Thursday, July 22, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

From KBC Market Research Desk - More research on www.kbc.be/dealingroom

EUR/USD: (1.2774) New recovery high on move above 1.2454 has approached last target at
1.3032.

FOREX EUR=EBS,39 (1.2772, 1.2776, 1.2769, 1.2774, +0.0001)

1.3029
HOURLY CHARTS 1.305
1.300
1.295
1.290
1.285
1.280
1.275
1.2723
1.270
1.265
1.260
1.255
1.2454 1.250
1.245
1.240
1.235
1.230
1.225
1.220
1.215
1.210
1.2110
1.205
1.200
1.195
1.190

1.1876 1.185
1.180
26 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July
New recovery high on move above 1.2454 (see graph) has approached last target of pattern (1.3032).
Back in channel off 1.1876 (see graph) after having failed to regain the daily Flag off year low.
Support area at 1.2758/ .2732 (daily Medium Term Moving Average↑/ current reaction low off 1.3029), where
pause favored.
If unable to hold, next levels at 1.2717/ .2708 (reaction lows hourly), ahead of 1.2691 (modified daily Alpha Beta
band bottom) and 1.2676/ .2648 (daily envelope bottom/ weekly Short Term Moving Average↑): tough on 1st at-
tempts..
Resistance at 1.2824/ .2831 (reaction highs hourly), with next levels at 1.2849/ .2856 (daily envelope top/ daily
Short Term Moving Average↓), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.2914/ .2923 (reaction lows hourly), ahead of 1.2951 (breakdown hourly): tough on 1st
tests, amid overextended readings.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE
1.2758/ .2732 (daily MT MA↑/ see above) 1.2824/ .2831 (see above)
1.2717/ .2708 (see above) 1.2849/ .2856 (daily envelope top / see above)

1.2691/ 2676 (see above/ daily envelope bottom) 1.2923/ .2951 (see above/ breakdown hourly)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research
 Thursday, July 22, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

USD/JPY: (86.46) New year low and currently back below channel off 94.99 (see graph)
FOREX JPY=EBS,39 (86.49, 86.49, 86.45, 86.47, -0.03)
92.89
93.0

92.5

92.0

91.5

91.0

90.5

90.0

89.5
89.15

89.0

88.5

88.0

87.5

87.0
86.96
86.5

86.27
86.0

26 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July

New year low scored on move below daily Uptrendline off 2009 low (90.49 today) and currently back below
channel off 94.99 (see graph).
Resistance at .86.98 (today’s high?), with next levels at 87.42/ 87.58 (daily envelope top/ current week high),
ahead of 87.66/ .77 (daily Medium Term Moving Average↓/ weekly Short Term Moving Average↓), where pause
favored.
If wrong, next levels at 87.90 (daily Bollinger midline), ahead of 88.29 (reaction high hourly): tough on 1st at-
tempts.

1st support area at 86.45/ 86.41 (current week low + daily envelope bottom/ weekly Bollinger bottom), ahead of
86.27 (daily Bollinger bottom + current new year low), where pause favored.
If wrong, next level at 86.06 (monthly daily envelope bottom), ahead of 85.76 (modified daily Standard Error
band bottom) and 85.43/ 85.31 (broken weekly channel top off Aug 2008/ daily Starc bottom): tough on 1st at-
tempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

86.45/ .41 (see above/ weekly Bollinger bottom) 86.98(see above)

86.27 (current week low + daily Bollinger bottom) 87.42/ 87.58 (daily envelope top/ current week high)

86.06/ 85.76 (monthly envelope bottom/ see above) 87.66/ .77 (daily MT MA↓/ weekly ST MA↓)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 2
 Thursday, July 22, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

EUR/GBP: (.8410) Rebound off new year low tested channel top off .8810 (see graph)
FOREX EURGBP=,22 (0.8411, 0.8417, 0.8408, 0.8408, -0.0003)
.8532

0.850

0.845

.8382 0.840

0.835

.8317 0.830

0.825

.8210 0.820

.8180
0.815

0.810

.8067 0.805

27 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July

Rebound off new year low broke daily channel off .9130 (broken top at .8317 today), with drop from .8532 havin-
retested .8382 (see graph).

1st Support area at .8390 (daily Medium Term Moving Average↑), with next level at .8376/ .8370 (current week
low/ daily envelope bottom), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at .8357/ .8354 (reaction low hourly/ 38.2% .8067 to .8532): tough on 1st attempts.
1st Resistance area at .8440 (reaction high hourly + broken daily Short Term Moving Average↑),with next levels
at .8470/ .8478 (daily envelope top/ reaction high hourly), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at .8490 (breakdown hourly), ahead of .8532 (current recovery high off year low): tough on
1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

.8390 (daily MT MA↑) .8440 (see above)

.8376/ .8370 (see above/ daily envelope bottom) .8470/ .8478 (daily envelope top/ see above)

.8357/ .8354 (see above/ 38.2% .8067 to .8532) .8490/ .8532 (breakdown hourly/ see above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 3
 Thursday, July 22, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

EUR/JPY: (110.45) Rebound off new year low reapproached 113.43 (see graph)
FOREX EURJPY=EBS (110.47, 110.52, 110.40, 110.47, -0.02)
114.5

114.0

113.43
113.5

113.0

112.5

112.0

111.5

110.90 111.0

110.5

110.0

109.5

109.0

108.5

108.0

108.06 107.5

107.30 107.0

25 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July

Rebound off new year low reapproached 113.43, with drop testing Flag bottom (see graph): Resistance at
111.06 (today’s high? + daily Long Term Moving Average→), with next levels at 111.86/ .95 (daily envelope top
+ broken daily Medium Term Moving Average↑/ reaction high hourly) and 112.59 (idem), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 113.40/ .43 (July 15 high// June 21 high + neckline daily Double bottom): tough on 1st
attempts

1st Support area at 110.37 (today’s + current week low? + modified daily Standard error band bottom), ahead of

110.04/ 109.91 (daily/ weekly envelope bottoms), where pause favored.

If wrong, next levels at 119.82 (modified Alpha Beta trend bottom), ahead of 109.14 (July 06 low): tough on 1st

tests.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

110.37 (see above) 111.06 (see above)

111.86/ .95 (see above + daily envelope top/ see
110.04/ 109.91 (daily/ weekly envelope bottoms)
above)

109.82/ .14 (see above/ July 06 low) 112.59/ 113.43 (reaction high hourly/ see above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 4
 Thursday, July 22, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

Brussels Research (KBC) Global Sales Force

Piet Lammens +32 2 417 59 41
Peter Wuyts +32 2 417 32 35 Brussels
Didier Hanesse +32 2 417 59 43 Corporate Desk +32 2 417 45 82
Commercial Desk +32 2 417 53 23
Joke Mertens +32 2 417 30 59 Institutional Desk +32 2 417 46 25
Dublin Research (IIB)
Austin Hughes +353 1 6646892 London +44 207 256 4848
Prague Research (CSOB) Frankfurt +49 69 756 19372
Jan Cermak +420 2 6135 3578 Paris +33 153 89 83 15
Zdenek Safka +420 2 6135 3570 New York +1 212 541 06 97
Jan Bures +420 2 6135 3574 Singapore +65 533 34 10
Bratislava Research (CSOB)
Marek Gabris +421 2 5966 8400 Prague +420 2 6135 3535
Silvia Cechovicova +421 2 5966 8405 Bratislava. +421 2 5966 8436
Warsaw Research (Kredytbank) Budapest +36 1 328 99 63
Piotr Radzewicz +48 22 6345 946 Warsaw +48 22 634 5210
Budapest Research (K&H)
Gyorgy Barcza +36 1 328 99 89
Our reports are also available on: www.kbc.be/dealingroom
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be
held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a
recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the
accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 5