THE IRAN PROJECT

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Short Briefing Paper on Irans Upcoming Presidential Elections

May 2017

Do Irans presidential elections matter?

Iranian presidents are sandwiched between the Supreme Leader (the ultimate decider),
parliament, and the Guardian Council (the arbiter of laws conformity with Islam). Together,
these institutions have a direct say and exercise veto powers on presidential policies and key
appointments.
Irans Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) makes all the strategic decisions
in foreign policy. Headed by the president, it is composed of a group of senior officials,
representing the major centers of power in Irans complex governing structure. Irans
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is represented in the SNSC.
The president has a limited mandate but plays an important role. His preferences, style
and tone matter as demonstrated by the sharp contrast between Ahmadinejads confrontational
foreign policy and Rouhanis strategy of engagement with the Westboth serving the same
Supreme Leader.
Iranian elections fall short of internationally recognized standards of free and
fair elections. The political establishment controls the inputby excluding undesirable
candidatesbut accepts the outcome, as elections reinforce the systems populist roots and
allow it to manage intra-elite competition. The triumph of Rouhani in 2013 helped rehabilitate
the electoral systems legitimacy after the near-fatal hit it suffered in 2009 after Ahmadinejads
disputed re-election.

Who are the candidates?

Iran lacks a traditional political party system. Its fluid factional landscape can be divided
into two broad categories:
Pragmatists: Also known as moderates or reformists, emphasize elected institutions
and the constitution more than divine authority; support economic privatization; advocate
for relative socio-cultural freedom within Islamic norms; and espouse integration into the
global economy, engagement with the West, and regional interdependence.
Principlists: Also known as conservatives, they seek to protect the ideological
principles of the revolution, espouse conservative Islamic socio-cultural norms, and see an
unavoidable clash of interest between the West and an independent Iran. They dominate
the systems unelected and powerful theocratic institutions.
Only six candidates (out of 1,636 hopefuls) were approved by the Guardian Council to run
in this election.

THE PRAGMATISTS:
Hassan Rouhani, 68, the incumbent president, holds a PhD in law from Glasgow Caledonian
University, was elected in 2013 on the promise of resolving the nuclear standoff and lifting
the sanctions.
Eshagh Jahangiri, 60, the incumbent vice president.
Mostafa Hashemitaba, 71, is the former head of Irans national Olympic committee.

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THE PRINCIPLISTS:
Ebrahim Raisi, 57, the current custodian of Irans holiest religious shrine, holds a PhD in
Islamic law. A high-ranking judiciary official, he was a prosecutor on the so-called death
commission that executed thousands of dissidents in 1988.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, 56, the current mayor of Tehran, is a former commander of
Revolutionary Guards air force.
Mostafa Mirsalim, 70, a former minister of culture.

What is the process?

Presidential campaign started on April 20, 2017 and ends 24 hours before Election Day on
May 19, 2017. Each candidate is granted 1470 minutes of airtime on state radio and television.
There will be three live debates among the candidates.
The election is based on a majority (50% +1) runoff system. If no candidate passes the
threshold, a runoff election will be held on May 26, 2017. Except for 2005, all presidential
elections have been determined in the first round.
Turnout for presidential election has varied between 50 and 85% since 1980. Around 56
million Iranians are eligible to vote in this election. Since elections for nearly 200,000 local
council seats are held the same day, a relatively high turnout is expected.

What is at stake?
Balance of Power: pragmatists currently control the executive branch and dominate the
legislature. Losing the presidency would significantly tilt the balance in favor of the principlists,
who already control the systems unelected bodies. Iranian presidents have regularly been re-
elected for a second term.
The Leaders Succession: The eventual transition from Supreme Leader Khamenei, 78, to
his successor will shape Irans political future. The defeat of candidate Raisi, rumored to be a
successor to Khamenei, could constitute a popular setback, but the Supreme Leader is not a
publicly elected office.
The Nuclear Accord: None of the candidates is expected to oppose the nuclear agreement,
which was approved by SNSC and remains popular despite discontent over its limited economic
dividends. Rouhani will be criticized by the opposition as weak and nave in expecting the U.S.
to keep its end of the bargain.
The Economy: Even though the IMF expects Irans economy to grow at over 5% through 2018
the dividends to the Iranian people have been limited. Unemployment is over 12%, with youth
unemployment around 30%. The failure to find employment for one million new entrants into
the economy every year undermines Irans political stability. How to relieve this mounting
threat is a central issue in this election. Rouhani promotes an open economy that would benefit
from foreign capital and technology, while his rivals emphasize a policy of self-reliance and an
economy that is resistant to outside pressure.

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