Matthew White

Ms. Knight

AP Stats - 3

February 26, 2017

Chapter 11 - Investigative Task

A friend of mine claims that he has ESP. ESP is a very rare circumstance where a person

has a extrasensory awareness and are speculated to be physic. Being that this is very rare, my

friend will demonstrate his supposedly ESP ability by passing out shuffled envelopes to ten

volunteers that has their names on cards and in indistinguishable envelops. The envelopes will

have to be handed back to each of the persons in order. There will be 20 trials conducted to see

how many envelopes are handed back accurately.

Within the simulation the random digits 0-9 will represent the 10 volunteers. The random

sampling of numbers that are computer generated will represent the shuffled envelopes. The

random sample will be compared to a orderly pattern of 0-9 to represent the volunteers. The

response variable in this simulation will be the matches between ordered sequence and random

sequence. The more numbers that are matched in the sequence, makes it more likely to conclude

that my friend does in fact have ESP. (The results of this simulation can be viewed below.)

Based upon my results from the simulation conducted, it is fair to say that acquiring up to

three matches is normal from an average human being without ESP. Perhaps even four wouldn't

be unusual to achieve. The max number of matches was 3 and the minimum was 0. The

probability of matching all envelopes is .00036. In pursuance of believing my friend has ESP, he

would have to match 6 or more envelopes with the correct volunteer. Perhaps then his theory of

having ESP will be believable.

Simulation Chart

Trial # Order Total Matches

1 0, 2, 9, 7, 3, 5, 4, 1, 6, 8 1

2 5, 1, 3, 0, 2, 9, 7, 4, 6, 8 1

3 7, 4, 8, 3, 5, 6, 1, 9, 2, 0 1

4 1, 7, 9, 5, 3, 2, 8, 0, 4, 6 0

5 2, 1, 6, 5, 0, 4, 3, 7, 8, 9 3

6 9, 0, 8, 7, 4, 1, 2, 3, 5, 6 1

7 4, 7, 6, 3, 1, 9, 5, 8, 2, 0 1

8 6, 5, 2, 7, 4, 1, 9, 3, 8, 0 3

9 7, 6, 1, 8, 9, 2, 0, 4, 3, 5 0

10 5, 3, 7, 1, 0, 9, 2, 6, 4, 8 0

11 3, 2, 4, 0, 7, 5, 9, 8, 1, 6 0

12 7, 4, 6, 1, 3, 2, 8, 5, 9, 0 0

13 4, 6, 9, 3, 5, 0, 7, 1, 2, 8 1

14 7, 4, 8, 0, 6, 3, 5, 1, 9, 2 0

15 8, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 2, 0, 1, 5 0

16 0, 7, 1, 4, 9, 8, 2, 5, 6, 3 0

17 3, 0, 7, 4, 8, 9, 6, 5, 2, 1 1

18 7, 0, 9, 3, 6, 1, 4, 8, 2, 5 1

19 9, 1, 8, 4, 5, 6, 7, 2, 3, 0 1

20 0, 7, 5, 9, 3, 4, 2, 8, 6, 1 1