37.7
37.6
37.5

37.4455 37.4
37.3
21 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July

New recovery high off year low (see graph).


1st Support at 38.8882/ .8700 (modified daily Standard Error band bottom/ reaction low hourly), with next levels at
38.8150/ .7600 (idem), ahead of 38.7315/ .7170 (modified Alpha Beta trend bottom/ break-up hourly), where pause
favored.
If wrong, next levels at 38.6200/ .6156 (see graph/ daily Long Term Moving Average↑), ahead of 38.5906 (redrawn
daily Uptrendline off year low): tough on 1st attempts.

Resistance at 39.0950/ .1178 (breakdown hourly/ daily envelope top + daily Medium Term Moving Average↓),
with next levels at 39.1850/ 1900 (breakdown hourly/ daily) and 39.2209 (daily Short Term Moving Average↓),
where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 39.5805 (modified daily Alpha Beta trend top), ahead of 39.6470/ .6765 (current new
recovery high off year low/ April high): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

38.8882/ .8700 (see above) 39.0950/ .1178 (see above/ daily envelope top + see above)

38.8150/ .7600 (reaction lows hourly) 39.1850/ .1900 (breakdown hourly/ daily)

38.7315/ .7170 (see above/ break-up hourly) 39.2209/ .5805 (daily ST MA↓/ see above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 3
Thursday, July 22, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX


EUR/CZK: (25.1800) Below 25.4200 and testing channel bottom off 26.3000 (see graph)

FOREX EURCZK=D2, (25.215, 25.230, 25.175, 25.175, -0.043)


26.35
26.3000
26.30
26.25
26.20
26.15
26.0800
26.10
26.05
26.00
25.95
25.90
25.85
25.80
25.75
25.70
25.65
25.60
25.55
25.50
25.45
25.4200 25.40
25.35
25.30
25.3000 25.25
25.20
25.15
25.10
25.05
25.00
25.0150
24.95

2010 May June July

Below 25.4200 (see graph) and below weekly Uptrendline off low (25.4830).
Testing channel bottom off 26.3000 (see graph and daily Uptrendline off Sept 2009 low (25.1710 today):
Support at 25.1330/ .1200 (daily Bollinger bottom/ modified daily Alpha beta trend bottom bottom), where
pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 25.1090 (weekly Bollinger bottom) and 25.0150 (year low) and 24.9750 (Sept 2009
low): tough on 1st attempts.

Resistance area at 25.3300 (daily envelope top), with next levels at 25.3880 (daily Medium Term Moving Av-
erage↓), ahead of 25.4000/ .4200 (reaction high hourly/ breakdown hourly): ideal area to stay below to keep
current mood on CZK.
If unable to cap, next levels at 25.4950/ .5220 (daily projection band top + daily Bollinger midline/ current week
high), where pause favored.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

25.1330/ .1200 (daily Bollinger bottom/ see above) 25.3300 (daily envelope top)

25.1090 (weekly Bollinger bottom/ year low) 25.3880 (daily MT MA↓)

25.0150/ 24.9750 (year low + daily Starc bottom/


25.4000/ .4200 (see above/ breakdown hourly)
Sept 2009 low)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 4
Thursday, July 22, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

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KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 5