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LecturesonTimeSeries RSquareandAdjustedRSquare:
HetroscedasticityChapter
PDF R2 showshowwellterms(datapoints)fitacurveorline.AdjustedR2 alsoindicateshowwelltermsfitacurveorline,butadjustsforthenumber
oftermsinamodel.Ifyouaddmoreandmoreuselessvariablestoamodel,adjustedrsquaredwilldecrease.Ifyouaddmoreusefulvariables,
adjustedrsquaredwillincrease.
AdjustedR2 willalwaysbelessthanorequaltoR2 .YouonlyneedR2 whenworkingwithsamples.Inotherwords,R2 isntnecessarywhenyou
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havedatafromanentirepopulation.
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Theformulais:
HetroscedasticityChapter
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ChapterinPDF
HetroscedasticityChapter
where:
Nisthenumberofpointsinyourdatasample.
Kisthenumberofindependentregressors,i.e.thenumberofvariablesinyourmodel,excludingtheconstant.
HowAdjustedR2PenalizesYou
TheadjustedR2 willpenalizeyouforaddingindependentvariables(Kintheequation)thatdonotfitthemodel.Why?Inregressionanalysis,it
canbetemptingtoaddmorevariablestothedataasyouthinkofthem.Someofthosevariableswillbesignificant,butyoucantbesurethat
significanceisjustbychance.TheadjustedR2 willcompensateforthisbythatpenalizingyouforthoseextravariables.
ProblemswithR2thatarecorrectedwithanadjustedR2
1.R2 increaseswitheverypredictoraddedtoamodel.AsR2 alwaysincreasesandneverdecreases,itcanappeartobeabetterfitwiththe
moretermsyouaddtothemodel.Thiscanbecompletelymisleading.
2.Similarly,ifyourmodelhastoomanytermsandtoomanyhighorderpolynomialsyoucanrunintotheproblemofoverfittingthedata.When
youoverfitdata,amisleadinglyhighR2 valuecanleadtomisleadingprojections.
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