Friday, July 23, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

From KBC Market Research Desk - More research on www.kbc.be/dealingroom

EUR/PLN: (4.0860)

FOREX EURPLN=D2, (4.0865, 4.0880, 4.0850, 4.0871, -0.0014)

4.2400 HOURLY CHARTS

4.2060
4.2050
4.20
4.1790

4.1550
4.15

4.10

4.05
4.0405

4.0120 4.00

3.9400 3.95

3.90

3.85

2010 May June July

Still above 200 Day Moving Average↓ (4.0519 today) but currently back below the daily Uptrendline off
year low (4.1180 today).
Resistance at 4.0987 (daily envelope top), with next levels at 4.1180/ .1190 (see above/ reaction high
hourly) and 4.1354 (daily Downtrendline off 4.2400), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at ahead of 4.1406 (modified daily Standard Error band top), ahead of 4.1550 (cur-
rent week high): tough on 1st attempts.
Support at 4.0760 (today’s + current week low?), with next levels at 4.0700/ .0644 (reaction low hourly/
break-up hourly), ahead of 4.0587/ .0539 (daily envelope bottom/ modified daily Alpha Beta Trend bottom)
and 4.0519 (see above): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

4.0760 (see above) 4.0987 (daily envelope top)

4.0700/ .0644 (reaction low hourly/ break-up hourly) 4.1073/ .1190 (daily Bollinger midline/ see above)

4.0587/ .0539 (daily envelope bottom/ see above) 4.1354/ .1406 (daily Downtrendline off 4.2400/ see above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research
 Friday, July 23, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

EUR/HUF: (285.55) New recovery high (see graph)

FOREX EURHUF=D2, (285.550, 285.800, 285.400, 285.500, -0.050) 294

292.10 293
292
290.55
291
290
289
288
287
285.20 286
285
284
283
282
281
280
279
278
277
276
275
275.50
274
273
272
271.15
271
270
269
268
267
266
265
264
263
262.05 262
261
260

2010 May June July

Pair hit a new recovery high off year low on break of IMF talks: currently back below the Uptrendline off
262.05 (see graph): Support at 282.96 (current week low), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 282.33/ .20 (broken daily Long/ Medium Term Moving Averages↓), ahead of 281.48
(daily envelope bottom) and 280.51/ .19 (break-up daily/ 38.2% 260.93 to 292.10): tough on 1st attempts.

Resistance at 286.50/ 287.15 (reaction highs hourly), with next level at 288.40 (breakdown hourly), where pause
favored.
If wrong, next levels at 289.55/ 290.25 (modified daily Standard error band top/ daily Bollinger top): tough on 1st
attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

282.96 (current week low) 286.50/ 287.15 (see above)

282.33/ .20 (see above) 288.40 (breakdown hourly)

281.48/ 280.51 (daily envelope bottom/ break-up daily) 289.55/ 290.25 (see above/ daily Bollinger top)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 2
 Friday, July 23, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

EUR/RUB: (39.1550) New recovery high off year low

FOREX EURRUB=,22 (39.1100, 39.1550, 39.0950, 39.1450, +0.0400)

39.6470
39.7
39.6
39.5
39.4
39.2796 39.3
39.2
39.1
39.0
38.9
38.8
38.7
38.6
38.6200 38.5
38.4
38.3
38.2
38.1
38.0
37.9
37.8975
37.8
37.7
37.6
37.5

37.4455 37.4
37.3
24 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July

New recovery high off year low (see graph).

1st Support at 39.0410 (break-up hourly), with next levels at 38.9644 (daily envelope bottom + daily Bollinger mid-
line), ahead of 38.8750/ .8625 (current week low/ modified daily Standard Error band bottom), where pause fa-
vored.
If wrong, next levels at 38.8150/ .7600 (reaction lows hourly), ahead of 38.7170 (break-up hourly) and 38.6565/
.6347 (daily Long Term Moving Average↑/ daily Starc bottom): tough on 1st attempts.

Resistance at 39.2300 (reaction high hourly), with next levels at 39.3076 (daily envelope top), where pause
favored.
If wrong, next levels at 39.3750/ .4050 (reaction highs hourly), ahead of 39.5389 (modified daily Alpha Beta
trend top) and 39.6470/ .6765 (current new recovery high off year low/ April high): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

39.0410/ 38.9644 (see above/ daily envelope bot-

39.2300 (see above)
tom + daily Bollinger midline)

38.8750/ .8625 (current week low/ see above) 39.3076 (daily envelope top)

38.8150/ .7600 (see above) 39.3750/ .4050 (reaction highs hourly)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 3
 Friday, July 23, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

EUR/CZK: (25.1800) Below 25.4200 and testing channel bottom off 26.3000 (see graph)

FOREX EURCZK=D2, (25.185, 25.185, 25.175, 25.180, -0.025)

26.35
26.3000
26.30
26.25
26.20
26.15
26.0800
26.10
26.05
26.00
25.95
25.90
25.85
25.80
25.75
25.70
25.65
25.60
25.55
25.50
25.45
25.4200 25.40
25.35
25.30
25.3000 25.25
25.20
25.15
25.10
25.05
25.00
25.0150
24.95

2010 May June July

Below 25.4200 (see graph) and below weekly Uptrendline off low (25.4830).
Testing channel bottom off 26.3000 (see graph and daily Uptrendline off Sept 2009 low (25.1710 today):
Support at 25.1100/ .1060 (current week low + modified daily Alpha Beta trend bottom/ daily + weekly Bollin-
ger bottoms) and 25.0930 (daily envelope bottom), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 25.0150 (year low + daily Starc bottom) and 24.9750 (Sept 2009 low): tough on 1st at-
tempts.

Resistance area at 25.2440/ .2660 (daily envelope top/ daily Short Term Moving Average↓), with next levels at
25.3380/ .3530 (reaction high hourly/ daily Medium Term Moving Average↓) and 25.4000/ .4200 (reaction high
hourly/ breakdown hourly): ideal area to stay below to keep current mood on CZK.
If unable to cap, next levels at 25.4600 (daily projection band top + daily Bollinger midline), ahead of 25.5220
(current week high), where pause favored.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

25.1100/ .1060 (see above/ daily + weekly Bollinger

25.2440/ .2660 (daily envelope top/ see above)
bottoms)

25.0930 (daily envelope bottom) 25.3380/ .3530 (see above/ daily MT MA↓)

25.0150/ 24.9750 (year low + daily Starc bottom/

25.4000/ .4200 (see above/ breakdown hourly)
Sept 2009 low)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 4
 Friday, July 23, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

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