10 Richard N.

Cooper and Richard Layard

heightened awareness of the favorable alternatives to fossil fuels, but also

the creation of incentives (e.g., through taxation and regulation) for
millions of households and rmsthe real decision makersto adopt
the improved technologies. Abt's approach represents a variant on the
identication of scenarios. If a best prediction looks unattractive, choose
an alternative scenario, which of course must be feasible, and identify the
conditions for its realization.

Climate Change

One of the undesirable side eects from heavy use of fossil fuels may be
signicant change in the global climate. The emission of carbon dioxide
(from coal and oil) and other so-called greenhouse gases has ``thickened''
the blanket provided by the earth's atmosphere, leading to a gradual
warming of the earth's surface. This warming, in turn, may alter the
amount and pattern of rainfall, the frequency and magnitude of storms,
and the levels and currents of the oceans. That the concentration of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial
revolution two centuries ago has risen signicantly is not in doubt. But
the future implications of this continuing rise, as coal and oil are burned
in ever greater amounts, remain a source of considerable uncertainty.
In chapter 5 Stephen Schneider discusses what we know about these
complicated processes, and how we know it. The technique in this in-
stance is to build complex mathematical models of the earth's climate,
called general climate models (GCMs), which reect basic principles of
physics and are tted to historical data. These models are then ``shocked''
with a steady increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, as from growing
emissions from fossil fuels. The next century of climate is then simulated
by computer to discover what might happen to surface temperature,
precipitation, wind velocity, and other variables of interest. These
simulations provide the basis for making predictions about future cli-
mate change, contingent on continued high emissions of carbon dioxide.
Schneider distinguishes what we know with high condence from what
we are still trying to discover through ongoing research, and some of the
reasons for the many remaining uncertainties. Individual scientists be-
lieve their results with varying degrees of certitude, and the results of
polled expert opinion are also reported and discussed, another technique
for making judgments about the future.