Aaron Weyburn

Skittles Project part 1

Math 1040
Elizabeth Jones

Rainbows Make Mouths Happy

Introduction
Skittles make me happy, especially the purple ones. Have you ever
wondered how many skittles are in a package? Or how many skittles of your
favorite flavor are in a package? All of these questions and more can be
answered using statistics. Each student in our statistics class purchased one
2.17-ounce bag of Original Skittles and record the following data mine is in
the chart below:
Number of Number of Number of Number of Number of
red orange yellow green purple
candies candies candies candies candies
15 11 15 11 10

Each student submitted their data to our instructor who compiled the data,
see Class results table. We used the compiled data to find out all kinds of
information about the average 2.17-ounce bag of original Skittles.

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Aaron Weyburn
Skittles Project part 1
Math 1040
Elizabeth Jones

Pie chart of class total results

Class rainbow

red
497 513
orange
yellow
green
purple
491 496

518

Pareto chart class total results

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Aaron Weyburn
Skittles Project part 1
Math 1040
Elizabeth Jones

When you pull the first skittle out of the bag it is most likely going to be
yellow and least likely to be green. However, when looking at the
percentages for our total class data the difference between the percentage
of yellow and green skittles is only 1.073%. So, the company really does try
to keep a good balance between the flavors in every bag. This is what I
expected. My data of course didnt mirror the class percentages. My yellow
and red were the same percent of the candy at 24.194% each, followed by
orange and green with the percentage of 17.742% each and purple with
16.129%. The difference between the my highest and lowest percentage was
8.065%. For a purple lover, I just picked the wrong bag. The percentages of
my bag were not as close to the factory desired 20% per color/bag as the
class data, but that is expected.

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Aaron Weyburn
Skittles Project part 1
Math 1040
Elizabeth Jones

Results from my bag of Skittles

Orang Total in
Red e Yellow Green Purple Bag
15 11 15 11 10 62
24.19 17.74 24.19 17.74 16.12
4% 2% 4% 2% 9% 100%

Class results
Orang Total in
Red e Yellow Green Purple Bag
12 9 10 11 13 55
8 13 13 13 18 65
15 11 15 11 10 62
18 11 17 8 10 64
15 16 10 10 11 62
12 13 15 13 10 63
9 13 15 13 9 59
16 7 12 16 11 62
15 7 11 17 11 61
10 18 13 6 13 60
12 13 10 11 13 59
13 11 4 16 18 62
13 7 14 15 11 60
11 18 18 5 13 65
9 12 17 14 10 62
9 14 12 10 17 62
13 7 11 13 10 54
12 16 17 9 6 60
12 12 9 10 17 60
17 12 15 1 10 55
17 13 8 8 15 61
12 10 12 13 13 60
9 13 17 13 7 59
8 13 14 13 12 60
16 8 9 15 8 56
10 9 17 17 6 59
17 16 4 13 11 61
10 12 8 14 9 53
10 12 21 10 8 61

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Aaron Weyburn
Skittles Project part 1
Math 1040
Elizabeth Jones

12 9 11 12 10 54
20 15 6 14 8 63
13 10 18 12 12 65
9 7 10 16 22 64
8 16 11 8 11 54
9 14 8 18 10 59
9 10 19 8 17 63
13 18 8 12 11 62
16 7 15 9 15 62
12 9 15 7 12 55
10 14 7 10 14 55
13 13 8 12 13 59
9 8 14 15 12 58
Totals
:
513 496 518 491 497 2515
20.39 19.72 20.59 19.52 19.76 100.00
8% 2% 6% 3% 1% 0%

Using the total number of candies in each bag in the class sample, calculate
the:
Mean=59.9
standard deviation of sample=3.32
5-number summary
Minimum value=53.0
First quartile=58.8
Median=60.0
Third quartile=62.0
Maximum value=65.0
Number of candies in my bag=62
Number of bags in the class sample=42

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Aaron Weyburn
Skittles Project part 1
Math 1040
Elizabeth Jones

frequency histogram

boxplot

(Both histogram and boxplot done most easily in StatCrunch) Your graphics
must have descriptive titles and be appropriately labeled.

The shape of the distribution resembles a bell curve. Around 16 bags had 59-
62 pieces of skittles candy the left margin (7) between 53-56 and the right
margin (3) between 65-68. The graph reflects what was expected based on
the project results.
Reflection

Categorical variables can be put into a countable number of categories or

different groups. Categorical data may or may not have some logical order.
Examples are hair color, or the brand of tennis shoes someone prefers. A
quantitative variable can be ordered and measured. Examples could include

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Aaron Weyburn
Skittles Project part 1
Math 1040
Elizabeth Jones

how many sales a store had in a day or how much rain fell within the last
week in your city. It is best to collect both types of data if possible to draw
more accurate conclusions and answer questions with as much confidence
as possible. Bar graphs and pie charts make sense for categorical data. Bar
graphs compare the sizes of categories, and pie charts are best used with
categorical data because they help us see what percentage of the whole
each category constitutes. Stemplots, histograms, and boxplots make sense
for quantitative data. Stemplots show shapes of distributions and organize
numbers. Histograms, like stemplots, show shapes of distributions of data.
So we can tell if the distribution is skew and if so in which direction. Box
plots reveal how the data are spread out and is a graph of the five-number
summary of your data.

SKITTLES PROJECT PART 2

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS:
A confidence interval is, used to estimate some numerical characteristic
in a population by observing or measuring that characteristic on a sample
from the population of interest.1 If the population that one is observing is
not possible to calculate, then it is considered best to test a sample of that
population. For example, suppose you wanted to know the mean weight of
10 year old girls in the United States. If you tested for that sample, and
found out that the mean weight was 90lbs (a point estimate), then this would
be of limited usefulness as it does not indicate the uncertainty of the
estimate. How confident could one be to determine that? The confidence
interval can help illuminate the data (Lower Bound 85lbs, Upper Bound
95lbs). As it pertains to the Skittles Project, and a 99% confidence interval,
this means that less than 1% is expected to be within that range. The
confidence interval is directly related to the width of the range. The higher
the confidence, the wider the ranger will have to be, and so forth.
1
http://jukebox.esc13.net/untdeveloper/RM/Stats_Module_3/Stats_Module_34.h
tml

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Aaron Weyburn
Skittles Project part 1
Math 1040
Elizabeth Jones

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ESTIMATE (99%) FOR THE POPULATIONN

PROPORTION OF YELLOW SKITTLES

The portion of yellow skittles that will fall between .185 and .226 is 99%.
Additionally, 2.575 is the critical value associated with the 99% confidence.
The standard deviation or errors of 2.575 will be the confidence interval that
becomes (p). It will be represented in 99/100 samples. Any sample
proportion greater than this value (2.575) from the population proportion will
result in a confidence interval that does not contain (p). It can be expected in
1/100 samples collected.

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ESTIMATE (95%) FOR THE POPULATION MEAN

NUMBER OFSKITTLES PER BAG

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Aaron Weyburn
Skittles Project part 1
Math 1040
Elizabeth Jones

We are 95% confident that the mean number of candies per bag is between
58.846 and 60.916. A confidence interval of the mean uses the T-distribution
to determine the critical value. The t-deviation uses sample standard
deviation to estimate the population standard deviation, because it has a
larger spread than the z-distribution (represented in the above population).
The t-value for the 95% confidence interval is 2.009 represented from the
distribution table. Sample proportions within 2.009 standard errors from the
population mean will have a confidence interval including the mean number
of skittles. This should occur in 95% of all samples.

HYPOTHESIS TEST

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Aaron Weyburn
Skittles Project part 1
Math 1040
Elizabeth Jones

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Aaron Weyburn
Skittles Project part 1
Math 1040
Elizabeth Jones

Hypothesis testing is a statistical test that is used to determine whether

there is enough evidence in a sample of data to infer that a certain condition
is true for the entire population.2 There are five steps in Hypothesis testing:
1) Making assumptions, 2) Stating the research and null hypotheses and
selecting (setting) alpha, 3) Selecting the sampling distribution and
specifying the test statistic, 4) Computing the test statistic, and 5) Making a
decision and interpreting the results. Sample data can be used to test the
hypothesis, but it cannot confirm that it is true. Sample data can only state
that there is sufficient data to support the statement or not. To determine if
data can be supported, parameters must be established and tested. The null

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Aaron Weyburn
Skittles Project part 1
Math 1040
Elizabeth Jones

hypothesis isnt necessarily the opposite of the hypothesis rather, the null
and alternative hypothesis is assumed true until evidence proves otherwise.
The four possible outcomes of null hypothesis testing are: 1) reject the null
when the alternative is true, 2) do not reject the null when the null is true, 3)
reject the null when the null is true (Type 1 Error), and 4) do not reject the
null hypothesis when the alternative hypothesis is true (Type II error).

2-
http://support.minitab.com/en-us/minitab/17/topic-library/basic-statistics-

and-graphs/hypothesis-tests/basics/what-is-a-hypothesis-test/

REFLECTION

There are three conditions for interval testing: 1) simple random sample,

2) normal distribution, and 3) ensuring the sample random values are

independent. The Skittles Project adhered to these three conditions. Errors in

reporting are possible but the larger the sample that is collected, the

greater the confidence in determining an accurate range of values.

Therefore, error percentage would be negligible.

Over the course of both preparing for and completing this project, the

application of statistical math analysis helped me "See" and understand the

world around me. The doctrinal concepts were

challenging to grasp (still are), but the reward for understanding the material

has enabled my inquisitive nature, which is most useful for evaluating

scientific ideas I am passionate about.

Skittles Project - See / Understand the Rainbow, Part III

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Aaron Weyburn
Skittles Project part 1
Math 1040
Elizabeth Jones

What have you learned as a result of this project?

As a result of this project, I gained tremendous insight about the nature

of human relations. Each of us unique. Although there is some similarity, our

total personality combination is different than another. And that is okay.

Variation is healthy in a product and in society too. Variation enhances the

human experience.

This project reinforced, or rather enhanced my already inquisitive nature.

Take for example the Skittles candy. I learned that each bag of skittles candy

is unique. The possible combinations are many. The chances of two Skittles

packets being exactly the same are very rare. The chances of me being able

to select two randomly selected Skittles packets that are exactly the same -

is even more unlikely. Possible, yes but very unlikely (especially because I

deliberately do not eat them very often). One sample might contain more

greens, the other less yellows, or what not. As is with human relations, each

sampling of Skittles (new person that I meet) that is enjoyable is all about

chance. I do enjoy Skittles candy, and have preferencebut there is also

something else I learned to consider the genius of variation. Variation of

flavors actually enhances the experience. Likewise, with people, there is

variation of personality, interest, background, etc. It is a sweet experience

to enjoy a favorite flavor but variation is just as rewarding.

My conclusion is this: when I began this project, I had no idea that I would

end up associating it to people and human relations. It is no secret that I

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Aaron Weyburn
Skittles Project part 1
Math 1040
Elizabeth Jones

have found this course ultimately challenging, but I do feel that I ended up

learning a mystery about my interacting with people. At 40 years of age this

insight is very timely and has been a rewarding experience to consider.

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