Hi folks,

I have been commissioned here on a very lucrative contract (straight out

of the Wild Brumby distillary) for regular Weather & climate updates that I
gather and random Facebook posts with relative & timely alerts of
significant winter weather events.

If you get any alerts a day or two after the freshies just remember theres
no friends in powder & send all correspondence immediately to Pieta.
Please.

She will reply to you all personally within 12 hrs even if its dumping and
the surfs pumping.

So rather than doing an out and out prediction for the winter ( as you
likely already have read The Grasshopper and the other croaky something
something I forget.) lets start with the basics of what drives our climate ,
and we can progress from here as we get into the Season and the topic
that really matters.

Warning !!! You may learn something here if youre not careful.

You can even ask questions , c/- Pieta., if you like .

If I dont know the answer I will make something up.

OK. The Australian climate is largely influenced by temperature patterns in

the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

The Pacific Ocean is illustrated with the Nino 3.4 outlook , and the Indian
Ocean by the Indian Ocean Dipole (i.e IOD) .

Both these models are trending into the Positive which means that the
general wind direction ( and moisture ) from the Sea Surface over these
Oceans is being drawn away from Australia. i.e El Nino and Postive IOD.

The Sea Surface heat & moisture rises in the Eastern Pacific ( North /
South America) & West Indian Ocean (Africa) causing the prevailing winds
to flow towards these warmer waters. Its called Atmospheric Convection
and is illustrated in the images next page.

**Please understand the model outlooks that are generated in Autumn

have a lower accuracy than at other times of the year.**
 To help understand further lets think back to last year when we had a
Negative IOD .

We all know how much r@#n we got , when the moisture from the Indian
Ocean was regularly drawn down to the Alps (see previous page &
Northwest Cloudbands in image below).

Then it was the guessing game when the cold fronts / freezing air would
arrive relative to when the moisture would arrive.

Remember when Perisher all but disappeared underwater one afternoon ,

Guthega Rd and the Alpine Way washed out

Another event again we got the early moisture then a severe drop in
temps , the roads all snap-froze and it was carnage from the resort
carparks back to Jindy (except for the Tow truck drivers who loved it with
$500 each recovery)

Flipside we also got the cold air before the moisture a few times and then
it was game on in the trees for those lucky to be on the spot. How sweet
that was ;-) !

Some punters called it THE best quality ever in Oz. Big call , but true
enough.

Quite simply it really is that fickle.

We have another major influence that comes into play and this is where
the good stuff comes from. Those cold frontal systems from Antarctica,
and that lovely speckled cloud we want to see in the Bight on the Satellite
images. We only need a few of these but the more the merrier.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM), also known as the Antarctic Oscillation
(AAO), describes the northsouth movement of the westerly wind belt that
circles Antarctica and directs our winter weather from the Southern Ocean
across the Great Australian Bight and ideally toward the Australian Alps.

The changing position of the westerly wind belt influences the strength
and position of these cold front storm systems, and is an important driver
of rainfall variability in southern Australia.
In the Positive phase the band of westerly winds contracts toward
Antarctica (see Summer Sub-tropical Ridge above) , and we get the
dreaded blocking high pressures over southern Australia which usually
relate to stable, dry conditions.

The big storms get pushed below us and we get the relatively warmer
moisture from the Tasman Sea pushed back onto the East Coast.

In the Negative phase the band of westerly winds expands towards the
Equator ( see Winter Sub-tropical Ridge above ) , so more (or stronger) low
pressure systems are able to push up over southern Australia which may
likely mean increased storms , & colder air ideally loaded with moisture
i.e. Snow !!. Bring this on //.

At this stage the AAO is trending towards the Negative phase as is what
you would expect as we transition from Summer to Winter .

To be sure,

We are going to get snow ( I strongly doubt well see 2.0m. )

Some systems will be sweet as , some not so business as usual in Oz.

Regardless we are going to have fun playing on and in it.

It will be another great winter in the mountains with MRBC !

Ski Heil !

Rene Pogel