8/4/2017 AuthoritarianCapitalismVersusDemocracy|HooverInstitution

April&Ma2012

AuthoritarianCapitalismVersusDemocrac
IvanKratev
Frida,March30,2012

Americaisapower,uropeisanexperience
JoschkaFischer

In2002roertkagan,aleadingneoconservativeintellectualtemporarilexiledinrussels,wrotearilliantessa,PowerandWeakness,arguing
thatthepoliticalpersonalitofuropeanpowerasweknowittodaistheproductofAmericasColdWarpoliciesandtheuniversalizationofuropes
post-WorldWarIIpoliticalexperience.utmorethananthingelse,itistheproductofuropescurrentmilitarweakness.

Inhisanalsis,post-9/11Americashouldnaturallhavecooperatedwithurope,utWashingtoncouldnotrelontheuropeanUnionasastrategic
partnerinmanagingtheworldecauseontheall-importantquestionofpowertheefficacofpower,themoralitofpower,thedesirailitofpower
Americananduropeanperspectivesarediverging.

AdecadelaterAmericananduropeanperspectivesdivergeontheall-importantquestionofthedeclineofWesternpower.WhileAmericanelitesview
theverdiscussionofdeclineaspre-emptivesuperpowersuicide,uropeansareuslearninghowtoliveinaworldwheretheeuisnotaleading
actorandtheuropeancontinentisnotthecenteroftheworldutsimplthewealthiestprovince.

CoulditethattheclashetweenWashingtonsdenialoftheverpossiilitofAmericasdeclineanduropesexcessivereadinesstoadjusttoitcan
damagetheWesternalliancemorethanthecontroversovertheuseofpowerdid?Coulditethatattheheartofthecurrenttroulesinthe
transatlanticrelationshipisacrisisofthepoliticalimaginationoftheWest?

Iwanttoarguethattheparadoxofthenewworldorderemergingoutoftheongoingrecessionisthatthegloalspreadofdemocracandcapitalism,
insteadofsignalingtheendofhistor,markedtheendoftheWestasapoliticalactorconstructedinthedasoftheColdWar.Inthedecadesto
comethenatureofthepoliticalregimeswilleanunrelialepredictorforthegeopoliticalalliancestoemerge;anditisthelurringordersetween
democraciesandauthoritariancapitalism,ratherthanthetriumphofdemocracortheresurgenceofauthoritarianism,thatdefinesthegloalpolitical
landscape.

KagansLongTelegram

InpowerandweaknessRoertKaganeschewedpoliticalcorrectness,insistingthataftertheendoftheColdWarAmericansanduropeansno
longersharedacommonviewoftheworld.Thenolongersharedacommonstrategicculture.ThedivergenceetweenAmericaanduropecane
estexplainednotdifferencesinnationalcharacterorvaluesstemsuttheasmmetrofpower.Itisuropesrelativemilitarweaknessthat
determinesuropeansrejectionofpowerasaninstrumentininternationalrelations.AnditisAmericasstrengththatdefinesAmericansreadinessto
usemilitarpower.Inshort,capailitiesshapeintentions.Forcedtochooseetweenincreasingtheirmilitarudgetsandecomingsecond-rate
powers,uropeansmostlikelwillchoosemarginalit.

Contrartotheopinionofitscritics,Kagansessawasnotadismissaloftheeusrelevanceintheworld.ParadoxicallKagansdispatchfromrussels
wasreaffirmationoftheimportanceofthetransatlanticalliance.ArguingwiththeprevailingconsensusinWashingtonatthetime,heassertedthatit
wastruethaturopehadlostitsgeostrategicandmilitarsignificancefortheU..uturopehadretaineditscriticalideologicalrelevanceforthe
Americanforeignpolic,heelieved,ecausethesplitetweenAmericaanduropemeanttheendofthepost-ColdWarworld.AndinKagans
strategicvisionitisthepost-ColdWarworldaworldwithoutovietpowerutdefinedtheideologicalconfrontationetweenfreenationsand
trannicalregimesthatestsuitsAmericaninterests.

Re-readingKagansarticleadecadelater,wefacethreecriticalquestions.WasKaganrighttoexpectthatevenafurtherdeclineoftheeusinfluencein
gloalpolitics,evenathreattotheversurvivaloftheeu,wouldnotforceuropetoinvestinitsmilitarcrediilit?Washerighttoexpectthat
Americaspolitical,economic,andmilitardominanceingloalpoliticswouldesustainaleinthemedium-andlong-term?Andwasherighttoelieve
thatthenewworldorderwouldestructuredalongthelinesoftheColdWarconfrontationetweendemocraciesandautocracies?

Theeuasaretiredpower

InhisnovelDeathwithInterruptions,NoelPrizewinningwriterJosaramagoimaginesaworldwherepeoplewilllivesolongthatdeathwillloseits
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InhisnovelDeathwithInterruptions,NoelPrizewinningwriterJosaramagoimaginesaworldwherepeoplewilllivesolongthatdeathwillloseits
centralroleinhumanlife.Atfirst,peoplearegrippedeuphoria.utsoon,awkwardnessofvariouskindsmetaphsical,political,andpractical
startstoreentertheirworld.TheCatholicChurchrealizesthatwithoutdeaththereisnoresurrection,andwithoutresurrectionthereisnochurch.For
insurancecompanies,lifewithoutdeathalsomeansolivion.Thestatefacestheimpossiletaskofpaingpensionsforever.Familieswithelderland
infirmrelativesunderstandthatonldeathsavesthemfromaneternitofattentivecare.Amafia-stlecaalemergestosmuggleoldandsickpeople
toneighoringcountriestodie(deathisstillanoptionthere).Theprimeministerwarnsthemonarch:Ifwedontstartdingagain,wehavenofuture.

Thechallengesuropefacestodainmanwasresemlethemetaphsicaldilemmasthecitizensofaramagosnodeathutopiankingdomstruggle
with.uropeisstilltheestplacetolive,utitisnotanmoreagoodplacetodream.Whatmakesuropeasuccessisatthesametimewhat
threatensuropethewelfarestate;themultilaeredmodelofeugovernance.Thecurrentcrisisforceduropetore-perceivetheworld,utina
paradoxicalwaitonlreinforcesuropesshiftawafrommilitarpower.Todafearisuropesdominantcolor,uturopeansdonotworraout
eingoccupiedormilitarildefeated.Whatthefeariseconomicinsecuritandalossoftheirwaoflife.

AstudtheuropeanCouncilonForeignRelations,conductedin2011,foundthatoththeeussecuritelitesandtheuropeanpulictakepeace
forgranted.Theincreasingllookatsecuritthroughtheeesofinsurancecompaniesratherthanmilitarplanners.Whilethecrisispushedemerging
powerslikeChinaandIndiatoincreasetheirmilitarspending,inuropedefenseudgetswerethefirsttoecut.natosmilitarinterventioninLia
initiatedtheFrenchPresidentNicolasarkozandtheritishPrimeMinisterDavidCameron,whilemeanttodemonstrateuropesrelevanceasa
militarpower,endedupconfirmingthefearsthattheuropeanUnionneitherisreadnorhasthecapailittoassertitselfasamilitarpower.The
uropeansdidnotsucceedinactingtogether;theperformanceoftheuropeanmilitarunitsengagedintheoperationrevealedadangerous
dependenceonAmericasintelligenceandlogistics;andtheuropeanpulics,whilesupportiveintheeginning,versoonlosttheirappetiteforthe
intervention.

NoodhasettercapturedthenewsituationthantheformerU..ecretarofDefenseRoertGates,who,echoingRoertKagan,inaFeruar2011
speechattheNationalDefenseUniversit,expressedhisfearthatthedemilitarizationofuropewherelargeswathsofthegeneralpulicand
politicalclassareaversetomilitarforceandtherisksthatgowithithasgonefromalessinginthe20thcenturtoanimpedimenttoachievingreal
securitandlastingpeaceinthe21st.

TheunfoldingofthepostColdWarworldorderhasmadeuropeansnervousandanxiousaoutthefuture.
TheunfoldingofthepostColdWarworldorderhasmadeuropeansnervousandanxiousaoutthefuture.utwhatthecrisishasrevealedis
uropeansstrongtendenctotranslatesecuritprolemsintoeconomicandsocialissuesthatcanedealtwithregulation,criminaljustice,or
technologratherthanclassicalforeignandmilitarpolicies.

Reflectingontheself-destructionofthepre-1914lieralurope,theViennesewritertefanZweigwasconvincedthattheoutreakofWorldWarIhad
nothingtodowithideasandhardlevenwithfrontiers.Thecatastropheshouldeexplainedthesurplusforce,atragicconsequenceofthe
internaldnamismthathadaccumulatedinfortearsofpeaceandnowsoughtviolentrelease.

After70earsofpeace,todasuropeisnotimmunetothedangerofviolentoutursts.utitisnotthesurplusofenerg(economic,political,cultural)
utthedeficitofenergthatthreatensuropetoda.Therisk-aversenatureoftheeuasaninternationalplaerhasitsdemographicexplanation.
uropeisagingandshrinking.Thedataprojectionstellusthatthemedianageinuropewillincreaseto52.3earsin2050from37.7earsin2003,
whilethemedianageforAmericansin2050willeonl35.4ears.uropesshareofgloalgdpisthuslialetoshrinkinthedecadestocome.Faced
withthechoicetoeitheropentheordersofuropetoimmigrants,andthuspreservetheirstandardsofliving,orclosetheordersandsuffer
economicdeclines,uropeanshavedecidedtosimplrejectthepoliticalclassthatarticulatesthischoice.Inshort,uropeisatapointwherethe
demographicimaginationdefeatsthedemocraticone.uropeansdonotaspireanmoretochangeothersocieties;thearepreoccupiedwiththefear
thatothersaretringtochangethemthroughimmigrationoreconomicpressure.

Adecadeaftertheuropean-AmericanclashoverWashingtonsmilitarinterventioninIraq,uropeansarestillproudoftheirpositionof
nonintervention,utthehavehadsecondthoughtsaoutthevirtuesofamultipolarworld.Ifadecadeagouropeanswereconvincedthatwhatthe
worldneedsinordertoecomeaetterplaceisamoreuropean-mindedAmerica,thearenotsureanmore.Americaatlasthasauropean-
mindedpresident,utarackOamadidnotsucceedinsolvingtheIsraeli-Palestinianconflict,hedidnotsucceedingettingIranoffthenuclearpath,
andhedidnotsucceedinchangingRussiaspoliticalehavior.WhatOamasucceededindoingisstartingAmericaswithdrawalfromurope.Itturned
outthateinguropean-mindedisnotthesameaseinginterestedinurope.

ItwasAmericasgloalhegemonthatenaledtheUtoemergeontheworldstageasanattractivepowerinthefirstplace.
WhatmanoftheuropeancriticsofAmericanpowerhavediscoveredisthataworldorderuiltonseeminglunassailaleAmericanpowerwasthe
onemosthospitaletotheuropeanproject.ItwasAmericasgloalhegemonthatenaledtheuropeanUniontoemergeontheworldstageasan
attractivepowerinthefirstplace.AmericanhegemonmaderoomfortheuropeanUniontoexperimentwitheinganunconventional,non-nation-
stateactorandfreedittoconcentrateonitsinternalscopeandinstitutionalarchitecture.Americassecuritumrella,notleast,allowedtheuropean
Uniontoecomeagloalpowerwithoutneedingtoecomeamilitarone.utwhileuropeansarenostalgicfortheAmericanworldofesterda,
thedonotelievethatthisistheworldoftomorrow.uropeanshavealsolosttheirconvictionthattheeuisthegovernancemodelfortheworldto
come.

Adecadeago,uropeanpulicopinionassumedthatgloalizationwouldpromptthedeclineofstatesaskeinternationalactorsandnationalismasa
seminalpoliticalmotivator.utwhatuntiljustesterdaseemeduniversallapplicaleeginstolookexceptionaltoda.venapassingglanceat
China,India,andRussia,nottospeakofthevastreachesoftheMuslimworld,makesclearthatothethnicnationalismandreligionareackasmajor
ideologicaldrivingforcesshapinggloalpolitics.Post-modernism,post-nationalism,andsecularismaremakinguropedifferentfromtherestofthe
world,notmakingtherestoftheworldmorelikeurope.

o,uropeisunhappwiththenewrealitutdoesnotfeelstrongenoughtochangeit.AndKaganwasrightadecadeagotopredictthattheeus
relativeweaknesswillendupinthenarrowingoftheuropeanmindandwillleaduropeawafromengagingwithgloalaffairs.Onlpowerful

nationscansuscrietoauniversalistagenda:ThisistheaxiomofKaganshistoricallinformedrealism.Theweaknesscomestogetherwith
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nationscansuscrietoauniversalistagenda:ThisistheaxiomofKaganshistoricallinformedrealism.Theweaknesscomestogetherwith
parochialism.

Decline:Achoiceoraresultofchoicesmade?

AdecadeafterPowerandWeakness,RoertKaganwroteanotherpiecethatcapturedtheimaginationoftheAmericanpresident.Thistimethe
presidentwasnotGeorgeW.ushutarackOama,andthepiecewasnotaouturopeutaoutAmerica.AgainsttheMthofAmericanDecline,
anessapulishedintheNewRepulicinFeruarofthisear,isKagansargumentwithallthosewhoelieveinAmericasdecline.Lookingackat
historandinterpretingthesmptomsofAmericascurrentmalaise,KaganisconvincedthatAmericaisnotindeclineandthatthefashionofdeclinism
isrootedinanalstsosessionswithtrendsattheexpenseofvolumes,andinanostalgicfallac.VermuchlikeWalltreetinvestors,mostofthe
proponentsofdeclinearepreoccupiedwithleanings,sothetendtoviewtherisingpowersasstrongerthanandtheUnitedtatesasweakerthanthe
situationwarrants.utifanalstsdecidetolookatvolumesandnotsimplattrends,thewillseethatAmericahaspreserveditsdominantpositionin
militar,political,andeconomicterms.ManpeoplealsoviewAmericaashumiliatinglweaktodaecausethehaveaverwrongimpressionofhow
strongitwasesterda.Inrealit,theUnitedtateswasneverasinfluentialassomeelieve.Andputinhistoricalperspective,thecurrentdeclinein
AmericasinfluenceislessalarmingcomparedwithwhathappenedtoAmericaspowerin1970s.

WhatmakesKagananoptimistishisconvictionthatthepresentworldordercharacterizedanunprecedentednumerofdemocraticnations;a
greatergloalprosperit,evenwiththecurrentgloalcrisis,thantheworldhaseverknown;andalongpeaceamonggreatpowersreflects
AmericanprinciplesandpreferencesandwasuiltandpreservedAmericanpower...IfAmericaspowerdeclines,thisworldorderwilldeclinewith
it.Inshort,Americaisnotindeclineecausetheworldcannotaffordit.TheversurvivalofthelieralinternationalorderisaproofofAmericas
strength.

ItistruethatthedeterminismofthepessimistswhohavealreadacceptedAmericasdeclineasinevitaleisnotmuchdifferentfromthedeterminism
oftheoptimistswhotwodecadesagoendorsedtheideaoftheendofhistor.utwhileitiswrongtoetonAmericasdecline,itisfairtooservethat
nothingseemsfurtherfromAmericainthe1990sthanAmericatoda.Inthepastdecade,Americasgloalinfluencehassufferedsustantialsetacks.
Americahasexperiencedthelimitsofhardpowerandtheerosionofsoftpower.ThewarsinAfghanistanandIraqthatweremeanttoeillustrationsof
AmericancapacittoprojectpowerandreshapetherealitonthegroundhaveturnedintoillustrationsofthelimitsofAmericascapacittomakea
difference.Inthethree-worldsuniverseofpostmodern,modern,andpre-moderndescriedRoertCooperinhisookThereakingofNations,
Americaexperiencedthreedifferentsetsofconstraints.InthepostmodernworldAmericadoesnothaveallieswhoarereadtoshareitsamitionto
managehistor.Intheworldofmodernnation-statesAmericaisconstrainednottherisk-aversenatureofheralliesutthegrowingmilitar
strengthofheropponents.NuclearproliferationisafactanditwillemoreandmoredifficultfortheU..toimposeitswillonhostilenuclearpowers.
Andinthepre-modernworldoffailingstatesandtrialloaltiesAmericaexperiencestheunearalelightnessofnation-uilding.o,itisnotthat
Americahasdeclinedwhileotherstaketopseatatthetale;itisthatonthefieldofgloalpolitics,Americaisnotwhatitusedtoe.

AmericaspowerismanifestednotcapturingimaginationsutWashingtonsailittoloaditsprolemsonothers.
Adecadeago,Washingtonspowerwasestdemonstrateditscapacittoshapethechoicesofothers,makingworldpoliticslooklikeacontestof
whoimitatesAmericaestitseconomicmodel,educationalinstitutions,andentertainmentindustr.TodaAmericaspowerismanifestednotits
capacittocapturetheimaginationofothersutWashingtonscapacittoloaditsprolemsonothers.AtpresentothuropeandAmericahave
mind-lowingdetprolems,utwhileAmericasucceedsinrefinancingitsdetonverfavoraleconditions,someoftheurozonecountriesare
forcedtofinancetheirdetatself-destructiveinterestrates.ThisisapainfuldemonstrationofAmericaeingapoweranduropeeingnotpowerful
enough.

o,declineisachoiceutalsotheoutcomeofchoicesthatwerealreadmade.Thenewl-foundweaknessoftheU..isnotonlintheimaginationof
thedeclinistsutintheerosionofAmericaseconomicpower,thedecliningsocialmoilitinAmericansociet,andthecitizenslossoftrustin
Americaninstitutions.ThecrisisthatAmericansocietisgoingthroughisnotunprecedented,utthatdoesntmeanthatthistimeitcannotendup
differentl.KaganisrighttoarguethatAmericacannotturnitsackontheworldanditsprolems,utitisalsounrealistictoelievethatAmericas
reputationwillnotehurtthewaothersviewtheperformanceoftheAmericaneconomicandpoliticalsstem.Fallinginlovewiththeideathat
AmericanpowerisindeclinepresentsaclearandpresentdangerforAmericansociet.utthedenialofAmericasvisilelossofinfluencecannote
thealternativetodecline.

ReflectingontheWestsexperienceinthelastdecade,itisfairtooservethatifuropefellvictimtoitstendenctothinkofmilitarpoweronlin
moralterms,Americafellvictimtothetrivializationofwar.ThepostColdWarmilitarinterventions(thealkanseingtheparadigmaticcase)created
theexpectationthatAmericanengagementswiththeworldwouldringmaximumglorandminimumcasualties.Warhaslostitsmeaningasan
exceptionalcollectiveexperiencethatreaffirmstheidentitofthenation.Warlostitsmeaningofnationalsacrificeandtheultimateconcentrationof
nationalenerg.Americahasecomeusedtowhattheritsusedtocallmilitarexpeditions.Warhaseenturnedintoprofessionalsport.

Isittomorrowet?

InthedasafterthefalloftheerlinWall,AmericanpoliticalscientistKenJowittoservedthattheendofcommunismislikeapoliticalvolcanothatin
theeginningaffectsacircumscriedareaut,dependingonitsforce,eventuallaffectstheentiregloe.AsJowittwroteinhisookNewWorld
Disorder,wecannotexpecttheclearingawaeffectoftheLeninistextinctiontoeself-contained,toeapoliticalstormthatconsideratellosesits
forceasifapproachesWesternandThirdWorldcoasts.

KagansunwillingnesstoacknowledgethedramaticwainwhichtheendoftheColdWarhasaffectednotonltheastutalsotheWest,howithas
transformedoththelieraldemocraticregimesandtheregimesofauthoritariancapitalism,istherealsourceofvulnerailitofhisinsightfulanalsis.
Inthecurrentworldofsoftordershetendstolurtheorderetweenthenormativeandtheanaltical,theorderetweenwhatshouldhappenand
whatismostlikeltohappen.

Kaganenvisionsinternationallieralorderasapost-ovietworlddisciplinedthemoralclaritoftheColdWarideologicalconfrontationetween
freedomandtrannanddominatedasinglepower:theUnitedtates.Heelievesinaworlddividedetweentheleagueofdemocraciesandthe
axisofautocracies.utcouldtheColdWarsideologicalframeepreservedintheworldofgloalcapitalism,wheremone,technologies,andideas
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axisofautocracies.utcouldtheColdWarsideologicalframeepreservedintheworldofgloalcapitalism,wheremone,technologies,andideas
arechanginghandseverminute?InaworldinwhichthesonsanddaughtersofauthoritarianleadersarestudingandlivingintheWest,inwhichthe
moneofauthoritariangovernmentsismanagedWesternankers,inwhichAmericanvotingmachinesaremostlikelmanufacturedinChina?

etween1917and1989,ideologiesreplacednationalpassionsatthecenterofworldpolitics.utthisverexceptionalperiodendedwiththecollapse
oftheovietUnion.TheendoftheColdWarwasalessingfortheWestecauseitleftcapitalismanddemocracwithoutanalternative,utitwasalso
acurseecauseitforcedthealternativestodemocracandcapitalismtomutate(takingtheformsofdemocraticormarketinstitutions)andecauseit
profoundlchangedtherelationsetweentheelitesandsocieties.

TheColdWarwasatimewhenthedemocraticWestsuccessfulldismantledtheordersetweensocialclasseswhilestrengtheningandsuccessfull
defendingtheordersetweenthestatesandinparticularetweenfreenationsandcommunistdictatorships.InthedasoftheColdWar,political
andusinesseliteshauntedthespecterofthecommunisttakeoverwereactivelcooperatingwiththesocietatlarge,exposingthemselvestothe
constraintsofdemocraticpolitics.Inthepasttwodecades,however,thereverseisthetrend.Theordersetweenstatesaregradualllosingtheir
importancewhiletheordersetweensocialclasseshaveecomemuchmoredifficulttocross.Gloalizationdramaticallincreasedthenumerof
middle-classpeopleintheworld,utithaserodedthefoundationsofthemiddle-classsocietiesthatwerethedistinctivefeatureoftheColdWarWest.
ocialinequalithasincreasedinmostWesterndemocracies,andsocialmoilithasdeclined.

Thegloalemergenceofahovercraftelite,increasinglorderlessandemotionallunrelatedtotheirsocieties,isthefruitofa30-earprocessthatwe
mightcallthemovementforthelierationoftheelites.Whatdistinguishesthenewelitesfrompreviousgenerationsoftherichandpowerfulistheir
lackofideologandtheirescapefromtherestraintsimposedthenation-state.Thesocialcontractetweenrichandpoorhaseenerodedthe
easewithwhichthewealthcanstockpiletheirmoneeondtheredistriutivepowerofthenation-state.utoffshoretaxsheltersareonla
smptomofalargertrend.Thenewgloalelites,electedaswellasunelected,arelessandlessdependentoncitizen-soldiers(ecauseofvolunteer
armiesusingpush-uttonweaponr),citizen-workers(ecauseofoutsourcing),andcitizen-consumers(ecauseofforeignpurchasersofnatural
resourcesandhigh-techproducts).Andthedecliningcapacitofcitizen-voterstocontrolpoliticiansorholdtheirnationalelitesaccountalefollows
naturallfromthedeclininginfluenceofcitizen-workers,citizen-soldiers,andcitizen-consumers.

Theexperienceofthepastdecadedemonstratesthatthenaturesofpoliticalregimesarenottheestpredictorsofemerginggeopoliticalalliances.
NewlemergingdemocraticpowerslikeIndiaandrazilareverreluctanttomakedemocracpromotionthecenteroftheirforeignpolicdecision-
making.Old-fashionedideasofnationalinterest,utalsopostcolonialsolidarities,seemmuchetterpredicatorsfortheforeignpolicrationaleofthe
newdemocraticpowers.InuropeinthedasoftheColdWar,foreignpolicwaskeptoutofelectoralpolitics,whileeconomicdecision-makingwasat
itsheart.Now,uropeanpolicmakersaretringtoplaceeconomicdecision-makingoutsideofpolitics;whatremainsaretheissuesofidentitand
foreignpolic.

otheworldoftomorrowisunlikeltoedisciplinedtheColdWarcorset.Itisnotonlthatthenewdemocraticpowersareunenthusiasticaout
makingdemocracpromotionthedefiningfeatureoftheirinternationalehavior,utalsothefactthatsomeoftherecentdemocraticexplosionsinthe
worldarelikeltoendwiththeestalishmentofillieralandanti-WesternregimesunattractivetoAmericananduropeanpulics.

Chinaisarisinggloalpower,utChinaisnottheideologicalotherKaganhopesfor.ThecitizensofthedemocraticWestdonotseetheworldof
authoritariancapitalismasathreatsimilartotheovietone.TheovietUnionwasnotsimplanondemocraticpower.Itwasahostilepoliticaluniverse.
Itwasapowerwiththeamitiontoconquertheworldandtoremakeitinitsownwa.Noneofthecurrentspoilersininternationalpoliticshasthis
cominationofideologicalvisionandmilitarandpoliticalpower.MostAmericansanduropeansarerepelledtherealitiesoftheChineseorRussian
regimes,utthedonotviewthemasthreatstotheirwaoflife.

Inaworldoflurredordersandoffshoreelites,theriseofChinadoesnotnecessarmeanChineserulesfortheworld.Thereturnoftheworld
withoutmeaningmakesitpossilefortheinternationallieralordertosurviveeveniftheWestspowerdeclines(shortofcollapse)andthepowerof
authoritariancapitalismisonarise.WhatcanmakeChinadifferentfromtheUnitedtatesasaworldleaderisnotsomuchAmericandemocracvs.
ChineseauthoritarianismasthecontrastingwasinwhichAmericansandChinesehaveexperiencedtheworldeondtheirorders.

Thespreadofdemocracandcapitalismmakesitmoredifficultifnotimpossiletouildlastingvalue-asedcoalitions.
Americaisanationofimmigrants,utitisalsoanationofpeoplewhoneveremigrate.incethefirsturopeanssettledthereinthe17thcentur,
peoplefromaroundtheworldhaveeendrawntotheAmericandreamofaetterfuture;Americasallureispartlitsailittotransformothersinto
Americans.Itis,therefore,notsurprisingthatAmericasgloalagendaistransformative;itisarule-maker.

TheChinese,ontheotherhand,havenottriedtochangetheworld,utrathertoadjusttoit.Chinasrelationshipswithothercountriesarechanneled
throughitsdiaspora,andtheChineseperceivetheworldviatheirexperienceasimmigrants.

Chinatownsoften-insularcommunitieslocatedinlargecitiesaroundtheworldareattheheartoftheChineseexperienceoftheworld.Asthe
politicalscientistLucianPeonceoserved,theChineseseesuchanasolutedifferenceetweenthemselvesandothersthattheunconsciouslfind
itnaturaltorefertothoseinwhosehomelandthearelivingasforeigners.

WhiletheAmericanmeltingpottransformsothers,Chinatownsteachtheirinhaitantstoadjusttoprofitfromtheirhostsrulesandusinesseswhile
remainingseparate.WhileAmericanscarrtheirflaghigh,Chineseworkhardtoeinvisile.

ecauseChinaisaoutadaptation,nottransformation,itisunlikeltochangetheworlddramaticallshoulditeverassumethegloaldriversseat.ut
thisdoesnotmeanthatChinawontexploittheworldforitsownpurposes.

America,atleastintheor,prefersthatothercountriesshareitsvaluesandactlikeAmericans.Chinacanonlfearaworldwhereeverodactslike
theChinese.o,inafuturedominatedChina,theChinesewillnotsettherules;rather,thewillseektoextractthegreatestpossileenefitfrom
therulesthatalreadexist.

othisistheparadoxicalnatureofournewworldthespreadofdemocracandcapitalismmakesitmoredifficultifnotimpossiletouildlasting4/5
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othisistheparadoxicalnatureofournewworldthespreadofdemocracandcapitalismmakesitmoredifficultifnotimpossiletouildlasting
value-asedcoalitions.Atthesametime,itmakesitpossilefortheinternationallieralordertosurviveeveninthecasethattheWestspower
declinesandthepowersofauthoritariancapitalismenjoatemporarrise.

IvanKrastevisthechairmanoftheCentreforLieraltrategiesinofiaandpermanentfellowattheInstituteforHumanciencesinVienna.Heisamemeroftheoardoftheuropean
CouncilonForeignRelations.

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