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Political Change in Russia and China

Photography by Camphor

This article looks at the link between about the author

economic globalisation and democratic transition,
with respect to contemporary Russia and China.
Despite the assumption that economic liberalisation
leads to democratisation, neither Russia nor China
have made the transition to successful liberal
democracy. The experience of both states suggests
that there is no definite or direct link between
economic liberalisation and democratisation.
Introduction
Nick Calla is a fourth-year student in
the departments of Political Science and
Economics at Simon Fraser University,
Vancouver.
in this issue
Working for China's Environmental NGOs
Working for China's Environmental
NGOs
David Vance Wagner illustrates the finer
points of working for a Chinese ENGO

Globalisation processes have significant implications for

domestic economic and political transformation. An The Dangers of Chinese Nationalism
analysis of globalisations impact on certain states may
serve to predict changes for other states that are similar
politically, culturally, or geographically. Russia and China
The Dangers of Chinese
are two such nations. Since they share important Nationalism
elements both are geographically large nations that
have made the transition from predominantly centrally-
plannedto largely capitalist economies it is instructive to

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compare them, as both face the present uncertainties It may not be the right idea to start provoking
China before the upcoming Games: Thoughts
and future prospects of globalisation. from Zhang Quanyi

Despite an assumption among political theorists that

economic liberalisation leads to democratisation, neither
Political Change in Russia and China
Russia nor China have made the transition to liberal
democracy. If economic globalisation involves little more
than the integration of the world capitalist
economy, democracy cannot be viewed as its definite or Political Change in Russia and
China
assured outcome. The experience of Russia and China
suggests that there is no definite or direct link between Despite the economic gains of globalization,
economic liberalisation and liberal democracy. An economic liberalization has not translated
into democratization in Russia and China
examination of Russia and Chinas political culture and
level of modernisation demonstrates that the presence of
intervening variables must be considered also. Al-Qaida's American Connection

I. Economic Liberalisation
Economic Reform in Russia Al-Qaida's American Connection
How responsible is the USA for Al-Qaeda's
The process of economic globalisation was facilitated by creation?
the demise of the Soviet Union in 1989. The collapse of
communism created the opportunity for the movement of
capital, labour and goods across national borders while
increasing international economic competition. 1 In
accordance with the neo-liberal policies of the
Washington Consensus, a set of economic policy Part of the Global Pie
measures designed for market economies, post-
How are nationalist parties using the
communist countries were pressured by the West to processes of globalization to make political
quickly liberalise their economies, privatise state assets, headway?

and introduce drastic financial austerity measures. 2 This

rapid transition process, in countries possessing neither a
democratic nor capitalist infrastructure, raised the
recent articles
dangerous possibility of the transition economies
emerging somewhere between two economic systems.

Russias economic reforms resulted in significant

consequences. Economic changes were reflected not only Forecasting the Effects of Food
in changes to the system of production but also in labour Price Inflation (in Egypt and
Yemen)
markets, which exhibited a rise in unemployment and a
3 Rising food prices have the potential to
fall in real wages. Steep recession occurred as Russia
generate a new Arab Spring in Egypt and
entered a phase of high inflation, and, most significantly, Yemen.
the populations living standards decreased dramatically. November 25, 2012
Russias government was successful at suppressing
inflation and stimulating economic growth in a healthy
manner. However, many aspects of Russias economy
currently suggest that it is moving towards a corporatist
market, characterised by corruption and driven by a class
of oligarchs whose primary goal is to increase their Syria: Analogies with Afghanistan
personal wealth.4 The influence of economic are Wide of the Mark
globalisation forces has not created an open free market Syria risks becoming a post-Gaddafi Libya,
in Russia; instead, it has consolidated a corrupt class of not post-Soviet Afghanistan
elites that was largely in place under the former Soviet November 3, 2012
5
system.

Economic Reform in China

China originally modelled its political and economic
6 Erdogan: The Middle Man Stands
structures on those of the Soviet Union. The Soviet
model of development and its emphasis on heavy Alone
industry, collectivised agriculture, and central planning of
production prevailed in China from 1949 until 1978.

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Following Maos death, however, a reform agenda Turkey's PM is facing the consequences of
playing the middle man between East and
initiated by Deng Xiaoping significantly altered the course West
of Chinese politics. Dengs reforms had the primary October 25, 2012
objectives of economic development and the
reintegration of China into the global economy. 7
Although the concept of globalisation had not yet Fixing Abu Ghraib
developed, Dengs reform agenda nonetheless
manifested a global vision: to aid Chinas modernisation
process through economic benefits gained from Fixing Abu Ghraib
8
expanding global exchange and trade. The initial Now in Afghanistan, Col. Gary Anderson
phases of Dengs reforms involved maintaining state reflects on the final push to reconstruct Iraq
control of the economy while simultaneously allowing October 23, 2012
market elements to develop in agriculture and retail
distribution, as well as preserving central-planning in
major industries while allowing smaller enterprises to
openly sell anything produced beyond state-imposed
targets. 9 The final stages of Dengs economic reforms
during the 1990s involved a greater degree of separation
Bad Luck Versus Worse Luck
of government and economy. The market system in The economic success of Obamas first term
China became firmly anchored and the Chinese economy October 3, 2012
10
began to more closely resemble a market economy.

Chinas economic reforms have proven largely

successful. Its impressive accomplishments are further
highlighted when contrasted against the post-communist
difficulties experienced by Russia. Not only has China copyright
developed a successful market economy, but the shift to
market principles has in turn propelled state reforms and
11
led to improvements in many areas of public life. In
addition to having relieved the shortage of public goods We published this article under a
Creative Commons License.
that had been common under Communist rule, market
provisions now allow for choice, quality and efficiency. You are free:
Due to the success of its economic re-structuring and the
opening of its markets to foreign investors, China is now to Share to copy, distribute,
display, and perform the work
a major global actor capable of affecting international
political and economic stability.12 to Remix to make derivative
works
II. Political Reform Under the following conditions:
In addition to economic consequences, globalisation Attribution You must attribute
affects political outcomes also. A primary focus of the work in the manner specified
globalisation is the manner in which economic by the author or licensor (but not
development, arising from the interconnectedness of in any way that suggests that they
endorse you or your use of the
global markets, is expected to lead to identifiable
work).
13
changes in domestic political structures. The Noncommercial You may not
commonly held assumption is that economic liberalisation use this work for commercial
will lead to political liberalisation and subsequently purposes.
Share Alike If you alter,
democracy. Despite the transition to market economies,
transform, or build upon this
however, neither Russia nor China have made the work, you may distribute the
transition to liberal democracy. resulting work only under the
same or similar license to this one.
Political Reform in Russia
Since 1991, Russia has actively reproduced structures
and institutions characteristic of Western democracies in
response to globalisation.14 The growing number of
freely held elections is often cited as the most notable of
these. Free elections have been successfully held within
the Russian Federation since 1993, and, with minor
exceptions have reputedly been fair. The completion of a

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countrys first competitive elections generally signals the
15
end of a democratic transition.

Russias political system, however, is not representative

of liberal democracy. While it is agreed that some form
of democracy did emerge in Russia following the demise
of communism, the current political system displays
elements only of an electoral democracy.16 Pluralist
institutions in Russia are currently weak, and interest
groups are restricted in their freedom of expression. The
political institutions capable of addressing these issues
a strong parliament, an effective party system, and an
17
independent judiciary, do not exist. Only certain
elements of Western liberal democracy have been
successfully adopted by successive Russian governments
following the end of communist rule, primarily the
18
elections of representative bodies to parliament. The
elements that constitute the basis of liberalism, however
freedom of association, freedom of expression, political
accountability, and rule of law have eroded since the
19
end of Gorbachevs rule in 1991.

Political Reform in China

Interest in democratic reform in China has existed since
the launch of Deng Xiaopings economic reforms in
20
1978. The most significant change under Dengs
leadership has been the retreat from revolutionary
21
totalitarian rule. To achieve long-term stability and
industrial modernisation, Deng transformed the Chinese
Communist Party into a legally-regulated regime that
promised a more liberal political system.22 Among the
political reforms implemented by Deng are the holding of
competitive elections at the local level. In 1979, the
Communist Party first allowed citizens to directly elect
delegates to local congresses.23 Under Dengs policy of
promoting democracy and political liberalisation, the
government also relaxed its control over the media, and
has recently taken steps to accommodate international
appeal for improvement of its domestic human rights
24
situation.

Despite these political reforms, however, China today is

by no means a liberal democracy. Although the term
democracy has been used by recent Chinese leaders, the
Chinese Communist Party does not intend to introduce a
representative government that is constituted through
free and competitive elections under the rule of law, a
fundamental element of Western liberal democracy.25
Both direct and competitive elections at the district levels
have been widely practiced; however these elections are
not competitive and are reportedly manipulated by the
Communist Party.26 In 1982, the regime promised a
more liberal political system; however, emphasis has
shifted from promoting political democracy to liberalising
the socialist economy.

III. Theories of Democratic Transition

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Many question why Russia and China have not fared
better as a result of economic liberalisation and why the
transition to capitalism has failed to create a stable liberal
democracy. Such political changes, however, are not the
result of a single variable, but of the interaction of
external and domestic factors. Understanding democratic
transition thus requires examining how external and
domestic variables interact. Both culturalist and
modernisation theorists view democratic transition as a
function of internal, rather than exclusively external,
factors.

Culturalist Theory of Democratic Transition

Researchers Almond and Verba argue that basic
structures of democracy are influenced by the political
culture of a countrys population. 27 Cultural theorists
argue that the Russian people are predisposed to
paternalistic, authoritarian rule and lack the civic culture
28
that could properly support a democratic regime.
Analyst Mikhail Molchanov argues that the majority of
Russian people do not consider the post-communist
tradition to be something normal either in its design or
outcome. Instead, Russian citizens consider their lives
disrupted by an externally-generated economic shock.29
In a country where the state has been largely dismantled
over two decades of economic liberalisation, the building
of a functioning democracy may appear to citizens as less
of a priority than regaining the stability and economic
security they were accustomed to under communist rule.
From this perspective, Russias inability to institutionalise
a liberal democracy over the previous two decades
demonstrates continuity with both its communist legacy
and authoritarian political culture.

Cultural theorists similarly argue that political culture is

significant in explaining the absence of democracy in
China. In a strong democratic culture, the public is more
likely to believe in and support democratic norms and
forces. Chinas Confucian society, however, is largely
undemocratic. Confucian culture sets up a strictly
hierarchical structure for the society, which translates
30
into rule by moral example rather than rule of law. In a
Confucian society such as China, there is no equivalent to
the notion of human rights that is predominant in liberal
democracies. Although Chinese culture has evolved
throughout history, group consciousness in China
remains strong as does the emphasis on hierarchical
structure. Given Chinas geographic size and large
population, the Confucian social order may be more
significant than other factors in impeding the transition
to liberal democracy.

Modernisation Theory
Modernisation theory attributes the absence of
democracy in developing nations to a lack of
industrialisation. In explaining the absence of liberal
democracy in Russia, modernisation theorists argue that
Russia has not yet developed sufficiently to either create
or fully sustain a democratic society. Such analysts argue
that the high levels of average income and

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industrialisation necessary to facilitate democratic
consolidation were absent both in the former Soviet
Union and in present-day Russia.31 Modernisation
theorists contend that the transition to capitalism and
democracy must occur in sequence: the transition to a
functioning market economy must occur first, followed by
democratic transition, in order to ensure the success of
32
both. In the absence of a fully-modernised economy,
society, or industry, analysts speculate that political rule
in Russia will gravitate towards authoritarianism.

Similarly, Chinas political culture, social order and

history have each affected its level of development and
modernisation, both of which are considered factors in
democratisation. Although China has performed well
economically, the population remains relatively poor.33
Chinas uneven economic development has benefited
urban centres while leaving rural areas largely
disadvantaged. Consequently, there has been a turn in
rural areas against economic liberalisation.34 Other,
smaller Confucian societies such as Taiwan and South
Korea have successfully made the transition to
democracy. However, Chinas geographic size,
population and rising disparity in wealth make it unlikely
that China will soon be able to achieve the level of
modernisation required to make the transition to liberal
democracy.

Conclusion
The experiences of Russia and China indicate that there is
no direct or definite link between economic liberalisation
and transition to liberal democracy. For Russia,
globalisation has not brought universal prosperity or
ready access to world markets, but economic hardship
and a growing sense of disillusionment among the
populace. Although the Soviet Union lacked traditional
liberal freedoms, it did provide a high degree of social
equity. When communist rule ended, however, neither
liberal democracy nor a successful market economy
emerged in its place. Economic liberalisation also failed
to result in the creation of a strong middle class to press
for liberal freedoms. Instead, the relationship between
the state and society had been altered, and any sense of
equality or national pride was lost in Russias sudden
transition to capitalism. As such, the likely outcome for
Russia in the near future is neither a liberal democracy
nor an authoritarian dictatorship, but a regime
somewhere in between.

In contrast, globalisation has had a more positive effect

on China. Theorists indicate that few in China
would elect to return to a command economy, with its
perennial shortages of social goods. The likelihood of
any democratic transition in China, however, is minimal.
Among other factors, China simply does not have a social
order in place to facilitate or encourage democratiation.
It is possible that a social order more conducive to
facilitating democracy may result both from further
economic development and from cultural change arising
from Chinas increased global openness. Such
influences, however, may take many years to have effect.

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Although it is true among already-established
democracies that a high average income contributes to
political stability, the growing number of affluent
authoritarian states strongly suggests that economic
growth alone is not sufficient to lead to democracy.

No one factor or analysis can explain why Russia and

China have not followed a path towards democratisation
similar to that of Western Europe and North America.
Russia and China share unique characteristics that led
each to adopt communism; those same characteristics,
subsequently, have impeded the transition of each
country towards a functioning liberal democracy.

1. Jeff Haynes, Tracing Connections between

Comparative Politics and Globalisation, Third World
Quarterly 24, no. 6 (2003), p. 1041.

2. Alexander Nekipelov, The Washington Consensus

and Russian Economic Policy, International Social
Science Journal 52, no. 166 (December 2000), p.
467.

3. Haynes, p. 1041.

4. Grigory Yavlinsky, Russias Phony Capitalism,

Foreign Affairs 77, no. 3 (1998), p. 69.

5. ibid.

6. Mikhail A. Molchanov, Russia and Globalisation,

Perspectives on Global Development & Technology
4, no. 3/4 (2005), p. 420.

7. Linda Wong, Market Reforms, Globalisation and

Social Justice in China, Journal of Contemporary
China 13, no. 38 (2004): 154.

8. ibid.

9. Molchanov, p. 421.

10. Wong, p. 155.

11. ibid., p. 159.

12. Jae Ho Chung, Chinas Reforms at Twenty-five:

Challenges for the New Leadership, China: An
International Journal 1, no. 1 (2003), p. 120.

13. Haynes, p. 1039.

14. V. Lapkin and V. Pantin, Assimilation of Democratic

Institutions and Values by the Ukrainian and
Russian Masses: Preliminary Results, Russian Social
Science Review 47, no. 3 (2006), p. 12.

15. Valerie Bunce, Rethinking Recent Democratisation,

in SFU Custom Courseware, POL-231 Fall 2006, ed.
Sandra MacLean (Vancouver: Simon Fraser
University, 2006), p. 275.

16. Timothy J. Colton and Michael McFaul, Russian

Democracy Under Putin, Problems of Post-
Communism 50, no. 4 (2003), p. 12.

17. Michael McFaul, Lessons from Russias Protracted

Transition from Communist Rule, Political Science
Quarterly 114, no. 1 (1999), p. 104.

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18. A.V. Lukin, The Transitional Period in Russia,
Russian Social Science Review 41, no. 4 (July/August
2004), http://web.ebscohost.com.proxy.lib.sfu.ca/.

19. ibid.

20. John Fuh-sheng Hsieh, Democratising China,

Journal of Asian & African Studies 38, no. 4/5
(2003), p. 378.

21. Carlos Wing-Hung Lo, Political Liberation in the

Peoples Republic of China, East Asia: An
International Quarterly 17, no. 4 (1999), http://
web.ebscohost.com.proxy.lib.sfu.ca/.

22. ibid.

23. ibid.

24. ibid.

25. ibid.

26. Hsieh, p. 378

27. Mikhail V. Beliaev, Presidential Power and

Consolidation of New Post-Communist
Democracies, Comparative Political Studies 39, no.
3 (2006), p. 388.

28. McFaul, p. 111.

29. Molchanov, p. 404.

30. Hsieh, p. 381.

31. Beliaev, p. 388.

32. Timothy J. Colton and Michael McFaul, p. 12.

33. . Hsieh, p. 385.

34. Wong, p. 168.

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