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Topic: Probability Year Level: 5 Term: Week: Date:

Key mathematical understandings Victorian Curriculum Focus
Probability ranges from 0-1 Content strand(s): Statistics and Probability
Likelihood of winning a game can be Sub-strand(s): Chance
increased by considering the probability Key Level description:
of outcomes List outcomes of chance experiments involving equally likely outcomes and represent probabilities of those outcomes
Equally likely outcomes can be using fractions (VCMSP203)
represented in different ways. Recognise that probabilities range from 0 to 1 (VCMSP204)
Probability can put on a number line
Proficiency strand(s):
Problem Solving: Represent probability of outcomes as fractions
Reasoning: Justify the placement of events on a number line

Key skills to develop and practise Key equipment / resources: Key vocabulary
To use appropriate language when referring to Counters Certain, impossible, fraction, outcomes, probability,
probability Rope and number line headings equally likely, how do you know, fair, unfair, predict,
Representing the probability of outcomes in Range of spinners likelihood, chance, number line, represent, justify,
the form of fractions Blank spinners
Organizing the likelihood of event using a Dice (range of number sides)
number line True/false cards
Using the probability of outcomes to help win
Matching activity cards
simple games
Create a visual representation from a given
fraction Links to other contexts
Open ended activity inquiry link
Ask when else in their lives things are impossible
or certain or anywhere in between?

Possible misconceptions Key probing questions Assessment overview

That the previous outcome effects future Why is it important to represent probabilities of Work samples
outcomes outcomes in the form of fractions? Observations
Some outcomes are harder to get than others Why do we need to know that probability ranges Questioning
(when theyre all equal) from 0-1? Anecdotal notes
Randomness- For example tossing a coin 10 Why do we use number lines in probability?
times doesnt mean 5 heads and 5 tails can you increase the chance of winning simple
probability games? How?
Equiprobability bias

Students are given a Students are to make a All spinners from the Enabling prompt Analysis of students
Session 1 spinner and they have spinner that has equal students will be placed Give a square spinners
Equally likely 30 seconds to write parts yellow and red. under two headings on model to work Can the student create
outcomes can Then need to make/draw with rather than an equal spinner?
down as much the floor equal
be represented Do they understand the
information as they another two alternative outcome and non- circle
can/know from the spinners that still have equal outcomes and Come up with concept of equal
using spinner
diagram spinner given equal parts yellow and red discussed and only 2 examples outcomes?
(Appendix 1). They will have to convince analysed as a class
Class discussion
a partner that their spinner What does non-equal
Extending prompt Can they see why
is equal; partner has an outcomes mean?
Give students 3 some spinners are not
opportunity to How do we know if the
colours rather equal?
agree/disagree. spinner is equal?
than 2 Can they justify why
Does it matter that the
their spinner is correct?
spinners are different?
Can they both be

Ordering a set of Students will be given a How did you know Enabling prompt Observation
Session 2 words from impossible spinner as a pair (a range where to place the Pair a lower Can the student
Representing to certain and record a of spinners are used) spinner? ability student correctly place a
the likelihood Which spinners do you with someone spinner on a
example for each (appendix 3)
of an event
(appendix 2) Have to place it on a agree or disagree with who is of higher continuum?
occurring on a
number line (whole class) their placement? ability in this area Can they reason their
number line.
Understanding in relation to the chance of If the number line goes Give then a decision appropriately?
that probability spinning red from 0-1 what possible spinner suited to Does the student have
ranges from 0- Piece of rope will be used go in the middle? How their ability an understanding of
1 with 0/impossible at one do you know? number lines in relation
end and 1/certain at the Do all the spinners Extending prompt to probability?
Give students
other. have a number
They will have to reason between 0 and 1 more complex
and justify their placement. associated with them? spinners
Give students
spinner with a
Matching activity Open ended task: Number line will be Enabling prompt: Work sample- collection of
Session 3 Students will have a In pairs students are given analysed and the Give more simple spinners
Creating set of pictures/ connection between fractions Does the spinner
spinners 1 3
statement that they a fraction (e.g.
, fractions and Pair with higher accurately represent
relating to a 2 4 the fraction given?
need to match to the probability will be ability student
given fraction Were all probabilities of
correct fraction discussed.
Deeping ),
(appendix 4) What do you notice outcomes recorded
understanding Then need to design and Extending prompt:
that probability about the size of the correctly using
create a spinner relating to Give more
ranges from 0 fraction and the fractions?
the fraction representing it complex fractions
to 1 likelihood of spinning Were they able to
as GREEN Tell them to
- e.g. If they are given green? correctly place their
include more that spinner on number
How did you place your
3 just two possible line?
spinner? Did you use
4 , green would outcomes on the
the same method as
session 2?
need to represent
Why was there no
3 fraction that equalled
4 on the spinner more than 1?
Would such a fraction
They then need to record be possible in relation
the probability of all to probability?
possible outcomes as
fractions (as it may have
more 2 potential outcomes)
The spinners will then be
placed on the number line
from session 2, relating to
the chance of spinning

True or false 1-2-3 How likely? (Adapted Why did you chose that Enabling prompt: Work sample and
Session 4 Teacher will hold up cards from Van de Walle, Karp, & number as your Work in a small focus observation in class
Looking at the related to probability and Bay-Williams, 2015). predication? group with the discussion
likelihood of the students will have to Using die with number Which numbers are guidance of teacher Looking at their
possible stand on one side of the 1,1,2,3,3,3 predications to see if
room for true and the other impossible? or parent helper
outcomes and Ask students which there is an
for false. Students will have Which numbers are Use colours on the
making number they predict will roll
to be ready to justify their likely? die instead of understanding
predictions choice (appendix 5) the most. What are the numbers probability and
probabilities of each
Record results of 30 rolls outcome? expected outcomes?
Record probabilities of Would you change your Extending prompt: Is their recording of
outcomes predication if you had Give a die with more probabilities for each
All students will combine the probability in sides and therefore number correct?
data to form whole class fractions of each more numbers/ Can they identify
data outcome first? possible outcomes impossible numbers?
Class discussion on what Does the class data
the results were match your

Roll one die. If it ands Free the animals (Adapted How did you decide Enabling prompt: Work sample
Session 5 on 1, 2, 3 or 4, Player from Van de Walle & Lovin, where to put your Use a 4 sided die Collection of their
Identifying the A gets one point. If the 2006) counters? and then less recording where they
likelihood of Played in pairs Were there any counters placed the counters
die lands on 5 or 6,
winning games Player B gets one numbers that were and why
of chance by Each student has 12 Did they change the
point. Record points impossible to get?
considering the counters of one colour and Extending prompt:
and discuss if all Did all numbers have placement of counters?
number of grid (appendix 6) Add a third die or Was there an
outcomes are equally an equal chance or
possible use a die with a understanding that the
likely to be rolled. Then being selected?
outcomes and Students puts counters in higher number or
discuss if game is fair Did the sum of any outcomes were not
identifying the columns sides equally likely?
number keep coming
probability of Get students to Was there
Taken from (Kaur, 2016) up?
each Students need to record write the
Did you change where acknowledgement of
where there counters are probability of why 1 is impossible?
you put your counters
and why each number in Did their justification
the second time round?
fractions become more
If so why?
Take turns to roll 2 6-sided Include zero and
dice, calculate the sum; 13 on the grid

Then if that student has a

counter on the sum of the
2 dice then it can be
removed (one at a time)

first person to remove all

counters wins

Game is repeated
Plan for next sequence of learning (5-7 sessions) that builds on this unit of work:

1. Content/ mathematical ideas

More complex calculations to represent outcomes as fractions
Investigate outcomes when there are more than 1 variables, creating more outcomes
Looking out how fractions can be represented in different ways- percentages and decimals

2. Aspects of the Victorian Curriculum that could be addressed in the next sequence
Describe probabilities using fractions, decimals and percentages (VCMSP232)

3. Possible learning tasks that address the content and curriculum demands
Activity with 2 variables. E.g. Using a coin and a dice listing all possible outcomes (e.g. tree diagram)
Snap- using percentages and fractions to help students make the link

4. Reasons for these planning decisions (dot points are appropriate)

To deepen understanding of probability and link to expected outcomes
Create a wider range of representations
To scaffold towards creating experiments, by building up content knowledge
Appendix 1- word wheel
Appendix 2- word sort

Impossible Certain
Possible Likely
Very likely Unlikely
Equally likely Fifty-fifty
Appendix 3- examples of some spinners to be used
Appendix 4- Example of some matching cards
Chance of spinning red Chance of spinning red

1 6 3
3 8 or 4

Chance of spinning green Chance of spinning yellow

1 2 1
5 6 or 3

Chance of spinning red Cahcne of spinning blue

2 1
5 4

Chance of spinning red or orange Chance of spinning blue

1 3 4 2
2 or 6 6 or 3

Appendix 5- True or false statements

1. Probability is used to predict whether it will rain

2. You are more likely to roll a 4 than a 6 on a fair die

3. If you flip a heads the next flip has to be a tails
4. Its possible that it will rain tomorrow
5. If you spin red on a spinner it means it cant land on red the next spin
6. A 1 in 4 chance is greater than a 1 in 6 chance
7. Rolling a 6 is hardest number to roll
8. You can use outcomes to help you win a chance game
9. Flipping 10 heads in a row means something has gone wrong
10. If a family has 4 boys, then the next baby is more likely to be a girl

Appendix 6- Free the animals grid

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12