Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Bill Vail
Houston
October 6, 2010
Genesis of the Resource Play Committee
Shale Gas
Coalbed Methane
Tight Gas Reservoirs
Basin Centered Gas Systems
Certain Tight Oil Reservoirs
Chapter 1 WHATS A RESOURCE PLAY ?
Resource Play - Tier 1 Criteria
Exhibits a repeatable statistical distribution
of EURs
Offset well performance is not a reliable
indicator of PUD performance
Contains continuous hydrocarbon systems
that are regional in extent
Hydrocarbons are not held in place by
hydrodynamics
Resource Play - Tier 2 Criteria
Requires Extensive Stimulation to Produce
Produces Little In-situ Water
Does Not Exhibit an Obvious Seal or Trap
Low Matrix Permeability (< 0.1 mD)
ALL VIRGINIA WELLS --- CBM WELLS
HIGHLIGHTED IN GREEN
Oakwood
CBM Wells
Buck Knob
Nora
Frequency
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0-50
50-100
100-150
150-200
200-250
250-300
300-350
Median
350-400
400-450
450-500
500-550
550-600
600-650
650-700
700-750
Mean
750-800
800-850
850-900
900-950
950-1000
1000-1050
1050-1100
1100-1150
1150-1200
1200-1250
1250-1300
1300-1350
1350-1400
1400-1450
1450-1500
1500-1550
EUR Range
1550-1600
1600-1650
1650-1700
1700-1750
1750-1800
1800-1850
Mean:
1850-1900
1900-1950
Median:
1950-2000
2000-2050
2050-2100
Well Count:
2100-2150
2150-2200
2200-2250
Distribution of EUR results
2250-2300
2300-2350
2350-2400
2400-2450
1121
476 MMcf
394 MMcf
2450-2500
2500-2550
2550-2600
2600-2650
2650-2700
Chapter 2 - Statistics
Chapter Highlights
Importance & Relevance of Lognormal Distributions
Use of P10/P90 ratios as a measure of uncertainty for
Lognormal Distributions
Recommendations for Minimum Sample Size
Aggregation
Use of P10/P90 ratios
-2 P1
P2
P5
P10
P20
P30
P40
P50
P60
P70
P80
P90
P95
P98
P99
10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000
GAS EUR (MMCF)
.
Aggregation
Figureno.2 27ImpactofAggregationonaLognormalDistributionWithaP10/P90Ratioof10
More Wells leads to tighter spread between P10 and P90
120,000
100,000
80,000
INITIAL RATE (MCF / MO)
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
WELL COUNT
P10/P90 <4, APPROXIMATE WELL COUNT < 50 100 150 > 500
P10/P90 4 TO 10, APPROXIMATE WELL COUNT < 50-200 100-400 150-600 > 1000
P10/P90 10 TO 30, APPROXIMATE WELL COUNT < 200-700 200-1400 600-2100 > 4500
How Many Locations Can Be
Identified as Proved?
PUD counts at Various Stages
Inside0.5mile
Inside1mile
Inside2miles
Expanding Concentric Radii Method
The second step creates subsequent
statistical distributions for wells located in
each concentric circle
Test Set 1
Test Set 2
Inside0.5mile
Inside1mile
Test Set 3
Inside2miles
Expanding Concentric Radii Method
Step 1 Create one statistical distribution
for Anchor wells
Step 2 Create a subsequent statistical
distribution for wells positioned in
Expanding Concentric Radii (Test Sets)
Step 3 Compare each statistical
distribution from the test sets to the
Anchor wells
Expanding Concentric Radii Method
Legend
ProducingArea
1MileRadius
AnchorWell
ProducingWell(NonAnchor)
0.5MileRadiusDistribution 1MileRadiusDistribution
Expanding Concentric Radii Method
Distribution P2
P80
P90
P95
P98
Legend
Anchor Set 1
Analogue Wells
Geologic Subset 1
Project 1
Non Contiguous Drilling Area
LKH
0 3 6 12 Miles
Resource Play
Clipped Polygons within Expanding Concentric Circles
Chapter 4 -Estimating Reserves for
Undrilled Locations in a Resource Play
Identify Analogous Wells
Create a Statistical Distribution for
Analogous Wells
Determine the Number of Drilling
Opportunities
Prepare a Monte Carlo Simulation
Estimate Reserves using PRMS
Definitions
Alternatives for Running Monte Carlo Simulations
90%
80%
70%
PRO VED AG GREG ATION FACTOR
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
WELL COUNT
Please note that all of the views and opinions expressed within
this presentation are opinions held solely by the author and by
members of SPEEs Resource Play Committee; they represent
neither the opinions of DeGolyer and MacNaughton (Texas
Registered Engineering Firm F-716) nor of its management.
Questions?
Id like to express my sincere appreciation to all the
companies that participated in this work: