Lighthouse Investment Management

1 Million Refugees A Cure for German

Demographics?

AGBC Exchange
New European College
May 20, 2017

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Names of 17,306 Drowning Victims in Mediterranean Sea (May 2015)

(August 2016)

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Arrivals of Refugees at Munich Central Station (September 2015)

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Applications for Asylum in Germany

800,000
Source: German Office for Migration and 2016 War in Syria
700,000

600,000
1992 War in
500,000 Yugoslavia

400,000

300,000

200,000 1980 Military

Coup Turkey
100,000

0
1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013

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Applications for Asylum by Country of Origin and Acceptance Ratio

Country Applications Applications Acceptance Ratio Acceptance Ratio

(Top 10) 2016 2015 2016 2015
Syria 269.000 163.000 98% 96%
Afghanistan 128.000 32.000 56% 48%
Iraq 97.000 31.000 70% 89%
Iran 27.000 n/a 51% n/a
Eritrea 19.000 11.000 92% 92%
Albania 17.000 55.000 0.4% 0.2%
Unknown 15.000 12.000 84% 80%
Pakistan 15.000 8.000 3% 10%
Nigeria 13.000 n/a 10% n/a
Russia 12.000 n/a 5% n/a
All Countries 745.000 477.000 62% 50%

Source: German Office for Migration and Refugees

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Japanese working age population peaked at 87 million in 1993 (now: 76 million)

Japanese population peaked at 128 million in 2008 (now: 127 million)

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Any questions or feedback welcome.

Alex dot Gloy at LighthouseInvestmentManagement dot com

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