EDMA360

Assignment Two: Gaining insights from research for classroom planning

Introduction
Central to any successful mathematics classroom is the implementation of effective units of wor, derived
from curriculum content knowledge and information. This information consists of a variety of concepts that
provide opportunities for students to enhance their understanding in specific mathematical areas. The
following paper explores the mathematical concept of probability and chance. It discusses significant key
concepts, effective strategies and approaches, common student misconceptions and appropriate teaching
practices that will enrich student learning.
(Words: 72)

Literature review
What it means to successfully teach probability and concepts of chance is a key topic of discussion
throughout various literatures. Frykholm (2001) explains that previously, probability was not taught within
the early years of primary education. The notion claimed that students of younger years would not be able
to comprehend the concepts, as some remain too difficult for adults to understand. Tarr (2002) further
supports this argument by stating that educators often avoid teaching probability until the beginning of
secondary, as they find the content too challenging to instruct. Although, the mathematical concept carries a
negative connotation, the need for exploration with the classroom is desired, as references to probability
remain around us (Van de Walle, Karp & Bay-Williams, 2015).
Researchers suggest that students have intuitive understandings related to probability and concepts of
chance from an early age. The importance of fostering these intuitive ideas is vital in the development of
probabilistic thinking, mathematical connections and number sense. Van de Walle et al (2015) extend this
idea by suggesting the use of pertinent problems that relate to familiar context, rather than specific
mathematical activities. By introducing students to both fair and unfair games, educators can ensure that
students have the opportunity to analyse activities in a logical manner, as the outcome will likely be contrary
to students intuitive ideas (Van de Walle et al., 2015). Facilitating this approach will ensure that students
are exploring a range of situations, rather than focusing on the development of rules and formal definitions
(Van de Walle et al., 2015).
Watson & Kelly (2002), state that probability and chance understanding increases when opportunities are
available for students to explore and appreciate the uncertainty of a task (pp.27). This approach
encourages participation in hands on activities, where students observe the date, collect their results,
interpret the information and justify and make inferences based on their findings. Equally, Frykholm (2001)
states that through this method students will realise that even though an event may be uncertain, through
experience and exploration, students will understand that the event is still likely to occur. This
understanding is fundamental to the ways in which children view the world, as well as their development of
more sophisticated comprehension randomness, samples, populations and inferential statistics (Frykholm,
2001, pp.113).

In order to plan suitable activities for students, educators need to be aware of the common misconceptions
that arise when teaching probability (Barnes, 1998). These misconceptions impede students ability to make
clear and precise judgements about related mathematical concepts. Often these misconceptions stem from
prior learning experiences or students inability to differentiate between two related terms. Shaughnessy
(1991) proposes that educators often increase this confusion by assuming that students understand
terminology associated with the concept. This assumption suggests that students begin lesson one with
prior knowledge, ensuring that their information is accurate and relevant to the topic. However, it is an
educators responsibility to never assume what a student knows and what they dont know. Nisbet &
Williams (2009) reinforce this idea, by emphasising the importance of introducing students to topic-specific
language such as, possible, impossible and certain during the introductory lesson. This language
development will ensure that students are better informed when engaging in activities that require them to
place terms on a scale of likeliness, commonly referred to as the probability continuum (Van de Walle et al.,
2015). Gamblers fallacy is another common misconception associated to this mathematical concept. It
relates to having the understanding that previous occurrences influence future events (Van de Walle et al.,
2015). For example, if a coin has being flipped in the air four times and on all occasions it has landed on
heads, then it is more likely on the fifth flip the coin will land on tails (Ryan and Williams, 2007). In order to
rectify this understanding, educators need to ensure they encourage the use of many representatives
(graphs, tables) and concrete materials (dice, counters) to help consider each event as if it is the beginning
and not a continuation from before.
(Words: 666)

Critique of the Curriculum

Drawing upon the ideas explored in significant literature, probability and chance is a vital element of the
mathematics curriculum. The Victorian Curriculum Assessment Authority (2016) first introduces probability
and chance in year 1. The concepts explored are then continued to year 2 where students are required to
explain outcomes of familiar events and describe them using everyday language. Correspondingly, the
literature reviews highlight the importance of fostering students language development by encouraging the
use of terms such as will happen, wont happen, might happen (Victorian Curriculum Assessment
Authority, 2016). During years 3-6, the mathematical concept of probability and chance increases in
complexity. Students begin observing the date, collecting their results, interpreting the information and
justifying and make inferences based on their findings. They are introduced to the probability continuum
and begin conducting experiments that measure the likeliness of an event occurring. Through this
exposure, it is evident that students in the upper levels of primary education are given opportunities to
explore the phenomena being examined, all of which are implications reflected upon in the literature.
However, it is clear that the Victorian Curriculum does mention the use of both fair and unfair activities when
introducing students to probability and chance. As examined in the literature, the exposure of both
possibilities is necessary when analysing data and eliminating any misconceptions that may arise.
(Words: 222)

Conclusion
This paper has highlighted vital implications when developing a unit of work within the mathematical area of
probability and chance. It describes the need for informed pedagogical teaching and influential
mathematical instruction. It reflects and reviews current literature and curriculum documents to reinforce the
key ideas and understanding that need to be consider when planning effective mathematical activities that
foster student development.
(Words: 62)
 Mathematics Unit Planner- Probability (Chance)

Topic: Probability (Chance) Year Level: 4/5 Term: 2 Week: 5 Date: 24/10/2016
Chances are Likely or unlikely?
Key mathematical understandings: Victorian Curriculum Focus
Content strand(s): Number and Algebra Measurement and Geometry Statistics and Probability
The probability of an event is a measure of
the chance of that event occurring. Sub-strand(s): Chance
Probability is represented on a continuum
from 0 (impossible) to 1 (possible). Key Level description:
Sample space and event is central to Year 4
understanding probability. Describe possible everyday events and order their chances of occurring (ACMSP092)
Identify everyday events where one cannot happen if the other happens (ACMSP093)
Identify events where the chance of one will not be affected by the occurrence of the other (ACMSP094)

Year 5
Recognise that probabilities range from 0 to 1(ACMSP117)

Proficiency strand(s): Understanding Fluency Problem Solving Reasoning

Understanding Students build a robust knowledge of adaptable skills that enable them to make connections between
representations of numbers. They develop an understanding between the why and the how events occur.
Problem Solving Students interpret, formulate, investigate and record authentic mathematical situations. They
communicate their findings effectively.
Reasoning Students develop a capacity of logical thoughts and actions, such as analysing, evaluating, explaining,
inferring, justifying and generalising information. Students will transfer their understanding of probability from one context
to another.

Key skills to develop and practise: Key equipment / resources: Key vocabulary:

To develop specific terminology related to Whiteboard Probability, Chance, variability, fair, unfair, certain,
probability and chance (impossible, likely, impossible, outcomes, continuum, likely, unlikely,
variability, sample size, pooling data), that will Whiteboard markers likeliness, randomness, sample size, predict, evaluate,
event, equal chance, trial, possible, odds.
assist them in communicating their ideas and Poster paper
thoughts throughout the lessons.
Sticky tape or string
To gather and interpret information that will assist
them in making inferences based on their findings. Standard die

To understand that probability is represented on a 8 sided coloured die

number line from 0 (impossible) to 1 (possible). 8 coloured pieces of paper with identical colours to the
This is called the probability continuum. die.
Two coins

See Appendix for other resources

 Links to other contexts:

Literature- Nursery Rhyme activity

Real life events will be used to assist students

understanding about the likeliness of an event
occurring. For example: Will you go to school
tomorrow?
Possible misconceptions: Key probing questions: Assessment overview:

When determining probability for data, sample size is Where would you place that event on the Observations
irrelevant probability continuum? Work sample analysis
What makes this game fair/ unfair? -Nursery Rhyme activity
All events are equally likely -Greedy Pig
What have you discovered from your results?
What is important language and phrases that we -Counting colours
All events are unfair
Mathematics Journal Entries
can use to discuss probability and chance?
Luck plays a part in chance

Prior outcomes effect future results

Lucky and unlucky numbers impact results

 MATHEMATICAL TUNING IN
FOCUS (WHOLE CLASS FOCUS)
(a short, sharp task relating
(what you want to the focus of the lesson;
students to come to sets the scene/ context for
understand as a result what students do in the
of this lesson short, independent aspect. e.g., It
succinct statement; in may be a problem posed,
some schools this spider diagram, an open-
could be the learning ended question, game, or
intention) reading a story)
Session 1 Brainstorm ideas,
Exploring understandings and
appropriate terminology relating to the
terminology to concept of chance. Students
determine the should refer to their own
chance of an lives, considering words or
event occurring phrases they would use to
describe an event occurring.
Session 2 Students will be introduced
Comparing and to the probability continuum.
ordering events They will discuss the notion
and looking at that the continuum begin at
probability on a 0 and ends at 1.
continuum.
The educator will create a
line at the front of the
classroom. At one end the
INVESTIGATIONS
SESSION
(INDEPENDENT LEARNING)
(extended opportunity for
students to work in pairs,
small groups or individually.
Time for teacher to probe
childrens thinking or work
with a small group for part of
the time and to also conduct
roving conferences)
Choose a Nursery Rhyme
Create a table, labelling each
of the four columns certain,
likely, unlikely and
impossible.
Use the phrases from the
Nursery Rhyme and place
them in the correct column.
(See Appendix)
The probability continuum will
be incorporated during this
portion of the lesson.
Students will write a statement
on a card, relating to the
likelihood of an event (See
Appendix)
REFLECTION & MAKING
CONNECTIONS SESSION
(WHOLE CLASS FOCUS)
(focused teacher questions
and summary to draw out the
mathematics and assist
children to make links. NB.
This may occur at particular
points during a lesson. Use of
spotlight, strategy, gallery
walk, etc.)
Working in pairs, students will
justify to their partner why
they chose to place each
phrase in the nominated
column.
Students will reflect on their
understanding by writing in
their mathematics journal.
Questions to be answered:
What did I previously
think?
What do I think now?
What is an
interesting fact that I
learnt?
What do I want to
find out?
Students will add the definition
of chance and probability in
the mathematics glossary.
Each student along the
continuum must justify why
they believe they are standing
in the correct position.
*Students can refer to each
other for assistance and make
changes accordingly.
CATERING FOR DIVERSITY
- Enabling prompt
(to allow those experiencing
difficulty to engage in active
experiences related to the
initial goal task)
- Extending prompt
(questions that extend
students thinking on the initial
task)
Enabling
Students will focus on events
that are certain to happen
and those that are
impossible.
Extending
Students will use phrases
from appropriate raps and
songs to record their
information.
Enabling
Students will be given cards
with different terminology.
Students will place the correct
terms on the continuum.
Extending
Students will write a statement
that has a likelihood of two
ASSESSMENT
STRATEGIES
(should relate to
mathematical focus of the
lesson (learning intention);
includes what the teacher
will listen for, observe, note
or analyse; what evidence of
learning will be collected and
what criteria will be used to
analyse the evidence; in
some schools this may be
articulated as success
criteria)
Educators will listen and
observe students
understanding. This will be
conducted through a roving
conference, where
educators will clarify any
misconceptions that may
arise in student thinking.
Mathematics Journals
Educators will listen and
observe students
understanding. The will
record significant information
that a student may have said
(Indicating understanding or
not).
Mathematics Journal.
 educator will place a 0
(impossible) and at the other
a 1 (possible).
Using events familiar to
school life, the educator will
facilitate student
understanding by prompting
them to place pictures on
the correct spot on the
continuum.
Session 3 Educator will begin by
Investigating asking students what the
variability in maths focus is for the week?
games and
activities to The educator will begin by
develop and asking students if they can
evaluate reflect on some of the new
inferences based words they have learned in
on our findings. the last few sessions.
Students will take turns in
standing in front of the class.
They will say a statement
out loud about the likeliness
of an event occurring. For
example: It will rain
spaghetti tomorrow.
The rest of the students will
determine the likeliness of
that event.
Students will swap their card
with another peer and make a
choice where they need to
stand on the continuum
regarding their new statement.
Greedy Pig
their game strategy was with a
The educator rolls a die and
announces the number it
lands on. Students will record
this information. The educator
will roll the die again and
announce the outcome out
loud. The students will add
that number to their previous
tally.
Students will have the
opportunity to continue
playing and accumulate
points, or decide to stop at
any given point.
This process will continue until
the educator rolls the number
1. Every students still playing
will lose their points for that
round.
Record their findings in their events. They need to swap
mathematic journals. their card with a partner with
the same concept. They will
Students will add the definition need to analyse the statement
of possible and impossible in and justify their reasoning.
the mathematics glossary.
Students will discuss what Enabling Educators will listen and
Students can have access to observe students
partner. a calculator to add their understanding.
numbers.
Record their understanding in Mathematics Journal
their mathematic journal. Extending
Questions to be answered: Students will play this game in
a group. They will multiply
What was your game their numbers, instead of
adding them together.
strategy?
Did you make
judgements about
taking a risk and
continue playing, or
stopping the game?
What was likelihood
of a 1 being rolled?
Were the outcomes
random?
Session 4 The educator will begin by
Investigating labelling 8 sides of the room
variability in with a different colour.
chance activities Students will be encouraged
to develop and to stand in any coloured
evaluate area of their choice. The
inferences based educator will roll an eight-
on our findings. sided die. The colour he/she
lands on will determine who
is eliminated. The last colour
standing wins.
Educator will facilitate a
discussion about how
chance is involved in the
outcome of a game.
Session 5 The educator will discuss
Engaging in with the class what the term
mathematical fairness means. What
argumentation and makes something fair or
reasoning, to unfair?
develop various
methods to display In small groups, students
results of chance will be given a flash card of
events. the name of a popular
game. Within the group,
students will have to decide
wether the game is fair or
unfair and why.
(See Appendix).
Counting Colours Students will compare their Enabling Educators will listen and
prediction and outcome with Decrease the colours on the observe students
Adapted from: another group. spinner. understanding.
H, Kaur, personal
communication, Tutorial 10, Record their understanding in Extending Mathematic Journal.
11th of October 2016. their mathematic journal. Add more colours to the
Questions to be answered: spinner.
Working in pairs, students will What does chance
look at the spinner and look at mean?
the spinner and predict what What did I
colour they believe it will land
on the most (See Appendix). previously think?
Students will record their What do I think
prediction and reasons why. now?
They will create a tally. Each
column will have a selected
colour (See Appendix).
Students will test out their
prediction. They will continue
to collect data until one
column (certain colour) has
reached a total of 10.
Fair or Unfair? Discuss students initial Enabling Educators will listen and
thoughts on the fairness and Play the game with only two observe students
Adapted from: the rules of the game. coins. understanding.
Van de Walle, J. A., Karp, K. Reflect on the final result of
S., & Bay-Williams, J. M. each group. Who won and Extending Mathematics Journal
(2015). Elementary and who didnt? Was there a Students will create two Has the student
middle school mathematics: reason why? possible ways to record the recorded all
Teaching developmentally. sample space. possible
(9th ed., global ed.). Boston, Collect the data obtained by
MA: Pearson. the class (Pooling data). outcomes?
Explore differences in opinion. Is the information
Three students toss two like recording in a
coins. Player A gets 1 point if Students will record all clear and logical
the coins land on heads, possible outcomes for that way?
Player B gets 1 point if the game (Sample Space). They How well has the
coins land on tails and Player will have the opportunity to
students
C gets one point if the toss record this information in any
results are mixed. Students way that benefits their communicated
should record results of each understanding. their
round (Total of 20, however understanding
can be flexible). Reflect on their through their
understanding. reflection?
Before commencing, students
should predict what they
believe the outcome would be.
 They should be encouraged to
state whether the game s fair
or unfair and their reasons
why.

Plan for next sequence of learning (5-7 sessions) that builds on this unit of work:

1 Content/ mathematical ideas

Students will engage in a variety of experiments involving likely outcomes.
Students will represent the information obtained from experiments and record all possible outcomes using fractions.
2 Aspects of the Victorian Curriculum that could be addressed in the next sequence
List outcomes of chance experiments involving equally likely outcomes and represent probabilities of those outcomes using fractions (ACMSP116)
3 Possible learning tasks that address the content and curriculum demands.
Expressing probability as fractions- A fruit bowl has 3 oranges, 5 bananas and 2 apples. What is the probability of selecting a banana? 1/5.
Pooling data from the whole class. Expressing the findings through fractions.
4 Reasons for these planning decisions
Students can incorporate their fractional understanding, within the mathematical concept of probability and chance. Eventually, students can incorporate percentages and
decimals into their lessons.
Reinforce student understanding of sample space and its relevance.
Assist students in developing their terminology and using it when communicating to peers and others.
References

Barnes, M. (1998). Dealing with Misconceptions in Probability. Mathematical Association of New South
Whales, 20(1), 17-20. Retrieved from:
https://leo.acu.edu.au/pluginfile.php/1908436/mod_resource/content/1/misconception%20about
%20probability%20Mary%20Barnes.pdf

Frykholm, J. A. (2001). Eenie, meenie, minie, moe Building on intuitive notions of chance. Teaching
Children mathematics. 8(2), 112-118. Retrieved from:
http://go.galegroup.com.ezproxy2.acu.edu.au/ps/i.do?&id=GALE|
A79587014&v=2.1&u=acuni&it=r&p=AONE&sw=w&authCount=1

Nisbet, S., & Williams, A. (2009). Improving students attitudes to chance with games activities. Australian
Mathematics Teacher, 65(3), 25-27. Retrieved from:
http://web.a.ebscohost.com.ezproxy2.acu.edu.au/ehost/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?sid=fd634601-788c-4db4-
8921-371a2fb2453a%40sessionmgr4010&vid=1&hid=4112

Ryan, J., & Williams, J. (2007). Childrens mathematics 4-15 Learning from errors and misconceptions.
New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Open University Press.
Shaughnessy, M. (1991). Missed opportunities in research on the teaching and learning
of data and chance. People in mathematics education. (Proceedings of the 20th annual
conference of the Mathematics Education Research Group of Australasia, pp. 6-22).
Rotorua, NZ: MERGA

Tarr, J, E. (2002). Providing opportunities to learn probability concepts. Teaching Children Mathematics,
8(8), 482-287. Retrieved from: http://go.galegroup.com.ezproxy2.acu.edu.au/ps/i.do?&id=GALE|
A84903082&v=2.1&u=acuni&it=r&p=AONE&sw=w&authCount=1

Van de Walle, J. A., Karp, K. S., & Bay-Williams, J. M. (2015). Elementary and middle school mathematics:
Teaching developmentally. (9th ed., global ed.). Boston, MA: Pearson.
Victorian Curriculum Assessment Authority. (2016). Victorian Essential Learning Standards: Strands,
Domains and Dimensions. Retrieved 26th of October 2016, from:
http://ausvels.vcaa.vic.edu.au/Mathematics/Curriculum/F-10

Watson, J. M., & Kelly, B. A. (2002). Emerging concepts in chance and data. Australian Mathematics
Teacher, 65(3), 25-37. Retrieved from: http://go.galegroup.com.ezproxy2.acu.edu.au/ps/retrieve.do?
tabID=T002&resultListType=RESULT_LIST&searchResultsType=SingleTab&searchType=AdvancedSe
archForm&currentPosition=1&docId=GALE
%7CA95915291&docType=Article&sort=RELEVANCE&contentSegment=&prodId=AONE&contentSet=
GALE%7CA95915291&searchId=R1&userGroupName=acuni&inPS=true

Appendices
Appendix 1. Nursery Rhyme Activity Example
Nursery Rhyme: Hey Diddle Diddle

POSSIBLE IMPOSSIBLE

The little dog laughed to see such sport The cat and the fiddle

The cow jumped over the moon

And the dish ran away with the spoon

Appendix 2. Statement Card Example will it rain today?

Will it rain today?

Will I finish all my lunch today?

Is my mum going to pick me up from school today?

Appendix 3.Game Names Example

HEADS OR
UNO TAILS
ROCK, PAPER, GAME OF AFL
SCISSORS FOOTBALL
 MONOPOLY CHECKERS
Appendix 4. Coloured spinner and column

RED

BLUE

YELLOW

GREEN

Red Green Blue Yellow