Cuc Cch mng Cng

nghip Ln th t

Klaus Schwab

Ngi dch: ng Bch Ngc

Trn Th M Anh
 MC LC

Li m u 1

1. Cuc Cch mng Cng nghip Ln th t 4

1.1. Bi cnh lch s 4
1.2. Thay i su sc v h thng 6

2. Cc Nhn t Thc y 10
2.1. Cc xu th ln 10
2.1.1. Vt l 10
2.1.2. K thut s 12
2.1.3. Sinh hc 14

2.2. im bng pht 18

3. Tc ng 20
3.1. Kinh t 20
3.1.1. Tng trng 20
3.1.2. Vic lm 24
3.1.3. Bn cht ca vic lm 33

3.2. Doanh nghip 36

3.2.1 K vng ca khch hng 38
3.2.2 Nhng sn phm c nng cao cht lngnh d liu 40
3.2.3 i mi trong hp tc 41
3.2.4 Cc m hnh iu hnh mi 41

3.3 Quc gia v ton cu 48

3.3.1 Cc chnh ph 49
3.3.2 Cc quc gia, khu vc v thnh ph 53
3.3.3 An ninh Quc t 58

3.4 X hi 67
3.4.1 Bt bnh ng v tng lp trung lu 67
3.4.2 Cng ng 69

3.5. C nhn 72
3.5.1. Bn sc, o l v o c 73
3.5.2. Kt ni con ngi 75
3.5.3. Qun l Thng tin Cng cng v C nhn 76

Con ng Pha trc 79

Li cm n 86
Ph lc: Bin i Su sc 88
1. Cng Ngh Cy Ghp trn C th Ngi 89
2. Hin dinS 91
3. nh mt Tr thnh Phng tin Giao tip mi 92
4. Thit b eo trn ngi kt ni Internet 95
5. M hnh in ton Phn tn rng khp 97
6. Siu My tnh B ti 99
7. Lu tr cho Tt c 103
8. Mng li Vn vt Kt ni Internet 105
9. Ngi nh Kt ni 109
10. Cc Thnh ph Thng minh 111
11. D liu Ln cho Nhng Quyt nh 113
12. Nhng Chic Xe Khng Ngi li 114
13. Tr tu Nhn to v Trnh Ra Quyt nh 117
14. Tr Thng minh Nhn to AI v cc Cng vic Bn giy 119
15. Ngi my v Dch v 122
16. Bitcoin v u mi phn phi Blockchain 124
17. Nn Kinh t Chia s 125
18. Chnh ph v u mi phn phi (Blockchain) 128
19. In v Sn xut s dng cng ngh 3D 129
20. Cng ngh In 3D v Sc khe con ngi 132
21. Cng ngh in 3D v Cc Sn phm Tiu dng 134
22. Con ngi c Thit k [103] 136
23. Cng ngh thn kinh Neurotechnologies [104] 138

Notes 141
 Li m u

Trong v vn thch thc a dng v th v m chng ta phi i mt ngy nay, thch thc
ln nht v quan trng nht l lm th no nm bt v nh hnh c cuc cch mng
cng ngh mi, cuc cch mng chc chn ko theo s bin i ca nhn loi. Chng ta
ang ng trc thm mt cuc cch mng s lm thay i cn bn cch chng ta sng, lm
vic, v lin h vi nhau. Ti cho l cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t ny s khng
ging vi bt c iu g nhn loi tng tri qua c v quy m, phm vi v phc tp ca
n.
Chng ta vn cha nm bt c y tc v phm vi nh hng ca cuc cch mng
mi ny. Kh nng hng t ngi c kt ni thng qua cc thit b di ng vn s hu
nhng tnh nng cha tng c trong tc x l, dung lng lu tr v tip cn cc kin
thc l khng gii hn. Hoc ngh v s hi t ng kinh ngc ca nhng t ph cng ngh
mi ni, bao gm cc lnh vc trn quy m rng ln c th k n nh tr thng minh nhn
to (AI), r bt, mng li vn vt kt ni internet (Internet of things IOT), cc phng
tin khng ngi li, cng ngh in 3D, cng ngh nano, cng ngh sinh hc, khoa hc vt
liu, lu tr nng lng v my tnh lng t. Nhiu cng ngh trong s ang giai on
trng nc nhng t c bc ngot trong s pht trin bi chng da vo nhau v
tng cng ln nhau bng s kt hp gia cc cng ngh ca th gii vt l, k thut s v
sinh hc.
Chng ta ang chng kin nhng bin i su sc trn tt c cc ngnh cng nghip, nh
du bng s xut hin ca cc m hnh kinh doanh mi, s ph v [1] ca cc m hnh hin
ti v s nh hnh li h thng sn xut, tiu th, vn chuyn v giao nhn. V mt x hi,
mt s thay i h hnh (paradigm shift) cng din ra trong cch chng ta lm vic v giao
tip, cng nh cch chng ta th hin mnh, tip cn thng tin v gii tr. Tng t nh vy,
cc chnh ph v cc t chc ang c nh hnh li, mt s trong phi k n nh h
thng gio dc, y t, giao thng vn ti. Nhng cch thc mi trong vic s dng cng ngh
thay i hnh vi v cc h thng sn xut, tiu th ca chng ta cng thc y tim nng
h tr qu trnh ti to v bo tn mi trng t nhin, ch khng phi l to ra cc chi ph
n di hnh thc ngoi ng.
Nhng bin i ny mang tnh lch s c v quy m, tc v phm vi nh hng ca n.
Khi nhng bt n su sc xung quanh vic pht trin v p dng cc cng ngh mi ni ng
ngha vi vic chng ta vn cha bit nhng bin i gy ra bi cuc cch mng cng
nghip ny s din ra nh th no, phc tp v s lin h ln nhau gia cc khu vc ng
rng tt c cc bn lin quan ca x hi ton cu chnh ph, doanh nghip, gii hc gi, v
x hi dn s c trch nhim lm vic cng nhau hiu r hn v xu hng mi ni ny.

1
Chia s s hiu bit c bit quan trng nu chng ta mun nh hnh mt tng lai chung
phn nh nhng mc tiu v gi tr chung. Chng ta cn phi c mt gc nhn chia s ton
din v ton cu v vic cng ngh thay i cuc sng ca chng ta v ca nhng th h
tng lai nh th no, v n ang nh hnh li cc bi cnh kinh t, x hi, vn ha v nhn
loi m chng ta ang sng ra sao.

Nhng bin i ny su sc n mc, t gc ca lch s loi ngi, cha tng c mt s

ha hn no hoc ri ro tim tng no ln hn. Tuy nhin, ti lo ngi rng nhng ngi ra
quyt nh thng b mc kt trong t duy tuyn tnh truyn thng (v thiu s t ph) hoc
ch qu nhiu n nhng mi bn tm trc mt ngn cn h c c nhng suy ngh
mang tnh chin lc v cc lc gy nn s v v i mi vn ang nh hnh tng lai
ca chng ta.

Ti cng nhn thy r rng l mt s hc gi v chuyn gia cho rng s pht trin m ti
ang ni n ch n thun l mt phn ca cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th ba. Tuy
nhin, c ba l do cng c nim tin ca ti rng cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t ang
din ra, l:

Tc : Tri vi nhng cuc cch mng trc y, cuc cch mng ny tin trin vi mt
tc theo cp s ly tha ch khng phi l tc tuyn tnh. y l kt qu ca mt th
gii a din, kt ni su sc ni m chng ta ang sng v thc t l cng ngh mi lun
sinh ra nhng cng ngh mi hn v tn tin hn.

Phm vi v chiu su: Cuc cch mng ny da trn cuc cch mng s v kt hp nhiu
cng ngh dn n nhng thay i cha c tin l trong m hnh kinh t, kinh doanh, x hi,
v c nhn. N khng ch thay i mc ch lm vic v cch thc thc hin, m cn thay
i chnh con ngi chng ta.

Tc ng h thng: N bao gm s chuyn i ca ton b h thng, trn khp (v gia)

cc quc gia, cc cng ty, cc ngnh cng nghip v ton th x hi.

Khi vit cun sch ny, mc ch ca ti l mang n mt cun sch hng dn v cuc
cng nghip ln th t n l g, n s em ti nhng g, n s nh hng n chng ta nh
th no, v cn phi lm g khai thc n cho li ch chung. Cun sch ny dnh cho tt c
nhng ai quan tm n tng lai ca chng ta, nhng ngi c giao trng trch tn dng
cc c hi ca s thay i mang tnh cch mng ny gip cho th gii tr nn tt p hn.

Ti c ba mc tiu chnh:
- Nng cao nhn thc v s ton din v tc ca cuc cch mng cng ngh v tc
ng a din ca n,

2
 - To ra mt khun kh cho nhng t duy v cuc cch mng cng nghip mt khun
kh vch ra nhng vn ct li v lm ni bt nhng gii php kh thi, v
- Chun b mt nn tng, t truyn cm hng cho s hp tc cng-t v hp tc
trn cc vn lin quan n cch mng cng ngh.

Quan trng hn ht, cun sch ny hng n mc ch nhn mnh cch thc m cng ngh
v x hi cng tn ti. Cng ngh khng phi l mt lc lng ngoi sinh m chng ta
khng th kim sot. Chng ta khng b bt buc phi la chn, gia "chp nhn v sng
vi n" v "t chi v sng m khng c n". Thay vo , hy xem nhng thay i cng
ngh n tng nh mt li mi phn chiu v bn thn chng ta v cch chng ta nhn th
gii. Chng ta cng ngh v cch khai thc cuc cch mng cng ngh th chng ta s cng
khm ph c bn thn v cc m hnh x hi c bn m nhng cng ngh ny i din v
to ra, v chng ta cng s cng c c hi nh hnh cuc cch mng ny theo hng ci
thin tnh trng ca th gii.

nh hnh cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t m bo rng cuc cch mng ny s
trao quyn v tp trung vo con ngi ch khng phi l chia r v v nhn o, khng
phi l nhim v ca bt k mt bn lin quan hay lnh vc hoc cho bt c khu vc, ngnh
cng nghip hoc nn vn ha n l no. Tnh cht cn bn v ton cu ca cuc cch mng
ny c ngha l n s tc ng v b nh hng bi tt c cc quc gia, cc nn kinh t, cc
khu vc v ngi dn. Do , quan trng l chng ta cn u t s quan tm v sc lc vo
s hp tc gia cc bn lin quan trn cc phng din hc thut, x hi, chnh tr, quc gia
v cng nghip. Nhng s tng tc v hp tc ny l cn thit to ra nhng vin cnh
chung tch cc, trn y hy vng, to iu kin cho cc c nhn v cc nhm ngi t mi
ni trn th gii u c th tham gia, v hng li, t nhng chuyn bin ang din ra.

Phn ln thng tin v nhng phn tch ca ti trong cun sch ny u da trn nhng d n
ang din ra v nhng sng kin ca Din n Kinh t Th gii, v c pht trin, tranh
lun v th thch ti nhng k hp Din n gn y. Do , cun sch ny cng to ra mt
khun kh nh hnh cc hot ng tng lai ca Din n Kinh t Th gii. Ti cng
a vo cun sch nhiu iu t nhng cuc tr chuyn ca ti vi cc nh lnh o doanh
nghip, chnh ph v x hi dn s, cng nh nhng ngi tin phong trong cng ngh v
nhng ngi tr tui. Theo ngha , y l mt cun sch a ngun, l sn phm ca tr
tu tp th khai sng ca cng ng Din n.

Cun sch ny gm ba chng. Chng u tin l tng quan v cuc cch mng cng
nghip ln th t. Chng th hai trnh by v cc cng ngh bin i chnh. Chng th ba
a ra nhng gc nhn su v tc ng ca cuc cch mng v mt s thch thc chnh sch
m n t ra. Ti kt lun bng cch xut nhng tng thc t v nhng gii php tt
nht thch ng, nh hnh v khai thc tim nng ca s bin i ln ny.

3
 1. Cuc Cch mng Cng nghip Ln th t

1.1. Bi cnh lch s

T cch mng c ngha l mt s thay i t ngt v cn bn. Cc cuc cch mng trong
lch s din ra khi nhng cng ngh v cch thc mi trong vic nhn thc th gii gy ra s
thay i su sc trong h thng kinh t v cu trc x hi. Ly lch s lm khung tham chiu,
nhng thay i t ngt ny c th mt nhiu nm nhn thy.
Bin i su sc u tin trong cch sng ca chng ta s chuyn i t tm kim thc n
sang trng trt v chn nui xy ra vo khong 10.000 nm trc v c thc hin nh
qu trnh thun ha ng vt. Cuc cch mng nng nghip kt hp n lc thun ho
ng vt vi n lc ca con ngi nhm mc ch to ra sn phm, vn chuyn v giao tip.
Tng cht mt, sn xut lng thc c ci thin, thc y tng trng dn s v to iu
kin cho cc khu nh c ln hn. iu ny cui cng dn n qu trnh th ha v s tri
dy ca cc thnh ph.
Theo sau cuc cch mng nng nghip l mt lot cc cuc cch mng cng nghip bt u
vo na sau th k XVIII. Cc cuc cch mng ny nh du s chuyn i t sc mng c
bp sang nng lng c hc, tin trin n ngy nay, vi cuc cch mng cng nghip ln
th t, trong nng lc nhn thc nng cao ang gip tng nng sut con ngi.
Cuc cch mng cng nghip u tin tri di t nm 1760 n khong nm 1840. Bt u
bng vic xy dng cc tuyn ng st v pht minh ra ng c hi nc, cuc cch mng
ny nh du s khi u ca k nguyn sn xut c kh. Cuc cch mng cng nghip ln
th hai, din ra t cui th k 19 v u th k 20, vi sn xut hng lot, c thc y bi
s ra i ca in nng v dy chuyn lp rp. Cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th ba bt
u vo nhng nm 1960. N thng c gi l cuc cch mng my tnh hay cch mng
s bi v n c xc tc bi s pht trin ca cht bn dn, my tnh c ln (mainframe)
(thp nin 1960), my tnh c nhn (thp nin 1970 v 1980) v internet (thp nin 1990).
Cng vi vic xem xt nhng nh ngha khc nhau v cc tranh lun khoa hc v c trng
ca ba cuc cch mng cng nghip u tin, ti tin rng ngy nay chng ta ang giai on
u ca cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t. N bt u vo vo thi im chuyn
giao sang th k ny v hnh thnh da trn cuc cch mng s. N c c trng bi mng
internet ngy cng ph bin v di ng, bi cc cm bin nh v mnh m hn vi gi thnh
r hn, v bi tr thng minh nhn to v my hc.
Cng ngh k thut s vi phn cng my tnh, phn mm v h thng mng trong cu trc
ca n khng phi l mi, nhng sau mt thi gian ngng tr vi cuc cch mng cng
nghip ln th ba, n tr nn ngy cng phc tp v c tch hp nhiu hn, v kt qu
l ang lm bin i x hi v nn kinh t ton cu. y l l do ti sao Gio s Erik

4
Brynjolfsson v Andrew McAfee, Vin Cng ngh Massachusetts (MIT), ly tn giai on
ny lm tiu ca cun sch nm 2014 ca h - "thi i my tnh th hai" [2]. H tuyn
b rng th gii ang mt bc ngot, m ti nh hng ca cc cng ngh k thut s
ny s chng t vi "ton b sc mnh" thng qua s t ng ha v to ra "nhng iu
cha tng c".
Ti c, c nhng cuc tho lun v ch "Cng nghip 4.0", mt thut ng c nu
ra ti Hi ch Hannover vo nm 2011, m t rng iu ny s cch mng ha vic t
chc cc chui gi tr ton cu nh th no. Bng cch kch hot cc nh my thng minh,
cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t to ra mt th gii m trong cc h thng sn
xut o v vt l trn ton cu c th lin kt vi nhau mt cch linh hot. iu ny cho php
vic hon ton ty bin cc sn phm v to ra cc m hnh hot ng mi.
Tuy nhin, cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t khng ch l v my mc v h thng
thng minh v c kt ni. Phm vi ca n rng ln hn nhiu. Cc ln sng t ph trong
cc lnh vc khc nhau xy ra ng thi, t gii m trnh t gen cho ti cng ngh nano, t
nng lng ti to n tnh ton lng t. Cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t l s dung
hp gia cc cng ngh ny v s tng tc ca chng trn cc lnh vc vt l, k thut s
v sinh hc khin cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t ny v c bn khc vi nhng
cuc cch mng trc .
Trong cuc cch mng ny, nhng cng ngh mi ni v s i mi trn din rng c
khuch tn nhanh hn v rng ri hn so vi nhng ln trc, iu vn tip tc din ra mt
s ni trn th gii. Cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th hai vn cha n c vi 17%
dn s ca th gii tc c tnh khong gn 1,3 t ngi cha tip cn c vi in. iu
ny cng chnh xc vi cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th ba, vi hn mt na dn s th
gii, 4 t ngi m phn ln ang sng nhng nc ang pht trin, cha tip cn internet.
Trc quay ca cng ngh (du hiu phn bit cuc cch mng cng nghip u tin) mt
gn 120 nm c lan ta ra ngoi chu u. Ngc li, internet trn ngp khp ni
trn th gii ch trong vng hn mt thp k.
Bi hc t cuc cch mng cng nghip u tin vn cn gi tr n ngy nay l mc
chp nhn i mi cng ngh ca mt x hi l nhn t chnh quyt nh s tin b. Chnh
ph v cc t chc cng cng, cng nh khu vc t nhn, cn phi thc hin bn phn ca
h, nhng mt iu cng quan trng l ngi dn phi thy c nhng li ch lu di.
Ti tin rng cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t chc chn s din ra mt cch mnh m,
c sc nh hng v c tm quan trng vi lch s nh ba cuc cch mng trc. Tuy nhin
ti c hai mi lo ngi chnh v cc yu t c th hn ch kh nng cuc cch mng cng
nghip ln th t c din ra mt cch hiu qu v c tnh lin kt.
Trc tin, ti cm thy rng trnh yu cu v nng lc lnh o v s hiu bit v nhng
thay i ang din tin trn tt c cc lnh vc, nhng vn cn thp khi t trong s tng

5
phn vi nhu cu phi xem xt li nhng h thng kinh t, x hi v chnh tr ca chng ta
p ng cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t. Do , c cp quc gia v ton cu,
khung th ch cn thit qun l vic ph bin s i mi v gim thiu s xo trn l
khng , t hn l hon ton khng c.
Th hai, th gii ang thiu mt li dn gii nht qun, tch cc v chung vch ra nhng
c hi v thch thc ca cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t, mt dn gii mang tnh
thit yu nu chng ta mun trao quyn cho mt tp hp a dng cc c nhn v cng ng
v trnh mt phn ng ph bin ca ngi dn trc nhng thay i c bn ang din ra.

1.2. Thay i su sc v h thng

Tin ca cun sch ny l cng ngh v s ha s cch mng ha mi th, khin cho cu
chm ngn thng b lm dng ln ny s khc tr nn ng. Ni mt cch n gin, cc
i mi cng ngh ch yu u ang trn b vc ca s thay i quan trng trn ton th
gii chc chn l nh vy.
Quy m v phm vi ca s thay i gii thch v sao c th cm thy s ph v v i mi
ngy nay li xy ra mt cch d di nh th. Tc i mi xt trn c hai phng din bao
gm s pht trin v kh nng khuch tn ca n u nhanh hn bao gi ht. Nhng nhn t
gy ph v ngy nay Airbnb, Uber, Alibaba v nhng cng ty tng t gi y l nhng
ci tn m ai cng bit tng kh v danh ch cch y vi nm. Chic in thoi Iphone
y ry khp mi ni c tung ra vo nm 2007. Song n cui nm 2015, c tnh c
n 2 t chic in thoi thng minh c bn ra. Nm 2010, Google ln u tin cng b
chic xe hon ton t vn hnh m khng cn ngi li ca h. Nhng chic xe nh vy c
th sm tr thnh mt thc t ph bin trn ng ph.
iu c th xy ra. Nhng n khng phi ch l tc ; hiu sut theo quy m cng gy
s ng ngc nhin khng km. S ha c ngha l t ng ha, v cng c ngha l cc
cng ty khng phi gnh chu vic li tc theo quy m gim xung (hoc t nht l t cng ty
s phi chu iu hn). c th hiu iu ny mc tng hp, th so snh thnh ph
Detroit nm 1990 (sau tr thnh mt trung tm ln ca cc ngnh cng nghip truyn
thng) vi Thung lng Silicon vo nm 2014. Nm 1990, ba cng ty ln nht ti Detroit c
tng gi tr vn ha th trng l 36 t la, doanh thu l 250 t la, v c 1,2 triu nhn
vin. Nm 2014, ba cng ty ln nht ca Thung lng Silicon c gi tr vn ha th trng cao
hn ng k (1,09 nghn t la), to ra s doanh thu tng t (247 t la), nhng ch vi
khong mt phn mi s lao ng (137.000).[3]
Thc t mt n v ca ci vt cht c to ra ngy hm nay c kh nng s dng t nhn
cng hn so vi 10 hay 15 nm trc y bi v cc doanh nghip s c chi ph cn bin c
xu hng gn bng 0. Ngoi ra, mt thc t ca thi i k thut s l nhiu doanh nghip
mi cung cp cc hng ha thng tin vi chi ph lu tr, vn chuyn v ti to gn nh

6
bng 0. Mt s cng ty c cng ngh t ph dng nh i hi t vn pht trin. V d,
cc doanh nghip nh Instagram hay WhatsApp khng cn nhiu kinh ph khi nghip,
thay i vai tr ca vn v quy m kinh doanh trong bi cnh ca cuc cch mng cng
nghip ln th t. Nhn chung, iu ny cho thy hiu sut theo quy m s tip tc thc y
s thay i quy m v tm nh hng trn ton b h thng nh th no.
Bn cnh tc v phm vi, cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t cn c th c xem l
c o bi s hi ha v kh nng tch hp nhiu lnh vc v pht minh khc nhau. Cc
sng kin hu hnh l kt qu ca s tng tc gia cc cng ngh khng cn l khoa hc
vin tng. V d, ngy nay cng ngh ch to k thut s c th tng tc vi th gii sinh
hc. Mt s nh thit k v kin trc s kt hp thit k trn my tnh, cng ngh sn xut
p dn, k thut vt liu v sinh hc tng hp tin phong to ra cc h thng cho php s
tng tc gia cc vi sinh vt, c th ca chng ta, nhng sn phm m chng ta tiu th, v
thm ch c nhng ta nh m chng ta ang sng. Bng cch , h ang to ra (v thm
ch l ang kch thch pht trin) cc i tng c th lin tc bin i v thch nghi
(nhng im c trng ca gii thc vt v ng vt).[4]
Trong cun Thi i my tnh th hai, Brynjolfsson v McAfee cho rng my tnh tinh vi
n mc hu nh khng th d on c nhng ng dng no s c s dng trong vi
nm ti. Tr thng minh nhn to (AI) c mt khp ni xung quanh chng ra, t nhng chic
xe v my bay khng ngi li n tr l o v phn mm dch thut. N ang thay i cuc
sng ca chng ta. AI t c nhng tin b n tng, nh hiu nng my tnh tng
nhanh theo cp s nhn v s sn c ca mt lng d liu s, t cc phn mm trc
y dng pht minh ra loi thuc mi n cc thut ton d on mi quan tm vn ha
ca chng ta. Nhiu thut ton trong s c hc hi t v s mu d liu m chng ta
b li trong th gii k thut s. iu ny dn n s ra i ca cc loi my hc mi
v pht minh t ng cho php nhng con r bt v my tnh thng minh t lp trnh v
tm ra cc gii php ti u t nhng nguyn tc u tin.
Cc ng dng nh Siri ca Apple, th c gi l tr l thng minh, mang n mt ci nhn
thong qua v sc mnh ca mt nhnh trong nhng lnh vc AI ang tin b nhanh. Ch hai
nm trc, nhng tr l c nhn thng minh mi ch bt u xut hin. Ngy nay, nhn dng
ging ni v tr thng minh nhn to ang pht trin nhanh n ni vic ni chuyn vi my
tnh s sm tr thnh mt tiu chun, to ra th m cc k s cng ngh gi l mi trng
xung quanh my tnh, trong cc tr l c nhn r bt lun sn sng ghi chp v tr li
cc truy vn ca ngi dng. Cc thit b ca chng ta s ngy cng tr thnh mt phn quan
trng ca h sinh thi c nhn, lng nghe chng ta, d on nhu cu ca chng ta, v gip
chng ta khi cn thm ch ngay c khi khng yu cu.

Bt bnh ng nh mt thch thc h thng

7
Cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t s to ra nhiu li ch to ln v cng chng
nhng thch thc. Mt mi lo ngi c bit l s bt bnh ng trm trng. Nhng thch thc
t ra bi s gia tng bt bnh ng rt kh nh lng bi v mt phn ln trong s chng
ta l nhng ngi tiu dng v nh sn xut, do vy, i mi v s ph v s nh hng c
hai mt tch cc v tiu cc n mc sng v phc li ca chng ta.
Nhng ngi tiu dng dng nh c hng li nht. Cuc cch mng cng nghip ln
th t gip to ra cc sn phm v dch v mi cho php gia tng hiu qu cuc sng c
nhn ca chng ta trong vai tr l ngi tiu dng, vi chi ph gn nh bng khng. Gi mt
chic taxi, tm kim mt chuyn bay, mua mt sn phm, thc hin thanh ton, nghe nhc
hay xem mt b phim - bt k cng vic no gi y cng c th c thc hin t xa. Li
ch ca cng ngh i vi tt c chng ta nhng ngi tiu dng, l khng th chi ci.
Internet, in thoi thng minh v hng ngn ng dng ang lm cho cuc sng ca chng ta
tr nn d dng hn, v nhn chung hiu qu hn. Mt thit b n gin nh chic my
tnh bng m chng ta dng c sch, lt web v giao tip, s hu kh nng x l tng
ng 5.000 my tnh bn ca 30 nm trc, trong khi chi ph lu tr thng tin gn bng
khng (chi ph lu tr 1GB hin nay trung bnh mc di 0,03 la mi nm, so vi hn
10.000 la thi im cch y 20 nm).
Nhng thch thc t ra bi cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t dng nh xut hin
ch yu pha cung trong th gii ca lao ng v sn xut. Trong vi nm qua, a s cc
nc pht trin nht v c mt s nn kinh t tng trng nhanh nh Trung Quc tri qua
mt mc st gim ng k trong t trng lao ng trn GDP. Phn nhiu l gii cho s suy
gim ny l do gi tng i ca cc hng thit b gim,[5] m tin trnh i mi cng
c coi l nguyn nhn (iu ny buc cc cng ty phi dng lao ng thay th cho
vn).
Kt qu l, nhng ngi hng li ln t cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t l cc nh
cung cp vn tri thc hoc vn vt cht cc nh ci cch, nh u t, v cc bn lin quan,
iu ny gip gii thch khong cch ngy cng gia tng v ca ci gia nhng ngi s hu
vn v nhng ngi lao ng. N cng gii thch ti sao rt nhiu ngi lao ng tht vng
v tin chc rng thu nhp thc t ca h c th khng tng sut cuc i h v rng con ci
h c th s khng c cuc sng tt hn h.
Bt bnh ng gia tng v nhng mi lo ngi ln dn v bt bnh ng l mt thch thc ln
m ti s dnh mt phn ni n trong Chng Ba. S tp trung li ch v gi tr trong tay
mt s t ngi cng trm trng hn bi ci c gi l hiu ng nn tng, trong cc t
chc nh hng s to ra cc mng kt ni nhng ngi mua v ngi bn cc sn phm
dch v a dng v do c c mc tng trong hiu sut theo quy m.
Hiu ng nn tng to nn s tp trung ca mt s t nn tng mnh m ang thng tr th
trng. Li ch l r rng, c bit i vi ngi tiu dng: gi tr cao hn, thun tin hn v
chi ph thp hn. Tuy nhin cng tim n nhng ri ro v mt x hi. ngn chn s tp

8
trung ca gi tr v quyn lc trong mt vi bn tay, chng ta cn phi tm ra cch cn
bng li ch v ri ro ca cc nn tng k thut s (bao gm c cc nn tng cng nghip)
bng cch m bo s cng khai v cc c hi i mi hp tc.
y l tt c nhng thay i c bn nh hng n h thng kinh t, x hi v chnh tr ca
chng ta, m kh c th xa b, ngay c khi qu trnh ton cu ha v mt l do no b
o ngc. Cu hi dnh cho mi ngnh cng nghip v cc cng ty, m khng c ngoi l
no, khng cn l Ti s b v? m l Khi xy ra s v, n s din ra di hnh
thc no v n s tc ng nh th no n ti v t chc ca ti?
Thc t ca s v v nhng tc ng m chng ta khng th trnh khi khng c ngha l
chng ta bt lc khi i mt vi n. Trch nhim ca chng ta l phi m bo rng chng ta
thit lp c tp hp cc gi tr chung nh hng nhng la chn chnh sch v thc
thi nhng thay i m s khin cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t tr thnh c hi i
vi tt c mi ngi.

9
 2. Cc nhn t thc y

C v s t chc cng b nhng danh sch xp hng cc cng ngh khc nhau s thc y
cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t. Nhng t ph khoa hc v cc cng ngh mi m
n to ra dng nh v hn, din ra trn rt nhiu mt khc nhau v nhiu ni khc nhau.
S la chn ca ti v cc cng ngh chnh xem xt da trn nghin cu thc hin bi
Din n Kinh t Th gii v mt vi cng trnh ca Hi ng Chng trnh ngh s ton
cu ti Din n.

2.1. Cc xu th ln
Tt c nhng s pht trin v cng ngh mi u c mt c im chung: l tn dng sc
mnh lan ta ca s ha v cng ngh thng tin. Tt c nhng i mi c m t trong
chng ny c kch hot v c tng cng nh sc mnh k thut s. V d, vic gii
m trnh t gen khng th c thc hin nu thiu tin b trong sc mnh tnh ton v phn
tch d liu. Tng t vy, nhng con r bt cao cp s khng tn ti m khng c tr thng
minh nhn to, m trong , bn thn tr thng minh nhn to li phn ln ph thuc vo sc
mnh in ton.
xc nh cc xu th ln v truyn t ci nhn bao qut v cc yu t thc y cng ngh
ca cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t, ti chia danh sch cc yu t thnh ba nhm:
vt l, k thut s v sinh hc. C ba nhm u lin quan cht ch vi nhau v cc cng ngh
khc nhau u hng li t mi nhm da trn nhng khm ph v tin b m cc nhm ny
to ra.

2.1.1. Vt l
C bn i din vt l chnh ca cc xu hng ln v cng ngh, d dng nhn thy nht do
tnh cht hu hnh ca n:
- Xe t li
- Cng ngh in 3D
- R bt cao cp
- Vt liu mi

Xe t li
Chic xe hi khng ngi li ang thng tr cc bn tin nhng hin nay cn c nhiu phng
tin t li khc bao gm xe ti, thit b bay khng ngi li, my bay v tu thuyn. Khi cc
cng ngh chng hn nh nhng cm bin v tr tu nhn to pht trin, kh nng ca tt c
10
cc phng tin t hnh ny cng c ci thin vi tc nhanh chng. N ch l l mt
cu hi cch y vi nm, trc khi m thit b bay khng ngi li bt u c thng
mi ho c sn trn th trng v chi ph thp, cng vi tu ngm, c s dng trong nhiu
ng dng khc nhau.
Khi nhng thit b bay khng ngi li c kh nng cm nhn v phn ng vi mi trng
(thay i nh tuyn trnh va chm), n c th thc hin nhng nhim v nh kim tra
ng dy ti in hoc cung cp vt t y t trong vng chin tranh. V d, trong nng
nghip, vic s dng thit b bay khng ngi li kt hp vi phn tch d liu s cho
php s dng phn bn v nc chnh xc v hiu qu hn.

Cng ngh in 3D
Cn c gi l cng ngh sn xut p dn (additive manufacturing), cng ngh in 3D l
vic to ra mt i tng vt l bng cch in ra tng lp t mt bn v k thut s 3D hoc
mt m hnh c trc. Cng ngh ny khc hon ton so vi sn xut ct gt vn thng
c dng ch to t trc ti nay, m theo tng lp s c loi b khi mt khi vt
liu ban u cho n khi thu c hnh dng mong mun. Ngc li, cng ngh in 3D bt
u vi vt liu ri v sau to nn mt vt th di dng ba chiu t mt mu k thut s.
Cng ngh ny ang c s dng trong mt lot cc ng dng, t nhng ng dng vi kch
thc ln (tua-bin gi) n nh (cy ghp y hc). Hin nay, n ch yu b gii hn trong cc
ngnh cng nghip ch to my mc t ng, hng khng v tr v y t. Khng ging nh
cc loi hng ha c sn xut hng lot, cc sn phm in 3D c th c ty chnh d
dng. Khi m nhng hn ch hin ti v kch thc, chi ph v tc ang dn c khc
phc, cng ngh in 3D s tr nn ph bin hn, p dng i vi c cc thnh phn in t
tch hp nh bng mch in v thm ch c cc t bo v c quan ca con ngi. Cc nh
nghin cu bt u nghin cu v cng ngh 4D, mt qu trnh to ra mt th h mi cc
sn phm c kh nng t bin chuyn p ng vi nhng thay i mi trng nh nhit
v m. Cng ngh ny c th c s dng trong sn xut qun o v giy dp, cng
nh nhng sn phm lin quan n sc kho nh cc m cy c thit k thch ng vi
c th con ngi.

R bt cao cp
Cho n gn y, vic s dng r bt vn b hn ch nhng nhim v c kim sot cht
ch trong mt s ngnh cng nghip c th nh t ng ha. Tuy nhin, ngy nay r bt
ngy cng c s dng nhiu hn trn mi lnh vc v cho mt lot cc cng vic t nng
nghip chnh xc n chm sc bnh nhn. Tin b nhanh chng trong cng ngh r bt s
sm khin s hp tc gia con ngi v my mc tr thnh hin thc. Hn na, nh vo
nhng tin b cng ngh khc, r bt ang tr nn thch nghi v linh hot hn, vi thit k
cu trc v chc nng ca n c ly cm hng t cc cu trc sinh hc phc tp (s m

11
rng ca qu trnh m phng sinh hc, trong m hnh v cc c tnh ca t nhin c
bt chc li).
Nhng tin b trong cm bin cho php r bt hiu v phn ng tt hn vi mi trng v
tham gia vo nhiu cng vic hn, v d nh lm vic nh. i lp vi qu kh, khi m r
bt c lp trnh thng qua mt n v c lp, hin nay r bt c th tip cn vi thng tin
t xa thng qua in ton m my v t c th kt ni vi mt mng li cc r bt
khc. Khi th h tip theo ca r bt xut hin, n c th s phn nh ngy cng r nt s
hp tc gia con ngi-my mc. Chng Ba, ti s trnh by nhng vn o c v
tm l t ra bi mi quan h con ngi-my mc.

Vt liu mi
Vi nhng thuc tnh dng m cch y vi nm vn cn c coi l khng th tng
tng c, cc vt liu mi ang c gii thiu trn th trng. V tng th, chng nh
hn, bn hn, c th ti ch v d thch ng. Hin nay c nhiu ng dng cho cc vt liu
thng minh c kh nng t phc hi hoc t lm sch, cc kim loi vi b nh c th khi
phc li hnh dng ban u, gm s v pha l c kh nng bin p lc thnh nng lng, v
nhiu vt liu khc na.
Cng nh nhiu i mi ca cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t, rt kh bit vt liu
mi s pht trin ti u. Ly v d l nhng vt liu nano cao cp nh graphene, bn hn
khong 200 ln so vi thp, mng hn mt triu ln so vi tc ca ngi, v l mt dy dn
nhit v in hiu qu.[6] Khi gi ca graphene tr nn cnh tranh hn (so snh vi nhng
vt liu khc th y l mt trong nhng vt liu t nht hnh tinh, mt mu vi kch thc
mt micromet c gi hn 1.000$), th n c th gy xo trn ng k cc ngnh cng nghip
sn xut v c s h tng.[7] N cng c th gy nh hng ln n cc quc gia ph thuc
nhiu vo mt mt hng c th.
Cc vt liu mi khc c th ng mt vai tr quan trng trong vic gim thiu cc ri ro
ton cu m chng ta phi i mt. V d, cc ci tin mi trong sn xut nha nhit rn1 c
th cho php ti s dng nhng vt liu tng nh khng th ti ch vo mi th, t in
thoi di ng v cc bng mch in cho n cc b phn trong ngnh cng nghip hng khng
v tr. Nhng khm ph mi y v cc loi polyme nhit rn c th ti ch c, gi l
polyhexahydrotriazines (PHTs), l mt bc tin ln hng ti nn kinh t tun hon
(circular economy), nn kinh t c ti to theo mun v hot ng bng cch tch tng
trng khi nhu cu ngun lc.[8]

2.1.2. K thut s

1
Loi nha khi gia nhit n mt nhit nht nh b rn li v c nng nhit ln na cng
khng nng chy
12
Mt trong nhng cy cu chnh kt ni cc ng dng vt l v k thut s c to ra bi
cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t l mng li vn vt kt ni Internet (IoT) i khi
c gi l Internet kt ni vn vt. dng n gin nht, n c th c m t nh mt
mi quan h gia cc s vt (cc sn phm, dch v, a im, v.v) v con ngi, thng qua
cc cng ngh kt ni v cc nn tng khc nhau.
Cm bin v cc gii php kt ni cc s vt ca th gii thc vo mng khng gian o ang
pht trin vi mt tc ng kinh ngc. Cc cm bin nh hn, r hn v thng minh hn
c ci t trong nh, qun o v ph kin, cc thnh ph, mng li giao thng v nng
lng, cng nh cc quy trnh sn xut. Ngy nay, c hng t cc thit b trn th gii nh
in thoi thng minh, my tnh bng v my tnh c kt ni vi internet. S lng ny d
kin s tng ng k trong vi nm ti, c tnh t vi t n hn mt nghn t thit b. iu
ny s thay i hon ton cch thc chng ta qun l chui cung ng bng cch cho php
chng ta gim st v ti u ha ti sn v cc hot ng n mt mc rt chi tit. Trong
qu trnh , mng li vn vt kt ni internet IoT s c nhng tc ng bin i trn tt c
cc ngnh cng nghip, t sn xut n c s h tng cho ti chm sc sc khe.
Xem xt vic gim st t xa mt ng dng ph bin ca IoT. Bt k mt kin, pa-lt hay
container no gi y cng c th c trang b mt th cm ng, my pht hoc thit b
nhn dng tn s sng v tuyn (RFID) cho php cng ty c th theo di n ang di chuyn
n u trong chui cung ng n hot ng nh th no, c s dng nh th no, vv.
Tng t, khch hng c th lin tc theo di (hu nh l thi gian thc) tin ca gi
hng hay ti liu m h ang mong i. i vi cc cng ty ang kinh doanh c chui cung
ng di v phc tp, y l s i mi. Trong tng lai gn, nhng h thng gim st tng
t cng s c p dng trong vic di chuyn v theo di con ngi.
Cuc cch mng k thut s to ra cch tip cn hon ton mi, lm cch mng ha cch
thc m cc c nhn v t chc hot ng v cng tc. V d, cng ngh u mi phn phi
(blockchain), thng c miu t nh mt s ci phn phi, l mt giao thc an ton m
ti , mng li cc my tnh cng kim chng mt giao dch trc khi n c ghi chp
v chp nhn. Cc cng ngh nn tng ca blockchain to nim tin bng cch cho php
nhng ngi khng bit nhau (v do khng c nn tng c bn cho s tin tng) cng tc
vi nhau m khng cn phi qua mt c quan trung ng trung lp no tc l ngi gim
h hoc s k ton trung tm. V bn cht, blockchain l mt s ci c chia s, lp trnh,
m ha an ton v do ng tin cy m khng b kim sot ch bi mt ngi dng n l
no v c th c kim tra bi tt c mi ngi.
Bitcoin cho n nay l ng dng cng ngh blockchain c nhiu ngi bit n nht,
nhng cng ngh s sm lm pht sinh v s nhng ng dng khc. Nu ti thi im ny,
cng ngh blockchain ghi li cc giao dch ti chnh c thc hin vi loi tin t o nh
Bitcoin, trong tng lai n s thc hin chc nng nh mt c quan ng kim cho mi th
nh khai sinh v chng t, xc nhn ch s hu, giy ng k kt hn, trnh gio dc,

13
khiu ni bo him, th tc y t v bu c v c bn l bt k loi giao dch no c th
c m ha. Mt s quc gia hay t chc nghin cu tim nng ca blockchain. V d,
chnh ph Honduras ang s dng cng ngh ny x l v quyn s dng t, trong khi
o Man (Isle of Man) ang th nghim s dng n trong vic ng k cng ty.
Trn mt quy m rng ln hn, cc nn tng cng ngh c tnh kch hot to ra ci m
ngy nay gi l nn kinh t theo yu cu (mt s ngi gi l nn kinh t chia s). Nhng
nn tng d s dng trn in thoi thng minh ny c th tp hp ngi, ti sn v d liu,
to ra cc cch thc tiu th hng ha v dch v hon ton mi. N gim bt cc ro cn i
vi cc doanh nghip v c nhn trong vic to ra ca ci, lm thay i mi trng c nhn
v lm vic.
M hnh Uber l biu tng cho sc mnh t ph ca nhng nn tng cng ngh ny. Cc
hot ng kinh doanh nn tng ny nhanh chng c nhn rng to ra cc dch v
mi t git l n mua sm, t nhng vic vt cho n xe, t dch v lu tr ti cc gia
nh bn a n chia s phng tin di chuyn trong nhng chng ng di. Chng c mt
im chung l: bng cch kt ni cung v cu theo mt cch rt d tip cn (chi ph thp),
cung cp cho ngi tiu dng cc hng ha a dng, v cho php c hai bn tng tc v
phn hi, nhng nn tng ny do gieo mm nim tin. N cho php s dng hiu qu
cc ti sn vn cha c tn dng ht hiu sut tc l nhng g thuc quyn s hu ca
ngi m trc y cha tng c nim coi mnh l bn cung (v d chia s mt ch ngi
trong xe ca h, mt phng ng khng dng n trong nh ca h, mt lin kt thng mi
gia cc nh bn l v nh sn xut, hoc thi gian v k nng cung cp mt dch v nh
giao hng, sa cha nh ca hoc cc cc cng vic hnh chnh).
Nn kinh t theo yu cu t ra mt cu hi c bn: Ci g ng s hu nn tng hay ti
sn c bn? Nh chin lc gia truyn thng Tom Goodwin vit trong mt bi bo trn t
TechCrunch vo thng ba nm 2015: Uber, cng ty taxi ln nht th gii, khng s hu mt
ci t no. Facebook, ch s hu phng tin truyn thng ph bin nht th gii, khng
to ra mt ni dung no. Alibaba, nh bn l c gi tr nht, khng c cht hng tn kho no.
V Airbnb, nh cung cp ni n ngh ln nht th gii, khng s hu bt c mt bt ng
sn no.[9]
Nn tng k thut s gim ng k cc chi ph giao dch v vn hnh pht sinh khi cc c
nhn hoc t chc chia s vic s dng mt ti sn hoc cung cp mt dch v. Mi giao dch
gi y c th c chia thnh tng phn li tc r rng, vi li ch kinh t cho mi bn lin
quan. Ngoi ra, khi s dng cc nn tng k thut s, chi ph cn bin ca vic sn xut thm
mi sn phm, hng ha hay dch v c xu hng v khng. iu ny c hm ln i vi
cc doanh nghip v x hi m ti s trnh by ti Chng Ba.

2.1.3. Sinh hc

14
Nhng sng kin trong lnh vc sinh hc v c bit trong lnh vc di truyn u v cng
ngon mc. Trong nhng nm gn y, chng ta v ang t c nhng tin b ng k
trong vic gim chi ph v ngy cng d dng hn trong gii m trnh t gen, v gn y, l
vic kch hot hay chnh sa gen. Phi mt hn 10 nm, vi chi ph 2,7 t la, hon
thnh D n B Gen ngi. Ngy nay, mt b gien c th c gii m ch trong vi gi v
chi ph khng ti mt ngn la.[10] Vi nhng tin b trong sc mnh my tnh, cc nh
khoa hc khng cn phi gii m bng cc php th ng sai; thay vo , gi y, h th
nghim cch thc cc bin d gen gy ra cc bnh l c th.
Sinh hc tng hp l bc tip theo. N s gip chng ta c kh nng ty bin c th bng
cch vit li ADN. t nhng vn su sc v o c sang mt bn, nhng tin b ny s
khng ch to ra tc ng su rng v tc th ti y hc m cn ti nng nghip v sn xut
nhin liu sinh hc.
Nhiu cn bnh kh cha ca chng ta, t bnh tim cho n ung th, u cha ng yu t
di truyn. Do , kh nng xc nh cu trc di truyn c nhn mt cch hiu qu v vi chi
ph hp l (thng qua my gii m c s dng trong vic chn on bnh thng thng) s
cch mng ha vic chm sc sc khe theo hng c nhn ho. Khi bit v cu trc di
truyn ca khi u, cc bc s s c th a ra quyt nh v vic iu tr ung th cho bnh
nhn.
Trong khi s hiu bit ca chng ta v mi lin h gia cc du hiu di truyn v nhng cn
bnh vn cn ngho nn, lng d liu ngy cng tng s gip la chn chnh xc cc loi
thuc, cho php pht trin cc phng php iu tr nhm mc tiu ch yu ci thin kt
qu iu tr. Hin ti, h thng siu my tnh Watson ca IBM c th gip a ra khuyn
ngh, ch trong vi pht, v cc phng php iu tr c nhn cho cc bnh nhn ung th
bng cch so snh lch s bnh l v quy trnh iu tr, kt qu chp ct lp v d liu di
truyn vi (gn nh) tt c nhng kin thc y hc cp nht trn ton cu.[11]
Kh nng chnh sa sinh hc c th c p dng cho bt k mt loi t bo c th no, cho
php to ra cc thc vt hoc ng vt bin i gen, cng nh thay i t bo ca cc c th
trng thnh bao gm c con ngi. iu ny khc vi k thut di truyn c thc hin
vo nhng nm 1980 ch l n chnh xc, hiu qu v d dng hn so vi cc phng php
trc y. Trn thc t, khoa hc ang tin trin nhanh n mc nhng hn ch v k thut
hin nay l t hn so vi cc vn v php lut, qun l v o c. Danh sch cc ng
dng tim nng dng nh l v tn t kh nng lm bin i ng vt chng c th
c nui vi ch thc n kinh t hn v ph hp hn vi iu kin a phng, n vic
to ra cy lng thc c kh nng chu c kh hu khc nghit hoc hn hn.
Nh s tin b ca cc nghin cu v k thut di truyn (v d, s pht trin ca phng
php CRISPR/Cas9 v chnh sa v tr liu gen), nhng hn ch v s cung cp hiu qu v
tnh c trng ca kiu gen s c khc phc, li cho chng ta mt cu hi ngay trc
mt v cng thch thc nht, c bit l t quan im o c: Vic chnh sa gen s cch

15
mng ha nghin cu y hc v iu tr y t nh th no? V nguyn tc, c thc vt v ng
vt u c th c bo ch sn xut cc dc phm v cc hnh thc iu tr khc. Ngy
m loi b c bin i to ra cht ng mu trong sa ca n, yu t m cc bnh nhn
mu kh ng b thiu, l khng cn xa. Cc nh nghin cu bt u thit k b gen ca
loi ln vi mc tiu pht trin cc c quan ph hp vi vic cy ghp vo ngi (mt qu
trnh c gi l cy ghp d chng, n gi vn cha th c xem xt bi nguy c o thi
min dch ca c th ngi v nguy c ly truyn bnh t ng vt sang ngi).
Cng vi quan im trc v cch m cc cng ngh khc nhau phi hp v tng tr ln
nhau, sn xut 3D s c kt hp vi chnh sa gen to ra cc m sng vi mc ch sa
cha v ti sinh m mt qu trnh gi l in sinh hc. Cng ngh ny c s dng ti
to da, xng v cc m mch. Cui cng, cc lp t bo sng c in s c s dng
to ra cc c quan cy ghp.
Chng ta ang pht trin nhng cch thc mi cy v s dng cc thit b theo di mc
hot ng v c tnh ha hc trong mu ca chng ta, v theo di cch m tt c nhng
iu ny c nh hng ti sc khe, tinh thn v nng sut lm vic ti nh v ni lm
vic. Chng ta cng ang tm hiu thm v cch b no con ngi hot ng v chng ta
cng ang chng kin s pht trin khng ngng trong lnh vc cng ngh thn kinh. iu
ny c nhn mnh bi thc t rng trong vi nm qua hai trong s cc chng trnh
nghin cu c ti tr ln nht trn th gii l v khoa hc no b.
Lnh vc sinh hc l ni ti thy nhng thch thc ln nht i vi s pht trin ca c cc
chun mc x hi v cc quy nh ph hp. Chng ta ang i mt vi nhng cu hi mi v
vic l con ngi c ngha th no, d liu v thng tin no v c th v sc khe ca
chng ta c th hoc nn c chia s vi nhng ngi khc, v nhng quyn li v trch
nhim no m chng ta c khi thay i m di truyn ca cc th h tng lai.
Tr li vi vn chnh sa di truyn, m hin nay c thc hin d hn vi vic xc nh
b gen ngi ngay trong phi sng, c ngha l chng ta c th thy s ra i ca cc em b
c thit k trong tng lai nhng em b s hu nhng nt c th hoc c kh nng
khng mt loi bnh c th. Khng cn phi ni, cc cuc tranh lun v c hi v thch thc
ca nhng kh nng ny ang din ra. ng ch , vo thng 12 nm 2015, Vin Hn lm
Khoa hc Quc gia v Hc vin Y khoa Quc gia ca M, Vin Khoa hc Trung Quc v
Hi Hong gia Anh triu tp mt Hi ngh thng nh quc t v chnh sa gen ngi.
D c cc cuc tho lun nh vy, chng ta vn cha sn sng i mt vi thc t v hu
qu ca nhng k thut di truyn mi nht ny, cho d n ang dn xut hin. Nhng thch
thc v x hi, y t, o c v tm l m n t ra l rt ln v cn phi c gii quyt,
hoc t nht, l phi c cp n mt cch thch ng.

Nhng ng lc ca khm ph

16
i mi l mt qu trnh x hi phc tp, v khng phi l iu m chng ta nn mc nh l
hin nhin. Do , cho d phn ny nu bt mt lot nhng tin b cng ngh c sc
mnh thay i th gii, nhng iu quan trng l chng ta phi quan tm n cch m chng
ta c th m bo nhng tin b ny tip tc c thc hin v c nh hng ti kt qu
tt nht c th.
Cc hc vin thng c xem l a im hng u theo ui nhng tng hng v
pha trc. Tuy nhin, bng chng mi ch ra rng cc u i ngh nghip v iu kin ti
tr nhng trng i hc ngy nay ang thc y s gia tng cc nghin cu gia tng, thn
trng d dt hn l cc chng trnh i mi to bo. [12]
Mt liu thuc gii cho cc nghin cu d dt trong cc hc vin l cn khuyn khch c
thm nhiu hnh thc thng mi trong nghin cu. Tuy nhin, iu ny cng c nhng
thch thc. Nm 2015, Cng ty lin doanh cng ngh Uber thu 40 nh nghin cu v nh
khoa hc trong lnh vc r bt t i hc Carnegie Mellon, mt t l ng k v ngun nhn
lc cho mt phng th nghim, nh hng ti nng lc nghin cu ca cng ty v to p lc
ln cc hp ng ca trng i hc vi B Quc phng M v cc t chc khc.[13]
khuyn khch ng thi nghin cu c bn mang tnh t ph v s p dng k thut
sng to trong lnh vc hn lm cng nh kinh doanh, cc chnh ph cn phi phn b ti tr
ln hn cho cc chng trnh nghin cu tham vng. Tng t, hp tc nghin cu cng-t
ngy cng cn c cu trc theo hng xy dng kin thc v vn con ngi v li ch cho
tt c.

17
2.2. im bng pht
Khi nhng xu hng ln ny c tho lun mt cch chung chung, n c v kh tru
tng. Tuy nhin, n ang l ngun gc ca rt nhiu cc ng dng v pht trin thc t.
Mt bo co ca Din n Kinh t Th gii cng b thng 9 nm 2015 xc nh 21 im
bng n thi im khi nhng bin i cng ngh c th xut hin s nh hnh th gii k
thut s v siu kt ni tng lai ca chng ta.[14] Chng u c d on s xy ra trong
10 nm ti v do s tn dng mnh m nhng bin i su sc khi pht bi cuc cch
mng cng nghip ln th t. Cc im bng n c xc nh thng qua mt cuc kho st
tin hnh bi Hi ng Chng trnh Ngh s Ton cu ca Din n Kinh t Th gii v
Tng lai ca Phn mm v X hi, trong c hn 800 nh iu hnh v chuyn gia t cc
lnh vc cng ngh thng tin v truyn thng tham gia.
Bng 1 cho thy t l phn trm s ngi c hi cho rng im bng n s xy ra vo nm
2025.[15] Trong phn ph lc, mi im bng n v cc tc ng tch cc v tiu cc s
c trnh by chi tit hn. Hai im bng n khng thuc cuc iu tra chnh thc thit
k sinh vt v cng ngh thn kinh cng c k n, nhng khng xut hin Bng 1.
Nhng im bng n ny a ra mt bi cnh quan trng do n bo hiu nhng thay i
quan trng pha trc c khuch i bi tnh h thng ca n v lm th no c th
chun b v ng ph tt nht. Nh ti cp trong chng tip theo, vic nh hng nhng
chuyn i ny s bt u cng vi nhn thc v nhng thay i ang din ra, cng nh
nhng g ang ti, v tc ng ca n n tt c cc tng lp x hi ton cu.
Bng 1: Cc im bng n d on s din ra vo 2025
%
10% ngi dn mc cc loi qun o kt ni vi internet 91.2
90% ngi dn c th lu tr d liu khng gii hn v min ph (c
91.0
km qung co)
1 nghn t cm bin kt ni vi internet 89.2
Dc s r bt u tin M 86.5
10% knh c sch kt ni vi internet 85.5
80% ngi dn hin din s trn internet 84.4
Chin t u tin c sn xut hon ton bng cng ngh in 3D 84.1
Chnh ph u tin thay th iu tra dn s bng cc ngun d liu ln 82.9
Chic in thoi di ng cy ghp trn c th ngi u tin c
81.7
thng mi ha
5% sn phm tiu dng c in bng cng ngh in 3D 81.1
90% dn s s dng in thoi thng minh 80.7
90% dn s thng xuyn truy cp internet 78.8

18
10% tng lng xe hi lu thng trn ng M l xe khng ngi
78.2
li
Ca cy ghp l gan u tin c in bng cng ngh in 3D 76.4
30% cc cng ty kim ton c thc hin bi tr tu nhn to 75.4
Ln u tin chnh ph thu thu bng cng ngh blockchain 73.1
Hn 50% lu lng internet kt ni nh l t cc thit b v gia
69.9
dng
Cc chuyn i du lch/cng tc trn ton cu thc hin thng qua vic
67.2
chia s phng tin nhiu hn so vi dng xe ring
Thnh ph u tin vi hn 50.000 dn v khng c n giao thng 63.7
10% tng sn phm quc ni ton cu c lu tr trn blockchain 57.9
Chic my s dng tr tu nhn to u tin gi vai tr trong hi ng
45.2
qun tr ca mt cng ty

Ngun: Bin i su sc Cc im Bng n Cng ngh v Tc ng X hi, Hi ng

Ngh s Ton cu v Tng lai ca Phn mm v X hi, Din n Kinh t Th gii, thng 9
nm 2015.

19
 3. Tc ng

Quy m v phm vi nh hng ca cuc cch mng cng ngh ang bng n s bo hiu cho
nhng thay i mang tnh hin tng v kinh t, x hi v vn ha m gn nh khng th d
on. Tuy nhin, chng ny s m t v phn tch tc ng tim nng ca cuc cch mng
cng nghip ln th t i vi nn kinh t, cc doanh nghip, chnh ph v quc gia, x hi
v cc c nhn.
Trong tt c cc khu vc ny, mt trong nhng tc ng ln nht c th s l kt qu ca tc
nhn duy nht, l s trao quyn mi quan h gia cc chnh ph v cng dn ca h;
mi quan h gia cc doanh nghip v nhn vin, c ng v khch hng ca h; hoc mi
quan h gia cc siu cng quc vi cc nc nh hn. Nhng xo trn m cuc cch
mng cng nghip ln th t gy ra trn cc m hnh chnh tr, kinh t v x hi hin c s
yu cu cc ch th c trao quyn nhn thc rng h l mt phn ca mt h thng quyn
lc phn chia, i hi nhiu hnh thc hp tc tng tc hn thnh cng.

3.1. Kinh t
Cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t s c mt tc ng rt ln v a din ti nn kinh t
ton cu, n mc n khin cho cc nn kinh t kh c th thot khi mt hiu ng ring l
no. Tht vy, tt c cc bin s v m ln m ngi ta c th ngh n nh GDP, u t,
tiu dng, vic lm, thng mi, lm pht u s b nh hng. Ti quyt nh ch tp
trung vo hai kha cnh quan trng nht: tng trng (phn ln thng qua kha cnh nhng
nhn t quyt nh di hn, nng sut) v vic lm.

3.1.1. Tng trng

Tc ng ca cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t i vi tng trng kinh t l mt vn
tranh ci gia nhng nh kinh t hc. Mt mt, nhng ngi c thi bi quan i vi
cng ngh cho rng nhng ng gp quan trng ca cuc cch mng k thut s u c
to ra v rng tc ng ca n i vi nng sut hu nh l dng li. Pha ngc li, cc
nh kinh t c thi lc quan i vi cng ngh khng nh rng cng ngh v i mi
ang ti mt bc ngot v s sm to ra mt s t bin v nng sut v tng trng kinh
t cao hn.
Mc d phi tha nhnton b kha cnh ca cuc tranh lun, nhng ti vn l mt ngi lc
quan thc dng. Ti nhn thc r v cc tc ng gim pht tim nng ca cng ngh (cho
d c miu t l gim pht c li) v mt s hiu ng phn phica n c th nh hng
tch cc ti vn trn lao ng v sit cht tin lng (v t gim tiu th) ra sao. Ti cng

20
thy cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t ny cho php nhiu ngi mua sm nhiu hn
mt mc gi thp hn v theo mt cch thc thng gip vic tiu dng tr nn bn vng
hn, v do c trch nhim hn nh th no.
Quan trng l phi t vo bi cnh cc tc ng tim nng ca cuc cch mng cng nghip
ln th t i vi tng trng, trong tham chiu n cc xu hng kinh t gn y v cc
nhn t khc gp phn vo tng trng. Ch vi nm trc khi cuc khng hong kinh t v
ti chnh din ra vo nm 2008, kinh t ton cu tng trng mc khong 5% mt nm.
Nu t l ny tip tc, n s cho php GDP ton cu tng gp i mi 14-15 nm, vi vin
cnh hng t ngi thot khi i ngho.
Trong thi k hu i suy thoi, nhng k vng rng nn kinh t ton cu s quay tr li m
hnh tng trng cao trc y lan rng. Nhng iu khng din ra. Nn kinh t
ton cu dng nh b mc kt ti mt t l tng trng thp hn c t l trung bnh sau
chin tranh khong 3-3,5% mi nm.
Mt s nh kinh t a ra kh nng v mt s suy thoi th k v ni v nh tr ko
di (secular stagnation), mt thut ng trong thi k i suy thoi c dng bi Alvin
Hansen, v gn y li tr nn thnh hnh khi c cc nh kinh t Larry Summers v Paul
Krugman nhc ti. nh tr ko di m t tnh trng mc cu st gimlin tc m khng
th khc phc c ngay c khi li sut h xung mc gn bng khng. Mc d kin ny
vn cn c tranh lun nhiu trong gii hc thut, n mang n nhng hm quan trng.
Nu ng, n cho thy rng tc tng trng GDP ton cu cn c th gim hn na.
Chng ta c th tng tng mt kch bn cc oan, trong tng trng GDP ton cu c
nm gim xung mc 2%, tc l cn 36 nm GDP ton cu tng gp i.
Hin nay, c nhiu cch gii thch cho s tng trng ton cu chm hn, t phn b sai
ngun vn n vay n qu nhiu cho ti chuyn i nhn khu hc, v.v. Ti s cp n
hai trong s , s gi ha dn s v nng sut lao ng, bi v c hai u c bit gn b
vi cc tin b cng ngh.

S gi ha
Dn s th gii c d bo s tng t 7,2 t hin nay ln 8 t vo nm 2030 v 9 t vo nm
2050. iu ny s dn n s gia tng trong tng cu. Nhng cn c mt xu hng nhn
khu hc mnh m khc: s gi ha. Quan im ph bin l s gi ha ch yu nh hng
ti cc nc giu phng Ty. Tuy nhin khng hon ton nh th. T l sinh ang gim
di mc thay th trong nhiu khu vc trn th gii khng ch chu u ni m s suy
gim bt u, m cn hu ht Nam M v vng Carib, nhiu nc chu bao gm Trung
Quc v pha nam n , v thm ch c mt s quc gia Trung ng v Bc Phi nh Li-
bng, Ma Rc v Iran.

21
Tnh trng gi ha dn s l mt thch thc kinh t bi v tr khi tui ngh hu c tng ln
ng k nhng ngi gi trong x hi c th tip tc ng gp cho lc lng lao ng
(mt yu cu cp bchmang li nhiu li ch kinh t), dn s trong tui lao ng s gim
xung cng lc khi m t l nhng ngi ln tui ph thuc tng ln. Khi dn s gi i v c
t ngi tr hn, sc mua cc mt hng t tin nh nh ca, ni tht, t v cc thit b
gim i. Ngoi ra, dng nh s c t ngi phi i mt vi ri ro kinh doanh hn, bi v
ngi lao ng khi gi i c xu hng bo ton ti sn m h cn c th ngh hu thoi
mi, hn l u t vo vic kinh doanh mi. iu ny c phn c cn bng bi vic ngi
lao ng ngh hu v gim s tin tit kim tch ly ca h, trong tnh gp li s h
thpmc tit kim v t sut u t.
Nhng thi quen v m hnh ny ng nhin c th thay i, bi v cc x hi gi ha cng
bin chuyn thch ng, nhng xu hng chung l mt th gii gi ha c nh sn l s
tng trng chm hn, tr khi cuc cch mng cng ngh kch thch tng trng ln trong
nng sut, c nh ngha n gin l kh nng lm vic thng minh hn ch khng phi
lm vic nhiu hn.
Cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t m ra cho chng ta kh nng sng lu hn, khe
mnh hn v nng ng hn. V chng ta ang sng trong mt x hi m hn mt phn t s
tr em sinh ra ngy nay ti cc nn kinh t tin tin c k vng l s sng ti 100 tui,
chng ta s phi suy ngh li v cc vn nh dn s trong tui lao ng, vn hu tr
v k hoch cuc sng c nhn.[16] Kh khn m nhiu quc gia ang gp phi trong nhng
n lc tho lun v cc vn ny ch l mt du hiu na ca vic chng ta khng c
chun b nhn bit y v ch ng v sc mnh ca s thay i.

Nng sut
Trong thp k qua, nng sut trn th gii (d c o nh nng sut lao ng hay nng sut
cc nhn t tng hp (TFP)) vn tng mt cch chm chp, bt chp s tng trng theo cp
s nhn ca tin b cng ngh v u t vo i mi.[17] Biu hin gn y nht ca nghch
l nng sut s tht bi trong nhn thc v vic i mi cng ngh s dn n nng sut
cao hn l mt trong nhng b n ln v kinh t hin nay, y li thi im bt u ca
cuc i suy thoi v trc, v khng c li gii thch tha ng no cho iu ny.
Xt ti Hoa K, ni c nng sut lao ng tng bnh qun 2,8% t nm 1947 n 1983, v
2,6% t nm 2000 n 2007, so vi 1,3% t 2007 n 2014.[18] Phn ln ca s gim st
ny l do mc TFP thp, thc o ph bin nht cho s ng gp vo nng sut c ngun
gc t cng ngh v i mi. Cc Thng k lao ng M ch ra rng tng trng TFP t
2007 n 2014 ch mc 0,5%, gim ng k nu so vi mc 1,4% tng trng mi nm
trong giai on 1995 n 2007.[19] S st gim nng sut ny c bit c quan tm khi
m n xy ra trong thi im 50 cng ty ln nht nc M tch ly ti sn tin mt vi

22
s lng hn 1 nghn t USD, mc d li sut thc ch dao ng quanh 0% trong gn nm
nm.[20]
Nng sut l nhn t quyt nh quan trng nht cho tng trng di hn v nng cao mc
sng, do vy nu thiu n trong sut cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t th c ngha l
tng trng v mc sng s t c ci thin hn. Vy lm sao chng ta c th dung ha
c cc d liu biu th s suy gim nng sut, vi trin vng vo mt mc nng sut cao
hn c xu hng lin quan n s pht trin theo cp s nhn ca cng ngh v s i mi?
Mt lp lun c bn tp trung vo thch thc trong o lng u vo v u ra, v t
nhn thc r v nng sut. Cc hng ha v dch v sng to c to ra trong cuc cch
mng cng nghip ln th t c nhng chc nng v cht lng cao hn ng k, hin
c lu thng trn cc th trng m c bn khc vi nhng th trng chng ta thng
dng o lng. Nhiu hng ha v dch v mi l khng i th, c chi ph cn bin
bng khng v/hoc khai thc cc th trng cnh tranh cao thng qua cc nn tng k thut
s, tt c u dn n mc gi thp hn. Di cc iu kin ny, nhng thng k truyn
thng ca chng ta c th s tht bi trong vic nm bt gi tr tng thc t do thng d tiu
dng cha c phn nh trong tng doanh thu hoc mc li nhun cao hn.
Hal Varian, nh kinh t trng ca Google, ch ra nhiu v d khc nhau nh hiu qu
tng lnkhi gi mt chic taxi thng qua ng dng in thoi di ng hay thu mt chic xe
nh sc mnh ca nn kinh t theo yu cu. C rt nhiu dch v tng t khc m ngi s
dng c xu hng nng cao hiu qu v v t tng nng sut. Tuy nhin, v v c bn l
min ph nn chng mang li nhng gi tr khng ong m cti nh cng nh trong
cng vic. iu ny to ra s khc bit gia gi tr c to ra thng qua mt dch v c th
i lp vi tng trng thng c o lng da trn thng k quc gia. N cng gi
rng chng ta ang thc s sn xut v tiu th hiu qu hn so vi nhng iu m cc ch
s kinh t ca chng ta th hin. [21]
Mt lp lun khc l, trong khi nng sut t c t cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th ba
c thang suy yu thc s, nhng th gii vn cha tri qua s bng n nng sut c to
ra bi ln sng cng ngh mi ang din ra trong tm im cuc cch mng cng nghip ln
th t.
Tht vy, l mt ngi lc quan thc dng, ti cm thy r rng rng chng ta ch ang
giai on u c th cm nhn c cc tc ng tch cc m cuc cch mng cng
nghip ln th t c th mang li cho th gii. Nim lc quan ca ti xut pht t ba ngun
chnh.
Th nht, cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t mang li c hi hp nht cc nhu cu
cha c p ng ca 2 t ngi vo nn kinh t ton cu, dn n cc nhu cu tng thm
cho cc sn phm v dch v sn c, bng cch trao quyn v kt ni cc c nhn v cng
ng trn ton th gii vi nhau.

23
Th hai, cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t s lm tng ng k kh nng gii quyt cc
tc ng ngoi bin tiu cc ca chng ta v, trong qu trnh , s thc y tim nng tng
trng kinh t. Ly v d kh thi cc bon, mt tc ng ngoi bin tiu cc c bn. Cho n
gn y, u t xanh ch hp dn khi c hng tr cp ln t chnh ph. iu ny ngy
cng khng ng. Cc tin b cng ngh nhanh chng v nng lng ti to, tit kim nhin
liu v d tr nng lng khng ch lm cho u t trong nhng lnh vc nyngy cng c
li nhun, thc y tng trng GDP, m cn gp phn gim nh bin i kh hu, mt trong
nhng thch thc ton cu ln ca thi i chng ta.
Th ba, nh ti s bn n trong phn tip theo, cc nh lnh o doanh nghip, chnh ph
v x hi dn s m ti tip xc u ni vi ti rng h ang u tranh thay i t chc
ca h c th khai thc y cc hiu qu m nng lc s mang li. Chng ta vn ang
giai on u ca cuc cch mng cng ngh ln th t, v n s i hi cc cu trc kinh
t v t chc hon ton mi nm bt y gi tr ca n.
Tht vy, ti cho rng cc quy tc cnh tranh ca cc nn kinh t trong cuc cch mng cng
nghip ln th t l khc vi cc giai on trc. gi th cnh tranh, c cc cng ty v
quc gia u phi t ti gii hn ca s i mi trong mi hnh thc, iu c ngha l
cc chin lc tp trung ch yu vo vic gim chi ph s km hiu qu hn so vi cc chin
lc da trn vic cung cp cc sn phm v dch v vi nhng cch thc sng to hn. Nh
chng ta thy ngy nay, cc cng ty thnh lp t trc ang chu nhng p lc tt cng
gy ra bi cc nhn t ph v v i mi mi ni t cc ngnh cng nghip v c cc nc
khc. iu tng t c th ng i vi cc quc gia khng nhn ra s cn thit phi tp
trung xy dng h sinh thi i mi mt cch ph hp.
Tm li, ti tin rng s kt hp gia cc nhn t v mt cu trc (n qu ln v nhng x hi
gi ha dn s) v cc yu t v mt h thng (s ra i ca nn tng v nn kinh t theo yu
cu, chi ph cn bin gim dn ngy cng hp l, v.v) s buc chng ta phi vit li cc
quyn sch gio khoa v kinh t. Cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t c c tim nng
thc y tng trng kinh t ng thi gim nh mt s nhng thch thc ton cu ch yu
m tt c chng ta phi i mt. Tuy nhin, chng ta cng cn nhn thc v gii quyt cc
tc ng tiu cc ca n, c bit l i vi bt bnh ng, vic lm v th trng lao ng.

3.1.2. Vic lm
Mc d cng ngh c nhng tc ng tch cc tim nng i vi tng trng kinh t, nhng
vn cn phi ch ra cc tc ng tiu cc c th c ca n, t nht l trong ngn hn, i vi
th trng lao ng. Nhng lo ngi v tc ng ca cng ngh i vi vic lm khng phi l
mi. Nm 1931, nh kinh t John Maynard Keynes cnh bo v tnh trng tht nghip
cng ngh ph bin do nhng pht minh ca chng ta v cc bin phpti a ho vic s
dng lao ng vt qu tc m chng ta c th tm c cch thc mi s dng lao

24
ng.[22] iu ny tng c chng minh l sai nhng s ra sao nu n li ng vi
thi im hin ti? Trong vi nm qua, cc cuc tranh lun c khi li bi hin tng
cc my tnh thay th cho mt s cng vic, c bit l k ton, th qu v tng i vin in
thoi.
Nhng l do gii thch ti sao cuc cch mng cng ngh mi s gy nhiu bin ng hn
cc cuc cch mng cng ngh trc y c cp n trong phn m u, l: tc
(mi th ang din ra vi mt tc nhanh cha tng c), phm vi nh hng v chiu
su (rt nhiu thay i cn bn ang din ra ng thi), v s bin i hon ton ca ton b
h thng.
Xem xt cc nhn t u tu ny, c mt iu chc chn: nhng cng ngh mi s lm
thay i ng k bn cht ca cng vic trn tt c cc ngnh cng nghip v ngnh ngh.
Nhng bt n c bn s tng cng vi tc khi s t ng ha thay th cho lao ng. N s
mt bao lu din ra v ri s i n u?
nm bt c n, chng ta cn hiu hai tc ngthay th m cng ngh to ra i vi vic
lm. u tin, l nhng hiu ng ph hy nh t ph cng ngh nhin liu v t ng
ha thay th vn cho lao ng, buc ngi lao ng phi ngh vic hoc chuyn i sang
cng vic khc. Th hai, tc ng ph hy ny c i km vi mt hiu ng t bnho m
trong nhu cu v hng ha v dch v mi tng ln v dn n s ra i ca nhng ngnh
ngh, cc loi hnh kinh doanh v thm ch cc ngnh cng nghip mi.
L con ngi, chng ta c kh nng thch ng v nhng k nng tuyt vi. Nhng vn ni
bt y l thi gian v mc m hiu ng t bn ho s thay th cc tc ng ph hy, v
vic thay th s din ra nhanh n th no.
C hai phe i lp nhau khi bn n tc ng ca cng ngh mi ni i vi th trng lao
ng: nhng ngi tin vo mt kt thc c hu ngi lao ng b thay th bi cng ngh s
tm c cng vic mi, v cng ngh s m ra mt k nguyn mi ca s thnh vng; v
nhng ngi tin rng n s dn n ngy tn th v x hi v chnh tr bng vic to ra tht
nghip cng ngh mt quy m ln. Lch s cho thy kt cc dng nh ang gia. Cu
hi l: Chng ta nn lm g thc y nhng kt qu tch cc v gip nhng th ang mc
kt trong qu trnh chuyn i?
ng l s i mi s loi b mt s cng vic, nhng cng vic ny c ln lt thay th
bi cng vic mi trong mt hot ng khc v c th l ti mt ni khc. Ly nng nghip
lm v d. Ti M, nng dn chim 90% lc lng lao ng vo u th k 19, nhng ngy
nay, t l ny ch cha n 2%. Vic tinh gin n tng ny din ra kh sun s, vi nhng
xo trn x hi v tht nghip c th mc ti thiu.
Nn kinh tng dng l mt v d v h sinh thi cng vic mi. N mi ch bt u t 2008
khi Steve Jobs, nh sng lp Apple, cho php cc nh pht trin bn ngoi to ra cc ng

25
dng cho iPhone. n gia nm 2015, nn kinh t ng dng ton cu k vng s to ra
doanh thu hn 100 t la, vt qua ngnh cng nghip in nh tn ti hn mt th k.
Nhng ngi lc quan v cng ngh thc mc: nu chng ta ngoi suy t qu kh, ti sao ln
ny n li khc? H tha nhn rng cng ngh c th gy xo trn nhng cng cho rng cui
cng th cng ngh vn lun ci thin nng sut v gip gia tng ca ci, tip dn n cc
nhu cu ln hn v hng ha, dch v v cc loi hnh cng vic mi tha mn cc nhu
cu . Bn cht lp lun ny c ngha l nhu cu v mong mun ca con ngi l v hn
nn qu trnh p ng cng phi l v hn. Ngoi tr nhng suy thoi bnh thng v nhng
tr tr khng thng xuyn, s lun c vic lm cho tt c mi ngi.
Bng chng no s h tr cho iu ny v n ni ln iu g vi chng ta v nhng th
pha trc? Cc du hiu sm ch ra rng mt ln sng i mi thay th lao ngc th s
xy ra trong nhng thp k ti trn nhiu ngnh cng nghip v cc loihnh cng vic.

S thay th lao ng
Nhiu loi hnh cng vic khc nhau, c bit l nhng cng vic c lin quan n lao ng
chn tay vn hnh c hc v i hi tnh chnh xc, c t ng ha. Nhiu cng vic
khc s tip ni, bi v sc mnh my tnh cng ang tip tc pht trin theo cp s nhn.
Sm hn hu ht cc d on, cng vic ca cc ngnh ngh khc nhau nh lut s, cc nh
phn tch ti chnh, bc s, nh bo, k ton, bo lnh bo him hoc cn b th vin c th
c t ng ha mt phn hoc hon ton.
Cho n nay, mt s tht ang din ra, l: Cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t dng
nh to ra t vic lm hn trong cc ngnh cng nghip mi so vi cc cuc cch mng
trc. Theo c tnh ca Chng trnh Cng ngh v Vic lm Oxford Martin, ch 0,5% lc
lng lao ng M ang lm vic trong cc ngnh cng nghip m thi im chuyn giao
th k vn cha xut hin, mt t l rt thp so vi khong 8% vic lm mi c to ra
trong cc ngnh cng nghip mi t nhng nm 1980 v 4,5% vic lm mi c to ra
trong nhng nm 1990. iu ny c chng thc gn y bi Tng cc iu tra Kinh t
M, trong lm r c mi quan h gia cng ngh v tnh trng tht nghip. Nghin
cu ny cho thy rng s i mi thng tin v cc cng ngh t ph c xu hng nng cao
nng sut bng cch thay th ngi lao ng hin c, hn l to ra cc sn phm mi cn
thm lao ng sn xut chng.
Hai nh nghin cu t Trng Oxford Martin, kinh t gia Carl Benedikt Frey v chuyn gia
my hc Michael Osborne, lng ha tc ng tim nng ca i mi cng ngh i vi
tht nghip bng cch xp hng 702 ngnh ngh khc nhau theo kh nng b t ng ha, t
t c nguy c b t ng ha nht (0 tng ng vi khng c nguy c no) n nhiu nguy
c nht (1 tng ng vi nguy c chc chn cng vic s b thay th bi mt s loi my

26
tnh).[23] Trong Bng 2 di y, ti nu r mt s ngnh ngh c kh nng b t ng
ha nht, v nhng ngnh ngh t kh nng nht.
Nghin cu ny kt lun rng khong 47% tng s vic lm M c nguy c b t ng ha,
c th l trong mt hoc hai thp k tip theo, c c trng bi phm vi rng ln ca s
suy gim vic lm vi mt tc nhanh hn so vi nhng thay i m th trng lao ng
tri qua trong cc cuc cch mng cng nghip trc y. Ngoi ra, xu hng sp ti l
s phn cc mnh hn trong th trng lao ng. Vic lm s tng theo hng cc cng vic
tr tu v sng to c thu nhp cao v cng vic chn tay c thu nhp thp, nhng s gim
ng k i vi cc cng vic thng nht, lp i lp li c thu nhp trung bnh.

Bng 2: V d v cc ngnh ngh c kh nng t ng ha cao nht v thp

nht
C kh nng t ng ha nht
Xc sut Ngnh ngh
0.99 in thoi vin
0.99 Ngi khai thu
0.98 Gim nh bo him, nh gi thit hi
0.98 Ngi phn x, Trng ti, v Cc vin chc khc trong lnh vc th
thao
0.98 Th k php l
0.97 Tip vin hng khng, Nh hng, Lounge, v Qun c ph
0.97 Mi gii bt ng sn
0.97 Nh thu lao ng
0.96 Th k v tr l hnh chnh, tr php l, y t & iu hnh
0.94 Ngi a th

t c kh nng t ng ha nht
Xc sut Ngnh ngh
0.0031 Nhn vin x hi chm sc bnh nhn c vn v sc khe tinh thn
v lm dng cht gy nghin
0.0040 Bin o ma
0.0042 Thy thuc v bc s phu thut
0.0043 Nh tm l hc
0.0055 Qun l nhn s
0.0065 Phn tch h thng my tnh
0.0077 Nh nhn chng hc v kho c hc

27
0.0100 K s tu bin v kin trc s hi qun
0.0130 Qun l bn hng
0.0150 Gim c iu hnh
Ngun: Carl Benedikt Frey v Michael Osborne, i hc Oxford, 2013

Tht th v khi nhn ra rng khng ch c kh nng ngy cng tng ca cc thut ton, r bt
v cc hnh thc ti sn phi nhn loi khc ang nh hng cho s thay th ny. Michael
Osborne nhn xt rng mt yu t quan trng to iu kin cho t ng ha chnh l thc
tnhng nm gn y, cc cng ty tch cc lm vic nh v tt hn v n gin ha
cc cng vicnh mt phn trong nhng n lc ca h trong vic thu lao ng bn ngoi
hay ti nc ngoi v cho php cc vic lm ny c thc hin nh l vic lm k thut
s (chng hn nh thng qua Mechanical Turk ca Amazon, hay dch v MTurk, mt th
trng cung ng lao ng trn internet). S n gin ha vic lm ny c ngha l cc thut
ton c nhiu kh nng thay th con ngi hn bi v ngi ta c th gim st tt hn cc
nhim v ring bit, c xc nh r, v cng to ra mt nn tng tt hn nh nhng d liu
cht lng cao hn xung quanh nhim v, do m t cc thut ton c th c thit k
thc hin cc cng vic.
Suy ngh v t ng ha v hin tng thay th, chng ta c th chng li s cm d ca t
duy phn cc v tc ng ca cng ngh i vi vic lm v tng lai ca vic lm. Nh
nghin cu ca Frey v Osborne cho thy rng gn nh l khng th trnh khi nhng tc
ng to ln ca cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t i vi th trng lao ng v cc
ni lm vic trn ton th gii. Nhng iu ny khng c ngha l chng ta phi i mt
vitnh th tin thoi lng nan: con ngi-chng li-my mc. Trn thc t, trong a s cc
trng hp, s kt hp ca cc cng ngh k thut s, vt l v sinh hc s nh hng
nhng thay i hin nay nng cao cht lng ngun lao ng v nhn thc, c ngha l cc
nh lnh o cn chun b lc lng lao ng v pht trin cc m hnh gio gic c th
lm vic cng nhng thit b my mc ngy cng c nng lc, c kt ni v thng minh
hn.

Tc ng i vi k nng
Trong tng lai gn, cc vic lm c nguy c t ng ha thp s l nhng vic lm i hi
k nng x hi v sng to; c bit, l cc vic cn ra quyt nh trong tnh trng khng
chc chn v cc vic pht trin nhng tng mi l.
Tuy nhin, iu ny c th khng ko di. Hy xem xt mt trong nhng ngh sng to nht
ngh vit v s ra i ca my vit t ng. Cc thut ton phc tp c th sng to nn
cc bn vit theo bt k phong cch no ph hp vi nhng i tng c th. Ni dung c
my to rali ging con ngi n mc m trong th nghim gn y thc hin bi The
New York Times ch ra rng khi c hai on vn tng t, ngi ta khng th phn bit
c on vn no l do ngi vit v on vn no l sn phm ca r bt. Cng ngh cng
28
ang pht trin qu nhanh ti mc Kristian Hammond, ngi ng sng lp Narrative
Science, mt cng ty chuyn v my vit t ng, d on rng n gia nhng nm 2020,
90% cc tin tc c th s c to ra bi mt thut ton, m hu ht l khng c bt k s
can thip no ca con ngi (tt nhin l tr vic thit k cc thut ton).[24]
Trong mt mi trng lm vic pht trin nhanh chng nh vy, kh nng d on xu hng
vic lm trong tng lai v cc nhu cu v kin thc v k nng cn thit thch ng tr
nn quan trng hn ht. Cc xu hng ny thay i theo ngnh cng nghip v vng a l,
v v vy iu quan trng l phi hiu c trng ca cc ngnh cng nghip v quc gia - kt
qu ca cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t.
TrongBo co Tng lai ca vic lmca Din n, chng ti yu cu cc cn b ph
trch ngun nhn lc ca 10 ngnh cng nghip v 15 nn kinh t s dng nhiu lao ng
nht hin nay hnh dung cc tc ng i vi vic lm, cng vic v k nng n nm 2020.
Hnh 1 cho thy nhng ngi tr li kho st tin rng k nng gii quyt cc vn phc
tp, k nng x hi v h thng s c yu cu nhiu hn vo nm 2020 so vi cc k nng
th cht v k thut. Bo co cho thy rng nm nm ti s l mt giai on chuyn i quan
trng: trin vng vic lm nhn chung khng thay i nhng s c nhng bin ng vic lm
ng k trong cc ngnh cng nghip v nhng k nng trong hu ht cc ngnh ngh. Trong
khi tin lng v s cn bng cng vic-cuc sng c k vng s c ci thin i cht ti
hu ht cc ngnh ngh, nhng an ton vic lm d kin s ti t hnmt na cc ngnh
cng nghip c kho st. Cng r rng l n gii v nam gii s b nh hng khc nhau,
c kh nng lm trm trng thm s bt bnh ng gii (xem Hp A: Khong cch Gii tnh
v Cuc Cch mng Cng nghip Ln th t).

Hnh 1: Nhu cu k nng nm 2020

29
 Quy m ca
nhu cu k
nng vo 2020

Kh nng nhn thc

K nng h thng
Gii quyt vn phc tp
K nng ni dung
K nng quy trnh
K nng x hi
K nng qun l ngun lc
K nng k thut
Nng lc th cht

nhu cu k nng tng nhu cu k nng n nhu cu k nng gim

nh

Ngun: Bo co v tng lai vic lm, Din n Kinh t th gii

Hp A: Khong cch Gii tnh v Cuc Cch mng Cng nghip Ln th t

Bo co Khong cch Gii tnh Ton cu2015ti bn ln th 10 ca Din n Kinh t Th

gii tit l hai xu hng ng lo ngi. u tin, vi tc hin ti ca s pht trin, s mt
118 nm bnh ng gii v kinh t t c trn ton th gii. Th hai, s pht trin theo
hng bnh ng gii l kh chm, v c th b tr hon.

V th, vic xem xt tc ng ca cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t i vi khong

cch gii tnh l rt quan trng. Liu tc gia tng ca cc thay i trong cng ngh bao
trm c th gii vt l, k thut s v sinh hc nh hng nh th no n vai tr m n gii
c kh nng m nhn trong nn kinh t, chnh tr v x hi?

Mt cu hi quan trng cn xem xt l liu cc ngh nghip m ph n chim u th hay n

ng chim u th d b t ng ha hn. Bo co tng lai vic lmca Din n ch ra rng
c hai loi hnh u dng nh chu t l mt vic lm ng k. Trong khi c xu hng
tht nghip nhiu hn do t ng ha trong cc lnh vc m nam gii chim u th nh sn
xut, xy dng v lp t, th nng lc ngy cng cao ca tr thng minh nhn to v kh
nng s ha cc tc v trong cc ngnh cng nghip dch v ch ra rng mt lot cc cng
vic, t cc vic lm cc trung tm chm sc khch hng ti cc th trng mi ni (ngun
sinh k cho cc lng ln lao ng n gii tr l ngi lm vic tr ct trong gia nh) n
nhng vic lm trong lnh vc bn l v hnh chnh ti cc nn kinh t pht trin (mt cng
vic quan trng i vi ph n thu nhp di trung bnh), u c nguy c tng t.

30
Mt vic c nhng tc ng tiu cc trong nhiu hon cnh, nhng tc ng tch ly ca mt
vic ng k trn c cc loi cng vic thng c dnh cho ph n trong vic tip cn th
trng lao ng to ra mt mi quan ngi su sc. C th, n s khin cc h gia nh c
ngun thu nhp duy nht t ngi ph n c tay ngh thp gp ri ro, lm gim tng thu
nhp trong cc gia nh c hai ngun thu nhp, v ni rng khong cch v gii, vn vn
gy nhc nhi trn ton th gii.

Nhng v cc vai tr v loi cng vic mi th sao? Nhng c hi mi liu c cn dnh cho
ph n trong th trng lao ng ang bin i bi cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t.
Trong khi rt kh vch ra cc nng lc v k nng cn c trong cc ngnh cng nghip
vn cha c to nn, chng ta c th gi nh mt cch hp l rng nhu cu s tng i vi
cc k nng cho php ngi lao ng thit k, xy dng v lm vic cng vi h thng cng
ngh, hoc cc khu vc lp y cc khong trng li bi nhng i mi cng ngh.

Bi v nam gii vn c xu hng thng tr cc ngh lin quan n khoa hc my tnh, ton
hc v k thut, nhu cu tng ln i vi cc k nng k thut c th lm trm trng thm s
bt bnh ng gii. Tuy nhin nhu cu c th tng i vi nhng vai tr m my mc khng
th thc hin c v da vo nhng c im v kh nng ca con ngi nh lng cm
thng v trc n. Ph n vn chim u th trong nhiu ngnh ngh nh nh tm l hc, tr
liu, hun luyn vin, t chc s kin, y t v cc ngh nghip khc trong lnh vc y t.

Mt vn quan trng y l cc cng vic quay tr li tng i ng thi im v

cng sc b ra, i hi nhng nng lc k thut khc nhau, v bn cnh vn tn ti nguy
c m cc dch v c nhn v cc loi hnh vic lm m ph n chim u th hin nay s vn
b nh gi thp. Nu vy, cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t c th dn n s khc
bit r hn gia vai tr ca nam gii v n gii. y s l mt kt qu tiu cc ca cuc
cch mng cng nghip ln th t, bi v n s lm tng c bt bnh ng gii ni chung v
khong cch gii tnh, khin ph n kh cng hin ti nng ca h cho lc lng lao ng
trong tng lai. N cng mang li ri ro i vi cc gi tr c to ra bi s a dng ang
tng ln v nhng li ch m chng ta bit cc t chc c th t c t nhng sng to v
hiu quc nng caonh c cc i ng lao ng cn bng gii tnh tt c cc cp .
Rt nhiu c im v kh nng truyn thng lin quan ti ph n v cc ngh nghip dnh
cho n gii s tr nn cn thit hn trong thi i ca cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th
t.

Mc d chng ta khng th d on cc tc ng khc nhau m cuc cch mng cng nghip

ln th t mang li i vi nam gii v n gii, chng ta nn tn dng thi c t mt nn
kinh t ang bin i thit k li chnh sch lao ng v tp qun kinh doanh m bo
rng c nam gii v n gii u c hon ton trao quyn.

31
Trong th gii tng lai, nhiu vic lm v ngnh ngh mi s xut hin, khng ch
cnh hng bi cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t, m cn do cc yu t phi k
thut nh p lc dn s, thay i a chnh tr v cc chun mc x hi v vn ha mi.
Ngy nay, chng ta khng th lng trc c chnh xc nhng ngnh ngh l g nhng
ti tin rng ti nng s l yu t sn xut quan trng hn so vi vn. V l do ny, nhiu kh
nng s khan him ca mt lc lng lao ng c tay ngh, ch khng phi khan him vn
sn c, s tr thnh mt gii hn mo m i vi s i mi, kh nng cnh tranh v tng
trng.
iu ny c th lm pht sinh mt th trng vic lm ngy cng tch bit vi cc phn on
tay ngh thp/lng thp v tay ngh cao/lng cao, hoc nh nh vn ng thi l nh kinh
doanh phn mm Silicon Valley, Martin Ford,[25] d on mt s xi mntrong ton b nn
tng ca kim t thp k nng lm vic, s dn n s gia tng bt bnh ng v cng thng x
hi, tr khi chng ta chun b cho nhng thay i ny t ngy hm nay.
Nhng p lc ny cng s buc chng ra phi xem xt li nhng g chng ta ang cho l k
nng cao trong bi cnh cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t. Cc nh ngha truyn
thng v lao ng c k nng da vo s hin din ca nn gio dc tin tin v chuyn mn
ha, v mt tp hp cc nng lc c xc nh trong mt ngh nghip hoc mt lnh vc
chuyn mn. Vi tc thay i cng ngh anggia tng, cuc cch mng cng nghip ln
th t s i hi v yu cu tp trung hn vo nng lc ca ngi lao ng c th thch
ng lin tc, hc tpcc k nng v phng php tip cn mi trong mt lot cc bi cnh.
Bo co Tng lai ca Vic lmca Din n cng cho thy t hn 50% gim c ph trch
ngun nhn lc t nht l t tin mt cch hp l vi chin lc ngun nhn lc trong t chc
ca h chun b cho nhng thay i ny. Cc ro cn chnh c mt cch tip cn quyt
on hn, l: s thiu hiu bit ca cc cng ty v bn cht ca cc thay i t ph, t
hoc khng c s iu chnh gia chin lc ngun nhn lc v chin lc i mi cng ty,
hn ch ngun lc v p lc ngn hn v li nhun. H qu l tn ti s khng ph hp gia
quy m ca nhng thay i sp ti v cc hot ng kinh doanh bn l tng i c thc
hin bi cc cng ty gii quyt cc thch thc ny. Cc t chc i hi mt t duy mi
p ng nhu cu thu ht ti nng ca h v gim thiu cc hu qu x hi khng mong
mun.

Tc ng i vi cc nn kinh t ang pht trin

iu quan trng l phi suy ngm v ngha ca iu ny i vi cc nc ang pht trin.
Nhng giai on trc ca cuc cch mng cng nghip vn cha chm ti nhiu ngi dn
trn th gii, nhng ngi vn cha c tip cn vi in, nc sch, v sinh mi trng
v nhiu thit b c bn c dng trong cc nn kinh t tin tin. Mc d vy, cuc cch
mng cng nghip ln th t chc chn s tc ng n cc nn kinh t ang pht trin.

32
Cho n nay, tc ng ca cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t vn cn c lm r.
Trong nhng thp k gn y, mc d bt bnh ng trong cc nc c gia tng, nhng s
chnh lch gia cc nc li gim ng k. Liu cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t c
th gy ra o chiu s thu hp khong cch gia cc nn kinh t m chng ta thy cho
n nay v thu nhp, k nng, c s h tng, ti chnh v cc lnh vc khc? Hay cc cng
ngh v nhng bin i mau l s c khai thc nh th no pht trin v y nhanh
bc tin vt?
Nhng cu hi hc bany cn phi c quan tm ng vi yu cu ca n, ngay c ti thi
im m cc nn kinh t tin tin nht ang bn tm vi nhng thch thc ring ca h. Vic
m bo rng cc vng t rng ca th gii khng b b li pha sau khng phi l mt yu
cu v o c; l mt mc tiu quan trng v s gim thiu ri ro cho s bt n ton cu
gy ra bi nhng thch thc a chnh tr v an ninh, chng hn nh dng ngi di c.
Mt kch bn thch thc i vi cc nc thu nhp thp l cuc cch mng cng nghip ln
th t dn n vic cc nn kinh t tin tin a phn ln sn xut ton cu tr v vi cc
ngun lc trong nc (re-shoring), iu ny rt c kh nng xy ra khi vic tip cn lao ng
chi ph thp khng cn l nhn t cnh tranh ca cc doanh nghip. Kh nng pht trin cc
khu vc sn xut mnh m phc v nn kinh t ton cu da trn li th chi ph l mt
phng thc pht trin c s dng nhiu ln, trong cho php cc quc gia tch ly
vn, chuyn giao cng ngh v nng cao thu nhp. Nu con ng mn ny ng li, nhiu
quc gia s phi suy ngh li v m hnh v chin lc cng nghip ha ca h. Liu rng v
bng cch no cc nn kinh t c th tn dng c c hi ca cuc cch mng cng nghip
ln th t l mt vn ht sc quan trng vi th gii; iu thit yu l cc nghin cu v
cc kin ng gp cn c tip tc thc hin hiu, pht trin v p ng c chin
lc theo yu cu.
Mt nguy c i km cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t l hin tng ngi chin thng
kiu c n c s xut hin gia cc quc gia cng nh trong mi quc gia. iu ny s
lm tng thm cng thng v xung t x hi, v to ra mt th gii km gn kt nhng
nhiu bin ng hn, c bit l cho d ngy nay con ngi nhn thc nhiu hn v nhy
cm hn i vi cc bt cng x hi v chnh lch v iu kin sng gia cc nc khc
nhau. Tr khi cc nh lnh o trong khu vc cng cng nh t nhn m bo vi ngi dn
rng h ang thc hin cc chin lc ng tin cy ci thin i sng ca ngi dn, th
tnh trng bt n x hi, di c hng lot, v ch ngha cc oan bo lc vn c th gia tng,
v do to ra ri ro cho cc quc gia tt c cc giai on pht trin. iu quan trng l
ngi dn tin tng mt cch vng chc rng h c th tham gia vo cc cng vic c
ngha h tr bn thn v gia nh h, nhng iu g s xy ra nu khng nhu cu v lao
ng, hoc nu cc k nng sn c khng cn ph hp vi nhu cu?

3.1.3. Bn cht ca vic lm

33
S tri dy ca mt th gii ni m m hnh cng vic chim u th l mt lot nhng giao
dch gia mt ngi lao ng v mt cng ty, ch khng phi l cc mi quan h lu di,
c m t cch y 15 nm bi Daniel Pink trong cun sch Free Agent Nation (Quc gia
ca nhng tc nhn t do) ca ng.[26] Xu hng ny c tng tc ng k bi s i
mi cng ngh.
Ngy nay, nn kinh t theo yu cu ang lm thay i mt cch c bn mi quan h ca
chng ta vi cng vic v vi c cu x hi, ni n ang din ra. Nhiu nh tuyn dng ang
s dng m my nhn s thc hin cng vic ca h. Cc hot ng chuyn mn c
chia thnh cc nhim v c th v cc d n ring bit v sau c cp nht vo mt m
my o gm nhng ngi lao ng, ang khao kht cng vic, bt c ni no trn th gii.
y l nn kinh t theo yu cu mi, ni m ngi lao ng khng cn l ngi lm cng
theo ngha truyn thng m l ngi lao ng c lp thc hin cc nhim v c th. Nh
Arun Sundararajan, gio s ti Trng Kinh doanh Stern ti i hc New York (NYU), nhc
n trong mt mc ca t bo New York Times bi nh bo Farhad Manjoo: Cui cng,
chng ta c th c mt tng lai trong mt phn lc lng lao ng s lm mt lot cc
cng vic to ra thu nhp bn c th l mt li xe Uber, mt ngi mua sm trn
Instacart, mt ch nhtrongAirbnb v mt ngi kim vic lm trn ng dng
Taskrabbit.[27]
Cc li ch cho cc cng ty v c bit l nhng cng ty khi nghip ang pht trin nhanh
trong nn kinh t k thut s l r rng. V cc nn tng m my nhn s xp loi ngi lao
ng l ngi t lm ch, cc cng ty khi s khng b yu cu phi tr lng ti thiu,
thu s dng lao ng v phc li x hi. Theo gii thch ca Daniel Callaghan, gim c
iu hnh ca MBA & Company Anh, trong mt bi bo Financial Times: By gi bn c
th c bt c ai bn mun, bt c khi no bn mun, chnh xc theo cch bn mun. V bi
v h khng phi l ngi lm cng nn bn khng phi i mt vi cc rc ri v cc quy
nh v thu lao ng.[28]
i vi nhng ngi trong m my nhn s, li ch chnh nm s t do (lm vic hoc
khng) v kh nng di ng khng g snh c m h c hng bi v h thuc v mt
mng li o ton cu. Mt s ngi lao ng c lp coi y l s kt hp l tng gia rt
nhiu t do, t cng thng v s hi lng ln hn trong cng vic. Mc d m my nhn s
mi ch ang giai on trng nc, c nhng bng chng thc t l n ang ko theo
vic s dng ngun lc nc ngoi mt cch thm lng (thm lng bi v cc nn tng m
my nhn s khng phi k khai v khng cn phi tit l d liu ca h).
Liu y c phi l s khi u ca mt cuc cch mng vic lm mi v linh hot m s
trao quyn cho bt k c nhn no c kt ni internet, v s loi b tnh trng thiu k nng?
Hoc c phi n s kch hot s khi u ca mt cuc chy ua tn nhn n thng mt th
gii ca nhng cng ty o chuyn bc lt cng nhn v khng c kim sot? Nu cu tr

34
li l v sau mt th gii ca nhng ngi lao ng bp bnh (precariat)2, mt tng lp x
hi nhng ngi lao ng chuyn t vic ny sang vic khc kim sng trong khi khng
c quyn lao ng, quyn thng lng v an ton ngh nghip liu iu ny c to ra
ngun gc tim n ca nhng bt n x hi v bt n chnh tr? Cui cng, liu s pht trin
ca m my nhn s c th ch n thun y mnh t ng ha cng vic ca con ngi?
Thch thc m chng ta phi i mt l cn phi to ra cc hnh thc mi ca nhng tha
thun x hi v vic lm, ph hp vi s thay i ca lc lng lao ng v s tin trin v
bn cht ca vic lm. Chng ta phi hn ch nhng nhc im ca cc m my nhn s
v mt kh nng khai thc, trong khi khng lm gim s tng trng ca th trng lao ng
v cng khng ngn chn ngi lao ng lm vic theo cch m h la chn. Nu chng ta
khng lm c iu ny, cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t c th s dn n mt ti
ca vic lmtrong tng lai, iu m Lynda Gratton, mt gio s v thc hnh qun l ti
Trng Kinh doanh London m t trong cun sch The Shift: The Future of Work is Already
Here mt mc cao hn ca s chia tch, c lp v loi tr trong cc x hi.[29]
Nh ti nu trong sut cun sch ny, s la chn l ca chnh chng ta. N hon ton
ph thuc vo cc quyt nh chnh sch v th ch m chng ta a ra. Tuy nhin, mt iu
cn phi ch l c th s c mt khong trng quy nh, do cn ti khng nh nng lc
ca cc nh hoch nh chnh sch trong qu trnh ny v cn thc y nhng n lc thch
ng ca mt h thng phc tp.

Tm quan trng ca mc ch
Chng ta cng cn phi nh rng ti nng v k nng khng phi l tt c. Cng ngh cho
php hiu qu cao hn, iu m hu ht mi ngi u mun. Tuy nhin h cng mun cm
thy rng h khng ch n thun l mt phn ca qu trnh m l mt iu g ln hn
chnh bn thn h. Karl Marx by t mi lo ngi ca mnh rng qu trnh chuyn mn ha
s lm gim ngha ca mc ch m tt c chng ta u tm kim t cng vic, trong khi
Buckminster Fuller cnh bo rng cc ri ro ca tnh trng chuyn mn ha qu mc c
xu hng dng cc tm kim iu chnh quy m rng v do ngn cn nhng pht hin
mi v cc nguyn tc khi qut ha ton nng.[30]
Gi y, i mt vi s kt hp ca tnh phc tp gia tng v siu chuyn mn ha, chng ta
ang thi im m mong mun lm cc cng vic c mc ch ang tr thnh mt vn
ln. iu ny c bit ng vi th h tr, nhng ngi thng cm thy rng cng vic ca

2
Precariat l thut ng c nh kinh t hc ngi Anh Guy Standing a ra, m t mt nhm
ngi cm thy khng an tm v ngh nghip, cng ng ca h v cuc sng ni chung. Nhm
ngi ny ngy cng tng. C th l nhng ngi lm vic bn thi gian, ngi nhn lng ti
thiu, lao ng nc ngoi tm thi, ngi lm vic khng c vn phng v khng c im dng,
ngi cao nin cht vt vi li ch ngy cng thu hp, ngi bn x b y ra ngoi, cc b m n
thn khng ni nng ta, th h khng c v khng mun lng hu hay ngh hu.
35
cc cng ty lm hn ch kh nng tm thy ngha v mc ch trong cuc sng ca h.
Trong mt th gii m ranh gii ang dn bin mt v cc kht vng lm vic ang thay i,
con ngi khng ch mun cn bng cng vic-cuc sng m cn mun s kt hp hi ha
gia cng vic v cuc sng. Ti lo ngi rng tng lai ca vic lm s ch cho php mt s
t c nhn t c s trn vn .

3.2. Doanh nghip

C nhng bng chng r rng rng cc cng ngh lm nn tng cho cuc cch mng cng
nghip ln th t ang c mt tc ng ln n cch cc doanh nghip c dn dt, thnh
lp v huy ng ngun lc. Ngoi nhng thay i trong cc m hnh tng trng, th th
trng lao ng v tng lai ca cng vic s nh hng mt cch t nhin n tt c cc t
chc. Mt du hiu c th ca hin tng ny l tui th trung bnh ca mt cng ty nim
yt trong danh sch S&P 500 st gim mc lch s t khong 60 xung cn xp x
18.[31] Mt v d khc l s thay i trong khong thi gian cn c mt cng ty mi c
th chim lnh th trng v t mc doanh thu ng k. Facebook mt su nm t doanh
thu 1 t USD mi nm, v Google ch cn nm nm. Khng cn nghi ng rng cc cng
ngh mi ni, hu nh lun c h tr v kch hot bi cc tnh nng k thut s, ang gia
tng tc v quy m ca s thay i cho cc doanh nghip.
Mt ch c bn trong cc cuc tr chuyn ca ti vi nhng CEO ton cu v cc qun l
doanh nghip cp cao l vic gia tng i mi v tc ca s ph v rt kh nhn thc
thu o hay d on v y l ngun to ra nhng s ngc nhin bt tn, ngay c khi thng
tin c sn trn ngp ngy nay. Trong mt bi cnh nh vy, chnh kh nng ca mt nh lnh
o trong vic lin tc hc hi, thch nghi v thch thc cc m hnh quan nim v m hnh
hot ng thnh cng ca mnh s gip nhn ra th h tip theo ca nhng doanh nghip
thnh t.
V vy, im ch u tin v tc ng kinh doanh to bi cuc cch mng cng nghip ln
th t l s cn thit phit nhn vo chnh mnh nh mt nh lnh o kinh doanh v ti cc
t chc ca mnh. Liu rng c bng chng v vic t chc v nng lc lnh o cn phi
hc hi v thay i? C phi tn ti mt nguyn mu v c cc quyt nh u t thnh cng
vt bc? Liu rng mt nn vn ha chp nhn i mi m li tht bi khng? Tt c mi
th ti thy ch ra rng xu hng ny s ch i nhanh hn, nhng thay i s l c bn, v
do cuc hnh trnh ny s i hi mt ci nhn nghim khc v trung thc vo chnh nng
lc ca cc t chc trong vic hot ng vi s mau l v nhanh nhy hn.

Cc ngun ca s ph v

36
Nhng ngun a dng ca s ph v ang to nn cc hnh thi khc nhau trong tc ng
kinh doanh. V pha cung, nhiu ngnh cng nghip ang chng kin s xut hin ca cc
cng ngh mi gip sng to nn nhng cch thc hon ton mi trong vic p ng cc nhu
cu hin ti v lm ph v ng k cc chui gi tr hin c. V d th c rt nhiu. Cng
ngh lu tr v in ton mng li (grid) mi trong lnh vc nng lng s y nhanh s
chuyn dch v pha nhng ngun phn cp nhiu hn. Vic p dng rng ri cng ngh in
3D s lm cho phn phi sn xut v bo tr ph tng d dng hn v r hn. Thng tin v
cc tin tc theo thi gian thc cung cp ci nhn ring bit v nhng khch hng v hiu sut
ti sn m s gip m rng cc xu hng cng ngh khc.
S ph v cng c lan truyn t nhng t i th cnh tranh nhanh nhy v y sng kin,
nhng ngi ny, nh tip cn cc nn tng k thut s ton cu trong nghin cu, pht trin,
tip th, bn hng v phn phi, c th ht cng nhng cng ty truyn thng trn th trng
nhanh hn bao gi ht v h c th ci thin cht lng, tc v gi c ca hng ha m h
cung cp. y l l do ti sao nhiu nh lnh o doanh nghip xem xt mi e da ln nht
ca h l i th cnh tranh vn cha c nh gi ng mc. Tuy nhin, s l mt sai lm
khi ngh rng s ri lon cnh tranh s ch ti thng qua cc doanh nghip khi nghip (start-
up). S ha cng cho php cc cng ty ln ang hot ng trong ngnh vt qua ranh gii
cng nghip bng cch tn dng nn tng khch hng, c s h tng hoc cng ngh ca h.
ng thi ca cc cng ty vin thng hng vo phn khc chm sc sc khe v my mc
t ng l nhng v d cho iu ny. Kch thc doanh nghip c th vn l mt li th cnh
tranh nu c tn dng mt cch thng minh.
S thay i ln v pha cu cng ang gy ra t ph trong kinh doanh: v yu cu minh
bch cng s gn kt ngy mt nhiu hn ca ngi tiu dng v vic c thm cc m hnh
mi v hnh vi ca ngi tiu dng (ngy cng xy dng da trn s truy cp vo cc mng
di ng v d liu) bt buc cc cng ty thch ng theo cch h thit k, qung co, v
phn phi sn phm v dch v hin c cng nh sn phm v dch v mi.
Nhn chung, ti thy rng tc ng ca cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t i vi doanh
nghipging nh l mt s thay i khng lay chuyn c t vic s ha n gin, c
trng ca cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th ba,ti mt hnh thc i mi phc tp hn
da trn s kt hp ca nhiu cng ngh theo nhng cch mi l. iu ny buc cc cng ty
phi xem xt li cch h lm kinh doanh v s dng cc hnh thc lm vic khc nhau. i
vi mt s cng ty, vic pht trin kinh doanh mi trong nhng phn khc lin k c th
gip thu c nhng khon trng vng mi, trong khi i vi nhng ngi khc, l
v xc nh xem nn thay i cc khon u t trong cc lnh vc hin c.
Tuy nhin,im mu cht vn c gi nguyn. l nhng ngi ng u doanh nghip
v cc nh iu hnh cp cao cn phi hiu rng s ph v nh hng n c pha cung v
cu ca doanh nghip h. Quay tr li th iu ny buc h phi thch thc cc gi nh ca

37
cc nhm iu hnh ca h v tm ra nhng cch thc mi lm vic. Tm li, h phi i
mi lin tc.

Bn tc ng ln
Cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t c bn tc ng chnh ln doanh nghip khp cc
ngnh:
- Nhng k vng ca khch hng ang thay i
- Sn phm ang c nng cao cht lngnh cc d liu, gip tng nhng ti sn
sinh li
- Quan h i tc mi ang c hnh thnh do cc cng ty hiu c tm quan trng
ca nhng hnh thc hp tc mi, v
- Cc m hnh iu hnh ang c chuyn i thnh nhng m hnh k thut s mi.

3.2.1 K vng ca khch hng

Khch hng, cho d l nhng c nhn (B2C) hoc cc doanh nghip (B2B), ang ngy cng
gi v tr trung tm trong nn kinh t k thut s, l tt c nhng g thuc v cch thc m
h c phc v. Nhng mong i ca khch hng ang c nh ngha li da trnnhng
tri nghim. V d,nhng tri nghim ca khch hng tcng ty Apple khng ch l v cch
m ta s dng sn phm m cn v bao b, thng hiu, mua sm v cc dch v khch hng.
Do , Apple ang xc nh li nhng k vng l phibao gm s tri nghim sn phm
ca khch hng.
Cc phng php tip cn truyn thng ti phn khc nhn khu hc ang chuyn hng
sangxc nh mc tiu thng qua cc tiu ch k thut s, ni m khch hng tim nng c
th c xc nh da trn s sn sng ca h trong chia s d liu v tng tc. Khivic
chuyn i tng tc t ngi s hu sang tip cn s hu (c bit l cc thnh ph),
thvic xc nhn gi tr s l cn thit chia s d liu. V d, n chia s t s i hi
s tch hp ca thng tin c nhn v ti chnh trnkhp cc cng ty hot ng trong nhng
lnh vc t ng ha, tin ch, truyn thng v ngn hng.
Hu ht cc cng ty u tuyn b khch hng l trung tm, nhng tuyn b ca h s bth
thchkhi d liu v phn tch theo thi gian thc c p dng theo cch m h nh v v
phc v khch hng ca mnh. Thi i k thut s c ngha l tip cn v s dng d liu,
ci tin cc sn phm v tri nghim, v bc ti mt th gii ca nhng iu chnh v ci
bin lin tc trong khi vn m bo rng tng tc con ngi vn l trung tm ca qu trnh
ny.
Chnh kh nng khai thc nhiu ngun d liu t c nhn ti ngh nghip, t li sng n
hnh vi gip cung cp nhng hiu bit su sc v cuc hnh trnh mua sm ca khch

38
hng, iu m chng ta khng th tng tng c cho n gn y. Ngy nay, d liu v
s liu cung cp nhng hiu bit quan trng trong thi gian gn nh thc v v nhu cu v
hnh vi ca khch hng gip nh hng cc quyt nh tip th v bn hng.
Xu hng ny ca s ha l ang hng v yu cu minh bch hn, c ngha l nhiu d liu
hn trong chui cung ng, nhiu d liu hn trong tm tay ca ngi tiu dng v do to
ra nhiu s so snh ngang hng gia nhng ngi tiu dng v hiu nng ca cc sn phm,
th gip chuyn quyn lc cho ngi tiu dng. V d nh, cc trang web so snh gi c
khin vic so snh gi c, cht lng dch v v hiu qu hot ng ca sn phm tr nn d
dng. Vi mt c nhp chut hoc vut tay, ngi tiu dng ngay lp tc quay lng vi mt
thng hiu, nh bn l dch v hoc k thut s chuyn sang ni khc. Cc cng ty
khng cn c th trn trnh trch nhim do hot ng km. Ti sn thng hiu l gii
thng kh ginh c nhng li d dng b nh mt. iu ny s ch c m rng ra
trong mt th gii minh bch hn.
Xt trn mt quy m rng ln, th h Millennial3 ang thit lp nhng xu hng tiu dng.
Chng ta hin ang sng trong mt th gii theo nhu cu ni m 30 t tin nhn WhatsApp
c gi i mi ngy [32] v ni 87% thanh nin M ni rng chic in thoi thng minh
ca h khng bao gi ri khi tm tay h v 44% s dng chc nng my nh ca h hng
ngy.[33] y l mt th gii m l hu nh xoay quanh chia s ngang hng peer-to-peer v
ni dung do ngi dng to ra. l mt th gii ca ngay lc ny: mt th gii ca thi
gian thc ni m nhng ch dn giao thng c a ra ngay lp tc v hng tp ha c
gi trc tip n ngay ca ca bn. "Th gii ngay lc ny" i hi cc cng ty phi phn
ng trong thi gian thc ti bt c ni no h hay khch hng hoc khch hng ca h
yu cu.
S l mt sai lm nu cho rng iu ny b gii hn chtrong cc nn kinh t c thu nhp cao.
Ly vic mua sm trc tuyn ti Trung Quc lm v d. Vo ngy 11 thng 11 nm 2015,
ngy c Tp on Alibaba t tn l ngy c thn, dch v thng mi in t phi
x l cc giao dch trc tuyn c trgi hn 14 t USD, vi 68% doanh s bn hng qua cc
phng tin in thoi di ng.[34] Mt v d khc l ti tiu vng Sahara chu Phi, khu vc
tng trng nhanh nht trn th gii v s lng thu bao in thoi di ng, ang chng t
rngkt ni internet trn nn tng in thoi di ng i tt n u thay cho truy cp internet
trn mng dy nh th no. Hip hi Vin thng Di ng Ton cu GSM k vng c thm
240 triu ngi s dng Internet trn thit b di ng khu vc chu Phi cn Sahara trong
nm nm tip theo.[35] V trong khi cc nn kinh t tin tin c t l thm nhp cao nht ca
phng tin truyn thng x hi, ng , ng Nam v Trung M li l nhng nc c
t l ny trn mc trung bnh ton cu 30% v ang tng trng nhanh. WeChat (Weixin),
mt cng ty cung cp dch v tin nhn vn bn v tin nhn thoi trn in thoi di ng ti

3
Th h u tin ln ln cng cc phng tin truyn thng x hi
39
Trung Quc, c c khong 150 triu ngi s dng ch trong 12 thng cho n gn
cui nm 2015, trong tng trng so vi cng k nm trc mc t nht l 39%.[36]

3.2.2 Nhng sn phm c nng cao cht lngnh d liu

Nhng cng ngh mi ang thay i cch thc t chc nhn thc v qun l ti sn ca h,
v cc sn phm v dch v c ci tin vi nng lccng ngh k thut s gipgia tng gi
tr ca chng. V d, Tesla cho thy cch m cc bn cp nht phn mm v kh nng kt
ni d liu khng dy (over-the-air) c th c s dng ci thin mt sn phm (mt
chic xe hi) sau khi mua, ch khng phi cho n b mt gi theo thi gian.
Nhng vt liu mi khng ch gip ti sn tr nn lu bn hn v do dai hn,trong khi d
liu v phn tch cng ang chuyn i vai tr ca cng tc bo tr. Phn tch c cung cp
bi cc cm bin gn trn trn ti sn cho php gim st lin tc v bo tr ch ng, v khi
lm nh vy, s ti a ha vic s dng ti sn. Gi th vn khng cn l tm kim nhng
li c th m l v vic s dng cc im chun hiu sut (da trn d liu c cung cp
bi cc cm bin v gim st thng qua cc thut ton) m c th cnh bo khi mt phn ca
thit b di chuyn bn ngoi ca s hot ng bnh thng ca n. Trn my bay, v d, cc
trung tm kim sot khng lus bit trc cc phi cng trong vicpht hin ra li mt
ng c trn mt chic my bay c th. Do , h c th hng dn ngi phi cng v
nhng g cn lm v huy ng i ng bo tr trc im n ca chuyn bay.
Bn cnh cng tc bo tr, kh nng d bo hiu sut ca mt ti sn cho php nhng m
hnh kinh doanh mi c thnh lp. Hiu sut ti sn c th c o v theo di qua thi
gian nhng phn tch a ra nhng hiu bit v dung sai hot ng v cung cp nn tng
cho cc sn phm gia cng m khng phi l sn phm ct li hay sn phm chin lccho
ti cc nhu cu ca doanh nghip. SAP l mt v d v mt cng ty ang tn dng d liu t
cc sn phm vt l trong lnh vc nng nghip tng thi gian hot ng v s dng.
Kh nng d bo hiu sut ca mt ti sn cng m ranhng c hi mi cho cc dch v nh
gi. Ti sn vi hiu sut u vo cao nh thang my hoc thang cun c th c nh gi
bng hiu sut ti sn, v cc nh cung cp dch v c th c thanh ton trn c s hiu
sut thc t i ly mt ngng tng ng 99,5% thi gian hot ng trong mt chu k
nht nh. Ly cc on xe ti lm v d.Nhng ngi chuyn ch hng ha ng di
thng thchnhng nghrng h s tr cc nh sn xut lp xe sau khii 1,000 km ng
b thay v mua lp xe mi theo nh k. iu ny kh thi l do s kt hp ca cc cm bin
v phn tch cho php cc cng ty lp xe theo di hiu sut li xe, mc tiu th nhin liu v
hao mn lp xe cung cp y dch v u cui ti u cui.4

4
T thit b gi ti thit b nhn (end-to-end)
40
3.2.3 i mi trong hp tc
Mt th gii ca nhng tri nghim ca khch hng, cc dch v da trn c s d liu v
hiu sut ti sn thng qua phn tch i hi nhng hnh thc hp tc mi, c bit l vi tc
i mi v ph vnh thy. iu ny chnh xc cho c nhng cng ty lo lng trong
ngnhcng nh vi cc doanh nghip tr, nng ng. Nhng doanh nghip trc thng
thiu cc k nng c th v c nhy cm thp hn trong vic tm ra nhu cu ca khch
hng, trong khi cc doanh nghip trli t vn v thiu d liu phong ph t cc hot ng
sn xut hon thin.
Nh bo co i mi Hp tc: Chuyn i Kinh doanh, nh hng Tng trng ca din
n ny vch ra, khi cc doanh nghip chia s ngun lc thng qua i mi hp tc, gi
tr quan trng c th c to ra cho c hai bn cng nh cho nn kinh t m trong nhng
s hp tc nh vy din ra. Mt v d cho trng hp ny l s hp tc gn y gia ngi
khng l cng nghip Siemens, cng ty ny dnh khong 4 t USD mt nm cho nghin
cu v pht trin, v Ayasdi, mt cng ty my hc sng to (machine-learning)5 v l Nh
tin phong Cng ngh ca Din n c thnh lp ti i hc Stanford vo nm 2008. S
hp tc ny cho php Siemens tip cn mt i tc c th gip gii quyt nhng thch thc
phc tp ca vic gii nn thng tin t d liu rng ln, trong khi Ayasdi c th hp thc
ho cch tip cn phn tch d liu cu trc mng topo ca mnh vi cc d liu thc t,
ng thi m rng s hin din trn th trng.
Tuy nhin, nhng s hp tc nh vy thng v cng phc tp. Chng i hi phi u t
ng k t c hai bn pht trin cc chin lc cng ty, tm kim i tc ph hp, thit lp
cc knh thng tin lin lc, sp xp cc quy trnh, v phn ng linh hot khi nhng iu kin
thay i, c bn trong v bn ngoi cng ty. i khi, s hp tc nh vy ny sinh ra cc m
hnh kinh doanh hon ton mi nh n chia s xe trong thnh ph s gip cc doanh
nghip t nhiu ngnh cng nghip hp tc vi nhau cung cp mt tri nghim tch hp
cho khch hng. Tuy nhin chng li gn nh l cc lin kt yu nht trong chui quan h
i tc. Cc cng ty cn phi tin xa hn ra ngoi cc tho thun tip th v bn hng hiu
lm th no p dng cc phng php tip cn hp tc ton din. Cuc cch mng cng
nghip ln th t s thc y cc cng ty suy ngh v cch m th gii trc tuyn v ngoi
tuyn (online v offline) c th lm vic cng nhau trong thc t.

3.2.4 Cc m hnh iu hnh mi

Tt c nhng tc ng khc nhau i hi cc cng ty phi xem xt li m hnh hot ng ca
h. Theo , lp k hoch chin lc ang b thch thc bi nhu cu hot ng nhanh nhy
hn ca cc cng ty.

5
Machine Learning l kh nng hc hi, nhn thc ca h thng my mc
41
Nh cp phn trc, mt m hnh hot ng quan trng c kch hot bi cc hiu
ng mng s ha chnh l m hnh nn tng. Trong khi cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th
ba chng kin s xut hin ca cc nn tng k thut s thun tu, mt du hiu ca cuc
cch mng cng nghip ln th t l s xut hin ca cc nn tng ton cu kt ni cht ch
vi th gii vt cht. Chin lc nn tng ny va em li li nhun v va mang ti ph v.
Nghin cu ca Trng Qun l MIT Sloan cho thy 14 trong s 30 thng hiu hng u
v vn ho th trng trong nm 2013 l cc cng ty c nn tng nh hng (platform-
oriented).[37]
Chin lc nn tng, cng vi s cn thit phi t khch hng l trung tm hn v ci
tin cc sn phm vi d liu, ang chuyn hng nhiu ngnh cng nghip t ch ch tp
trung vo vic bn sn phm tin ti phn phi cc dch v. Ngy cng nhiu ngi tiu
dng khng cn mua v s hu cc i tng vt cht, m thay vo li tr tin cho vic
cung cp cc dch v c bn m h truy cp thng qua mt nn tng k thut s. V d, ta c
th truy cp k thut s ti hng t cun sch thng qua Kindle Store ca Amazon, c th
chi hu nh bt k bi ht no trn th gii thng qua phn mm Spotify, hoc tham gia
mt cng ty chia s xe hi, ni cung cp cc dch v di chuyn m khng cn phi s hu
nhng phng tin ny. S thay i v cng mnh m v c tnh n cc m hnh minh
bch v bn vng hn khi trao i gi tr trong nn kinh t. Nhng n cng to ra nhng
thch thc trong cch chng ta xc nh quyn s hu, lm th no chng ta sp xp v tham
gia vo cc ni dung khng gii hn, v chng ta s tng tc ra sao vi cc nn tng ngy
cng mnh m m ang cung cp cc dch v ny trn quy m ln.
Sng kin Chuyn i Cng nghip S trong chng trnh lm vic ca Din n Kinh t
Th gii nhn mnh mt s m hnh kinh doanh v hot ng khc c thit k tn dng
cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t. Mc tiu ly "khch hng lm trung tm" c
cp trn l mt trong nhng iu ny, vi nhng ngi xng nh cng ty Nespresso
ang tp trung n lc vo nhng quy trnh sn xut v trao quyn cho nhn vin a
khch hng ln hng u. M hnh kinh doanh tit kim s dng cc c hi to nn bi s
tng tc k thut s, vt cht v nhn lc m ra cc hnh thc ti u ha mi nh nhng
n lc ca Michelin trong cung cp dch v cht lng cao vi chi ph thp.
Cc m hnh kinh doanh da trn d liu to ra nhng ngun doanh thu mi t vic h c
th tip cn cc thng tin c gi tr v cc khch hng trong mt bi cnh rng ln hn v
ngy cng da vo phn tch v phn mm thng minh m kha nhng hiu bit. Cc
cng ty d liu "m v lu ng" t v tr ca mnh nh l mt phn ca mt h sinh thi
lng to ra gi tr, trong khi cc cng ty cng ngh "Skynet" li tp trung vo t ng ha,
tr nn ph bin hn trong cc ngnh cng nghip v ti cc khu vc nguy him. V c rt
nhiu v d v cc doanh nghip xoay chuyn theo hng nhng m hnh kinh doanh tp
trung vo ng dng cng ngh mi s dng nng lng v nguyn vt liu hiu qu hn,
do bo tn c cc ngun lc, gim chi ph, v c mt tc ng tch cc i vi mi
trng (xem Hp B: i mi mi trng v bo tn)

42
Nhng bin chuyn ny c ngha l cc doanh nghip s cn phi u t rt nhiu vo nhng
h thng o v d liu bo mt trnh s tn cng trc tip ca ti phm, cc nh hot
ng hoc nhng sai st ngu nhin trong c s h tng k thut s. c tnh tng chi ph
hng nm chng li cc cuc tn cng mng mc 500 t USD. Nhng kinh nghim ca cc
cng ty nh Sony Pictures, TalkTalk, Target v Barclays cho thy vic mt kim sot d liu
nhy cm ca cng ty v khch hng c nh hng tiu cc ti gi c phiu. iu ny gii
thch cho l do ti sao Ngn hng Bank of America Merrill Lynch c tnh rng th trng
an ninh mng s tng gi tr hn gp i t khong 75 t USD trong nm 2015 ln ti 170 t
USD vo nm 2020, hm mt t l tng trng hng nm hn 15% cho ngnh cng nghip
ny trong nm nm ti.[38]
S xut hin ca nhng m hnh hot ng mi cng c ngha l ti nng v vn ha phi
c xem xt li theo cc yu cu k nng mi v s cn thit thu ht v duy tr ngun
vn nhn lc. V d liu tr thnh trung tm ca vic ra quyt nh cng nh cc m hnh
hot ng khp cc ngnh, nn lc lng lao ng i hi phi c nhng k nng mi, trong
khi cc quy trnh cn phi c nng cp (v d, tn dng li th v tnh sn c ca thng
tin thi gian thc) v vn ha cn phi c pht trin.
Nh ti cp, cc cng ty cn phi thch ng vi khi nim "ch ngha ti nng". y l
mt trong nhng ng lc quan trng nht v cng mi m ca cnh tranh. Trong mt th
gii ni m ti nng l nhn t chi phi ca li th chin lc, bn cht ca c cu t chc s
phi xem xt li. S phn cp linh hot, cc cch thc mi o lnghiu qu cng vic v
khuyn khch khen thng, nhng chin lc mi thu ht v gi chn nhn ti, tt c s
tr thnh cha kha cho s thnh cng ca t chc. Kh nng nhanh nhycng s l gii
phpng sau ng lc lm vic v giao tip canhn vincng nhvic thit lp cc u tin
kinh doanh v qun l cc ti sn vt cht.
Ti c cm gic rng cc t chc thnh cng s ngy cng chuyn t cu trc phn cp ti
nhng m hnh theo mng li v hp tc. ng lc lm vic s ngy cng thc cht, c
thc y bi mong mun hp tc ca nhn vin v qun l cng vic vi s ch ng, c
lp v c ngha. iu ny cho thy rng cc doanh nghip s ngy cng c t chc thng
qua cc i ng phn b trn ton cu (distributed team), nhng nhn vin lm vic t xa v
cc tp th khng ngng thay i, trong lin tc trao i d liu v thng tin v nhng
cng vic hay nhim v cn thc hin.
Mt kch bn ti ni lm vic mi xut hin cng phn nh nhng thay i ny da trn s
gia tng nhanh chng ca cng ngh thit b c th eo c trn ngi (wearble
technology) khi kt hp vi internet ca vn vt, iu ang dn cho php cc cng ty ho
trn nhngtri nghim k thut s v vt l em li li ch cho ngi lao ng cng nh
ngi tiu dng. V d, cng nhn vn hnh cc thit b phc tp hoc trong nhng tnh
hung kh khn c th ng dng ccthit b mang trn ngi gip thit k v sa cha
cc b phn khc. Cc bn cp nht c ti xung dnh cho my mc thit b kt ni

43
m bo rng c nhng ngi trc tip thao tc cng nh cc thit b h s dng c cp
nht vi nhng pht trin mi nht. Trong th gii ca cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th
t, ni vic nng cp phn mm da trn cng ngh in ton m my v lm mi cc ti
sn d liu thng qua cc m my tr thnh tiu chun thc hnh, thquan trng hn l cn
m bo rng con ngi v k nng ca h c ththeo kp cng ngh.

Kt hp nhng th gii k thut s, vt cht v sinh hc

Cc cng ty c th kt hp a chiu - k thut s, vt l v sinh hc - thng thnh cng
trong vic ci bin ton b mt ngnh cng nghip v cc h thng lin quan ca h v sn
xut, phn phi v tiu dng.
S ph bin ca cng ty Uber ti nhiu thnh ph bt u vi vic ci thin tri nghim
khch hng ngi ta c th theo di v tr cachic xe thng qua mt thit b di ng, c
cung cp bn m t v c im chic xe v mt qu trnh thanh ton lin mch, t trnh
c s chm tr ti cc im n. Cc tri nghim ny c nng cao v i km vi sn
phm vt cht (vn chuyn mt ngi t im A n B) bng cch ti u ha vic s dng
cc ti sn (chic xe thuc s hu ca ngi li xe). Trong trng hp nh vy, nhng c
hi s thng khng c hiu ch l mt mc gi cao hn hay chi ph thp hn m cn l
mt s thay i c bn trong m hnh kinh doanh. iu ny c thc y bi mt phng
php c tn t u cui ti u cui (end-to-end), tc l t vic nhn c dch v ti cung
cp dch v.
Nhng m hnh kinh doanh da trn s kt hp nh vy minh ha cho mc ph v xy
ra khi nhng ti sn k thut s v s kt hp th v ca cc nn tng k thut s hin c
c s dng t chc li cc mi quan h vi cc ti sn vt cht (nh du mt s thay
i ng ch t vic s hu tip cn). Trong th trng ca h, khng phi cc cng ty
s hu cc ti sn, m l: mt ngi li xe s hu chic xe v cho php chic xesn sng s
dng; ngi ch nh lm cho cn phng ca mnh c sn. Trong c hai trng hp, li th
cnh tranh c xy dng da trn mt tri nghim tuyt i, kt hp vi gim cc chi ph
giao dch v chi ph gin on. Ngoi ra, cc cng ty ny gip gn cung v cu hng ha dch
v mt cch nhanh chng v thun tin, khc hn vi cc m hnh kinh doanh ca nhng
cng ty truyn thng.
Cch tip cn th trng ny dn dn xa b v tr lu i ca nhng cng ty ng nhim v
d b ranh gii gia cc ngnh cng nghip. Nhiu nh qun l cp cao k vng ngnh cng
nghip hi t tr thnh lc lng chnh tc ng n doanh nghip ca h trong ba n nm
nm ti.[39]Mt khi khch hng tin tng v t tin vi nn tng ny, cc nh cung cp k
thut s s d dng gii thiu v cung cp cc sn phm, dch v khc.
Nhng i th cnh tranh ang tin nhanh v pha trc gy ra s phn tch ca cc ngnh
cng nghip cng cc chui gi tr truyn thng, v cng loi b trung gian phn phi trong

44
cc mi quan h hin c gia doanh nghip v khch hng ca h. Nhng nhn t ph v
mi c th nhanh chng m rng quy m vi chi ph thp hn nhiu so vi cc cng ty
truyn thng, v nh cc hiu ng mng tng trng nhanh chng trong li nhun ti
chnh ca mnh. S pht trin ca Amazon t mt ni bn sch cho ti mt tp on bn l
vi doanh thu 100 t USD mt nm cho thy lng trung thnh ca khch hng, kt hp vi
nhng hiu bit v s thch v qu trnh thc hin ng tin cy c th gip bn cc sn phm
thng qua lin kt nhiu lnh vc cng nghip nh th no. N cng chng minh nhng li
ch ca quy m.
Trong hu ht cc ngnh cng nghip, cng ngh k thut s m ra nhng phng php
mi, t ph trong vic kt hp cc sn phm v dch v - v trong qu trnh ny, xo b
ranh gii truyn thng gia cc ngnh cng nghip. Trong lnh vc my mc t ng, gi
y mt chic xe hi chnh l mt my tnh c gn bnh xe, vi cc thit b in t chim
khong 40% chi ph ca mt chic xe. Quyt nh ca Apple v Google gia nhp th trng
t cho thy mt iu l mt cng ty cng ngh cao hin nay c th bin thnh mt cng ty xe
hi. Trong tng lai, khi gi tr chuyn v pha cc thit b in t, th cng ngh v bn
quyn phn mm c th c li v mt chin lc hn so vi sn xut mt chic xe thc t.
Ngnh ti chnh cng ang tri qua mt thi k thay i ph v tng t. Cc nn tng
ngang hng P2P (peer-to-peer) hin ang tho d cc ro cn gia nhp v gim chi ph.
Trong kinh doanh u t, thut ton "c vn r bt" mi (robo-advisory) v cc ng dng
tng ng ca chng s cung cp cc dch v t vn v cc cng c danh mc u t vi chi
phi ch bng mt phn nh ca chi ph giao dch c, mc 0,5% thay v chi ph truyn thng
l 2%, theo e da ton b phn khc ca ngnh cng nghip ti chnh hin hnh. Ngnh
ny cng ang nhn thc c rng u mi phn phi (blockchain) s sm cch mng ha
phng thc ngnh ti chnh hot ng v cc ng dng c th ca n trong lnh vc ti
chnh to ra c hi gim chi ph thanh ton v giao dch ln n 20 t USD v bin i
cch hot ng ca ngnh ti chnh. Cc cng ngh chia s c s d liu c th sp xp hp
l ho cc hot ng a dng nh lu tr cc ti khon ca khch hng, thanh ton xuyn
bin gii, v thanh ton b tr thng mi, cng nh cc sn phm v dch v khng tn ti
nh hp ng tng lai thng minh c th t thc hin m khng cn ngi giao dch (v d
nh mt sn phm tn dng phi sinh c th thanh ton t ng khi mt quc gia hay mt
cng ty khng tr n ng k hn).
Ngnh cng nghip chm sc sc khe cng ang phi i mt vi nhng thch thc ca
vic kt hp ng thi nhng tin b trong cng ngh vt l, sinh hc v k thut s, nh s
pht trin ca cc phng php chn on v phng php iu tr mi cng thc y s ha
h s bnh nhn v tn dng s di do ca thng tin c th c thu thp t thit b c th
eo c v cng ngh cy ghp cc thit b trn c th ngi.
Khng phi tt c cc ngnh cng nghip ang cng mt im ca s ph v, nhng tt c
u b y ln mt ng cong ca s bin i bi nhng ng lc ca cuc cch mng

45
cng nghip ln th t. C s khc bit da trn d liu v ngnh cng nghip v nhn khu
hc ca cc c s khch hng. Nhng trong mt th gii c trng bi s khng chc chn,
kh nng thch ng l rt quan trng - nu mt cng ty khng c kh nng di chuyn ln cc
ng cong, n c th b y ra khi n.
Cc cng ty tn ti hay pht trin s cn phi duy tr v lin tc mi da s sng to ca h.
Cc doanh nghip, cc ngnh cng nghip v cc tp on s phi i mt vi p lc ca
Darwin mt cch lin tc v nh vy, trit l "lun trong phin bn beta" (lun lun pht
trin) s tr nn ph bin hn. iu ny cho thy rng s lng cc doanh nhn v
intrapreneurs6 (nhng nh qun l cng ty dm ngh dm lm) ton cu s tng ln. Doanh
nghip va v nh s c li th v tc v s nhanh nhy cn thit i mt vi t ph
v s i mi.
Ngc li, cc t chc ln, s tn ti bng cch tn dng li th quy m ca h v u t vo
cc h sinh thi khi nghip cng nh u t vo cc doanh nghip va v nh bng cch
mua li v hp tc vi nhng lnh vc kinh doanh c quy m nh hn v sng to hn. iu
ny s gip h duy tr quyn t ch trong cc doanh nghip ca mnh trong khi cng cho
php cho cc hot ng hiu qu v nhanh nhy hn. Quyt nh gn y ca Google trong
ti cu trc thnh cng ty con ca cng ty Alphabet l mt v d sinh ng ca xu hng
ny, c thc y bi s cn thit phi ko di tnh sng to v duy tr tnh linh hot ca
mnh.
Cui cng, nh phn tip theo s miu t chi tit, cc khung quy nh v lut php s gip
nh hnh cch thc m cc nh nghin cu, doanh nghip v ngi dn pht trin, u t v
p dng c nhng cng ngh mi ni v cc m hnh hot ng cho php h to ra gi tr cho
ngi s dng. Trong khi cc cng ngh mi v cc doanh nghip sng to cung cp cc sn
phm v dch v mi c th ci thin cuc sng ca nhiu ngi, nhng cng ngh v cc h
thng tng t nh vy va h tr h cng c th va to ra tc ng m chng ta mun
trnh. Nhng tc ng t tht nghip trn lan v gia tng bt bnh ng, c chng tho
lun phn trn, cho n nguy c ca cc h thng v kh t ng v nhng ri ro an ninh
mng mi.
Trong khi cc quan im v iu g to nn s ho hp gia cc quy nh c th thay i,
nhng cuc tr chuyn ca ti vi cc nh lnh o chnh ph, doanh nghip v x hi dn
s cho thy rng h chia s cc mc tiu bao qut ging nhau: l to ra cc khung quy
nh v lut php nhanh nhy, c trch nhim m s cho php i mi pht trin mnh trong
khi gim thiu ri ro ca n m bo s n nh v thnh vng ca x hi.

Hp B: i mi v bo tn mi trng

6
Intrapreneur: Nhng ngi khi nghip ngay trong cng ty hin ti bng cch to dng mng kinh
doanh, sn phm hay dch v mi.
46
S hi t ca nhng th gii vt cht, k thut s v sinh hc - trung tm ca cuc cch
mng cng nghip ln th t - s m ra nhiu c hi quan trng cho th gii t c li
ch to ln trong cch s dng ti nguyn v s dng sao cho hiu qu. Nh d n
Mainstream, sng kin ca Din n Kinh t Th gii trong vic thc y qu trnh chuyn
i sang nn kinh t tun hon (circular economy), cho thy rng s ha hn khng ch l
cc c nhn, t chc, chnh ph cn phi c t tc ng n th gii t nhin m cn c nhiu
tim nng ln trong vic khi phc v ti to mi trng t nhin ca chng ta thng qua
vic s dng cc cng ngh v thit k h thng thng minh.
Trng tm ca li ha ny l c hi cc doanh nghip v ngi tiu dng chuyn t cc
m hnh tuyn tnh tip qun sp xp quyt nh v s dng ti nguyn m da trn s
lng ln cc ngun lc c th tip cn d dng, v hng ti mt m hnh cng nghip
mi, ni nhng lung vt liu, nng lng, lao ng v thng tin hin nay tng tc hiu qu
vi nhau v thc y bng cch thit k mt h thng kinh t phc hi, ti to v nng sut
hn.
C bn con ng gip a chng ta ti . u tin, nh vo vn vt kt ni internet (IOT)
v cc ti sn thng minh, ta c th theo di cc lung vt liu v nng lng lun t
c hiu sut mi mc rt cao dc theo chui gi tr. Cisco c tnh trong thp k ti, vn
vt kt ni internet IoT s mang li mt khon li ch kinh t tr gi 14,4 nghn t USD, trong
2,7 nghn t USD c th thu c t vic loi b cc cht thi v ci thin cc quy trnh
trong chui cung ng v hu cn. Cc gii php tch hp IoT c th lm gim lng pht thi
kh nh knh mc 9,1 t tn vo nm 2020, i din cho 16,5% tng s d trong nm
.[40]
Th hai, dn ch ha thng tin v minh bch t cc ti sn s ha gip ngi dn c nhng
sc mnh mi khin cc cng ty v cc quc gia c trch nhim phi gii trnh. Cc cng
ngh nh blockchain s gip cc thng tin ny ng tin cy hn, v d bng cch nm gi v
xc nhn d liu gim st v tinh v nn ph rng trong mt nh dng an ton buc
nhng ngi s hu t ai phi gii thch k lng hn.
Th ba, nhng dng thng tin mi v s gia tng tnh minh bch c th gip thay i hnh vi
ca cng dn trn mt quy m ln, khi m chng tr thnh ng dn d i nht vi cc quy
tc tiu chun kinh doanh v x hi hon ton mi ca mt h thng tun hon bn vng.
Trong khi , mt s th nghim i chng ngu nhin quy m ln c thc hin bi cc
chnh ph, nhng tp on v trng i hc cng ch ra rng s hi t hiu qu gia cc
lnh vc kinh t v tm l hc cung cp nhng hiu bit v cch chng ta cm nhn th
gii, c x v bin minh cho hnh vi ca mnh,. Mt v d l OPower, cng ty ny s

47
dng phng php so snh ngang hng li ko mi ngi trong vic tiu th t in nng
hn, t gip bo v mi trng v cng gp phn gim chi ph7.
Th t, nh cc phn trc phn tch chi tit, nhng m hnh kinh doanh v t chc mi
ha hn cc cch thc sng to to ra v chia s gi tr, do dn n nhng thay i
trong ton b h thng. iu ny c th em li li ch cho th gii t nhin cng nhiu nh
cho nn kinh t v x hi ca chng ta. Cc phng tin giao thng t li, nhng m hnh
kinh t chia s v m hnh cho thu u gip nng cao hn ng k t l s dng ti sn,
cng nh khin vic nm bt, ti s dng v ti ch nng cp (upcycle)8 vt liu khi thi
im thch hp n, tr nn d dng hn.
Cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t s cho php cc cng ty m rng chu k s dng cc
ti sn v cc ngun lc, nng cao hiu qu v to ra cc chui nguyn vt liu v nng
lng c th t hi phc v ti s dng li, gim lng kh thi v ti nguyn trong qu trnh
ny. Trong h thng cng nghip mi mang tnh cch mng ny, CO2 chuyn t mt cht
gy nhim nh knh tr thnh mt ti sn, v tnh kinh t ca cng ngh thu hi v lu tr
carbon t ch l ngun gia tng chi ph cng nh nhim cao tr thnh c li nhun nh
cc phng tin thu hi v ti s dng sn xut cacbon. Quan trng hn na, n s gip
cc cng ty, chnh ph v ngi dn tr nn thc hn v thc hin cc chin lc ch
ng ti to ngun vn t nhin, cho php vic ti s dng ngun vn t nhin hng dn
sn xut v tiu th bn vng ng thi cung cp khng gian cho a dng sinh hc nhm
phc hi cc khu vc b e da.

3.3 Quc gia v ton cu

Nhng thay i t ph m cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t mang li ang xc nh
li cch m cc c quan v t chc nh nc vn hnh. C th, chng buc cc chnh ph -
cp khu vc, quc gia v a phng phi thch nghi bng cch ti to chnh mnh v tm ra
cch thc hp tc mi vi ngi dn v khu vc t nhn. Chng cng nh hng n vic
quc gia v cc chnh ph lin quan n nhau nh th no.

Trong phn ny, ti tm hiu vai tr m cc chnh ph phi m ng lm ch cuc cch

mng cng nghip ln th t, trong khi nhn thc c nhng lc lng khng ngng lm
thay i nhn thc truyn thng ca cc chnh tr gia v vai tr ca h trong x hi. Vi vic
7
Opower l mt cng ty chuyn thu thp d liu s dng nng lng ca hng triu h gia nh trn
khp th gii v hp tc vi 93 cng ty cng ch 8 quc gia. tng ca Opower l cho cc
ch h bit hng xm ca h ang xi bao nhiu in nng khuyn khch h s dng tit kim
hn.
8
Ti ch nng cp (Upcycling) l hnh thc ti ch cc vt liu t sn phm c thnh sn phm mi
vi gi tr s dng, gi tr thm m cao, thm ch cao hn sn phm c.
48
trao quyn cho cng dn ngy cng gia tng v dn c tr nn phn mnh v phn cc hn,
iu ny c th xy ra trong cc h thng chnh tr khin vic iu hnh tr nn kh khn
hn v cc chnh ph s km hiu qu. N c bit quan trng khi xy ra ti mt thi im
m cc chnh ph tr thnh nhng i tc trng yu trong vic hnh thnh qu trnh chuyn
i ti cc khun kh khoa hc, cng ngh, kinh t v x hi mi.
3.3.1 Cc chnh ph

Khi nh gi tc ng ca cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t ln cc chnh ph, iu

cn nh n u tin chnh l vic s dng cc cng ngh k thut s iu hnh tt hn.
S dng cc cng ngh web vi cng ln v sng to hn c th gip cc c quan cng
quyn hin i ha c cu v chc nng ca mnh ci thin hiu sut tng th, t vic
khuyn khch s vn hnh ca chnh ph in t cho n thc y tnh minh bch, trch
nhim gii trnh v cam kt gia cc chnh ph v cng dn ca mnh. Cc chnh ph cng
phi thch ng vi thc t rng quyn lc cng c chuyn t nh nc ti cc ch th
ngoi nh nc, v t cc t chc chnh thc ti cc mng li khng cht ch. Cc cng
ngh mi, cc nhm v s tng tc x hi m chng thc y, cho php hu nh bt c ai
gy nh hng theo mt cch m c th l khng th tng tng c ch trong mt vi
nm trc y.

Cc chnh ph l mt trong nhng nhn t chu nh hng nhiu nht bi tnh nht thi v
sm n chng tn ca quyn lc. Nh Moiss Naim ni, "trong th k 21, quyn lc l
th c th d hn, nhng kh s dng hn, v cng d dng hn nh mt." [41] Chc
chn l iu hnh t nc hin nay kh khn hn so vi trong qu kh. Vi mt vi ngoi
l, cc nh hoch nh chnh sch ang gp kh khn hn thc hin thay i. H thng
b hn ch bi cc trung tm quyn lc i th bao gm bn ngoi phm vi quc gia, tnh,
a phng v thm ch l c nhn. Quyn lc vi m hin nay c kh nng hn ch nhng
quyn lc v m nh l cc chnh ph quc gia.

K nguyn k thut s lm suy yu nhiu ro cn tng c s dng bo v cc c

quan cng quyn, lm cho cc chnh ph tr nn t hiu qu hn do nhng ngi gy nh
hng hay cng chng gi y nm thng tin tt hn v ngy cng i hi cao hn trong
k vng ca h. Truyn di k v WikiLeaks - trong , mt thc th phi nh nc nh xu
i u vi mt nh nc s - minh ha cho s bt i xng ca m hnh quyn lc mi
v s xi mn lng tin thng i km vi n.

S phi mtc mt cun sch ch dnh ring cho ch ny khm ph tt c nhng tc

ng a chiu ca cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t i vi cc chnh ph, nhng
im quan trng y l: Cng ngh s ngy cng trao quyn cho ngi dn, cung cp mt
cch thc mi ni ln kin v phi hp cc n lc ca h v c th trnh s gim st
ca chnh ph. Ti ni "c th", bi v iu ngc li cng c th l s tht, v cc cng ngh
gim st mi cng m ng cho quyn lc ti thng cc c quan cng quyn.

49
Cc cu trc song song s c th gip ph bin nhng thc h, tuyn m ngi ng h v
phi hp nhng hnh ng chng li hoc th hn vi cc h thng chnh ph. Chnh ph
cc nc, trong cu trc hin ti, s b buc phi thay i v vai tr trung tm ca h trong
vic thc hin chnh sch ngy cng gim i do cc cng ngh mi khin cho mc cnh
tranh ngy cng tng v to ra s ti phn phi v phn chia quyn lc. Cng ngy, cc chnh
ph s c xem nh l trung tm dch v cng, c nh gi da trn kh nng ca mnh
trong vic cung cp cc dch v m rng theo cc cch hiu qu v c th nht.

Cui cng, chnh kh nng ca chnh ph trong vic thch ng s quyt nh s sng cn
ca h. Nu h theo ui mt th gii ca nhng thay i mang tnh ph v theo cp s
nhn, v nu h buc cc c cu ca h tun theo cc tiu chun minh bch v hiu qu c
th gip h duy tr li th cnh tranh, th h s tn ti. Tuy nhin, khi lm nh vy, h s
phi bin i hon ton thnh cc b my quyn lc khng v li v hiu qu hn na, tt c
trong mt mi trng ca cc cu trc quyn lc mi v cnh tranh.

Nh trong cc cuc cch mng cng nghip trc y, h thng chnh sch s gi mt vai
tr quyt nh trong vic thch ng v ph bin cc cng ngh mi. Tuy nhin, cc chnh ph
s buc phi thay i cch tip cn ca h khi ni n vic kin to, chnh sa v thc thi
cc chnh sch cng. Trong "th gii c", nhng ngi ra quyt nh c thi gian
nghin cu mt vn c th v sau a ra cc phn ng cn thit hay khun kh php l
thch hp. Ton b qu trnh c thit k dng tuyn tnh v c hc, theo mt cch tip
cn cng nhc t trn xung di. V nhiu l do, cch tip cn ny khng cn kh thi na.

Vi nhng thay i vi tc nhanh chng c kch hot bi cuc cch mng cng nghip
ln th t, cc nh lp php v qun l ang ng trc nhng thch thc vi mt mc
cha tng c. Cc c quan cng quyn, lp php v cc nh chc trch ngy nay thng qu
b dn dt bi cc s kin, khng c kh nng i ph vi tc thay i ca cng ngh v
tm quan trng ca nhng hm ca n. Cc chu k tin tc 24 gi gy p lc ln cc nh
lnh o phi bnh lun hoc c hnh ng ngay lp tc vi cc s kin, lm gim thi gian
sn sng cho cc phn ng thn trng, c nguyn tc v c kim tra k cng. C mt nguy
c thc s ca s mt kim sot nhng vn quan trng, c bit l trong mt h thng
ton cu vi gn 200 quc gia c lp v hng ngn cc nn vn ha v ngn ng khc nhau.

Trong iu kin nh vy, bng cch no cc nh hoch nh chnh sch v qun l c th h

tr pht trin cng ngh m khng bp nght s i mi trong khi vn gi c s quan tm
ca ngi s dng v cng chng ni chung? Qun l linh hot Agile l cu tr li (xem Hp
C: Cc Nguyn tc Qun l Linh hot Agile trong mt K nguyn Ph v).

Rt nhiu cng ngh tin tin m chng ta hin ang thy li khng l li gii thch hp
trong khung php l hin ti v thm ch c th ph v bn kh c x hi m cc chnh ph
thit lp vi cc cng dn ca h. Qun l linh hot Agile c ngha l cc nh qun l
phi tm cch lin tc thch ng vi mt mi trng mi v angbin chuyn nhanh

50
chng bng cch t thay i li chnh mnh hiu mt cch trn vn hn v nhng th m
h ang qun l. lm nh vy, chnh ph v cc c quan qun l cn phi phi hp cht
ch vi cc doanh nghip v x hi dn s hnh thnh nhng bin i cn thit trn ton
cu, cc vng min v trong lnh vc cng nghip.

Qun l linh hot Agile no khng bao hm cc quy tc bt nh, cng khng phi cc hot
ng dn dp, khng dt trong phn vic ca cc nh hoch nh chnh sch. Chng ta
khng nn nhm ln khi ngh rng chng ta ang b kt gia hai khun kh php l nh nhau
mt mt th li thi nhng n nh, v mt khc li cp nht nhng hay thay i. Trong
thi i ca cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t, iu cn thit khng nht thit phi l
a ra cc chnh sch nhiu hn hoc nhanh hn, m l mt h sinh thi cc quy nh v lut
php m c th to ra cc khun kh co gin hn. Phng thc tip cn ny c th c thc
y bng cch to ra nhiu khng gian hn phn nh vo cc quyt nh quan trng. iu
thch thc l lm cho s cn nhc k ny tr nn hiu qu hn so vi tnh hnh hin nay, tc
l truyn tm nhn xa to ra khng gian ti a cho s i mi xut hin.

Tm li, trong mt th gii ni m cc tnh nng cng, truyn thng x hi v cc thng tin
c nhn thit yu c di chuyn n cc nn tng k thut s, cc chnh ph - trong s hp
tc vi cc doanh nghip v x hi dn s - cn phi to ra cc quy tc, tin hnh kim tra v
cn bng duy tr cng l, kh nng cnh tranh, s cng bng, bao gm c quyn s hu,
s an ton v tin cy.

Hai cch tip cn da trn khi nim ang tn ti. Theo cch tip cn th nht, mi th
khng b cm mt cch r rng th c php. Theo cch tip cn th hai, tt c mi th m
khng c cho php mt cch r rng th s b cm. Chnh ph phi pha trn cc phng
php tip cn. H phi hc cch hp tc v thch ng, trong khi m bo rng ngi dn vn
l trung tm ca tt c cc quyt nh. y l thch thc cho cc chnh ph, iu m cha
bao gi tr nn cn thit hn trong cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t ny: h phi cho
php i mi c c hi pht trin mnh m, trong khi vn gim thiu ri ro.

t c iu ny, cc chnh ph s cn phi gn kt cc cng dn c hiu qu hn v

tin hnh th im chnh sch c tnh n vic hc tp v thch ng. Ton b cc tc v trn
c ngha rng chnh ph cng nh ngi dn phi suy ngh li v vai tr tng ng ca h v
cch h tng tc vi nhau, ng thi nng cao s mong i trong khi tha nhn s cn thit
phi kt hp nhiu quan im v chp nhn tht bi v cc sai lm khi trin khai.

Hp C: Cc nguyn tc qun l linh hot Agile trong mt K nguyn Ph v

Th trng vic lm

51
Cng ngh k thut s v c s h tng thng tin lin lc ton cu lm thay i ng k cc
quan nim truyn thng v cng vic v mc lng, to iu kin cho s xut hin ca cc
loi hnh cng vic mi hon ton linh hot v tm thi (nn kinh t theo nhu cu on-
demand economy). Trong khi nhng vic lm mi cho php mi ngi c c nhng gi
lm vic linh hot hn v c th m ra mt ln sng i mi cha tng c trong th trng
vic lm, chng cng nu ln mi bn tm ln v mc bo tr gim i trong bi cnh mt
nn kinh t theo nhu cu, ni m mi ngi lao ng c bn tr thnh mt nh thu,
nhng ngi khng cn nhn c li ch t cng vic m bo v di lu.

Tin v h thng thu

Nn kinh t theo nhu cu cng lm ny sinh nhng vn nghim trng lin quan n vic
thu thu, khi m ngi lao ng tm thi c th d dng v b thu ht hn nhiu lm vic
ti th trng ch en. Trong khi cc h thng thanh ton k thut s trung gian ang khin
cho cc giao dch thng thng v giao dch vi m tr nn minh bch hn, th h thng thanh
ton phn cp mi ang ni ln hin nay c th gy cn tr ln cho cc c quan cng quyn
v cng ty t nhn nhm truy tm ngun gc v ch n ca giao dch .

Trch nhim v s bo v

Cc cng ty c quyn do chnh ph cp php (v d nh cc ngnh cng nghip xe taxi, nh

cung cp dch v y t) t lu c sp nh sn vi l do l mt s loi ngnh ngh c
nguy c cao i hi mt mc gim st cao hn v ch nn c thc hin bi nhng
ngi c chuyn mn c cp php m bo mt mc an ton v bo v ngi tiu
dng thch hp. Nhiu cng ty c quyn do chnh ph cp php ang b lm xo trn bi
nhng tin b cng ngh m cho php mi ngi tng tc vi nhau trn nn tng chia s
ngang hng (peer-to-peer) v bi s xut hin ca cc trung gian mi chu trch nhim iu
phi cc ng ng (peer) v to iu kin cho s tng tc ca chng.

An ninh v s ring t

Mc cho c imvt ra ngoi phm vi quc gia ca mng Internet v ca cc nn kinh t

ton cu ha ang gia tng, bn quyn v cc quy nh bo v d liu vn cn phn mnh rt
nhiu. Quy nh xung quanh vic thu thp, x l v bn li cc d liu c nhn cng c
nh r chu u nhng vn cn yu hoc hon ton thiu nhiu quc gia khc. Vic tng
hp cc b d liu ln ang gip cho cc nh khai thc mng ln c thtruy tm ngun gc
nhiu thng tin c cung cp thc s hn (c th ngm hay cng khai) ca ngi s
dng. H s ngi dng thng qua k thut phn tch v suy lun d liu ln(big data)
ang m ng cho cc dch v mi, nhiu ty bin v c nhn ho, th c th em li li
ch cho ngi s dng v ngi tiu dng, tuy nhin cng cnh bomt mi bn tmln khi
xt n quyn ring t v t do ca c nhn. Vi nhng lo ngi gia tng xung quanh ti
phm mng v nh cp nhn dng, nhiu quc gia, s cn bng gia gim st v quyn t

52
do ang nhanh chng nghing v pha gia tng kim sot, nh nhng cng b ca Edward
Snowden, nh phn tch tnh bo M tit l cc ti liu lin quan n nhng hot ng an
ninh quc gia, cho thy iu ny.

S sn c v ha nhp

Khi nn kinh t ton cu ngy cng hng vo cc lnh vc k thut s, s sn c ca c s

h tng Internet ng tin cy tr thnh mt iu kin tin quyt quan trng cho mt nn kinh
t thnh vng. Chnh ph cc nc cn phi hiu c tim nng c mang li t nhng
tin b cng ngh ny. H khng nhng cn p dng cc cng ngh ti u ha hot ng
ni b ca mnh, h cng phi thc y v h tr trin khai trn din rng v s dng chng
di chuyn v pha trc, hng ti mt x hi thng tin kt ni ton cu. Cc vn c
quyn k thut s (hoc chia tch k thut s) cng tr nn cp bch hn, v s ngi dn
ngy cng gp kh khn khi tham gia nn kinh t k thut s v cc hnh thc mi ca s
tham gia ca cng dn m khng c mng li internet ph hp v/hoc h khng c quyn
truy cp t mt thit b c ni mng hoc khng c kin thc s dng thit b .

Quyn lc bt i xng

Trong x hi thng tin ngy nay, bt i xng thng tin c th dn n s mt cn bng

quyn lc ng k, v bt c ai c kin thc vn hnh cng ngh cng c quyn lm nh
vy. Mt thc th c quyn truy cp gc (root access) l gn nh ton nng. Tuy nhin, do
tnh phc tp ca vic nm y cc vn chuyn mn tim nng v c bn ca cng
ngh hin i, bt bnh ng gia tng c th ni ln gia cc c nhn am hiu cng ngh,
nhng ngi hiu v kim sot cc cng ngh ny, v cc c nhn t hiu bit, nhng ngi
s dng th ng ca mt cng ngh m h khng hiu .

Ngun: "Li ku gi cho Nguyn tc Qun tr Agile trong mt K nguyn Ph v", Hi ng

Chng trnh ngh s Ton cu v Phn mm v X hi, Din n Kinh t Th gii, thng 11 nm
2015.

3.3.2 Cc quc gia, khu vc v thnh ph

Bi v cng ngh k thut s l khng c bin gii, c rt nhiu cu hi cn phi suy ngh
khi xem xt cc tc ng a l ca cng ngh v nh hng ca a l i vi cng ngh.
iu g s xc nh cc vai tr m cc quc gia, khu vc v thnh ph trong cuc cch mng
cng nghip ln th t? Liu rng Ty u v Hoa K s dn u s chuyn i, nh nhng
nc ny lm trong cc cuc cch mng cng nghip trc ? Nhng quc gia no s c
th tin vt? S c s hp tc ln hn v hiu qu hn ci tin x hi, hay liu chng ta
s c th chng kin s phn mnh gia tng khng ch trong ni b cc quc gia m cn ko
53
di t quc gia ny sang quc gia khc? Trong mt th gii ni m hng ha v dch v c
th c sn xut gn nh khp mi ni, v ni m phn ln nhu cu cho cng vic c
mc lng thp v tay ngh thp b thay th bi s t ng ha, th liu rng nhng ni
c th c kh nng thc hin chuyn i s ch tp hp ti cc quc gia c th ch mnh
v cht lng cuc sng tt c kim chng?

Quy nh Kch hot i mi

Trong n lc tr li nhng cu hi ny, mt iu r rng v c tm quan trng rt ln l:

cc quc gia v vng lnh th thnh cng trong vic thit lp cc chun mc quc t u tin
ca tng lai trong cc danh mc v cc lnh vc chnh ca nn kinh t k thut s mi
(thng tin lin lc 5G, s dng my bay khng ngi li trong lnh vc thng mi,mng
li vn vt kt ni internet hay mng li thit b kt ni internet (internet of things), sc
khe da trn k thut s, sn xut tin tin) s gt hi c cc li ch kinh t v ti chnh
ng k. Ngc li, ti cc quc gia thc y cc chun mc v quy tc ca ring mnh
dnh li th cho cc nh sn xut trong nc ca h, ng thi cng ngn chn i th cnh
tranh nc ngoi v gim chi ph bn quyn m cc cng ty trong nc phi tr cho cng
ngh nc ngoi, s gp nguy c b c lp t cc tiu chun ton cu, iu ny y cc quc
gia chu ri ro tr thnh k chm tin ca thi i k thut s mi.[42]

Nh cp trc , cc vn rng ln ca php lut v thc thi cp quc gia hoc

khu vc s gi mt vai tr quyt nh trong vic hnh thnh cc h sinh thi m , cc
cng ty gy t ph hot ng. iu ny i khi dn n vic cc quc gia mu thun vi
nhau. Mt trng hp in hnh cho vic ny l quyt nh c ban hnh vo thng 10 nm
2015 ca Ta n Chu u (ECJ) lin quan n vic v hiu ha tha thun lu tr d liu an
ton ca thng tin c nhn ngi dng ti Hoa K v Lin minh chu u. iu ny dn n
gia tng cc chi ph tun th nhng yu cu, quy nh m cc cng ty phi chu khi thc
hin kinh doanh chu u v tr thnh mt vn gy tranh ci bn kia b i Ty
Dng.

V d ny cng c tm quan trng ngy cng tng ca cc h sinh thi i mi nh l ng

lc chnh ca s cnh tranh. Nhn v pha trc, s khc bit gia cc quc gia c chi ph
cao v chi ph thp, hoc gia cc th trng mi ni v th trng sang giai on trng
thnh, s gp cng t vn hn. Thay vo , cu hi then cht l liu rng mt nn kinh t
c th i mi?

Chng hn, ngy nay, cc cng ty Bc M vn l nhng cng ty sng to nht trn th gii
bng hu nh bt k bin php o lng no. H thu ht cc ti nng hng u, c c
nhiu bng sng ch nht, kim sot phn ln cc qu u t mo him ca th gii, v khi
cng khai nim yt, nhn c phn nh gi cng ty mc cao. iu ny c cng c
thm bi thc t l Bc M vn ang cn ng v tr hng u ca c bn vng quay cch
mng cng ngh hp li, l: i mi cng ngh nhin liu trong sn xut nng lng, sn

54
xut da trn cng ngh tin tin v k thut s, khoa hc v s sng, v cng ngh thng
tin.

V trong khi Bc M v EU, trong bao gm mt s nn kinh t sng to nht, dn ng,

th cc phn khc ca th gii ang nhanh chng bt kp. V d, nng lc i mi ca Trung
Quc c tnh tng ln n 49% so vi mc ca EU vo nm 2015 (tng t 35% nm
2006) khi nc ny chuyn sang m hnh kinh t tp trung vo i mi v dnh v.[43]
Thm ch xt v ngun gc tin trnh pht trin ca Trung Quc l t mt mc tng i
thp, nc ny ang tip tc bc vo phn khc gi tr gia tng cao hn trong nn sn xut
th gii v s dng li th kinh t nh quy m ng k ca n cnh tranh tt hn trn ton
cu.[44]

Nhn chung, iu ny cho thy rng cui cng s la chn chnh sch s xc nh xem rng
liu mt quc gia hoc khu vc c th c th tn dng y cc c hi to nn bi nhng
cuc cch mng cng ngh.

Cc khu vc v thnh ph l trung tm ca s i mi

Ti c bit quan tm n nh hng ca s t ng ha ti mt s quc gia v khu vc, c

bit l cc th trng mi ni v cc nc ang pht trin, ni m n c th bt ng xa b
dn cc li th so snh nhng nc ny c nhn trong sn xut hng ha v dch v lao
ng. Mt kch bn nh vy c th tn ph cc nn kinh t ca mt s nc v khu vc m
hin nay ang pht trin mnh.

R rng l khng phi cc quc gia hay khu vc c th thnh cng nu cc thnh ph ca h
(cc h sinh thi i mi) khng c tip tc nui dng. Nhng thnh ph l cc u
tu ca tng trng kinh t, s thnh vng v tin b x hi xuyn sut lch s, v s vn l
rt cn thit cho s cnh tranh trong tng lai ca cc quc gia v khu vc. Ngy nay, hn
mt na dn s th gii sng cc khu vc th, t cc thnh ph c trung n cc thnh
ph ln, v s lng cc c dn thnh th trn ton th gii tip tc tng. Nhiu yu t nh
hng n kh nng cnh tranh ca cc quc gia v khu vc - t s i mi v gio dc ti
c s h tng v hnh chnh cng u thuc phm vi qun l ca thnh ph.

Tc v mc bao ph ca nhng thnh ph hp thu v trin khai cng ngh, c h tr

bi cc khun kh chnh sch linh hot, s quyt nh kh nng cnh tranh trong vic thu ht
nhn ti. S hu mt ng truyn internet bng thng rng siu nhanh, s dng cc cng
ngh k thut s trong vn chuyn, tiu th nng lng, ti ch cht thi v nhng iu
tng t nh trn s khin cho mt thnh ph tr nn hiu qu v ng sng hn, v do
hp dn hn nhng ni khc.

V vy, vic quan trng l cc thnh ph v quc gia trn th gii tp trung vo vic m bo
s tip cn v s dng cc cng ngh thng tin v lin lc m cuc cch mng cng nghip

55
ln th t phn nhiu phi ph thuc vo. ng tic, nh Bo co Cng ngh thng tin ton
cu ca Din n Kinh t th gii nm 2015 ch ra, c s h tng cng ngh thng tin
khng ph bin v cng khng khuch tn nhanh nh nhiu ngi ang tin. "Mt na dn s
th gii khng s hu in thoi di ng v 450 triu ngi vn sng ngoi vng ph sng
tn hiu in thoi di ng. Khong 90% dn s ca cc nc c thu nhp thp v hn 60%
dn s ton cu cha s dng mng internet. Cui cng, hu ht cc chic in thoi di ng
u l t th h c."[45]

Do , cc chnh ph phi tp trung vo vic thu hp khong cch cng ngh s trong nc
tt c cc giai on pht trin m bo rng cc thnh ph v quc gia c c s h tng c
bn cn thit to lp cc c hi kinh t v chia s s thnh vng, iu c th thc hin
thng qua cc m hnh hp tc, nng sut v xy dng doanh nghip mi.

Bo co ca Din n v Pht trin theo nh hng D liu (Data-Driven) nhn mnh rng
khng phi l ch cn truy cp vo c s h tng k thut s l gii quyt c vic nm bt
nhng c hi ny. iu quan trng khng km l gii quyt "thm ht d liu" nhiu nc,
c bit l cc khu vc min Nam, do nhng hn ch v cch m d liu c th c to
ra, thu thp, truyn ti v s dng. Chm dt li bn "khong trng" gp phn cho s
thm ht ny - s tn ti, truy cp, qun tr v kh nng s dng ca n s em n cho cc
quc gia, vng v thnh ph nhiu kh nng b sung c th tng cng s pht trin ca h,
chng hn nh theo di s bng n ca cc bnh truyn nhim, ng ph tt hn vi cc thm
ha t nhin, tng cng tip cn vi cc dch v cng cng v ti chnh cho ngi ngho,
v nm c m hnh di c ca nhng nhm dn s d b tn thng.[46]

Cc quc gia, khu vc v thnh ph c th thc hin nhiu hn l ch n gin thay i mi

trng php l. H c th ch ng u t tr thnh b phng cho chuyn i k thut s,
nhm thu ht v khuyn khch cc doanh nghip v nh u t trong khi nghip sng to
ng thi m bo rng cc doanh nghip thit lp t nh hng bn thn hng ti cc c
hi ca cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t. Khi cc cng ty mi, nng ng cng cc
doanh nghip thnh lp t trc kt ni vi nhau v kt ni ti ngi dn v cc trng
i hc, th cc thnh ph s tr thnh nhng ni th im ng thi l nhng trung tm c
tc ng mnh bin nhng tng mi i vo gi tr thc s cho nn kinh t a phng
v ton cu.

Theo Nesta, t chc hng u v i mi Vng quc Anh, nm thnh ph ng u th

gii vi mi trng chnh sch hiu qu nht thc y s i mi l: New York, London,
Helsinki, Barcelona v Amsterdam.[47] Nghin cu ca Nesta cho thy rng cc thnh ph
ny c bit thnh cng trong vic tm kim nhng cch thc sng to thay i c hiu
qu ra ngoi c khu vc chnh sch chnh thc, t m mc nh, v hnh ng ging nh cc
doanh nghip (hn l cc c quan cng quyn). Ton b ba tiu ch trn tr thnh nhng v
d in hnh m chng ta ang thy trn ton cu, v l tng ng nhau i vi cc

56
thnh ph ti cc th trng mi ni v cc nc ang pht trin. Medellin, Colombia,
c vinh danh l Thnh ph ca Nm vo nm 2013, nh cch tip cn sng to ca mnh
trong vic gia tng tnh lu ng ca ngi dn sng cc khu vc ngho v tnh bn vng
mi trng, nh bi cc thnh ph khc nh New York v Tel Aviv. [48]

Trong thng 10 nm 2015, Hi ng Chng trnh ngh s ton cu ca Din n Kinh t

Th gii v Tng lai ca cc Thnh ph pht hnh mt bo co nu ln nhng trng hp
thnh ph trn th gii trong vic theo ui cc gii php sng to cho mt lot cc vn
(xem Hp D: i mi th).[49] Bo co ny ch ra rng cuc cch mng cng nghip ln
th t l duy nht, c dn dt bi mt mng li ton cu t cc thnh ph thng minh,
cc nhm nc v cc cm khu vc, nhng ni hiu v tn dng cc c hi ca cuc cch
mng ny - hnh ng t trn xung v t di ln t mt quan im ton din v tch hp
.

Hp D: i mi th

Khng gian lp trnh li k thut s: Cc ta nh s c th chuyn mc ch ngay tc th

phc v nh mt nh ht, phng tp th dc, trung tm x hi, hp m hoc bt c iu
g, do gim thiu ton b cc du vt th. iu ny s cho php cc thnh ph c c
nhiu hn t nhng th t hn.

Mng li nc (Waternet): ng ng nc trn khng gian o s cho php s dng

cc cm bin trong h thng nc kim sot dng chy v do qun l ton b chu
trnh, cung cp lng nc bn vng cho cc nhu cu ca con ngi v h sinh thi.

Trng cy xanh thng qua cc mng x hi: Cc nghin cu cho thy rng vic tng din
tch cy xanh ca thnh ph ln 10% c th b p cho s gia tng nhit gy ra bi bin
i kh hu: thm thc vt gip ngn chn bc x sng ngn trong khi cng gip bay hi
nc, lm mt khng kh xung quanh v to ra vi kh hu thoi mi hn. Tn cy v h thng
r cy cng c th lm gim lu lng nc ma v cn bng lu chuyn dinh dng.

Di chuyn th h tip theo: Vi nhng tin b trong cc b vi x l cm bin, quang hc v

h thng nhng, ci thin an ton cho ngi i b v giao thng khng c ng c s dn
n vic s dng giao thng cng cng nhiu hn, gim n tc v nhim, c sc khe tt
hn v i li c nhanh hn, d d on hn v gim chi ph.

H thng ng pht (co-generation), va si m v va lm mt: h thng c kh ng

pht thu v s dng lng nhit d tha, ci thin ng k hiu sut nng lng. H thng
Tam pht (Trigeneration) s dng nhit lm m cc ta nh hoc lm mt thng qua

57
cng ngh lm mt hp th - Chng hn, lm mt cc khu vn phng phc hp s dng s
lng ln cc my tnh.

Di chuyn theo nhu cu: S ha ang gip cc phng tin giao thng tr nn hiu qu hn
bng cch cho php cc thng tin v thi gian thc v s gim st cha tng c ca c s h
tng di ng th. iu ny m ra tim nng mi cho vic tn dng cc phng tin khng
s dng thng qua cc thut ton ti u ha ng nng.

Ct n ng thng minh: Th h tip theo ca n ng LED c th hot ng nh

mt nn tng cho mt lot cc cng ngh cm bin thu thp d liu v thi tit, nhim,
hot ng a chn, s chuyn ng ca giao thng v ngi dn, ting n v nhim khng
kh. Bng cch lin kt cc ct n ng thng minh trong mt mng li, ta c th nhn
bit c nhng g ang xy ra trn mt thnh ph trong thi gian thc v cung cp cc gii
php sng to trong cc lnh vc nh an ton cng cng hoc xc nh ni c ch u xe
min ph.

Ngun: "Top 10 i mi th hng u", Hi ng Chng trnh ngh s ton cu v Tng lai ca
Thnh ph, Din n Kinh t Th gii, thng 10 nm 2015.

3.3.3 An ninh Quc t

Cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t s tc ng su sc ln bn cht ca cc mi quan h

nh nc v an ninh quc t. Ti dnh s ch c bit n vn trn trong phn ny v ti
cm thy rng trong tt c nhng bin i quan trng lin quan n cc cuc cch mng cng
nghip ln th t, an ninh l mt ch khng th tho lun mt cch thch ng trong phm
vi cng cng v trong cc lnh vc bn ngoi chnh ph v ngnh cng nghip quc phng.

Mi nguy him ng bo ng hin nay l s bt bnh ng gia tng trong mt th gii siu
kt ni c th dn n tng s phn mnh, phn bit v bt n x hi, t to iu kin cho
ch ngha cc oan bo lc. Cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t s thay i tnh cht ca
cc mi e da an ninh trong khi cng nh hng n s thay i quyn lc, iu ang xy
ra c v mt a l, v t nh nc n cc ch th ngoi nh nc. i mt vi s tng ln
v s lng ca cc nhn t ngoi nh nc c v trang tr thnh mt cnh quan a
chnh tr ngy cng phc tp, trin vng thit lp mt nn tng chung cho s hp tc xung
quanh cc thch thc an ninh quc t quan trng s tr thnh mt iu tin quyt, nu thch
thc i hi nhiu hn.

Kh nng kt ni, s phn mnh v bt n x hi

Chng ta sng trong mt th gii siu kt ni, ni thng tin, tng v mi ngi ang di
chuyn nhanh hn bao gi ht. Chng ta cng sng trong mt th gii ca s bt bnh ng

58
gia tng, mt hin tng m s cn tr nn trm trng hn bi nhng thay i ln trong th
trng lao ng m ti m t phn trc. Loi tr x hi ni rng, thch thc ca vic
tm kim cc ngun ng tin cy trong th gii hin i, v tht vng trc cc nhm c li
v cu trc c thnh lp, nhn thc hay thc t, thc y cc phong tro cc oan v
kch hot vic tuyn m qun lc cho mt cuc u tranh bt bo ng chng li cc h
thng hin c (xem Hp E: Cc phong tro ca Nhn dn trong cuc Cch mng Cng
nghip Ln th t).

Siu kt ni khng t nhin n vi nhau do s chu ng hoc kh nng thch ng ln hn,

nh thy trong cc phn ng vi cc cuc di dn bi thm t mc cao lch s trong nm
2015. Tuy nhin, cc siu kt ni tng t cng c tim nng t im chung l da trn
vic chp nhn v thu hiu hn v s khc bit, m c th gip cng ng n vi nhau hn
l y h ra xa nhau. Tuy nhin, nu chng ta khng tip tc di chuyn theo hng ny,
phng n thay th chnh l vic dn n gia tng s phn mnh.

Box E: Di c v Cuc Cch mng Cng nghip Ln th t

S di chuyn ca con ngi trn ton th gii l c mt hin tng quan trng v mt dng
vn ng ln ca ti sn. Lm th no cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t s c nh
hng n di chuyn con ngi? C th l qu sm ni ra, nhng ngoi suy t cc xu
hng hin ti cho thy rng qu trnh di dn s ng mt vai tr ngy cng quan trng hn
n x hi v cc nn kinh t trong tng lai hn ngy hm nay:

- Nhn thy kht vng cuc sng: Tng t nh s gia tng nhn thc v cc kh nng c
th xy ra v c hi cc nc khc nh vo s kt ni m rng, i khi di c ngy cng
c xem nh l mt s la chn cuc sng cn c thc hin, c bit l nhng ngi tr
tui. Trong khi ng c c nhn li khc nhau rt nhiu, nh tm kim cng vic, mong
mun hc tp, nhu cu bo v, mong mun on t gia nh, v tng t nh vy, ngi ta
cng sn sng hn trong vic tm kim cc gii php vt ra ngoi bin gii.

- nh ngha li bn sc c nhn: Cc c nhn vn thng gn b cht ch cuc sng ca

h ti mt a im, mt nhm dn tc, mt nn vn ha c th hoc thm ch l mt ngn
ng. S xut hin ca tng tc trc tuyn v gia tng vic tip xc vi cc tng t cc
nn vn ha khc c ngha l bn sc hin nay c th thay th c so vi trc y. Con
ngi by gi thoi mi hn nhiu vi vic em theo v qun l nhiu nhn dng.

- nh ngha li bn sc gia nh: Nh s kt hp ca m hnh di c lch s v kt ni

mng chi ph thp, cu trc gia nh ang c nh ngha li. Khng cn b rng buc bi
khng gian, tri di trn ton th gii, ngi ta c th tr chuyn vi gia nh lin tc, bng

59
cc phng tin k thut s. Cng ngy, cc n v gia nh truyn thng ang c thay th
bi cc mng gia nh xuyn quc gia.

- Lp li bn th trng lao ng: Di c lao ng c kh nng chuyn i th trng lao

ng trong nc tt hn hoc ti t hn. Mt mt, ngi lao ng ti cc nc ang pht
trin to thnh ngun nhn lc -- nhiu cp k nng c th tho mn nhu cu cha c
p ng ca th trng lao ng cc nc pht trin. S dch chuyn ti nng l mt tin
trnh dn dt s sng to, i mi cng nghip v hiu sut cng vic. Mt khc, s xm
nhp ca lao ng nhp c vo cc th trng trong nc, nu khng c qun l mt cch
hiu qu, c th gy ra bp mo h thng tin lng v tnh trng bt n x hi cc nc
ch nh, trong khi ly i ngun vn con ngi c gi tr ca cc nc qu nh.

Cuc cch mng k thut s to ra nhng c hi mi cho lin lc v "di chuyn" gip b
sung v tng cng vn ng th cht. C kh nng l cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th
t s c mt hiu ng tng t, nh s hp nht ca th gii vt cht, k thut s v sinh hc
s vt xa hn gii hn thi gian/khng gian theo mt cch no khuyn khch di
chuyn con ngi. Do , mt trong nhng thch thc ca cuc cch mng cng nghip ln
th t s l qun l tnh di chuyn con ngi m bo rng li ch ca n c thc hin
hon ton bng cch t ngang hng quyn v ngha v ca ch quyn quc gia vi quyn v
nguyn vng ca c nhn, hi ho an ninh quc gia v c nhn, v tm cch duy tr s ha
hp x hi gia bi cnh s a dng ngy cng gia tng.

Ngun: Hi ng Chng trnh ngh s ton cu v Di c, Din n Kinh t Th gii

S thay i bn cht ca xung t

Cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t s nh hng n quy m ca xung t cng nh

c tnh ca n. Nhng khc bit gia chin tranh v ha bnh v nhng ai l ngi tham
chim v khng tham chin ang tr nn khng r nt. Tng t nh vy, cc chin trng
ngy cng gia tng trn c mc a phng v ton cu. Cc t chc nh Da'esh, hoc
ISIS, hot ng ch yu trong cc khu vc c vch r ti Trung ng, nhng h cng
ang tuyn m chin binh n t hn 100 quc gia, ch yu thng qua phng tin truyn
thng x hi, trong khi cc cuc tn cng khng b c lin quan n h c th xy ra bt c
ni no trn hnh tinh ny. Cc cuc xung t hin i ang ngy cng c tnh lai ghp
(hybrid), tc l kt hp gia k thut chin u truyn thng vi nhng yu t m trc y
ch yu lin quan ti cc tc nhn phi nh nc c v trang. Tuy nhin, vi vic cc cng
ngh hp nht theo nhng cch ngy cng kh lng v vi vic nh nc v cc t chc phi
nh nc c trang b v trang hc hi ln nhau, tnh cht nghim trng tim tng ca s thay
i vn cha c nh gi ng mt cch rng ri.
60
Khi qu trnh ny din ra v cc cng ngh mi, gy cht ngi tr nn d dng kim c
v s dng, cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t r rng m ra nhiu cch thc khc
nhau cho cc c nhn lm hi ngi khc trn quy m ln. Nhn thc c iu ny a
n cm gic d b tn cng hn.

Tuy nhin cng khng phi tt c u m m. Tip cn cng ngh cng mang theo n
nhng trin vng v chnh xc hn trong chin tranh, cng ngh trang phc bo h hin
i nht trong chin u, kh nng in cc phn thay th cn thit hoc cc thnh phn khc
ngay trn chin trng, v tng t nh vy.

Chin tranh mng

Chin tranh mng nu ln mt trong nhng mi e da nghim trng nht ca thi i chng
ta. Khng gian mng ang ngy cng tr thnh mt ni gn kt tng t nh t lin, bin
c, v khng kh trong qu kh. Ti c th yn tm mc nhin cho rng, trong khi bt k
cuc xung t xy ra trong tng lai gia cc quc gia pht trin va phi c th hoc khng
th din ra trong th gii vt cht, th rt c kh nng n s bao gm mt v tn cng khng
gian o. n gin l bi v khng c i th hin i no c th chng li ni cm d trong
vic ph ri, gy nhm ln hoc ph hy cc cm bin, cc phng tin thng tin lin lc v
nng lc ra quyt nh ca k th.

iu ny khng ch lm h thp ngng ca ca chin tranh m cn s lm lu m s khc

bit gia chin tranh v ha bnh, bi v bt k mng li hoc thit b kt ni mng no
cng c th b xm nhp v tn cng, t h thng qun s ti c s h tng dn s nh cc
ngun nng lng, mng li in, y t hoc kim sot giao thng, hay cung cp nc. Kt
qu l khi nim v k th cng chu nh hng nh vy. Tri ngc vi qu kh, gi y
bn c th khng h chc chn v nhng ngi ang tn cng bn - v thm ch cho d bn
b tn cng cht no khng. Cc chin lc quc phng, qun s v an ninh quc gia tp
trung vo mt s lng hn ch cc quc gia th ch truyn thng, by gi h phi xem xt
mt h thng gn nh v hn v khng r rng nhng k xm nhp (hacker), khng b, cc
nh hot ng, ti phm, v nhng k th c th khc. Chin tranh mng c th biu hin
di nhiu hnh thc khc nhau - t hnh vi phm ti v gin ip ti tn cng hy dit nh
Stuxnet9 - m phn ln vn b nh gi thp v b hiu lm bi v chng qu mi v kh
khn ngn chn li.

K t nm 2008, c nhiu trng hp ghi nhn c v cc cuc tn cng c ch o ti

cc quc gia v cc cng ty c th, nhng cc cuc tho lun v k nguyn mi ca cc cuc
chin tranh ny vn cn trong giai on trng nc v khong cch cng ni rng tng ngy
gia nhng ngi am hiu cc vn k thut cao ca chin tranh mng v nhng ngi
9
Stuxnet l tn mt su my tnh, c pht hin tn cng mt c s ht nhn ca Iran ti
Natanz vo thng 6-2010. Stuxnet nhim vo hn 60.000 my tnh trn th gii, nhng phn ln
l Iran. Stuxnet c ghi nhn ph hy hn 1.000 my li tm cc c s ht nhn ca Iran.
61
ang pht trin chnh sch mng. Liu rng mt tp hp cc tiu ch c chia s s m
ng cho chin tranh mng vn cn l mt cu hi m, tng t nh nhng tiu ch c
pht trin cho v kh ht nhn, sinh hc v ha hc. Chng ta thiu ngay c mt nguyn tc
phn loi ng thun v mc no th c coi l mt cuc tn cng v cn c phn
ng thch hp ra sao, vi nhng iu g v do ai. Mt phn ca phng trnh qun l kch
bn ny l xc nh nhng d liu no c th ra ngoi bin gii. y l mt du hiu cho
thy chng ng i vo vic kim sot hiu qu cc giao dch da trn khng gian o xuyn
bin gii m khng hn ch cc kt qu tch cc t mt th gii kt ni vi nhau nhiu hn,
cn xa ti mc no.

Chin tranh t ng ho

Chin tranh t ng ho, bao gm c vic trin khai cc robot qun s v cc v kh t ng

da trn tr thng minh nhn to m ra vin cnh "chin tranh robot", th s ng mt vai tr
gy bin chuyn ti cc cuc xung t trong tng lai.

y bin v khng gian cng c kh nng tr nn qun s ha, v ngy cng nhiu bn cc
chnh ph v t nhn c nng lc phng cc v tinh v s dng cc phng tin khng
ngi li di nc c kh nng ph v cc loi cp quang v bn v tinh. Cc bng
nhm ti phm s dng my bay trc thng khng ngi li (drone) bn sn trn th
trng do thm v tn cng cc i th. Cc loi v kh t ng, c kh nng xc nh
mc tiu v quyt nh khai ha m khng cn s can thip ca con ngi, s ngy cng tr
nn d p dng v thch thc lut php ca chin tranh.

Hp F: Cc Cng ngh Mi ni Thay i An ninh Quc t

My bay khng ngi li (Drone): Chng ch yu l my bay robot. Hoa K hin ang
dn u nhng cng ngh ny ang lan truyn rng ri v gi c tr nn phi chng hn.

V kh t ng: Kt hp cng ngh khng ngi li vi tr thng minh nhn to, chng c
kh nng la chn v giao chin vi cc mc tiu m khng cn s can thip ca con ngi,
theo cc tiu ch c xc nh trc.

Qun s ha khng gian: Trong khi hn mt na trong s tt c cc v tinh mc ch

thng mi, cc thit b thng tin lin lc c qu o ang ngy cng chim v tr quan trng
cho mc ch qun s. Th h tu ln siu thanh mi cng ang sn sng gia nhp lnh
vc ny, rt c kh nng trong tng lai, khng gian ng vai tr quan trng trong cc cuc
xung t v gia tng mi lo ngi rng cc c ch hin hnh iu chnh cc hot ng
khng gian s khng cn thch hp.

62
Thit b eo thng minh (Wearable device): Nhng thit b ny c th ti u ha sc khe
v nng sut trong cc iu kin kh khn ngt ngho hoc ch to cc khung xng gip
nng cao kh nng thc thi nhim v ca binh lnh, cho php mt ngi c th mang vc vt
nng khong 90 kg m khng gp kh khn.

Sn xut p dn Cng ngh in 3D (Additive Manufacturing): Vic sn xut s cch

mng ha chui cung ng bng cch cho php thay th ph tng c sn xut trong lnh
vc ny t cc thit k c truyn ti thng qua phng tin k thut s v cc vt liu c
sn ti a phng. N cng c th cho php pht trin cc loi u n ht nhn mi, vi s
kim sot cao hn v kch thc ht v ting n.

Nng lng ti to: N cho php nng lng c to ra ti a phng, cch mng ha
chui cung ng v nng cao nng lc in n cc thnh phn theo nhu cu thm ch ti
nhng a im ho lnh.

Cng ngh Nano: Nano ang dn dn dn u tr thnh siu vt liu, cc vt liu thng
minh m c cc thnh phn khng c trong t nhin. N s gip cho v kh tt hn, nh hn,
linh ng hn, thng minh hn v chnh xc hn, v cui cng s dn n kt qu l nhng
h thng c th t sao chp v lp rp.

V kh sinh hc: Lch s ca chin tranh sinh hc cng ko di gn nh lch s ca cc

cuc chin tranh thng thng, nhng nhng tin b nhanh chng trong cng ngh sinh hc,
di truyn v gen bo hiu nhng v kh gy cht ngi tm cao mi. Nhng chng virus
c thit k pht tn trong khng kh, siu b, bnh truyn nhim bin i gen v tng t
nh vy: tt c nhng th trn hnh thnh nn c s ca vin cnh ngy tn th trong
tng lai.

V kh sinh ha: Cng nh cc loi v kh sinh hc, i mi cng ngh ang gip cho vic
lp rp cc loi v kh d dng gn nh vic m ai cng lm c. Cc thit b bay khng
ngi li c th c s dng vn chuyn chng.

Truyn thng x hi: Trong khi cc knh truyn hnh k thut s cung cp c hi truyn
thng tin v t chc cc hot ng vi cc mc ch tt, chng cng c th c s dng
truyn b ni dung c hi v thng tin tuyn truyn, chng hn nh t chc ISIS, cc nhm
cc oan dng cc phng tin ny tuyn m v huy ng vo hng ng ca h. Thanh
nin l nhng ngi d b lm hi, c bit l khi h thiu mt mng li h tr x hi n
nh.

63
Nhiu cng ngh c m t trong Hp F hin tn ti hoc ang trong qu trnh trin
khai. V d nh, robot SGR-A1 ca Samsung, c trang b hai sng my v mt khu sng
vi n cao su, by gi c s dng trong khu phi qun s Hn Quc. Cho n thi
im ny, chng c iu khin bi con ngi nhng mt khi c lp trnh, chng c th
xc nh v tham gia vo cc mc tiu ca con ngi mt cch c lp.

Nm ngoi, B Quc phng Anh v tp on sn xut v kh hng u th gii BAE

Systems cng b th nghim thnh cng my bay tng hnh Taranis, cn c gi l
Raptor, c th ct cnh, bay n mt a im nht nh v tm thy mt mc tiu xc nh
vi t s can thip t ngi iu hnh tr khi cn thit. C rt nhiu v d tng t nh
vy.[50] Chng s nhn ln gp nhiu ln, v trong qu trnh , s t ra cc cu hi mang
tnh quyt nh ti ni giao im ca a chnh tr, chin lc v chin thut qun s, quy
nh v o c.

Nhng ranh gii mi trong an ninh ton cu

Nh nhn mnh nhiu ln trong cun sch ny, chng ta ch c mt cm gic nht nh v
tim nng ti thng ca cc cng ngh mi v nhng g pha trc. Trng hp ny
khng c g ngc nhin trong lnh vc an ninh quc t v trong nc. i vi mi s i mi
m chng ta c th ngh v, s c mt s vn dng tch cc v tiu cc c th xy ra. Trong
khi cc cng ngh thn kinh (neurotechnologies) nh vic cy cc t bo thn kinh c
s dng gii quyt cc vn y khoa, th tng lai chng cn c th c p dng cho
cc mc ch qun s. H thng my tnh gn ln m no c th cho php mt bnh nhn b
lit iu khin mt cnh tay robot hoc chn robot. Cng ngh tng t c th c s dng
iu khin phi cng hoc binh lnh m phng. Thit b gn no c thit k iu tr
tnh trng bnh Alzheimer c th c cy vo binh lnh xa k c hoc to ra nhng k
c mi. "N khng phi l mt cu hi rng cc t chc phi nh nc liu s s dng mt s
hnh thc k thut hay cng ngh khoa hc thn kinh khng, m l h s s dng vo khi no
v dng nhng loi no ", James Giordano d on, ng l mt chuyn gia nghin cu o
c thn kinh hc ti Trung tm Y t trng i hc Georgetown, theo ng, "B no chnh
l chin trng tip theo."[51]

i khi s sn c v bn cht t nhin ca nhng i mi ny li c mt ngha quan trng

hn na. Nhng xu hng hin ti cho thy mt qu trnh dn ch ha nhanh chng v t
vi kh nng gy thit hi trn mt quy m rt ln, mt th g trc y ch gii hn
trong cc chnh ph v cc t chc c cu trc v cng phc tp. T v kh in bng cng
ngh 3D cho ti k thut bin i gen ngay ti cc phng th nghim k thut trong gia
nh, cc cng c ph hoi da trn mt lot cc cng ngh mi ni ang ngy cng tr nn
c sn. V vi s kt hp ca cng ngh, mt ch chnh ca cun sch ny, ng lc

64
khng th on trc vn ni ln, s thch thc cc khun kh php l v o c ng
thi.

Hng ti mt th gii an ton hn

Khi phi i mt vi nhng thch thc ny, lm th no chng ta thuyt phc ngi dn
nghim tc nhn ra c nhng mi e da bo mt t cc cng ngh mi ni? Thm ch
quan trng hn na, liu chng ta c th to ra mt s hp tc gia khu vc nh nc v t
nhn trn phm vi ton cu gim thiu nhng mi e da?

T na sau ca th k trc, ni s hi chin tranh ht nhn dn dn nhng ch cho s

n nh tng i nh nguyn tc m bo hu dit ln nhau (MAD), v mt iu cm k
ht nhn dng nh xut hin.

Nu logic ca MAD pht huy tc dng cho n nay l bi v ch c mt s lng hn ch

ca cc quc gia s hu sc mnh hon ton tiu dit ln nhau v cc quc gia ny li cn
bng vi nhau. Tuy nhin, s gia tng nhanh chng ca nhng nhn t c kh nng git
ngi c th lm ph hu trng thi cn bng ny, l l do ti sao cc quc gia s hu ht
nhn ng hp tc gi cho nhm cc nc s hu ht nhn quy m nh, v m
phn Hip c Khng ph bin V kh ht nhn (NPT) vo cui nm 1960.

Trong khi khng ng trn hu ht cc vn khc nhau, Lin X v Hoa K hiu rng s
bo v tt nht ca h t trong tnh hung d b tn cng nh trc vi nc kia. iu ny
dn n Hip c chng tn la n o (ABMT), hn ch mt cch hiu qu quyn s dng
cc bin php phng th chng li tn la - v kh mang u n ht nhn. Khi kh nng ph
hoi khng cn gii hn trong mt s t cc thc th vi cc ngun ti nguyn tng t, cc
chin thut v li ch trong vic ngn chn s leo thang cc hc thuyt nh MAD s tr nn
t c lin quan.

c dn dt bi nhng thay i bo trc bi cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t, liu

chng ta c th nhn ra mt s trng thi cn bng thay th m tng t gip xoay chuyn
mi nguy him sang s n nh v an ninh khng? Nhng tc nhn tham gia vi nhng quan
im v li ch rt khc nhau cn phi c kh nng tm kim mt vi dng giao c tm
thi gii quyt tranh chp (modus vivendi) v hp tc trnh cng thng leo thang.

Cc bn lin quan phi phi hp to ra cc khun kh rng buc php l cng nh quy tc
ngang hng t t ra, cc tiu chun o c v c ch kim sot cc cng ngh mi c
kh nng gy nguy hi, m khng cn tr nng lc nghin cu em ti s i mi v tng
trng kinh t.

65
Cc iu c quc t chc chn s l cn thit, nhng ti lo ngi rng cc nh qun l trong
lnh vc ny s thy mnh ang chy pha sau cc tin b cng ngh, nguyn nhn l do tc
ca h v tc ng nhiu mt. Do , cc cuc m thoi gia cc nh gio dc v cc
nh pht trin v cc tiu chun o c l cn thit phi p dng cc cng ngh mi ni ca
cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t thit lp nhng hng dn chung v o c v
p dng chng trong x hi v vn ha. Vi chnh ph v cc cu trc tng ng chnh
ph ang tt li pha sau cc quy nh ca mnh, th thc s cn phi sn sng chp nhn cho
cc nhn t t nhn v phi chnh ph dn ng.

D hiu l cc khu vc qun s v s pht trin ca cc cng ngh chin tranh mi ang din
ra trong mt phm vi tng i c lp. Tuy nhin, ti c mt mi lo ngi l kh nng rt lui
ca cc khu vc khc vo mt phm vi bit lp v tuyt i ring bit, chng hn nh y hc
v nghin cu da trn cng ngh di truyn, khi s lm gim tr thng minh tp th trong
vic tho lun, hiu bit v qun l c nhng thch thc v c hi.

66
3.4 X hi
Tin b khoa hc, thng mi ha v s khuch tn ca i mi l cc tin trnh x hi c
m ra khi con ngi pht trin v trao i cc kin, gi tr, li ch v chun mc x hi
trong mt lot cc bi cnh. iu ny to ra nhng kh khn phn bit y cc tc
ng x hi ca nhng h thng cng ngh mi: c nhiu thnh phn ha quyn vo nhau
bao gm x hi ca chng ta v nhiu i mi m theo mt s cch no cng c to
nn bi chng.

Thch thc ln i vi hu ht cc x hi s l lm th no tip thu v thch ng vi s

hin i mi trong khi vn theo ui nhng kha cnh tt p ca h thng gi tr truyn
thng ca chng ta. Cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t, ang th thch rt nhiu cc gi
nh c bn ca chng ta, c th lm trm trng thm nhng cng thng tn ti gia
nhng cng ng tn ngng bo v cc gi tr c bn ca h v nhng ngi c nim tin
c hnh thnh bi mt th gii quan th tc hn. Mi nguy him ln nht i vi s hp
tc v n nh ton cu c th n t cc nhm cc oan s dng bo lc da trn thc h
chng li tin trnh ny.

Nh nh x hi hc Manuel Castells, gio s cng ngh truyn thng v x hi ti trng

Truyn thng v Bo ch Annenberg, i hc Nam California, lu : "Trong tt c nhng
khonh khc ca bin chuyn cng ngh ln, th con ngi, cc doanh nghip, v nhng t
chc u cm thy chiu su ca s thay i, nhng h thng b chong ngp bi n, m
li tuyt i khng quan tm n ca hiu ng ca n ".[52] B chong ngp v s thiu hiu
bit chnh xc l nhng g chng ta nn trnh, c bit l khi ni n vic cc cng ng a
dng bao gm hnh thc t chc x hi hin i, pht trin v lin h vi nhau nh th no.

Cuc tho lun trc v tc ng khc nhau ca cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t
i vi nn kinh t, kinh doanh, a chnh tr v an ninh quc t, khu vc v thnh ph khin
cho r rng rng cuc cch mng cng ngh mi s c nhiu nh hng i vi x hi.
Trong phn tip theo, ti s nu ln hai trong s nhng yu t quan trng nht ca s thay
i s bt bnh ng gia tng c th gy p lc ln cc tng lp trung lu nh th no, v
vic tch hp cc phng tin truyn thng k thut s ang thay i cch thc cc cng
ng hnh thnh v lin h vi nhau ra sao.
3.4.1 Bt bnh ng v tng lp trung lu

Cuc tho lun v tc ng kinh t v kinh doanh nhn mnh cho n nay mt s chuyn
dch c cu khc nhau gp phn lm tng s bt bnh ng, v iu ny c th tr nn
trm trng hn na khi cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t xy n. Robot v cc thut
ton ngy cng thay th cho ngi lao ng, trong khi u t (hay chnh xc hn, xy dng
mt doanh nghip trong nn kinh t k thut s) tr nn t thm dng vn hn. Trong khi ,
th trng lao ng ang ngy cng thin v mt phm vi gii hn ca cc b k nng k

67
thut, v cc nn tng, th trng k thut s kt ni ton cu ang nhn c nhng phn
thng ngoi c cho ti mt s lng nh cc "sao". Khi tt c nhng xu hng ny xy ra,
ngi chin thng s l nhng ngi c th tham gia y vo h sinh thi theo nh
hng i mi bng cch cung cp nhng tng mi, cc m hnh kinh doanh, sn phm
v dch v, ch khng phi l nhng ngi ch c th a ra lao ng c tay ngh thp hoc
ngun vn thng thng.

Nhng ng lc ny l l do ti sao cng ngh c coi l mt trong nhng nguyn nhn

chnh khin thu nhp ca mt phn ln dn c cc nc c thu nhp cao b chng li hoc
thm ch gim i. Ngy nay, thc s th th gii ang rt bt bnh ng. Theo Bo co Thnh
vng Ton cu nm 2015 ca Credit Suisse, mt na ca tt c cc ti sn trn ton th gii
hin ang c nm gi bi 1% nhng ngi giu nht, trong khi "tng cng mt na dn s
th gii c thu nhp thp s hu t hn 1% ca ci ton cu". [53] T chc Hp tc v Pht
trin kinh t (OECD) cho bit thu nhp bnh qun ca nhm 10% nhng ngi giu nht
cc nc OECD gp khong chn ln so vi nhm 10% nhng ngi ngho nht. [54] Hn
na, bt bnh ng trong hu ht cc nc ang tng ln, thm ch ti nhng nc chng
kin s tng trng nhanh chng tt c cc nhm thu nhp v t l gim ng k s lng
ngi sng trong ngho i. V d, ch s Gini ca Trung Quc tng t khong 30% nm
1980 ln ti hn 45% vo nm 2010. [55]

Bt bnh ng gia tng cn hn l mt hin tng ng quan tm v mt kinh t - l mt

thch thc ln cho x hi. Trong cun sch o lng da trn ng ni-v: Ti sao bnh ng
cao hn khin x hi mnh hn, ca nh dch t hc ngi Anh Richard Wilkinson v Kate
Pickett a ra d liu cho thy rng x hi bt bnh ng c xu hng bo lc hn, c s
lng t nhn nhiu hn, chu bnh tm thn v bnh bo ph mc cao hn, c tui th
thp hn v lng tin gim i. H thy rng h qu l sau khi kim sot cc mc thu nhp
trung bnh, nhng x hi cng bng hn c s lng tr em ngoan ngon hn; s cng thng,
t l s dng ma ty, v t l t vong tr s sinh thp hn.[56] Cc nh nghin cu khc
cho thy rng bt bnh ng cao hn s gia tng s phn bit v lm gim kt qu gio dc
cho tr em v tr v thnh nin.[57]

Trong khi cc d liu thc nghim t chc chn, th cng c nhng ni s hi lan rng rng
mc bt bnh ng tng s dn ti tnh trng bt n x hi cao. Trong s 29 nguy c ton
cu v 13 xu hng trn th gii c ch ra trong Bo co Ri ro ton cu nm 2016 ca
Din n ny, cc mi lin kt mnh nht xy ra gia gia tng chnh lch thu nhp, s khng
n nh trong t l tht nghip hoc thiu vic lm v bt n x hi su sc. Nh phn di
s trnh by r hn, mt th gii kt ni hn v k vng cao hn c th to ra nhng ri ro x
hi ng k nu ngi dn cm thy h khng c c hi t c bt k mc thnh vng
hay ngha trong cuc sng ca h.

68
Ngy nay, mt cng vic trung bnh khng cn m bo mt cuc sng trung lu, v hn 20
nm qua, bn thuc tnh truyn thng ng gp bi tng lp trung lu (gio dc, y t, lng
hu v s hu nh ) th hin ti t hn l mc lm pht. M v Anh, gio dc hin
nay tr thnh xa x phm. Mt nn kinh t th trng m ngi chin thng c tt c,
quyn tip cn ca tng lp trung lu ngy cng hn ch, l nguyn nhn dn ti tnh
trng bt n v th i vi ch dn ch, iu s to nn nhng thch thc x hi.

3.4.2 Cng ng

T mt quan im x hi rng ln, mt trong nhng tc ng mnh nht (v ng ch

nht) ca s ha l s ni ln ca x hi "c nhn l trung tm" - mt qu trnh c nhn ho
v s xut hin ca nhng hnh thc ph thuc v cng ng mi. Tri ngc vi qu kh,
quan im ph thuc vo mt cng ng ngy nay c xc nh r hn bi cc d n ring
t, cc gi tr v li ch c nhn ch khng phi bi khng gian (cc cng ng a phng),
cng vic v gia nh.

Nhng hnh thc mi ca phng tin truyn thng k thut s hnh thnh nn mt thnh
phn ct li ca cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t, ang ngy cng nh hng s sp
xp x hi v cng ng theo c nhn v tp th ca chng ta. Nh Din n ny ch ra
trong Bo co Phng tin Truyn thng K thut s v X hi, phng tin truyn thng k
thut s ang kt ni mi ngi mt-i-mt v mt i tng nhiu i tng theo nhng
cch hon ton mi, cho php ngi s dng duy tr tnh bn qua thi gian v khong cch,
hnh thnh cc nhm li ch mi v to iu kin cho nhng ngi ngi b c lp v mt x
hi hoc th cht c th kt ni vi nhng ngi cng ch hng. Tnh sn c cao, chi ph
thp v cc kha cnh trung tnh v mt a l ca phng tin truyn thng k thut s cng
cho php tng tc ln hn qua cc ranh gii x hi, kinh t, vn ha, chnh tr, tn gio v
thc h.

Tip cn vi phng tin truyn thng k thut s trc tuyn to ra li ch ng k cho nhiu
ngi. Ngoi vai tr ca mnh trong vic cung cp thng tin (v d, ngi t nn chy trn
khi Syria s dng Google Maps v cc nhm Facebook khng ch ln k hoch cc
tuyn ng di chuyn m cn trnh b nhng k bun bn ngi li dng), n cng cung
cp c hi cho cc c nhn c ting ni v tham gia vo cc cuc tranh lun cng dn v qu
trnh ra quyt nh.

Tht khng may, khi cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t trao quyn cho cc cng dn,
n cng c th c s dng hnh ng chng li li ch ca chnh h. Bo co Ri ro
Ton cu nm 2016 ca Din n m t hin tng ca nhng cng dn (khng c) trao
quyn", theo cc c nhn v cng ng ng thi c trao quyn v loi tr bi vic s
dng cc cng ngh mi ni ca cc chnh ph, cc cng ty v cc nhm li ch (xem Hp
G: Nhng cng dn (khng c) trao quyn).

69
Sc mnh dn ch ca phng tin truyn thng k thut s c ngha l n cng c th c
s dng bi cc tc nhn phi chnh ph, c bit l cc cng ng vi nh gy hi
tuyn truyn v vn ng ngi ng h cho nhng mc ch cc oan, nh chng ta thy
gn y vi s ni ln ca Da'esh v cc t chc khng b khc c hiu bit v phng tin
truyn thng x hi.

C mt nguy c l ng lc ca vic chia s l th d in hnh cho vic cc phng tin

truyn thng x hi s dng, c th bp mo qu trnh ra quyt nh v to ra ri ro cho x
hi dn s. Tri ngc li trc gic, thc t l rt nhiu phng tin truyn thng c sn
thng qua cc knh truyn hnh k thut s c th c ngha l ngun tin tc mi ca mt c
nhn b tr nn hp v phn cc vo nhng iu m nh tm l hc lm sng ca trng
MIT, Sherry Turkle, mt gio s nghin cu khoa hc x hi v cng ngh, gi l "vng
xon im lng" (spiral of silence). iu ny quan trng bi v nhng g chng ta c, chia s
v nhn thy trong bi cnh cc phng tin truyn thng x hi u nh hnh cc quyt
nh chnh tr v dn s ca chng ta.

Hp G: Nhng Cng dn (khng c) Trao quyn

Thut ng "Nhng cng dn (khng c) trao quyn" m t qu trnh vn ng ang ni

ln t s tng tc ca hai xu hng: mt c quyn nng, mt b tc quyn. Nhng c nhn
cm thy c trao quyn bi nhng thay i trong cng ngh m khin h thu thp thng
tin, giao tip v t chc sp xp d dng hn, v tri nghim nhng cch thc mi tham
gia vo i sng cng dn. ng thi, cc c nhn, cc nhm x hi dn s, nhng phong
tro x hi v cng ng a phng cm thy ngy cng b loi tr khi s tham gia vo cc
qu trnh ra quyt nh truyn thng, trong c quyn biu quyt v bu c, v b tc ot
quyn ca h trong vic gy nh hng v c lng nghe bi nhng th ch iu hnh x
hi v cc ngun quyn lc trong qun tr quc gia v khu vc.

mc cao nht ca n, c mt mi nguy him rt thc t rng cc chnh ph c th s

dng kt hp cc cng ngh ngn chn hoc n p cc hot ng ca cc t chc x hi
dn s v nhng nhm c nhn, nhng ngi ang c gng to nn tnh minh bch trong
hot ng ca cc chnh ph v doanh nghip, v thc y s thay i. nhiu quc gia trn
th gii c bng chng cho thy khng gian cho x hi dn s ang b thu hp li khi cc
chnh ph thc y lut php v cc chnh sch khc m hn ch s c lp ca cc nhm x
hi dn s v hn ch cc hot ng ca h. Cc cng c ca cuc cch mng cng nghip
ln th t cho php cc hnh thc gim st mi v cc phng tin kim sot khc m i
ngc li nhng x hi lnh mnh v ci m.

Ngun: Bo co Ri ro Ton cu nm 2016, Din n Kinh t Th gii

70
Nh mt v d, mt nghin cu v tc ng ca cc thng ip Get Out The Vote (vn ng
nhng ngi ng h mnh i bu c) trn Facebook cho thy rng chng gip "tng c tri i
bu trc tip khong 60.000 c tri v gin tip thng qua s dng x hi l 280.000 c tri
khc, vi tng s 340.000 phiu bu b sung." [59] Nghin cu ny nhn mnh sc mnh m
cc nn tng phng tin truyn thng k thut s c trong vic la chn v thc y cc
phng tin truyn thng c chng ta s dng trc tuyn. N cng ch ra nhng c hi
cho cc cng ngh trc tuyn pha trn cc hnh thc tham gia ca cng dn truyn thng
(nh b phiu cho cc i din ti a phng, khu vc hoc quc gia) vi cc cch thc
sng to cung cp cho cng dn mt cch nh hng trc tip hn ti cc quyt nh c
tc ng n cng ng ca h.

Vi hu nh tt c cc tc ng c cp trong phn ny, r rng l cuc cch mng cng

nghip ln th t mang li c hi ln ng thi cng t ra nhng ri ro ng k. Mt trong
nhng nhim v quan trng m th gii ang phi i mt khi cuc cch mng ny ni ln l
lm th no thu thp d liu ngy cng nhiu v tt hn v c li ch v thch thc i vi
s gn kt cng ng.

71
3.5. C nhn
Cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t khng ch lm thay i nhng g chng ta lm m
cn thay i vic chng ta l ai. Tc ng ca n i vi cc c nhn chng ta l a dng,
nh hng ti bn sc ca chng ta v cn nhiu kha cnh lin quan khc cm nhn ca
chng ta v s ring t, nim ca chng ta v quyn s hu, m hnh tiu th ca chng ta,
thi gian chng ta dnh lm vic v gii tr, cch thc chng ta pht trin s nghip, v
trau di nhng k nng ca mnh. N s nh hng th no ti vic chng ta gp g v nui
dng cc mi quan h, h thng cp bc m chng ta ph thuc, sc khe ca chng ta, v
c th sm hn chng ta ngh, n c th dn ti cc hnh thc cng ngh gia tng kh nng
ca con ngi (human augmentation)10 khin chng ta phi t cu hi v bn cht s tn ti
ca con ngi. Nhng thay i ny cng gi ra s hng th v s hi khi chng ta ang di
chuyn vi tc cha tng c.

Trc ht, cho n nay, cng ngh cho php chng ta lm vic theo nhng cch d dng
hn, nhanh hn v hiu qu hn. N cng cung cp cho chng ta nhng c hi pht trin
c nhn. Nhng chng ta bt u thy rng c nhiu nguy c v ri ro. i vi tt c l do
c cp, chng ta ang ngng ca mt s thay i mang tnh h thng v n i hi
con ngi phi thch ng lin tc. Kt qu l, chng ta c th chng kin s gia tng mc
phn cc trn th gii, c biu hin bng vic nhng ngi theo ui nhng thay i i
u vi nhng ngi chng li n.

iu ny dn n mt s bt bnh ng vt ra ngoi x hi c cp trc . Bt bnh

ng bn th ny s tch nhng ngi thch ng t nhng ngi chng i ngi chin
thng v k tht bi hu hnh trong tt c ng cnh. Ngi chin thng thm ch c th
hng li t mt s hnh thc ci thin con ngi cp tin c to ra bi nhng phn on
nht nh ca cuc cch mng cng nghip th t (chng hn nh k thut di truyn) t
ngi thua cuc s b tc quyn. iu ny c nguy c to ra nhng xung t giai cp v cc
cuc ng khc khng ging nh bt k iu g chng ta thy c trc . Vic phn
chia tim nng v nhng cng thng n to ra ny s lm trm trng thm s cch bit th h,
trong nguyn nhn l bi nhng ngi ch bit v ln ln trong mt th gii k thut s so
vi nhng ngi khng c g v nhng ngi phi thch nghi. N cng lm ny sinh nhiu
vn v o c.

L mt k s, ti cc k yu thch v am m p dng cng ngh ngay t sm. Nhng ti,

cng nh nhiu nh tm l hc v nh nghin cu x hi t hi, s tch hp khng th trnh
c ca cng ngh vo cuc sng ca chng ta s nh hng n quan nim ca chng ta

10
Cng ngh gia tng kh nng con ngi (human augmentation) thng dng ch cc cng ngh
gip nng cao nng sut v nng lc ca con ngi hoc bng cch no thm chng vo c th
con ngi nh cy ghp hay cc cng ngh khc.
72
v bn sc nh th no v liu rng n c lm gim bt i nhng tinh hoa nng lc ca con
ngi, chng hn nh t ph bnh, ng cm v lng trc n.

3.5.1. Bn sc, o l v o c

Nhng i mi ngoi sc tng tng c kch hot bi cuc cch mng cng nghip ln
th t, t cng ngh sinh hc ti cng ngh tr thng minh nhn to AI, xc nh li
nhng g c ngha vi con ngi. Chng ang y mnh cc ngng hin ti ca tui th,
sc khe, s nhn thc v kh nng theo nhng cch m trc y c coi l dnh cho
khoa hc phi thc t. V hiu bit v nhng pht hin trong cc lnh vc tin b ny vn ang
tin trin, chng ti tp trung v cam kt tho lun cc kha cnh ca o c v o l. L
con ngi v l ng vt mang tnh x hi, chng ta s phi suy ngh v c nhn v tp th
v v cch chng ta phn ng vi cc vn nh m rng cuc sng, nhng a tr c
thit k sn, khai thc b nh v nhiu hn.

ng thi, chng ta cng phi nhn ra rng nhng khm ph l thng cng c th b thao
tng phc v cho nhng li ch c bit v khng nht thit phi c cng b rng ri.
Nh nh vt l l thuyt v tc gi Stephen Hawking v cc nh khoa hc cng s Stuart
Russell, Max Tegmark v Frank Wilczek vit trn tp ch c lp (The Independent) khi
cp n nhng gi v tr tu nhn to: Trong khi cc tc ng ngn hn ca AI ph
thuc vo ai l ngi kim sot n, tc ng di hn li ph thuc vo vic liu rng n c
c hon ton kim sot Tt c chng ta nn t hi bn thn rng by gi chng ta c th
lm g ci thin c hi gt hi li ch v trnh c nhng ri ro.[60]

Mt s pht trin th v trong lnh vc ny l Open AI, mt cng ty nghin cu phi li nhun
c thnh lp vo thng 12 nm 2015 vi mc tiu nng cao kh nng hiu bit k thut
s theo cch m c nhiu kh nng mang li li ch cho nhn loi ni chung, khng b gii
hn bi nhu cu to ra li nhun ti chnh.[61] Sng kin ny ng u bi Sam Altman,
Ch tch Y Combinator v Elon Musk, Gim c iu hnh Tesla Motors cam kt ti tr
mt t la M. Sng kin ny nhn mnh mt im quan trng c t ra trc c
th l, mt trong nhng tc ng ln nht ca cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t l kh
nng nng cao v th xc tc bng vic hp nht cc cng ngh mi. y, nh Sam Altman
tuyn b, cch tt nht AI c th pht trin c l nu n trao quyn cho c nhn v
lm con ngi tt hn, v mang li t do cho mi ngi.[62]

Tc ng ca con ngi vi mt s cng ngh c bit nh mng internet, in thoi thng

minh l tng i r rng v c tranh lun rng ri gia cc chuyn gia v cc nh nghin
cu. Nhng tc ng khc rt kh nm bt. Nh trng hp ca AI hoc sinh hc tng
hc (synthetic biology). Chng ta c th chng kin nhng a b c thit k sn trong
tng lai gn, cng vi l mt lot cc chnh sa khc ti nhn loi ca chng ta t ch

73
xa b cc bnh di truyn ti vic gia tng nng lc ca con ngi. Nhng iu ny s ny
sinh mt s vn v o c v cc cu hi mang tnh tm linh m chng ta phi i mt
vi t cch l con ngi (xem Hp H: Bin gii o c).

HP H: Bin gii o c

Tin b cng ngh ang y chng ta ti mt ngng o c mi - bin gii ca o c.

Liu chng ta nn s dng cc tin b vt bc trong sinh hc ch cha bnh, cha lnh
nhng chn thng, hay chng ta nn t lm bn thn mnh tt hn? Nu chng ta chp nhn
v sau, chng ta c nguy c bin cha m thnh mt phn m rng ca x hi tiu dng, trong
trng hp c th nhng a tr ca chng ta s tr thnh mt loi sn phm hng ha
theo n t hng m ta mong mun hay khng? V iu liu rng c ngha l tt hn?
cha bnh min ph? sng lu hn? c thng minh hn? chy nhanh hn?
c mt din mo no ?

Chng ta phi i mt vi cc vn phc tp tng t v cc nghi vn v tr tu nhn to.

Hy xem xt xa hn kh nng my mc ngh nhanh hn chng ta hoc thm ch vt khi
suy ngh ca chng ta. Amazon v Netflix c thut ton d on cc b phim v cun
sch chng ta mun xem v c. Cc trang web hn h v gii thiu vic lm gi nhng
i tc v cc cng vic trong khu ph ca chng ta hay bt c ni u trn th gii m
h thng ca chng s a ra con s ph hp vi ta nht. Chng ta s lm g? Tin vo nhng
li khuyn c cung cp bi mt thut ton hay chng ta s tm n gia nh, bn b, ng
nghip? Chng ta s tham kho mt bc s robot vn hnh bng tr thng minh nhn to vi
t l chn on thnh cng mt cch hon ho hoc gn nh hon ho hay gn b vi mt
bc s con ngi, ngi m bit chng ta trong nhiu nm qua, vi s m bo v thi
phc v bnh nhn?

Khi chng ta xem xt nhng v d ny v ngha ca n vi con ngi, chng ta ang trong
mt vng t b n vic lm sng r s bin i con ngi khng ging nh bt c kinh
nghim no m chng ta c trc y.

Mt vn khc lin quan n sc mnh tin on ca tr tu nhn to v my hc. Nu

hnh vi ca chng ta trong bt k tnh hung no u c th d on c, th chng ta s c
hoc cm thy cn bao nhiu quyn t do c nhn khin chng ta cn phi chch hng
khi d on ? Liu pht trin ny c kh nng dn n mt tnh hung m con ngi bt
u hnh ng nh robot? iu ny cng dn n mt cu hi trit l hn: Lm th no
chng ta duy tr c c tnh ca mnh, ngun gc a dng v dn ch, trong thi i k
thut s?

74
3.5.2. Kt ni con ngi

Nh cc cu hi o c nu ra trn cho thy, th gii ngy cng s dng nhiu k thut s

v cng ngh cao, th nhu cu giao tip ca con ngi vn ln hn rt nhiu, v n c nui
dng bi cc mi quan h gn b v cc mi lin kt x hi. Ngi ta cng lc cng lo
rng, khi m cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t khin mi quan h cc c nhn v tp
th ca chng ta vi cng ngh thm su sc hn, th n c th nh hng tiu cc ti k
nng x hi v kh nng ng cm ca chng ta. Chng ta thy rng iu ny ang din ra.
Mt nghin cu nm 2010 ti i hc Michigan pht hin s ng cm gia cc sinh vin
ngy nay gim ti 40 % (so vi nhng sinh vin khc cch y 20 hoc 30 nm trc), v
hu ht s st gim ny n t sau nm 2000.[63]

Theo Sherry Turkle ca trng MIT, 44% thanh thiu nin khng bao gi rt tai nghe ra,
thm ch l trong khi chi th thao hoc dng ba vi gia nh hay bn b. Cc cuc tr
chuyn mt i mt s chuyn thnh cc tng tc trc tuyn, ngi ta lo ngi rng mt th
h ton b nhng ngi tr ca x hi truyn thng ang gp kh khn lng nghe, nhn
vo mt ni chuyn hoc c ngn ng c th.[64]

Mi quan h ca chng ta vi cc cng ngh di ng l mt trng hp c th. Thc t vic

chng ta lun c kt ni c th tc i mt trong nhng ti sn quan trng nht ca chng
ta: thi gian tm dng, vic phn hi v tham gia vo mt cuc tr chuyn thc cht
khng cn phi c h tr trung gian bng cng ngh v phng tin truyn thng x hi.
Turkle cp n nghin cu cho thy rng, khi hai ngi ang ni chuyn, ch c s hin
din ca mt chic in thoi trn bn gia h hoc trong tm nhn ngoi vi ca h s lm
thay i c nhng g h ni v v mc mch lc ca cu chuyn.[65] iu ny khng c
ngha chng ta phi t b my in thoi nhng tt hn chng ta nn s dng chng vi
mc ch v i hn.

Cc chuyn gia khc by t cc quan ngi ti cc vn lin quan. Tc gi vi nhiu bi vit

v cng ngh v vn ha, Nicholas Carr, ni rng chng ta cng dnh nhiu thi gian
chm m trong bin k thut s, th kh nng nhn thc ca chng ta cng tr nn nng cn
bi thc t l chng ta khng cn thc hin vic kim sot s ch ca mnh: Mng
internet l mt h thng c thit k gin on, mt c my phc v nhm mc tiu phn
chia s ch . S gin on thng xuyn phn tn t tng ca chng ta, lm suy yu b
nh, v lm cho chng ta cng thng v lo lng. Chng ta cng suy ngh phc tp, th nhng
phin nhiu s cng suy gim.[66]

Tr li nm 1971, Herbert Simon, ngi t gii thng Nobel v Kinh t nm 1971,

cnh bo rng s giu c ca thng tin to ra mt vin cnh ngho nn v vic ch . Ngy
nay iu ny cn ti t hn nhiu, c bit i vi ngi a ra quyt nh c xu hng qu

75
ti vi qu nhiu cng c p o v chong ngp, trong tnh trng cng thng lin tc.
Nh vn chuyn vit v ti du lch Pico Iyer vit Trong thi i pht trin nhanh
chng, khng g c th phn khi hn l c i chm. V trong thi i ca phn tm,
khng c g l qu xa x nh s ch . V trong thi i ca chuyn ng lin tc, khng c
g l qu cp bch nh vic ngi yn.[67]

B no ca chng ta tham gia tt c cc cng c k thut s kt ni vi chng ta trn c s

24 gi, c nguy c tr thnh mt c my chuyn ng lin tc in cung khng ngng
ngh. Cng khng phi bt thng khi ti trao i vi cc nh lnh o, nhng ngi ni h
khng cn thi gian dng li v suy ngh, rng hy t mnh thng thc s xa x ca
vic c sch thm ch l mt bi vit ngn bng tt c cc cch. Nhng ngi a ra quyt
nh t tt c cc thnh phn ca x hi ton cu dng nh ang trong tnh trng ngy cng
kit sc, b ba vy bi nhiu nhu cu cnh tranh khin h chuyn t tht vng n vic t
chc v i khi tuyt vng. Trong thi i k thut s mi ca chng ta, thc s rt kh
khn bc tr li, mc d khng phi l khng lm c.

3.5.3. Qun l Thng tin Cng cng v C nhn

Mt trong nhng thch thc ln nht ca mng internet ni ring, v mc ngy cng tng
v s lin kt ni chung, lin quan n s ring t. l mt vn ang hin ra r rng
hn bi v, nh nh trit hc chnh tr Michael Sandel i hc Havard quan st thy
chng ta ngy cng sn sng nh i i t cho s tin li vi rt nhiu cc thit b m
chng ta thng s dng.68 Pht hin ca Edward Snowden phn no thc y cc cuc
tranh lun ton cu v ngha ca s ring t trong mt th gii minh bch hn v mi
ch l bt u, nh chng ta thy cch m internet c th l mt cng c cha tng c cho s
gii phng v dn ch v cng lc li kch hot kh nng gim st qun chng mt cch
ba bi, su rng v gn nh khng th hiu c.

Ti sao s ring t li c nhiu vn nh vy? Tt c chng ta u hiu theo bn nng rng

v sao s ring t l rt cn thit cho bn thn mi c nhn. Ngay c vi nhng ngi cho
rng h khng c gi tr ring t c bit no v khng c g giu, vn c nhng li ni v
vic lm chng ta c th khng mun ai bit n. C v vn nhng nghin cu cho thy khi
mt ai bit c mnh ang b theo di, th hnh vi ca ngi s tr nn nghim tc v
tun th.

Tuy nhin, cun sch ny khng phi l ni phn nh di dng v ngha ca s ring t
hay gii quyt cc cu hi v quyn s hu d liu. Mc d vy, ti hon ton mong i
rng cuc tranh lun v nhiu vn c bn chng hn nh vic mt kim sot d liu tc
ng nh th no vo i sng ni tm ca chng ta, s ch tng mnh trong vi nm ti
(xem Hp I: Chm sc sc kho v Gii hn ca S ring t).

76
Nhng vn ny l v cng phc tp. Chng ta ch mi bt u cm nhn c v nhng
tc ng tm l, o c v x hi ca chng. Trn cp c nhn, ti d on nhng vn
sau y lin quan n s ring t: Khi cuc sng ca mt ngi no hon ton tr nn
r rng v khi hnh ng v d ln hay nh s u c nhn ra, th ai s l ngi c can
m m nhn trch nhim l ngi lnh o?

Cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t a cng ngh thm nhp ton b v chi phi cuc
sng c nhn ca chng ta, v chng ta ch mi bt u hiu nhng thay i ci t ca cng
ngh s nh hng ti i sng ni tm ca chng ta th no. Cui cng, l phn s ca
mi ngi chng ta bo m chng ta c phc v, ch khng phi l n l cho cng
ngh. cp tp th, chng ta cng phi m bo rng nhng thch thc m cng ngh
em n cho chng ta phi c hiu v phn tch hon ton ch ng. Ch bng cch ny,
chng ta mi c th chc chn rng cuc cch mng cng nghip th t s thc y phc li,
ch khng phi gy tn hi cho chng ta.

HP I: Chm sc Sc kho v Gii hn ca S ring t

Nhng g hin ang xy ra vi thit b eo chm sc sc kho mang n cm gic phc tp

v cc vn ring t. Ngy cng nhiu cng ty bo him ang cn nhc a ra li ngh
ny mua bo him ca h: Nu bn eo mt thit b theo di sc kho - bn ng v tp
luyn bao nhiu, s lng bc chn bn i mi ngy, s lng v loi calo bn n, v.v v
nu bn ng rng thng tin ny c th gi n nh cung cp bo him sc kho ca bn,
chng ti s gim gi trn ph bo him ca bn.

y c phi l mt s pht trin m chng ta nn hoan nghnh bi v n thc y chng ta

c mt cuc sng lnh mnh? Hay l mt ng thi ng lo ngi vi cch gim st cuc sng
t chnh ph hay cc cng ty u ging nhau ngy cng tr nn xm phm nhiu hn?
thi im ny, v d trn cp n s la chn c nhn quyt nh chp nhn eo mt
thit b chm sc sc kho hay khng.

Nhng xa hn na, chng ta hy gi nh rng by gi ngi s dng lao ng ch o mi

nhn vin ca mnh eo mt thit b c bo co d liu y t cho cc cng ty bo him v cng
ty mun nng cao nng sut v c th gim chi ph bo him y t. iu g s xy ra nu cng
ty yu cu nhn vin min cng chp hnh hoc phi np pht? Nhng g trc y dng
nh l s la chn c nhn c thc eo thit b hay khng li tr thnh mt vn tun
th theo chun mc ca x hi mi m ngi ta c c th cho l khng th chp nhn c.

77
78
 Con ng Pha trc
Cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t c th to nn s ph v, nhng nhng thch thc
n t ra chnh l vic ca chng ta. V vy chng ta trong kh nng ca mnh phi gii
quyt chng v to ra nhng thay i v ban hnh cc chnh sch cn thit thch ng (v
pht trin) ti mi trng mi.

Chng ta ch c th gii quyt nhng thch thc ny mt cch c ngha nu chng ta huy
ng tr tu tp th ca tm tr chng ta, tri tim v c tm hn. lm nh vy, ti tin
chng ta phi thch ng, sp xp v khai thc tim nng ca s ph v bng cch bi dng
v p dng bn loi khc nhau ca tr tu:

- Theo ng cnh (tm tr) cch chng ta hiu v p dng nhng hiu bit ca mnh,

- Tnh cm (tri tim) cch chng ta x l v tch hp suy ngh v cm xc ca mnh

v lin h vi bn thn v vi ngi khc,

- Cm hng (tm hn) cch chng ta s dng cm gic ca c nhn v chia s mc

ch, nim tin, v cc c tnh khc thay i v hnh ng hng ti li ch chung,

- Th cht (c th) - cch chng ta nui dng v duy tr sc khe v hnh phc ca
bn thn v ca nhng ngi xung quanh chng ta trong mt tnh trng c th p
dng cc nng lng cn thit cho s chuyn i trn c phng din c nhn v h
thng.

Tr tu theo ng cnh tm tr

Cc nh lnh o gii hiu v kim sot tr tu theo ng cnh.[69] Ng cnh c xc nh

nh l kh nng v s sn sng d don nhng xu th mi v lin kt chng vi nhau. Chng
cu thnh nhng c im chung ca cc nh lnh o gii qua cc th h v, trong cuc
cch mng cng nghip ln th t, chng l mt iu kin tin quyt cho s thch ng v tn
ti.

pht trin tr tu theo ng cnh, nhng ngi a ra quyt nh phi hiu gi tr ca

nhng mng li a dng. H ch c th ng u vi s ph v mc ng k nu
chng c kt ni cao v lin kt mng li mt cch hp l thng qua cc ranh gii truyn
thng. Nhng ngi a ra quyt nh phi c nng lc v sn sng tham gia vi tt c
nhng ai nm gi quyn li trong tay. Bng cch ny, chng ta nn mong mun c kt ni
v tham gia nhiu hn.

79
Ch bng cch nhm hp li v cng cng tc lm vic vi cc nh lnh o doanh nghip,
chnh ph, x hi dn s, tn ngng, hc thut v th h tr th mi c th c c mt ci
nhn ton din v nhng g ang din ra. Thm vo , iu ny cn mang tnh quyt nh
trong vic pht trin v thc hin tch hp cc tng v gii php m s dn n s thay
i bn vng.

y l nguyn tc c a ra trong hc thuyt a bn lin quan (iu m cng ng Din

n Kinh t Th gii thng gi l Linh hn ca Davos), m ti ln u tin xut trong
mt cun sch xut bn nm 1971.[70] Ranh gii gia cc khu vc v ngh nghip l o v
c chng minh l ngy cng phn tc dng. Hn bao gi ht, vic loi b cc ro cn bng
cch lin hp sc mnh ca mng li tin ti nhng i tc hiu qu l ht sc cn thit.
Cc cng ty v t chc tht bi trong vic thc hin iu ny v khng hnh ng bng cch
xy dng nhng t nhm a dng s c mt thi gian kh khn iu chnh s ph v
trong thi i k thut s.

Nhng nh lnh o cng phi chng minh kh nng thay i nhng khun kh tinh thn,
cc khung khi nim v nguyn tc t chc ca h. Trong mt th gii ph v v thay i
nhanh chng ngy nay, vic suy ngh hn ch v c mt ci nhn cng nhc v tng lai
ang tr nn li thi, iu ny gii thch l do ti sao tr thnh mt con co li tt hn l mt
con nhm, nh s phn tch c trnh by bi nh trit hc Isaiah Berlin trong bi vit nm
1953 v nhng nh vn v cc nh t tng11. Hot ng trong mt mi trng ngy cng
phc tp v ri ren i hi tr tu nhanh nhn v lanh li ca con co hn l tm nhn cng
nhc v hn hp ca con nhm. Trong thc t, iu ny c ngha rng cc nh lnh o khng
th suy ngh hn hp. Cch tip cn ca h ti cc vn v nhng thch thc cn phi ton
din, linh hot v thch nghi, lin tc tch hp nhiu quan im v mi quan tm a dng.

Tr tu cm xc Tri tim

Nh l mt s b sung m khng phi l thay th, tr tu theo ng cnh l mt thuc tnh

ngy cng quan trng trong cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t. Nh nh tm l hc
qun l David Caruso ca Trung tm Tr tu cm xc i hc Yale ni, n khng nn b
coi l i nghch vi tr tu l tr hoc cm xc chin thng l tr l giao im c o
ca c hai.[71] Trong vn hc, tr tu cm xc c tin l s cho php cc nh lnh o
sng to hn v khin h tr thnh nhng tc nhn ca s thay i.

i vi cc nh lnh o doanh nghip v hoch nh chnh sch, tr tu cm xc l nn tng

cho nhng k nng quan trng thnh cng trong thi i ca cuc cch mng cng nghip

11
Nh trit hc Isaiah Berlin chia th gii thnh hai nhm ngi: Co v Nhm. Trong bi vit,
ng lp lun rng Co l loi thng minh, tham vng t nhiu mc tiu cng lc. Nhm th ngc
li chm chp, im tnh v ngi ta thng b qua chng bi chng kh kn o v khim tn.
80
ln th t, c th l s t nhn thc, t iu chnh, ng lc, s ng cm v cc k nng x
hi.[72] Nhng hc gi nghin cu v tr tu cm xc ch ra rng nhng ngi quyt nh
v i c phn bit vi nhng ngi trung bnh theo mc tr tu cm xc v c kh
nng nui dng cm xc ny lin tc.

Trong mt th gii c trng bi s thay i dai dng v d di, nhng th ch vi nhng

nh lnh o c tr tu cm xc cao s khng ch sng to hn m cn c trang b tt hn
tr nn nhanh nhn v c kh nng phc hi nhanh hn mt c im thit yu i
ph vi s v. T duy k thut s, kh nng t chc hp tc a chc nng, san phng s
phn cp, v xy dng mi trng nhm khuyn khch mt th h vi nhng tng mi,
ang hon ton ph thuc vo tr tu cm xc.

Tr tu cm hng Tm hn

Cng vi tr tu ng cnh v cm xc, c mt thnh t quan trng th ba iu hng hiu

qu cuc cch mng cng nghip th t. l nhng g ti gi l tr tu cm hng. Phc ha
t ting Latin spirare, th, tr tu cm hng lin tc tm kim ngha v mc ch. N tp
trung vo vic nui dng thi thc s sng to v nng gi tr nhn loi ti mt s hiu bit
tp th v thc o c mi da trn vic chia s s phn.

Chia s l tng chnh y. Nh ti cp trc , nu cng ngh l mt trong

nhng l do ti sao chng ta hng ti mt x hi ly c nhn lm trung tm, tr tu cm
hng tuyt i cn thit chng ta cn bng li xu th ny hng vic tp trung vo bn
thn tin ti mc ch chung. Tt c chng ta u cng nhau v c nguy c khng th gii
quyt cc thch thc ca cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t v gt hi y li ch ca
n tr khi chng ta pht trin chung mt thc v mc ch chia s.

lm iu ny, tin tng l iu cn thit. Cp cao ca vic tin tng l ng h s tham

gia v lm vic nhm, v iu ny tr nn su sc hn trong cuc cch mng cng nghip ln
th t, ni m i mi hp tc l ct li. Qu trnh ny c th ch din ra nu n c nui
dng trong mt mi trng c s tin tng bi l c rt nhiu yu t cu thnh khc nhau
v cc vn lin quan. Cui cng, tt c cc bn lin quan c vai tr m bo vic i mi
l hng ti li ch chung. Nu c bt k nhm ch cht no ca cc bn lin quan cm thy
iu ny khng phi nh th, lng tin s b xi mn.

Trong mt th gii m khng c g l bt bin na, s tin tng tr thnh mt trong nhng
thuc tnh c gi tr nht. S tin tng ch c th c v duy tr c nu nhng ngi ra
quyt nh phi gn cht vi cng ng, v vic a ra quyt nh lun lun v li ch chung
v khng theo ui cc mc tiu c nhn.

81
Tr tu th cht c th

Tr tu ng cnh, cm xc v cm hng l tt c cc thuc tnh cn thit ng u vi,

v c c li ch t, cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t. Tuy nhin, chng s i hi c
s h tr quan trng ca hnh thc tr tu th t th cht, trong bao gm vic h tr v
nui dng sc khe v hnh phc c nhn. iu ny l rt quan trng bi v khi m tc
thay i nhanh chng, phc tp tng ln, v s lng nhng ngi chi tham gia vo qu
trnh ra quyt nh (gn k ngay chng ta) tng ln, th nhu cu gi dng v gi bnh tnh
di sc p tr nn cn thit hn.

Di truyn hc biu sinh, mt lnh vc ca sinh hc pht trin mnh trong nhng nm gn
y, l qu trnh m qua mi trng lm bin i biu hin cc gene ca chng ta. N cho
thy tm quan trng ca gic ng, dinh dng v tp th dc trong cuc sng chng ta. V
d, vic tp th dc u n c mt tc ng tch cc n cch chng ta suy ngh v cm
nhn. N nh hng trc tip ti hiu sut cng vic v cui cng, kh nng thnh cng ca
chng ta.

Hiu v nm bt nhng cch thc mi nhm gi cho c th chng ta hi ha vi tm tr, cm

xc v c th gii l v cng quan trng, v chng ta ang hc thm v iu ny thng qua
nhng tin b ng kinh ngc ang c thc hin trong nhiu lnh vc, bao gm c khoa
hc y t, thit b eo, cng ngh cy ghp v nghin cu no b. Ngoi ra, ti thng ni
rng mt nh lnh o i hi phi c dy thn kinh tt gii quyt hiu qu nhiu vic
cng lc v nhng thch thc phc tp m chng ta ang phi i mt. iu ny s tng tm
quan trng trong vic iu hng v khai thc cc c hi ca cuc cch mng cng nghip
ln th t.

Hng ti mt s phc hng vn ha mi

Nh nh th Rainer Marie Rilke vit. tng lai i vo trong chng ta t bin i

trong chng ta t rt lu trc khi n xy n.[73] Chng ta khng c qun rng thi i
chng ta ang sng hin nay, K Nhn sinh mi hay K nguyn Con ngi, du mc u
tin trong lch s th gii m cc hot ng ca con ngi l lc lng chnh trong vic hnh
thnh cc h thng duy tr s sng trn tri t.

N ty thuc vo chng ta.

Ngy nay chng ta thy mnh cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t, nhn v pha trc
v, quan trng hn na l ang s hu kh nng nh hng ti hng i ca n.

Hiu bit nhng g cn thit pht trin mnh l mt vic; hnh ng theo n li l chuyn
khc. im mu cht nm u v lm cch no chng ta c th chun b tt nht?

82
Voltaire, nh trit hc ngi Php v tc gi ca Khai sng k nguyn con ngi sng
cch y nhiu nm v ch cch ni ti ang vit quyn sch ny c vi dm, tng ni:
Nghi ng l mt trng thi khng d chu g, nhng chc chn l mt iu rt l
bch.[74]Tht vy, s l ngy th khi tuyn b rng chng ta bit chnh xc cuc cch mng
th t s dn ti ni no. Nhng cng s ngy th nh nhau khi b t lit bi s hi v khng
chc chn v hng i . Nh ti tng nhn mnh trong sut cun sch ny, sau cng
hng i ca cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t s c xc nh r bi kh nng
chng ta hnh thnh cch gii phng ton b tim nng ca n.

R rng, cc thch thc cng nh kh khn hay c hi u rt hp dn. Cng nhau, chng ta
phi lm vic bin nhng thch thc ny thnh cc c hi tng xng v ch ng
chun b cho nhng nh hng v tc ng ca chng. Th gii ang thay i nhanh chng,
siu kt ni, phc tp hn bao gi ht v b phn mnh hn nhng chng ta vn nh hnh
tng lai trong mt cch m tt c u c li ch. Cnh ca c hi ang rng m.

Bc i u tin v quan trng l chng ta phi tip tc nng cao nhn thc v s hiu bit
qua tt c cc lnh vc ca x hi, l nhng g cun sch ny mong mun t c.
Chng ta phi ngng suy ngh mt cch rp khun khi ra quyt nh - c bit l nhng
thch thc m chng ta phi i mt ngy cng c mi lin h vi nhau. Ch c cch tip cn
ton din mi c th em li hiu bit cn thit gii quyt nhiu vn t ra bi cuc
cch mng cng nghip ln th t. iu ny s i hi cc cu trc linh hot v phi hp
phn nh s tch hp ca cc h sinh thi khc nhau, c tnh n ton b cc bn lin quan,
lin kt khu vc cng v t nhn, cng nh c s am hiu nht v th gii xung quanh.

Th hai, xy dng trn mt s hiu bit chung, chng ta cn phi pht trin cu chuyn theo
hng tch cc, bao qut v ton din v cch chng ta nh hnh cuc cch mng cng
nghip ln th t cho hin ti v th h mai sau. Mc d chng ta khng th bit chnh xc
ni dung nhng cu chuyn , nhng chng ta nm c nhng tnh nng quan trng m
chng c. V d, chng phi lm r cc nguyn tc gi tr v o c trong cc h thng
tng lai ca chng ta. Th trng c iu khin hiu qu to ra ca ci, nhng chng ta
phi m bo rng cc gi tr v o c l trung tm ca hnh vi c nhn v tp th, v cc
h thng nui dng chng. Nhng cu chuyn ny cng phi tin trin dn n mc cao
hn trong vic xc nh quan im, t khoan dung, tn trng n quan tm v cm thng.
Chng cng cn c nng cao v th, ton din v c thc y bi cc gi tr chung
khuyn khch iu ny.

Th ba, trn c s nhn thc tng ln v s chia nhng cu chuyn, chng ta phi bt tay vo
vic ti c cu h thng nn kinh t, chnh tr v x hi tn dng tt c li th c hi. R
rng l hin ti h thng ra quyt nh ca chng ta v cc m hnh chi phi vic to ra ca
ci c thit k v tng bc pht trin qua ba cuc cch mng cng nghip. Nhng h
thng ny, tuy nhin, khng cn c trang b cung cp cho hin ti, v cho n thi

83
im, cc nhu cu ca th h tng lai trong bi cnh cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th
t. iu ny i hi s i mi r rng ca h thng v khng phi ch iu chnh quy m
nh hay ci cch bn ra.

Ba bc va ri cho thy, chng ta khng th t c iu m khng tin hnh hp tc

v i thoi - cc cp a phng, quc gia v siu quc gia, vi tt c cc bn quan tm c
ting ni. Chng ta cn phi tp trung vo vic t c cc iu kin c bn chnh, v
khng ch tp trung ti cc kha cnh k thut. Nh nh tin ha Martin Nowrak, Gio s
ton hc v sinh hc ti trng i hc Havard, nhc nh chng ta, hp tc l iu duy nht
s cu nguy cho nhn loi.[75] L ngi sng to chnh ca bn t nm tin ha, hp tc l
mt ng lc bi l n cho php chng ta thch ng trong bi cnh ngy cng phc tp v
tng cng s gn kt chnh tr, kinh t v x hi qua t c s pht trin bn vng.

Vi s hp tc nhiu bn c hiu qu, ti tin chc rng cuc cch mng cng nghip lnth
t c tim nng gii quyt v kh nng x l nhng thch thc chnh m th gii hin
nay ang phi i mt.

Cui cng, l v con ngi, vn ha v cc gi tr. Tht vy, chng ta cn phi lm vic
rt chm ch m bo rng tt c cc cng dn trn khp cc nn vn ha, cc quc gia v
cc nhm c thu nhp hiu s cn thit lm ch cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t
v nhng thch thc nn vn minh ca n.

Hy cng nhau hnh thnh mt tng lai ph hp cho tt c bng cch t con ngi ln
trc, trao quyn cho h v lin tc nhc nh bn thn rng tt c nhng cng ngh mi ny
l u tin v trc ht ch l cng c c con ngi to ra cho con ngi.

Chng ta v vy hy cng tp th chu trch nhim cho tng lai ni m s i mi v cng

ngh l trung tm ca nhn loi v l nhu cu phc v cc li ch cng cng, v m bo
rng chng ta s dng chng a chng ta hng n s pht trin bn vng.

Chng ta c th tin xa hn na. Ti tin chc rng thi i cng ngh mi, nu c nh
hnh theo cch nhit tnh v trch nhim, c th xc tc cho mt s phc hng vn ha mi
m s cho chng ta cm nhn c mt phn iu g ln hn bn thn chng ta rt nhiu
mt nn vn minh ton cu thc s. Cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t c kh nng
to ra con ngi t ng ha, v do tha hip cc ngun truyn thng ca chng ta v
ngha cng vic, cng ng, gia nh, bn sc. Hoc chng ta c th s dng cuc cch
mng cng nghip ln th t nng nhn loi ln thnh mt tp th mi v c s hiu bit
o c da trn thc chung v vn mnh. Phn s ca tt c chng ta l phi chc chn l
v sau chnh l iu s xy ra.

84
85
 Li cm n
Tt c chng ti ti Din n Kinh T Th Gii nhn thc c trch nhim ca chng ti,
nh t chc quc t cho cng t, phc v nh mt nn tng ton cu gip xc nh nhng
thch thc lin quan n cuc cch mng cng nghip th t v gip cho tt c cc bn lin
quan hnh thnh cc gii php ph hp mt cch ch ng v ton din, trong hp tc vi
cc i tc, thnh vin, v cc thnh phn.

V l do ny, ch ca Cuc hp thng nin ca Din n nm 2016 ti Davos-Klosters l

Lm Ch Cuc Cch Mng Cng Nghip Th T. Chng ti cam kt lm nhn t kch
thch cc cuc tho lun mang tnh xy dng v hp tc xung quanh ch ny trn tt c
cc thch thc ca chng ti, cc d n v cc cuc hp. Cuc hp thng nin ca Din n
v cc nh v ch mi ti Thin Tn, Trung Quc, vo thng 6 nm 2016, cng s mang n
mt c hi quan trng cho cc nh lnh o v cc nh cch tn qua nghin cu, cng ngh,
thng mi ha v quy nh gp g v trao i cc tng v cch khai thc cuc cch
mng cng nghip th t c c li ch ln nht cho tt c. i vi tt c cc hot ng
ny, ti hy vng rng cun sch ny phc v nh l s v lng v hng dn, trang b cho
cc nh lnh o vt ln vi cc tc ng ca kinh t, chnh tr v x hi cng nh hiu c
nhng tin b trong cng ngh to ra chng.

Cun sch ny s khng c c nu khng c s tham gia v h tr nhit tnh ca tt c cc

ng nghip ca ti ti Din n Kinh T Th Gii. Ti n h li cm n su sc. Ti xin
by t lng bit n c bit ti Nicholas Davis, Thierry Malleret v Mel Rogers ngi cng
s khng th thiu trong sut qu trnh nghin cu v vit. Ti cng chn thnh cm n cc
ng nghip v tt c cc nhm ng gp tng phn c th trong cun sch, c bit l
Jenifer Blanke, Margareta Drzeniek-Hanouz, Silvia Magnoni v Saadia Zahidi v kinh t v
x hi; Jim Hagemann Snabe, Mark Spelman v Bruce Weinelt v kinh doanh v cng
nghip; Dominic Waughray v mi trng, Helena Leurent v cc chnh ph; Espen Barth
Eide v Anja Kaspersen v khoa a chnh tr v an ninh quc t; v Oliver Oullier v cng
ngh thn kinh.

Vit cun sch ny pht hin c nhng kin chuyn mn c bit trn ton b nhn
vin ca Din n, v ti cm n tt c mi ngi chia s nhng kin ca mnh vi ti,
c trc tuyn v ch thn h. Ti y, c bit, Ti xin cm n cc thnh vin ca bit i
Cng ngh mi: David Gleicher, Rigas Hadzilacos, Natalie Hatour, Fulvia Montresor v
Olivier Woeffray v nhiu ngi khc dnh thi gian suy ngh chuyn su v nghin cu
ny: Chidiogo Akunyili, Claudio Cocorocchia, Nico Daswani, Mehran Gul, Alejandra
Guzman, Mike Hanley, Lee Howell, Jeremy Jurgens, Bernice Lee, Alan Marcus, Adrian
Monck, Thomas Philbeck v Philip Shetler-Jones.

86
Ti xin dnh lng bit n su sc ti cc thnh vien ca Din n cng ng nhng ngi
gip ti hnh thnh suy ngh v Cuc cch mng cng nghip th t. Ti c bit cm n
Andrew McAfee v Erik Brynjolfsson v truyn cm hng cho tng ca ti v tc
ng ca i mi cng ngh v nhng c hi v thch thc to ln pha trc, v Dennis
Snower v Steawart Wallis cho vic nhn mnh s cn thit phi tng thut da trn nhng
gi tr nu chng ta mun thnh cng trong vic khai thc cuc cch mng cng nghip th
t v li ch ton cu.

Gi li cm n ti Marc Benioff, Katrine Bosley, Justine Cassell, Mariette DiChristina,

Murali Doraiswamy, Nita Farahany, Zev Furst, Nik Gowing, Victor Halberstadt, Ken Hu,
Lee Sang-Yup, Alessio Lomuscio, Jack Ma, Ellen MacArthur, Peter Maurer, Bernard
Meyerson, Andrew Maynard, William McDonough, James Moody, Andrew Moore, Michael
Osborne, Fiona Paua Schwab, Feike Sijbesma, Vishal Sikka, Philip Sinclair, Hilary Sutcliffe,
Nina Tandon, Farida Vis, Sir Mark Walport v Alex Wyatt, tt c nhng ngi m ti
trao i th t hoc c phng vn vit cun sch ny.

Mng li Hi ng Chng trnh Ngh s Ton cu ca Din n v cng ng hng ti

tng lai ca chng ti, tham gia mnh m trong ch ny v cung cp nhng hiu bit
phong ph v tt c ch tho lun y. c bit nh gi cao i vi Hi ng Ngh s
Ton cu v Tng lai ca Phn mm v X hi, Di c v Tng lai ca Cc thnh ph. Ti
cng bit n danh sch ng k cc nh lnh o t tng, nhng ngi rt ho phng ng
gp thi gian v hiu bit v ch ny trong thi gian Hi ngh Thng nh v Chng
trnh ngh s nm 2015 ti Abu Dhabi, cng nh cc thnh vin ca Din n, cc nh lp k
hoch ton cu, Lnh o tr ton cu, v cng ng cc nh khoa hc tr, c bit l nhng
ngi ng gp kin trn c TopLink, nn tng kin thc o v hp tc ca Din n.

c bit cm n ti Aljandro Reyes lm bin tp, Scott David lm thit k, v Kamal

Kiamaoui lm b cc v nh xut bn lin lc.

c cun sch sn sng cho Cuc hp thng nin nm 2016, n c vit trong vng
cha y 3 thng vi s cng tc ca tt c mi ngi trn th gii. iu ny thc s phn
nh nhp nhanh, mi trng nng ng ca cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t. Cui
cng, ti xin truyn t lng bit n su sc ca ti ti ngi c, bt tay vo cuc hnh
trnh ny vi ti, v cam kt lu di ci thin tnh hnh th gii.

87
 Ph lc: Bin i Su sc

Trong cuc cch mng cng nghip ln th t, kt ni k thut s bng cng ngh phn mm
ang lm thay i c bn x hi. Quy m v tc ng v tc ca nhng thay i ang
din ra to nn nhng Bin i khc bit vi tt c cc cuc cch mng cng nghip khc
trong lch s loi ngi.
Hi ng Chng trnh ngh s Din n Kinh t Th gii v Tng lai ca Phn mm v
X hi tin hnh mt cuc kho st 800 gim c iu hnh nh gi khi no cc nh
lnh o kinh doanh d on rng nhng cng ngh lm thay i ny s xm nhp vo phm
vi cng cng mt mc ng k, v hiu y cc tc ng ca nhng chuyn bin
ny vi cc c nhn, t chc, chnh ph v x hi.
Theo Bo co kho st Nhng Bin i su sc im bng pht Cng ngh v Tc ng x
hi c xut bn vo thng 9 nm 2015.[76] Nhng ghi chp di y l 21 chuyn bin
cng ngh trong nghin cu v hai mc c nu trong , bao gm nhng im bng pht
cng ngh v thi gian d kin ca chng s xut hin trn th trng.

88
 Bin i 1: Cng Ngh Cy Ghp trn C th Ngi

im bng pht: Chic in thoi di ng cy ghp trn c th ngi u tin c bn ra

trn th trng

n nm 2025: 82% trong s ngi c hi d kin im bng pht ny s xy ra.

Con ngi ang kt ni nhiu hn ti cc thit b, v cc thit b cng ngy cng kt ni vi
c th h. Thit b khng h b hao mn i, m cn c cy ghp vo c th, phc v
giao tip, nh v v theo di hnh vi, v chc nng y t.
My iu ho nhp tim v thit b tr thnh c cy di da ch l khi u ca vic ny,
cng vi nhiu cc thit b y t khc lin tc c a ra. Nhng thit b ny c th c c
thng s ca bnh tt; cho php cc c nhn thc hin, gi d liu ti cc trung tm theo di,
hoc c kh nng pht hnh cc loi thuc cha bnh t ng.
Hnh xm thng minh v cc vi mch n nht khc c th gip nhn dng v nh v. Cng
ngh cy ghp cng c kh nng truyn ti suy ngh thng c th hin bng li ni thng
qua mt chic in thoi thng minh tch hp, v c kh nng khng th hin suy ngh v
tm trng bng cch c sng no v cc tn hiu khc.

Tc ng tch cc
- Gim thiu vic tr em b mt tch
- Tng kt qu sc kho tch cc
- Nng cao kh nng t tc
- a ra quyt nh tt hn
- Nhn din hnh nh v d liu c nhn c sn (Mng li n danh s tm kim con
ngi) [77]

Tc ng tiu cc
- S ring t/Kh nng b theo di
- Gim bo mt d liu
- Thot ly thc t v gy nghin
- Tng s phin nhiu (v d: hi chng suy gim kh nng ch tr em)

89
Nhng tc ng cha bit, hay hai mt ca vn
- Ko di tui th
- Thay i bn cht cc mi quan h con ngi
- Thay i trong tng tc c nhn v cc mi quan h
- Xc nh thi gian thc
- Bin i vn ho (b nh vnh cu)

- Bin i ang din ra

- Hnh xm k thut s khng ch trng rt thu ht m cn c th thc hin nhiu nhim
v hu ch, nh m kho t, nhp m in thoi di ng vi mt ngn tay hay theo
di qu trnh ca c th.
Ngun: https://wtvox.com/3d-printing-in-wearable-tech/top-10-implantable-wearables-soon-body/

- Theo mt bi vit trn WT VOX: Smart Dust, mt chic my tnh hon chnh vi
kch thc nh hn mt ht ct, chng c th t t chc bn trong c th thnh mt
mng li lm vic khi cn n vi mt lot cc quy trnh ni b phc tp. Hy tng
tng chng tn cng nhng t bo ung th, lm gim au vt thng hoc thm ch
lu tr thng tin c nhn quan trng bng cch m ho phc tp v rt kh b ly cp.
Vi smart dust, cc bc s c th tin hnh cha bnh bn trong c th bn m khng
cn phi m ra, v thng tin c th c lu tr bn trong bn, m ho phc tp, cho
n khi bn m kho n t mng c nhn ca mnh.
Ngun: https://wtvox.com/3d-printing-in-wearable-tech/top-10-implantable-wearables-soon-body/

- Vin thuc thng minh, c pht trin bi Protes Biomedical v Novartis, c mt

thit b k thut s phn hu sinh hc gn lin vi n, truyn d liu n in thoi
ca bn vic cch c th tng tc vi thuc.
Ngun: http://cen.acs.org/articles/90/i7/Odd-Couplings.html

90
 Bin i 2: Hin din S

im bng pht: 80% ngi dn c s hin din s trn mng internet

n nm 2025: 84% ngi c hi d kin im bng pht ny s xy ra.

S hin din ca th gii s pht trin nhanh chng trong vng 20 nm tr li y. Ch 10
nm trc y, n c ngha l mt s in thoi di ng, a ch email v c l l mt trang
web c nhn hoc mt trang Myspace.
Gi y, hin din s ca con ngi c coi l k thut con ngi tng tc, v pht hin
thng qua nhiu phng tin trc tuyn v truyn thng. Nhiu ngi c nhiu hn mt hin
din k thut s, nh trang Faebook, ti khon Twitter, h s LinkedIn, nht k Tumblr, ti
khon Instagram v nhiu hn th na.
Trong th gii ngy cng c kt ni ca chng ta, cuc sng s lun gn b cht ch vi
i sng vt cht ca con ngi. Trong tng lai, vic xy dng v qun l hin din s s
tr thnh ph bin nh cch ngi ta quyt nh gii thiu bn thn mnh mi ngy qua thi
trang, li ni v hnh vi. Trong th gii kt ni v thng qua s hin din s ca h, con
ngi c th tm kim v chia s thng tin, t do biu t tng, tm ti v khm ph, v
pht trin v duy tr cc mi quan h o bt c ni u trong th gii.

Tc ng tch cc
- Tng cng s minh bch
- Tng cng v kt ni nhanh hn gia c nhn v cc nhm
- Tng cng t do ngn lun
- Trao i/ ph bin thng tin nhanh hn
- S dng hiu qu hn cc dch v ca chnh ph

Tc ng tiu cc
- S ring t/Kh nng b theo di
- Trm cp danh tnh nhiu hn
- Quy ri/e da trc tuyn
- T duy tp th trong cc nhm li ch v tng phn cc

91
 Privacy/potential surveillance
More identity theft
Online bullying/stalking
Groupthink within interest groups and increased polarization
- Disseminating
Ph bin thng tin inaccurate information
khng chnh xc
12
(the
(nhu cu qun for hiu ng phng
needting);
l danh
cch ly (echo chambers) [78]
reputation management); echo chambers78
- Lack minh bch ti niwhere
of transparency
Thiu tnh cc c nhn khng chiaare
individuals s cc
notthut
privy
tontothng tin (tin
tc/thng tin)
information algorithms (for news/information)

Nhng tc ng cha bit, hay hai mt ca vn

Unknown, or cuts both ways
- Nhng du chn/di sn k thut s
Digital legacies/footprints i
Qung co c mc ch hn
- More targeted advertising
- More targeted
Tin tc/thng mc ch hn and news
tin cinformation
- Individual profilng
To h s c nhn
- Permanent
Danh tnh vnh identity (no
vin (khng ncanonymity)
danh)
- Ease of developing online social movement (political groups,
D dng pht trin phong tro x hi trc tuyn (cc nhm chnh tr, nhm li ch, s
interest groups,
thch, nhm khng b) hobbies, terrorist groups)

The
Bin ishift in action
ang din ra
If ba
Nu the three
trang mnglargest popular
x hi ph bin lnsocial
nht l media
cc qucsites
gia, thwere
chngcountries,
s c gn 1 tthey
dn hn
cwould haveQuc
dn s Trung almostXema hnh
billion
I. more people than China See Figure I.

Figure I: lng
Hnh I: S Activengi s dng
Users mng Media
of Social x hi sosites
snh compared
vi dn s ca cc quc
with the gia ln
nht trn
populations of the worlds largest th gii
countries

Source: http://mccrindle.com.au/the-mccrindle-blog/social-media-and-narcissism
Ngun: http://mccrindle.com.au/the-mccrindle-blog/social-media-and-narcissism
124 Phng tin Giao tip mi
Bin i 3: nh mt Tr thnh
12
Tnh trng trong mt cng ng khp kn, ch ton nhng ngi cng li suy ngh trao i vi
nhau nhng kin m tt c u ng tnh, khng c ch cho nhng quan im i trng.
92
im bng pht: 10% knh c sch c kt ni internet

n nm 2025: 86% ngi c hi d kin im bng pht ny s xy ra

Google Glass ch l mt trong nhiu cch tim nng, trong mt knh, knh mt/tai nghe v
cc thit b theo di nh mt c th tr nn thng minh v a i mt v tm nhn tr
thnh phng tin kt ni vi internet v cc thit b kt ni khc.
Vi vic truy cp trc tip vo cc ng dng internet v d liu thng qua nh mt, kinh
nghim c nhn c th c nng cao, thng qua gin tip hoc hon ton tng cao cung
cp thc t nhp vai khc nhau. Ngoi ra, vi cng ngh, thit b theo di nh mt mi c th
nhp thng tin qua giao din th gic, v i mt c th l ngun tng tc v phn hi
thng tin.
Cho php coi nh mt nh mt giao din trc tip bng cch cung cp hng dn, trc
quan v tng tc c th lm thay i cch hc, nh hng, hng dn v phn hi cho
sn xut hng ha v dch v, tri nghim gii tr v cho php ngi tn tt nhn c s h
tr tham gia nhiu hn vi th gii.

Tc ng tch cc
- Thng tin trc tip ti c nhn gip thc hin nhng quyt nh c bo trc
cho vic nh hng v lm vic/cc hot ng c nhn
- Nng cao nng lc thc hin nhim v hoc sn xut hng ha v dch v vi cc
phng tin tr gip cho sn xut, chm sc sc khe/phu thut v cung cp dch v
- Cho php nhng ngi khuyt tt qun l s tng tc v chuyn ng ca mnh, v
tri nghim th gii thng qua vic ni, nh my v di chuyn, v qua cc tri
nghim nhp vai

Tc ng tiu cc
- Mt tp trung gy tai nn
- Tn thng v tinh thn do cc tri nghim nhp vai tiu cc
- Tng khuynh hng thot ly thc t v gy nghin

Nhng tc ng cha bit, hay hai mt ca vn

93
 - To ra mt phn khc mi trong ngnh cng nghip gii tr
- Tng cng thng tin tc thi

Bin i ang din ra

Nhng chic knh xut hin trn th trng hin nay (khng ch l cc sn phm ca
Google) c th:
- Cho php bn t do iu khin i tng 3D, cho php tu bin thc hin ging nh
vic nn t st thnh hnh dng
- Cung cp tt c cc thng tin trc tip m rng m bn cn khi bn nhn thy mt vi
th, ging nh chc nng hot ng ca b no
- Nhc nh bn vi mt danh sch sp xp cc nh hng m bn i ngang qua
- Chiu nhng hnh nh hoc video trn bt k mu giy no
Ngun: http://www.hongkiat.com/blog/augmented-reality-smart-glasses/

94
 Bin i 4: Thit b eo trn ngi Kt ni Internet

im bng pht: 10% s ngi s dng thit b eo trn ngi kt ni vi internet

n nm 2025: 91% ngi c hi d kin im bng pht ny s xy ra

Cng ngh ang ngy cng mang tnh c nhn. u tin my vi tnh c t trong nhng
cn phng ln, sau trn bn v, sau , nh gn trn ngi. Trong khi cng ngh hin nay
l chic in thoi di ng t trong ti ca mi ngi, n s sm c tch hp trc tip vo
qun o v ph kin.
Pht hnh vo nm 2015, chic ng h ca cng ty Apple (Apple Watch) kt ni internet
v cha rt nhiu chc nng nh mt chic in thoi thng minh. Cng ngy qun o v cc
vt dng khc s gn vi mch kt ni cc vt v ngi mc chng vi internet.

Tc ng tch cc
- Kt qu tch cc i vi sc khe nhiu hn dn n ko di tui th
- Tnh t lp cao hn
- T qun l sc khe ca bn thn
- a ra quyt nh tt hn
- Gim vic tr em b mt tch
- Qun o c nhn ha (may, thit k)

Tc ng tiu cc
- S ring t/Kh nng b theo di
- Thot ly thc t/ gy nghin
- Bo mt d liu

Nhng tc ng cha bit, hoc hai mt ca vn

- Xc nh thi gian thc
- Thay i trong tng tc c nhn v cc mi quan h

95
 - Nhn din hnh nh v d liu c nhn c sn (mng nc danh s tm kim con
ngi)

Bin i ang din ra

Nhm nghin cu v t vn, Gartner, d lin khong 70 triu ng h thng minh v cc sn
phm khc s c by bn vo nm 2015, vi tng s tng ln 514 triu trong vng 5 nm.
Ngun: http://www.zdnet.com/article/wearables-internet-of-thingsmuscle-in-on-smartphone-
spotlight-at-mwc/

Mimo Baby (thit b s chm sc tr em) to ra mt thit b eo gim st s pht trin ca

tr, n s bo co tnh trng ca tr nh hi th, nhp tim, t th ng, cht lng gic ng
ti Ipad hoc in thoi di ng ca bn. iu ny gy ra mt s tranh ci v ranh gii
gia vic gip , v to ra mt gii php cho mt vn khng h tn ti. Trong trng
hp ny, nhng ngi tr gip s ni rng vic ny s gip tr ng ngon hn, trong khi cc
nh ph bnh cho rng thit b cm bin khng th thay th cho cha m.
Ngun: http://mimobaby.com/;
http://money.cnn.com/2015/04/16/smallbusiness/mimo-wearable-baby-monitor/

Raphl Lauren pht trin mt chic o th thao cung cp d liu thi gian tp luyn thc
bng cch o lng m hi tit ra, t l nhp tim, cng th, v.v.
Ngun:
http://www.ralphlauren.com/product/index.jsp?productId=69917696&ab=rd_men_features_thepolot
echshirt&cp=64796626.65333296

96
 Bin i 5: M hnh in ton Phn tn rng khp13

im bng pht: 90% dn s thng xuyn truy cp internet

n nm 2025: 79% ngi c hi d kin im bng pht ny s xy ra

My vi tnh ngy cng d tip cn, v sc mnh ca my vi tnh cha bao gi li sn c cho
cc c nhn nh th - ch cn thng qua mt chic my tnh kt ni internet, mt chic in
thoi thng minh vi 3G/4G hoc cc dch v trn m my.
Ngy nay, 43% dn s th gii kt ni vi internet.[79] V 1,2 t chic in thoi thng minh
c bn ra ch ring trong nm 2014.[80] Trong nm 2015, doanh s bn my tnh bng
c tnh vt qua c doanh s bn my tnh c nhn (PCs), trong khi doanh s bn in thoi
di ng (kt hp tt c tnh nng s bn vt doanh s my tnh c nhn vi t l 6 - 1.[81]
Khi internet pht trin nhanh chng tt c cc knh truyn thng, n c k vng rng, ch
trong vi nm ti, dn s th gii s thng xuyn truy cp cc trang mng.
Trong tng lai, vic thng xuyn truy cp internet v thng tin s khng cn l li ch cho
pht trin li ch nn kinh t, m l mt quyn c bn ging nh nc sch. Bi v cng
ngh khng dy t i hi c s h tng hn so vi nhiu tin ch khc (in, ng giao
thng v nc), chng s d tip cn hn nhiu th khc. Do , bt c ai n t quc gia
no u c th truy cp v tng tc vi thng tin bt c ni no trn th gii. Sng to ni
dung v ph bin thng tin s tr nn d dng hn bao gi ht.

Tc ng tch cc
- Nhng ngi dn chu thit thi vng xa xi v km pht trin tham gia nhiu hn
vo nn kinh t (giai on cui last miles)
- Tip cn vi gio dc, chm sc sc khe, v cc dch v ca chnh ph
- S hin din
- Tip cn cc k nng, tng kh nng c vic lm, thay i cc loi cng vic
- M rng quy m th trng/ thng mi in t
- Nhiu thng tin
- S tham gia nhiu hn ca cng dn
- Dn ch ha/ thay i chnh tr
13
L m hnh mt ngi tng tc cng mt lc vi nhiu thit b cng ngh
97
 - Giai on cui: tng tnh minh bch v s tham gia so vi vic tng s thao tng v
hiu ng phng cch ly (echo chambers)

Tc ng tiu cc
- Tng s thao tng v tnh th phng cch ly
- Phn mnh chnh tr
- Nhng khu vn b bao quanh (ngha l mi trng hn ch, ch dnh cho ngi s
dng c xc nhn) khng cho php s tip cn hon ton ti mt s khu vc/
quc gia

Bin i ang din ra

4 t ngi s dng tip theo c th s dng internet, hai thch thc chnh phi c khc
phc: Truy cp phi lun sn sng, v c gi c phi chng. Cuc chy ua cung cp phn
cn li ca th gii c th truy cp internet ang c thc hin. Hin ti, hn 85% dn s
th gii sng trong khu vc c vi cy s li c mt thp in thoi di ng cung cp dch
v internet.[82] Cc nh khai thc di ng trn ton th gii ang m rng vic truy cp
internet nhanh chng. D n Internet.org ca Facebook, mt d n khai thc mng di ng,
cho php truy cp min ph cc dch v internet c bn vi hn 1 t ngi trn 17 quc gia
trong nm ngoi.[83] V, nhiu sng kin c thc hin kt ni n ngay c nhng vng
xa xi nht: d n Internet.org ca Facebook ang pht trin my bay khng ngi li bng
internet, D n Loon ca Google ang s dng bng bay v SpaceX (tp on khai ph cng
ngh khng gian) ang u t vo mng li v tinh mi vi chi ph thp.

98
 Bin i 6: Siu My tnh B ti

im bng pht: 90% dn s s dng in thoi thng minh

n nm 2025: 81% ngi c hi d kin im bng pht ny s xy ra.

Ngay trong nm 2012, nhm nghin cu Google cng b rng: s phi mt cng mt
khong thi gian tnh ton tr li mt truy vn Google ging nh tt c cc tnh ton c
thc hin trn khng v trn mt t cho ton b chng trnh Apollo [84]. Tuy nhin,
in thoi thng minh v my tnh bng hin nay c kh nng tnh ton hn rt nhiu cc
siu my tnh trc y tng c bit n, nhng chic my phi mt c mt cn phng
cha chng.
D on s lng thu bao in thoi thng minh ton cu tng cng ln ti 3,5 t thu bao
vo nm 2029; tng ng vi 59% dn s s dng, vt qua mc s dng 50% vo nm
2017 v v mc tng trng ln ti 28% nm 2013 [85]. Safaricom, nh cung cp dch v di
ng hng u ti Kenya, bo co rng nm 2014, 67% doanh s bn hng l in thoi di
ng thng minh v GSMA d on rng Chu Phi s c hn na t ngi s dng in
thoi thng minh vo nm 2020 [86].
Chuyn i thit b xy ra ti nhiu quc gia qua nhiu yu t khc nhau (Chu dn u
xu hng hin nay), nhiu ngi s dng in thoi thng minh hn l my tnh c nhn
truyn thng. Khi cng ngh ang tin ti vic thu nh cc thit b, tng cng sc mnh
tnh ton v, c bit, gim mc gi cc thit b in t, th t l s dng in thoi thng
minh s ch tng trng nhanh hn.
Theo Google, cc quc gia trong Hnh II c t l ngi s dng in thoi thng minh nhiu
ngi s dng hn my tnh c nhn

99
 Hnh II: Cc quc gia c t l ngi s dng in thoi thng minh cao hn ngi s
dng my tnh c nhn (Thng 3 nm 2015)

Ngun: http://www.google.com.sg/publicdata/explore

Hnh III: Cc quc gia c gn 90% ngi trng thnh s dng in thoi thng minh
(Thng 3 nm 2015)

Ngun: http://www.google.com.sg/publicdata/explore

Cc quc gia nh Singapore, Hn Quc v cc Tiu Vng quc rp thng nht (UAE) l
gn im bng pht nht vi 90% ngi trng thnh s dng in thoi thng minh (Hnh
III).
100
X hi ang tin dn theo hng p dng nhng my mc nhanh hn thm ch cho php
ngi s dng thc hin cc nhim v phc tp trn ng i. Phn ln kh nng, s lng
cc thit b m mi ngi s dng s gia tng mnh m, khng ch l thc hin mt vi chc
nng mi m cn chuyn mn ha cc nhim v.

Tc ng tch cc
- Nhng ngi dn chu thit thi vng xa xi v km pht trin tham gia nhiu hn
vo nn kinh t (giai on cui last miles)
- Tip cn vi gio dc, chm sc sc khe, v cc dch v ca chnh ph
- S hin din
- Tip cn cc k nng, tng kh nng c vic lm, thay i cc loi cng vic
- M rng quy m th trng/ thng mi in t
- Nhiu thng tin
- S tham gia nhiu hn ca cng dn
- Dn ch ha/ thay i chnh tr
- Giai on cui: tng tnh minh bch v s tham gia so vi vic tng s thao tng v
tnh th phng cch ly (echo chambers)

Tc ng tiu cc
- Tng s li ko v tnh th phng cch ly
- Phn mnh chnh tr
- Nhng khu vn b bao quanh (ngha l mi trng hn ch, ch dnh cho ngi s
dng c xc nhn) khng cho php s tip cn hon ton ti mt s khu vc/
quc gia

Nhng tc ng cha bit, hay hai mt ca vn

- Lun sn sng 24/7
- Thiu s phn chia gia doanh nghip v c nhn
- Bt c ni no/ khp mi ni
- Tc ng mi trng ca sn xut

101
Bin i ang din ra
Nm 1985, siu my tnh Cray-2 l chic my nhanh nht th gii. Iphone 4, c pht hnh
vo thng 6 nm 2010, c sc mnh tng ng vi Cray-2; hin nay, Apple Watch
tng ng vi tc ca Iphone 4 ch vi 5 nm sau [87]. Gi bn l in thoi di
ng thng minh gim mnh xung di 50 la M, sc mnh x l tng vt v s tng
tc ti nhng th trng mi ni trong vic n nhn cng ngh, gn nh mi ngi s sm
c mt siu my tnh b trong ti ca mnh.
Ngun: http://pages.experts-exchange.com/processing-power-compared/

102
The tipping point: 90% of people having unlimited and free
(advertising-supported) storage
Bin i 7: Lu tr cho Tt c
By 2025: 91% of respondents expected this tipping point to have
occurred
im bng pht: 90% dn s c th lu tr min ph v khng gii hn (c km qung co)
Storage capabilities have evolved tremendously in the past years,
with an increasing number of companies offering it almost
for nm
n free 2025:
to stheir
91%users asc
ngi parthi
of k
thevng
service
imbenefit
bng pht. Users
ny are
xy ra
producing increasing amounts of content, without worrying
Kh nng lu tr pht trin rt nhiu trong nhng nm qua, vi s lng ngy cng tng
about
ca cc ever
cng having to delete
ty cung cp it to
gn nh make
min roomlng
ph dung for more.
lu trAcho
clear
ngi dng nh l mt
trend of commoditizing storage capacity exists. One reason
phn ca li ch dch v. Ngi dng c th lu ngy cng nhiu ni dung, for itm khng cn lo
is that
lng the phi
v vic storage price
xa bt (Figure
phn lu trIV) has
c cdropped exponentially
thm b nh (byxu hng chuyn
trng. R rng
a factor
dung lngofluapproximately
tr thnh hng ten, every
ha tiu fivecyears).
dng kh nng tn ti. L do cho vic gi lu tr
(Hnh IV) gim theo cp s nhn (bng h s khong mi nm, nm nm mt ln)
Figure IV: Hard Drive Cost per Gigabyte (1980-2009)
Hnh IV: Chi ph a cng trn mt Gigabyte (1980 2009)

Source: a history of storage costs, mkomo.com, 8 September 200988

An estimated
Ngun: 90%
Lch s chi of the
ph ca dungworlds
lng ludata
tr,has been created
mkomo.com, 8 thngin
9, the
2009 [88]
past two years, and the amount of information created by
businesses is doubling every 1.2 years.89 Storage has already
c tnh ca khong
become 90% dwith
commodity, liu companies cAmazon
trn th gii like to ra trong
Webvng 2 nm tr li y, v s
Services
lng thng tin v kinh doanh c 1,2 nm li tng ln gp i [89]. Lu tr tr thnh mt
and Dropbox leading this trend.
loi hng ho, vi cc cng ty nh Dch v Web ca Amazon v Dropbox ang dn u xu
hng ny.
135

103
Th gii ang hng ti hng ho ho (commoditization) hon ton vic lu tr d liu,
thng qua tip cn min ph v khng gii hn cho ngi dng. Kch bn doanh thu tt nht
ny dnh cho cc cng ty c tim nng qung co v h thng ghi nhn thng tin t xa.

Tc ng tch cc
- H thng php l
- Lch s uyn bc/hc thut
- Hiu qu trong hot ng kinh doanh
- M rng gii hn b nh c nhn

Tc ng tiu cc
- Kim sot s ring t

Nhng tc ng cha bit, hay hai mt ca vn

- B nh vnh cu (khng c g b xa)
- Tng cng sng to, chia s v tiu th ni dung

Bin i ang din ra

Nhiu cng ty cung cp dung lng min ph trn m my, t 2GB n 50 GB.

104
 Bin i 8: Mng li Vn vt Kt ni Internet

im bng pht: 1 nghn t thit b cm bin kt ni vi internet

n nm 2025: 89% ngi c hi d kin im bng pht ny xy ra

Vi sc mnh tnh ton lin tc tng v gi phn cng ngy cng gim (vn cn ph hp vi
nh lut Moore [90]), n rt kh thi v mt kinh t theo ngha c th kt ni bt c iu g
vi internet. Nhng thit b cm bin thng minh sn sng vi gi rt cnh tranh. Tt c
mi th s tr nn thng minh v kt ni vi internet, cho php truyn thng ln hn v cc
dch v d liu theo nh hng mi da trn vic nng cao kh nng phn tch.
Nghin cu gn y nhn ra cch cc thit b cm ng c th s dng theo di sc khe
v hnh vi ca ng vt [91]. N biu th cch cc thit b cm bin gia sc c th giao tip
vi nhau thng qua mng in thoi di ng, v c th cung cp d liu thi gian v iu
kin sng ca ng vt t bt c ni no.
Cc chuyn gia cho rng, trong tng lai, mi sn phm (vt cht) c th c kt ni vi c
s h tng thng tin lin lc khp ni v cm bin mi ni cho php con ngi nhn thc
y v mi trng ca h.

Tc ng tch cc
- Tng hiu qu s dng cc ngun lc
- Tng nng sut
- Ci thin cht lng cuc sng
- nh hng n mi trng
- Gim chi ph ca vic cung cp dch v
- Tng tnh minh bch xung quanh vic s dng v qun l ngun ti nguyn
- An ton (v d my bay, thc phm)
- Hiu qu (hu cn)
- Thm nhu cu v lu tr v bng thng
- Chuyn i trong th trng lao ng v k nng
- To ra cc doanh nghip mi

105
 - Thm ch phn cng, cc ng dng thi gian thc c tnh kh thi trong tiu chun
mng li thng tin lin lc
- Thit k cc sn phm l kt ni s
- B sung cc dch v k thut s trn cc sn phm
- Bn sao s (digital twin) cung cp d liu chnh xc vn hnh, gim st v d
on
- Bn sao s tr thnh thnh vin tch cc trong kinh doanh, thng tin v qu trnh x
hi
- Mi th s c kch hot nhn bit ton b mi trng, phn ng v hnh ng
c lp
- Th h ca b sung kin thc, v cc gi tr da trn mi lin kt nhng th thng
minh

Tc ng tiu cc
- S ring t
- Ct gim vic lm ca lao ng ko c k nng
- e da an ninh my tnh v bo mt (v d h thng in)
- Nhiu phc tp v mt kim sot

Nhng tc ng cha bit, hay hai mt ca vn

- Thay i m hnh kinh doanh: cho thu/s dng, khng c quyn s hu (thit b nh
mt loi dch v)
- M hnh kinh doanh b tc ng bi cc gi tr ca d liu
- Mi cng ty c kh nng l mt cng ty phn mm
- Kinh doanh mi: bn d liu
- Thay i khung nhn thc v s ring t
- C s h tng phn phi cng ngh thng tin quan trng
- T ng ha kin thc cng vic (v d phn tch, nh gi, chn on)

106
 - Hu qu ca mt Trn chu cng k thut s (v d tin tc hoc khng b k thut
s lm t lit c s h tng, dn n khng c thc phm, nhin liu v nng lng
cho tun)
- T l s dng cao hn (v d xe hi, my mc, cng c, thit b, c s h tng)

Bin i ang din ra

Chic xe Ford GT cha ng 10 triu dng m my tnh trong n.
Ngun: http://rewrite.ca.com/us/articles/security/iot-is-bringing-lots-ofcode-to-your-car-hackers-
too.html?intcmp=searchresultclick&resultnum=2

M hnh mi ca chic xe c a thch VWGolf c 54 n v x l my tnh; c n 700

im d liu c x l trong xe, to ra 6 gigabytes d liu trn mi chic xe.
Ngun: Cng ngh thng tin Cho php cc sn phm v dch v v Mng li Vn vt kt ni
Internet, Hi ngh bn trn v Tng quan Chin lc K thut s, Trung tm Chin lc k thut s
ti Trng Kinh Doanh Tuck ti Dartmouth 2014

Hn 50 t thit b d kin c kt ni internet vo nm 2020. Thm ch Gii ngn h, thin

h ca tri t, cng ch c cha khong 200 t ngi sao!

Eaton Corporation xy dng cc thit b cm bin vo mt ng ng c nh p sut cao

cm nhn c khi ng ng b c xt, ngn chn nhng tai nn nguy him v tch kim
chi ph cao trong thi gian my mc b hng, cc ng ng tr thnh thit b chnh.
Ngun: Mng li Vn vt kt ni Internet: Cc c hi v Thch thc ca vic lin kt, Hi ngh
bn trn v Tng quan Chin lc K thut s, Trung tm Chin lc k thut s ti Trng Kinh
Doanh Tuck ti Dartmouth, 2014

Trong nm ngoi, theo BMW, 8% s lng xe hi ton th gii, hay 84 triu xe c kt

ni vi internet theo cch no . S lng s tng ln ti 22%, hay 290 triu xe vo nm
2020.
Ngun: http://www.politico.eu/article/google-vs-german-car-engineerindustry-american-
competition/

107
Cc cng ty bo him nh Aetna ang suy ngh lm th no m cc cm bin trong mt tm
thm c th gip khi bn b t qu. Chng c th pht hin bt k thay i no ca dng
i v s c bc s n iu tr.
Ngun: Mng li Vn vt kt ni Internet: Cc c hi v Thch thc ca vic lin kt, Hi ngh
bn trn v Tng quan Chin lc K thut s, Trung tm Chin lc k thut s ti Trng Kinh
Doanh Tuck ti Dartmouth, 2014

108
 Bin i 9: Ngi nh Kt ni

im bng pht: Hn 50% lu lng internet c phn phi ti cc thit b v gia

dng ti nh (khng ch phc v cho gii tr hay truyn thng)

n nm 2025: 70% ngi c hi k vng im bng pht ny xy ra

Trong th k 20, hu ht nng lng trong mt cn nh c c nhn dng trc tip (nh
sng). Nhng theo thi gian, nng lng s dng cho vic ny v cc nhu cu khc b lu m
bi cc thit b khc phc tp hn nhiu, t my nng bnh v my ra bt n ti vi v iu
ha.
Mng internet cng ang i theo cch nh vy: hu ht lu lng internet ti nhng ngi nh
hin nay l cho c nhn s dng, lin lc hay gii tr. Hn na, nhng thay i nhanh
chng xut hin ti nhng thit b t ng ha trong nh, cho php con ngi kim sot nh
sng, bng ti, thng gi, iu ha khng kh, m thanh v hnh nh, h thng bo v v cc
gia dng. Nhng con robot c kt ni internet cng cung cp nhng h tr b sung cho
tt c cc loi dch v - nh, v d, dn dp ht bi nh ca.

Tc ng tch cc
- S dng hiu qu ngun ti nguyn (s dng nng lng thp hn v chi ph t hn)
- Tin nghi
- An ton/an ninh, v pht hin s xm phm
- Kim sot truy cp
- Chia s vic nh
- C kh nng sng c lp (tr/gi, nhng ngi khuyt tt)
- Tng cng qung co mc tiu v tc ng tng th trong kinh doanh
- Gim cc chi ph v h thng chm sc sc khe (t thi gian nm vin v bc s i
thm bnh nhn, theo di qu trnh s dng thuc)
- Gim st (thi gian thc) v ghi li hnh nh
- Cnh bo, bo ng v cc yu cu khn cp
- Kim sot nh t xa (v d ng van ga)

109
Tc ng tiu cc
- S ring t
- Gim st
- Tn cng h thng thng tin, ti phm v d b tn cng

Nhng tc ng cha bit, hay hai mt ca vn

- Tc ng n lc lng lao ng
- Thay i v tr cng vic ( bn ngoi nhiu hn nh)
- Bo mt, quyn s hu d liu

Bin i ang din ra

Mt v d v s pht trin trong vic s dng ti nh c trch dn bi Cnet.com:
Nest, nh sn xut b iu chnh nhit v my pht hin khi c kt ni Internet cng
b (nm 2014) chng trnh pht trin Lm vic vi Nest, trong cho php cc sn phm
t cc cng ty khc nhau u c th tng thch vi phn mm ca n. V d, s cng tc
vi Mercedes Benz ngha l t ca bn c th ni Nest tng nhit ti nh lm m
phng khi bn nCui cng cc trung tm ging Nest s gip cn nh cm nhn c
nhng g bn cn, iu chnh mi th mt cch t ng. Cui cng th cc thit b t chng
c th s bin mt khi ngi nh, ch s dng cm bin v cc thit b c kim sot t mt
trung tm duy nht.
Ngun: Rosie or Jarvis: The future of the smart home is still in the air, Richard Nieva, 14 thng
Mt, 2015, cnet.com, http://www.cnet.com/news/rosie-or-jarvisthe-future-of-the-smart-home-is-still-
in-the-air/

110
 Bin i 10: Cc Thnh ph Thng minh

im bng pht: Thnh ph u tin vi hn 50.000 c dn v khng c n giao thng

n nm 2025: 64% ngi c hi k vng im bng pht ny xy ra

Nhiu thnh ph s kt ni cc dch v, tin ch v ng x vi mng internet. Nhng thnh
ph thng minh ny s qun l nng lng, cc dng vt cht, hu cn v h thng giao
thng ca h. Nhng thnh ph tin b, nh Singapore v Barcelona, u trin khai nhiu
dch v da trn d liu mi, bao gm cc gii php bi xe thng minh, thu thp rc thng
minh v nh sng thng minh. Cc thnh ph thng minh lin tc m rng mng li v
cng ngh cm bin v lm vic trn nn tng d liu ca h, iu s l trng tm kt ni
cc d n cng ngh khc nhau v b sung cc dch v tng lai da trn phn tch cc d
liu v m hnh d on.

Tc ng tch cc
- Tng hiu qu trong s dng ti nguyn
- Tng nng sut
- Tng mt dn s
- Ci thin cht lng cuc sng
- nh hng n mi trng
- Tng cng tip cn cc ngun lc cho ngi dn ni chung
- Gim chi ph ca vic cung cp dch v
- Tng tnh minh bch xung quanh vic s dng v qun l ngun ti nguyn
- Gim ti phm
- Tng tnh di ng
- Phn cp, sn xut nng lng thn thin mi trng v vic tiu th
- Phi tp trung sn xut hng ho
- Tng kh nng phc hi (vi tc ng ca Bin i kh hu)
- Gim nhim (khng kh, ting n)
- Tng cng tip cn gio dc

111
 - Nhanh chng/tng tc tip cn th trng
- Nhiu vic lm hn
- Chnh ph in t thng minh hn

Tc ng tiu cc
- Gim st, quyn ring t
- Nguy c sp (ton b b xo) nu h thng nng lng hng
- D b tn cng mng

Nhng tc ng cha bit, hay hai mt ca vn

- Tc ng n vn ho thnh ph v cm nhn
- Thay i cc thi quen c nhn ca thnh ph

Bin i ang din ra

Theo mt bi bo c ng trn Future Internet:
Thnh ph Santander min bc Ty Ban Nha c 20.000 b cm bin kt ni cc to nh,
c s h tng, giao thng, mng li v cc tin ch. Thnh ph ny cung cp mt khng
gian vt l th nghim v xc nhn cc chc nng, chng hn nh s tng tc v cc
giao thc qun l, cng ngh trn thit b v cc dch v h tr nh pht hin, qun l danh
tnh v an ninh
Ngun: Cc thnh ph thng minh v Mng Internet trong tng lai: Hng ti khung hp tc cho
cc sng kin m, H. Schaffers, N. Komninos, M. Pallot, B. Trousse, M. Nilsson and A. Oliveira,
The Future Internet, J. Domingue et al. (eds), LNCS 6656, 2011, trang 431-446,
http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-642-20898-0_31

112
 Bin i 11: D liu Ln cho Nhng Quyt nh

im bng pht: Chnh ph u tin thay th vic iu tra dn s bng cc ngun d liu
ln

n nm 2025: 83% ngi c hi k vng im bng pht ny xy ra

Nhiu d liu cng ng tn ti lu hn bao gi ht. V, kh nng hiu v qun l d liu
ny ang c nng cao theo thi gian. Cc chnh ph bt u nhn ra cch thu thp d liu
trc y ca h khng cn cn thit, v c th chuyn sang cng ngh d liu ln t
ng ho cc chng trnh hin ti v cung cp nhng cch thc mi phc v ngi dn
v khch hng.
Tn dng d liu ln s cho php vic ra quyt nh tt hn v nhanh hn trong mt lot cc
ngnh cng nghip v cc ng dng. T ng ra quyt nh c th gim phin nhiu cho
ngi dn v cho php cc doanh nghip v chnh ph cung cp cc dch v thi gian thc
v h tr tt c mi th t cc tng tc khch hng ti h s thu v thanh ton t ng.
C rt nhiu ri ro v c hi khi tn dng d liu ln a ra quyt nh. Vic to dng
nim tin trong cc d liu v cc thut ton a ra quyt nh l rt quan trng. Mi quan
tm ca ngi dn v quyn ring t v thit lp trch nhim trong kinh doanh v cu trc
php l s yu cu iu chnh trong suy ngh, cng nh hng dn r vic s dng ngn
nga sao chp v nhng hu qu khng lng trc c. Tn dng d liu ln thay th
cc quy trnh m hin nay ang c thc hin bng tay c th lm cng vic li thi, nhng
cng c th to ra cc danh mc cng vic mi v cc c hi vic lm m cha h tn ti
trn th trng.

Tc ng tch cc
- Quyt nh nhanh hn v tt hn
- Thm thi gian ra quyt nh
- D liu m cho s i mi
- Cc cng vic cho lut s
- Gim phc tp v c hiu qu hn cho ngi dn
- Tch kim chi ph
- Nhng loi cng vic mi
Tc ng tiu cc
113
 - Mt vic
- Lin quan n quyn ring t
- Trch nhim gii trnh (Ai l ngi s hu thut ton?)
- Tin tng (lm th no tin tng d liu?)
- Cuc chin vi cc thut ton

Nhng tc ng cha bit, hay hai mt ca vn

- Sao chp
- Thay i c cu qun l, kinh doanh v php l

Bin i ang din ra

Khi lng d liu kinh doanh trn ton th gii, ti tt c cc cng ty, c 1,2 nm li tng
gp i.
Ngun: Ton b danh sch thng k s liu v D liu ln, Vincent Granville, 21 October 2014:
http://www.bigdatanews.com/profiles/blogs/acomprehensive-list-of-big-data-statistics

Nng dn t Iowa ti n ang s dng d liu ht ging, v tinh, cm bin, v trn cc

my ko a ra quyt nh tt hn v vic pht trin, khi no trng, lm th no theo
di ti ca thc phm t cc trang tri n bn n, v lm th no thch ng vi Bin i
kh hu.
Ngun: Whats the Big Deal with Data, BSA | Software Alliance, http://data.bsa.org/

thng bo tt hn ti khch hng v nhng a im nh hng khng hp v sinh, San

Francisco th im thnh cng hp tc vi Yelp ni d liu thanh tra y t nh hng ca
thnh ph vo cc trang nh gi nh hng. Nu bn m trang ca nh hng Tacos El Primo,
v d, n s cho thy ch s sc kho ca 98 trong s 100 ngi (bn di). Xp hng ca
Yelp rt c uy tn. Ngoi vic l c quan ngn lun cho thnh ph ni vi ngi dn v
cc nguy c thc phm, s hp tc ny c kh nng khin nhng ngi vi phm phi tun
th cc tiu chun sc kho.
Ngun: http://www.citylab.com/cityfixer/2015/04/3-cities-using-opendata-in-creative-ways-to-
solve-problems/391035/

Bin i 12: Nhng Chic Xe Khng Ngi li

114
im bng pht: Nhng chic xe khng ngi li chim t l tng ng 10% tng s
lng xe hi ti M.

n nm 2025: 79% ngi c hi k vng im bng pht ny s xy ra.

Cc th nghim v nhng chic xe khng ngi li t nhng cng ty ln nh Audi v
Google cng din ra, bn cnh mt s doanh nghip khc ang c nhng n lc
pht trin cc gii php mi. Nhng phng tin ny c tim nng tr nn hiu qu v an
ton hn so vi nhng chic xe c ngi li. Hn na, chng c th lm gim tc nghn v
kh thi, v o ln nhng m hnh hin ti ca lnh vc giao thng vn ti v hu cn.

Tc ng tch cc
- Ci thin s an ton
- Nhiu thi gian hn tp trung vo cng vic v/hoc s dng ni dung truyn
thng
- nh hng ti mi trng
- t cng thng v gin d khi li xe trn ng
- Ci thin kh nng di chuyn cho nhng ngi ln tui v ngi tn tt, trong s
nhng ngi khc
- ng dng cc phng tin in t.

Tc ng tiu cc
- Ct gim vic lm (ngi li xe taxi v xe ti, ngnh cng nghip xe hi)
- o ln cc m hnh kinh doanh bo him v cu h, h tr ven ng ("tr thm
tin t li xe")
- Gim doanh thu t hnh vi vi phm giao thng
- Gim s lng s hu xe hi
- Cu trc php l i cho vic li xe
- Vn ng hnh lang chng li s t ng ha (ngi dn khng c php li xe trn
ng cao tc)

115
 - Cc cuc tn cng an ninh mng

Bin i ang din ra

Vo thng 10 nm 2015, Tesla cp nht phn mm cho mu xe ca mnh, nhng chic
c bn ra trong nm ngoi ti th trng M. Mt trong nhng tnh nng n tng nht
ca phn mm ny chnh l kh nng t li, gip nhng chic xe in thng thng c th
t vn hnh trong iu kin giao thng thc t.
Ngun: http://www.wired.com/2015/10/tesla-self-driving-over-air-update-live

Google ln k hoch cng b mu xe t li vi cng chng vo nm 2020.

Ngun: Thomas Halleck, 14 January 2015, Google Inc. Says Self-Driving Car Will Be Ready By
2020, International Business Times:
http://www.ibtimes.com/google-inc-says-self-driving-car-will-be-ready-2020-1784150

Vo ma h nm 2015, hai hacker chng minh kh nng ca mnh khi tn cng vo mt

chic xe ang di chuyn, kim sot cc chc nng ca chic xe nh bng iu khin, tay li,
phanh xe..., tt c thng qua h thng gii tr trn xe.
Ngun: http://www.wired.com/2015/07/hackers-remotely-kill-jeep-highway/

Tiu bang u tin M (Nevada) thng qua mt o lut cho php xe t li hot ng trong
nm 2012.
Ngun: Alex Knapp, 22 June 2011, Nevada thng qua o lut cho php nhng chic xe khng
ngi li hot ng, Forbes:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2011/06/22/nevadapasses-law-authorizing-driverless-cars/

116
 Bin i 13: Tr tu Nhn to v Trnh Ra Quyt nh

im bng pht: Chic my s dng tr tu nhn to (AI) u tin gi vai tr hi ng qun

tr ca mt cng ty.

n nm 2025: 45% s ngi c hi d kin im ti hn ny s xy ra.

Ngoi iu khin nhng chic t, AI c th hc hi t nhng tnh hung trc cung
cp u vo v t ng ha cc quy trnh ra quyt nh tng lai phc tp, gip vic i n
kt lun c th nhanh hn v d dng hn da trn d liu v kinh nghim qu kh.

Tc ng tch cc
- Cc quyt nh c l da trn d liu; t thin v
- Loi b s "thi qu bt hp l"
- T chc li b my quan liu li thi
- Tng vic lm v i mi
- c lp v nng lng
- Nhng tin b trong khoa hc y t, loi tr bnh tt

Tc ng tiu cc
- Trch nhim (ai l ngi chu trch nhim, c quyn y thc, tnh php l)
- Mt vic lm
- Hacking/ti phm an ninh mng
- Ngha v php l v trch nhim gii trnh, quyn qun tr
- Tr nn khng th lnh hi c
- Bt bnh ng gia tng
- "Xung t vi thut ton"
- Mi e da hin sinh cho nhn loi

117
Bin i ang din ra
ConceptNet 4, mt ngn ng AI, va vt qua mt bi kim tra IQ tt hn nhiu so vi hu
ht nhng a tr bn tui khi m ba nm trc n hu nh khng th cnh tranh vi a
tr mt tui. Phin bn tip theo, ch cn hon thin, d kin s thc hin cp mt a
tr t nm n su tui.
Ngun: Bi Kim tra IQ ngn ng ca mt a tr 4 tui b vt qua bi mt H thng tr thng
minh nhn to:
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.386.6705&rep=rep1&type=pdf

Nu nh lut Moore14 tip tc pht trin vi cng tc nh n c trong 30 nm qua,

tc x l ca my tnh CPU s t ti tc x l tng ng b no ca con ngi vo
nm 2025. Deep Knowledge Ventures, mt qu u t mo him ti Hng Kng u t vo
khoa hc s sng, nghin cu ung th, cc bnh lin quan n tui gi v y hc ti to la
chn mt thut ton tr tu nhn to c gi l VITAL (Cng c u t Hiu lc Thc
y Khoa hc S sng) cho v tr ban gim c.
Ngun: Thut ton thay th ban gim c, BBC:
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-27426942

14
nh lut Moore c xy dng bi Gordon Moore - mt trong nhng sng lp vin ca tp on
sn xut chip my tnh Intel, theo nh lun Moore c 2 nm mt ln, tc x l ca my tnh s
c tng gp 2 ln. nh lut Moore ln u tin c cng b rng ri trn tp ch Electronics
Magazine s ra ngy 19 thng 4 nm 1965.
118
 Bin i 14: Tr Thng minh Nhn to AI v cc Cng vic Bn giy

Cc im ti hn: 30% cc cuc kim ton c thc hin bi AI

n nm 2025: 75% s ngi c hi d kin im ti hn ny s xy ra.

AI hot ng tt trong cc vic ph hp ha m hnh v t ng ho quy trnh, khin cng
ngh pht huy nhiu chc nng trong cc t chc ln. Mt hnh nh m ta c th hnh dung
c trong tng lai, ni m AI thay th mt lot cc chc nng do con ngi thc hin
ngy nay.
Mt nghin cu c thc hin ti trng Oxford Martin nhn vo nhy cm ca nhng
cng vic c tin hc ha nh AI v robot, v a ra mt s kt qu khin ta phi suy
ngh. M hnh ca h d on rng c n 47% s vic lm M trong nm 2010 c kh
nng cao s b bin mt v t ng ha trong 10-20 nm ti (Hnh V).
Hnh V: Phn b Ngh Nghip ti M* so vi xc sut Tin hc ho

119
* Phn b da trn cc cng vic khc nhau trong nm 2010.
Ngun: Frey, C.B. and M.A. Osborne, The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to
Computerisation?, 17 thng 9, 2013

Tc ng tch cc
- Ct gim chi ph
- Tng hiu qu
- M kha i mi v m ra cc c hi cho cc doanh nghip nh, doanh nghip khi
nghip (ro cn thp hn gia nhp ngnh, "phn mm nh mt dch v"15 cho tt c
mi th)

Tc ng tiu cc
- Mt vic lm
- Ngha v php l v trch nhim gii trnh
- Thay i php lut ti chnh, cng khai ti chnh, ri ro
- T ng ha cng vic (tham kho cc nghin cu Oxford Martin)

Bin i ang din ra

Nhng tin b trong t ng ha c FORTUNE bo co:

15
Software as a Service (SaaS) l phn mm hot ng trn web, c qun l bi nh cung cp v
cho php ngi s dng truy cp t xa qua my tnh, smartphone... m ngi s dng c th s phi
tr tin hng thng cho dch v phn mm ny. Nhng khon chi ph ny thng nh hn nhiu so
vi chi ph doanh nghip b ra pht trin t u, vn hnh v bo tr.
120
"Siu my tnh Watson ca IBM, c bit n vi s th hin xut sc ca mnh trong
chng trnh tr chi truyn hnh Jeopardy!, cng cho thy mt t l chn on v cng
chnh xc cn bnh ung th phi hn chn on do con ngi thc hin, 90% so vi 50%
mt s xt nghim. Nguyn nhn chnh l cc d liu. Vic tra cu cc d liu y t tng
ng c th mt cc bc s 160 gi mt tun, v vy cc bc s khng th xem xt ton b
nhng bng chng y khoa, kt qu h s bnh n mi hoc thm ch a ra cc th nghim
lm sng c th em li li th trong vic a ra mt chn on. Cc bc s phu thut cng
s dng cc h thng my t ng h tr trong nhng ca phu thut ung thc mc
xm ln thp."
Ngun: Erik Sherman, FORTUNE, 25 thng 2, 2015,
http://fortune.com/2015/02/25/5-jobs-that-robots-already-are-taking/

121
 Bin i 15: Ngi my v Dch v

im bng pht: Cc dc s robot u tin M.

n nm 2025: 86% s ngi c hi d kin im ti hn ny s xy ra

S dng ngi my ang bt u nh hng n nhiu cng vic, t lnh vc sn xut ti
nng nghip, t bn l cho n cc dch v. Theo Lin on quc t v Robot, hin nay trn
th gii c khong 1,1 triu robot ang lm vic, v my mcthc hin ti 80% cng vic
sn xut mt chic xe hi.[93] Robot ang hp l ho cc chui cung ng gip dn ti
nhng kt qu kinh doanh hiu qu v d d on hn.

Tc ng tch cc
- Chui cung ng v hu cn, loi ra nhng nhn t khng hiu qu
- Nhiu thi gian nhn ri
- Ci thin nhng kt qu sc khe (d liu ln v ngnh dc thu c trong nghin
cu v pht trin)
- Gi tin qua ATM nh knh u tin.
- Nhiu quyn truy cp vo cc ti liu
- Sn xut reshoring a sn xut tr v nc bn x (ngha l thay th ngi lao
ng nc ngoi vi robot)

Tc ng tiu cc
- Mt vic lm
- Ngha v php l v trch nhim gii trnh
- Cc chun mc x hi thng ngy, kt thc nhng dch v theo gi hnh chnh t 9h
sng n 5h chiu v trong vng 24 gi.
- Nguy c tn cng v an ninh mng.

Bin i ang din ra

Mt bi bo t tp ch The Fiscal Times trn trang web CNBC.com vit rng:

122
"Cng ty Rethink Robotics pht hnh Baxter [vo ma thu nm 2012] v nhn c s
hng ng ln t ngnh cng nghip sn xut. Cng ty bn ht cc sn phm ca mnh
n ht thng t ...
[Vo thng t] Rethink ra mt mt nn tng phn mm [cho php] Baxter thc hin cc
nhim v phc tp hn - v d, chn mt b phn, gi n pha trc ca mt trm kim
sot v nhn mt tn hiu t n vo ct 'tt' hoc 'khng tt'. Cng ty cng [pht hnh]
mt b sn phm pht trin phn mm ... m s cho php bn th ba - nh cc nh nghin
cu robot ti cc trng i hc - to ra nhng ng dng cho Baxter"
Ngun: The Robot Reality: Service Jobs Are Next to Go, Blaire Briody, 26 thng 3, 2013, The
Fiscal Times, http://www.cnbc.com/id/100592545

123
 Bin i 16: Bitcoin v u mi phn phi Blockchain

Cc im ti hn: 10% tng sn phm quc ni ton cu (GDP) c lu tr trn cng

ngh blockchain.

n nm 2025: 58% s ngi c hi d kin im ti hn ny s xy ra.

Bitcoin v cc loi tin t k thut s da trn tng ca mt c ch y thc phn phi
c gi l "blockchain", mt cch theo di cc giao dch ng tin cy trong phn phi.
Hin nay, tng gi tr ca Bitcoin trong blockchain l khong 20 t USD, tng ng
khong 0,025% GDP ton cu khong 80 nghn t USD.

Tc ng tch cc
- Nng cao kh nng tip cn ti chnh (financial inclusion) ti cc th trng mi ni,
v cc dch v ti chnh trn nn tng blockchain t ti mc quyt nh (critical
mass).
- Xa b cc t chc ti chnh, v cc dch v mi v gi tr trao i c to ra trc
tip trn blockchain.
- S pht trin t ca cc ti sn c th giao dch, v tt c cc hnh thi gi tr trao i
u c th c lu tr trn cc blockchain
- Theo di qun l ti sn tt hn ti cc th trng mi ni, v kh nng bin tt c
mi th tr thnh ti sn c th giao dch
- Cc u mi lin lc v nhng dch v php l ngy cng gn cht vo m lin kt vi
blockchain, c s dng nh kh c khng th ph v hoc c thit k lp
trnh ho cc hp ng thng minh.
- Tng cng tnh minh bch, v bn cht ca blockchain l mt s k ton ton cu lu
tr tt c cc giao dch.

Bin i ang din ra

Trang web Smartcontracts.com cung cp nhng hp ng c lp trnh ho cho php giao
dch thanh ton gia hai bn mt khi cc tiu chun nht nh no c p ng, m
khng cn n mt ngi trung gian. Cc hp ng ny c m bo trong blockchain di
dng "trng thi hp ng t thc hin", trong loi tr nguy c phi da vo ngi khc
thc hin theo thng qua cc cam kt ca h.
124
 Bin i 17: Nn Kinh t Chia s

im ti hn: Cc chuyn i/nhng cuc hnh trnh trn ton cu s dng dch v chia s
xe nhiu hn so vi dng xe ring.

n nm 2025: 67% s ngi c hi d kin im ti hn ny s xy ra.

Hin tng ny theo cch hiu thng thng l kh nng cng ngh kch hot cho php cc
thc th (c nhn hoc t chc) chia s vic s dng mt hng ho/ti sn vt cht, hoc chia
s/cung cp mt dch v, mt mc m trc y gn nh l khng hiu qu hoc thm
ch khng kh thi. Hng ho, dch v ny c th c chia s thng qua th trng trc
tuyn, ng dng di ng/dch v nh hng v tr hoc cc nn tng cng ngh khc. Nhng
iu ny gim chi ph giao dch v xung t trong h thng n mt mc m tt c cc
bn tham gia u nhn c li ch kinh t, v gip phn chia mc li nhun kh quan hn.
V d c nhiu ngi bit n v m hnh kinh t chia s l trong lnh vc giao thng
vn ti. Zipcar cung cp gii php cho php mi ngi chia s vic s dng mt chic xe
trong thi gian ngn hn v hp l hn so vi cc cng ty cho thu xe truyn thng.
RelayRides a ra mt nn tng gip xc nh v tr v mn phng tin c nhn ca mt ai
trong mt khong thi gian. Uber v Lyft cung cp nhng dch v ging nh taxi
nhng hiu qu hn t cc c nhn, nhng c tp hp li thng qua mt dch v, hot
ng nh dch v xc nh v tr v truy cp thng qua cc ng dng di ng. Ngoi ra,
chng lun sn sng mi khi c thng bo.
Cc nn kinh t chia s c s lng cc thnh phn, c im hoc s m t nh: cng ngh
kch hot, u tin cho vic tip cn thay v quyn s hu, ngang hng nhau (peer-to-peer),
chia s cc ti sn c nhn (so vi ti sn ca cng ty), d dng truy cp, tng s tng tc x
hi, tiu th hp tc v chia s phn hi mt cch ci m (dn n tng s tin tng). Tuy
vy, khng phi tt c u hin din trong mi giao dch ca "nn kinh t chia s".

Tc ng tch cc
- Tng kh nng tip cn cc cng c v ngun lc vt cht hu ch khc
- Tc ng tt hn ti mi trng (gim sn xut v tiu th t ti sn hn yu cu)
- Nhiu dch v cho c nhn c sn
- Tng kh nng da vo dng tin (t nhu cu tit kim v c kh nng chi tr cho vic
s dng ti sn)
- S dng ti sn hiu qu hn
125
 - t c hi cho vic lm dng lu di lng tin v nhng phn hi trc tip v cng khai
- Sng to nn kinh t th cp (li xe Uber vn chuyn hng ho hoc thc phm)

Tc ng tiu cc
- t kh nng phc hi sau khi gy ra mt vic lm (v tit kim t hn)
- Lao ng da trn hp ng/nhim v (so vi lao ng di hn thng n nh hn)
- Gim kh nng o lng nn kinh t c kh nng mu xm ny.16
- Nhiu c hi cho lm dng ngn hn nim tin
- Vn u t t c sn trong h thng

Tc ng khng r, hoc va tch cc v tiu cc

- Thay i ti sn v quyn s hu ti sn
- Nhiu m hnh thu bao
- Gim tit kim
- Thiu s r rng v ngha ca "s giu c" v "sung tc"
- t r rng v nhng g cu thnh mt "cng vic"
- Kh khn trong vic o lng nn kinh t c kh nng "mu xm" ny
- iu chnh h thng thu v cc quy nh chuyn t cc m hnh da trn quyn s
hu/bn hng sang nhng m hnh da trn quyn c s dng ti sn.

Bin i ang din ra

Mt quan im c th v quyn s hu ng sau s pht trin ny v c phn nh trong
cc cu hi di y.
- Liu cc nh bn l ln nht khng s hu mt ca hng duy nht? (Amazon)
- C phi cc nh cung cp dch v cho thu phng ng ln nht li khng s hu mt
khch sn not? (Airbnb)

Nn kinh t xm bao gm cc hot ng hp php m nhng ngi tham gia cc hot ng

16

khng tr thu hoc khng tun th cc quy nh. Phn bit vi nn kinh t khng chnh quy (hoc
nn kinh t "ngm" hoc "song hnh") thng c hiu theo ngha rng hn, bao gm cc hot
ng bt hp php chng hn nh hot ng mi dm v mua bn ma tu...
126
- Cc nh cung cp ln nht ngnh giao thng vn ti khng h s hu mt n xe hi
ng khng? (Uber)

127
 Bin i 18: Chnh ph v u mi phn phi (Blockchain)

im bng pht: Ln u tin chnh ph thu thu bng cng ngh blockchain.

n nm 2025: 73% s ngi c hi d kin im ti hn ny s xy ra.

Cc blockchain to ra c c hi v thch thc cho cc quc gia. Mt mt, n l khng c
kim sot v khng c gim st bi ngn hng trung ng, c ngha l t kim sot chnh
sch tin t. Mt khc, n to ra kh nng cho cc c ch thu mi c xy dng da vo
chnh blockchain (v d thu giao dch nh).

Nhng tc ng cha r, hay hai mt ca vn

- Ngn hng trung ng v chnh sch tin t
- Tham nhng
- Thu theo thi gian thc
- Vai tr ca chnh ph

Bin i ang din ra

Trong nm 2015, quc gia o u tin, BitNation, c to ra bng cch s dng blockchain
nh cng ngh nhn dng nn tng cho chng minh th ca ngi dn. ng thi, Estonia
tr thnh chnh ph thc u tin trin khai cng ngh blockchain.
Ngun: https://bitnation.co/; http://www.pymnts.com/news/2014/estoniannational-id-cards-embrace-
electronic-payment-capabilities/#.Vi9T564rJPM

128
 Bin i 19: In v Sn xut s dng cng ngh 3D

im bng pht: Sn xut ln u tin chic xe bng cng ngh in 3D.

n nm 2025: 84% s ngi c hi d kin im ti hn ny s xy ra.

Cng ngh in 3D, hoc sn xut p dn (additive manufacturing), l qu trnh to ra mt i
tng vt l bng cch in p cc lp t mt bn v k thut s hoc m hnh ba chiu. Hy
tng tng nh vic to ra mt bnh m, theo tng lp mt. Cng ngh in 3D c tim
nng to ra cc sn phm rt phc tp m khng cn cc thit b phc tp.[94] Cui cng th
nhiu loi vt liu khc nhau s c s dng trong my in 3D, chng hn nh nha, nhm,
thp khng g, gm hoc thm ch l cc hp kim cao cp, v my in s c th lm nhng
iu m c mt nh my cn hon thnh cng vic. Cng ngh ny c s dng trong
mt lot cc ng dng, t sn xut tua-bin gi cho n chi.
Theo thi gian, my in 3D s vt qua nhng tr ngi v tc , chi ph v kch thc, v tr
nn ph bin hn. Gartner pht trin biu "Chu k ca Cng ngh - Hype Cycle" (Hnh
VI) cho thy cc giai on
The Fourth
khc nhauIndustrial ngh in 3D v tc ng th trng ca chng,
ca cngRevolution
v nh du vic hu ht cc doanh nghip s s dng cng ngh ny khi bc vo chu k
"sn dc sng t" (slope of enlightenment).[95]
Figure
Hnh VI:VI:
ChuHype Cycle
k ca cng for
ngh in 3D
3D Printing

Source:
Ngun: Gartner (July 2014)
Gartner (Thng 7, 2014)

129

Positive impacts
Tc ng tch cc
- Tng tc pht trin sn phm
- Gim chu k t thit k ti sn xut
- Sn xut cc b phn phc tp mt cch d dng (m trc khng th hoc gp
kh khn thc hin)
- Tng nhu cu i vi cc nh thit k sn phm
- Cc c s gio dc s dng cng ngh in 3D tng kh nng hc tp v s hiu bit
- Dn ch ho sc mnh ca s sng to/sn xut (c hai u b gii hn bi cc thit
k)
- Phng thc sn xut i tr truyn thng ng ph vi cc thch thc bng cch tm
cch gim chi ph v quy m vn hnh ti thiu
- Tng trng trong "cc k hoch" m ngun m in mt lot cc i tng
- S ra i ca mt ngnh cng nghip mi cung cp vt t in n
- Tng cc c hi kinh doanh trong khng gian [96]
- Li ch mi trng t vic gim cc yu cu vn chuyn

Tc ng tiu cc
- Tng rc thi cn x l, v gnh nng hn v mi trng
- Sn xut cc b phn trong qu trnh to lp l khng ng hng, ngha l sc mnh
ca chng khng ging nhau tt c cc hng, iu ny c th hn ch cc chc
nng ca cc b phn.
- Ct gim vic lm trong mt ngnh cng nghip b gin on
- Tnh u vit ca s hu tr tu nh l mt ngun gi tr trong nng sut
- Nn n cp bn quyn
- Nhn hiu v cht lng sn phm

Nhng tc ng cha r, hay hai mt ca vn

- Bt k i mi no cng c kh nng b sao chp ngay lp tc.

130
Bin i ang din ra
Mt v d v in 3D sn xut gn y c ghi chp bi FORTUNE:
"ng c phn lc Leap ca General Electric khng ch l mt trong nhng sn phm bn
chy ca cng ty ny, GE ang chun b s dng mt vi phun nhin liu c sn xut hon
ton thng qua cng ngh p dn (additive manufaturing). Qu trnh ny, thng c gi
l in 3D, bao gm vic p chng cc lp vt liu (trong trng hp ny l hp kim kim
loi) theo cc k hoch k thut s chnh xc. GE hin ang hon tt th nghim trn cc
ng c Leap mi, nhng nhng li ch ca cc b phn sn xut bng cng ngh p dn
c chng minh ti cc m hnh khc. "

Ngun: GEs first 3D-printed parts takeflight, Andrew Zaleski, FORTUNE, 12 May 2015,
http://fortune.com/2015/05/12/ge-3d-printed-jet-engine-parts/

131
 Bin i 20: Cng ngh In 3D v Sc khe con ngi

im bng pht: Ca cy ghp l gan u tin c in bng cng ngh 3D.

n nm 2025: 76% s ngi c hi d kin im ti hn ny s xy ra.

n mt ngy, cc my in 3D c th to ra khng ch s vt, m cn l cc b phn c th
con ngi - mt qu trnh gi l cng ngh in sinh hc (bioprinting). Phn ln qu trnh
tng t nh i vi cc in cc vt, mt c quan c th ngi c in theo tng lp t
mt m hnh k thut s 3D [97]. Cc vt liu s dng in mt c quan c th ngi r
rng s khc vi nhng g c s dng in mt chic xe p, v th nghim c th c
thc hin vi cc loi vt liu s c kt qu, chng hn nh bt titan lm xng. Cng
ngh in 3D c tim nng ln phc v nhu cu thit k ty chnh; v, khng c g li ty
chnh nhiu hn mt c th con ngi.

Tc ng tch cc
- Gii quyt s thiu ht cc c quan hin tng (trung bnh 21 ngi cht mi ngy do
ch i cy ghp m khng th c din ra do b thiu) [98]
- In n cc b phn gi: thay th chn tay/b phn c th con ngi
- Cc bnh vin s dng cng ngh in cho mi bnh nhn yu cu phu thut (v d
nh np, phi, cy ghp, vt)
- Y hc c th ha: Cng ngh in 3D pht trin tc nhanh nht khi mi khch hng
cn mt phin bn khc bit nh ca mt phn c th (v d nh bc mo rng)
- Cc thnh phn dng in nhng trang thit b y t kh cung ng hay tn km, chng
hn nh my bin nng [99]
- In n, v d nh m cy nha khoa, my iu ho nhp tim v khung c nh cu trc
im gy xng ti bnh vin a phng thay v nhp khu, gip gim chi ph hot
ng
- Nhng thay i c bn trong kim nghim thuc, c th c thc hin trn i tng
ca con ngi thc do s sn c ca cc c quan c in hon ton
- In cc loi thc phm, t ci thin an ninh lng thc.

Tc ng tiu cc
- Khng kim sot c hoc khng iu chnh c vic sn xut ca cc b phn c
th, thit b y t v thc phm

132
 - Tng cht thi phi x l, v gnh nng hn na v mi trng
- Phn ln cc cuc tranh lun v o c xut pht t vic in n cc b phn v cc c
quan trong c th: Ai s kim sot kh nng sn xut chng? Ai s m bo cht
lng ca cc c quan sau khi in?
- Cc hnh ng khng lnh mnh cho sc khe: Nu tt c mi th c th c thay
th, th ti sao li phi sng mt cch lnh mnh?
- Tc ng vo nng nghip, t vic in n thc phm

Bin i ang din ra

Popular Science ghi chp vic thc hin cy ghp xng u tin nh cng ngh in 3D:
"[Nm 2014], cc bc s ti Bnh vin Peking University Third Hospital cy ghp thnh cng
phn t sng nh cng ngh 3D ln u tin trn [mt] bnh nhn tr tui thay th mt
t sng b ung th ti c ngi bnh. Cc t sng thay th c m phng t t xng
sng hin ti ca cu b, gip h kt hp d dng hn.

Ngun: Boy Given a 3-D Printed Spine Implant, Loren Grush, Popular Science, 26 August 2014,
http://www.popsci.com/article/science/boy-given-3-dprinted-spine-implant

133
The tipping point: 5% of consumer products printed in 3D
By 2025: 81% of respondents expected this tipping point to have
occurred
Bin i 21: Cng ngh in 3D v Cc Sn phm Tiu dng
Because 3D printing can be done by anyone with a 3D printer,
it creates opportunities for typical consumer products to be
im ti hn: 5% sn phm tiu dng c in bng cng ngh in 3D.
printed locally and on demand, instead of having to be bought at
shops. A 3D printer will eeventually be an offic or ev en a home
n nm 2025:
appliance. This s ngi reduces
81%further c hi dthe imof
cost
kin tiaccessing consumer
hn ny s xy ra.

goods andngh
Bi v cng increases
in 3D c the availability
th c thc hin of
bi 3D
bt cprinted
ai ch viobjects.
mt chic my in 3D, do
, n to ra c hi cho cc sn phm tiu dng c th c in cc b v theo yu cu, thay
Current usage areas for 3D printing (Figure VII) indicate several
v phi c mua ti cc ca hng. Mt my in 3D cui cng s tr thnh mt thit b vn
sectors
phng hayrelated
thm chto developing
l mt thit b ti and producing
nh. iu consumer
ny tip tc products
gim chi ph tip cn hng tiu
(proof of tng
dng v lm concept, prototype
s sn c ca cc i and
tngproduction).
in 3D. Cc khu vc s dng hin ti cho cng
ngh in 3D (Hnh VII) ch ra mt s lnh vc lin quan n pht trin v sn xut cc sn
Figure
phm tiu VII: Usechng
dng (bng of 3D ca Printing in Various
khi nim, nguyn Areas
mu v sn xut).(% of
respondents*)
Hnh VII: S dng 3D In n ti khu vc khc nhau (% s ngi c hi *)

* Percentages are of respondents from the Sculpteo survey.

* T l phn trm l ngi tr li t cc cuc kho st Sculpteo.
Source: Sculpteo, The State of 3D Printing (survey of 1,000 people), as published
in Hedstrom,
Ngun: J., Hin
Sculpteo, Thetrng
Statecng
of 3D Printing,
ngh vn iu
Quora
in 3D (phng 100 tra quy m 1000 ngi), cng b

trong Hedstrom, J., The State of 3D Printing..., Quora [100]

Tc ng tch cc
- Sn phm v sn xut c c nhn ho hn.
- To ra sn phm th trng ngch, v kim tin nh bn chng
- Tng trng ca in 3D s nhanh nht l nhng th trng mi khch hng c nhu
cu khc bit nhtrong mt sn phm - v d mi mt bn chn li cn mt chic giy
166
c kch thc ph hp ring.
134
 - Gim chi ph hu cn, vi kh nng tit kim nng lng ln [101]
- ng gp vo nhiu hot ng ti a phng; t to ra nhng sn phm ca chnh
mnh m c hng li ch vic loi b cc chi ph hu cn (nn kinh t tun hon
circular economy)

Tc ng tiu cc

- Cc chui cung ng v hu cn ti cc khu vc v trn ton cu: nhu cu thp hn dn

n mt vic lm.
- Kim sot sng: m ra c hi cho cc i tng lm dng in n mc cao, chng
hn nh in sng.
- Tng lng cht thi cn phi x l, v gnh nng hn v mi trng
- S gin on ch yu trong kim sot sn xut, cc quy nh ca ngi tiu dng, cc
ro cn thng mi, bng sng ch, cc loi thu v cc hn ch khc ca Chnh ph;
v u tranh thch ng.

Bin i ang din ra

Gn 133.000 my in 3D c bn trn khp th gii trong nm 2014, tng 68% so vi
nm 2013. Phn ln cc my in bn vi gi di 10.000 USD, do p dng ph hp
tinhng phng th nghim v trng hc choti cc doanh nghip sn xut nh. Kt qu l,
quy m ca cc ngnh cng nghip vt liu v dch v in 3D tng trng mnh, ln mc 3,3
t USD[33].

135
 Bin i 22: Con ngi c Thit k [103]

im bng pht: Nhng con ngi u tin c sinh ra c b gen c chnh samt cch
trc tip v ch tm.
K t u th k ny, chi ph cho vic xc nh trnh t ton b h gen ca con ngi
gim gn su ln. Vo nm 2003, d n bn gen ngi dnh 2,7 t USD lp b gen
u tin. n nm 2009, chi ph cho mi b gen gim xung cn 100.000 USD trong khi
ngy nay, cc nh nghin cu ch phi tr 1.000 USD xc nh trnh t h gen ca con
ngi ti mt phng th nghim chuyn v cc vn nh vy. Mt xu hng tng t cng
xy ra gn y trong vic chnh sa b gen ngi vi s pht trin ca phng php
CRISPR/Cas9. Phng php ny hin ang c p dng rng ri do hiu qu v hiu sut
cao hn cng nh chi ph thp hn so vi cc cch tip cn trc y.
V th cuc cch mng thc s l khng phi l ti nng bt ng ca cc nh khoa hc tn
tmtrong chnh sa cc b gen ca h ng thc vt, ng hn l s d dng m cc cng
ngh sp xp v chnh sa b gen mi mang li, gip tng s lng nhng nh nghin
cu c kh nng tin hnh cc th nghim.

Tc ng tch cc
- Sn lng nng nghip cao hn nh vo cc ht ging v phng php chm scgip
cy trngkhe mnh, hiu qu v nng sut hn.
- Phng php iu tr y t hiu qu hn thng qua m hnh y hc c th ha.17
- Chn on y t nhanh hn, chnh xc hn, t lan man.
- Nng cao s hiu bit v tc ng con ngi i vi t nhin
- Gim t l mc cc bnh di truyn v cc bnh lin quan

Tc ng tiu cc
- Ri ro tng tc gia cc ng vt/thc vt,sc khe con ngi/mi trng sau khi
chnh sa b gen.

17
Y hc c th ha (personalized medicine) l m hnh y t xut phng php chm sc sc khe
ty bin, vi cc quyt nh y t (chn on, d phng, chm sc, iu tr) v cc sn phm y t
(thuc, thc phm chc nng) c thit k ring cho tng bnh nhn da trn thng tin di truyn
ca chnh h v c th cn bnh.
136
 - Lm trm trng hn bt bnh ng do mc chi ph cao trong tip cn cc liu php
cha tr.
- Phn ng tiu cc t x hi v cng ngh chnh sa b gen
- Cc chnh ph hoc cng ty lm dng cc d liu di truyn
- Bt ng quc t v vn o c ca vic ng dng cng ngh chnh sa b gen.

Nhng tc ng cha r, hay hai mt ca vn

- Tng tui th
- Tnh hung tin thoi lng nan v o c lin quan n tnh nhn vn
- Nhng Bin i v vn ha

Bin i ang din ra

"Vo thng Ba nm 2015, cc nh khoa hc hng u xut bn mt bi bo trn tp ch
Nature, ku gi mt lnh cm vic chnh sa phi thai ngi, trong nu r "mi quan ngi
nghim trng v ngha o c v tnh an ton ca cc nghin cu ny". Ch mt thng sau
, vo thng T nm 2015, "nhng nh nghin cu dn u bi Junjiu Huang t i hc
Yat sen Qung Chu cng b bi bo khoa hc u tin trn th gii v Bin i ADN
trn phi thai ngi."
Ngun: http://www.nature.com/news/don-t-edit-the-human-germ-line-1.17111;
http://qz.com/389494/chinese-researchers-are-the-irst-to-genetically-modifya-human-embryo-and-
many-scientists-think-theyve-gone-too-far
http://qz.com/389494/chinese-researchers-are-the-irst-to-genetically-modify-a-humanembryo-and-
many-scientists-think-theyve-gone-too-far/

137
 Bin i 23: Cng ngh thn kinh Neurotechnologies [104]

im bng pht:B nh hon ton nhn to u tin c cy trong no ngi.

S hiu bit tt hn v cc chc nng hot ng ca b no con ngi mang li li ch
khng chring mt lnh vc ca i sng c nhn v cng vic ca chng ta, trn c mc
c nhn v tp th. iu ny c nhn mnh bi thc t rng - trong vi nm qua - hai trong
s nhng chng trnh nghin cu c ti tr nhiu nht trn th gii l trong lnh vc khoa
hc v b no ngi: D n B no con ngi- The Human Brain Project (mt d n tr gi
1 t Euro ko di hn 10 nm c ti tr bi y ban chu u) v Sng kin Nghin cu
No b thng qua cc Cng ngh thn kinh tin tin (Brain Research Through Advancing
Innovative Neurotechnologies - BRAIN) ca Tng thng Obama. Mc d cc chng trnh
ny ch yu tp trung vo vic nghin cu khoa hc v y t, chng ta cng ang chng kin
s tng trng nhanh chng (v nh hng) ca cng ngh thn kinh kha cnh phi y t
trong cuc sng ca chng ta. Cng ngh thn kinh bao gm vic gim st hot ng ca b
no v xem xt cch m b no thay i v/hoc giao tip vi th gii nh th no.
V d, trong nm 2015, tnh di ng v kh nng chi tr ca nhng chic tai nghe sng no
neuro-headset (m chi ph thm ch cn t hn so vi mt thit b chi in t cm tay)
cung cp nhng kh nng cha tng c - nh du iu c th s khng ch l mt cuc cch
mng v thn kinh, m cn l mt cuc cch mng x hi.

Tc ng tch cc
- Ngi tn tt by gi c th iu khin cc chi gi hoc nhng chic xe ln ch "vi
suy ngh ca h".
- Thng tin phn hi thn kinh, kh nng gim st hot ng ca no b trong thi gian
thc, cung cp v s kh nng gip chng li cc cn nghin, iu chnh hnh vi
n ung, v ci thin nhng thnh tch khc nhau, t th thao n cc lp hc.
- C kh nng thu thp, x l, lu tr v so snh s lng ln d liu lin quan n
hot ng ca b no, cho php chng ta nng cao hiu qu chn on v phng
php iu tr cc chng ri lon no v nhng vn sc khe lin quan n tm
thn.
- To n s c th x l theo ty tng trng hp v gii quyt cc vn lin quan
n trch nhim trong cc v n hnh s theo cch thc khc bit hn l theo vn
chung nh hin nay.

138
 - Th h tip theo ca nhng chic my tnh, m thit k c ci tin nh khoa hc
no b, c th suy lun, d on v phn ng ging nh v no con ngi (mt vng
ca no c bit n nh l v tr ca tr thng minh).

Tc ng tiu cc
- Suy st da trn no b: Nhng c nhn khng n gin ch l b no ca h, nh vy
c nguy c rng cc quyt nh c thc hin theo cch c lp v bi cnh, ch da
trn d liu no b trong cc lnh vc khc nhau, t php lut n nhn s, hnh vi
ca ngi tiu dng hay gio dc.[106]
- Ni s v nhng suy ngh/c m/ham mun s b gii m v s khng cn tn ti s
ring t.
- Lo lng v kh nng sng to hoc k nng c bit ca con ngi gim dn nhng
chc chn s bin mt, m cho n nay ch yu mang li bi vic qu cao nhng g
khoa hc no b c th lm.
- Lm m nhng ranh gii gia con ngi v my mc.

Nhng tc ng cha r, hay hai mt ca vn

- Bin i vn ha
- Tch ri ra khi giao tip
- Ci thin hiu sut
- M rng kh nng nhn thc ca con ngi s kch hot nhng hnh vi mi

Bin i ang din ra

- Thut ton c tn hiu v no th hin kh nng gii m nhng chui k t v s
CAPTCHA hin i (CAPTCHA c s dng rng ri kim tra nhm phn bit
con ngi v my mc).18
- Ngnh cng nghip t pht trin nhng h thng gim st v nhn thc c th t
dng xe khi ti x ng lc iu khin xe.

18
CAPTCHA (Completely Automated Public Turing test to tell Computers and Humans Apart) l
Bi kim tra Turing Hon ton T ng nhm phn bit My vi tnh v Con ngi. Bi kim tra ny
c xy dng da trn tiu chun do nh ton hc Alan Turing (Anh) a ra vo nm 1950: Mt
chic my ch c th coi l thc s "thng minh" nu chng ta khng th phn bit c cch hnh
x ca c my ny v cch hnh x ca con ngi.
139
 - Mt chng trnh my tnh thng minh Trung Quc t im cao hn so vi
nhiu ngi trng thnh trong mt bi kim tra IQ.
- Siu my tnh Watson ca IBM, sau khi chn lc thng qua hng triu h s v c s
d liu y t, bt u tr gip bc s la chn phng php iu tr cho nhng bnh
nhn c nhng nhu cu phc tp.
- Cm bin hnh nh hnh thi thn kinh (Neuromorphic), ly cm hng t cch mt v
no giao tip, s c cc tc ng khc nhau t vic s dng pin cho ti robot.
- Cng ngh cy chip no (cng ngh thn kinh gi - Neuroprosthetics) ang cho php
ngi tn tt nhng b phn v khung xng nhn to. Mt s ngi m s c th
nhn thy (mt ln na).
- Chng trnh Khi phc Hot ng ca B nh (RAM) ca DARPA l im bo cho
vic phc hi v tng cng tr nh.
- Cc nh thn kinh hc ti MIT chng minh rng triu chng trm cm chut c
th c cha khi bng cch kch hot nhng k c hnh phc.
Ngun:
Doraiswamy M. (2015). 5 cng ngh no b s nh hnh tng lai ca chng ta. Chng trnh Ngh
s Din n Kinh t Th gii, 9 thng 8.
https://agenda.weforum.org/2015/08/5-brain-technologies-future/
Fernandez A (2015). 10 neurotechnologies about to transform brain enhancement and brain health.
SharpBrains, USA, 10 thng 11.
http://sharpbrains.com/blog/2015/11/10/10-neurotechnologies-about-to-transform-brain-
enhancement-and-brain-health/

140
 Notes

[1] Cc thut ng "ph v" v "i mi t ph" c tho lun nhiu trong gii kinh
doanh v chin lc qun l, gn y nht l trong bi vit i mi t ph l g? ca
Clayton M. Christensen, Michael E. Raynor, v Rory McDonald, ng trn tp ch Harvard
Business Review, thng 12 nm 2015. Trong khi nh gi cao nhng mi quan tm ca Gio
s Christensen v cc ng nghip ca ng v nhng nh ngha trn, ti s dng nhng
ngha rng ln hn trong cun sch ny.

[2] Erik Brynjolfsson v Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and
Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies, W.W. Norton & Company, 2014.

[3] James Manyika v Michael Chui, Digital Era Brings Hyperscale Challenges, The
Financial Times, 13 August 2014.

[4] Nh thit k v kin trc s Neri Oxman a ra mt v d th v v nhng g ti va m

t. Phng nghin cu ca b y tp trung vo im giao nhau ca thit k vn hnh my tnh,
sn xut p dn, k thut vt liu v sinh hc tng hp.
https://www.ted.com/talks/neri_oxman_design_at_the_intersection_of_technology_and_biol
ogy

[5] Carl Benedikt Frey v Michael Osborne, vi s tham gia ca nhm Nghin cu Citi,
Cng ngh trong cng vic Tng lai ca i mi v vic lm, Oxford Martin School
and Citi, February 2015.
https://ir.citi.com/jowGiIw%2FoLrkDA%2BldI1U%2FYUEpWP9ifowg%2F4HmeO9kYfZ-
iN3SeZwWEvPez7gYEZXmxsFM7eq1gc0%3D

[6] David Isaiah, Siu vt liu Graphene trong sn xut t: ng h im,

Automotive World, 26 thng 8, 2015.
http://www.automotiveworld.com/analysis/automotive-grade-graphene-clock-ticking/

[7] Sarah Laskow, Vt liu kho nht v t nht trn Tri t, The Atlantic,

141
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/09/the-strongest-most-expensive-
material-on-earth/380601/

[8] Mt s cng ngh c lit k chi tit hn trong: Bernard Meyerson, Top 10 cng ngh
ca nm 2015, Meta-Council on Emerging Technologies, World Economic Forum, 4 thng
3, 2015.
https://agenda.weforum.org/2015/03/top-10-emerging-technologies-of-2015-2/

[9] Tom Goodwin, Trong k nguyn loi b s trung gian, trn chin chnh l giao tip vi
ngi tiu dng, TechCrunch, thng 3, 2015.
http://techcrunch.com/2015/03/03/in-the-age-of-disintermediation-the-battle-is-all-for-the-
customer-interface/

[10] K.A. Wetterstrand, Chi ph gii m trnh t b gen DNA: D liu t Chng trnh Bn
Gen (GSP) ca Vin Quc gia v Nghin cu gene ngi (NHGRI), 2 thng 10, 2015.
http://www.genome.gov/sequencingcosts/

[11] Ariana Eunjung Cha, Ni s tip theo ca siu my tnh Watson? i ph vi Ung
th, The Washington Post, 27 thng 6, 2015.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2015/06/27/watsons-next-feat-taking-on-cancer/

[12] Jacob G. Foster, Andrey Rzhetsky v James A. Evans, S truyn thng v i mi

trong nhng chin lc nghin cu ca nhng nh khoa hc, American Sociological
Review, October 2015 80: 875-908
http://www.knowledgelab.org/docs/1302.6906.pdf

[13] Mike Ramsay v Douglas Cacmillan, Carnegie Mellon long chong sau khi Uber
quyn r nhng nh nghin cu, Wall Street Journal, 31 thng 5, 2015
http://www.wsj.com/articles/is-uber-a-friend-or-foe-of-carnegie-mellon-in-robotics-
1433084582

142
[14] Din n Kinh t Th gii, Bin i su sc im Bng pht Cng ngh v nh
hng x hi, Bo co iu tra, Hi ng Chng trnh ngh s ton cu v Tng lai ca
Phn mm v X hi, thng 9, 2015.

[15] bit thm chi tit v phng php iu tra, xin vui lng tham kho trang 4 v 39 ca
bo co c tham chiu trong cc ghi ch trc.

[16] Vn phng Thng k Quc gia Vng quc Anh, Sng qua c tui 100, 11 thng
12, 2013,
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lifetables/historic-and-projected-data-from-the-period-and-
cohort-life-tables/2012-based/info-surviving-to-age-100.html

[17] Hi ng Hi ngh, Bo co hiu sut 2015, 2015. Theo s liu c bin son bi Hi
ng Hi ngh, tng trng trong nng sut lao ng ton cu giai on 1996-2006 trung
bnh mc 2,6%, so vi 2,1% cho c nm 2013 v 2014
https://www.conference-board.org/retrievefile.cfm?filename=The-Conference-Board-2015-
Productivity-Brief.pdf&type=subsite

[18] B Lao ng Hoa K, "Nng sut thay i trong lnh vc kinh doanh phi nng nghip,
1947-2014", Cc Thng k Lao ng
http://www.bls.gov/lpc/prodybar.htm

[19] B Lao ng Hoa K, "Xu hng nng sut a nhn t s b nm 2014, Cc Thng k
Lao ng, 23 thng 6, 2015
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod3.nr0.htm

[20] OECD, Tng lai ca nng sut lao ng, thng 7, 2015.
http://www.oecd.org/eco/growth/The-future-of-productivity-policy-note-July-2015.pdf
Mt cuc tho lun ngn v gim tc trong nng sut ca Hoa K, xem John Fernald v Bing
Wang, S ni ln v sp gn y trong Tng trng Nng sut, Ngn hng D tr Lin
bang San Francisco, 9 thng 2 2015.

143
http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-
letter/2015/february/economic-growth-information-technology-factor-productivity/

[21] Nh kinh t hc Brad DeLong cp n im ny trong: J. Bradford DeLong,

Making Do With More, Project Syndicate, 26 thng 2, 2015.
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/abundance-without-living-standards-growth-
by-j--bradford-delong-2015-02

[22] John Maynard Keynes, Nhng trin vng kinh t cho nhng a tr ca chng ta
trong nhng bi lun ti Persuasion, Harcourt Brace, 1931.

[23] Carl Benedikt Frey v Michael Osborne, Tng lai ca vic lm: Nhng cng vic d
b nh hng bi tin hc ha nh th no?, Oxford Martin School, Chng trnh v nhng
nh hng ca cng ngh trong tng lai, i hc Oxford, 17 thng 9, 2013.
http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf

[24] Shelley Podolny, Nu mt thut ton vit iu ny, Lm sao bn bit?, The New
York Times, 7 thng 3, 2015.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/08/opinion/sunday/if-an-algorithm-wrote-this-how-would-
you-even-know.html?_r=0

[25] Martin Ford, Rise of the Robots, Basic Books, 2015.

[26] Daniel Pink, Free Agent Nation The Future of Working for Yourself, Grand
Central Publishing, 2001.

[27] Trch dn trong: Farhad Manjoo, Ubers business model could change your work, The
New York Times, 28 thng 1, 2015.

[28] Trch dn trong: Sarah OConnor, The human cloud: A new world of work,

144
The Financial Times, 8 thng 10, 2015.

[29] Lynda Gratton, The Shift: The Future of Work is Already Here, Collins, 2011.

[30] R. Buckminster Fuller v E.J. Applewhite. Synergetics: Explorations in the

Geometry of Thinking, Macmillan, 1975.

[31] Eric Knight, The Art of Corporate Endurance, Harvard Business Review, 2 thng 4,
2014
https://hbr.org/2014/04/the-art-of-corporate-endurance

[32] VentureBeat, WhatsApp gi y c 700 triu ngi s dng, gi 30 t tin nhn mi

ngy, 6 thng 1, 2015
http://venturebeat.com/2015/01/06/whatsapp-now-has-700m-users-sending-30b-messages-
per-day/

[33] Nhng phn tch ca Mitek v Zogby, Millennial Study 2014, thng 9, 2014
https://www.miteksystems.com/sites/default/files/Documents/zogby_final_embargo_14_9_2
5.pdf

[34] Gillian Wong, Alibaba ghi nhn doanh s bn hng k lc ngy c thn mc cho nn
kinh t Trung Quc ang i xung, The Wall Street Journal, 11 thng 11, 2015,
http://www.wsj.com/articles/alibaba-smashes-singles-day-sales-record-1447234536

[35] Nn kinh t di ng: Chu Phi cn Sahara 2014, Hip hi GSM, 2014.
http://www.gsmamobileeconomyafrica.com/GSMA_ME_SubSaharanAfrica_Web_Singles.p
df

[36] Tencent, Cng b kt qu qu ba v chn thng u nm, 30 thng 9 2015

http://www.tencent.com/en-us/content/ir/an/2015/attachments/20151110.pdf

145
[37] MIT, S thng trm ca gi linh hot, innovation@work Blog, MIT Sloan Executive
Education, 31 thng 10, 2014.
http://executive.mit.edu/blog/the-ups-and-downs-of-dynamic-pricing#.VG4yA_nF-bU

[38] Giles Turner, Ch s an ton thng tin mng Cybersecurity Index vt qua S&P500
120%. y l l do, trong cc Biu , Money Beat, The Wall Street Journal, 9 thng 9,
2015.
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/09/09/cybersecurity-index-beats-sp-500-by-120-heres-
why-in-charts/

[39] IBM, nh ngha li cc bin gii: Nhng hiu bit t Global C-Suite, thng 11 2015.
http://www-935.ibm.com/services/c-suite/study/

[40] Sng kin pht bn vng in t ton cu (Global e-Sustainability Initiative - GeSI) v
Tp on t vn Boston, Inc, GeSI SMARTer 2020: Vai tr ca cng ngh thng tin trong
nh hng mt tng lai bn vng, thng 12, 2012.
http://gesi.org/SMARTer2020

[41] Moiss Nam, S kt thc ca Quyn lc: T cc Phng hp n Chin trng v t

Nh th ti Quc gia, Ti sao vic ch huy khng phi l iu n thng lm - The End of
Power: From Boardrooms to Battleields and Churches to States, Why Being in Charge Isnt
What It Used to Be, Basic Books, 2013. Cun sch cho rng s chm dt quyn lc l do ba
cuc cch mng: cch mng "ca s nhiu hn" (the more revolution), cuc cch mng di
chuyn (the mobility revolution), v cuc cch mng tm l (the mentality revolution). Cn
phi cn thn trong vic khng xc nh vai tr ca cng ngh thng tin nh nhn t u th
nhng chc chn thi i k thut s v s truyn b cc cng ngh mi l cn nguyn cho
cc cuc cch mng "ca s nhiu hn", cuc cch mng di chuyn v cuc cch mng tm
l.

146
[42] Lun im ny c to ra v pht trin trong: Hi chng Vng quc Trung tm
Hi chng o Galapagos19: Bc ng cng ca tiu chun cng ngh Trung Quc, Qu
Cng ngh thng tin v i mi (ITIF), 15 thng 12, 2014.
http://www.itif.org/publications/2014/12/15/middle-kingdom-galapagos-island-syndrome-
cul-de-sac-chinese-technology

[43] Ch s i mi sng to IUS 2015 (Innovation Union Scoreboard), y ban Chu u,

2015.
http://ec.europa.eu/growth/industry/innovation/facts-figures/scoreboards/files/ius-
2015_en.pdf
Khung o lng s dng trong Ch s i mi sng to IUS c phn bit gia ba loi ch
tiu chnh v tm nhn t i mi, tng cng l 25 ch s khc nhau. Chng ghi nhn cc tc
nhn chnh ca hiu sut i mi bn ngoi cho cng ty v bao gm ba kha cnh i mi:
ngun nhn lc; h thng nghin cu m, xut sc v thu ht; ti chnh v h tr. Cc hot
ng cng ty nm bt c nhng n lc i mi cp doanh nghip, c nhm li
trong ba chiu i mi: u t cng ty, lin kt v kh nng lm ch doanh nghip, v cc ti
sn tr tu. Kt qu u ra bao gm nhng tc ng ca cc hot ng i mi ca cc cng
ty ln hai chiu i mi: sng to v hiu qu kinh t.

[44] Din n Kinh t Th gii, i mi hp tc Chuyn i Kinh doanh, nh hng

Tng trng, thng 8, 2015.
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Collaborative_Innovation_ report_2015.pdf

[45] Din n Kinh t Th gii, Global Information Technology Report 2015: ICTs for
Inclusive Growth, Soumitra Dutta, Thierry Geiger and Bruno Lanvin, eds., 2015.

[46] Din n Kinh t Th gii, Pht trin theo hng D liu: Con ng cho s tin b,
thng 1, 2015
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEFUSA_DataDrivenDevelopment_ Report2015.pdf

19
Mt thut ng m t hin tng ca mt sn phm hay mt x hi pht trin trong s c lp t
ton cu ha.
147
[47] Tom Saunders v Peter Baeck, Cn nhc li nhng thnh ph thng minh t c s,
Nesta, thng 6, 2015.
https://www.nesta.org.uk/sites/default/files/rethinking_smart_cities_from_the_ground_up_2
015.pdf

[48] Carolina Moreno, Medellin, Colombia l Thnh ph i mi ca Nm trong cuc cnh

tranh ton cu t chc bi WSJ v Citi, Huffington Post, 2 thng 3, 2013
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/02/medellin-named-innovative-city-of-the-
year_n_2794425.html

[49] Din n Kinh t Th gii, Top 10 i mi th, Chng trnh Ngh s Ton cu v
Tng lai ca cc Thnh ph, Din n Kinh t Th gii, thng 10, 2015.
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/Top_10_Emerging_Urban_Innovations_report_2010_20.10.
pdf

[50] Alex Leveringhaus v Gilles Giacca, Trn chin Robot Quy nh v nhng V kh
Robot, The Oxford Institute for Ethics, Law and Armed Conflict, The Oxford Martin
Programme on Human Rights for Future Generations, and The Oxford Martin School, 2014.
http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/briefings/Robo-Wars.pdf

[51] James Giordano trch dn trong Tom Requarth, y l b no ca bn. Cn y l v

kh b no ca bn, Foreign Policy, 14 thng 9, 2015.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/14/this-is-your-brain-this-is-your-brain-as-a-weapon-
darpa-dual-use-neuroscience/

[52] Manuel Castells, nh hng ca Internet i vi x hi: Gc nhn Ton cu, MIT
Technology Review, 8 thng 9, 2014.
http://www.technologyreview.com/view/530566/the-impact-of-the-internet-on-society-a-
global-perspective/

[53] Credit Suisse, Bo co Thnh vng Ton cu 2015, thng 10, 2015.

148
http://publications.credit-suisse.com/tasks/render/file/index.cfm?fileid=F2425415-DCA7-
80B8-EAD989AF9341D47E

[54] OECD, Chng ta Chng li s Phn chia: Ti sao Bt bnh ng Gia tng?, 2011.
http://www.oecd.org/els/soc/49499779.pdf

[55] Frederick Solt, D liu Bt bnh ng Thu nhp Th gii theo nh chun, Working
paper, SWIID, Version 5.0, thng 10, 2014.
http://myweb.uiowa.edu/fsolt/swiid/swiid.html

[56] Richard Wilkinson v Kate Pickett, The Spirit Level: Why Greater Equality
Makes Societies Stronger, Bloomsbury Press, 2009.

[57] Sean F. Reardon and Kendra Bischoff, More unequal and more separate: Growth in the
residential segregation of families by income, 1970-2009, US 2010 Project, 2011.
http://www.s4.brown.edu/us2010/Projects/Reports.htm
http://cepa.stanford.edu/content/more-unequal-and-more-separate-growth-residential-
segregation-families-income-1970-2009

[58] Eleanor Goldberg, Facebook, Google ang cu ngi dn di c khi nn bun ngi,
Huffington Post, 10 thng 9, 2015.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/facebook-google-maps-
refugeesmigrants_55f1aca8e4b03784e2783ea4

[59] Robert M. Bond, Christopher J. Fariss, Jason J. Jones, Adam D. I. Kramer, Cameron
Marlow, Jaime E. Settle, v James H. Fowler, A 61-million- person experiment in social
influence and political mobilization, Nature, 2 thng 9, 2012.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v489/n7415/full/nature11421.html

149
[60] Stephen Hawking, Stuart Russell, Max Tegmark, Frank Wilczek, Stephen Hawking:
Transcendence looks at the implications of artificial intelligence but are we taking AI
seriously enough?, The Independent, 2 thng 5 2014.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/stephen-hawking-transcendence-looks-at-the-
implications-of-artificial-intelligence-but-are-we- taking-9313474.html

[61] Greg Brockman, Ilya Sutskever & the OpenAI team, Gii thiu OpenAI, 11 thng 12,
2015.
https://openai.com/blog/introducing-openai/

[62] Steven Levy, K hoch ca Elon Musk v Y Combinator nhm ngn chn my khi s
thng tr, 11 thng 12, 2015
https://medium.com/backchannel/how-elon-musk-and-y-combinator-plan-to-stop-computers-
from-taking-over-17e0e27dd02a#.qjj55npcj

[63] Sara Konrath, Edward OBrien, v Courtney Hsing. Changes in dispositional empathy
in American college students over time: A meta- analysis. Personality and Social Psychology
Review (2010).

[64] Trch dn trong: Simon Kuper, Log out, switch off, join in, FT Magazine, 2
October 2015.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fc76fce2-67b3-11e5-97d0-1456a776a4f5.html

[65] Sherry Turkle, Reclaiming Conversation: The Power of Talk in a Digital Age,
Penguin, 2015.

[66] Nicholas Carr, The Shallows: How the Internet is changing the way we think, read and
remember, Atlantic Books, 2010.

[67] Pico Iyer, The Art of Stillness: Adventures in Going Nowhere, Simon and

150
Schuster, 2014.

[68] Trch dn trong: Elizabeth Segran, The Ethical Quandaries You Should Think
About the Next Time You Look at Your Phone, Fast Company, 5 thng 10, 2015.
http://www.fastcompany.com/3051786/most-creative-people/the-ethical-quandaries-you-
should-think-about-the-next-time-you-look-at

[69] Thut ng tr tu ng cnh c a ra bi Nihtin Nohria vi nm trc khi ng tr

thnh hiu trng trng Harvard Business School.

[70] Klaus Schwab, Moderne Unternehmensfuhrung im Maschinenbau (Modern

Enterprise Management in Mechanical Engineering), VDMA, 1971.

[71] Trch dn trong: Peter Snow, The Human Psyche in Love, War & Enlightenment,
Boolarong Press, 2010.

[72] Daniel Goleman, iu g to nn mt ngi lnh o?, Harvard Business Review,

thng 1, 2004.
https://hbr.org/2004/01/what-makes-a-leader

[73] Rainer Maria Rilke, Letters to a Young Poet, Insel Verlag, 1929.

[74] Voltaire vit bng ting Php: Le doute nest pas une condition agrable, mais la
certitude est absurde. V Linh hn v c cha tri, bc th gi ti Frederick William,
Hong t Vng quc Ph, 28 thng 11, 1770, trong S.G. Tallentyre, trans., Voltaire in His
Letters: Being a Selection from His Correspondence, G.P. Putnams Sons, 1919.

[75] Martin Nowak with Roger Highfield, Super Cooperators: Altruism, Evolution, and Why
We Need Each Other to Succeed, Free Press, 2012.

151
[76] Din n kinh t th gii, Bin i su sc im Bng pht Cng ngh v nh hng
x hi, Bo co iu tra, Hi ng Chng trnh ngh s ton cu v Tng lai ca Phn
mm v X hi, thng 11, 2015.

[77] Mn t nh ngha ca website yelp.com, trong , con ngi s c th cung cp nhn

xt trc tip ti ngi khc v nhng nhn xt s c ghi li v/hoc chia s trc tuyn
thng qua nhng con chip c cy trong ngi h.

[78] Echo chambers (Phng cch ly) c ngha l nhng ngi ng mt cch m qung
vi ngi khc hoc lp li nhng g m ngi khc ni m khng suy ngh hay nghi ng.

79 Internet live stats, Ngi s dng Internet trn th gii,

http://www.internetlivestats.com/internet-users/
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

[80] Gartner ni rng doanh s bn my tnh bn truyn thng, my tnh bng, my tnh
mini, in thoi di ng tng 4,2% trong nm 2014, Gartner, 7 thng 7, 2014.
http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2791017

[81] S lng in thoi thng minh c bn cho ngi tiu dung cui cng trn ton th
gii t nm 2007 n 2014 (n v 1 triu), statista, 2015.
http://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/globalsmartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/

[82] Lev Grossman, Bn trong k hoch ca Facebook kt ni mng cho c th gii, tp

ch Time, 15 thng 12, 2014.
http://time.com/facebook-world-plan/

[83] Mt nm nhn li: Internet.org cc dch v c bn min ph, Facebook Newsroom, 26

thng 7, 2015.
http://newsroom.fb.com/news/2015/07/one-year-in-internet-org-free-basic-services/

152
[84] Udi Manber v Peter Norvig, Sc mnh ca s mnh Apollo trong tm kim Google,
Google Inside Search, 28 August 2012.
http://insidesearch.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-power-of-apollo-missions-in-single.html

[85] Satish Meena, Forrester Research World Mobile And Smartphone Adoption Forecast,
2014 To 2019 (Global), Forrester Research, 8 August 2014.
https://www.forrester.com/Forrester+Research+World+Mobile+And+Smartphone+Adoption
+Forecast+2014+To+2019+Global/fulltext/-/E-RES118252

[86] GSMA, Bo co GSMA mi d on na t thu bao in thoi di ng ti chu Phi

cn Sahara ti nm 2020, 6 thnasg 11, 2014.
http://www.gsma.com/newsroom/press-release/gsma-report-forecasts-half-a-billion-mobile-
subscribers-ssa-2020/

[87] So snh sc mnh x l: Hnh dung hiu sut my tnh tng 1 nghn t ln, Experts
Exchange.
http://pages.experts-exchange.com/processing-power-compared/

[88] Lch s chi ph lu tr, mkomo.com, 8 thng 9, 2009

http://www.mkomo.com/cost-per-gigabyte
Theo website ny, d liu c ly t lch s ghi ch v Chi ph ca khng gian lu tr
cng (http://ns1758.ca/winch/winchest.html). D liu t nm 2004 ti 2009 c ghi nhn
thng qua th vin s Internet Archive (http://archive.org/web/web.php).

[89] Elana Rot, Bn s c bao nhiu d liu trong 3 nm?, Sisense, 29 thng 7, 2015.
http://www.sisense.com/blog/much-data-will-3-years/

[90] nh lut Moore pht biu rng tc x l hoc s lng tng th transistor trn mi
n v inch vung, s tng ln gp i sau mi nm.

153
[91] Kevin Mayer, Keith Ellis v Ken Taylor, Theo di sc kho gia sc s dng mng cm
bin khng dy, K yu hi tho Truyn thng v Mng my tnh, Cambridge, MA, Hoa
K, 2004.
http://www.academia.edu/781755/Cattle_health_monitoring_using_wireless_sensor_network
s

[92] Carl Benedikt Frey v Michael Osborne, Tng lai ca vic lm: Nhng cng vic d
b nh hng bi tin hc ha nh th no?, 17 thng 9, 2013.
http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf

[93] Will Knight, Robot ny c th chuyn i nn sn xut, MIT Technology Review, 18

thng 9, 2012.
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/429248/this-robotcould-transform-manufacturing/

[94] Xem http://www.stratasys.com/

[95] Dan Worth, Thng mi ho vic s dng cng ngh in 3D i trc hiu bit ca
ngi tiu dng nhiu nm, V3.co.uk, 19 thng 8, 2014.
http://www.v3.co.uk/v3-uk/news/2361036/business-use-of-3d-printing-is-years-ahead-of-
consumer-uptake

[96] H sinh thi khi nghip in 3D, SlideShare.net, 31 thng 7, 2014.

http://de.slideshare.net/SpontaneousOrder/3d-printing-startup-ecosystem

[97] Alban Leandri, Ci nhn vo cng ngh in 3D trn kim loi v lnh vc cy ghp y
hc, 3DPrint.com, 20 thng 3, 2015.
http://3dprint.com/52354/3d-print-medical-implants/

[98] Nhu cu l c thc: D liu, S Dch v y t v Con ngi Hoa K, organdonor.gov.

154
http://www.organdonor.gov/about/data.html

[99] Mt hnh nh ca tng lai, The Economist, 19 thng 5, 2011.

http://www.economist.com/node/18710080

[100] Jessica Hedstrom, Hin trng cng ngh in 3D, 23 thng 5, 2015.
http://jesshedstrom.quora.com/The-State-of-3D-Printing

[101] Maurizio Bellemo, Cch mng cng nghip ln th ba: T Bit cho ti Nguyn t,
CrazyMBA.Club, 25 thng 1, 2015.
http://www.crazymba.club/the-third-industrial-revolution/

[102] T.E. Halterman, Th trng cng ngh in 3D ng u mc 3.3 t USD, pht trin
34% trong nm 2014, 3DPrint.com, 2 thng 4, 2015.
http://3dprint.com/55422/3d-printing-market-tops-3-3-billion-expands-by-34-in-2014/

[103] Ghi ch: im bng pht ny khng phi l mt phn ca bn iu tra ban u (Bin
i su sc im Bng pht Cng ngh v nh hng x hi, Bo co iu tra, Din n
Kinh t Th gii, thng 9, 2015)

[104] Nh trn.

[105] Fernandez A, Sriraman N, Gurewitz B, Oullier O (2015). Cng ngh thn kinh lan to:
Mt phn tch t ph v hn 10,000 h s sng ch s bin i y hc, sc kho, gii tr v
kinh doanh. SharpBrains, USA (206 p.)
http://sharpbrains.com/pervasive-neurotechnology/

[106] Oullier O (2012). Xo i suy ngh m h v qut b no. Nature, 483(7387), p. 7, doi:
10.1038/483007a
http://www.nature.com/news/clear-up-this-fuzzy-thinking-on-brain-scans-1.10127

155
156