Section 7.

3: Estimating a Student t Distribution

Population Mean
Key Concept: This section presents methods for If the distribution of a population is essentially
using the sample mean to make an inference normal, then the distribution of
about the value of the correspondingx population
mean.
x
1. We should know that the sample mean is the best t=
point estimate of the population mean . s
2. We should learn how to use sample data to construct n
a confidence interval for estimating the value of a
population mean, and we should know how to is a Student t Distribution for all samples of size n.
interpret such confidence intervals. It is often referred to as a t distribution.
3. We should develop the ability to determine the sample
size necessary to estimate a population mean.

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Important Properties of the Student t Distributions for

Student t Distribution n = 3 and n = 12
1. The Student t distribution is different for different sample sizes.
(See the following slide for the cases n = 3 and n = 12.)
2. The Student t distribution has the same general symmetric bell
shape as the standard normal distribution but it reflects the greater
variability (with wider distributions) that is expected with small
samples. 11
3. The Student t distribution has a mean of t = 0 (just as the standard
normal distribution has a mean of z = 0).
4. The standard deviation of the Student t distribution varies with the
sample size and is greater than 1 (unlike the standard normal
distribution, which has = 1).
5. As the sample size n gets larger, the Student t distribution gets
closer to the normal distribution.
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Confidence Interval for the Notation

Estimate of (With Not Known)
= population mean
s x
x E < < x + E where E = t 2 = sample mean
n s = sample standard deviation
n = number of sample values
where
E = margin of error
t /2 = critical t value separating an area of /2 in the
Use df = n 1 and t /2 found in Table A-3.
right tail of the t distribution

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 Definition
Requirements
The number of degrees of freedom for a collection 1. Simple random sample.
of sample data is the number of sample values
that can vary after certain restrictions have been 2. is unknown.
imposed on all data values. 3. The procedure we use has a requirement that the
The degree of freedom is often abbreviated df. population is normally distributed or the sample size is
greater than 30.

degrees of freedom = n 1
for the methods in this section

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Example Finding a Sample Size for Estimating a

Population Mean
A common claim is that garlic lowers cholesterol levels. In
a test of the effectiveness of garlic, 49 subjects were
= population mean
treated with doses of raw garlic, and their cholesterol 2
levels were measured before and after the treatment.
!z $
= population standard deviation n = # /2 &
The changes in their levels of LDL cholesterol (in mg/dL) x = sample mean " E %
have a mean of 0.4 and a standard deviation of 21.0.
22 E = desired margin of error

a/
Use the sample statistics of n = 49, x = 0.4, and s = 21.0 to z 2 = z score separating an area of /2 in the right tail of
construct a 95% confidence interval estimate of the mean the standard normal distribution
net change in LDL cholesterol after the garlic treatment.
If the computed sample size n is not a whole
What does the confidence interval suggest about the
effectiveness of garlic in reducing LDL cholesterol?
number, round the value of n up to the next
larger whole number.

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Finding the Sample Size n Example

When is Unknown Assume that we want to estimate the mean IQ score for the
population of statistics students. How many statistics students
must be randomly selected for IQ tests if we want 95%
1. Use the range rule of thumb (see Section 3-3) to confidence that the sample mean is within 3 IQ points of the
estimate the standard deviation as follows: population mean? Assume = 15.
range / 4
2. Start the sample collection process without knowing
and, using the first several values, calculate the sample
standard deviation s and use it in place of . The
estimated value of can then be improved as more
sample data are obtained, and the sample size can be
refined accordingly.

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Confidence Interval for Estimating a Confidence Interval for Estimating
Population Mean (with Known) a Population Mean (with Known)

x E < < x + E where E = z 2
n
1. The sample is a simple random sample.
= population mean
2. The value of the population standard deviation is
x = sample mean
known.
= population standard deviation
3. Either or both of these conditions is satisfied: The
n = number of sample values population is normally distributed or n > 30.

E = margin of error
z /2 = critical z value separating an area of /2 in the
right tail of the standard normal distribution
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Example Example - Continued

People have died in boat and aircraft accidents because an
obsolete estimate of the mean weight of men was used. a. Find the best point estimate of the mean weight of the
In recent decades, the mean weight of men has increased population of all men.
considerably, so we need to update our estimate of that b. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate of the
mean so that boats, aircraft, elevators, and other such mean weight of all men.
devices do not become dangerously overloaded.
c. What do the results suggest about the mean weight of
Using the weights of men from a random sample, we obtain
these sample statistics for the simple random sample:
33 166.3 lb that was used to determine the safe passenger
capacity of water vessels in 1960 (as given in the
n = 40 and x = 172.55 lb. National Transportation and Safety Board safety
recommendation M-04-04)?
Research from several other sources suggests that the
population of weights of men has a standard deviation given
by = 26 lb.

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 Choosing the Appropriate Distribution Section 7.4: Estimating a
Population Standard Deviation or
Use the normal (z) known and Variance.
distribution
normally distributed
population or n > 30
Key Concept: This section we introduce the chi-
square probability distribution so that we can
Use t distribution not known and construct confidence interval estimates of a
normally distributed population standard deviation or variance.
population or n > 30

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Chi-Square Distribution Chi-Square Distribution

In a normally distributed population with variance 2 ,
assume that we randomly select independent samples of
2 =
( n 1) s 2
size n and, for each sample, compute the sample variance 2
s2 (which is the square of the sample standard deviation s).
where
The sample statistic 2 (pronounced chi-square) has a
sampling distribution called the chi-square distribution.
44 s
s2
= sample standard deviation
= sample variance
2 = population variance
df = n 1 degrees of freedom

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Properties of the Distribution Properties of the Distribution

of the Chi-Square Statistic of the Chi-Square Statistic
1. The chi-square distribution is not symmetric, unlike
the normal and Student t distributions. As the number of
2. The values of chi-square can be zero or positive, but it cannot
degrees of freedom increases, the distribution becomes
be negative.
more symmetric.
3. The chi-square distribution is different for each number of
degrees of freedom, which is df = n 1. As the number of
degrees of freedom increases, the chi-square distribution
approaches a normal distribution.

In Table A-4, each critical value of 2 corresponds to an area

given in the top row of the table, and that area represents the
cumulative area located to the right of the critical value.

Chi-Square Distribution Chi-Square Distribution for

df = 10 and df = 20
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 Estimators of 2 Confidence Interval for Estimating a
Population Standard Deviation or Variance
The sample variance s2 is the best point
Confidence Interval for the Population Variance 2
estimate of the population variance 2.

Estimator of
(n 1)s 2

< 2
<
(n 1)s 2

The sample standard deviation s is a R2 L2

commonly used point estimate of (even
though it is a biased estimate).

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Confidence Interval for Estimating a Confidence Interval for Estimating a

Population Standard Deviation or Variance Population Standard Deviation or Variance
= population standard deviation
Confidence Interval for the Population
2 = population variance
Standard Deviation s = sample standard deviation
s2 = sample variance

(n 1)s 2
(n 1)s 2 55 n = number of sample values
2
L2 = left-tailed critical value of
< <
2
2 R2 = right-tailed critical value of 2
R L

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Confidence Interval for Estimating a Procedure for Constructing a

Population Standard Deviation or Variance Confidence Interval for or 2

1. Verify that the required assumptions are satisfied.

Requirements:
2. Using n 1 degrees of freedom, refer to Table A-4
1. The sample is a simple random sample. or use technology to find the critical values
2 2
2. The population must have normally distributed R and L that correspond to the desired
values (even if the sample is large).
confidence level.
3. Evaluate the upper and lower confidence interval limits
using this format of the confidence interval:
(n 1)s 2

< 2 <
(n 1)s 2

R2 L2

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 Procedure for Constructing a Example
Confidence Interval for or 2
A group of 22 subjects took an IQ test during part of a study.
The subjects had a standard deviation IQ score of 14.3.
4. If a confidence interval estimate of is desired, take the Assume the requirements are met.
square root of the upper and lower confidence interval
limits and change 2 to .
Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate of , the
standard deviation of the population from which the sample
5. Round the resulting confidence level limits. If using the was obtained.
original set of data to construct a confidence interval,
round the confidence interval limits to one more decimal
place than is used for the original set of data. If using the
sample standard deviation or variance, round the
confidence interval limits to the same number of decimal
places.

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66

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