HW- Week 5

ID - 5

OIS 4.4, 4.6, 4.8, 4.10, 4.12, 4.14, 4.16, 4.18, 4.20, 4.22, 4.36, 4.40, 4.44, 4.48

4.4 Heights of adults.

Researchers studying anthropometry collected body girth measurements and skeletal diameter
measurements, as well as age, weight, height and gender, for 507 physically active individuals. The
histogram below shows the sample distribution of heights in centimeters.

(a) What is the point estimate for the average height of active individuals? What about the median?

Mean = 171.1 and Median = 170.3

(b) What is the point estimate for the standard deviation of the heights of active individuals? What
about the IQR?

Standard Deviation = 9.4 and Inter Quartile Range = 177.8 163.8 = 14

(c) Is a person who is 1m 80cm (180 cm) tall considered unusually tall? And is a person who is 1m
55cm (155cm) considered unusually short? Explain your reasoning.

a) No, a person with a height of 180 cm is not unusually tall because it lies within 2 SD of the mean.
Z score = x-u/sd = 180-171.1/9.4 = .947

b) Yes, a person with a height will be considered unusually short as the value lies outside 2 SD of the
mean.
Z score = 155-171.1/9.4 = 16.1/9.4 = 1.712

(d) The researchers take another random sample of physically active individuals. Would you expect
the mean and the standard deviation of this new sample to be the ones given above? Explain your
reasoning.
Since sample estimates only approximate population parameter, they will vary from 1 sample to other.
Therefore, physically active individual will have different sample.

(e) The sample means obtained are point estimates for the mean height of all active individuals, if
the sample of individuals is equivalent to a simple random sample. What measure do we use to
quantify the variability of such an estimate (Hint: recall that SD x = n)? Compute this quantity
using the data from the original sample under the condition that the data are a simple random
sample.
Data is simple random sample,
!" &.(
Standard Error (SE) which is = = 0.417 this sample mean.
)*+

4.6 Art after school.

Elijah and Tyler, two high school juniors, conducted a survey on 15 students at their school, asking
the students whether they would like the school to oer an afterschool art program, counted the
number of yes answers, and recorded the sample proportion. 14 out of the 15 students responded
yes. They repeated this 100 times and built a distribution of sample means.

(a) What is this distribution called?

Sampling distribution, it is of 100 repetition

(b) Would you expect the shape of this distribution to be symmetric, right skewed, or left skewed?
Explain your reasoning.

Since we are dealing with sample distribution which is less than 30 i.e. 15. However, it is repeated to 100
times, so the distribution could be right skewed. The more sample size we take the closer we will get to
normal distribution.
(c) Calculate the variability of this distribution and state the appropriate term used to refer to this
value.

Since we are dealing with a sampling distribution, we use standard error to calculate the variability,
Mean = 0.9333 and SD = 0.25
!" *.0)
Standard Error (SE) = = = 0.0645
1)

(d) Suppose that the students were able to recruit a few more friends to help them with sampling,
and are now able to collect data from random samples of 25 students. Once again, they record the
number of yes answers, and record the sample proportion, and repeat this 100 times to build a
new distribution of sample proportions. How will the variability of this new distribution compare to
the variability of the original distribution?

The variability of the new sample distribution of 25 with 100 times sampling will give a smaller value as
1
standard error with 1/ 25 < with some repetition.
1)

4.8 Twitter users and news, Part I.

A poll conducted in 2013 found that 52% of U.S. adult Twitter users get at least some news on
Twitter. The standard error for this estimate was 2.4%, and a normal distribution may be used to
model the sample proportion. Construct a 99% confidence interval for the fraction of U.S. adult
Twitter users who get some news on Twitter, and interpret the confidence interval in context.
General formula for confidence interval is
point estimate Z* x SE
Given,
Point estimate = 52%
Standard Error (SE) = 2.4%

We know that
Z* = 2.58 for a 99% confidence interval

Thus

52% 2.58 x 2.4% (45.808%, 58.192%)

We are 99% confident that the proportion of US adults that get at least some news on Twitter is between
45.808% and 58.192%

4.10 Twitter users and news, Part II.

A poll conducted in 2013 found that 52% of U.S. adult Twitter users get at least some news on
Twitter, and the standard error for this estimate was 2.4%. Identify each of the following
statements as true or false. Provide an explanation to justify each of your answers.

(a) The data provide statistically significant evidence that more than half of U.S. adult Twitter users
get some news through Twitter. Use a significance level of = 0.01.

False, we can reject the hypothesis since the value of significance level () = 0.01 is less than 0.05

(b) Since the standard error is 2.4%, we can conclude that 97.6% of all U.S. adult Twitter users
were included in the study.

False, since the standard error only deals the values of mean and standard deviation of the sample.

(c) If we want to reduce the standard error of the estimate, we should collect less data.

False, the standard error is inversely proportional to the square root of the size of data.If
we increase the size of data, then our standard error will decrease.

(d) If we construct a 90% confidence interval for the percentage of U.S. adults Twitter users who
get some news through Twitter, this confidence interval will be wider than a corresponding 99%
confidence interval.

False, the width of the confidence interval increasing with the increase confidence percentage.
CI = point estimate Z* x SE, where z is smaller.

4.12 Mental health.

The 2010 General Social Survey asked the question: For how many days during the past 30 days
was your mental health, which includes stress, depression, and problems with emotions, not good?
Based on responses from 1,151 US residents, the survey reported a 95% confidence interval of 3.40
to 4.24 days in 2010.

(a) Interpret this interval in context of the data.

We are 95% confident that Americans mental health was not good for 3.40 to 4.24 days in 2010.

(b) What does 95% confident mean? Explain in the context of the application.

95% of the intervals would contain the actual mean or there is 0.95 probability of a particular sample
containing the mean.
In the context of the application,
95% of 1,151 (about 1093) US resident fell under the interval of 3.40 to 4.24 days.

(c) Suppose the researchers think a 99% confidence level would be more appropriate for this
interval. Will this new interval be smaller or larger than the 95% confidence interval?

The new interval will be larger than 95% confidence interval since the value of z* is greater for 99%
confidence interval than for 95% confidence interval. (2.58 > 1.96)

(d) If a new survey were to be done with 500 Americans, would the standard error of the estimate
be larger, smaller, or about the same. Assume the standard deviation has remained constant since
2010.

If the standard deviation is constant, then the standard error is inversely proportional to the
size of the sample. And if the sample size decreases, then the standard error of the estimate
will increase.
!"
SE,1151= = /

SE, 500= /

From 1 and 2 SE,500 > SE,1151

Standard error will increase.

4.14 Thanksgiving spending, Part I.

The 2009 holiday retail season, which kicked o on November 27, 2009 (the day after
Thanksgiving), had been marked by somewhat lower self-reported consumer spending than was
seen during the comparable period in 2008. To get an estimate of consumer spending, 436 randomly
sampled American adults were surveyed. Daily consumer spending for the six-day period after
Thanksgiving, spanning the Black Friday weekend and Cyber Monday, averaged $84.71. A 95%
confidence interval based on this sample is ($80.31, $89.11). Determine whether the following
statements are true or false, and explain your reasoning.
(a) We are 95% confident that the average spending of these 436 American adults is between $80.31
and $89.11.

False. For the 436 Americans, we are 100% sure of the mean, but the 95% confidence interval is for the
whole population and it is not meant for only 436 sample population.

(b) This confidence interval is not valid since the distribution of spending in the sample is right
skewed.

False, the sample size is very large (436), hence we can consider the distribution to be normal and the
confidence interval is valid.

(c) 95% of random samples have a sample mean between $80.31 and $89.11.

False, the confidence interval tells about the actual population parameter between the interval and not the
point estimate.

(d) We are 95% confident that the average spending of all American adults is between $80.31 and
$89.11.

True, the confidence interval is used to determine the interval for the actual population parameter.

(e) A 90% confidence interval would be narrower than the 95% confidence interval since we dont
need to be as sure about our estimate.

True, 90% confidence interval would have a lower z* value than that of a 95% confidence interval.

(f) In order to decrease the margin of error of a 95% confidence interval to a third of what it is
now, we would need to use a sample 3 times larger.

False, the margin of error (z* x SE) does not depend on the size of the sample.

(g) The margin of error is 4.4.

True, Margin of Error = z* x SE = Confidence Interval point estimate = 89.11 - 84.71 = 4.4
4.16 Age at first marriage, Part I.

The National Survey of Family Growth conducted by the Centers for Disease Control gathers
information on family life, marriage and divorce, pregnancy, infertility, use of contraception, and
mens and womens health. One of the variables collected on this survey is the age at first marriage.
The histogram below shows the distribution of ages at first marriage of 5,534 randomly sampled
women between 2006 and 2010. The average age at first marriage among these women is 23.44 with
a standard deviation of 4.72.

Estimate the average age at first marriage of women using a 95% confidence interval, and interpret
this interval in context. Discuss any relevant assumptions.

We know that,
Point estimate = 23.44
Standard Deviation = 4.72
For 95% Confidence Interval z* = 1.96

(.+0
point estimate z* SE = 23.44 1.96 ( ) (23.32, 23.56)
));(

4.18 Identify hypotheses, Part II.

Write the null and alternative hypotheses in words and using symbols for each of the following
situations.

(a) Since 2008, chain restaurants in California have been required to display calorie counts of each
menu item. Prior to menus displaying calorie counts, the average calorie intake of diners at a
restaurant was 1100 calories. After calorie counts started to be displayed on menus, a nutritionist
collected data on the number of calories consumed at this restaurant from a random sample of
diners. Do these data provide convincing evidence of a dierence in the average calorie intake of a
diners at this restaurant?

0 = The average calorie intake at diners remained same before and after calorie display on menu
= = The average calorie intake at diners changed after calorie display on menu
* : = 1100
= : 1100

(b) Based on the performance of those who took the GRE exam between July 1, 2004 and June 30,
2007, the average Verbal Reasoning score was calculated to be 462. In 2011 the average verbal
score was slightly higher. Do these data provide convincing evidence that the average GRE Verbal
Reasoning score has changed since 2004?

0 = The average GRE Verbal Reasoning score hasn't changed since 2004.
= = The average GRE Verbal Reasoning score has changed since 2004.
* : = 462
= : 462

4.20 Age at first marriage, Part II.

Exercise 4.16 presents the results of a 2006 - 2010 survey showing that the average age of women at
first marriage is 23.44. Suppose a social scientist believes that this value has increased in 2012, but
she would also be interested if she found a decrease. Below is how she set up her hypotheses.
Indicate any errors you see.

The given hypothesis testing uses the sample mean (x) instead of the population mean (). Also to depict
the decrease well have to use the sign (not equals to) instead of the greater than sign (>)

* : = 23.44 years old

= : 23.44 years old

4.22 Thanksgiving spending, Part II.

Exercise 4.14 provides a 95% confidence interval for the average spending by American adults
during the six-day period after Thanksgiving 2009: ($80.31, $89.11).

(a) A local news anchor claims that the average spending during this period in 2009 was $100. What
do you think of her claim?

We would reject the claim since it does not lie in the 95% confidence interval.

(b) Would the news anchors claim be considered reasonable based on a 90% confidence interval?
Why or why not? (Do not actually calculate the interval.)

No, because a 90% confidence interval would be narrower than a 95% confidence interval thus the claim
cannot be considered in a 90% confidence interval.

4.36 Stats final scores.

Each year about 1500 students take the introductory statistics course at a large university. This
year scores on the final exam are distributed with a median of 74 points, a mean of 70 points, and a
standard deviation of 10 points. There are no students who scored above 100 (the maximum score
attainable on the final) but a few students scored below 20 points.

(a) Is the distribution of scores on this final exam symmetric, right skewed, or left skewed?
The distribution is left skewed as there is going to be a long tail of points less than 20.

(b) Would you expect most students to have scored above or below 70 points?

Above, as the median is greater than the mean in a left skewed distribution.

(c) Can we calculate the probability that a randomly chosen student scored above 75 using the
normal distribution?

No, the data is skewed a lot, the sample size is <100, so we cannot predict the normal distribution.

(d) What is the probability that the average score for a random sample of 40 students is above 75?
SE= 10/(40)1/2 = 1.5811
Z= (75-70)/1.5811 = 3.162 .
So, probability that average score for a random sample of 40 students > 75 = 1-0.9987 = 0.0008
Using R, we get pnorm(75, mean=70,sd=1.581139, lower.tail = FALSE)= 0.000782702

(e) How would cutting the sample size in half aect the standard deviation of the mean?

1
Increases the sd by times.
0

4.40 CFLBs.

A manufacturer of compact fluorescent light bulbs advertises that the distribution of the lifespans
of these light bulbs is nearly normal with a mean of 9,000 hours and a standard deviation of 1,000
hours.

(a) What is the probability that a randomly chosen light bulb lasts more than 10,500 hours?

pnorm(10500, mean=9000, sd=1000, lower.tail = FALSE) = 0.0668072

(b) Describe the distribution of the mean lifespan of 15 light bulbs.

Given that the data is nearly normal, so for 15 samples we have SD = (1000)/15 = 258.198. So
distribution can be represented as N(,sd)= N(9000,258.198).

(c) What is the probability that the mean lifespan of 15 randomly chosen light bulbs is more than
10,500 hours?
Z=(10500-9000)/258.1988 = 5.8
So, probability of a bulb lasting more than 10500 hrs from a sample of 15= 1-1(approx.)= 0
(approx.)
Using R, we get pnorm(10500, mean=9000,sd=258.1988, lower.tail = FALSE)= 3.133414e-09

(d) Sketch the two distributions (population and sampling) on the same scale.
mean<-9000; sd<-1000
> x1 <- seq(-4, 4,length=100)*sd + mean
> x2 <- seq(-4,4, length=100 )*258.18 + mean
> hx1 <- dnorm(x1, 9000, 1000)
> hx2 <- dnorm(x2, 9000, 258.198)
> plot(x1, hx2, xlab="x value", type = "n",
+ ylab="Frequency", col="blue")
> lines(x1, hx1, col="blue")
> lines(x2, hx2, col="cyan")

(e) Could you estimate the probabilities from parts (a) and (c) if the lifespans of light bulbs had a
skewed distribution?
For part (a) we cant calculate, it wouldnt be a normal distribution. In part (c) the sample size
(15) < 30 for which again we couldnt have assumed the normal distribution.

4.44 Nearsighted.

It is believed that nearsightedness aects about 8% of all children. In a random sample of 194
children, 21 are nearsighted.

(a) Construct hypotheses appropriate for the following question: do these data provide evidence
that the 8% value is inaccurate?

H* : = 0.08
H@ : 0.08
(b) What proportion of children in this sample are nearsighted?

01
= 10.82% are nearsighted
1&(

(c) Given that the standard error of the sample proportion is 0.0195 and the point estimate follows
a nearly normal distribution, calculate the test statistic (the Z-statistic).

= ((21/194- 0.08)/0.0195) = 1.448586

(d) What is the p-value for this hypothesis test?

P-value = (1-Z) = 0.0749

(e) What is the conclusion of the hypothesis test?

The p-value here (0.0749) is greater than the significance value (0.05 for 95% confidence interval), thus
we do not reject the null hypothesis and we can say that nearsightedness affects 8% of all children

4.48 Same observation, dierent sample size.

Suppose you conduct a hypothesis test based on a sample where the sample size is n = 50, and arrive
at a p-value of 0.08. You then refer back to your notes and discover that you made a careless
mistake, the sample size should have been n = 500. Will your p-value increase, decrease, or stay the
same? Explain.

Since sample size is indirectly proportional to standard error and directly to z score, if we increase the
sample size the standard error will decrease, thus increasing the Z score. Since p-value is 1-Z, the value of
p in a sample size of 500 will decrease.