JUL 23 NBC Financial Group Weekly Economic Letter

July 23, 2010
U.S. economy: recovery or relapse?

Summary
Topic of the week
• Certain economic indicators have been slowing down for
Certain economic indicators have been slowing some time now, raising concerns about the U.S.
down for some time now, raising concerns about economic outlook among many observers.
the U.S. economic outlook among many
• Yet, at the end of 2010Q2, consumption and corporate
observers. Yet, in 2010Q2, U.S. domestic demand
profits were already in expansion territory.
will post its best performance in four years.
Though disappointing relative to the magnitude of • Moreover, in 2010Q2, U.S. domestic demand will post its
the past downturn, private employment is best performance in four years.
nonetheless bouncing back faster than during the
1991 and 2001 recoveries. Finally, the dynamics • Though disappointing relative to the magnitude of the
of leading and coincident indicators do not suggest past downturn, private employment is nonetheless
an imminent contraction in activity south of the bouncing back faster than during the 1991 and 2001
border. Though the chances of a relapse are not recoveries.
yet nil, it is not the scenario that we are betting on • Growing profits, mounting real GDP and a high
for the U.S. economy. Instead, the U.S. economy confidence level among business managers should
is actually approaching the threshold of expansion. contribute to generate further job creation.
• Thanks to soft auto sales, consumer deleveraging and
• Economic indicators review (p. 7) the recent drop in mortgage rates, the financial
obligations ratio of U.S. households is already almost
back to its historical average for the past 30 years. This
• Things to watch bodes well for continued consumption growth.
Economic calendar and significant earnings
announcements of the week ahead (p. 8) • Finally, the dynamics of leading and coincident
indicators do not suggest an imminent contraction in
• Economic tables (p. 9) activity south of the border.
• As you might easily have guessed, though the chances
of a relapse are not yet nil, it is not the scenario that we
are betting on for the U.S. economy. Instead, the U.S.
economy is actually approaching the threshold of
expansion.
Upside since recession

Before cutting to the chase of our analysis, we need to re-
establish a few facts about the current recovery in the
United States. First of all, consumption, the heavy-weight
component of the U.S. economy accounting for 70% of
activity, has topped its pre-recession peak in the span of
only five quarters. Not bad considering that consumers are
in the throes of deleveraging.
ECONOMY AND STRATEGY GROUP – 514.879.2529

Stéfane Marion, Chief Economist and Strategist
General: National Bank Financial (NBF) is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of National Bank of Canada. National Bank of Canada is a public company listed on Canadian stock exchanges. ♦ The particulars contained herein were obtained from
sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or
sell the securities mentioned herein. ♦Canadian Residents: In respect of the distribution of this report in Canada, NBF accepts responsibility for its contents. To make further inquiry related to this report or effect any transaction, Canadian residents
should contact their NBF Investment advisor. ♦ U.S. Residents: NBF Securities (USA) Corp., an affiliate of NBF, accepts responsibility for the contents of this report, subject to any terms set out above. Any U.S. person wishing to effect transactions
in any security discussed herein should do so only through NBF Securities (USA) Corp. UK Residents: In respect of the distribution of this report to UK residents, NBF has approved this financial promotion for the purposes of Section 21(1) of the
Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. NBF and/or its parent and/or any companies within or affiliates of the National Bank of Canada group and/or any of their directors, officers and employees may have or may have had interests or long or
short positions in, and may at any time make purchases and/or sales as principal or agent, or may act or may have acted as market maker in the relevant securities or related financial instruments discussed in this report, or may act or have acted as
investment and/or commercial banker with respect thereto. The value of investments can go down as well as up. Past performance will not necessarily be repeated in the future. The investments contained in this report are not available to private
customers. This report does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for the securities described herein nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection
with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This information is only for distribution to non-private customers in the United Kingdom within the meaning of the rules of the Regulated by the Financial Services Authority. ♦ Copyright: This report may
not be reproduced in whole or in part, or further distributed or published or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions or conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express written consent of
National Bank Financial.
WEEKLY ECONOMIC LETTER
1) Consumption and profits growing? consumption (left-hand side of Chart 2), whose curve
Level of consumption and profits* since the end of the recession is in fact less steep than the
% $ billions $ billions average for past recoveries.
9,440 1,700
9,400
9,360
Consumption (L)
Demande excédentaire
1,650
1,600
However, if we look at past episodes individually, we
9,320 1,550 clearly see that the present recovery in consumption is
9,280 1,500 comparable to the two previous ones in 1991 and 2001,
9,240 1,450
9,200 1,400
but not those before that (Chart 3).
9,160 1,350
9,120
Offre excédentaire
1,300 3) Recoveries fall into two tiers
9,080 1,250 Real consumption index in times of recovery
9,040 Profits (R) 1,200 1.070 Index: 1 = onset of recession
9,000 1,150 1.065 Recoveries since
8,960 1,100 1.060 1960s prior to 1991
06Q1 06Q3 07Q1 07Q3 08Q1 08Q3 09Q1 09Q3 10Q1 10Q3
1.055
1.050
*Q2 data = NBFG projection 1.045
NBFG Economy and Strategy Group, Congressional Budget Office 1.040
1.035
1.030 2001
What’s more, all this came about despite a decline in 1.025 2009
credit aggregates, which constitute lagging indicators of 1.020
1.015 1991
the economic cycle. Second, corporate profits have been 1.010
on the rise for several quarters now. This provides 1.005
1.000
considerable leeway given that businesses are generally 0.995
1 2 3 4 5
in a better financial position today than they were during
the recoveries of 1991 and 2001. NBFG Economy and Strategy Group, Global Insight
2) A robust investment cycle Observers have remarked that, generally speaking, the
Real consumption Real investment in machinery and equipment present recovery is weaker than usual if we consider the
fact that the decline this recession was more severe. In
1.050 Index: 1 = last quarter of recessions 1.12 Index: 1 = last quarter of recessions
1.045 1.11 Current cycle* other word, a sharper downturn should call for a sharper
1.040
1.10 rebound. We concur with this analysis entirely. From this
1.09
1.035 Average cycle
(1960 to 2001) 1.08
Average cycle excluding
aftermath of tech bubble
point of view, there is no denying that the present recovery
1.030 1.07 collapse is generally more modest.
1.025 1.06
1.020 1.05
However, from a different perspective, the stock market
1.015 1.04
1.03
Average cycle
(1960 to 2001)
already reacted to the fact that the recession was more
1.010
1.005
Current cycle* 1.02 severe, having retreated much further than in past
1.01
1.000 1.00
episodes. Seeing how investors look straight ahead and
0.995
1 2 3 4 5
0.99
1 2 3 4 5
not in the rear-view mirror, the pace of the recovery,
# of quarters # of quarters regardless of the decline, is what matters to the financial
*Based on our assumption for Q2 markets above all. Let us look at the situation from this
NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via Global Insight and BEA)
angle then.
This combined with the fact that businesses invested very From the cycle trough onward, the present recovery in
little during the recession, resulting in a very low ratio of U.S. consumption compares to those of 1991 and 2001.
business investment to GDP, explains why the recovery in However, it is very different in terms of its make-up.
IME is more robust this time around than the average Indeed, aggregate consumption has recovered despite an
recovery since the 1960s. This is the case even if we abnormally low level of car sales. These stand at the
exclude the recovery that followed the collapse of the tech same level as in 1982 although the population and the
bubble in 2002. Thus, businesses today constitute a major number of workers today are far greater than back then.
growth vector.
The shockwave that hit the auto industry was without a
Recovery less vigorous than usual? doubt extremely severe. However, this did not prevent
aggregate consumption from rapidly bouncing back into
Many analyses and economic letters these days are expansion territory. In other words, U.S. households are
claiming that the present recovery is less vigorous than buying fewer cars but spending more on other goods and
previous ones. Actually, this depends on which variables services.
are being analyzed and how they are interpreted.
As we have just seen, the recovery in IME is stronger than
previous ones on average. The same cannot be said for
2
July 23, 2010
4) Far fewer car sales Truly extraordinary
23 Units Still, we must admit that the current economic situation in
Difference of
22
21 5.7 million units
the United States is truly very different from most previous
20 cycles. The difference between productivity growth (hourly
19
18
output) and employment growth is huge, with the former
17.0
17 attaining record highs. As illustrated in Chart 6, this
16
15 dynamic is unprecedented in its magnitude. Strong
14
13
productivity growth today constitutes an engine of wealth
12 11.3 creation by virtue of the corporate profits it is generating.
11
10
However, it does not help new employment.
9
8
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
6) A rather unusual situation…
Productivity and employment growth
NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via Global Insight and BEA) 8
% (y/y)
7 Labour productivity
Domestic demand improving at last 6

5
4
Along a similar line of reasoning, many observers have 3
concluded that U.S. domestic demand was far weaker 2

1
than in previous economic recoveries. This analysis holds 0
if we consider only 2010Q1. However, if we take into -1
-2 Employment
account the data for Q2, it no longer flies (the official real -3
GDP data for Q2 will be published July 30 but we already -4
have two months of data available with which to evaluate -5

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
the quarter and even three in some cases).

5) Stronger domestic demand in Q2
U.S. domestic demand and NBFG projections Where monetary policy is concerned, the Federal
7
% (q/q, annualized) Reserve, too, is facing a novel situation. Owing to the
6 collapse of the housing bubble, its monetary policy has no
5
4 traction on residential investment.
3
2 As we can see in Chart 7, this is the first time ever that a
1
0
negative real federal funds rate does not trigger a rebound
-1 in residential real estate. This is exactly what happened
-2
-3
with business investment during the collapse of the tech
-4 bubble. Under such circumstances, we cannot expect a
-5
-6
traditional cyclical rebound.
-7
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 7) …for monetary policy as well
Real federal funds rate and residential investment
NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via Global Insight)
7
% (y/y) P.P. 6
As shown in Chart 5, in 2010Q2, domestic demand Real federal funds rate 5
4
registered its strongest growth since the beginning of 3
2006. We expect this demand to cool over the coming 2
1
quarters, to be sure, but it will nevertheless remain 20
15
0
relatively high throughout 2010. Not before next year will it 10

-1
-2
5
record more modest growth. 0
-5
-10
U.S. real GDP will expand about 3% in Q2, primarily -15 Residential investment
owing to a surge in imports of nearly 20%, which will -20
-25
inevitably detract from growth. International trade will thus -30
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
cast a veil over much stronger domestic demand growth,
with consumption jumping about 2.5% and business IME
soaring approximately 20%. This is why, all things
considered, we expect domestic demand growth to check
in this July 30 in the vicinity of 3.8%.
3
July 23, 2010
High hopes the current recovery so far has been generating job gains
more rapidly than did the recoveries of 1991 and 2001.
This said, we have high hopes that the U.S. economy will This is what ultimately will determine the future of the U.S.
grow about 3.5% in 2010. The key factor on which the recovery (Charts 8 and 9).
8) How is employment faring? 10) Who should we trust?

Confidence among households and business managers
Total employment Total employment excluding construction
80 Index Index 160
76 150
1.000 Index: 1 = at end of recessions 1.001 Index: 1 = at end of recessions 2009 72 Managers (L) 140
0.999 1.000 68 130

64 120
0.998 0.999
60 110
0.997 2009 0.998 1991 56 100
52 90
0.996 0.997
48 80
0.995 0.996 44 70
0.994 1991 0.995 40 60
36 50
0.993 0.994
32 40
Households (R)
0.992 2001 0.993 28 30
0.991 0.992 2001 24 20

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
0.990 0.991
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via Bloomberg)
NBFG Economy and Strategy Group, Global Insight

Certain other observers have argued that businesses will
U.S. economic cycle will ultimately ride going forward is its lose their “animal spirit” in the current economic cycle. If
capacity to create jobs. As already mentioned, there has so, why then are they once again more confident than
been no paucity of corporate profits so far. How the cycle household in these times of economic recovery and why
unfolds will depend on how businesses behave in future. were they less confident just before the recession (see
Chart 10)? Why then is the business IME cycle more
Employment reports are probably those that draw the robust than the average for all past recoveries if the U.S.
most media attention. In this regard, it is important to note economy, again according to certain observers, is on the
that, although the latest monthly report was disappointing verge of relapsing into recession?
in terms of private-sector job creation, on a quarterly basis
it was nevertheless interesting. At 1.6%, it represents the We are neither always optimistic nor always pessimistic.
strongest private-sector performance since 2006. Instead, as economic analysts, we seek to keep ahead of
Importantly, this should contribute to sustain consumption the cycle at all times, whether in periods of recession,
in the months ahead. recovery or expansion. In this regard, we have reason to
believe that good old Okun’s law (a positive correlation
9) Persistence still strong exists between employment and GDP growth) will hold
Quarterly private-sector employment growth
once again. As we can see from Chart 11, the law is
5 % (q/q) irrefutable.
4
3
11) Okun’s law
2
Real GDP and employment growth
1
0 9 % (y/y)
-1 8
-2 7
-3 6 Real GDP
-4 5
-5 4
-6 3
-7 2
-8 1
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
0
-1
NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via Global Insight and BEA) -2 Employment
-3
As mentioned earlier, the rebound in employment should -4

-5
have been more robust than what we have observed so 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
far given the severity of the job losses during the NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via Global Insight and BEA)
recession. Once again, the financial markets know, as do

we, that U.S. real GDP and employment fell sharply. We Real GDP growth need only surpass productivity growth
also know by how much. However, as far as the future of for job creation to occur. Seeing how labour productivity
the cycle and the direction of the markets are concerned, has reached new heights in the United States, chances
this question is already no longer relevant. The fact is that are relatively good that businesses will no longer be able
4
July 23, 2010
to crank up their production without increasing hours cooling of inflation and fears of a recession relapse have
worked and/or their number of employees. generated a wave of mortgage refinancing. The index of
home refinancing volume has soared 103% since April
Hence, beyond the normal monthly volatility that the
alone. This index should climb even further given that
different employment reports can present, we are hopeful
long-term mortgage rates have just struck an all-time low,
that the economic cycle (i.e., real GDP growth) will create
a situation that many households will no doubt want to
jobs in the United States going forward.
take advantage of. This, too, is a factor that should sustain
All is not bleak consumption.
All the more so that, notwithstanding the army of Data do not point to relapse
pessimists relentlessly reminding us that credit aggregates
Finally, the data regarding leading and coincident
are retreating and that consumers are deleveraging, there
indicators run counter to the scenario feared by a large
are other phenomena occurring that are conducive to
number of observers to the effect that the U.S. economy
continued growth.
risks dipping back into recession.
12) All is not bleak
Ratio of financial obligations to disposable personal income 14) No credible sign of recession relapse
Coincident and leading economic indicators
19.2 %
20 % (6 months)
18.8
16
Leading
18.4
12
18.0
8
17.6
4
17.2
0
16.8
-4
16.4 Coincident
-8
16.0
-12
15.6
-16
15.2
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 -20
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via Federal Reserve)

If we assume that the drastic decline in car sales is the

Although the leading indicator has certainly sagged
result not only of layoffs but also of households deciding to
somewhat since peaking, this is a normal phenomenon
hang on to their vehicles longer than before, the fact that
that occurs in every recovery. In addition, as it also takes
the financial obligations ratio of U.S. households has fallen
into account financial variables, the leading indicator is far
steeply comes as no surprise. The ratio now stands
more volatile than the coincident indicator. For its part, the
practically at its historical average. This means that many
coincident indicator, which is correlated with current GDP
households have already freed up some elbow room in
growth, continues to advance and is leagues away from a
their budget, a situation that does not point towards a drop
relapse scenario. In fact, as shown in Chart 14, an
in consumer spending.
economy falls into recession only when the coincident
13) New wave of mortgage refinancing indicator veers downward. Therefore, a combination such
Volume of mortgage refinancing (MBA) and 30-year fixed mortgage rate as the one prevailing at the moment, that is, a slightly
75 Index % 7.2 slower growing leading indicator in conjunction with an
Refinancing
70 7.0
accelerating coincident indicator, does not constitute a
65 6.8
60 6.6 sign that the U.S. economy risks relapsing into recession.
55 6.4
50
45
6.2
6.0
Conclusion
•
40 5.8
35 5.6 As at 2010Q2, consumption and profits were already
30 5.4
in expansion mode in the United States.
25 5.2
•
20 5.0
15 4.8 In 2010Q2, U.S. domestic demand will post its best
10 30-year rate 4.6 performance in four years.
5 4.4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
• Though disappointing relative to the magnitude of the
past downturn, private employment is nonetheless
There is one more important point that deserves attention. bouncing back faster than during the 1991 and 2001
The recent decline in interest rates in response to a recoveries.
5
July 23, 2010
• Growing profits, mounting real GDP and a high As you might easily have guessed, though the chances of
confidence level among business managers should a relapse are not yet nil, it is not the scenario that we are
contribute to generate further job creation. betting on for the U.S. economy. Instead, the U.S.
economy is actually approaching the threshold of
• Thanks to soft auto sales, consumer deleveraging and expansion.
the recent drop in mortgage rates, the financial
obligations ratio of U.S. households is already almost
back to its historical average for the past 30 years.
This bodes well for continued consumption growth.
• Finally, the dynamics of leading and coincident
indicators do not suggest an imminent contraction in
activity south of the border. Yanick Desnoyers – Assistant Chief Economist
514 879-3140
– yanick.desnoyers@fbn.ca
6
July 23, 2010
ECONOMIC INDICATORS REVIEW
by Marco Lettieri
Canada – On July 20, the Bank of Canada (BoC) raised its Canada: core CPI at 1.7% in June
Total and core inflation (Bank of Canada)
overnight rate 25 basis points to 0.75%. Despite the move, the
5.0
BoC adopted a more cautious tone regarding its growth % (y/y)
4.5
outlook. While recognizing that the global economic recovery 4.0
CPIX (1.7%)
was proceeding, it saw the policy response to the European 3.5
sovereign debt crisis as a drag on activity. Consequently, the 3.0

2.5
BoC now expected the Canadian economy to expand 3.5% in
2.0
2010 (down from 3.7%) and 2.9% in 2011 (down from 3.1%). 1.5
1.0
In June, headline CPI inflation slid to 1.0% from 1.4% in May.
0.5
The core CPI dipped to 1.7% year over year from 1.8% the 0.0
Bank of Canada
CPIX target range
previous month. On a monthly basis, headline CPI sank 0.2% -0.5 Total (1.0%)
(seasonally adjusted), the same rate at which it decreased in -1.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
May. Core inflation was up 0.1% on the month, the same pace
at which it increased the month before. We can expect the BoC
to pursue its campaign of interest rate normalization despite
softness in the inflation numbers.
Canada: second consecutive monthly drop in retail sales
Nominal and real retail sales (monthly rate of change)
In May, retail sales sagged 0.2%, registering a second
2.5 % (m/m)
consecutive monthly drop. The decline came after the worst
2.0
contraction in sales since 1998 excluding the last recession 1.5
period. Sales pulled back in 6 of 11 retail industries with over 1.0
48% of the retreat due to motor vehicles and parts (-0.5%). 0.5
Excluding this segment, retail sales slipped 0.1%. Volume 0.0

-0.5
retail sales were up (+0.4%) but not enough to reverse April’s
-1.0
losses (-2.1%). However, sales prospects remain good for the
-1.5
months ahead in the light of the healthy Canadian labour -2.0
market environment. -2.5
-3.0
Again in May, wholesale sales edged lower (-0.1%) after Volume Nominal
-3.5
slumping 0.2% one month earlier. The decrease was a result -4.0
2007 2008 2009 2010
of a 29.5% drop in agricultural supplies on the month. The
underlying activity actually fared better than headline numbers
suggested, as 6 of 7 subsectors advanced on the month.
United States – In June, existing-home sales decreased United States: existing-home sales pull back in June
U.S. existing-home sales
5.1% to 5.37M. Despite the sharp decline on the month, sales
Units (millions)
still managed to exceed market expectations. Housing starts 7.4
7.2
were down as well, falling 5.0% to 549K for a second 7.0
consecutive monthly drop. A significant portion of the current 6.8
6.6
weakness in the data is attributable to the termination of 6.4
government programs intended to stimulate activity in the 6.2

6.0
industry. On a more comforting note, building permits 5.8
5.6
registered an increase of 2.1%, which suggests that the
5.4
housing sector should not weaken further in the months ahead. 5.2
5.0
4.8
4.6
4.4
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via Global Insight)
July 23, 2010 7

THINGS TO WATCH – Canada & US
Economic releases & events Earnings announcements
Time Country Release Period Previous Consensus NBF Company Time Qtr Cons.
Estimate Estimate EPS
10:00 US New Home Sales JUN 300K 315K 295K FMC Technologies Inc Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.71
Roper Industries Inc Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.74
Legg Mason Inc 16:00 Q1 2011 0.32
Plum Creek Timber Aft-mkt Q2 2010 0.15
Fluor Corp Aft-mkt Q2 2010 0.71
Monday Range Resources Corp Aft-mkt Q2 2010 0.11
Masco Corp Aft-mkt Q2 2010 0.13
Jul 26 Lorillard Inc Q2 2010 1.61
9:00 US S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind MAY 144.6 -- Talisman Energy Inc Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.11
9:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY MAY 3.81% 3.80% CGI Group Inc Bef-mkt Q3 2010 0.29
10:00 US Consumer Confidence JUL 52.9 51.0 51.0 Rogers Comm. Inc Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.68
Industrial Alliance 10:00 Q2 2010 0.67
Capital Power Income Aft-mkt Q2 2010 0.12
Tuesday Teck Resources Ltd Aft-mkt Q2 2010 0.63
IESI-BFC Ltd Aft-mkt Q2 2010 0.22
Jul 27 Cott Corp Q2 2010 0.27
Inmet Mining Corp Q2 2010 1.21
Occidental Petroleum Corp Q2 2010 1.35
Lockheed Martin Corp Bef-mkt Q2 2010 1.78
Viacom Inc Bef-mkt Q3 2010 0.66
7:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Jul-23 7.60% -- Sherritt International Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.23
8:30 US Durable Goods Orders JUN -1.10% 1.00% Husky Energy Inc Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.45
8:30 US Durables Ex Transportation JUN 0.90% 0.40% Canadian Pacific Rail. 7:30 Q2 2010 0.84
9:00 CA Teranet/National Bank HPI MAY 12.90% -- 13.20% FirstService Corp 7:30 Q2 2010 0.51
14:00 US Fed's Beige Book Jul-28 Lundin Mining Corp 9:30 Q2 2010 0.12
Wednesday Goldcorp Inc Aft-mkt Q2 2010 0.29
Agnico-Eagle Mines Aft-mkt Q2 2010 0.41
Jul 28 Enbridge Inc Q2 2010 0.58
Bell Aliant Regional Q2 2010 0.55
TMX Group Inc Q2 2010 0.68
Canadian Utilities Ltd Q2 2010 0.66
ConocoPhillips 8:30 Q2 2010 1.57
8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Jul-24 464K 460K Suncor Energy Inc 2:30 Q2 2010 0.36
RioCan REIT Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.35
Eldorado Gold Corp Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.08
TransAlta Corp Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.10
TransForce Inc Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.17
Thursday Barrick Gold Corp Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.71
Thomson Reuters Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.49
Jul 29 Potash Corp of Sask. 6:00 Q2 2010 1.21
MacDonald Dettwiler 16:30 Q2 2010 0.75
Mullen Group Ltd 17:00 Q2 2010 0.07
Fairfax Financial Aft-mkt Q2 2010 7.48
Cenovus Energy Inc Q2 2010 0.40
8:30 US GDP QoQ (Annualized) 2Q A 2.70% 2.50% 3.00% Centerra Gold Inc Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.04
8:30 US Personal Consumption 2Q A 3.00% 2.40% Brookfield Properties Corp Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.28
8:30 CA Gross Domestic Product MoM MAY 0.00% 0.20% 0.20% George Weston Ltd Q2 2010 0.90
9:55 US U. of Michigan Confidence JUL F 66.5 67.0 Atco Ltd Q2 2010 0.95
McKesson Corp Bef-mkt Q1 2011 1.07
Friday Simon Property Group Inc Bef-mkt Q2 2010 1.34
Public Service Enterprise Group Inc 8:45 Q2 2010 0.64
Jul 30 Chevron Corp Q2 2010 2.43
Merck & Co Inc Q2 2010 0.83
American Electric Power Co Inc Q2 2010 0.68
Source: Bloomberg
July 23, 2010 8

ECONOMIC TABLES
TABLE 1 - NORTH AMERICAN FINANCIAL INDICATORS
July 23, 2010
Monthly Growth (%) Annualized Growth Cumulated since
Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since beginning of year
Otherwise Indicated Period Level Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.
UNITED STATES
MONETARY AGGREGATES ($Billions)
M1 * Jun 2010 1723 0.9 0.3 -0.7 1.8 4.4 4.6 6.7 15.2
M2 * Jun 2010 8612 0.4 1.0 -0.3 2.0 1.4 1.8 1.8 9.3
CREDIT MEASURES
Consumer Credit May 2010 2415 -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 -3.6 -4.0 -3.9 -4.0 -0.5
Mortgage (Banks) * Jun 2010 3679 -0.6 -0.4 0.2 -3.2 -3.9 -4.7 -3.3 5.3
Business * Jun 2010 1235 0.0 -0.8 -0.2 -7.4 -17.7 -17.1 -19.3 1.8
CANADA
MONETARY AGGREGATES
M2+ gross * May 2010 1327 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.8 1.9 3.6 4.3 13.2
Personal Deposits (Banks) (2) * Jun 2010 659 0.7 0.6 0.6 4.6 2.4 3.7 4.3 14.9
CREDIT MEASURES
Consumer * May 2010 461 0.3 0.8 0.4 8.0 9.4 9.0 9.3 7.6
Mortgages * May 2010 988 1.0 0.4 0.6 7.6 7.0 7.4 7.0 8.4
*
Short - Term Business Loans Jun 2010 324 0.2 0.4 -0.7 -3.8 -11.3 -11.5 -14.5 3.2
Business (S.T. + L.T.) * Jun 2010 1208 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.2
*
Private (Consumer+Business) May 2010 2656 0.4 0.4 0.3 5.0 4.4 4.4 4.0 5.9
Federal Debt * Jun 2010 562 -1.5 1.8 0.2 8.4 6.5 9.0 11.9 26.7
INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATES
Reference Last 1 week 2 w. Average of last Thursdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w.
Thursday day ago ago 13 w. 26 w. 52 w. ago ago ago
UNITED STATES
INTEREST RATES
Federal Funds Target Rate * 22 Jul 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Prime Rate * 22 Jul 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
3-month Treasury Bills * 22 Jul 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.11 0.16 0.06 0.19
2-year Bonds * 22 Jul 0.56 0.60 0.62 0.73 0.84 0.88 1.02 0.83 1.05
5-year Bonds * 22 Jul 1.67 1.76 1.81 2.02 2.23 2.30 2.54 2.35 2.58
10-year Bonds * 22 Jul 2.93 2.99 3.03 3.24 3.49 3.50 3.78 3.59 3.71
30-year Bonds * 22 Jul 3.95 3.98 4.01 4.16 4.41 4.38 4.64 4.50 4.60
Corporate High-yield (Lehman) * 22 Jul 8.51 8.69 8.99 8.94 8.84 9.47 8.08 8.71 11.92
Corporate Invest. Grade (Lehman) * 22 Jul 4.06 4.15 4.29 4.38 4.41 4.56 4.28 4.34 5.69
SPREADS
Corp. High-yield - Treas. 10y. * 22 Jul 5.58 5.70 5.96 5.70 5.34 5.97 4.30 5.12 8.21
Corp. Invest. grade - Treas. 10y. * 22 Jul 1.13 1.16 1.26 1.14 0.91 1.07 0.50 0.75 1.98
Treasuries 30y. - 3-m. T.B. * 22 Jul 3.79 3.83 3.86 4.02 4.27 4.27 4.48 4.44 4.41
EXCHANGE RATE
Major currencies, traded-weighted * 16 Jul 76.59 76.42 76.74 78.40 77.14 75.62 76.09 74.81 75.23
CANADA
INTEREST RATES
Prime Rate * 22 Jul 2.75 2.50 2.50 2.42 2.34 2.29 2.25 2.25 2.25
Target overnight rate * 22 Jul 0.75 0.50 0.50 0.42 0.34 0.29 0.25 0.25 0.25
30-day commercial paper * 22 Jul 0.88 0.83 0.61 0.59 0.49 0.42 0.46 0.34 0.33
3-month Treasury Bills * 22 Jul 0.62 0.57 0.51 0.49 0.36 0.28 0.38 0.16 0.23
1-year Treasury Bills * 22 Jul 1.12 1.18 1.07 1.14 0.97 0.77 1.30 0.57 0.58
5-year Bonds * 22 Jul 2.41 2.50 2.47 2.64 2.70 2.66 3.20 2.54 2.52
10-year Bonds * 22 Jul 3.21 3.24 3.20 3.34 3.43 3.43 3.72 3.42 3.45
30-year Bonds * 22 Jul 3.77 3.77 3.73 3.79 3.92 3.94 4.06 4.01 4.02
SPREADS
Prime - 30d. Commercial paper * 22 Jul 1.87 1.67 1.89 1.83 1.85 1.88 1.79 1.91 1.92
Long Term - Short Term * 22 Jul 3.15 3.20 3.22 3.30 3.57 3.66 3.68 3.85 3.79
CANADA UNITED STATES SPREADS
3-month T-Bills * 22 Jul 0.46 0.42 0.36 0.35 0.22 0.17 0.22 0.10 0.04
Long Term Bonds * 22 Jul -0.17 -0.21 -0.29 -0.38 -0.49 -0.44 -0.58 -0.49 -0.58
EXCHANGE RATE
US$ /CDN$ (GTIS) * 22 Jul 0.9640 0.9632 0.9586 0.9621 0.9664 0.9531 0.9997 0.9504 0.9173
Trade-weighted (1990=100) G-10 * 22 Jul 109.4 109.1 109.4 109.9 110.0 108.0 113.9 107.8 103.9
STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%) Since

Reference Past Prev. Month beginning of year
Thursday Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec.
Dow Jones (U.S.) * 22 Jul 10322.3 0.3 1.0 -8.5 -7.3 1.5 16.2 -1.4 4.2
S&P 500 (U.S.) * 22 Jul 1093.7 -0.1 0.7 -10.0 -9.5 0.2 14.6 -2.2 9.5
NASDAQ (U.S.) * 22 Jul 2245.9 -0.7 1.5 -11.5 -10.8 1.8 16.6 -0.3 25.7
S&P/TSX (Can.) * 22 Jul 11667.8 -1.1 2.4 -5.3 -4.1 2.9 11.8 0.3 26.5
* Update (1) Commercial Banks (2) Not seasonnally adjusted
July 23, 2010 9

ECONOMIC TABLES
TABLE 2 - UNITED STATES ECONOMIC INDICATORS
July 23, 2010
Monthly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%) Cumulated since
Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.
Index of 12 Leading Indicators * Jun 2010 -0.2 0.5 -0.1 5.1 8.9 7.0 8.4 9.8 -3.3
Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) Jun 2010 52.9 62.7 57.7 57.8 54.8 53.1 49.3 54.8 39.1
I.S.M. Manufacturing Index (level) Jun 2010 56.2 59.7 60.4 58.8 58.5 55.7 45.3 58.5 39.4
- Non-manufacturing (level) Jun 2010 58.1 61.1 60.3 59.8 57.8 54.5 48.8 57.8 44.7
DOMESTIC DEMAND
Sales new autos & light trucks (000,000) Jun 2010 11.1 11.6 11.2 11.3 11.1 11.2 9.7 11.1 9.6
Retail Sales Jun 2010 -0.5 -1.1 0.3 4.1 7.0 1.6 4.8 6.2 -9.7
- Motor vehicle Jun 2010 -2.3 -0.6 0.5 11.4 7.1 3.7 6.8 9.3 -20.8
- Other Jun 2010 -0.1 -1.2 0.3 2.7 7.0 1.2 4.4 5.6 -6.4
Consumer Spending: Total ($ current) May 2010 0.2 0.0 0.6 4.2 4.3 1.8 4.6 4.0 -1.4
Total ($ constant) May 2010 0.3 0.0 0.4 3.4 2.5 0.9 2.6 2.0 -1.6
Personal Income May 2010 0.4 0.5 0.4 4.4 3.3 -0.3 1.6 2.0 -1.6
Personal Savings Rate (3) May 2010 4.0 3.8 3.3 3.7 3.7 3.8 6.4 3.7 4.5
New Orders May 2010 -1.4 1.0 1.7 13.3 17.0 -2.5 14.4 15.2 -24.1
- Non-Defence Capital Goods exc. Aircraft May 2010 3.9 -2.8 6.7 31.4 15.8 -3.7 19.2 15.9 -26.3
Unfilled Orders May 2010 0.2 0.4 -0.1 2.6 -3.5 -9.2 -3.2 -5.9 -5.3
Business Inventories May 2010 0.1 0.4 0.7 5.9 1.2 -9.4 -1.5 -4.8 -6.4
Inventories / Shipments Businesses May 2010 1.24 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.25 1.28 1.41 1.24 1.44
Manufacturers' Shipments May 2010 -1.3 0.6 2.6 10.3 14.2 -3.6 12.5 10.8 -20.0
Manufacturers' Inventories May 2010 -0.4 0.6 0.5 6.3 2.3 -8.9 -0.9 -3.7 -6.9
Inventories / Shipments Manuf. May 2010 1.25 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.25 1.28 1.42 1.25 1.43
Housing Starts (000) (1) * Jun 2010 549 578 679 602 610 592 583 610 533
New Home Sales May 2010 -32.7 14.7 12.1 35.5 -14.4 -4.4 -18.3 3.6 -36.8
Existing Home Sales * Jun 2010 -5.6 -1.6 7.7 42.5 -9.3 13.3 8.5 12.2 -3.7
PRODUCTION
Industrial Production Jun 2010 0.1 1.3 0.3 6.6 6.9 -0.9 8.2 4.9 -12.2
- Consumer Goods Jun 2010 -0.6 1.9 -0.9 1.0 4.7 1.0 6.8 4.9 -8.8
- Hitech goods Jun 2010 1.2 1.4 1.5 18.6 15.5 6.7 19.8 19.2 -19.1
EXTERNAL AND FISCAL BALANCES

Exports May 2010 2.4 -0.7 3.8 18.5 22.1 -0.9 21.0 17.7 -18.5
Imports May 2010 2.9 -0.4 2.9 23.1 26.7 -5.5 29.1 21.4 -28.3
Merch. Trade Balance ($ billions) May 2010 -42.3 -40.3 -40.0 -40.9 -39.2 -35.8 -24.9 -39.6 -28.7
Real merchandise trade balance May 2010 -46.0 -44.2 -44.1 -44.8 -43.3 -41.4 -36.3 -43.4 -41.4
Federal budget balance last 12 months (2) Jun 2010 -1333.5 -1359.4 -1413.1 -1255.2 -616.0 -753.8
INFLATION AND COSTS

Consumer Prices Jun 2010 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.7 1.2 1.0 1.1 2.1 -0.6
- Excluding Food and Energy Jun 2010 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.6 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.8
PCE Deflator exc. Food and Energy May 2010 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.7
Industrial Prices, Finished Goods Jun 2010 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 5.7 1.3 2.7 4.8 -3.1
Average Hourly Earnings (4) Jun 2010 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.3 3.4
Industrial Capacity Utilization Rate Jun 2010 74.1 74.1 73.1 73.8 73.1 71.8 68.2 73.1 69.5
Median Price, Single-Family Homes (5) * Jun 2010 5.6 1.2 1.8 30.3 -3.3 -4.2 1.3 0.4 -15.2
LABOUR MARKET
New Jobs (000) (6) Jun 2010 -125 433 313 207 147 -14 -170 882 -3688
- Manufacturing (000) Jun 2010 9 32 38 26 23 -9 -112 136 -1040
- Services (000) Jun 2010 -117 420 246 183 135 30 356 811 -1897
Average weekly hours (6) Jun 2010 0.1 0.0 0.5 3.3 1.6 -3.9 1.0 -1.1 -6.9
Civilian Unemployment Rate (7) Jun 2010 9.5 9.7 9.9 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.5 9.7 8.7
NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth Rates

QUARTERLY INDICATORS Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q1 2009 2009 2008 2007
GDP Chained 2005 dollars 2.7 5.6 2.2 -0.7 -6.4 -5.4 -2.4 0.4 2.1
Consumption 3.0 1.6 2.8 -0.9 0.6 -3.1 -0.6 -0.2 2.6
Residential Construction -10.3 3.7 18.9 -23.2 -38.2 -23.2 -20.5 -22.9 -18.5
Business Investment 2.2 5.3 -5.9 -9.6 -39.2 -19.4 -17.7 1.6 6.2
- Machinery and Equipment 11.4 19.0 1.5 -4.9 -36.4 -25.9 -16.6 -2.6 2.6
Government Spending -1.9 -1.3 2.7 6.7 -2.6 1.2 1.8 3.1 1.7
Exports 11.3 22.8 17.8 -4.1 -29.9 -19.5 -9.6 5.4 8.7
Imports 14.8 15.8 21.3 -14.7 -36.4 -16.7 -13.9 -3.2 2.0
Change in Inventories (1) (2) 41.2 -19.7 -139.2 -160.2 -113.9 -37.4 -108.2 -25.9 19.5
GDP Deflator 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.9 0.0 1.2 2.1 2.9
Personal Disposable Income 2.1 0.0 -3.6 6.2 0.2 3.4 0.8 0.5 2.2
Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 2009 2008 2007
Labour Productivity (4) 2.8 6.3 7.8 7.6 0.9 2.2 3.7 2.0 1.8
Unit Labor Costs (4) -1.3 -7.8 -7.6 0.1 -5.0 2.2 -1.9 1.0 2.4
Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 2009 2008 2007
Current Account (current $) -436.0 -403.6 -390.0 -337.8 -382.3 -590.6 -378.4 -668.9 -718.1
as a % of GDP -3.0 -2.8 -2.7 -2.4 -2.7 -4.1 -2.7 -4.6 -5.1
Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 2009 2008 2007
Corporate Profits (8) 35.9 36.0 50.7 15.7 22.8 -64.4 -3.8 -11.8 -4.1
as a % of GDP 10.9 10.2 9.5 8.7 8.3 7.8 9.2 9.1 9.3
* Update
(1) Annual Rate (5) Existing Homes Sold
(2) $ Billions (6) Non-Farm Payroll Survey
(3) Personal Savings as a % of Personal Disposable Income (7) Household Survey
(4) Nonfarm Business (8) Current $ and before taxes
July 23, 2010 10

ECONOMIC TABLES
TABLE 3 - CANADIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
July 23, 2010
Index of Leading Indicators (Stat. Can.) Jun 2010 1.0 1.1 1.1 13.5 13.3 3.1 13.3 9.2 -5.3
DOMESTIC DEMAND
New motor vehicle sales (000) May 2010 126.5 126.2 131.6 128.1 129.9 128.5 1541.9 650.5 593.3
Retail Sales ($ current) * May 2010 -0.2 -2.2 2.3 5.9 5.9 2.0 5.2 6.7 -5.3
- Motor vehicle and parts dealers * May 2010 -0.5 -5.0 4.4 6.9 3.4 4.0 5.4 10.0 -14.1
- Other * May 2010 -0.1 -1.4 1.8 5.7 6.6 1.5 5.2 5.9 -2.1
Retail Sales ($ constant) * May 2010 0.4 -2.1 2.4 6.8 4.3 2.2 4.5 5.2 -3.7
Manufacturer's Shipments ($ current) May 2010 0.4 0.4 1.4 9.3 12.5 -6.5 16.5 10.2 -19.2
New Orders May 2010 2.5 0.6 -1.1 4.0 21.2 -6.7 33.8 17.1 -25.0
- Durables May 2010 6.7 0.1 -2.5 3.6 33.0 -10.0 68.7 26.1 -33.9
Unfilled Orders May 2010 1.3 -0.4 -0.5 2.7 -7.0 -18.8 -9.0 -17.9 6.2
Manufacturer's Inventories May 2010 -0.7 0.1 -0.9 -3.9 -5.6 -9.7 -6.8 -9.0 -0.7
Inventories / Shipments Ratio May 2010 1.30 1.32 1.32 1.31 1.34 1.40 1.63 1.33 1.61
Manufacturer's Shipments ($ constant) May 2010 0.4 0.1 1.6 10.3 12.4 -4.0 14.6 9.3 -19.3
Housing Starts (000) (1) * Jun 2010 192.8 198.9 206.3 199.3 198.8 183.3 143.4 198.8 129.9
Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -8.2 -10.8 -3.9 -43.4 -14.2 26.4 -18.0 18.8 -14.1
Number of personal bankrupties (2) Mar 2010 8.7 -9.6 -8.7 -67.5 -29.9 21.5 -15.7 -9.8 31.0
Number of commercial bankrupties (2) Mar 2010 -2.3 -3.8 -7.1 -56.1 -28.6 -13.3 -27.2 -23.8 -10.2
PRODUCTION
Real Domestic Product Apr 2010 0.0 0.6 0.2 4.7 4.8 -1.1 3.3 2.4 -3.0
- Manufacturing Apr 2010 -0.3 1.7 1.2 15.1 10.8 -7.0 7.1 4.1 -12.6
- Construction Apr 2010 0.1 0.8 -0.7 5.4 9.1 -4.2 5.5 3.6 -6.2
Services Apr 2010 0.0 0.3 0.2 3.0 3.6 1.3 3.0 3.0 -0.6
EXTERNAL, FISCAL AND EXCHANGE BALANCES

Exports May 2010 5.2 -1.3 -0.4 5.4 19.9 -13.8 21.3 8.1 -23.3
Imports May 2010 5.7 -1.4 2.7 18.5 15.2 -8.8 17.4 6.8 -12.3
- Capital Goods May 2010 6.6 0.1 1.5 26.1 1.2 -13.6 4.8 -7.2 -2.7
Merch. Trade Balance ($ millions) May 2010 -503 -330 -356 -396 88 -225 -1,373 71 -303
Change in Official Reserves May 2010 -816 174 -673 -438 -66 930 11,157 1,670 11,973
Level (US$): 56,027 Fiscal year
Fed. budget balance last 12 months ($ billions) * May 2010 -43.9 -45.4 -47.0 -15.5 -4.4 -7.5
INFLATION AND COSTS

Consumer Prices * Jun 2010 -0.1 0.3 0.3 2.6 1.8 0.7 1.0 1.5 0.6
- Excluding Food and Energy * Jun 2010 -0.1 0.3 0.4 2.3 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.3
- Core inflation (4) * Jun 2010 -0.1 0.3 0.3 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9
Average Hourly Earnings (2) Jun 2010 -0.6 -0.4 0.1 -1.8 2.8 2.5 1.7 2.1 4.0
Price of New Housing icluding land May 2010 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.8 3.7 -0.7 2.9 1.6 -2.2
Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -2.5 -1.3 0.7 -3.6 2.9 14.4 4.9 14.0 -5.0
Industrial Prices (1992=100) May 2010 0.3 0.4 -0.4 0.9 1.8 -3.1 1.4 -0.1 -0.9
LABOUR MARKET
Labour Force Jun 2010 0.3 0.2 0.5 3.2 1.4 0.9 1.5 1.1 0.8
Job creation (000) Jun 2010 93.2 24.7 108.7 75.5 51.4 31.0 372.3 308.4 -252.9
- Manufacturing Jun 2010 -14.3 2.7 -20.6 -10.7 -4.5 -1.9 -22.6 -27.1 -181.3
- Services Jun 2010 103.4 32.4 106.6 80.8 48.3 27.8 333.4 289.7 19.9
- Full Time Jun 2010 49.0 67.2 43.9 53.4 34.6 28.7 345.0 207.5 -336.7
- Part Time Jun 2010 44.2 -42.5 64.8 22.2 16.8 2.3 27.3 100.9 83.8
Unemployment Rate Jun 2010 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.6 8.1 8.1
NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth Rates

QUARTERLY INDICATORS Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 2009 2008 2007
GDP Chained (2002) $ 6.1 4.9 0.9 -2.8 -7.0 -3.1 -2.5 0.5 2.2
Consumption 4.4 3.9 3.8 2.2 -1.1 -2.7 0.4 2.9 4.6
Business Investments 0.9 -9.8 1.1 -22.0 -41.6 -18.7 -19.9 3.4 3.3
-Machinery and Equipment 7.5 -8.1 17.6 -15.9 -41.3 -29.9 -20.3 -0.9 4.2
Residential Construction 23.6 26.3 9.1 5.9 -21.5 -24.5 -8.2 -3.7 2.8
Government Expenditures 1.9 6.9 6.6 1.5 3.1 4.6 3.5 3.9 2.7
Final Domestic Demand 4.7 5.0 5.3 -0.2 -7.6 -4.8 -1.8 2.8 4.0
Exports 12.0 13.8 9.5 -15.9 -31.5 -15.2 -14.2 -4.6 1.2
Imports 14.1 12.4 27.3 -1.9 -38.7 -24.9 -13.9 1.2 5.9
Change in Inventories (1) 8.2 -1.2 -1.6 -1.8 -6.9 5.6 -2.9 9.0 12.2
Real Disposible Income 1.1 0.1 0.7 2.0 -0.2 7.5 1.1 3.7 4.0
Personal savings Rate 2.8 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.2 4.7 4.5 3.6 2.8
GDP Price Deflator 4.4 4.4 3.8 1.0 -6.2 -12.9 -2.1 4.0 3.2
Corporate Profits (nominal) 39.1 36.8 44.5 -32.4 -55.3 -68.7 -32.3 8.0 1.9
as a % of GDP 10.8 10.2 9.6 8.9 9.8 11.5 9.6 13.6 13.1
Indust. Capacity Utilization Rate 74.2 71.3 68.6 68.1 70.2 75.5 69.5 77.9 82.4
Labour Productivity, Business Sector 3.1 4.7 -0.8 0.4 0.0 0.8 0.4 -0.9 0.0
Unit Labour Cost, Business Sector -1.6 -0.3 -0.3 0.6 4.0 4.7 2.3 4.0 3.5
Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 2009 2008 2007
Current Account (current $) (1) -31.3 -40.8 -55.1 -49.8 -28.4 -30.2 -43.5 6.9 12.8
as a % of GDP -2.0 -2.6 -3.6 -3.3 -1.9 -1.9 -2.8 0.5 0.8
* Update
(1) Annual Rate, $ billions (4) C.P.I. excluding the 8 most volatile components and the effect
(2) Not Seasonally Adjusted of indirect taxes
(3) Current and before taxes
July 23, 2010 11

ECONOMIC TABLES
Economic and Strategy Team
TABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
July 23, 2010
QUEBEC
DOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE
Retail Sales * May 2010 -1.8 -3.5 3.1 4.2 6.8 3.3 4.4 7.6 -3.2
Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 -0.8 1.1 0.1 -1.2 6.5 -6.1 12.2 5.4 -14.9
Housing Starts (000) (2) Jun 2010 54.2 50.7 52.9 52.6 52.6 49.9 38.2 52.6 40.7
W ages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.1 -0.6 0.9 1.1 3.8 1.8 3.0 2.9 1.6
Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 -2.3 -3.2 13.4 18.9 11.0 -14.6 4.4 -2.8 -14.0
Number of personal bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 11.1 2.2 -15.6 -64.5 -26.1 14.1 -17.2 -12.9 21.7
Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 10.0 -8.4 -14.9 -46.6 -23.8 -18.0 -26.7 -28.7 5.5
PRICES
Consumer Price Index (1) * Jun 2010 -0.1 0.1 0.3 2.1 1.1 1.1 0.4 1.5 0.4
Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jun 2010 -1.7 0.4 -0.3 -1.5 1.9 2.5 1.6 2.0 4.7
Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) May 2010 0.4 0.0 0.8 4.6 3.3 2.7 3.0 2.7 3.9
Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -3.3 -0.5 3.6 2.6 6.4 8.7 6.4 9.7 1.0
LABOR MARKET
Job creation (000) Jun 2010 30.4 -5.3 35.0 20.0 13.6 7.4 88.7 81.3 -25.3
Unemployment rate Jun 2010 7.8 8.0 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.3 8.7 8.0 8.4
Participation rate Jun 2010 65.7 65.4 65.5 65.5 65.2 65.1 65.6 65.2 65.5
ONTARIO
Retail Sales * May 2010 0.1 -1.4 3.4 11.7 5.2 1.9 5.8 6.1 -4.6
Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 1.5 -0.1 1.1 10.4 15.2 -5.0 22.5 14.8 -21.9
W ages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.5 0.1 0.9 5.1 4.7 -0.3 2.7 2.4 -0.7
Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 5.5 -11.3 20.1 89.2 19.5 -10.0 31.9 12.8 -24.6
Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 -9.1 -3.4 0.7 -70.0 -26.8 -7.0 -22.6 -17.9 -22.0
PRICES
Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -3.2 -0.1 -2.5 -9.9 9.9 14.0 5.6 15.5 -2.6
LABOR MARKET
Job creation (000) Jun 2010 60.3 17.7 40.5 39.5 27.7 16.7 200.4 166.2 -155.0
Unemployment rate Jun 2010 8.3 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.9 9.0 9.4 8.9 8.9
NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR

Retail Sales * May 2010 -1.7 -3.8 3.3 6.4 4.0 4.2 2.1 6.6 0.4
Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 0.6 41.8 49.0 177.3 -22.6 -13.1 74.0 11.3 -42.8
Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -3.8 -3.6 -5.5 -27.2 17.2 8.2 6.4 18.6 -10.7
W ages and Salaries Mar 2010 -0.2 1.2 0.6 4.9 3.3 4.0 -1.6 2.7 6.3
Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 17.8 33.1 0.8 66.8 -27.5 -35.3 -6.0 -4.1 -33.7
Number of personal bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 1.6 23.0 -19.1 -53.0 -33.7 17.9 -16.3 5.5 -1.6
Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 #DIV/0! -100.0 100.0 -87.0 -21.0 21.4 100.0 -33.3 -47.1
PRICES
Consumer Price Index (1) * Jun 2010 0.0 0.2 -0.1 1.7 3.1 1.2 1.2 2.4 0.6
Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jun 2010 1.2 -1.7 -1.7 -4.6 8.6 4.9 7.5 6.0 3.9
Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -1.7 0.3 1.0 6.7 21.4 12.8 9.1 14.9 20.4
LABOR MARKET
Job creation (000) Jun 2010 -8.1 7.6 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 4.4 1.6 -2.1
Unemployment Jun 2010 14.7 13.8 15.0 14.5 14.8 15.4 15.6 14.8 15.1
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

Retail Sales * May 2010 -2.2 -1.7 2.8 5.8 8.8 2.8 5.5 7.7 -2.3
Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 -7.7 -2.7 7.1 0.3 -13.3 -9.1 -15.4 -12.9 -0.2
Housing Starts (000) (2) Jun 2010 1.1 1.5 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.7
Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 6.8 -4.3 0.7 40.9 31.3 3.0 21.4 11.7 4.3
W ages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.4 0.6 0.4 2.1 -0.2 4.0 1.1 2.4 4.6
Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 39.3 -18.8 37.3 79.2 -41.7 -10.5 4.1 -17.6 5.3
Number of personal bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 -23.7 -25.5 21.4 -45.0 -0.8 15.6 -34.1 5.4 34.9
Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 100.0 0.0 -66.7 -93.8 -36.0 92.9 0.0 0.0 33.3
PRICES
Consumer Price Index (1) * Jun 2010 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.6 2.3 -0.3
Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) May 2010 0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -3.7 -2.2 0.3 -1.6 -1.0 0.6
Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -7.2 -21.4 23.6 6.9 5.0 5.9 -7.5 4.7 4.9
LABOR MARKET
Job creation (000) Jun 2010 0.3 -1.9 0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.1 1.6 -0.2 0.5
July 23, 2010 12

ECONOMIC TABLES

TABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A4)
July 23, 2010
NOVA SCOTIA
Retail Sales * May 2010 -1.7 -2.0 2.2 8.2 5.7 4.4 4.2 7.9 -2.6
Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 2.9 1.1 5.1 23.0 3.5 -7.8 4.7 4.3 -15.5
Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 3.4 -8.3 -5.0 -16.1 -2.3 8.0 -5.2 11.6 -18.7
W ages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.7 1.3 0.1 6.9 3.6 2.1 3.8 3.4 2.0
Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 9.8 0.3 13.3 31.4 -3.2 -18.2 7.8 -4.4 -23.0
Number of personal bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 10.5 -4.1 -7.8 -62.5 -18.9 15.1 7.7 5.0 17.5
Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 -25.0 -33.3 -29.4 -35.4 -58.1 -7.3 -45.5 -10.3 -34.1
PRICES
Consumer Price Index (1) * Jun 2010 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.7 2.2 -0.4
Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jun 2010 -0.6 -1.2 -0.7 -2.9 8.0 4.0 3.6 4.1 6.0
Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 0.0 -2.1 -0.2 -16.0 7.8 7.3 6.0 9.3 0.9
LABOR MARKET
Job creation (000) Jun 2010 0.4 3.5 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.5 5.5 5.7 -1.0
NEW BRUNSWICK
Retail Sales * May 2010 1.2 -2.9 0.6 -0.2 4.7 4.1 5.5 7.4 -0.8
Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 -5.3 11.3 1.5 18.6 45.9 0.0 23.2 26.7 -27.5
Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 10.8 -14.6 -10.3 -50.0 -6.1 2.0 -6.2 4.7 -13.8
Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 23.8 1.3 -1.2 14.3 64.1 1.8 45.2 39.9 -28.2
Number of personal bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 0.0 -0.5 -8.3 -66.0 -28.9 23.7 5.8 7.5 22.2
Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 -25.0 166.7 -72.7 -91.0 -14.8 -42.2 50.0 -37.0 -42.6
PRICES
Consumer Price Index (1) * Jun 2010 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.7 1.0 2.6 -0.1
Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jun 2010 0.2 -1.4 -0.4 -6.7 1.6 3.4 0.8 1.9 4.9
Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 0.4 0.5 1.4 10.5 0.6 6.0 2.8 3.8 4.2
LABOR MARKET
Job creation (000) Jun 2010 -4.4 -1.3 0.8 -1.6 -0.6 -0.4 -5.1 -3.8 -1.4
MANITOBA
Retail Sales * May 2010 0.6 -2.2 1.0 2.1 5.5 4.0 6.3 7.3 -3.3
Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 -0.5 -3.8 5.5 6.1 -4.9 -12.4 -7.7 -8.1 -5.0
Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -4.6 -6.8 5.8 4.8 -2.8 4.6 -2.9 5.5 -9.7
W ages and Salaries Mar 2010 1.2 0.4 -0.2 3.2 2.7 1.8 2.8 2.1 2.8
Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 3.1 -6.6 29.3 116.4 3.1 -19.2 -3.4 -10.6 -11.1
Number of personal bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 12.1 -23.5 1.7 -49.4 -38.9 15.8 -15.1 -10.8 19.6
Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 28.6 16.7 20.0 720.2 -19.5 -17.8 350.0 29.4 -37.0
PRICES
Consumer Price Index (1) * Jun 2010 -0.1 0.2 0.1 1.3 0.3 0.6 -0.2 1.0 1.1
Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jun 2010 1.0 0.4 -0.2 -0.5 3.3 2.7 3.7 2.4 3.5
Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 2.7 -0.5 -0.7 -1.7 11.5 10.3 13.4 11.4 2.5
LABOR MARKET
Job creation (000) Jun 2010 0.3 1.4 6.8 2.8 2.8 1.1 13.7 16.7 -1.9
SASKATCHEWAN
Retail Sales * May 2010 -0.3 -2.1 1.6 0.5 -0.2 1.6 1.4 3.4 -1.6
Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 -1.7 2.4 4.8 28.9 13.8 -5.2 5.6 8.3 -7.0
Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 0.6 -11.2 8.4 -21.4 11.5 -18.3 4.6 4.7 -20.8
Number of personal bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 2.2 7.1 5.9 -35.4 -21.4 21.4 -9.8 5.6 16.0
Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 -25.0 -7.7 85.7 117.4 -60.0 13.5 -35.7 -10.5 -9.5
PRICES
Consumer Price Index (1) * Jun 2010 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.3 1.2 1.5
Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jun 2010 0.8 0.1 -0.2 -0.9 4.3 5.5 5.9 5.3 6.3
Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) May 2010 1.6 0.9 0.2 10.0 4.7 -0.3 5.8 2.6 -0.2
Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 2.8 -4.9 4.2 3.3 1.8 4.2 5.6 4.6 2.8
LABOR MARKET
Job creation (000) Jun 2010 2.1 -1.8 0.6 0.3 1.0 0.3 3.5 6.0 4.9
July 23, 2010 13

ECONOMIC TABLES

TABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A5)
July 23, 2010
ALBERTA
Retail Sales * May 2010 0.0 -2.3 0.5 0.5 7.3 -1.9 4.4 5.4 -10.5
Wages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.9 0.8 1.2 9.8 3.0 -0.3 2.6 1.5 3.4
Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 2.0 -1.8 6.3 13.3 28.4 -18.9 50.1 21.8 -37.3
Number of personal bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 -6.9 7.9 -7.6 -64.8 -31.0 49.5 -9.8 -2.6 76.8
Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 11.1 -15.6 0.0 -37.3 -1.0 -17.2 -31.8 -21.2 14.1
PRICES
Consumer Price Index (1) * Jun 2010 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.6 1.2 0.2
Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jun 2010 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -2.1 -0.2 2.5 0.2 1.4 5.0
Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) May 2010 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.4 2.0 -5.2 1.6 -0.6 -9.8
Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -3.3 -1.2 0.6 3.3 -0.4 4.3 3.7 7.0 -8.5
LABOR MARKET
Job creation (000) Jun 2010 5.7 14.7 10.0 10.1 0.8 1.1 13.7 4.5 -29.2
BRITISH COLUMBIA
Retail Sales * May 2010 1.5 -1.4 1.1 2.8 6.9 2.6 7.5 8.6 -8.5
Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -9.3 -12.3 6.2 -44.1 -35.6 56.3 -22.5 26.3 -21.3
Wages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.4 1.0 -0.5 4.3 4.0 -1.0 2.5 1.8 -1.2
Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 9.3 3.5 12.1 89.5 16.0 -15.6 30.8 7.9 -18.2
Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 -35.7 40.0 5.3 -43.1 -54.7 -21.9 -62.5 -42.1 0.9
PRICES
Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jun 2010 -0.3 0.7 0.1 3.9 4.7 2.9 4.2 2.8 4.0
Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) May 2010 0.3 0.3 0.5 5.1 6.3 -2.7 4.7 2.5 -6.8
Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 1.5 -1.8 1.0 6.2 4.7 14.0 10.1 14.7 -8.2
LABOR MARKET
Job creation (000) Jun 2010 6.4 -10.1 12.7 3.0 5.1 3.8 46.1 30.4 -42.5
July 23, 2010 14

ECONOMIC TABLES

TABLE 5 - INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
July 23, 2010
OECD leading index May 2010 -0.1 0.1 0.2 2.9 7.8 4.1 8.3 9.5 -10.7
JAPAN
Consumer confidence - percenbtage (1) Jun 2010 43.5 42.8 42.0 42.8 41.3 40.5 37.6 41.3 31.3
Retail Sales (1) May 2010 -3.0 -7.3 18.2 2.6 13.2 0.7 2.9 3.8 -3.5
Industrial Production, Volume Index May 2010 0.1 1.3 1.2 12.8 25.5 -0.8 20.4 25.4 -30.6
Exports May 2010 -1.2 2.3 -0.3 11.2 50.1 -4.2 34.6 40.3 -43.3
Imports May 2010 0.4 6.4 -3.1 17.7 48.1 -15.1 33.0 23.0 -36.5
Merchandise trade bal. (Billions of ¥) May 2010 416 508 701 541 571 504 261 2,821 -624
Current account (Billions of ¥) May 2010 905 1,380 1,785 1,356 1,365 1,345 1,056 6,938 4,086
Inflation (CPI) May 2010 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -1.7 -0.9 -1.1 -0.3
Job offers to applicants ratio May 2010 0.50 0.48 0.49 0.49 0.47 0.45 0.46 0.48 0.54
Unemployment Rate May 2010 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.7
Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 2009 2008 2007
Gross Domestic Product (Constant Yen) 5.0 4.6 0.4 6.9 -15.8 -9.6 -5.3 -1.2 2.3
Euro-zone
Volume Retail Sales * May 2010 0.1 -0.8 0.7 0.2 0.7 -1.1 0.2 0.1 -3.2
Industrial Production Apr 2010 0.8 1.6 0.7 15.8 11.9 -7.2 9.4 5.5 -18.8
Exports May 2010 1.6 -3.1 8.2 40.5 23.1 -4.5 21.1 14.6 -21.1
Imports May 2010 4.2 -3.0 10.2 55.8 27.4 -7.2 26.8 14.3 -21.7
Merch. Trade Bal. (Millions of euros) May 2010 -2,968 150 326 -831 961 1,320 2,152 1,144 -388
Inflation (CPI) Jun 2010 0.0 0.1 0.5 5.1 1.8 0.7 1.4 1.3 0.6
Unemployment Rate May 2010 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.8 9.4 10.0 9.0
Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 2009 2008 2007
Gross Domestic Product (Constant Euro) 0.8 0.5 1.6 -0.3 -9.8 -7.4 -4.1 0.5 2.7
UNITED KINGDOM
Consumer Confidence (Diffusion index) Jun 2010 -11 -10 -6 -9 -7 -9 -18 -7 -25
Retail Sales * Jun 2010 0.7 0.8 -0.2 6.9 -3.0 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.0
Industrial Production May 2010 0.8 -0.7 1.7 8.0 2.9 -5.0 2.5 0.7 -12.1
Exports (1) May 2010 0.2 -0.2 1.3 19.3 21.1 -0.2 20.3 14.0 -10.8
Imports (1) May 2010 2.4 -0.2 4.9 21.6 21.3 -1.3 22.2 12.4 -11.0
Merchandise Trade Bal. (Millions of £) May 2010 -8,062 -7,411 -7,418 -7,630 -7,054 -7,285 -7,170 -37,327 -34,491
Inflation (CPI harmonized) (1) Jun 2010 0.2 0.2 0.6 5.3 3.6 2.6 3.2 3.3 2.6
Industrial Prices (1) Jun 2010 -0.3 0.1 1.6 9.3 6.2 3.0 5.1 4.9 1.4
House prices Jun 2010 -0.6 -0.6 -0.1 -2.3 4.2 1.1 4.9 5.5 -15.9
Unemployment Rate Apr 2010 7.8 7.9 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.6 7.9 7.2
Q2 2010 Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 2009 2008 2007

Gross Domestic Product (Constant £) * 4.5 1.3 1.7 -1.0 -2.8 -1.0 -4.9 -0.1 2.7
INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATES

Reference Current Prev. Week Average of last Thurdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w.
Thursday Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. ago ago ago
JAPAN
Prime Rate * 22-Jul-10 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30
3-month Financing Bill Rate * 22-Jul-10 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.15
- Spread with U.S. * 22-Jul-10 -0.05 -0.04 -0.04 -0.03 -0.02 0.01 -0.05 0.07 -0.04
Yield on 10-year Gov't Bonds * 22-Jul-10 1.06 1.08 1.14 1.19 1.26 1.29 1.31 1.33 1.38
- Spread with U.S. * 22-Jul-10 -1.88 -1.91 -1.89 -2.05 -2.23 -2.20 -2.46 -2.26 -2.33
Exchange Rate (¥/U.S.$) * 22-Jul-10 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Euro Zone
3-month Treasury Bills * 22-Jul-10 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.68 0.63 0.67 0.58 0.62 0.90
- Spread with U.S. * 22-Jul-10 0.66 0.63 0.60 0.53 0.50 0.56 0.42 0.56 0.71
- Spread with U.S. * 22-Jul-10 -0.29 -0.35 -0.44 -0.54 -0.57 -0.40 -0.70 -0.36 -0.41
Exchange Rate (U.S.$/Euro) * 22-Jul-10 1.29 1.29 1.27 1.26 1.31 1.38 1.33 1.41 1.42
(Yen/Euro) * 22-Jul-10 111.57 113.11 111.49 113.40 118.65 125.92 124.03 129.14 134.23
(Euro / £ ) * 22-Jul-10 1.19 1.20 1.20 1.19 1.16 1.14 1.15 1.15 1.16
UNITED KINGDOM
Prime Rate * 22-Jul-10 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50
3-month Treasury Bills (tender) * 22-Jul-10 0.50 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.50 0.47 0.51 0.48 0.43
- Spread with U.S. * 22-Jul-10 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.42 0.24
- Spread with U.S. * 22-Jul-10 0.30 0.20 0.16 0.12 0.01 -0.04 -0.07 -0.11 0.01
Exchange Rate (U.S.$ / £ ) * 22-Jul-10 1.53 1.55 1.52 1.49 1.51 1.57 1.54 1.62 1.65
STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%) Since

Past Prev. Month beginning of year
Reference Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec.
MSCI Eafe * Jul 2010 189 2.5 -0.4 -12.2 -10.3 -11.6 12.6 -8.1 4.9
July 23, 2010 15

ECONOMIC TABLES
TABLE 6 - COMMODITY PRICES

July 23, 2010
Spot Price Weekly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%)
Last Prev. Week For the Last Last
Jul 22 Jul 15 Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. Year
CRB Index
Total 483.0 482.0 0.2 2.0 0.5 1.9 -0.9 18.0 409.2
Energy 623.8 610.8 2.1 1.3 -0.4 -4.6 -3.9 14.7 544.0
Grain 331.0 335.8 -1.4 4.8 5.8 29.6 15.4 10.0 300.8
Industrials 444.0 432.0 2.8 -0.5 0.7 -35.1 -2.1 21.9 364.3
Livestock & Meat 322.5 319.4 1.0 0.7 0.3 -16.7 10.5 20.0 268.7
Precious Metals 927.5 935.8 -0.9 1.6 0.1 -10.0 5.3 28.4 722.0
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold ($/ounce) 1187.00 1211.75 -2.0 0.9 -3.1 15.8 15.6 24.3 955.25
(AM fixing London)
Platinum ($/ounce) 1518.0 1529.0 -0.7 0.2 0.5 -42.9 -10.3 28.9 1178.0
(AM fixing London)
Silver ($/ounce) 18.1 18.4 -1.2 3.1 -0.9 4.4 7.1 30.9 13.9
(Handy & Harman)
Palladium ($/ounce troy) 453.0 470.0 -3.6 5.1 3.1 -56.6 -3.9 77.0 256.0
OTHER METALS (LME)

Aluminum ($/tonne) 2,022 2,000 1.1 1.6 3.6 -39.0 -16.2 14.6 1,765
Copper ($/tonne) 6,993 6,662 5.0 1.0 4.7 -30.4 -7.0 26.6 5,526
Zinc ($/tonne) 1,922 1,783 7.8 -2.4 6.9 -57.7 -34.6 14.7 1,676
Nickel ($/tonne) 20,182 19,336 4.4 0.0 2.2 -68.9 14.4 23.6 16,326
Lead ($/tonne) 1,920 1,780 7.9 -1.5 5.7 -49.8 -26.4 11.4 1,724
Uranium (Neuxco spot $/lb U308) 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! ####### $$"ER", E
OTHER COMMODITIES
Oil ($/barrel) 1-month future 78.83 76.51 3.0 1.1 4.3 -18.6 8.6 19.4 66.01
(West Texas Intermediate)
Corn (¢/bushel) 348.5 364.0 -4.3 2.7 3.7 1.7 5.1 8.2 322.0
(Illinois #2)
Soy beans (¢/bushel) 1023.5 1029.5 -0.6 3.4 5.5 18.2 21.8 -1.6 1040.5
(Illinois #1)
Pork (¢/lb) 121.0 115.0 5.2 4.5 0.0 3.4 84.8 46.7 82.5
Beef (Cattle feeder index) 112.1 112.7 -0.6 -1.1 2.4 -1.1 32.9 10.8 101.2
(CME)
Woodpulp NBSK 1020 1020 0.0 0.0 0.0 57.8 51.0 52.2 670
Metric ton delivered in U.S.
Natural Gas (mmbtu) 4.69 4.47 4.9 -1.1 -0.6 92.8 -27.9 29.6 3.62
Henry Hub future NYMEX
Lumber 2X4 217 216 0.5 4.9 0.0 -75.4 -15.5 21.9 178
All prices are in US dollars
July 23, 2010 16

JUL 23 NBC Financial Group Weekly Economic Letter

Hochgeladen von

Dokumentinformationen

Copyright

Verfügbare Formate

Dieses Dokument teilen

Dokument teilen oder einbetten

Freigabeoptionen

Stufen Sie dieses Dokument als nützlich ein?

Sind diese Inhalte unangemessen?

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

JUL 23 NBC Financial Group Weekly Economic Letter

Hochgeladen von

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

July 23, 2010

U.S. economy: recovery or relapse?

Upside since recession

ECONOMY AND STRATEGY GROUP – 514.879.2529

Domestic demand improving at last 6

concluded that U.S. domestic demand was far weaker 2

have two months of data available with which to evaluate -5

the quarter and even three in some cases).

relatively high throughout 2010. Not before next year will it 10

8) How is employment faring? 10) Who should we trust?

0.999 1.000 68 130

0.991 0.992 2001 24 20

NBFG Economy and Strategy Group, Global Insight

As mentioned earlier, the rebound in employment should -4

recession. Once again, the financial markets know, as do

NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via Federal Reserve)

If we assume that the drastic decline in car sales is the

sovereign debt crisis as a drag on activity. Consequently, the 3.0

(seasonally adjusted), the same rate at which it decreased in -1.0

Excluding this segment, retail sales slipped 0.1%. Volume 0.0

government programs intended to stimulate activity in the 6.2

NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via Global Insight)

July 23, 2010 7

July 23, 2010 8

STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%) Since

* Update (1) Commercial Banks (2) Not seasonnally adjusted

July 23, 2010 9

EXTERNAL AND FISCAL BALANCES

INFLATION AND COSTS

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth Rates

July 23, 2010 10

EXTERNAL, FISCAL AND EXCHANGE BALANCES

INFLATION AND COSTS

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth Rates

July 23, 2010 11

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

July 23, 2010 12

Economic and Strategy Team

July 23, 2010 13

Economic and Strategy Team

July 23, 2010 14

Economic and Strategy Team

Q2 2010 Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 2009 2008 2007

INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATES

STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%) Since

July 23, 2010 15

TABLE 6 - COMMODITY PRICES

OTHER METALS (LME)

All prices are in US dollars

July 23, 2010 16

Das könnte Ihnen auch gefallen