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LecturesonTimeSeries RSquareandAdjustedRSquare:
HetroscedasticityChapter
PDF R2 showshowwellterms(datapoints)fitacurveorline.AdjustedR2 alsoindicateshowwelltermsfitacurveorline,butadjustsforthenumber
oftermsinamodel.Ifyouaddmoreandmoreuselessvariablestoamodel,adjustedrsquaredwilldecrease.Ifyouaddmoreusefulvariables,
adjustedrsquaredwillincrease.
AdjustedR2 willalwaysbelessthanorequaltoR2 .YouonlyneedR2 whenworkingwithsamples.Inotherwords,R2 isntnecessarywhenyou
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havedatafromanentirepopulation.
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Theformulais:
HetroscedasticityChapter
PDF

ChapterinPDF
HetroscedasticityChapter
where:

Nisthenumberofpointsinyourdatasample.
Kisthenumberofindependentregressors,i.e.thenumberofvariablesinyourmodel,excludingtheconstant.

IfyoualreadyknowR2 thenitsafairlysimpleformulatowork.However,ifyoudonotalreadyhaveR2 thenyoullprobablynotwanttocalculate


thisbyhand!(Ifyoumust,see(HowtoCalculatetheCoefficientofDetermination)Therearemanystatisticalpackagesthatcancalculated
adjustedrsquaredforyou.

BothR2 andtheadjustedR2 giveyouanideaofhowmanydatapointsfallwithinthelineoftheregressionequation.However,thereisonemain


differencebetweenR2 andtheadjustedR2 :R2 assumesthateverysinglevariableexplainsthevariationinthedependentvariable.Theadjusted
R2 tellsyouthepercentageofvariationexplainedbyonlytheindependentvariablethatactuallyaffectthedependentvariable.

HowAdjustedR2PenalizesYou
TheadjustedR2 willpenalizeyouforaddingindependentvariables(Kintheequation)thatdonotfitthemodel.Why?Inregressionanalysis,it
canbetemptingtoaddmorevariablestothedataasyouthinkofthem.Someofthosevariableswillbesignificant,butyoucantbesurethat
significanceisjustbychance.TheadjustedR2 willcompensateforthisbythatpenalizingyouforthoseextravariables.

ProblemswithR2thatarecorrectedwithanadjustedR2
1.R2 increaseswitheverypredictoraddedtoamodel.AsR2 alwaysincreasesandneverdecreases,itcanappeartobeabetterfitwiththe
moretermsyouaddtothemodel.Thiscanbecompletelymisleading.
2.Similarly,ifyourmodelhastoomanytermsandtoomanyhighorderpolynomialsyoucanrunintotheproblemofoverfittingthedata.When
youoverfitdata,amisleadinglyhighR2 valuecanleadtomisleadingprojections.

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