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Lisa Charlotte Rost @lisacrost

Why you don’t believe in facts,


and how to fix it
Kriegstote
Ihr Hochschul-Barometer 2014
1950
6 mm
360.000 Todesopfer
185 x 16

SPIEGEL
Format: tz
Ihre Hochschule, Hochschule Augsburg , ist eine von 655 Hochschulen in Deutschland. Am Hochschulba- fü r 5
o P la
Irgendw 0 mm Text
lasse n
rometer 2014 haben sich 48 weitere Hochschulen beteiligt. 19 dieser Hochschulen sind Staatliche Fach-
1970

hochschulen wie die Hochschule Augsburg. 5 der 48 Hochschulen sitzen wie Ihre Hochschule in Bayern . 280.000 Todesopfer

Bloomberg Im Folgenden werden der Mittelwert dieser Hochschulen mit Ihren Angaben vergliechen:

FRÜHER WAR ALLES SCHLECHTER


1960
1980

Businessweek
2007
Stifterindex negativ Wir leben in friedlichen Zeiten positiv
84.000
Todesopfer

11,7
2015: Die Welt scheint in Kriegen zu versinken. Ukraine, Syrien, das Kalifat, Boko Haram, Gaza, Lybien. Oft hört und liest man jetzt
den Satz, „so schlimm war es noch nie“, von Freunden, am TV, in der Zeitung. Das stimmt aber nicht. Es war im Gegenteil so gut wie
mehr Infos immer schlimmer. Das erkennt, wer den Ratschlag Bill Clintons beherzigt: „Don‘t follow the headlines, follow the trendlines!“ Nicht
den Schlagzeilen sei zu folgen, sondern den Entwicklungskurven. Denn zählt man die Toten, so zeigt sich, dass es niemals friedlicher
war auf der Welt als in diesem Jahrtausend. Das liegt vor allem daran, dass die fürchterlichste Form von Krieg, jener zwischen Staa-
ten, komplett verschwunden ist – hoffentlich für immer. Der letzte Konflikt dieser Art war der Koreakrieg. Aus der großen Kriegsto-
tenkurve seit 1945, die einem auslaufenden Gebirge ähnelt, ragen der Vietnamkrieg und die Afghanistan-Kriege heraus. Richtig und

ZEIT Online
Lageindex beunruhigend ist, dass die Zahl der Opfer in den letzten Jahren wieder gestiegen ist, wofür vor allem der Syrien-Konflikt verantwort-
lich ist. Trotzdem ist die Gegenwart nicht annähernd so blutig wie es die 1990er-, 1980er-, 1970er- und 1960er-Jahre waren.

8,9 mehr Infos


Dachzeile meant atque ea quae ad effe- attingit etiam ab Sequanis et inductus coniurationem nobi-
MEL-Überschrift minandos animos pertinent Helvetiis flumen 1 Blatt. litatis fecit et civitati persua-
important, proximique sunt Rhenum, vergit ad septen- sit ut de finibus suis cum om-

Tagesspiegel
Gallia est omnis divisa in par- Germanis, qui trans Rhenum triones. Belgae ab extremis nibus copiis exirent: perfacile
Erwartungsindex tes tres, quarum unam inco-
lunt Belgae, aliam Aquitani,
incolunt, quibuscum conti-
nenter bellum gerunt.
Galliae finibus oriuntur, per-
tinent ad inferiorem partem
esse, cum virtute omnibus
praestarent, totius Galliae
tertiam qui ipsorum lingua Qua de causa Helvetii quo- fluminis Rheni, spectant in imperio potiri. Id hoc facilius

14,6 mehr Infos


Celtae, nostra Galli appellan-
tur. Hi omnes lingua, institu-
tis, legibus inter se differunt.
que reliquos Gallos virtute
praecedunt, quod fere coti-
dianis proeliis cum Germanis
septentrionem et orientem
solem. Aquitania a Garumna
flumine ad Pyrenaeos montes
iis persuasit, quod undique
loci natura Helvetii continen-
tur: una ex parte flumine
Gallos ab Aquitanis Garumna contendunt, cum aut suis fini- et eam partem Oceani quae Rheno latissimo atque altissi-
flumen, a Belgis Matrona et bus eos prohibent aut ipsi in est ad Hispaniam pertinet; mo, qui agrum Helvetium a
Sequana dividit. Horum om- eorum finibus bellum gerunt. spectat inter occasum solis et Germanis dividit; altera ex

Technologist
nium fortissimi sunt Belgae, [Eorum una, pars, quam Gal- septentriones.] Apud Helve- parte monte Iura altissimo,
propterea quod a cultu atque los obtinere dictum est, initi- tios longe nobilissimus fuit et qui est inter Sequanos et Hel-
humanitate provinciae longis- um capit a flumine Rhodano, ditissimus Orgetorix. vetios; tertia lacu Lemanno
sime absunt, minimeque ad continetur Garumna flumine, Is M. Messala, [et P.] M. Piso- et flumine Rhodano, qui pro-

FOTOS:
eos mercatores saepe com- Oceano, finibus Belgarum, ne consulibus regni cupiditate vinciam nostram ab Helvetiis

TeilIndizes 888 DER SPIEGEL XX / 2014 Ein Impressum mit dem Verzeichnis der Namenskürzel aller Redakteure finden Sie unter www.spiegel.de/kuerzel

NPR Autonomie
Lage

Autonomie
Erwartung

Finanzierung
Lage

Finanzierung
Erwartung

Ausstattung
Lage

Ausstattung
Erwartung

Wichtigkeit verschiedener Aufgaben für die Hochschule

Größte Abweichung: Sie Hochschule Augsburg


bewerten den Punkt Anwend-
ungsorientierte Forschung
mit 10 Prozentpunkten mehr
als alle Hochschulen im
Durchschnitt. Alle Hochschulen

Alle Staatlichen Fachhochschulen

mehr Infos
A B C
Where false Why it is so hard How to believe
beliefs come from. to get rid of them. more true things.
A B C
Where false Why it is so hard How to believe
beliefs come from. to get rid of them. more true things.
A B C
Where false Why it is so hard How to believe
beliefs come from. to get rid of them. more true things.
A B C
Where false Why it is so hard How to believe
beliefs come from. to get rid of them. more true things.

1 Misinformation
1 Misinformation
A B C
Where false Why it is so hard How to believe
beliefs come from. to get rid of them. more true things.

1 Misinformation
2 Tribalization
2 Tribalization
Marker of Identity
2 Tribalization
Show whose team you on
2 Tribalization
Show whose team you on
2 Tribalization
See who you can trust
2 Tribalization All members of the U.S. House of Representatives from 1959–2011 in the
colors of their party. Members closer to each other agree on more votes.
See who you can trust

Andris et al: “The Rise of Partisanship and Super-Cooperators in the U.S. House of Representatives”, 2015
2 Tribalization
See who you can trust

http://www.people-press.org/2016/06/22/partisanship-and-political-animosity-in-2016/
2 Tribalization
See who you can trust

It doesn’t matter if
you understand what
you believe.
How does climate change work....exactly?
A B C
Where false Why it is so hard How to believe
beliefs come from. to get rid of them. more true things.

1 Misinformation
2 Tribalization
3 Fallacies
3 Fallacies
Anecdotal evidence
3 Fallacies
Anecdotal evidence
A B C
Where false Why it is so hard How to believe
beliefs come from. to get rid of them. more true things.

1 Misinformation
2 Tribalization
3 Fallacies
A B C
Where false Why it is so hard How to believe
beliefs come from. to get rid of them. more true things.

1 Misinformation 1 We don’t want to


2 Tribalization
3 Fallacies
1 We don’t want to
1 We don’t want to
A B C
Where false Why it is so hard How to believe
beliefs come from. to get rid of them. more true things.

1 Misinformation 1 We don’t want to


2 Tribalization 2 Enough proof
3 Fallacies
3 Enough
Proof
3 Enough
Proof
A B C
Where false Why it is so hard How to believe
beliefs come from. to get rid of them. more true things.

1 Misinformation 1 We don’t want to


2 Tribalization 2 Enough proof
3 Fallacies 3 Confirmation Bias &
Motivated Skepticism
3 Confirmation Bias & Motivated Skepticism
3 Confirmation Bias & Motivated Skepticism
3 Confirmation Bias & Motivated Skepticism
3 Confirmation Bias & Motivated Skepticism
3 Confirmation Bias & Motivated Skepticism
3 Confirmation Bias & Motivated Skepticism
A B C
Where false Why it is so hard How to believe
beliefs come from. to get rid of them. more true things.

1 Misinformation 1 We don’t want to


2 Tribalization 2 Enough proof
3 Fallacies 3 Confirmation Bias &
Motivated Skepticism
4 More information
= stronger belief
4 More information = stronger belief
4 More information = stronger belief
4 More information = stronger belief
4 More information = stronger belief
4 More information = stronger belief
4 More information = stronger belief
4 More information = stronger belief
4 More information = stronger belief
4 More information = stronger belief
4 More information = stronger belief
4 More information = stronger belief
4 More intelligence = stronger belief

There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due


“mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.”
agree more

more intelligent

Kahan et al: “Science Curiosity and Political Information Processing”, 2017


A B C
Where false Why it is so hard How to believe
beliefs come from. to get rid of them. more true things.

1 Misinformation 1 We don’t want to


2 Tribalization 2 Enough proof
3 Fallacies 3 Confirmation Bias &
Motivated Skepticism
4 More information
= stronger belief
5 Close-mindedness
5 Close-mindedness
A B C
Where false Why it is so hard How to believe
beliefs come from. to get rid of them. more true things.

1 Misinformation 1 We don’t want to


2 Tribalization 2 Enough proof
3 Fallacies 3 Confirmation Bias &
Motivated Skepticism
4 More information
= stronger belief
5 Close-mindedness
A B C
Where false Why it is so hard How to believe
beliefs come from. to get rid of them. more true things.

1 Misinformation 1 We don’t want to


2 Tribalization 2 Enough proof
3 Fallacies 3 Confirmation Bias &
Motivated Skepticism
4 More information
= stronger belief
5 Close-mindedness
A B C
Where false Why it is so hard How to believe
beliefs come from. to get rid of them. more true things.

1 Misinformation 1 We don’t want to 1 Convince someone


2 Tribalization 2 Enough proof
3 Fallacies 3 Confirmation Bias &
Motivated Skepticism
4 More information
= stronger belief
5 Close-mindedness
1 Convince someone
1 Convince someone
1 Convince someone
1 Convince someone
1 Convince someone
1 Convince someone
1 Convince someone
A B C
Where false Why it is so hard How to believe
beliefs come from. to get rid of them. more true things.

1 Misinformation 1 We don’t want to 1 Convince someone


2 Tribalization 2 Enough proof 2 Avoid tribalization
3 Fallacies 3 Confirmation Bias &
Motivated Skepticism
4 More information
= stronger belief
5 Close-mindedness
2 Avoid tribalization
Get to know people with other opinions
2 Avoid tribalization
Get to know people with other opinions
2 Avoid tribalization
Build empathy
2 Avoid tribalization
Build empathy
2 Avoid tribalization
A B C
Where false Why it is so hard How to believe
beliefs come from. to get rid of them. more true things.

1 Misinformation 1 We don’t want to 1 Convince someone


2 Tribalization 2 Enough proof 2 Avoid tribalization
3 Fallacies 3 Confirmation Bias & 3 Change our attitude
Motivated Skepticism
4 More information
= stronger belief
5 Close-mindedness
3 Change our attitude
Understand that people are not their beliefs
3 Change our attitude
Understand that people are not their beliefs
3 Change our attitude
Get into the truth-seeking mode
3 Change our attitude
Get into the truth-seeking mode

“individuals can use their reason


for two ends—to form beliefs that
evince who they are, and to form
beliefs that are consistent with the
best available scientific evidence.”

Kahan et al: “Science Curiosity and Political Information Processing”, 2017


3 Change our attitude
Get into the truth-seeking mode

There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due


“mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.”
agree more

more intelligent

Kahan et al: “Science Curiosity and Political Information Processing”, 2017


3 Change our attitude
Get into the truth-seeking mode

There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due


“mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.”
agree more

agree more
more intelligent more curious

Kahan et al: “Science Curiosity and Political Information Processing”, 2017


3 Change our attitude
Get into the truth-seeking mode
3 Change our attitude
Get into the truth-seeking mode
3 Change our attitude
Get into the truth-seeking mode
3 Change our attitude
Show the complexity of “truth”
3 Change our attitude
Show the complexity of “truth”
3 Change our attitude Accurat
Show the complexity of “truth”
3 Change our attitude
Plant doubt
3 Change our attitude
Plant doubt
3 Change our attitude
Plant doubt
3 Change our attitude
Show uncertainty well
3 Change our attitude
Show uncertainty well
3 Change our attitude
Show uncertainty well
A B C
Where false Why it is so hard How to believe
beliefs come from. to get rid of them. more true things.

1 Misinformation 1 We don’t want to 1 Convince someone


2 Tribalization 2 Enough proof 2 Avoid tribalization
3 Fallacies 3 Confirmation Bias & 3 Change our attitude
Motivated Skepticism 4 Show our skin in
4 More information the game
= stronger belief
5 Close-mindedness
4 Show our skin in the game

“Farmers ... have been observed to use information


on climate change to form identity-congruent
beliefs when they are behaving as citizens but
to form truth-convergent ones when they are
engaging in the task of farming, where they have an
end— succeeding as farmers—that can be satisfied
only with that form of information processing.”

Kahan et al: “Science Curiosity and Political Information Processing”, 2017


4 Show our skin in the game
4 Show our skin in the game
4 Show our skin in the game
4 Show our skin in the game
4 Show our skin in the game
4 Show our skin in the game
4 Show our skin in the game
4 Show our skin in the game
4 Show our skin in the game
A B C
Where false Why it is so hard How to believe
beliefs come from. to get rid of them. more true things.

1 Misinformation 1 We don’t want to 1 Convince someone


2 Tribalization 2 Enough proof 2 Avoid tribalization
3 Fallacies 3 Confirmation Bias & 3 Change our attitude
Motivated Skepticism 4 Show our skin in
4 More information the game
= stronger belief
5 Close-mindedness
A B C
Where false Why it is so hard How to believe
beliefs come from. to get rid of them. more true things.

1 Misinformation 1 We don’t want to 1 Convince someone


2 Tribalization 2 Enough proof 2 Avoid tribalization
3 Fallacies 3 Confirmation Bias & 3 Change our attitude
... Motivated Skepticism 4 Show our skin in
4 More information the game
= stronger belief ...
5 Close-mindedness
...
?
Strong opinions,
loosely held.
Strong opinions,
loosely held.
Strong opinions,
loosely held.
Lisa Charlotte Rost

@lisacrost
lisacharlotterost.de
lisacharlotterost@gmail.com

A giant thank you to


Raphaël de Courville (@sableRaph)
for explaining me epistomology
on a daily basis, and
Joe Edelman (@edelwax) for the
pointer to skin in the game.

If you liked this talk at least a bit,


pleeease read this wonderful article:
timharford.com/2017/03/
the-problem-with-facts

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