Treatment of Uncertainty By David Admiraal, University of Nebraska-Lincoln Uncertainty estimates yield information about limitations of the accuracy of experimental results, Errors are experimental mistakes than can be eliminated with care. Uncertainty cannot be eliminated - itis due to the inaccuracies of the methods and devices used to carry out the experiments. The best estimate of inaccuracy is called uncertainty or measurement uncertainty. Uncertainty is most easily defined by example: If a tape measure has gradations of mm it cannot be used to measure with accuracy of better than 1 mm. Thus, the uncertainty of any measurement made with the tape is 1 mm. Relative uncertainty is the ratio of the uncertainty and the actual measurement. For example, if the tape measure is used to measure a distance of 10 em, the relative uncertainty is 1 mm/100 mm = 0,01 (or 1 %). Thus, if the uncertainty is independent of measurement size, larger ‘measurements have smaller relative uncertainty ‘Another example: I have a pressure transducer that is accurate to within 1 % of the full-scale measurement (Full scale is the maximum pressure that the device is capable of measuring). ‘Thus, if the full-scale measurement is 100 psi, the uncertainty is 1 psi. A measurement of 10 psi will have a relative uncertainty of 0.10 (or 10 %). Sometimes measurement uncertainty is known a priori (ahead of time), but sometis not. Unknown uncertainties can be estimated from repeated measurements or assumptions. For example, in my thesis work, the measurement uncertainty of velocity measurements taken with an Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter (ADV) was unknown; so a relative uncertainty of five percent ‘was chosen based on comparisons between ADV readings and Pitot tube measurements. When using curve fits of measured data to estimate uncertainty, most sources define uncertainty as equivalent to one standard deviation of the scatter of the data about the curve. Propagation of error by formulas that combine multiple measurements ‘Measurement uncertainties are treated as standard errors and can be combined using the method described by Lyon (1970). Lyon defines a function u as U=F OK, Xa. Xn) a, where x; through x, represent n independent measured variables, and fis any function. If S, is the measurement uncertainty of u, then 2 2. Fait (2s.)-(2s. +-+(2s,] 2) expt) earn? ox, where S,, through S,__are measurement uncertainties of x; through x, respectively.Example 1. I want to measure discharge, Q, but I also want to know the accuracy of the ‘measurement. Discharge is the product of velocity and cross sectional area (Q = VA, or Q= V#L*H). How can the uncertainties of V, L, and H be combined to get the uncertainty of Q? Using Equation 1: Q=f(V, L, H) GB) Using Equation 2: S, 2 Where So ,Sy, $1, and Sy are the measurement uncertainties of Q, V, L, and H, respectively. ‘The first term on the right hand side is: @) Qa a" av 6) s Likewise: 2s, - Fe © 2. LoS eo i 0 woe Oy ” Introducing Equations 5, 6, and 7 into Equation 4, yields: [os}-(e8)-Coa)] ° » 3{3)-0-G)] ; Equation 9 gives the relative uncertainty of Q in terms of the relative uncertainties of V, L, and H. So if I know that V has a relative uncertainty of 5 %, L has a relative uncertainty of 1 %, and H has a relative uncertainty of 2 %, the relative uncertainty of Q is: 2 05) + (0.01 + (0.02)']” =.055 or 5.5% Example 2. Discharge through a hole in a tank is given by Equation 10. Qis given as a function of the discharge coefficient, Cp, the area of the hole, Ao, the gravitational constant, g, and the head, Hy. Find the relative uncertainty of Q by combining the relative uncertainties of all of the variables in the equation, This example is more complex than the previous one, but it demonstrates how uncertainties propagate through variables raised to powers. Q=CyAcy2eHy (10) Using Equation 2, the uncertainty of Q is then given by aly Jo(eis}-ee8) eee)6. _ACyAry/ 28M) 1 Note: s,, = =CyAgy2 Se os tana GH, ot CoAWN 28> Ta fm The relative uncertainty of Q is s(S)-Q)-) Ca One final note: constants such as g and Cp are often given as exact values. When this is done, the relative uncertainty of these constants is assumed to be negligible. Lyon, A.J. (1970) Dealing With Data, Pergamon Press Ltd., Oxford Example of Error Analysis The use of Error analysis can be demonstrated in detail with the Garcia-Parker entrainment parameter, Z,. The entrainment parameter is given by Donel ca SV + (200358) +{2.03°¢) +(-z.08 R g And the relative uncertainty of Zu is given by 2 2 Z |4lan) 4he Vs By, ‘The relative uncertainty of Z, can be determined by introducing the relative uncertainties of each of the measured variables into this last equation.Combining Additive Errors Example — Say that I have a tape measure that is only 50 meters long and I need it to measure something that is 65 meters long. I will need to take two measurements and combine them. ‘What is the total measurement uncertainty associated with the two measurements? Solution: m=m, +m, ay where m is the total length, and m, and m2 are the two measurements. Assume S), S2, and Sm are the measurement uncertainties associated with m,, m2, and m, respectively. To get measurement uncertainty, use the formula given in lab 1: [esHestsJ) 0 For the current case, (25)-(2s)] ‘ =[s,y +@,y]” 8) Always start with equation (2), and work your way through it. Notice that when we have a formula that involves addition or subtraction, we need to combine measurement uncertainties... for multiplication and division it was easier to combine relative uncertainties. Back to the example: if my measurement uncertainty were 0.01 m for the first measurement and 0.02 for the second measurement I would get a total measurement uncertainty of: s, = [0.017 +(0.02)"}” = 0.022 m Do you know what the relative uncertainty would be in this ease? Sim = 0.022/65 = 0.03 %