Investment Research

23 July 2010

EMEA Weekly
Hungarian foot-in-mouth politics

Market Movers ahead: South African inflation coming up

Next week is relatively light in terms of economic releases. A couple of interesting
Recovery continues in Q2
numbers are due out on Wednesday though. We are due for preliminary data on
15 15
Lithuanian Q2 GDP growth. We expect the recovery of the Lithuanian economy to 10
% y/y % y/y
10
continue and forecast GDP to have contracted by 1.7% y/y in Q2. Also on Wednesday 5 5
0 GDP, Lithuania 0
we are due for data on South African inflation in June. This number could get some
-5 -5
attention following this week’s decision by the South African central bank to keep rates -10 -10

unchanged. -15 -15

-20 -20
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Fixed Income Outlook: More Hungarian mess next week? Source: Danske Markets

Looking into next week we have relatively little on the agenda in terms of
macroeconomic data releases, so the markets could continue to focus on the Hungarian
Inflation headed down further
situation and we fear that we could be heading for more volatility in the Hungarian fixed
income markets. 12 % y/y % y/y 12
10 Inflation, South Africa 10
8 8
6 6
FX Outlook: CZK stays on top 4 4
2 2
CZK continues to be the top performer in our EMEA FX Scorecard and the only real
0 0
bright spot in the EMEA FX markets. The Scorecard remains relatively negative on the 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

rest of the EMEA currencies and the most negative on the South African rand. The rand
Source: Danske Markets
is the currency that we are the most worried about. It looks fundamentally overvalued
and short-term indicators point toward a rand sell-off.

Scorecard-based trade of the week Buy CZK/ZAR

Last week we recommended that investors Buy CZK/ZAR based on our EMEA FX
Scorecard. We are happy to maintain this recommendation going into next week and the
Czech koruna is still the high scoring currency in our EMEA FX Scorecard, while the
rand remains the lowest scoring currency. Over the past week CZK/ZAR has been more
or less flat.

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EMEA Weekly

Calendar

EMEA Data and Events in Week30

Monday, July 26, 2010 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous
HUF 9:00 Retail trade y/y May -5.0% -3.8% -5.0%

Tuesday, July 27, 2010 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous

Wednesday, July 28, 2010 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous

HUF 9:00 Unemployment % Jun 11.2% 11.4%
LTL 10:00 GDP, preliminary y/y 2nd quarter -1.7% -2.8%
LTL 10:00 Retail trade y/y Jun -5.5%
ZAR 11:30 CPI y/y Jun 4.5% 4.6%

Thursday, July 29, 2010 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous

HUF 9:00 Producer prices m/m|y/y Jun |6.7% 3.8%|5.5%
ZAR 11:30 Producerprices y/y Jun 7.3% 6.8%

Friday, July 30, 2010 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous

EEK 7:00 Industrial production y/y Jun 13.0% 17.1%
EEK 7:00 Retail Trade y/y Jun -5.2% -5.0%
HUF 9:00 Trade balance, final m. EUR May 428.8
TRY 9:00 Trade balance ml. USD Jun -6.1 -4.8
LVL 12:00 Retail trade y/y Jun -5.0% -8.4%
ZAR 14:00 Trade balance B. ZAR Jun -2.2 -0.3

The editors do not guarantee the accurateness of figures, hours or dates stated above
Note that all releases are CET.

7
Source: Danske Markets

2| 23 July 2010
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EMEA Weekly

Fixed income market update

Review: Oh no, please no more bad news out of Budapest
Once again Hungary is back in the limelight – and that unfortunately is not too positive. EMEA swap rate performance
Last weekend talks between the EU/IMF and the Hungarian government broke down. 2Y IRS Mid level 1W chg - bp
That is hardly good news and Hungarian yields and rates have spiked this week. Rather CZK 1.66 -1
impressively, there has been no spill-over to Polish and Czech rates and yields, which is a HUF 6.20 25
clear indication that the markets for now– rightly in our view – see this as a Hungarian PLN 4.57 -3
rather than a wider central & eastern European (CEE) story. That said if the Hungarian RUB 5.45 -2
TRY 7.38 -12
crisis escalates we don’t believe that the other CEE markets will remain totally immune,
ZAR 6.61 -2
but for now there is reason to panic. See also our comments on the Hungarian crisis here.
5Y IRS Mid level 1W chg - bp
On Friday Moody’s said it puts Hungary’s rating on review for a possible downgrade. CZK 2.24 -2
That added further to the negative sentiment in the Hungarian markets. HUF 6.52 22
PLN 5.13 -2
Contrary to the dismal performance of Hungarian fixed income markets over the week
RUB 6.80 5
has been the fantastic performance of the Turkish fixed income markets where yields TRY 7.83 -25
have dropped sharply. Overall, we have had a little trouble explaining that and the size of ZAR 7.39 -7
the move probably has to be seen in the light of fairly light liquidity in the markets at the Data updated: 23/07 - CET: 12:00
moment. However, in our view the long-term neutral interest rates level in Turkey should Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets
be above 10% (assuming a real interest rate level of about 5%). Recently both 2y and 5y
swap yields have moved below 10%. That to us seems to be somewhat too aggressive
even though we also acknowledge that Turkish fundamentals look quite strong and
possible upgrades of Turkish credit rating could, in the short-term, see yields even lower.
We especially believe that the long-end of the curve has come down too much and we
would be looking for Turkish 5y yields to rise in the coming 12 months.

On Thursday the South African reserve bank (SARB) decided to leave its key policy
rate unchanged at 6.50% – in line with the consensus expectation, but contrary to our
expectation of a 50 basis points cut. However, over the week South African rates are
down. See more on the South African rate decision here.
Preview: More Hungarian trouble in the pipeline
Looking into next week we have relatively little on the agenda in terms of
macroeconomic data releases so the markets could continue to focus on the Hungarian
situation and we fear that we could be heading for more volatility in the Hungarian fixed
income markets.

We are especially worried that the Hungarian government’s apparent disregard for the
concerns of international lenders and market participants could spark more volatility and
if we see yet another sharp move in the forint then we would certainly not rule out that the
Hungarian central bank might decided to hike interest rates in a “super hike” of 300-
400bp as on previous occasions where the forint has come under significant pressure. We
therefore recommend investors to be positioned for a further rise in the Hungarian yields
– especially at the short-end of the curve.

3| 23 July 2010
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EMEA Weekly

FX Market update
FX performance – one week
Preview: HUF is punished
HUF vs. EUR
The worst performing currency over the week has unsurprisingly been the Hungarian
EUR/USD 1-week
forint. Given the news flow, the sell-off in HUF should hardly be a surprise to anybody change
RON vs. EUR
and we are in fact surprised that the beating of the Hungarian currency has not been
Basket vs. RUB
greater than has been the case. Overall, we continue see a risk that EUR/HUF could move
CZK vs. EUR
above 300 on a one- to three-month horizon.
PLN vs. EUR
On the positive side, we have noted that the Czech koruna has been more or less unmoved TRY vs. USD

by forint volatility, which we consider as a sign of real strength for the Czech currency TRY vs. EUR

and we remain upbeat on the outlook for the koruna. ZAR vs. USD

Review: We continue to worry about the rand ZAR vs. EUR

-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0

The week’s best performing currency has been the South Africa rand. That is puzzling to %
Data updated: 23/07 - CET: 12:01
us and it is no secret that for some time we have warned about a possible upcoming sell-
off in the South African rand. In fact the rand continues to the lowest scoring currency Source: Reuters Ecowin

in our EMEA FX Scorecard, so we remain quite bearish on it. Furthermore, we have

noted that the South African government is certainly not happy with the strength of the
rand, while the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) on the other hand seems to be
against any attempt to actively weaken it. SARB, on the other hand, also appear to
acknowledge that the rand is overvalued. We are with SARB here – the rand is certainly
fundamentally overvalued, but activist policies to weaken the rand probably would be
counterproductive.

That said when president Zuma this week said that the South African government the FX performance – one month
level of the rand is “Occupying the mind” of the government and the rand is
ZAR vs. EUR
fundamentally overvalued – with most short-term indicators pointing toward a sell-off – it
HUF vs. EUR
1-month change
is very difficult to not recommend that investors should be short in the rand. The only
TRY vs. EUR
argument for a strong rand is basically that there are no arguments for a strong rand, so
RON vs. EUR
that the contrarian would be long on it.
Basket vs. RUB

PLN vs. EUR

Scorecard-based trade of the week Buy CZK/ZAR ZAR vs. USD

Last week we recommended that investors Buy CZK/ZAR, based on our EMEA FX CZK vs. EUR

Scorecard. We are happy to maintain this recommendation going into next week and the TRY vs. USD

EUR/USD
Czech koruna is still the high scoring currency in our EMEA FX Scorecard, while the
rand remains the lowest scoring currency. Over the past week CZK/ZAR has been more -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0
%
or less flat. Data updated: 23/07 - CET: 12:02

Source: Reuters Ecowin

4| 23 July 2010
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EMEA Weekly

FX Scorecard overview
Score – PLN Score – HUF EMEA FX Scorecard outline
5.0 5.0  All scores are computed on a scale
2.5 2.5 from +5 to -5. The score measures
0.0 0.0 how far from a mean point the
-2.5 -0.2 -2.5 -0.5
indicator is, measured by standard
-5.0 -5.0 deviation. A score is then combined

Technical

Global
Carry

Valuation
Technical

Global
Carry

Valuation

Macro
Macro

Total
Total

from the different sub-scores.

 Macro: calculates the growth

momentum in different monthly
Danske Markets calculations Danske Markets calculations
macro indicators.

 Technical: calculates the momentum

Score – CZK Score – TRY in different volatility measures, short-
5.0 5.0 and longer-term moving averages and
2.5 0.5 2.5 the level of relative strength index.
0.0 0.0  Carry: calculates the momentum in
-0.1
-2.5 -2.5 local three-month rates, carry-to-risk,
-5.0 -5.0 spread against EUR or USD three-
Technical

Technical
Global

Global
Carry

Carry
Valuation

Valuation
Macro

Macro
Total

Total
month rates and spread against peers.

 Global: consists of a global growth

score based on leading global
Danske Markets calculations Danske Markets calculations
indicators and hard macro data, a
liquidity score based on the
momentum in G3 real rates and a
Score – ZAR Score – RON
sentiment score based on performance
5.0 5.0
in the global equity market and
2.5 2.5 0.3 traditional funding currencies.
0.0 0.0
-2.5 -1.1 -2.5  Valuation: calculates whether
-5.0 -5.0 currencies are over/undervalued
compared with the long-term trend in
Technical

Technical
Global

Global
Carry

Carry
Valuation

Valuation
Macro

Macro
Total

Total
Com

the real effective exchange rate

(REER). The trend is adjusted for
external imbalances, i.e. an
Danske Markets calculations Danske Markets calculations
imbalance-adjusted REER. The scores
are calibrated to reflect the short-term
Score – ILS Score – Total impact of the valuation on the FX.
5.0 5.0
2.5 2.5
0.0 0.0
-2.5 -0.5 -2.5 -0.2

-5.0 -5.0
Technical

Technical
Global

Global
Carry

Carry
Valuation

Valuation
Macro

Macro
Total

Total

Danske Markets calculations Danske Markets calculations

5| 23 July 2010
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EMEA Weekly

Special: Will Erdogan be out soon?

Next year could see an end to the rule of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan when the
Turks vote in next year’s general elections – at least if one believes the latest opinion
polls. These show more support for the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) than
for Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP). Furthermore, even though the
Nationalist Action Party (MHP) – a likely coalition partner of CHP – has been losing
support in the polls recently it has enough support (around 15% in recent polls) to bring
the total support for CHP and MHP above 50%. So the polls are quite clear – it looks very
challenging for Erdogan and his party to hold on to support, unless he joins a coalition
with either CHP or MHP, which is something we find unlikely – even though CHP and
MHP are not the most obvious bedfellows in the world they nonetheless would likely be
united by their opposition in the ruling AKP. Therefore, we believe it is now likely that
AKP will be out of power and CHP and MHP will form a coalition government with the
new CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as new Prime Minister. Kılıçdaroğlu undoubtedly is
the key reason for the recent surge in support for CHP in the opinion polls. He became
leader of CHP after a sex scandal led to the resignation of long-time leader of the CHP,
Deniz Baykal. What initially was seen as a major negative scandal for CHP has in fact
turned out to be quite positive for the support of the party.
Will a CHP-MHP coalition scare the markets?
AKP losing its majority
AKP’s rule of Turkey undoubtedly has been a success in economic terms with the
40 40

economy growing strongly since AKP came into power in 2002. Turkey has also emerged 35
% of all voters

35

strongly after the global credit crisis and even though inflation is still too high it is 30 30

nonetheless significantly lower than before AKP came into power. From an investor 25 25

perspective the impressive improvement in public finances undoubtedly also is positive. 20 20

Hence, overall international investors will be unhappy if AKP were to lose power in 15 15

10 10
2011. On the other hand, it should also be acknowledged that that the AKP government’s Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10

AKP CHP MHP

reform effort in the past couple of years have been less impressive than in the early days
Source: Sonar, Research
of AKP’s rule and there is, without question, some reform fatigue within the Turkish
government. Furthermore, the increasingly Islamist rhetoric of Prime Minister Erdogan in
particular is clearly also unnerving to international investors. So overall, even though
international investors acknowledge that AKP had a positive impact on the performance
in the Turkish markets over the past eight years they will probably get over it if AKP lose
the elections next year. However, the real question will be how the markets will receive a
CHP-MHP coalition government. From an investor perspective there would clearly be
some concerns about how strong an influence MHP would get on the government. After
all the party is strongly nationalistic, anti-EU and economically interventionist. Hardly
something that will be received positively by the markets. However, as long as MHP will
not get any of the key economic ministries then the market reaction will be less negative.
Furthermore, if CHP were to appoint technocrats from Turkey’s secular elite as Finance
Minister and Minister of Economics, we would not be terribly worried about any major
changes in terms of fiscal policy.

Concluding, the markets would probably receive it negatively if AKP where to lose
power to a CHP-MHP coalition next year, but if a new government under the leadership
of the technocrat oriented Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu where to move fast to reassure the markets
that the overall policy framework – meaning fiscal consolidation and an independent
central bank – was unchanged then we believe that the negative market reaction would be
fairly short-lived. In fact we are more worried about whether AKP will turn in a
significantly more populist direction in the coming months to regain support so market
participant should start keeping an eye on Turkish politics, but for now there is no reason
to have sleepless nights over next year’s election.

6| 23 July 2010
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EMEA Weekly

Special: Estonian macro outlook

This week we published our updated macro forecasts on the Estonian economy taking
GDP is recovering
into account the latest economic releases for May and June. In this special we present a
short summary of the analysis. To read the full text see our Estonian Macro Monitor. 15
% y/y % y/y
15
10 10
5 5
The Estonian economy was one of the most affected within the Euro area by the global 0 0
credit crunch but is now recovering quite rapidly, particularly in the export area. The -5 -5
-10 Gdp, Estonia -10
good performance of Estonian industrial production was largely the result of a positive -15 -15
base effect. However, it is clear that other positive factors such as rising external demand -20 -20
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
have also contributed to growth in manufacturing activities.

GDP growth improved to minus 2% y/y in Q1 10 from minus 9.5% y/y in Q4 09 and we Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets

expect the Estonian recovery to continue in the coming quarters. We expect average GDP
growth of 0.3% y/y in 2010 and 2.0% y/y in 2011. Return to the trend growth rate is
Temporary C/A surplus
expected in 2011.
5.0 5.0
Inflation has accelerated significantly in recent months, partly due to one-off effects 2.5 % of GDP % of GDP 2.5
0.0 0.0
related to rise in mobile communication prices and partly due to upside in energy prices. -2.5 -2.5
-5.0 -5.0
We now expect inflation to rise to close to 2.5% by the end of the year. -7.5
Current account, Estonia
-7.5
-10.0 -10.0
-12.5 -12.5
The current account is expected to turn to less positive during H2 10 as growth picks up -15.0 -15.0
-17.5 -17.5
speed during H2 10 and in 2011, we look for increasing trade and current account balance -20.0 -20.0
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
deficits.
Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets
Macro forecasts

1 Private. 1 1 1
Year Gdp 1 Fixed Inv Export Import Unemployment to go above 20%
cons
22.5 22.5
% %
2009 -14.1 -18.8 -34.4 -11.3 -26.7 20.0 20.0
17.5 Unemployment, Estonia 17.5
2010 0.3 -2.9 -2.6 20.8 15.0 15.0 15.0
12.5 12.5
2011 2.0 0.9 5.7 13.5 12.8 10.0 10.0
7.5 7.5
2012 3.6 3.2 6.1 8.9 9.9 5.0 5.0
2.5 2.5
1) Average % y/y 2) % of GDP 3) % of total work force 4) Export and import prices, EUR 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets

Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets

Macro forecasts
Inflation jumps on one-off effects
Trade Current Industrial Unemploy 1 1
Year 2, 4 2, 4 1 3 Wages Inflation 12.5 12.5
Balance acc. prod. ment % y/y % y/y
10.0 10.0
2009 -4.1 4.6 -26.2 15.5 -4.6 -0.1 7.5 7.5

2010 -5.4 1.6 15.4 20.6 -1.5 2.5 5.0 5.0

2.5 2.5
2011 -9.1 -1.3 20.5 17.9 -1.1 3.3 Inflation, Estonia
0.0 0.0
2012 -12.6 -5.2 12.3 16.5 1.7 2.7 -2.5 -2.5
03 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets

Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets

7| 23 July 2010
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EMEA Weekly

Currency forecast, EMEA

Currency Forecast, New Europe/EMEA
Jul 23. 2010 EUR USD SEK NOK DKK
Actual 1.29 - 730 616 576
+3m 1.15 - 817 665 647
USD
+6m 1.18 - 780 644 631
+12m 1.27 - 724 598 587
Actual 4.06 3.14 232 196 183
+3m 4.05 3.52 232 189 184
PLN
+6m 4.05 3.43 227 188 184
+12m 4.00 3.15 230 190 186
Actual 286 221 3.31 2.79 2.61
+3m 285 248 3.30 2.68 2.61
HUF
+6m 285 242 3.23 2.67 2.61
+12m 280 220 3.29 2.71 2.66
Actual 25.2 19.5 37.5 31.7 29.6
+3m 24.8 21.6 37.9 30.8 30.0
CZK
+6m 24.4 20.7 37.7 31.1 30.5
+12m 23.6 18.6 39.0 32.2 31.6
Actual 15.6 12.1 60.4 50.9 47.6
+3m 15.7 13.6 60.1 48.9 47.5
EEK
+6m 15.7 13.3 58.8 48.6 47.5
+12m 15.7 12.3 58.8 48.6 47.6
Actual 0.71 0.55 1332 1124 1051
+3m 0.70 0.61 1343 1093 1063
LVL
+6m 0.70 0.59 1314 1086 1063
+12m 0.70 0.55 1314 1086 1064
Actual 3.45 2.67 273 231 216
+3m 3.45 3.00 272 222 216
LTL
+6m 3.45 2.92 267 220 216
+12m 3.45 2.72 267 220 216
Actual 4.26 3.29 222 187 175
+3m 4.50 3.91 209 170 165
RON
+6m 4.50 3.81 204 169 165
+12m 4.55 3.58 202 167 164
Actual 1.96 1.51 483 408 381
+3m 1.96 1.70 481 391 381
BGN
+6m 1.96 1.66 471 389 381
+12m 1.96 1.54 471 389 381
Actual 1.96 1.52 481 406 380
+3m 1.75 1.52 537 437 425
TRY
+6m 1.85 1.57 497 411 402
+12m 2.11 1.66 436 360 353
Actual 39.2 30.3 24.1 20.3 19.0
+3m 37.7 32.8 24.9 20.3 19.7
RUB
+6m 36.0 30.5 25.6 21.1 20.7
+12m 36.2 28.5 25.4 21.0 20.6
Actual 10.2 7.90 92.4 78.0 73.0
+3m 9.8 8.50 96.2 78.3 76.1
UAH
+6m 9.3 7.90 98.7 81.5 79.8
+12m 8.6 6.80 106.5 88.0 86.3
Actual 9.6 7.40 98.6 83.2 77.8
+3m 9.1 7.95 102.8 83.7 81.4
ZAR
+6m 9.7 8.25 94.5 78.1 76.4
+12m 11.2 8.80 82.3 68.0 66.7

Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets

8| 23 July 2010
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EMEA Weekly

Macro Forecast, EMEA

Macro forecast, EMEA
Macro Monitors
Private. Fixed Trade Current Industrial Unem- Infla-
1 1 1 1 1 2, 4 2, 4 1 3 1
Year Gdp Cons Inv Export Import Balance acc. prod. ploym tion
Macro Monitor – Hungary, June 25
2009 -4.1 -0.3 -9.2 -14.2 -15.3 5.0 -1.1 -13.2 9.1 1.1 Macro Monitor – Czech Republic, June 25
Czech Republic 2010 0.5 0.2 -3.1 12.3 7.7 7.1 1.3 10.7 10.1 1.5
Macro Monitor – Turkey, July 14
2011 2.4 0.7 6.4 14.7 11.1 8.1 2.1 9.4 10.7 2.0
Macro Monitor – Poland, June 25
2009 -14.1 -18.8 34.4 -11.3 -26.7 -4.1 4.6 -26.2 15.5 -0.1
Macro Monitor – Estonia, July 21
Estonia 2010 0.3 -2.9 -2.6 20.8 15.0 -5.4 1.6 15.4 20.6 2.5

2011 2.0 0.9 5.7 13.5 12.8 -9.1 -1.3 20.5 17.9 3.3 Source: Danske Markets

2009 -6.3 -7.6 -6.3 -8.9 -15.2 4.3 0.2 -17.8 10.8 4.2

Hungary 2010 -1.9 -2.0 -2.2 12.1 11.2 5.7 1.8 9.5 13.6 5.2

2011 3.0 2.6 4.1 8.9 7.3 5.6 1.3 9.0 14.7 4.6

2009 -18.3 -24.7 -38.0 -15.7 -36.1 - 3.0 - 17.3 3.7

Latvia 2010 -4.7 -3.4 1.3 -0.5 3.5 - 4.5 - 20.0 -0.9

2011 1.6 2.1 7.0 7.5 11.9 0.4 18.0 0.8

2009 -15.5 -17.8 -40.1 -17.9 -32.4 - 0.7 - 14.0 4.5

Lithuania 2010 -3.7 -2.2 -3.2 2.0 2.9 - 1.0 - 18.0 0.3

2011 2.4 3.7 9.4 12.5 11.0 - 0.0 - 17.0 2.3

2009 1.7 2.3 -0.5 -10.6 -14.2 -1.0 -1.6 -3.6 11.9 3.5

Poland 2010 3.0 4.7 -10.6 4.4 3.1 -0.6 -1.1 12.6 12.4 2.6

2011 4.0 3.5 8.5 6.9 5.5 0.2 -0.5 10.0 12.4 3.0

2009 -7.9 -7.8 -15.9 -4.2 -29.8 7.4 3.8 -10.9 8.2 11.7

Russia 2010 3.6 4.5 1.0 24.0 19.0 7.5 4.5 5.2 7.9 7.0

2011 4.1 5.9 7.0 13.0 22.0 6.9 3.1 3.6 7.3 9.2

2009 -4.7 -2.0 -18.8 -5.3 -13.2 -4.0 -2.2 -8.9 - 6.3

Turkey 2010 7.9 6.7 17.9 6.6 12.6 -5.3 -4.7 10.5 - 9.0

2011 5.9 5.7 8.6 14.0 11.2 -4.7 -3.4 4.0 - 7.8

1) Average % y/y 2) % of GDP 3) % of total work force 4) Export and import prices

Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets

9| 23 July 2010
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EMEA Weekly

Emerging Markets Contacts

Emerging Markets Research

Lars Christensen +45 45 12 85 30 larch@danskebank.dk
Flemming Jegbjærg Nielsen +45 45 12 85 35 flemm@danskebank.dk
Violeta Klyviene +370 5 2156992 vkly@danskebank.com
Stanislava Pravdova +45 45 12 80 71 spra@danskebank.dk
Jens Nærvig Pedersen +45 45 12 84 98 jenpe@danskebank.dk
Sanna Elina Kurronen +358 10 546 7573 kurr@danskebank.com

Emerging Markets Sales, Danske Markets

Erik Rasmussen +45 45 14 32 47 eras@danskebank.dk

Global Retail SME, FX

Stig Hansen +45 45 14 60 86 sh@danskebank.dk
Flemming Winther +45 45 14 68 24 flw@danskebank.dk

Trading FX, Fixed Income, Danske Markets

Frank Sandbæk Vig +45 45 14 67 96 fsv@danskebank.dk
Thomas Manthorpe +45 45 14 69 68 tman@danskebank.dk
Markku Anttila +358 10 513 8705 markku.anttila@sampopankki.fi
Perttu Tuomi +358 10 513 8738 perttu.tuomi@sampopankki.fi

Danske Bank Poland, Warsaw

Maciej Semeniuk +48 22 33 77 114 msem@pl.danskebank.com
Bartłomiej Dzieniecki +48 22 33 77 112 bdz@pl.danskebank.com

Danske Markets Baltics

Howard Wilkinson +358 50 374 559 howard.wilkinson@danskebank.com
Martins Strazds +371 6707 2245 martins.strazds@danskebanka.lv
Giedre Geciauskiene +370 5215 6180 giedre.geciauskiene@danskebankas.lt
Lauri Palmaru +372 675 2464 lauri.palmaru@sampopank.ee

ZAO Danske Bank Russia, Saint-Petersburg Treasury Department

Mikko Pitkänen +7 812 332 73 06 mikko.pitkanen@danskebank.ru
Vladimir Biserov +7 812 332 73 04 vladimir.biserov@danskebank.ru
Darja Kounina +7 812 332 73 04 darja.kounina@danskebank.ru

All EM research is available on Bloomberg DMEM

10 | 23 July 2010
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EMEA Weekly

Disclosure
This research report has been prepared by Danske Research, which is part of Danske Markets, a division of
Danske Bank. Danske Bank is under supervision by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. The author of
this research report is Lars Christensen, Chief Analyst.

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Expected updates
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First date of publication

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