Sie sind auf Seite 1von 309

Composite Module - forecast based on astronomical cycles

The basic idea of this module is that the stock market has a kind of "memory" in regards to astronomical parameters such as a planetary position (in different coordinates) and an angle between the planets. Thus, knowing how the stock market has behaved in the past (when astro parameters were at some specific values), we can assume what is going to happen (when these same parameters have same values again). In brief, the whole process of working with this module is shown here:

Composites at First Glance The Composite module serves to identify the presence of astronomical cycles in analyzed data. As an example, download the price data for crude oil starting from March 1983 to May 2004. Click on this button:

starting from March 1983 to May 2004. Click on this button: Window's Outlook: You will get

Window's Outlook: You will get this window:

button: Window's Outlook: You will get this window: In our opinion, this window represents the maximum

In our opinion, this window represents the maximum information regarding the annual cycles for the crude oil price. The colored diagram (called "Summary Composite") shows how the price changes when the Sun moves through the skies.You will get a similar picture after all necessary parameters are defined and the calculations are performed. In the right side of this window, define the planetary pair to be analyzed. In the example, it is the Sun-Sun (this means that the program is considering the position of the Sun in Zodiac; to consider the angle, define two planets). It is possible to use different types of Zodiacs in this program. For example, it might be more convenient to use heliocentric coordinates for planets while creating some models. For example, setting options this way:

creating some models. For example, setting options this way: means that we will research the influence

means that we will research the influence of Venus-Mars heliocentric cycle. The central part of this window shows a diagram for the composite and three lines (red, blue and black). Each line represents the same composite, calculated on different independent intervals. The number of lines corresponds to the number of independent intervals for calculation. It helps if you choose the one you consider more reliable or preferable. There is a narrow gray-and-red stripe along the bottom area (right under the composite diagram). It shows the "predictable zones" - these are the regions where your forecast is more reliable. Look at the red zones; you will see that there all three composites point at the same movement of the analyzed data, so these zones are preferable when you are making a forecast. Projection Line: Choosing any astro cycle, you can immediately see the projection line based on this cycle in the Main window:

Composite Diagram: Let us look closer at the central area of this window, the composite

Composite Diagram: Let us look closer at the central area of this window, the composite diagram itself:

central area of this window, the composite diagram itself: The program calculates it by comparing the

The program calculates it by comparing the price data and the Sun position in the selected Zodiac (as in our example - in other cases, the price may be compared to the changing angle between two selected planets.).

to the changing angle between two selected planets.). From this diagram, we might expect that, when

From this diagram, we might expect that, when the Sun is in the beginning of the Libra sign ( ) - it happens at the end of September, - the price reaches its maximum. Thus, it might be a turning point; however, is it really so? To answer this question, look at those three colored lines. If they all point in the same direction, the answer is "yes". Predictable/Unpredictable Zones: In our case, two composites (the red and blue ones) confirm the turning point (look at the vertical line that marks the corresponding time point). However, the third line (the black one) goes in the other direction. It means that this conclusion is not confirmed at least inside one of the chosen intervals.This area is marked on the "predictable zones" line as unpredictable. In other words, to make such a conclusion (in regards to the maximum price for crude oil when the Sun is in Libra), we have to analyze other factors.Now, look at the December area. Here all three lines go down. So, this area is marked as a red one - i.e., predictable. We can make a conclusion based on the analysis of three independent data intervals. It is stated that every December crude oil prices go down (in the very beginning of that month):

oil prices go down (in the very beginning of that month): In brief, looking at such

In brief, looking at such a diagram and predictable zones, it is possible to make a reliable conclusion. The more intervals we take, the more reliable is our conclusion - when the projected lines for every interval will go in the same direction. The price diagram itself (a purple-green area) also shows downward movement in December. In other words, we have found some factors that coincide with changes in crude oil prices at that time of the year and can use them for making a forecast. Correlation – quality of projection line: You can see how the projection line fits the price chart here:

a forecast. Correlation – quality of projection line: You can see how the projection line fits

This line shows the correlation between the projection line and the price (to be exact, the target, usually this is a detrended oscillator); in our example, it is 0.26. If the correlation is closer to 1.0, this means that this projection

line reflects the price movement very well; see more in Definitions chapter. Next parameter

interval that is used to calculate the correlation coefficient. You always get a good correlation on A interval, because we use the price information from this interval to calculate the Composite (and the projection line as well). To estimate the real performance of our model, it is better to use some independent interval (B or C). See more about these intervals in Definitions chapter.Let us take a more complicated example: analyze how the Moon phases affect crude oil prices. Does this relationship really exist?Composite for the angle between planets: Before making any steps, let us understand what the Moon phases are. In a core, they reflect changes of the angle between the Sun and the Moon. For example, the New Moon takes place when the Sun, the Moon and the Earth are situated at the same "line" in the space, and the angle between the Sun and the Moon is zero. The Full Moon is very similar to the New Moon, the difference is that the Earth is situated between the other two, and the angle between the Sun and the Moon is 180 degrees. Thus, in the program, we will create a composite of the angle between the Sun and the Moon. To do this, set up the following terms in the upper right part of the Composite window:

terms in the upper right part of the Composite window: is the Here is the composite

is the

in the upper right part of the Composite window: is the Here is the composite diagram

Here is the composite diagram for the angle between the Sun and the Moon; it looks extremely interesting:

the Sun and the Moon; it looks extremely interesting: First of all, note that all three

First of all, note that all three composite diagrams (red, blue and black - calculated for different data intervals) move in totally different directions everywhere except the area where the angle between the Sun and the Moon reaches 180 degrees. In other words, we may conclude that around the Full Moon the crude oil price reaches its local minimum. For any other periods, it looks like the Sun-Moon angle has no effect upon the price. Basic Interval: The feature discussed here has been observed only for one year (May 2003-May 2004; it is a month when this feature has been added to the program). To make it more understandable, we have to use a new definition: a basic interval. It is the smallest data amount that is sufficient enough to make a primary conclusion. A basic interval is a very important definition. We have found experimentally that the same phenomena have different effects, and these effects depend on the time frame. In other words, the effect of the Moon’s aspects on the same stock market is different now than it was 10 years ago. So, the basic interval is the interval with enough data to make a conclusion. For example, to calculate the Sun - Moon composite, the last 12 cycles are enough. This approach gives better results than taking a huge amount of data and facing the

impossibility to make any conclusion

This

is a new and very important feature of the Composite module.

is a new and very important feature of the Composite module. This option allows you to

This option allows you to specify the period to calculate the composite curve.

Going into Depth In this section, the different parts of the Composite window are described. Each one of them provides enormous possibilities. "Terms" panel : Here you can define the planetary pairs and types of Zodiac to use as well as the harmonics number. For example, here are settings to search the effect of the angle between Mercury and Venus, in Heliocentric Zodiac, for 3H harmonics:

Mercury and Venus, in Heliocentric Zodiac, for 3H harmonics: While defining the harmonics number, we simply
Mercury and Venus, in Heliocentric Zodiac, for 3H harmonics: While defining the harmonics number, we simply

While defining the harmonics number, we simply point out that some harmonics are important for this set of data. It means that there is a kind of cycle symmetry. For example, 2H harmonics means that the data change for the angle between these two planets in the range of 0° and 180° is similar to the data change for the angle in the range of 180° and 360°. If 3H harmonics is significant, it means that the effect of the angle of 0º will be the same as for 120º and 240º.

"Algorithm" panel like this:

for 120º and 240º. "Algorithm" panel like this: : First of all, you should not change

: First of all, you should not change the settings of this panel often. It looks

should not change the settings of this panel often. It looks The "Analyzed Index" means the

The "Analyzed Index" means the index you use to calculate the composite. For example, you can create the composite for "High" only. There are some recommendations; let's start with two of them. These recommendations are based on our own experience:

1) For High, Low, Open, Close and all indices that possess a natural trend, use

Close and all indices that possess a natural trend, use algorithm. For example, to create the

algorithm.

For example, to create the composite for "High" index: 1) click “Edit” button and chose “High” index; 2) highlight the "Auto Adjust" option. The program normalizes the "High" index according to the period specific to the composite's planetary pair and uses this index to calculate this composite:

pair and uses this index to calculate this composite: . You can easily create the composite
pair and uses this index to calculate this composite: . You can easily create the composite

. You can easily create the composite for ADX index (as in the example) and analyze how the planetary position (or the angle between the planets) impacts this index:

2) For free of trend values (like Volatility, RSI, ADX) use this algorithm:

between the planets) impacts this index: 2) For free of trend values (like Volatility, RSI, ADX)

As an example, we consider the composite for Mars-Jupiter angle calculated for Dow Jones Industrial index

(1970-2005):

angle calculated for Dow Jones Industrial index (1970-2005): As you see, when the angle between Mars

As you see, when the angle between Mars and Jupiter reaches 120 degrees, the ADX index goes to 40% (these regions are shown on the picture). This tendency has been verified for three independent intervals.According to Technical Analysis canons, the value 40 (and above) indicates the strong trend tendency (no matter, bullish or

bearish). Then the ADX decreases. So we can specify these zones as " trending to non-trending

potential changes in the market from

to non-trending potential changes in the market from 3) This algorithm is original algorithm proposed by

3) This algorithm is original algorithm proposed by Bill Meridian. This algorithm is used in his books to calculate composite diagrams. You can use this algorithm instead of “Auto Adjust”. IMHO, I think that for long-term cycles (like 12 years Jupiter cycle) “Auto Adjust” algorithm works better. In any case, you can work with both options."View" panel : This panel allows specifying indices displayed in the Main window:

allows specifying indices displayed in the Main window: As an example, let's create the composite for

As an example, let's create the composite for Close index. The green line in the Main window corresponds to the projection line for the chosen astro cycle:

to the projection line for the chosen astro cycle: Checking "Target for Composite" option, you can

Checking "Target for Composite" option, you can display in the Main window the index that is used to calculate the Composite. For example, if we research the Annual (Sun) cycle for Close index, the program normalizes the Close using relative price oscillator with period=73 days. This is the target. For shorter cycles (like the Moon’s cycle), we need to concentrate on faster cycles. For the Moon’s cycle, I would recommend the

oscillator with a 5 days period. The line based on two or more astro cycles.

oscillator with a 5 days period. The

line based on two or more astro cycles. It is explained further.

options are necessary when you create the projection

options are necessary when you create the projection Active Zones Let us explain what "Active Zones"

Active Zones Let us explain what "Active Zones" are considering one simple example. Download the crude oil price from 1983 to 2004. Set these options in the "Active Zones" panel:

2004. Set these options in the "Active Zones" panel: Click on "Zigzag Options" button. The window

Click on "Zigzag Options" button. The window will be displayed where you may set these options for zigzag:

be displayed where you may set these options for zigzag: Set "critical change" parameter to 12.8%

Set "critical change" parameter to 12.8% (this is the minimum height for a zigzag wing. In our example, it corresponds to 65 turning points).In the "Terms" panel, set the Moon-Sun pair because we will analyze the Moon phases:

Here is the composite diagram for these settings:

panel, set the Moon-Sun pair because we will analyze the Moon phases: Here is the composite
panel, set the Moon-Sun pair because we will analyze the Moon phases: Here is the composite

"Active Zones" explanation: From 1983 to 2004, we found 65 top and bottom turning points. The red/blue vertical lines represent how these turning points are located in respect to the Sun-Moon angle. In other words, the program calculates all turning points (65) found for the changing angle between the Moon and the Sun and draws lines corresponding to these angles (red lines for top points, blue lines for bottom points). Thus, the active zones show where most of the turning points are located. If there are no turning points in some area (or just a few), the area is called "Quiet Zone". "Active Zones" reading: For this particular example, we can make some conclusions. The crude oil price reaches its top 2-4 days after the New Moon. On the diagram above, 0º corresponds to the New Moon. The "Region 1" (there are many top turning points) is located within the interval 10º-50º. Then, there is one more active zone: "Region 2". It is not so strong as the previous one and corresponds to the bottom turning points. The "Region 3" corresponds to the relatively quiet zone, it corresponds to 230º and happens 4-5 days after the Full Moon lasting for 2-3 days. In the quiet zone, the price does not reach the turning points, but just follows the existing trend. "Active Zones" criterion: We can do this analysis for the turning points and for the points when big price movements happen as well. In this case, set the parameters of the "Active Zones" as follows:

set the parameters of the "Active Zones" as follows: For these settings, the program will look

For these settings, the program will look for all days when price changes at least for 4% (within a day range of the HLOC price bar; otherwise, it compares today's price and the price one day before). The minimum change is 4%. The diagram follows (this is the annual cycle, or Sun-Sun, composite):

follows (this is the annual cycle, or Sun-Sun, composite): and Aries is marked by the yellow
follows (this is the annual cycle, or Sun-Sun, composite): and Aries is marked by the yellow

and Aries is marked by the yellow bar. This time period corresponds

approximately to the interval from the end of September to the end of March. We can see that strong move points are located more often in this region. In other words, from October to March, the crude oil price makes

more strong movements (may be because it is a cold period in the Northern hemisphere "Active Zones" histogram: If we analyze the long-term data series, it might be impossible to see all related lines. Look at this diagram; these are turning points for Dow-Jones index from 1900 to 2004, minimal change

4%:

The region between Libra

1900 to 2004, minimal change 4%: The region between Libra We cannot see it clearly because
1900 to 2004, minimal change 4%: The region between Libra We cannot see it clearly because

We cannot see it clearly because there are 967 turning points.But we can display this information as a histogram and look at the density of the turning points. Set options as follows:

we can display this information as a histogram and look at the density of the turning

For these settings, the Active Zones Histogram for the annual cycle (Sun-Sun) will look like this:

for the annual cycle (Sun-Sun) will look like this: The brighter red zones correspond to the

The brighter red zones correspond to the areas where turning points happen more often. For example, such a zone corresponds to the period starting from the end of September till the beginning of November. In other words, the very strong possibility exists that there might be trend changes at this period, especially for bottom turning points.Some useful statistics options for this feature can be found in the "Options" tab:

Go to the "Statistics" page:

"Options" tab: Go to the "Statistics" page: We have Chi sq=2.5, which corresponds to the probability
"Options" tab: Go to the "Statistics" page: We have Chi sq=2.5, which corresponds to the probability

We have Chi sq=2.5, which corresponds to the probability of 89%. Putting it in a different way, we can accept this fact as a true one with the probability of 89%. To be exact, it means: "With probability 89%, we can assume that turning points happen more often from the end of September to the beginning of November".In the "Statistics" window, we recommend you to keep the parameters for minimal sample size and the amount of the control groups as they are and change the "Critical Chi Sq" option only.

are and change the "Critical Chi Sq" option only. Predictable Zones As mentioned before, the main

Predictable Zones As mentioned before, the main idea behind the predictable zones is to calculate the composite for a few independent intervals and see how the projection line is changing in respect to each interval. For this program, we have applied and developed special math methods that will calculate these zones very fast. It is this "know- how" of ours that makes this program so advanced. Before any discussion, some useful options should be explained:

any discussion, some useful options should be explained: Split on %x intervals option allows specifying the

Split on %x intervals option allows specifying the number of independent intervals to use. The greater amount of independent intervals, the more narrow predictable intervals are (however, these intervals are more reliable). Adjust this parameter according to the data length for your analysis. Calculate: if you do not need to use predicable zones, you can disable this option. The program will then calculate the composites significantly faster. Projection: if this option is activated, the program uses predictable zones to make projection curves. As an example, here is the projection curve based on Moon phases cycle for crude oil:

However, as we have mentioned above, the Moon phases give the best forecast around the

However, as we have mentioned above, the Moon phases give the best forecast around the Full Moon. Check the "Projection" option, and you will get this picture:

"Projection" option, and you will get this picture: This diagram shows a part of the projection

This diagram shows a part of the projection curve around the Full Moon. Other points are simply skipped.Be careful using this option, especially for the Composite Box (when we combine many cycles). It is very difficult to distinguish between the true price gap and the area within the end of the previous predictable zone and the beginning of the next one.

The predictable zones are displayed in the bottom part of the diagram:

zones are displayed in the bottom part of the diagram: Bright red regions correspond to predictable

Bright red regions correspond to predictable zones, gray ones - to unpredictable.

to predictable zones, gray ones - to unpredictable. Here you can specify what kind of the

Here you can specify what kind of the diagram you would like to see. "Split" allows displaying of the composite diagrams calculated on different independent intervals. "Summary" corresponds to the composite diagram (colored one) calculated for all price points of the optimizing (red) interval. By the way, when the predictable zone is significant, the program displays this:

predictable zone is significant, the program displays this: Composite Box: Forecast based on Composites After finishing
predictable zone is significant, the program displays this: Composite Box: Forecast based on Composites After finishing

Composite Box: Forecast based on Composites After finishing the analysis of different planetary pairs, you can put them in a special place called the "Composite Box". It is easy to work with the Composite Box. Let's say that, while analyzing some set of data, we have found that the annual cycle is important; save this cycle by clicking on this button:

is important; save this cycle by clicking on this button: . Further research shows that the

. Further research shows that the Moon phase cycle is also important; put this cycle

that the Moon phase cycle is also important; put this cycle . Now, let us see

. Now, let us see how these cycles work together, what projection line might be produced by these two cycles.

into "Composite Box" as well:

Click on this button:

by these two cycles. into "Composite Box" as well: Click on this button: , and you

, and you will go to this window:

Here the black line is the summary curve - it shows the summary influence of

Here the black line is the summary curve - it shows the summary influence of two cycles: the annual cycle and the Moon phase cycle. We can magnify any part of this diagram dragging the mouse. It is also possible to save this model into a file and download it in the future. The program allows to manipulate by composite pairs:

delete any term, delete several unchecked terms, clear model (i.e., delete all terms), rate these terms by weights, download/save the model, and put this model into the clipboard ("->Cl" button). When the model is saved into the clipboard, it is saved in ULE format (the format of Universal Language of Events). After that, the model is available for the process of creating a forecast based on Neural Net (NN) technology. To create the inputs for

on Neural Net (NN) technology. To create the inputs for NN, click on this button: you

NN, click on this button:

you can see how the projection curve (a black line) fits the analyzed price index:

(the program will take the model out of the clipboard).In this window,

will take the model out of the clipboard).In this window, You can specify any index to

You can specify any index to be used to calculate the correlation (to do it, click on the "Edit" button). Please pay attention to the time interval used to calculate correlation (see details in the section "Definitions" of the documentation).

Composite Report

Definitions " of the documentation). Composite Report While working with the users of other programs for

While working with the users of other programs for stock and commodities market analysis, our experience reveal that sometimes it is difficult (especially for novices) to make a decision as to what cycle is important and what is not important. To make this choice easier, in Timing Solution we provide a special procedure. This procedure allows doing this automatically. The program compares cycles and produces a report that is helpful in making this decision.

Click on the button

Click on the button . You will go to this dialog box: Here, in this window,

. You will go to this dialog box:

Click on the button . You will go to this dialog box: Here, in this window,

Here, in this window, define parameters of the report.

Report Options:

"Action": Specify here what you would like to do with this report. You can create the report, save it as *.htm file and later put it on the Internet (as an example, onto your web page or e-mail it to your friends/clients), or you can choose to not create any report at all. "Comments": Check this option if you would like to get our hints about how to use this report better. "Active Zones" and "Predictable Zones": These options allow you to specify the information regarding these zones. For example, for "Active Zones", it is possible to provide the statistical information.

Timing Model Options: You can use this report as a tool to create forecasting models. "Add to Composite Box": If you check this option, the program puts the important cycles into the "Composite Box", and the summary curve can be used for forecasting. "Create FAM model": Allows to convert the model based on planetary cycles to ULE format (*.hyp files) or to put this model into the clipboard (Clipboard option). Later you can use this model as inputs for the Neural Net forecasting model. The technology of creating such a forecast is described in "Timing Solutions" module. (FAM model stands for Floating Angle Model; it is the planetary cycle model converted into ULE format).

it is the planetary cycle model converted into ULE format). Parameters of FAM model These are

Parameters of FAM model These are parameters for the FAM model. First of all, a few words about what actually the FAM model is. Its purpose is to explore the active points of the Zodiac. The "Orb" parameter indicates the thoroughness of this exploration. In other words, if there is/are any active point/s within the orb's limits, the program will use this area as one input for the Neural Net. Thus, if the program chooses 8 composites as the important ones, the number of the NN inputs is more than 500 (550, to be exact; it depends on "Orb" and XF values). The bigger Orb makes this model's diagram smoother, but some details might be skipped (when it is too smooth). The XF parameter defines the ability of this model to see details: the smaller XF, the more details this

model can see. However, the Neural Net will contain more inputs for smaller XF, and it can cause the over- training effect. So, it is necessary to find a balance between the resolution of this model andover-training.One practical recommendation for creating FAM model: If, while creating the FAM model, you get too many events for the Neural Net (like 2.000 inputs), the Neural Net will be training too long. In this case, we recommend increasing the Orb parameter (for example, make it 15 degrees). Also you can try different Filter criteria (see below).

Filters Options: This is a very important option that allows defining the criterion in regards to the composite cycle (we can specify this cycle as an important or non-important). "Min Number of Cycles": Here you can specify what composites you take into account. It shows the minimum number of cycles to be analyzed to create a composite, regarding the analyzed data. For example, we analyze the annual cycle; this period should be at least 3 years, otherwise we have not enough information to reveal this cycle. "Filter" There are several criteria to estimate the degree of importance for each cycle. These criteria are defined by Filter setting. The program will choose the composites that correspond to the filter. The illustration shows three of them. 1) The first one is used as the default option:.

of them. 1) The first one is used as the default option:. It means that two

It means that two conditions are applied to the composite: a) This composite should be predictable; in other words, it should show the same price movement on the independent time interval AND AT THE SAME TIME b) This composite should show a positive correlation between the projection curve and normalized price on B interval (a positive correlation means that the projection line fits well to the price line). The correlation between the target (which is the price or price oscillator) and the projection line provided by this composite is

calculated on this interval:

provided by this composite is calculated on this interval: 2) This filter is based on another

2) This filter is based on another criterion:

this interval: 2) This filter is based on another criterion: This filter allows us to choose

This filter allows us to choose the composites that are produced within Active Zones (AZ) only. In other words, we can choose (for example) the composites that are related to the turning points, and active zones will show some areas where the turning points happen more often. We recommend using these criteria if you create the model to predict turning points. See the explanation for Active Zones (AZ).

3) One more filter:

the explanation for Active Zones (AZ). 3) One more filter: Under these criteria, the program will

Under these criteria, the program will choose only predictable composites, i.e. those composites that provide the same diagram on different time intervals. See the explanation for Predictable Zones (PZ). In other words, this type of composites means that the planetary pair produces the same effect on the market no matter what time intervals are used. All other variants are different logical combinations of the variants described above. Like this:

We recommend you to play with different criteria. Zodiacs: In this section, you can specify

We recommend you to play with different criteria.

Zodiacs: In this section, you can specify the parameters of cycles used for the analysis:

"Angle Difference": The program analyzes composites for planets; when you check this option, it will analyze the composites for the angle between planets as well. "Middle Points": Check this option to create the composites for middle points. Also, you can specify different types of Zodiacs and Harmonics. While producing the calculations, the program "Timing Solution" analyzes hundreds of astronomical cycles and shows you the most important ones. The results of the calculation look like this:

ones. The results of the calculation look like this: As an example, the program has found

As an example, the program has found 7 important cycles. This is for crude oil data, 1983-2004. This feature of the program saves you a lot of time.

Composite Module - Examples

The following examples are based on questions asked by users and friends of the program.

o

The strongest price movements had happened when Jupiter came through the first part of Zodiac (from Aries up to Libra), but when Jupiter came through the second part of Zodiac the strong price movements were seldom. How to verify this observation?

o

Doing the historical research for DJI index, I have found that it changes the trend more often when the middle point between Jupiter and Saturn goes through these points of

Zodiac: 7°30' 22°30' 37°30'

7°30' +N x 15°. How to verify this statement?

o

The strongest price movements had happened when Jupiter came through the first part of Zodiac (from Aries up to Libra), but when Jupiter came through the second part of Zodiac the strong price movements were seldom. How to verify this observation?

Download the DJI index from 1900 to November 2004. Run the Astronomy (Composite) module and set options as it is shown in this picture:

We will work with the "Active Zones (AZ)" area. Setting the parameters as above will

We will work with the "Active Zones (AZ)" area. Setting the parameters as above will start the analysis for the strong Up/Down points while the minimum price change is 7%. The program has found 33 such points during 104 years of available price history. The red and blue stripes correspond to the strong up (red) and down (blue) movements regarding the Jupiter position.This diagram shows that 30 from 33 stripes are located in Aries - Libra area. So, this observation is a true one

Timing Solution allows analyzing more complicated combinations. For example, we can analyze NOT ALL points, but only those that have occurred at some special moments of time. Like to analyze the up/down points that occur during the fall only. Click on this button ("Context"):

and fill in this form:

:
:
on this button ("Context"): and fill in this form: : The program will analyze the up/down

The program will analyze the up/down points that happen while the Sun is in Virgo, Libra or Scorpio. It is possible to analyze price movements in regards to any planet being retrograde as well as many other things. Try all options on the tabs in the middle of this window.

Doing the historical research for DJI index, I have found that it changes the trend more often when the middle point between Jupiter and Saturn goes through these points of Zodiac: 7°30' 22°30' 37°30' 7°30' +N x 15°. How to verify this statement?

Download the DJI from 1980 to November 2004. Run the Astronomy (Composite) module and set options as it is shown in this picture:

module and set options as it is shown in this picture: Do not forget to click

Do not forget to click on this button:

in this picture: Do not forget to click on this button: because we analyze middle points

because we analyze middle points now (not the angle

button: because we analyze middle points now (not the angle between planets). Then choose this option:

between planets). Then choose this option: , because we will study turning points now (not big up/down points). Next step is to specify what we understand under "top/bottom turning points". Click on the "Zigzag Options" button to define the parameters of zigzag to calculate top/bottom points:

button to define the parameters of zigzag to calculate top/bottom points: Let the minimum wing for

The last step is to uncheck this option:

The last step is to uncheck this option: This is the result of calculation: The program

This is the result of calculation:

to uncheck this option: This is the result of calculation: The program has found 36 turning

The program has found 36 turning points for 24 years of available price history. I marked the 7°30' point. The red stripes correspond to the top turning points, while the blue ones correspond to the bottoms. The turning points are located evenly within the whole 0°-15° area. So, the available data do not confirm the assumption. If you analyze the longer time period of data or smaller zigzag wings, the result may look like this:

data or smaller zigzag wings, the result may look like this: This is Top/Bottom diagram for

This is Top/Bottom diagram for DJI 1900-2004. The zigzag wing is 2%, and there are 2192 turning points within the analyzed period. The diagram reveals that Libra - Scorpio is the active zone (the turning points happen often here), while Leo is not the active period.

Composite - Introduction

The effect of astronomical cycles on the stock market is the most enigmatic phenomenon that I know. It is enigmatic in many ways. First of all, my 10 years research of financial data definitely shows that the most reliable projection line is provided by astronomical models. And this is the enigma for the scientific community: they cannot accept this and they cannot prove that there is no such influence. This is enigmatic for astrological community as well because very often the statements of classical astrology do not work while being applied to real financial data. So I think that the best way is to study these phenomena without any preliminary assumptions and any prejudice, to study them as they are.

This is what we will do now - study astro cycles. We start this study with the most familiar astro cycle - Annual cycle. The annual cycle is formed by the Sun passing through all signs of Zodiac. This cycle was well known to humans for thousands of years. Actually, we use it to measure the time. Let us look how the annual cycle may be applied to financial data analysis. Download Dow Jones Industrial data from 1885 to the year 2006. To reveal Annual cycle, click "Astronomy" button. You will get this picture:

click "Astronomy" button. You will get this picture: This diagram shows how DJI changes when the

This diagram shows how DJI changes when the Sun goes through different signs of Zodiac. You see here that sometimes the value of DJI is very high, while for some other periods it is very low. This is the solar breath of the stock market, and its rhythm is caused by the movement of the Sun.

This diagram allows to make some conclusion regarding DJI movement in respect to the Sun's position:

regarding DJI movement in respect to the Sun's position: From the end of April to the

From the end of April to the end of June, the price usually goes down. From the end of June to the end of August, we see the up trend followed by short though strong September correction etc.

The picture above is a "planetary portrait" of Dow index, or, more precisely, its solar portrait. However, for practical needs, we are more interested in the information on real price movement in time. You can find it on the Main screen: look at it now to see how this Annual cycle appears in time:

This cycle is just one of many possible cycles. We can create composites for every

This cycle is just one of many possible cycles. We can create composites for every planet and compare these cycles to the actual price movements. Plus we can consider more complicated (and more interesting) cycles, like cycles of the mutual movement for two different planets. For example, one important cycle for DJI is Jupiter - Saturn cycle. Its period is 20 years. Therefore, having 120 years of DJI historical data, we can try to determine the effect of this cycle on DJI behavior. To do that, set these options in "Terms":

behavior. To do that, set these options in "Terms": Here you can see the DJI movement

Here you can see the DJI movement (Y axis) in respect to the angle between Jupiter and Saturn (X axis). This is Jupiter-Saturn portrait of DJI:

You can select four major periods on this diagram. Period #1 - the angle between

You can select four major periods on this diagram.

Period #1 - the angle between Jupiter-Saturn is 50deg-90deg; the market is growing during this period.

Period #2 - the angle reaches 90 degrees (square aspect); the market changes the trend and follows the downtrend tendency. It reaches the bottom on 180 degrees.

Period #3 - the angle is 230-270 degrees providing the DJI more opportunity to grow. The peak is reached at 270 degrees (another square aspect).

Period #4 - 270-310 degrees; a fast downward movement.

This technique gives us a general outlook of this cycle. The most important conclusion here is that this 20 years cycle exists. However, if you truly decide to make a forecast based on astrocycles, you need to consider other cycles as well and then pick up the most important cycles only. This issue will be discussed in the next lesson.

Now, some technical notes regarding Composite diagram:

Analyzing any astro cycle, always keep in mind the period of the analyzed cycle. The program displays this information here:

analyzed cycle. The program displays this information here: You see here the period (19.9 years) of

You see here the period (19.9 years) of the analyzed cycle and a number of cycles considered (in our example, we use 6.11 full Jupiter-Saturn cycles).

Pay attention you can analyze many zodiacs here:

considered (in our example, we use 6.11 full Jupiter-Saturn cycles). Pay attention you can analyze many

If you research the long term cycles (like Jupiter-Saturn 20 years cycle), maybe it makes sense using Heliocentric zodiac. Geocentric zodiac causes many irregularities due to the annual retrograde motion.

Also I highly recommend to apply Phase Zodiac:

motion. Also I highly recommend to apply Phase Zodiac: I have found that practically all financial

I have found that practically all financial instruments are affected at least by one phase cycle. I recommend

using single planets phase cycles, like Moon phases

using single planets phase cycles, like Moon phases , Mercury phases etc. I believe that this

, Mercury phases

planets phase cycles, like Moon phases , Mercury phases etc. I believe that this table of

etc.

I believe that this table of periods for planetary phases is very useful, you may would like to remember it:

Phase Geo Helio Planet period period period 365.3 d 365.3 Sun (i.e. d Earth) Moon
Phase
Geo
Helio
Planet
period
period
period
365.3 d
365.3
Sun
(i.e.
d
Earth)
Moon
29.5 d
27.3 d
365.3
Mercury
116
d
88 d
d
365.3
Venus
584
d
225
d
d
Mars
780
d
687 d
687
d
Jupiter
399
d
11.9
y
11.9
y
Saturn
378
d
29.4
y
29.4
y
Uranus
370
d
84 y
84 y
367.5
Neptune
165
y
165
y
d
366.7
Pluto
245
y
245
y
d

The most used cycles are marked by the red font.

There are a lot of different astro cycles out there. I often been asked how select the best cycles. Let us say that you have decided to analyze some new financial instrument (FTSE100). Start with Spectrum diagram - to get a general outlook on the cycles' structure. As you can see below, there are 2 peaks marked (among the other ones),114 and 767 days cycles:

It is very possible that these cycles are connected to some astronomical cycles (see the

It is very possible that these cycles are connected to some astronomical cycles (see the table, I chose Mercury and Mars phases). This way you can reveal the major players for this market.

However, there is no proven method yet of choosing the appropriate cycle for some financial instrument. It is a brand new field for research on markets and economics (mostly because of the absence of proper tools for the analysis, including a proper software; this situation is changing now, due to the efforts of different researchers and TS users among them). So, now we can only try different planetary combinations, using different types of Zodiac in attempt to find a good correlation to available historical data. It is a very interesting thing to see how the stock market responds to different astro cycles. Very often the "pure" astronomical cycles are much stronger than the well known to economists Annual cycle. If you study the financial data attentively, you will find that very often the strongest cycle is not the Annual cycle, but a cycle that is close to it. As an example, for S&P500 index, one of the strongest cycles is 403-days cycle (it is found by Spectrum analysis). Why is it so, why is it not the Annual cycle? No answer now. We can only assume that the S&P500 index shows a very strong reaction to Jupiter synodic cycle (which is 399-days cycle). So, right now we are in empiric stage of the market cycle research, we simply collect and record the cycles that have some effect on different financial instruments. The more financial instruments and data we analyze, the more we know about the astro cycles affecting them.

Split criteria and Correlation criteria: how to pick up the most important cycles

In the previous lesson we have learned how to create a projection line based on astro cycles. It is our main goal - to be able to create the projection line of the future movements for each and every financial instrument. However, there is a very important question there: why should we trust our forecast? It leads to another question, more relevant to our lesson's theme: how reliable are astro cycles if we use them for trading? There are two sets of criteria in the program that provide the answer to this question.

Split criteria

Let us consider again the most known of astro cycles, the Annual cycle. We have found already that there is some connection between this cycle and DJI (it is what I mean saying that "the Annual cycle affects DJI"). Look one more time at the Sun's composite diagram:

Consider two significant moments here (they are marked by red arrows). We can state that

Consider two significant moments here (they are marked by red arrows). We can state that there are two major seasonal movements: September drop and after Christmas growth. But - remember that this is the average picture only; it is based on 120 years history. During these 120 years, American stock market has come through a lot of changes. So the seasonal cycle in the beginning of 1900 worked differently than in 1950th and totally different than in the beginning of 2000.

More over, if we look at the price chart of DJI for September 2006, we will not see the big drop, it simply does not follow the Annual cycle:

the big drop, it simply does not follow the Annual cycle: Why has it happened? My

Why has it happened? My guess is that the "economical gears" change with the time, so does the stock market as well. Globalization makes the national economy less dependant on a seasonal component than 50 years ago. Timing Solution allows you visually see the evolution of the Annual cycle.

Let us look at the September drop in details. There are 3 colored lines on this diagram: red, green and blue ones. These lines represent the composite diagrams calculated for different independent intervals ("independent" here means that the program takes three different time intervals among the available data, of the same length, and not overlapped). The red line represents the last 40 years of history, i.e., the Annual cycle based on 1966-2006 DJI history. The blue diagram is based on 1925-1966 while the black one is based on 1885-1925 data.

If these three curves would point at the same price movement, we may think about

If these three curves would point at the same price movement, we may think about high probability that this movement will actually take place in the future. In reality we see that the red line based on the latest 40 years history does not show a strong drop, while blue and black curves point on it. It looks like the September pattern is not so strong now as it has been before. However the DJI still "remembers" this pattern, though the new tendency and new factors are coming to the stage (I would say it has started in September 2004, partly in 2005).

Now, let us consider another pattern, after Christmas upward movement. Here you see all three lines pointing at the same direction, and (what is very important) at the same turning point happening on January 5-6, 2007:

at the same turning point happening on January 5-6, 2007: The program is very flexible: you

The program is very flexible: you can analyze any amount of independent intervals among your data (use "Split" option), for different cycles and different Zodiac types. It does not matter how many composite curves you have; the most important thing is to watch the intervals (or zones) where all these curves (or most of them) show the same price pattern.

The zones where all three curves (or any other amount defined by you) point at the same movement are called predictable zones. To identify them easily, these zones are marked by red color stripes at the bottom of Composite diagram:

by red color stripes at the bottom of Composite diagram: When any planet (or the angle

When any planet (or the angle between the planets) reaches this zone, we should pay a special attention to this astro cycle.

Therefore, when you study astro cycles, first of all you must watch how these three curves move together. If they point at the same tendency, we can accept this cycle for further consideration. For example, analyzing Dow Jones Industrial from 1885 year, we have found this Venus synodic cycle (phase zodiac):

year, we have found this Venus synodic cycle (phase zodiac): As you see all three curves

As you see all three curves point at the same tendency. The discrepancy still exists, but the general tendency is visible. By the way, this cycle is not found by Spectrum analysis; very often the Spectrum cannot reveal this kind of cycles.

Vise versa: if we watch Saturn synodic cycle with a period of 378 days, we cannot find any tendency there:

So, we will not consider this cycle further. We call this approach split criteria ,

So, we will not consider this cycle further.

We call this approach split criteria, when split curves show us some tendency, we can accept this cycle as a valid one in the terms of split criteria. You may use this cycle for your forecast.

The split criteria approach is a "qualitative" one. Some of you may find it time consuming. However, I recommend you to play with the astro cycles actually. After some practice you will get a better feeling and understanding of these cycles. Under this approach, you use your own judgment and evaluate a cycle visually. There is another approach, a quantative one - when the computer calculates some parameters and provides you the information for your decision.

Correlation criteria

Before discussing this approach, I would like to make it clear why we use correlation at all. Correlation is not a final answer. Sure the higher correlation the better, However, as for today, there is still no theory or idea that explains market moves in a most realistic way; we do not know the reason. Thus, the regular way of academic science is not applicable here (like gather data, do this, check that, and you will get something). We have to go by phenomenological (pre-scientific) way - gather the data, try one method, compare its results to the reality, store the results, apply another method, etc. The stock market has so many faces/habits, and we can only study these faces/habits. A time for a theory will come

Back to astro cycles. I prefer to use several criteria in determining the influential cycles. The second method is correlation criteria. The idea is pretty simple: we calculate the projection line based on analyzed cycle and watch how this projection line fits to real price (to be precisely, not to price itself, but to its oscillator). The correlation is calculated on the testing interval (red zone), this is important. (It is important because the correlation on a training interval has no sense - it is high by definition.) The higher correlation, the better for forecast - it means that the cycle with a higher correlation has more chances to move the market.

So, researching the Venus cycle, pay attention to a correlation coefficient:

the Venus cycle, pay attention to a correlation coefficient: If this coefficient is positive, we can

If this coefficient is positive, we can accept this cycle as an important one. The correlation 0.03-0.05 is good enough. More detailed explanation regarding the correlation coefficient see in the program's documentation.

Thus I recommend two steps while choosing the cycles for your forecast: checking the split criteria and checking the correlation criteria.

I would like to add only this: do not be discouraged by 3-5% of correlation. It does not mean a forecast's success (it is not about the forecast quality). It means only that your cycle is responsible for 5% of all market moves - among all other reasons that might move your market. Is it big or is it small? I think it is big enough - it is just one cycle among many. By the way, the modern civilization, with all its cars, trains, airplanes, rockets and all appliances that we used to have - has started with a steam engine. Do you know its original efficiency? Find it yourselves, it will be a good surprise.

Composite - playing around

In this article some nuances of Astronomy module usage will be explained.

Working with harmonics

For most financial instruments, we cannot use cycles of the slowest planets, because we have not enough price history data to make a conclusion as to how these cycles work. As an example, consider one of the longest historical data set available: Dow Jones Industrial index from the year 1789 till now. (The data before 1885 have been developed by Foundation of Cycles Research and Bill Meridian.) In total, we have 218 years of historical data to research the American stock market. Unfortunately, we cannot use the Neptune cycle for these data as Neptune's 165-year period is too long compared to the available data. For a proper research on

Neptune's cycle, we need at least 500 years of price history. However, there is a way out. We may apply some kind of analogy: let us assume that the impact of Neptune in Aries is similar to its impact in Cancer, Libra and Capricorn (the signs of Cardinal Cross). The impact of Neptune in Taurus is similar to Leo, Scorpio and Aquarius, etc. In other words, we research the impact of a slow planet going by crosses.

To research this cycle, set 4H harmonics:

going by crosses. To research this cycle, set 4H harmonics: If our goal is a long-term

If our goal is a long-term forecast, it is better to work with Heliocentric Zodiac( to exclude the Annual retrograde motion). This is the composite for Neptune 4H cycle:

motion). This is the composite for Neptune 4H cycle: As you see, there is some consistent

As you see, there is some consistent pattern (split criteria) there, and this cycle provides a good projection line (see correlation criteria).

Do the same thing to other crosses. This diagram shows Neptune's impact according to its position in different crosses (cardinal, fixed, and mutable):

Consider another popular harmonics, 3H. It allows us to estimate the planetary effect according to

Consider another popular harmonics, 3H. It allows us to estimate the planetary effect according to their positions in different elements. For example, analyzing 3H Sun composite for gold prices in 1975 - 2007, we have received this diagram:

gold prices in 1975 - 2007, we have received this diagram: It gives us some hints

It gives us some hints regarding gold prices, like when the Sun is in Fire signs (Aries, Leo and Sagittarius) the gold price goes up first two weeks and then it goes down. So we only need to know when the Sun ingresses the Fire signs (it happens around March 21, July 23, and November 22).

Another possibility is the usage of fractal harmonics. For example, the Moon phase cycle is 29.5 days. Let us assume that the Moon may affect some market with 59-days periodicity. In other words, we assume that the cycle in question lasts two Moon phase cycles. To create such kind of a cycle, set this option:

words, we assume that the cycle in question lasts two Moon phase cycles. To create such

It means that you will see the 720-degrees scale instead of usual 360:

you will see the 720-degrees scale instead of usual 360: The diagram represents how the market

The diagram represents how the market moves while the Moon makes 2 full cycles (i.e. 720 degrees).

You can work with cycles of single planets and/or you can research cycles that are based on the angle between two planets. Just a note: for gold prices, the angle between Venus and Mars is important:

gold prices, the angle between Venus and Mars is important: Active Zones The Active Zones feature

Active Zones

The Active Zones feature allows you to get the answers to questions like this one: "Has the angle between Mercury and the Earth heliocentric any effect on DJI turning points?".

Let me show how it works for DJI data from the year 1885 till now. Download the data and set these options:

year 1885 till now. Download the data and set these options: Click on "Zigzag" button to

Click on "Zigzag" button to set the minimum swing for zigzag (that is used to calculate turning points). Let it be 15%.

Now you can see an additional panel with red and blue stripes on the composite diagram:

These stripes correspond to the top (red) and bottom (blue) turning points in respect to

These stripes correspond to the top (red) and bottom (blue) turning points in respect to the angle between Mercury and the Earth helio (in heliocentric system, we use the Sun sign to designate the Earth).

As you see, there is a cluster of red stripes around Mercury-Earth opposition:

is a cluster of red stripes around Mercury-Earth opposition: It means that this aspect may cause

It means that this aspect may cause top turning points.

But you should be very cautious while working with this feature, as planetary motions are irregular. For example, if you would research Mars-Sun geo cycle, these stripes are distributed like this:

There are practically no points around the opposition, but this effect means nothing as it

There are practically no points around the opposition, but this effect means nothing as it is caused by irregularity of Mars's motion.

Another application of active zones module gives the answers to the questions like this one: "When within a year DJI may make a big move?". It is easy to answer this question, simply set these options in "Active Zones" tab:

simply set these options in "Active Zones" tab: You will get this diagram for the Sun

You will get this diagram for the Sun composite:

tab: You will get this diagram for the Sun composite: The red/blue stripes correspond to big

The red/blue stripes correspond to big up/down points in respect to the Sun position. This diagram definitely shows that the big movements are more probable in the second part of the fall:

All these features allow you to obtain the full astro portrait for any financial instrument.

All these features allow you to obtain the full astro portrait for any financial instrument. Next lessons will be devoted to calculation of the projection line based on these cycles.

Target - what forecast

"By default" the program uses Relative Price Oscillator to calculate the projection line. This is obvious - to reveal cycles we need to eliminate trend component from financial data. Another important question is: "what period of oscillator we should use".

Let's create Annual cycle, the program shows the period of oscillator here:

cycle, the program shows the period of oscillator here: In other words, to calculate the 365

In other words, to calculate the 365 days cycle the program uses the oscillator with period 73 bars.

If you analyze Moon phases cycle (period is 29 days) the program will use shorter oscillator with period 5 days only:

program will use shorter oscillator with period 5 days only: So the program uses long term

So the program uses long term oscillator to to reveal long term cycles and short term oscillators to reveal short term cycles.

As an example at the picture below you can see two oscillators, red - oscillator that has been used to calculate Sun cycle and blue - to calculate Moon phases cycle:

If you would like to smooth the projection line we recommend to set ON this

If you would like to smooth the projection line we recommend to set ON this option in "Target Function" tab:

to set ON this option in "Target Function" tab: You see the red and blue lines

You see the red and blue lines became smoother now.

If you plan make projection line for non trend indicators, say MACD, RSI, ADX, Volatility etc. you need to click this button and set the indicator you want to research:

More information about this issue you can find here: http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Mini/8/index.htm One more parameter

More information about this issue you can find here: http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Mini/8/index.htm

One more parameter is "Alpha"

One more parameter is "Alpha" This is simply coefficient between target oscillator period

This is simply coefficient between target oscillator period and astro cycle period. Like for Sun 365 days cycle program uses oscillator with period

365 x 0.2 = 75 dyas.

Composite Module - preliminary description

This is the most impressive technology in Timing Solution. The composite module allows you to construct the projection line based on several astrocycles. So, you can consider this article as an express class that shows you the fast way to create the projection line based on astrocycles. Let us create the forecast for some data. Let it be the latest data I have worked with: currency USD/CHF (1973-2006). This is the chart:

the forecast for some data. Let it be the latest data I have worked with: currency
Click the "Astronomy" button: "Astrology" taking into the consideration the chronic fear of the last

Click the "Astronomy" button:

"Astrology" taking into the consideration the chronic fear of the last word from the scientific community. Ok, we can play with the toys they like.)

(By the way, I keep the name "Astronomy" instead of

You immediately will get the Annual cycle diagram:

of You immediately will get the Annual cycle diagram: How to read this diagram? The colored

How to read this diagram? The colored diagram shows the price movement in respect to the Sun's position. To calculate this diagram, all price history before LBC (learning border cursor) is used.

Can we be sure that this Annual cycle reflects the true price movement? Can we trust this cycle?

Common sense says that we can use as hints several independent witnesses and see whether they confirm this Annual cycle. Where can we find these witnesses? We have them already: we can divide our almost 30 years of price history on 3 independent interval, each one being about 10 years long (do not be scared, the program does this work automatically). Here they are:

the program does this work automatically). Here they are: You see there now three additional diagrams

You see there now three additional diagrams (red, blue and black curves). These diagrams represent the same Annual cycles from the point of view of these three witnesses. Witness #1 watches the price history within the

time frame 1991-2001 years, it works with the latest available price history data. Witness #2 works with the data of 1982-1991, while Witness #3 observes 1972-1982. What do they say to us?

The common sense tells us that we need to consider those Zodiac zones where all three witnesses point at the same tendency in price movement. These zones are marked by red stripes in the bottom of the diagram. Here they are:

by red stripes in the bottom of the diagram. Here they are: The red and blue

The red and blue arrows show the major trend directions in respect to the Sun's position. You can see that the Sun is responsible for the major drives approximately 4 months a year (only!). Any other time we have got mixed signals.

One additional fact that increases our confidentiality regarding Annual cycle is shown on the screen as well. Look at this label: Correlation=0.1511

the screen as well. Look at this label: Correlation=0.1511 We did not use last 5 years

We did not use last 5 years of price history for the calculation of this cycle. This is Testing Interval (2001- 2006) - shown as pink region on the chart. This label says that the projection line based on Annual cycle provides the correlation of 15% (actually, the program calculates the correlation between the projection line and the relative price oscillator with period = 71 days, to eliminate the trend component).

We can look at our Annual projection line in the Main window:

In Composite window we can set the color of our projection line or to hide

In Composite window we can set the color of our projection line or to hide it:

we can set the color of our projection line or to hide it: Ok, we may

Ok, we may assume that this cycle is good enough and we decide to use it for our projection line. Click here:

and we decide to use it for our projection line. Click here: The program will immediately

The program will immediately display one more window Composite Box. Here it is:

The Composite Box allows us to collect as many astrocycles as we like and calculate

The Composite Box allows us to collect as many astrocycles as we like and calculate the summary projection line based on these cycles.

Now it is a time to play with other astrocycles. I've found that Venus cycle works for these data (though it is related to the annual, i.e., Sun cycle, it is still a different cycle). Set these parameters:

to the annual, i.e., Sun cycle, it is still a different cycle). Set these parameters: I

I got this Composite diagram:

to the annual, i.e., Sun cycle, it is still a different cycle). Set these parameters: I

Venus forecasts the price better when it is in the first half of Zodiac. I have added this cycle to the Composite Box as well.

Look at the Main window. You can see here the thin blue line that represents the sum of Sun and Venus astro cycles:

line that represents the sum of Sun and Venus astro cycles: The next cycle that might

The next cycle that might work for these data is the cycle of the angle between the Moon and Venus:

data is the cycle of the angle between the Moon and Venus: This cycle is added

This cycle is added to the Composite, as well as the Sun - Neptune cycle.

Also, I would recommend to use the phase Zodiac. For example, see this Composite for Uranus phase cycle:

For example, see this Composite for Uranus phase cycle: This is the cycle that is close

This is the cycle that is close to the Annual cycle (period=370 days).

Look at the Composite Box now. We have selected 5 different astrocycles:

Composite Box now. We have selected 5 different astrocycles: The program performs the huge work of

The program performs the huge work of revealing these cycles very quickly (I have spent more time describing this than actually doing this). Mark them all. The program will optimize these cycles and produce the resulting projection line. You can see it in the Main screen now:

projection line. You can see it in the Main screen now: Because this model is based

Because this model is based on astrocycles, we can prolong it into the future as far as we like. If, for some reason, we do not like the resulting projection line, we can go back to the Composite Box and disable one or several cycles there. The program will do the recalculation and re-optimization and will give a new projection line.

Sure we can manipulate with the screen image (magnify a part of the chart, shift it, etc.).

As I have said already, the program does this huge amount of calculation very quickly. My purpose was to find the appropriate math methods to make this easier for you.

When you click "+" button, the program calculates the astrocycle and optimizes the content of the Composite Box, trying to find the best input for each astrocycle. The information regarding the weight of each cycle is shown on the screen (like Sun W 0.03465):

of each cycle is shown on the screen (like Sun W 0.03465): If you do not

If you do not need this optimization, just disable "Auto Optimization" option in Composite window:

"Auto Optimization" option in Composite window: The program allows you to perform several scenarios of

The program allows you to perform several scenarios of optimization (different optimizing intervals and different algorithms). You can set these options yourself in the Composite Box window:

can set these options yourself in the Composite Box window: Here are these options: MY FRIENDS,

Here are these options:

in the Composite Box window: Here are these options: MY FRIENDS, I NEED YOU ASSISTANCE. PLEASE

MY FRIENDS, I NEED YOU ASSISTANCE. PLEASE TRY TO PLAY WITH DIFFERENT VARIANTS. I STILL AM NOT SURE WHAT OPTIONS ARE MORE SUITABLE AS "DEFAULT".

ALSO I NEED TO KNOW IS IT GOOD TO SET "AUTO OPTIMIZATION" AS THE DEFAULT OPTION. AS ALTERNATIVE, YOU CAN COLLECT ASTRO CYCLES WITHOUT OPTIMIZATION AND PERFORM THE OPTIMIZATION ON THE FINAL STEP CLICKING "OPTIMIZE" BUTTON IN THE COMPOSITE BOX.

One more very important issue is Target. It is what we would like to forecast and what is used in the optimization process. Set the Target here (in Composite Box):

process. Set the Target here (in Composite Box): As an example, we can make a forecast

As an example, we can make a forecast for Relative Price Oscillator for (H+L+C)/3 with smoothing window=50 bars:

Oscillator for (H+L+C)/3 with smoothing window=50 bars: or we can try to forecast ADX (analyzing the

or we can try to forecast ADX (analyzing the trend's strength):

try to forecast ADX (analyzing the trend's strength): In the end, I would like to make

In the end, I would like to make some general notes regarding the interface.

These options allow you to adjust the view of the Main window:

Also sliding this scroll bar:

regarding the interface. These options allow you to adjust the view of the Main window: Also
you can make Composite window partially transparent. Thus you will be able to see the

you can make Composite window partially transparent. Thus you will be able to see the content of the Main window through the Composite:

to see the content of the Main window through the Composite: Composite Box - Projection line

Composite Box - Projection line

Fast introduction

This is one of the most impressive technologies in Timing Solution. The composite module allows you to construct the projection line based on several astrocycles.

As an example let's create together the projection line based on three astro cycles: the Sun cycle (its other name is Annul Cycle), the Moon Phases cycle and the cycle of Mars phases.

We do it for Dow Jones Industrial from 1885 till April 2009 year.

After downloading the data, click "Astronomy" button:

.
.

Immediately we get the Annual cycle (Sun-Sun geo), it is shown on the Main screen:

Now, put this cycle into the "Composite Box" clicking this button: It is there, and

Now, put this cycle into the "Composite Box" clicking this button:

cycle into the "Composite Box" clicking this button: It is there, and we can repeat the

It is there, and we can repeat the procedure for other two cycles. First calculate the Moon's phases cycle (the Moon - the Sun in Geo) and send it into "Composite Box":

- the Sun in Geo) and send it into "Composite Box": Finally calculate the Mars phases

Finally calculate the Mars phases cycle (Mars-Mars phase) and send it into "Composite Box" as well:

Look at the Main screen now. You can see two projection lines there: One of

Look at the Main screen now. You can see two projection lines there:

the Main screen now. You can see two projection lines there: One of them, the blue

One of them, the blue line, corresponds to the "Composite Box" projection line, i.e. this is a superposition of three astro cycles (that we have created a minute ago). The other (the green line) is a projection line for a single cycle. It is called "Current Composite", and it is the last cycle added to the Composite Box. For our particular example, the "Current Composite" corresponds to Mars phases cycle.

We can hide "Current Composite" and display only Composite Box's projection line. Do it this way:

Now look at "Composite Box" window (the program displays it automatically when you click "+"

Now look at "Composite Box" window (the program displays it automatically when you click "+" button):

it automatically when you click "+" button): You can disable/enable any cycle there, save your work

You can disable/enable any cycle there, save your work into some file or open a previously created and saved variant.

If "Composite Box" window is closed, you can open it any time clicking this button:

created and saved variant. If "Composite Box" window is closed, you can open it any time

Simple backtesting

The most interesting question is how this combination of cycles really works in the future. Remember that we always can obtain a good projection line that perfectly fits to price movements IN THE PAST (it is just a test for your tools).

Timing Solution provides you "no future leaks" technology that allows to get the answer to the question above. Let's do it together:

1) Set Learning Border Cursor (LBC) on some date in past, Let it be the beginning of February 2004:

some date in past, Let it be the beginning of February 2004: 2) In a moment

2) In a moment the program recalculates the projection line.

3) The data beyond LBC (February 2004) represent the REAL FORECAST. "Real" means that the program "does not know" the price history beyond LBC (though you can see it on the screen). It does not use the price history after LBC. The program is "blind" in respect to the future. (If you choose some other position for LBC, you start a new case, and now the program uses the data before LBC to generate a projection line AFTER (BEYOND) LBC.)

4) We recommend to vary LBC position several times to figure out how the projection line works after LBC. Look at the "Composite Box" module, it shows how the Composite Box projection line fits the price. The correlation coefficient tells you that; "by default" it is calculated using the price history after LBC:

5) Remember that you can set LBC at any place clicking RIGHT mouse button and

5) Remember that you can set LBC at any place clicking RIGHT mouse button and choosing "Set LBC at item:

RIGHT mouse button and choosing "Set LBC at item: Also in Options->View, set this option ON:

Also in Options->View, set this option ON:

"

item: Also in Options->View, set this option ON: " The most important cycles This is a

The most important cycles

This is a very important and the most difficult question - what cycles are more meaning than others.

I always start with the Annual cycle:

.
.

Then I check the phases of inner planets (Mercury and Venus):

.
.

After that I check phases of Mars, Jupiter, and sometimes of Saturn. The phases of slow planets Uranus, Neptune and Pluto are very close to the Annual cycle, so I do not use them. If you have 30-40 years of price history, I recommend to check Jupiter cycle, it is close to a well-known Juglar cycle.

What cycles are better to use? There is no simple answer. I recommend to look through Lesson 7, you can find there some useful information.

Let me show one example. The downloaded price history is Dow from 1885 year, and LBC is set at the beginning of the year 2008. It seems to me that for the whole year 2008 Mars heliocentric cycle has worked very well. See yourselves (a red curve):

cycle has worked very well. See yourselves (a red curve): During 2008 and in the beginning

During 2008 and in the beginning of 2009, the correlation between this projection line and DJI is 0.7099 - this is a very high correlation. The analyzed interval (2008 - the beginning of 2009) covers a bit more than the half of Mars Helio cycle's period.

Does it mean that Mars Helio cycle always works for Dow?. The answer is NO! The time interval 2008 - the beginning of 2009 - is too small to make this conclusion. The random mistake is too high here.

To demonstrate this to you, let us set the LBC in the beginning of the 1999. The program uses now 10 years of price history to calculate the correlation between DJI and our projection line; it is more than 5 Mars Helio cycles:

our projection line; it is more than 5 Mars Helio cycles: You see that the correlation

You see that the correlation for Mars Helio cycle is negative now. In other words, for the last year Mars cycle works very well, though it did not work well for 10 last years.

Does it mean that this cycle is no use? Not either. May be this cycle has started to be involved in the last year, and before that it has been inactive. In other words, this (and many other) cycle is not providing the same results always, it really works from time to time. There are more persistent cycles, they just work most of the time. So I recommend to start with the persistent cycles.

This is one working example. Let's consider Mars phase cycle:

LBC is set at the beginning of 2008

Looks like this cycle works in 2008 year. Can we get more confirmation regarding the

Looks like this cycle works in 2008 year. Can we get more confirmation regarding the workability of this cycle?

Yes, we can. Set LBC on the beginning of 1999. You get this:

The projection line is still working, correlation 0.2 is good. 10 years cover about 5

The projection line is still working, correlation 0.2 is good. 10 years cover about 5 full Mars phase cycles, it is enough to evaluate the cycle's importance.

In other words you vary the LBC and watch how this cycle correlates to the price chart. The whole procedure looks like this: you click the right mouse button on different places of the price chart and watch how the correlation coefficient changes:

If this cycle "passes" this examination, consider it as a working cycle and put it

If this cycle "passes" this examination, consider it as a working cycle and put it into your "Composite Box"

"Garbage in - garbage out"

Be very picky while choosing the cycles. Do not use too many cycles in your Composite Box, use only several the most important ones. Adding more cycles that are non working, we add more Chaos to your model. In this case, you should not be suprized getting nothing in the end.

I also do not recommend to use "Auto selection" button:

do not recommend to use "Auto selection" button: It picks up dozens of astro cycles. Usually

It picks up dozens of astro cycles. Usually the projection line based on these cycles works good in the past and does not work in the future. This button appeared in one of the previous versions of the software; at that time I thought it might be useful. Then practice and research showed its useless, I even deleted it once, but still some users wanted to see it. So, it is in the program, though I do not recommend using it.

Optimization

There is the additional feature "Optimization" in the "Composite Box":

"Optimization" in the "Composite Box": There are four possible optimization algorithms in the

There are four possible optimization algorithms in the program:

are four possible optimization algorithms in the program: Weights optimization finds the best weights for all

Weights optimization finds the best weights for all cycles that are present in the Composite Box. Genetic optimization finds the best combination of these cycles, it disables cycles that do not improve the projection line (in other words, the projection line is not changing with or without those cycles).

If you conduct the final projection line, i.e. the projection line that is based on ALL available price history, click this button:

is based on ALL available price history, click this button: The program will set LBC on

The program will set LBC on the last available price bar.

Turbo Astro module

Turbo Astro module is a very simple module that allows calculating quickly the projection line based on astronomical cycles. You can also calculate the projection line based on astronomical cycles through "Astronomy" module. However this new module allows to perform this task very quickly similar to Turbo Cycles http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Study/Turbo_Cycles/ module tat allows very fast calculation of the projection line based on dominant cycles. All "Turbo" modules in Timing Solution mean fast and easy version

of possibilities presented in other modules of the software.Let's start. Download some price history. As an example, I chose S&P500. Then click "Advanced"->"Turbo Astro". In an instant, you will get Annual cycle (the Sun cycle) for S&P index:

you will get Annual cycle (the Sun cycle) for S&P index: Now calculate another astro cycle

Now calculate another astro cycle that may affect S&P. Let it be Mars synodic cycle (the period of this cycle is a bit more than 2 years).

Uncheck Seasonal Cycle and set ON for Mars Synodic item. You immediately get the projection line based on Mars synodic cycle:

get the projection line based on Mars synodic cycle: Set ON for Seasonal Cycle and Mars

Set ON for Seasonal Cycle and Mars Synodic to receive the projection line based on these two cycles:

Include Mercury synodic cycle in the same manner. The projection line becomes more detailed: Going

Include Mercury synodic cycle in the same manner. The projection line becomes more detailed:

the same manner. The projection line becomes more detailed: Going further, try to calculate the committee

Going further, try to calculate the committee for this projection line. The committee allows to see several variants of the same projection lines. (More about committee technique is here:

To calculate committee you need to do just two mouse clicks:

Easy and effective! Isn't it? Now the main question: how to pick up astro cycles?

Easy and effective! Isn't it?

Now the main question: how to pick up astro cycles? What cycles are important and what cycles are not important?

I recommend to run Spectrum module, the peaks on spectrogram correspond to the strongest cycles presented in S&P500 price history.

Just watch the period of astro cycles and choose only those that have peaks APPROXIMATELY on the same period:

Like here the spectrogram shows the peak on 752 days cycle, while we have Mars

Like here the spectrogram shows the peak on 752 days cycle, while we have Mars synodic cycle with period 780 days. The astronomical cycles are irregular, so the small discrepancy between periods revealed by the spectrogram and actual astronomical periods is quite possible.

BTW I forgot to include 584 days Venus synodic cycle; try to do it yourself. This cycle works very often for different financial instruments.

Finally go to Options:

for different financial instruments. Finally go to Options: and play with these parameters: - color legend

and play with these parameters:

Finally go to Options: and play with these parameters: - color legend for committee; enable/disable projection

- color legend for committee;

play with these parameters: - color legend for committee; enable/disable projection lines in committee (SM means

enable/disable projection lines in committee (SM means "stock memory"; see here:

amount of overtones and minimal period for the overtone. More overtones means the more detailed

amount of overtones and minimal period for the overtone. More overtones means the more detailed projection line, and more noise as well.

That's it!

Dominant Astro Cycles module

This module in Timing Solution allows to consider astronomical cycles from a totally different point of view. In all modules discussed previously we have considered the astro based cycles as some constant entity. In other words, when speaking about the Annual cycle (which is the Sun astro cycle) we discussed either the typical September drop or Christmas rally. We assumed that the astro cycles always work the same way.Dominant Astro Cycles module does not assume some constant pattern for any astro cycle. This module simply looks for the period of time when this cycle has some impact on stock market behavior. The behavior pattern of astro cycles may be totally different now; as an example the Annual cycle now may work totally different than ten years ago. In general, both modules start with the definition of the cycle to be considered. Then, usually the program looks for the pattern for that cycle and creates models based on these patterns. While in the Dominant Astro Cycles module, there is no need to look for these patterns; the program simply looks for the time when some particular cycle was active in regards to the stock market activity. Let's start to work with this new module. After downloading price history (better daily data) run "Advanced"->"Dominant Astro Cycles" module and click "Calculate" button there:

Astro Cycles" module and click "Calculate" button there: In a moment you will get this diagram:

In a moment you will get this diagram:

You see the bunch of stripes there, each planet has its own horizontal colored stripe.

You see the bunch of stripes there, each planet has its own horizontal colored stripe. The meaning of the colors is this: the blue color means that this cycle has no impact on the stock market behavior, while the bright red regions represent the time periods when this cycle correlates highly to the price movement.

Thus for the Sun (=Annual) we have these periods when this cycle has been especially strong:

Be advised that behavior patterns of these cycles are different at different time spans. and

Be advised that behavior patterns of these cycles are different at different time spans. and the red stripes simply represent the moments when the market behavior is described very well by the planetary cycle.

How to use this information?

First of all pay attention to the most resent strong astro cycle (i.e. watch red stripes). For example now Mars cycle becomes being very strong, while during the Great Financial Crisis the cycles of inner planets (Sun, Mercury, Venus) have played the main roles on the stock market field (from the end of 2007 to the end of the year 2010, though now (July 2010) Mars cycle is strong) :

Second, try to find some historical analogy, for example upcoming Mars cycle sends us to

Second, try to find some historical analogy, for example upcoming Mars cycle sends us to the years 1998, 2002 and 2004; check what was happening to the stock market at these years:

Third, you can calculate the projection line based on the most resent dominant cycles. Simply

Third, you can calculate the projection line based on the most resent dominant cycles. Simply define here the cycles you want to take into account (Mars in our example) and click this button:

into account (Mars in our example) and click this button: In a moment you will get

In a moment you will get this projection line based on Mars dominant cycle:

Try to include the Sun cycle (which always strong practically for all markets), and you

Try to include the Sun cycle (which always strong practically for all markets), and you will get this projection line based on two dominant astro cycles, the Sun and Mars:

I recommend to vary these two parameters, Stock Market Memory (SM) and the amount of

I recommend to vary these two parameters, Stock Market Memory (SM) and the amount of overtones:

Stock Market Memory (SM) and the amount of overtones: The first parameter (SM) indicates how long

The first parameter (SM) indicates how long cycles live; you can find more about stock market memory here:

http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Mini/47/index.htm The more overtones you use the more detailed projection line you get.Also try to play with different Zodiacs: geocentric, heliocentric and planetary phases.

Planetary Time Metrics - introduction to the theme

In this small article, I would like to introduce an absolutely new technology that allows to improve the forecasting abilities of our models significantly. We (my friends and I) have begun our first numerical experiments with this technique almost two years ago. At that time we considered this technique as a totally experimental one. During the following years, we continued experiments and created a software that can deal with it. Now we are ready to demonstrate this approach to the public. For me personally, the most exciting fact

is that this approach opens our eyes to a new kind of phenomena: it looks like the stock market follows not the ordinary time that we all used to deal with and can measure by different kinds of clocks, but rather with the special kind of time; this kind of time is very related to the planetary movements around the Sun (at least, the Earth movement). This is a statistically approved fact (see the table of results below). I would like to say that the moving planets generate a kind of their own time flows, and we can think of that time and apply it using standard technique procedures, i.e. we can calculate the Spectrum in our usual way to reveal cyclic phenomena persisting in that particular time, and then create the forecast model based on that time. Also, there are already some physical experiments that provide a legitimate base for this approach (I will write more about these scientific experiments in another article). This technology presents in Timing Solution software only, and all rights regarding this approach belong to Sergey Tarassov.

Why Planetary Time?

To be brief, this technology deals with another kind of Time. Time is one of the most fundamental characteristics of our World. Usually, describing any process, we assume that this process has some longevity in time. We can measure the time - using atomic clocks (as we do now) or the Earth's rotation (as we did 100 years ago) or observing astronomical phenomena (as our predecessors did many years ago). In any case, measuring the time, we link it to some physical process that looks constant and even. Then we divide it onto smaller parts (years, hours, minutes and seconds, etc.) - to be able to apply these parts to other processes, to measure them and get a kind of a control over our world. Thus, for our Universe, we use our Universal time. And this universal time (as we know it) is based on the rotation of the Earth (what else could you expect from the earthlings?). Skipping all intermediate thoughts (that is the issue of the next article), we have found that the usage of a special kind of time measure (based on other planets positions) provides the better projection line than the projection line obtained using the Universal time. This fact is statistically verified, see details below.Technically, it means that we are considering the phenomena not in Universal time, but in Planetary Time. (By the way, the Planetary Time differs from local time for different planets, it is a totally different thing). In other words, the hands of the clocks designed for the Planetary Time are moving in respect to the planetary position. The most appealing feature of Planetary Time is that it is not even in respect to the Universal Time. As an example, consider the Mercury Time; it looks like this:

an example, consider the Mercury Time; it looks like this: Sometimes this time is flowing in

Sometimes this time is flowing in opposite direction. In other words, sometimes, for one point of planetary time, we have several corresponding points of universal time. There is nothing unusual in it, we simply need to change the way how we used to look at Time. It is like watching the football game and using different clocks - yours, your friend's, the watches of the gentleman in the first row, etc. How do we know which one says the "right" time? Because the "right" one is exactly like on that big clock on the wall? Or because you like your watches more? We used to live in the Universal Time, but it is just a matter of opinion. Try to consider this Planetary Time as a true time for some specific process. Then you can calculate the spectrum diagram based on this time and reveal cyclic phenomena happening in that time.The first time when I calculated the spectrum diagram based on Planetary Time the first impression was that: this spectrum looks better. The peaks corresponding to different cyclic processes in Planetary Time look better in comparison to the same spectrum diagram in Universal time. You can trust me with this: I look at these spectrum diagrams hundreds times a day, and my eye is trained to see such a difference immediately. But to be sure that this is not an artifact/dream/fantasy, I had to conduct the statistical research. It took me one year to find appropriate math/software decisions to verify this fact.In other words, the planets define their own kind of Time. We did not use it before - only because for all our earthly things the Universal Time was enough. But, at least, the

Planetary Time is very suitable for making forecasts, and some cyclic process may be considered in this Time. This is the reason why these cycles might look irregular in the Universal time though they are regular in Planetary Time. In other words, speaking poetically, the Planetary Time is habitable, at least some regular cycles live there and we can use it for creating a projection line.

Timing Solution software provides a possibility to calculate the spectrum diagram using different time-kind metrics. You can describe your process using different time parameters:

Universal time,

the price bars or trading days;

Planetary Time (planets positions or angle between planets).

In other words, if we do believe that price changes for some security have a cyclic nature, we can reveal different cycles for the same set of data using different time coordinates. And we can get a better projection line.In the table below you will see the results of some experiments. You can do it yourself following these steps:1) Download the price data for different financial instruments;2) Divide this price history on two independent intervals - the training interval and the testing interval;3) Calculate the spectrum for different metrics using price points from the training interval;4) Extract the most significant regular cycles (in different time metrics) from the spectrum diagram;5) Train Neural Network on the training interval. As inputs, use the regular cycles (in different time metrics); as the output, use the detrended price oscillator with the period of 25 price bars;6) Calculate the Neural Network projection line and calculate the correlation between the projected line and the oscillator on the testing interval. The "future leaks" are excluded here because we keep the training and testing intervals independent.This is the table of results; it shows the correlation between the price and the projection line based on different time models (cycles extracted from Spectrum based on Universal Time and Planetary Times):

 

Regular Time Metrics

Irregular Time Metrics

 
 

model based

     

model

on cycles

model based

model based on cycles calculated for Mercury Time

model based on cycles calculated for Venus Time

based on

Instrument

calculated

on cycles

cycles

for

calculated for

calculated

Universal

Sun Time

for

Time

   

Mars Time

Dow Jones from

         

1950

to Sep.

2005.

r= 0.088

r= 0.233 !

r= 0.097

r= 0.064

r= -0.072

2109

test price

bars

S&P 500 from

         

1955

to Sep.

2005

r= -0.042

r= 0.169 !

r= 0.068

r= 0.033

r= 0.002

2084

test price

bars

NASDAQ from

         

1985

to Sep.

2005

r= 0.095!

r= 0.094!

r= 0.035

r= 0.010

***

792

test price

bars

EURO/USD index from 1991 to Sep. 2005 * 776 test price bars

r= -0.155

r= 0.108

r= 0.226 !

r= -0.154

***

* Before 1998, EURO/USD was interpolated as Dollar index.

The table definitely shows that the models based on Planetary Time provide better results than the usual models based on cycles in Universal Time. In any 3 of 4 cases, the model based on Planetary Time provides better results than the model based on Universal Time.But the most reliable statistical approve for the usage of the Planetary Time was received when I did the analysis of Sun spot activity (Wolf index). I used the data from 1848 year to 2003 year (here is the source: http://sidc.oma.be/html/sunspot.htm); in total, it gives 60,000 points!!! Using the data from 1848 to 1979 (my training interval), I have created a forecast model. The other part of data, from 1979 to 2003, served as the testing interval, with 7,600 points; I used it to verify the projection line, i.e. to calculate the correlation between the projected and normalized Wolf index. Then I extracted the most significant cycles using different Times: Universal Time and Jupiter heliocentric Planetary Time. The difference between these two time metrics is caused by the ellipticity of Jupiter's trajectory.The model based on Universal Time provides the projection line that correlates with the index 0%±1%, while the projection line based on Jupiter Time provides the correlation of 5%±2%. The big amount of testing points (7,600) confirms the statistical approval of this approach with a very high probability.

PS. Timing Solution users can see the technical details here:

http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Study/Spectrum/index.htm#A8 Astro based charting tools These charting tools are based on

Astro based charting tools

These charting tools are based on different principles than standard math applications; they use astronomy's rules. Some of them are just the continuation of ideas developed for previously discussed charting tools. The difference comes mostly from a special way of dealing with the Time.

comes mostly from a special way of dealing with the Time. Equidistant lines Let us start

Equidistant lines

Let us start with non astronomical charting tool - "Equidistant lines". This way you will easily understand how all astronomy based charting tools are organized. Dragging the mouse cursor from point A to point B (while "Equidistant lines" tool is activated), you simply display a bunch of vertical lines equidistant one to another (59.4 calendar days step is used in this example):

another (59.4 calendar days step is used in this example): In other words, these lines are

In other words, these lines are based on equal steps on the time scale. If you use BAR scale, the distance is calculated in bars (or in trade days for daily data):

For your convenience, you can set in parameters the color and thickness of these lines

For your convenience, you can set in parameters the color and thickness of these lines as you like; also you can order displaying additional lines (overtones):

also you can order displaying additional lines (overtones): Planetary equidistant lines Technically this charting tool
also you can order displaying additional lines (overtones): Planetary equidistant lines Technically this charting tool

Planetary equidistant lines

Technically this charting tool is pretty close to "Equidistant lines" charting tool. The very important difference is that the TIME is measured here in degrees of the angle separation between two planets or in degrees of the planetary position of any single planet. (We can measure the time using the atomic clocks, or using the Moon phases, or Venus phases. What time measurement is more appropriate? It depends on the task we deal with. If we analyze some physical, chemical, or other process - no doubt, the time measured by the ceasium-133 atoms oscillations is more suitable. However, for the processes where human activity is involved - like the stock market - I do not know how appropriate atomic clocks are.) Thus, while with "Equidistant lines" charting tool we measure time in DAYS (calendar or trade days), with "Planetary equidistant lines" we measure time in planetary angles. Planetary angles play a role of TIME in this charting tool; see more about it here http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Articles/PT/index.htmThe example below shows "Planetary equidistant lines" for Jupiter-Uranus heliocentric angle. Here the increment for the angle between these two planets (Jupiter and Uranus) in the chosen system of coordinates (heliocentric) is 4 degrees 30 minutes of arc:

The other name for this procedure is "stepping".Technically it works this way. Clicking on "Planetary

The other name for this procedure is "stepping".Technically it works this way. Clicking on "Planetary equidistant lines", you get this dialog box; set there the planetary combination (in our example, this is Jupiter- Uranus heliocentric angle separation):

this is Jupiter- Uranus heliocentric angle separation): If you prefer to display the charting tool for

If you prefer to display the charting tool for the Sun position (or any single planet), change this setting to Sun- Sun (or some planet to the same planet).

Now drag the mouse cursor connecting two turning points:

Now drag the mouse cursor connecting two turning points: Why this charting tool is so important?

Why this charting tool is so important? The answer is in non even planetary movements. This fact makes the astro based charting tools irregular, and this is very typical for the stock market behavior.Here you can see regular equidistant lines (blue) together with Jupiter-Uranus helio equidistant lines (red):

The difference between red and blue lines reaches two weeks within one year. In Options

The difference between red and blue lines reaches two weeks within one year. In Options window you can define the planetary combination, Zodiac, lines appearance - color and thickness.

combination, Zodiac, lines appearance - color and thickness. In the example above, we chose only the

In the example above, we chose only the planets and Zodiac. The step (degrees of the angle separation) was defined by the change of that angle between the two turning points. And then we have applied that step (found by the program) to create the charting tool. You can set the degree of angle separation manually as well. Suppose that you set the step of angle separation as 17 degrees:

that you set the step of angle separation as 17 degrees: The program moves the second

The program moves the second anchor to the new position that corresponds to the change of 17 degrees in angle separation between Jupiter and Uranus, heliocentric, starting from the value of this angle in the first turning point :

separation between Jupiter and Uranus, heliocentric, starting from the value of this angle in the first

In other words, when you set the step manually, you actually define the planets and Zodiac (or the system of coordinates) and the step and choose some starting point. The program uses the value of the angle separation

between your planets (initial angle) and shows the lines that correspond to the angles: (initial + 17 degrees),

, Try to draw "Planetary equidistant lines" connecting any two important turning points, then vary planetary combinations and Zodiac types in the Options:

(initial + 2*17),

(initial - 17 degrees), (initial - 2*17), etc. Here is one recommendation while using this tool.

etc. Here is one recommendation while using this tool. While doing that, watch how other lines

While doing that, watch how other lines hit other turning points. This is the way to look for the most informative planetary combination for your stock market.

informative planetary combination for your stock market. Planetary returns (same cycle) This charting tool is based

Planetary returns (same cycle)

This charting tool is based on the idea of returns - the moments when some planet comes again to some position or when two planets make again the same angle between themselves. The actual job of calculation and comparison is done by the program, your actions are just to define your intentions and operate the mouse. While you drag the mouse cursor, the program calculates the Zodiacal position of the chosen planet or the angle between two planets and displays a bunch of vertical stripes that correspond to the moments when this planet reaches the same Zodiacal position (or when there is the same angle between two planets). Look at the example below. Here the mouse cursor is located in the middle of February, 2009. The Mercury position was 3 degrees 17 minutes. Two additional vertical lines indicate the moments when Mercury has passed the same Zodiacal position:

degrees 17 minutes. Two additional vertical lines indicate the moments when Mercury has passed the same
Planetary returns This charting tool is very similar to the previous charting tool. The only

Planetary returns

This charting tool is very similar to the previous charting tool. The only difference is that this charting tool covers all synodic cycles, and therefore more vertical lines are shown .

cycles, and therefore more vertical lines are shown . Planetary steps Again, this charting tool is

Planetary steps

Again, this charting tool is similar to the tool discussed above, "Planetary equidistant line". As for that tool, here you can set the angle increment manually. And you can use not only the same step, but different steps (like in Fibonacci sequence). In the example below the mouse cursor is set on the beginning of April, 2009, when Mercury was in the first degree of Aries.The steps 15, 72 and 90 degrees are used. So vertical lines here point at 15 degrees of Aries, 12 degrees of Gemini (72 degrees) and first degree Cancer (90 degrees):

of Gemini (72 degrees) and first degree Cancer (90 degrees): Planetary fan This tool allows to
of Gemini (72 degrees) and first degree Cancer (90 degrees): Planetary fan This tool allows to

Planetary fan

This tool allows to display the bunch of planetary lines starting from point indicated by the mouse cursor. Here you can see the planetary lines for Mercury, the 1H, 2H, 3H, and 4H harmonics are used:

by the mouse cursor. Here you can see the planetary lines for Mercury, the 1H, 2H,
Multi Planetary fan (fixed scale) You can display the bunch of planetary lines for many

Multi Planetary fan (fixed scale)

You can display the bunch of planetary lines for many planets at the same time. Here you can see the planetary lines for major planets:

Here you can see the planetary lines for major planets: When you use more harmonics, these

When you use more harmonics, these lines look this way:

When you use more harmonics, these lines look this way: Multi Planetary fan (free scale) This
When you use more harmonics, these lines look this way: Multi Planetary fan (free scale) This

Multi Planetary fan (free scale)

This charting tools works very similar to the previous charting tool, though there is one important difference. You do not need to set the scale parameter for planetary lines, the program finds its automatically while you drag the mouse cursor. In example below the mouse cursor moved between two points of the price chart; the

Sun's planetary line hits both points. The planetary lines for other planets are displayed using the same scale as the scale for the Sun:

are displayed using the same scale as the scale for the Sun: In options you define

In options you define the planet to be used for Scaling:

In options you define the planet to be used for Scaling: Two Dimensional distance charting tools
In options you define the planet to be used for Scaling: Two Dimensional distance charting tools

Two Dimensional distance charting tools

You might hear sometimes phrases like this: "analyze price and time together", "price time chart". All these phrases mean that we analyze price and time as a whole Universe. Not analyzing separately price and separately time. Together, they form a kind of Universe, like South-North and East-West are not separate geographic entities - but they describe one and the same entity - the Earth's surface. Exactly the same approach can be applied to price-time Universe. These two charting tools represent our vision of on this problem. This set of tools combines regular and astro based tools are the advanced version of the tools discussed above.

Remember that this is an experimental technology. We do not provide any recommendations here yet as we need some time to understand how this approach really works. We will be able to do that after getting enough

response and feedback from users of these tools. However, even now this set of tools may provide some ideas how price-time landscape looks like.The first thing we should to is to define the distance between two points on this price-time landscape. Here you can see the example - the distances between turning points A, B, C and D; they form the angles close to harmonics:

distance A-B=356.47 degrees, close to the whole cycle;

distance B-C =89.22 degrees, close to a quarter of the whole cycle;

distance C-D =46.13 degrees, close to the eighth part of the whole cycle.

=46.13 degrees, close to the eighth part of the whole cycle. Thus we can draw equidistant

Thus we can draw equidistant cycles on the price - time landscape. It is possible (once again this is an experimental technique) that these cycles form a kind of attraction zones, like this:

these cycles form a kind of attraction zones, like this: Depending on the planetary combination used

Depending on the planetary combination used to calculate the geographic map for this price-time Universe, it may look like this:

This "Terra Incognita" needs to be explored more. Astrology without Natal chart I would like

This "Terra Incognita" needs to be explored more.

Astrology without Natal chart

I would like to start this article with a quote from Robert Hand's foreword to Bill Meridian's book, "Planetary Economic Forecasting". Here they are:

"Modern astrology is based on what is usually called the horoscope or birth chart

astrology which does not use horoscope chart. Here the planets are used as indicators of cycles. For example, we have the 20 year cycle of Jupiter and Saturn. We except to find cyclical patterns of twenty years duration in terrestrial phenomena and these phenomena reliably and continuously correlate with the movements of Jupiter and Saturn. Business and economic cycles fall into this category".We first faced with this problem in 1998, when the first astrological Neural Net had been developed. The task was classical: to get a forecast for future price movement taking into consideration the aspects to the Natal chart. Immediately the question has been raised: what Natal chart is correct? In 1998, I had not doubt regarding Natal charts - we used charts found and checked by such a professional in this field as Bill Meridian. However, while making a research, we always have a nasty feeling "what if our Natal chart is not correct? It means that all our calculations are wrong". A mistake of 10 minutes for the Natal chart can cause a significant discrepancy between the forecast and reality.The solution has been found very unexpectedly. Instead of analyzing the aspects of transiting planets to the Natal chart, we can analyze EACH degree of Zodiac. Thus, we move the accent from Natal chart to sensitive points.

But there is also a kind of

Look at this Composite diagram:

This diagram shows how the Volatility for Dow Jones Index changes in respect to Mars's

This diagram shows how the Volatility for Dow Jones Index changes in respect to Mars's position in different parts of Zodiac. The peak in the beginning of Virgo indicates high volatility when Mars is in the beginning of Virgo (geocentric system). It means that there is a lot of activity on the stock market when Mars passes this sensitive point.We can assume that the beginning of Virgo is some sensitive point for DJI. It is quite possible that some object of DJI's Natal chart is located in this point. The main idea of this approach is we do not care what Natal chart is applied for the analyzed financial instrument, we simply reveal its sensitive points, and the Composite module does this job very well.Thus, instead of arguing what Natal chart is true, we are watching what happens to the stock market when different planets come through different parts of Zodiac. Like in this example, DJI overreacts when Jupiter crosses 15 degrees of Leo:

DJI overreacts when Jupiter crosses 15 degrees of Leo: Some other sensitive/Natal point is responsible for

Some other sensitive/Natal point is responsible for this fact (not the same one as in the previous example). The advantage of this approach is that we do not need to know the exact time of the Natal chart, the program itself finds the sensitive points and creates the forecast models. The most important fact is that these models definitely provide the better forecasting models.So, how does Timing Solution software work with these sensitive points? In the Neural Net module, define this:

models.So, how does Timing Solution software work with these sensitive points? In the Neural Net module,

In the appeared window, choose diagonal elements that correspond to the FAM model for planetary positions:

that correspond to the FAM model for planetary positions: TS Neural Network will run a very

TS Neural Network will run a very sophisticated procedure called suboptimization. This procedure reveals the sensitive points very accurately. Moreover, it find the best orbs for all sensitive points.This approach seems to be more effective as it eliminates human preferences regarding true natal data, choice of the chart type (corporation versus registration etc.) and the orbs.

Forecast based on astronomical cycles

The models applied in this forecast are based on the assumption that planetary positions or angles between the planets are somehow related to the stock market movements. I would not say that the market moves because of the Sun in Libra or because of the Mercury - Mars trine. We do not know yet how the links between the planets and the market work. However, we can state that some connection exists between market's ups and downs and the mutual disposition of the planets in the sky above. The statistics is behind this statement. However, it is a subject for the scientists. For us, it is enough to know that there is a connection, and we can work with it. So, we can use it for our forecast. Download any daily price history and click this button:

we can use it for our forecast. Download any daily price history and click this button:

You will get something like this:

we can use it for our forecast. Download any daily price history and click this button:

This curve shows how the price changes in regards to the Sun passing through different Zodiac signs. There is no mystics here, it is a natural cycle that we all know. In other words, this is the Annual cycle. Now look at the Main screen:

this is the Annual cycle. Now look at the Main screen: This green curve shows how

This green curve shows how the Annual cycle works in time. To display this curve together with the price chart (not on a separate panel), click this button:

price chart (not on a separate panel), click this button: Similarly you can calculate any astronomical

Similarly you can calculate any astronomical cycle. As an example, analyze the angle between the Moon and the Sun, i.e. Moon phase cycle:

angle between the Moon and the Sun, i.e. Moon phase cycle: It is possible to use

It is possible to use different Zodiacs (why not? they are nothing else but different coordinate systems where we can observe the same planetary movement). See this cycle generated by a heliocentric position of Mercury:

this cycle generated by a heliocentric position of Mercury: "Mercury-Mercury" here means that the position of

"Mercury-Mercury" here means that the position of Mercury is being analyzed. When you change the planets/Zodiacs, the program redraws the projection line automatically.

You may work with just one cycle (I always start with the Annual cycle). Better results are achieved if you apply more than one cycle. Click on this button:

if you apply more than one cycle. Click on this button: The cycle you are working

The cycle you are working with goes to "Composite Box". Thus you can add as many cycles as you need and obtain the projection line which is based on several astronomical cycles. Look at this picture:

based on several astronomical cycles. Look at this picture: The blue line represents a composite cycle

The blue line represents a composite cycle which is based on heliocentric positions of three planets: Mercury, Venus and Mars.If you need to get more smooth projection line, not so choppy, increase the smoothing orb parameter in "Options":

increase the smoothing orb parameter in "Options": Astrological cycle based models in Timing Solution This

Astrological cycle based models in Timing Solution

This article is devoted to pure astrological models presented in Timing Solution. We have discussed already two other types of models used in the program - based on math methods and based on astronomy. Now it is time to look at totally different models - models based on astrological phenomena. This approach is very interesting, and the most interesting part is that today we can combine thousands years of astrological wisdom

together with the newest math technologies (like Neural Network modeling) and hardware abilities (i.e. computers, their memory, speed, etc.). However, before any discussion, I would like to explain the main difference between astrological and astronomical/math based cycles. Do you have any idea as to what would a mathematician and an astrologer think when somebody tells them about the Sun cycle?

Mathematician:

He sees it as the regular cycle with the period of 365.25 days. He may discuss how many figures are after the point. Anyways, immediately the sinus curve appears in his brain, something like this:

the sinus curve appears in his brain, something like this: The mathematician likes this curve very

The mathematician likes this curve very much, and he tends to describe the whole Universe as the Great Combination of these Harmonic waves.

Astrologer:

Astrologer sees a totally different picture. He sees Zodiac, either as a circle or something like this:

He sees Zodiac, either as a circle or something like this: This picture demonstrates the movement

This picture demonstrates the movement of the Sun through 12 signs of Zodiac. Each year, on March 21, the Sun ingresses the sign of Aries; it is there for a month, and during that month the Sun's quality is colored by Aries sign. The astrologer also may use the phrases like this: "The Sun likes this sign because it exalts there". Practically it means that the Ecliptic is divided into 12 equal sectors (signs of Zodiac), and the Sun "feels" itself differently in each of these sectors. For example, in Leo (middle of summer) the Sun feels itself very good, like being home (Leo is a sign ruled by the Sun, or the sign of the Sun's dignity). When the Sun ingresses Aries, it feels itself there very good as well, like staying in the house of a very good friend (in Aries the Sun exalts). To continue the analogy, there are some places where the Sun feels itself not comfortable. One of these places is Libra (October), the Sun's fall place. Another is Aquarius (at the end of winter), a place of the Sun's detriment - the Sun is weak there. The same picture comes to the astrologer's mind when he thinks about other planets, they also feel themselves differently in different places of Zodiac.This approach came from ancient times, astrology goes back for several thousands years! The ancient astrologers observed the celestial bodies and simply compared what had happened on the Earth and on the Sky. You can get in touch with their feelings if you try to watch the Moon in different signs of Zodiac within several years; simply memorize your attitude during these 2-days intervals, year by year.Now you see the difference between the mathematician's and the astrologer's view on Annual cycle. The mathematician sees a smooth wave, and the difference between 359th and 1st degree of Ecliptic coordinates is not a big thing for him. For astrologer, there is the difference between

the two, a big difference: the Sun in Pieces and the Sun in Aries gives to us a totally different astrological situation and results in two totally different outcomes. The astrologer takes into account not only quantities, but qualities as well.There are more places in Zodiac associated with specific planets. One kind of them is terms. This approach is based on the idea of rulership. The Zodiac is divided on 60 non equal sectors, and each sector is ruled by some planet. For example, the sector 0-6 degrees of Aries is ruled by Jupiter. Next segment is wider, 6-14 degrees of Aries, and it is ruled by Venus. (Actually there are two systems of terms - Egyptian and Ptolemy; here we speak about Ptolemy system).I like this table with planetary dignities from this website http://www.astrologycom.com/dignities.html

this website http://www.astrologycom.com/dignities.html The classical astrology says that the planet becomes

The classical astrology says that the planet becomes stronger (i.e., its qualities are more obvious) when it moves through its own term. (It is a hint for a good model, and I cannot imagine how this model could be done

manually, without a computer. Too many calculations

The Zodiac is divided here on 36 equal segments, each segment has 10 degrees. And each segment is ruled by some planet.The faces and decanates use different planetary rulers. The face is more ancient system based on so called Chaldean order (our 7 days of the week come from this system).I believe that you have now enough reasons to try astrology based models. (I did not mention here aspects and midpoints for a reason. They are rather recent additions to astrology. They combine astrology and astronomy, and nowadays there is a tendency to more astronomy there. Remember the essential and accidental dignities; you will see my point.)

)Other

division of the Zodiac is faces and decanates.

Technology

There is one more thing to tell you. I would like to share with you my experience in regards to applying astrology for stock market. When I started to develop a trading system based on astrological factors, my first attempt was to use aspects. It was a very appealing idea - turning points would occur when important aspects culminate. But the results were not good. Then I tried to use middle points, planetary pictures etc. The models became more and more complicated while the results were not good at all. Finally I recognized the obvious truth that we have to start with the most important factors, and in Classical Astrology this truth is essential dignities (related to planetary positions and planetary qualities; as the source of information, see Bonatti, Lilly's books). Now we are ready to discuss the technology; it is time to apply this ancient knowledge to stock market

forecast. The time is right because we have now modern computers that are able to conduct in seconds the calculations that would take many years of hard work for the ancient astrologer.Running Neural Network module, set this forecast model:

Neural Network module, set this forecast model: You will get the window where you can define

You will get the window where you can define the parameters of forecast models:

where you can define the parameters of forecast models: These controls allow you to analyze the

These controls allow you to analyze the position of the planets in different places of Zodiac, it can be Dignity, Detriment, Exaltation, Fall, Terms, Faces and Decanates:

Thus the program will find how the position of the planets in different Zodiacal places

Thus the program will find how the position of the planets in different Zodiacal places affects the stock market.

in different Zodiacal places affects the stock market. This option as an analysis of different Zodiacal

This option

as an analysis of different Zodiacal symmetries.As an example, consider the Sun in one of the triplicities. Let it be the event "The Sun is in Fire signs". This event involves three signs - Aries, Leo, and Sagittarius. The diagram shows them as red-colored sectors:

allows to research different divisions of the Zodiac. Take it

to research different divisions of the Zodiac. Take it The example of cardinality event is "The

The example of cardinality event is "The Sun is in Cardinal sign", here it is:

event is "The Sun is in Cardinal sign", here it is: The example of hemisphere event

The example of hemisphere event is "The Sun is in upper hemisphere". It looks:

Try to create the model setting this option only: You will see how the ancient

Try to create the model setting this option only:

Try to create the model setting this option only: You will see how the ancient techniques

You will see how the ancient techniques work. Try also to use Geo and Geo+Helio combinations.Here you can set different Zodiacs. Use "In Mundo" Zodiac for intraday data. It is obvious that ancient astrologers worked with Geo only:

for intraday data. It is obvious that ancient astrologers worked with Geo only: Here you can

Here you can set the scheme of rulership:

If you choose the "Own rulership", the program will analyze the positions of the planets

If you choose the "Own rulership", the program will analyze the positions of the planets when they are in places of their dignities, like "The Sun moves through its own sign of exaltation", or "Jupiter moves through Ptolemy Term that is ruled by Jupiter". If you choose "Mutual rulership", the more advanced events that involve two planets will be available for you, like: "The Sun moves through Jupiter's sign of exaltation", or "Jupiter moves through Ptolemy Term that is ruled by Venus". I highly recommend to try this option.

This is a totally experimental feature:

to try this option. This is a totally experimental feature: It allows to research the angle

It allows to research the angle between the planets. In other words the Zodiacal position is defined as an angle between planets.

The next very important parameter that I recommend to vary is the amount of price bars that is used to train Neural Network:

amount of price bars that is used to train Neural Network: I recommend to use this

I recommend to use this model for daily price history.

Usually I start to work using all available data (before Learning Border Cursor) to train Neural Net ("All" button). After that I use 1000 bars (4 years = Presidential cycle), then 2000 bars and 5000 bars.

Clicking "Train" button

2000 bars and 5000 bars. Clicking "Train" button we tell the program to calculate the projection

we tell the program to calculate the projection line based on these events.

Ancient + Modern Technology

You definitely hear the statements like this (from website http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triplicity):

In medieval systems of astrology, each essential dignity was given a different weight. Domicile rulers were given 5 points of weight; exaltation rulers were given 4 points; and triplicity rulers were assigned 3 points of weight. This gives some idea of how much power medieval astrologers accorded to each essential dignity. [7]

In other words, we weight planetary positions in attempt to evaluate their rank in the situation. This ancient technique fits well to the modern technology. I have download Dow Jones Industrial index data for the last 18 years. Then I ran Neural Net module using the model based on astrological events and trained it.

After that I click this button:

events and trained it. After that I click this button: Here you can see the ranked

Here you can see the ranked list of events for this model:

The first item here is "Saturn in Cardinal signs", this is the strongest term in

The first item here is "Saturn in Cardinal signs", this is the strongest term in this model. The second strong is "Mars is in own sign of dignity". Next is "Saturn in Air signs", etc.

Now highlight %X first the strongest events there (push "Shift" key and select these items). I highlighted first 24 events.

key and select these items). I highlighted first 24 events. Click this button You may like

Click this button

You may like to hide Neural Network results panel now; push this button:

to put these events into Universal; Language of Events (ULE) module.

Neural Network results panel now; push this button: to put these events into Universal; Language of

You will get the projection line based on these 24 astrological events.

To see inside of this model, click "Edit ULE" button:

see inside of this model, click "Edit ULE" button: Simply read this formula as it is.

Simply read this formula as it is. To forecast Dow, we need to set these weights for astrological events:

Event

Weight

Saturn in Cardinal signs (designated as L1)

-18.2

Mars in own sign of dignity (designated as L2)

+14.2

Saturn in AIR signs (designated as L3)

-13.4

Overview of astro cycle based models in Timing Solution Pro et Contra

Working with astro based cycles, I always face with a sociological phenomenon of non acceptance of astrology. This attitude has no rational explanation, it just reflects the social status of astrology. However, for medium/long term forecasts the astro based models provide very good projection lines, and it would be simply stupid to not use them.Here I put several random projection lines based on so called "Dynamic Model". There was no selection here, just a mere fact as it is. This model is based on astronomical factors, and I did the detailed back testing of this model many times. The conclusions are:

1) This model is not ideal, it explains only some part of the stock market behavior. But - while working on the stock market forecast, any information is important.

2) This model is really able to forecast for one year (250 daily bars) ahead, it is a statistically verified fact.

3) This model is not a combination of well-known Annual cycles, some other factors are playing here.

I very often ask myself: "Does the astrology works?" Actually the Timing Solution's architecture reflects my search for the answer. With this software, we can create the astro based models as well as very complicated math based models (like spectrum analysis, auto regression and others). And we can compare these models. I love the astrology; however my scientific background requires to test all statements before putting them into models that TS users apply for their trading. I feel myself responsible for the provided information.

So, I will introduce astronomical/astrological techniques available in Timing Solution. I tried to be fair here, i.e. the examples were not selected with the purpose of making a good appearance. See yourselves

Bradley Model

This is a model based on Ptolemy aspects applied for market forecast by Donald Bradley in 1946. This is how it looks like:

by Donald Bradley in 1946. This is how it looks like: The turning points A and

The turning points A and B projected by Bradley model are very impressive, are not they?

To get a better understanding of this model, view it in a bigger time frame:

It is obviously not ideal, and we need to work more with this model. In

It is obviously not ideal, and we need to work more with this model.

In Timing Solution you can adjust this model using slides on the right side. You can vary this model in a thousand ways: using different weights for aspects, playing with the orbs and Zodiacs; you may even create something like a kind of Bradley model based on middle points.

Here you will find some information regarding Bradley model http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Study/Bradley/index.htm

I love Donald Bradley’s book "Stock Market Prediction". It looks like he was the first one to try to present astrological techniques using a language understandable not to the astrological community only. However we need to develop this technique further. I believe he would do the same if he would be alive.

Evolution of Bradley Model

The model proposed by Donald Bradley (he called it siderograph) in 1947 is the most fractionated technique in financial astrology. I personally believe that Bradley opened for astrology the door to financial analysis. At least, since that moment the financial astrology started speaking the language understandable to somebody else, not only to astrology fellows.

Technically speaking, the siderograph is nothing more than a curve based on transiting aspects. So we can consider the siderograph as the summary effect of transiting aspects. The aspects are divided on three groups:

middle term - the aspects that include the Sun, Mercury, Venus and Mars;

long term - the aspects for slow planets (from Jupiter to Pluto)

declination factor - "

half the algebraic sum of the given declination of Venus and Mars

"

This article is devoted mostly to technical issues of using the Bradley type indicators for traders needs.

If you would like to know more regarding the history of Bradley barometer. please see this interesting article by Larry Pesavento:

Of course, the original book of Donald A. Bradley is highly recommended.

When the theory comes to the open World, the first question that usually arises is: how to improve this theory. Regarding Bradley model, there have been a lot of questions there:

- do we need to take into account the North Node?

- what orb is better (Bradley used 15 degrees orb)?

- what about heliocentric aspects?

- what about creating a model based on Natal Chart?

- what weights for different aspects are better to use?

In 1947, when most of the calculations were performed manually, it was practically impossible to answer these questions. The only available computers (like ENIAC) were used for army and nuclear physics needs only.

Nowadays, we can answer these questions. Each one was a step in developing the Bradley models as we now them now.

So, this is the story of developing Bradley models. The Bradley model has been presented in the earlier versions of Market Trader software (see http://www.alphee.com). In 2004, it was developed as a stand alone Bradley Barometer program. This program allows to create all possible Bradley type models (with Natal chart, Heliocentric Zodiac on others). You can find Alphee Lavoie's video explanation regarding this software here:

The most interesting feature here is that we can adjust the weights for all terms and immediately see how the projection line changes:

feature here is that we can adjust the weights for all terms and immediately see how

Now, as a part of Timing Solution project (http://www.timingsolution.com), the Bradley models use genetic optimization procedure. It helps to find the best fitting projection line based on these models. The idea of optimization is pretty simple - we are looking for the weights for all aspects in order to describe the past price movement in the best way.

Let's demonstrate how to get the optimized Bradley model. We do just one example. Download the Dow Jones Industrial Index from February 2006 to July 17, 2006. This is short price history, five months only. The Neural Network does not allow to make the projected line based on such a short price history. However, Bradley module does this job very well.

The classical Bradley provides this projection into the future:

classical Bradley provides this projection into the future: Let's optimize this Bradley model. Click button. You

Let's optimize this Bradley model. Click

provides this projection into the future: Let's optimize this Bradley model. Click button. You will get

button. You will get this window:

Here you should define the "target" - it is what we need to forecast. In

Here you should define the "target" - it is what we need to forecast. In this example, I work with the relative price oscillator with the period of 10 price bars. You can try to make forecast for other indicators like volatility, ADX, RSI, etc.

Click "Start" button to see how the red projection line changes while adjusting to available price history.

Be advised that to optimize we use the price data on TRAINING INTERVAL only:

to optimize we use the price data on TRAINING INTERVAL only: The red zone is TESTING

The red zone is TESTING INTERVAL to verify our projection line.

After the optimization procedure, the projection line looks:

Now, I would like to add some technical notes regarding the usage of Advanced Bradley

Now, I would like to add some technical notes regarding the usage of Advanced Bradley Barometer in Timing Solution software.

When you work with long price history data, the program shows you the projection line not for ALL available price history points, but for the LAST %x price bars only:

the program shows you the projection line not for ALL available price history points, but for

We have done that to speed up the process of recalculation of the projection line when you vary the weights corresponding to different terms.

when you vary the weights corresponding to different terms. You can increase this parameter like this:

You can increase this parameter like this:

available price history (do not forget to clock "OK" after the increase).

to see the projection line for all

When you run the Bradley model, choose one of the following models:

run the Bradley model, choose one of the following models: "Custom FAM 1" model allows to

"Custom FAM 1" model allows to create so called FAM model that analyses the active zones of Zodiac.

Try to apply this type of models (I mean, Bradley models) for the short price history data. Comparing to Neural Net based models (that need a lot of data for training), this is a very important and unique feature.

Planetary Time

It is a popular technique among TS users.

Planetary Time It is a popular technique among TS users. It is simple: we display the

It is simple: we display the vertical lines that are equidistant in respect to some planetary position (or to the angle between two planets). The example above shows the lines that correspond to 5-degree step from some initial position of Saturn in Leo (to be exact, 5 degrees and 42 minutes). Thus, instead of time intervals, we watch planetary position related intervals. This technique is described here http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Articles/PT/

Astronomy Module

This module allows to reveal astronomical cycles inside the financial data.

The simplest astronomical cycle is Annual cycle. It uses the Sun position only. See how this cycle looks for S&P 500:

Sun position only. See how this cycle looks for S&P 500: And this is a projection

And this is a projection line calculated for the Sun's cycle:

is a projection line calculated for the Sun's cycle: We can calculate more complicated cycles as

We can calculate more complicated cycles as well. For example, this is a composite for the Moon phases (the Moon - the Sun angle):

The diagram shows that in average S&P500 is higher when the angle between the Moon

The diagram shows that in average S&P500 is higher when the angle between the Moon and the Sun is between 0 and 150 degrees (increasing light/Waxing Moon).

You can combine many different cycles creating models based on that combination of several astro cycles.

This module is described in details in Classes: http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Study/index.htm

Universal Language of Events (ULE)

You can calculate practically any astro phenomena using this module.

As an example, see the speed difference between Mars and Venus in Declination Zodiac (a red diagram):

example, see the speed difference between Mars and Venus in Declination Zodiac (a red diagram): or

or Berg astro indicator:

or the Moon tidal force: All these events as well as many and many others

or the Moon tidal force:

or the Moon tidal force: All these events as well as many and many others can

All these events as well as many and many others can be calculated there.

Moreover you can provide the statistical analysis for all these events avoiding any kind of dicing/guessing so dangerous for trader. This is a very powerful module, and I recommend to everybody to study it really well. You will be able to test in seconds any statements that may affect your trading. Try it any time when you hear about some magical aspect/astro combination/ astro hint from some advisor - you will see immediately whether it is just one time magic or there is something behind it that worth of your attention.

This module is described in Classes as well: http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Study/index.htm

Planetary Lines

This module is available in Timing Solution. See the documentation.

Neural Network Module

This is a universal forecast system that allows to make a forecast based on any astro and non astro event/events.

This is the list of the most used models in Neural Network module:

the list of the most used models in Neural Network module: The model can be based

The model can be based on:

planetary speed (the description is here http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Uphistory/upgrade_27.doc);

waxing/waning planetary phases (the description is here http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Articles/waxwan/);

planetary positions (FAM model)

aspects between planets (improved Bradley model)

the old technique of planetary positions in different terms/faces (this is a surprisingly effective model); and many other things.

You could use midpoints, planetary pictures, Zodiacal positions, planetary hours (for intraday), and more.

Our strong point is that any of these models can be back tested providing a trader a solid background for his/her decisions.

Forecast models based on planetary speeds

In this upgrade I have found a way to work with planetary speeds smarter. Actually you were able to work with planetary speeds before, using this ULE event:

For example, this is the diagram of Mercury speed: However, the usage of this type

For example, this is the diagram of Mercury speed:

For example, this is the diagram of Mercury speed: However, the usage of this type of

However, the usage of this type of events for the forecast is not a good idea. It is much better to forecast with the planetary speeds if we apply the ideas that come from Fuzzy Logic science. Instead of using the speed itself, we deal with events like this one: "Mercury is direct and its speed is the highest" or "Mercury is retrograde, and its speed is medium". To create this kind of events in the Neural Network module, follow these steps:

is medium". To create this kind of events in the Neural Network module, follow these steps:

Here choose this tab:

See what events the program creates for the Moon (as an example): 1) 20% of

See what events the program creates for the Moon (as an example):

events the program creates for the Moon (as an example): 1) 20% of the time ("20"

1)

20% of the time ("20" - because the amount of grades=5) the speed of the Moon is lower than 12º2’52”

2)

Another 20% of the time the speed of the Moon is between 12º2’52” and

12º44’45’’

3)

Next speed range is 12dº44’45’’ and 13º34’24’’

4)

13º34’24’’ and 14º13’02’’

5)

and finally 20% of time the speed of the Moon is higher than 14º13’02’’

The most important issue regarding this way of breaking the Moon's speed is that they are of equal time intervals. See how these events for graded Moon's speed look in time:

Moon's speed is that they are of equal time intervals. See how these events for graded

Starting from this upgrade, you are able to apply these events to generate the Neural Network projection line using all planets in geo and helio Zodiacs:

projection line using all planets in geo and helio Zodiacs: These are the random projection lines

These are the random projection lines based on planetary speeds:

line using all planets in geo and helio Zodiacs: These are the random projection lines based
line using all planets in geo and helio Zodiacs: These are the random projection lines based
Here I use planetary speeds for the planets in Geo and Helio Zodiacs; training interval
Here I use planetary speeds for the planets in Geo and Helio Zodiacs; training interval

Here I use planetary speeds for the planets in Geo and Helio Zodiacs; training interval = 1000 bars:

in Geo and Helio Zodiacs; training interval = 1000 bars: The detailed Back Testing for this

The detailed Back Testing for this model shows that the best training interval for the short/medium term forecast is 500 bars (2 years). Here is the statistics that shows how these models forecast future %X bars ahead:

Forecast %X bars ahead

% positive correlations between price and projection line

Average correlation

10

bars

62.5% (+125/-75)

0.153

20

bars

60.0% (+120/-80)

0.145

30

bars

60.5% (+121/-79)

0.124

Also this model is good to forecast 1 year ahead (250 bars). To make a long term forecast, set the training interval to 2.000 bars (8 years). This is the statistical result for this model:

The Back Testing report is here (800Kb) Dozen of projection lines based on the best

Phenomenological Solution in Timing Solution

Among standard solutions provided by the program is one called "Phenomenological" (based on phenomenological models). I will explain in this small article how this model works.

Phenomenological models are based on astronomical ideas. Inside the models, the program not only calculates the positions and physical parameters of involved physical bodies, it also defines the importance (weight) of each factor in a general picture. To make the weight decisions, we use Neural Network technology.

Before running this solution, you should break the whole available price history data on two parts, "training" and "testing" intervals:

The border between them is called LBC (the learning border cursor). The general idea of

The border between them is called LBC (the learning border cursor).

The general idea of this model is: we optimize many models using the price history from the testing interval. After that we compare how all these models can forecast; we do it on the testing interval. Thus we estimate the forecast ability of all these models. We analyze many astronomy based models. Then we choose three of them that provide the best forecast on the testing interval. To obtain the final forecast, the program sets LBC on the last available price bar and optimizes these Neural Nets once again, now taking into account all available price history. Thus we find the models that have provided the best forecast in the past and use these models to forecast the future. Here the future starts right after the last available price bar (the position of LBC), and for the forecast all available price history is taken into account.

Let's do it together.

First of all, download the price history; it should be daily data. To apply this solution, the minimum price data is 5 years.

Next step is to break the whole price history on two intervals, training and testing ones. There are many ways to do that in Timing Solution; the easiest way is using the right mouse button. Move the cursor to the place on the price chart where you want to set LBC, click right mouse button:

and choose "Set LBC " item in the menu. Then clicking this button and highlighting

and choose "Set LBC

" item in the menu.

Then clicking this button

LBC " item in the menu. Then clicking this button and highlighting "Phenomenological.ts" item, we run

and highlighting "Phenomenological.ts" item, we run this solution:

The program will analyze 33 different models based on astronomical factors, choose the best ones and provide the final forecast based on the chosen models:

The only parameter I recommend to vary is the length of the testing interval. Try

The only parameter I recommend to vary is the length of the testing interval. Try to put the LBC at different places on the price chart. I usually do two variants: one uses two last months as a testing interval (thus we try to find the models that have provided a good forecast recently), another uses several years for a testing interval (because we are looking for permanent models).

Phenomenological Models

A good forecast is based on a proper model. It means that the choice of the forecasting model is important.

Actually, this is the first thing to do in forecasting - choose the model that is the best for the problem that needs

to be solved.Let look at one practical example. Somebody wants to know what is most likely to happen to the

financial instrument X. In other words, we need to do a forecast for this financial instrument (here I do not

provide the name and actual data file for the financial instrument X as it is a part of a commercial project for one of our users; however, I understand that it is an additional information that helps to choose the proper model). The available data file covers more than 200 years of history. And the task is to make a long term forecast.First question is: what this forecast should be based on? The Timing Solution has a huge arsenal of methods that allow to make a forecast easily, just by few mouse clicks:

models based on fixed cycles (extracted from Spectrum module of the program);

astronomy based cycles;

auto regression (nonlinear auto regression + Fuzzy Logic + Neural Net, see Back Testing results for this method);

wavelet analysis.

The specially developed Object Oriented Neural Network allows to get the projection line that uses the maximum of all available historical data.

The question is: what technique is more suitable for this particular task?

We state that the use of astronomy based models is the best approach for this task. It looks like this is simply the best choice. The long and hard Back Testing work shows that the regular spectrum based model very often reminds the kite without the rope. It is there, and we cannot do much; it follows some high winds that we may not be even aware of. The Spectrum module reveals the playing cycles very well; however, this approach fits very well to the short term forecast. But when we try to apply this technique to the long term forecast, we fail. To make a long term forecast, we should find a support of something more fundamental. Astronomical cycles are the best for this task.So, we download the price history (sorry, the price chart is not displayed due to reasons mentioned above; the main idea of this Study article is just to show how to make a long term forecast):

article is just to show how to make a long term forecast): Usually we divide the

Usually we divide the price history on two intervals: blue - training interval - we use this interval to research our data and train the Neural Net. Red - Testing interval serves to verify our models. The "future leaks" are excluded.These are monthly data, and we need to decide what astronomical cycles can help with our research. Keep in your mind this table of planetary periods:

I marked the cycles that are more suitable to research 200 years of monthly price

I marked the cycles that are more suitable to research 200 years of monthly price history.

Do a mouse click somewhere in the middle of 2006, to mark down where we are now:

in the middle of 2006, to mark down where we are now: Run module to reveal

Run

in the middle of 2006, to mark down where we are now: Run module to reveal

module to reveal the astronomical cycles and set this parameter in "Options":

cycles and set this parameter in "Options": In other words, to calculate the composite, we will

In other words, to calculate the composite, we will use all price history on TRAINING INTERVAL.

This option reflects different approaches to the nature of astronomical cycles' impact on markets. Setting "All Points" option, we state the permanent approach. We assume that some planet affects the stock market the same way in the year 1790, in the year 1850, in 1900, and now - the effect is always the same; we speak here about the infinite memory of the market. Another approach is finite memory (under this approach, we believe that the Moon's impact on the stock market in 1980 differs from what it is now).

We have not find a final answer to that question; however, it looks like this scheme works better for slow planets.

Now we need to look at all composite diagrams one-by-one.

Look at this Jupiter cycle composite:

diagrams one-by-one. Look at this Jupiter cycle composite: Besides the major colored diagram, you can see

Besides the major colored diagram, you can see three red, blue and black lines that correspond to composites calculated on three different independent price intervals. We can take this cycle as an important one if these three lines demonstrate the same tendency. We speak about tendency as it is very difficult to make formal criteria to estimate the cycle's importance. This diagram gives us some hints though we understand that these criteria are not mathematically complete, the intuition is very important here. It is why we call these models "phenomenological".

Something tells us that Jupiter is very important for this financial instrument, the diagram confirms this fact.

Please be aware that the "inversions" are possible in our diagram:

that the "inversions" are possible in our diagram: The existence of inversions points at the non-obvious

The existence of inversions points at the non-obvious and/non-linear reaction of the stock market to this cycle. The black vertical line on this diagram shows the cursor position; we set it in the middle of 2006. It is necessary to figure out what phase of this cycle we are now in.

When you decide that this cycle is important, click "+" button:

Another important cycle is Jupiter-Neptune cycle: Click "+" button again. Also, the Saturn cycle looks

Another important cycle is Jupiter-Neptune cycle:

Another important cycle is Jupiter-Neptune cycle: Click "+" button again. Also, the Saturn cycle looks appealing:

Click "+" button again.

Also, the Saturn cycle looks appealing:

button again. Also, the Saturn cycle looks appealing: Thus, we choose three cycles that we believe

Thus, we choose three cycles that we believe are able to move this financial instrument.

To prepare these cycles for the Neural Network module, send them into the clipboard:

to move this financial instrument. To prepare these cycles for the Neural Network module, send them

You can play with "orb" parameter as well, let's set it on 15 degrees.

Now is the time to make a projection line based on these 3 cycles.

Run Neural Network module.

We need to define what we want to forecast. Because our financial instrument has a trend, we recommend to use the relative price oscillator:

a trend, we recommend to use the relative price oscillator: We can play with different variants.

We can play with different variants.

The next step is to define "inputs" - what this forecast is based on. We just need to pick up these cycles from the clipboard:

on. We just need to pick up these cycles from the clipboard: Train the Neural Network

Train the Neural Network ("Training" button) and look at the projection line:

Here the red interval is Testing interval, we do not use the price points from

Here the red interval is Testing interval, we do not use the price points from this interval neither to calculate cycles, nor to train the Neural Network. The "future leaks" are excluded.

The red curve is Neural Network projection line, while the black line is the Relative Price Oscillator for our financial instrument. You see that the red line reflects the major movements of the real price rather well. This gives us the some confirmation that we are on the right track.

Now we are ready for the final optimization - ready to make the final forecast that is based on ALL available price information. Click here to set LBC (Learning Border Cursor) to the last available price point:

price information. Click here to set LBC (Learning Border Cursor) to the last available price point:

This is the forecast:

price information. Click here to set LBC (Learning Border Cursor) to the last available price point:

To be sure that I am not missing any important factor, I have created the Neural Net projection line with more astronomical cycles added. They might be not so important, however it is good to see

This is the forecast:

important, however it is good to see This is the forecast: Compare this with the projection

Compare this with the projection line produced by Spectrum based model; we will face the "reaction" effect. The Spectrum model does not support fundamental cycles, and it looks like it is blind regarding the long term forecast. This model is good enough to pick up the latest cycles and make short term forecast. If we apply the Spectrum model to our instrument, we will get:

we apply the Spectrum model to our instrument, we will get: Our financial instrument has a

Our financial instrument has a big up trend within several last years while the Spectrum model tells that the trend will be finished immediately (you can easily see that varying LBC position). The usage of fundamental cycles allows to avoid this effect.

The difference between Spectrum and Astronomical models is like the difference between a person who makes his/her decisions based on rumors and gossip and a person who prefers to know fundamental factors. But, as I said earlier, for short term forecast, the Spectrum model is pretty good. (Why I consider the astronomical cycles being fundamental is a theme for another article.)

These are some notes regarding this kind of models:

1. Do not set too many astronomical cycles. In our example, we have defined three cycles only:

cycles. In our example, we have defined three cycles only: These are major astronomical cycles that

These are major astronomical cycles that rule this particular financial instrument.

2. Can we trust our model? Let's rephrase this question: "Where we can make a mistake?". First of all, we can make a mistake while choosing the planetary cycles. The second thing to consider is that the good coincidence between a projection (red) line and the price (blue) can happen occasionally:

(red) line and the price (blue) can happen occasionally: So the red interval (testing) should be

So the red interval (testing) should be big enough to avoid occasional coincidence between the projection line and the price.

Example # 2

As one more example, let us look at one more financial instrument, TWM. This is Taiwan stock, and I have spent many hours searching for its appropriate model. These are all my steps:

As a first attempt, I have chosen 14 astronomical cycles. I decided that all these cycles were important, and I made a mistake. The projection line based on these cycles was reflecting a noise mostly.

So I deleted all these 14 cycles from my composite box (clicking this button):

Then I disabled all additional information in the Astronomy window and concentrated on most important

Then I disabled all additional information in the Astronomy window and concentrated on most important information:

window and concentrated on most important information: Here you see three independent composite diagrams: red, blue

Here you see three independent composite diagrams: red, blue and black. Be careful while checking all planetary cycles involved. Think twice before clicking on "+" button to add this cycle to the Composite box. It is like you are making the decision to buy a new laptop in a big shop. Non-correct decision - and you will get a headache solving many different computer problems. I have selected these cycles:

different computer problems. I have selected these cycles: The next step in verification of my hypothesis

The next step in verification of my hypothesis is creating projection line, here it is:

Practically for two years this model worked very good. This coincidence is definitely not occasional.

Practically for two years this model worked very good. This coincidence is definitely not occasional. But then, in the end of 2004, something has happened. It looks like the new factor/cycles started to affect this financial instrument. The market still remembers its old cycles, but very often the reaction to these cycles is opposite to what has been expressed by the inversion effect:

opposite to what has been expressed by the inversion effect: I got the same result applying

I got the same result applying another alternative model (Dynamic model).

Example # 3

This example allows to make the projection line for Dow Jones Industrial index. As a source, we take monthly data for DJI from 1895 to March 2006; for the years 1789 - 1885 the specially developed indicator that reflects the pulse of American economy has been chosen. These monthly data were developed by the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. Bill Meridian has obtained these data in 1988 and maintains them since that year. I selected these cycles:

This is the Neural Net projection line:

This is the Neural Net projection line: You see that the red projection line describes the
This is the Neural Net projection line: You see that the red projection line describes the

You see that the red projection line describes the DJI changes pretty good. This is more detailed picture:

the DJI changes pretty good. This is more detailed picture: Why and when should we use

Why and when should we use phenomenological models?

I specially named these kind of models "phenomenological" because I have no idea regarding the formal criteria of cycles' selection. Believe me, I tried a lot, see the documentation, there are eight different criteria of choosing the cycles. But all formal criteria provide formal results, without adding a "hand" work, we might lose something. When pure math efforts are not enough, it is time to give more room for human intuition. This is the reason why I spend a lot of time setting the parameters "by default". It allows to the user of Timing Solution software to see the structure of the model for some specific financial instrument easily. If the user would spent one second changing some parameter, there is a strong chance that he/she might forget and miss something really important. The default settings are like landmarks in models' creation. When the user is familiar with them enough, he/she is ready to create his/her own models.

The accuracy of math methods applied in the program are guaranteed. To be correct, I must say that we have got very good results for pure mathematical models. See Back Testing results. But all these models are concentrated on short term forecast. When we are interested in long term forecast, math methods are not enough. We have to include something else.A single human brain contains the information of human evolution from the simplest live forms to the modern humankind. It covers several hundreds million years of data!!! As an example, when we define our orientation in the physical space, we rely on the experience of ancient live forms. Our movements, emotions, thinking are not a product of simple Aristotle logic, their source is much more deeper. Thus, creating a forecast we should be armed with the modern math for sure. However, we should remember as well that the price can contain some hints invisible in the frames of the formal math. Simply we have not enough price history for that. Our Stone Age ancestors did not trade (at least, there are no records regarding this) and did not have stock exchanges, though we use nowadays their survival experience as well. Sometimes intuition and experience provide better hints - like choosing Jupiter cycle as a fundamental one in the Example #1. We observe here not only the composite diagrams, we keep in our minds as well the information that Jupiter is the largest planet in the Solar system, it is very important in Chinese tradition.

Jupiter-Saturn 20 years cycle

Recently I have got several questions regarding Jupiter-Saturn 20 years cycle. It looks like some discussion of its impact on the stock market has been conducted somewhere.Let us do it together. We start with the common sense consideration of the common market researcher. And here comes the disappointment. Why? By default, the cycle is some pattern repeated in time. In other words, assuming that some 20-year cycle exists (Jupiter - Saturn cycle is 19.9 years) we expect that the price history that reveals itself now (winter 2008) has some analogy to the price history 20 years ago, i.e. in the year 1988. This is how the classic science and common sense understand cycles. However, look at this Jupiter-Saturn cycle in details. I have calculated the moments when Jupiter conjuncts Saturn in heliocentric Zodiac and displayed them together with Dow Jones Industrial history data from 1885 year (logarithm scale used):

history data from 1885 year (logarithm scale used): The conjunction moments are marked by vertical stripes.

The conjunction moments are marked by vertical stripes. You see these conjunctions divide the whole history data file onto 20-year intervals. At this part, the cyclic idea works. The 20-year Jupiter-Saturn cycle exists. It is

not the same in regards to price patterns. The hypothesis is that the same price patterns (or almost the same) should be present for all these intervals.

I looked through all conjunctions and DJI around them and could not find any common sense analogy here. See

yourself. Is there anything similar between these two six year intervals after Jupiter-Saturn conjunctions (years 1981 and 2000)?

after Jupiter-Saturn conjunctions (years 1981 and 2000)? I do not think so. Or can you see

I do not think so.

Or can you see any analogy between these three consequent 20 years intervals:

Does it mean that Jupiter-Saturn cycle on the markets does not exist? From the point

Does it mean that Jupiter-Saturn cycle on the markets does not exist? From the point of view of the formal math, it does: there are not found regular 20-year patterns for DJI, so the cycle does not exist. We may consider instead stochastic cycles (described in Chaos theory). Stochastic cycle is the cycle when the entity (the stock market in our case) keeps its structure - habits and behavior.

I could leave here (as many critics of financial astrology do). I almost did it. But something stopped me from

making this final conclusion. Actually we could consider instead stochastic cycles (described in Chaos theory).

Stochastic cycle is the cycle when the entity (the stock market in our case) keeps its structure - habits and behavior. And - do you see where we are going from there? We have almost missed the fact applying formal math approach, and now we are getting to the research of behavior and habits - things that are the realm of astrology.

I looked at this picture once again:

You see all these conjunctions divide the price history data on the intervals, and each

You see all these conjunctions divide the price history data on the intervals, and each interval has its own character.

Between the years 1901 and 1921, Dow looks like a variation inside 50-100 points interval;

1921-1941 years - a roller-coaster, plus some new entity appears: multi-years trends;

1941-1961 years - one more entity appears: a relatively steady growth. Also WW2 took place in the beginning of this period.

You can easily continue this analysis for all other periods. So it might be that instead of the theory that Jupiter- Saturn cycle means the repetition of the price patterns we should consider the beginning of this cycle (which is the conjunction between Jupiter and Saturn) as the beginning of a new period of Dow Jones behavior.

My main point of this article is to distinguish between math based and astrological cycles. A cycle consists of the points that look similar In this particular case, the Jupiter-Saturn cycle works more as an astrological cycle, not a mathematical one. In other words, each conjunction defines the rules that the stock market will follow for the next 20 years. This is a "key" event that has effect for the next 20 years. In regards to this point, the methods of Natal and Financial Astrology are close to each other.

How to work with this cycle? The application of statistical methods (like Composite analysis) does not provide results here (though you may try). I would prefer the old classical approach analyzing charts of each conjunction separately. For a mathematician, all these charts must be treated as one and the same - thus the cycles theory works, To an astrologer, each chart is different. And if looking for analogies, the astrologer will find first the charts that are the most similar.

First of all we need to decide what chart type is better for this research. I believe that Heliocentric Zodiac suits this purpose better. Next question is: "What we need to research first?" (i.e. what factors must be considered first).

Classic astrology divides all astro factors by dignity in two groups: "essential" - mostly related with planetary positions (or absolute positions in space); "accidental" - houses, aspects and other factors that are based on planetary positions in respect to other bodies or locality). It is very interesting that I have got a proof of the importance of this old definition in my researches. Essential dignities are prior to accidentals.

So I consider first the sign where this conjunction is culminated. Maybe we better look for the analogies on the market for the conjunctions in the same sign. Let us look at the last conjunction that has occurred in the year 2000. It has culminated in Taurus. We have one more conjunction in the end of 1940 year that took place in 12th degree of Taurus. So, if we compare these two periods, we find more analogy there. In 40s, there was WW2; in 21st century, we have a global war against terrorism. See how DJI behaved in 40s:

a global war against terrorism. See how DJI behaved in 40s: The second half of this

The second half of this period looks very promising, and it gives us some hopes for the next 12 years.

Classical Natal astrology has the time proven hierarchy of essential factors. You are able to research them all, if you would like to. The more factors coincide for two compared periods, the stronger is the chance of price pattern repetition. I have found interesting that in the conjunction charts for these two periods (40s and 2000s) both planets, Jupiter and Saturn, are peregrins (i.e., weak ones, with no dignities).I have specially restricted myself to consider essential factors only. I do that because I believe that the methods of Natal astrology do not always work the same way for Financial astrology. To consider the accidental factors, we simply have not enough stock market history data to understand how these factors work for the stock market. Natal astrology applies them because it has a different subject (not the stock market movements) and thousands years of historical observations. The application of these rules to stock market forecasting is nothing more but the pure anthropocentrism.

Semi Automated Testing of Phenomenological Models

I would like to bring your attention to this new algorithm of finding the best phenomenological model. The general idea of this technique is simple: we apply suggested models to the financial instrument of our choice, and then analyze them. Previously, you could do it manually, for different models. You would have to choose the models, train Neural Nets, test them and then compare the results. Now, all you need to do is just choose your financial instrument and run the new Solution, "Phenomenological.ts", and wait while the program applies 27 previously created models to this instrument, trains and tests 27 Neural Nets, finds correlation coefficients for each model - and gives you final results as a table. It is a kind of simplified back testing for phenomenological models. We did it with the intention to help users who have no time or proper skills for

model's research.Then you may take the best model (or several best choices) and make a projection line for your financial instrument in a usual way. Now, we suggest 27 models. These are mostly phenomenological models. The list includes several Spectrum models as well; these Spectrum models have shown promising results for some financial instruments (see "Naked Truth" section on the website). We continue working with the new models and testing the old ones. It means that the list of suggested models will be changing in time. So, what do you need to do? Follow these steps:

Step 1: Download any financial instrument

Step 2: Set the TRAINING interval as big as possible. The bigger interval allows to avoid the random coincidence.

Step 3: Run the "Phenomenological.ts" Solution:

Step 3 : Run the "Phenomenological.ts" Solution: Below you will see three Case Studies. I applied

Below you will see three Case Studies. I applied this technology to Dow Jones Industrial Index and Corn and Gold data.

Dow Jones Industrial Index Case Study

Download Dow Jones Industrial index data. I took the data from 1885 up to 2006 (33.000 price bars). The LBC is set at the year 1963; thus we have more than 10.000 testing price bars:

Now, run the "Phenomenological.ts" Solution: You will get the table below: Financial Instrument: Dow_from_1885.csv

Now, run the "Phenomenological.ts" Solution:

Now, run the "Phenomenological.ts" Solution: You will get the table below: Financial Instrument: Dow_from_1885.csv

You will get the table below:

Financial Instrument: Dow_from_1885.csv Analyzed 27 models LBC Info: 22607 train/10586 test Target: Rel. Osc.(1,50,50 Close,Exp)

Model

Dynamic Model TI=500

Dynamic Model TI=750

Spectrum Model TI=1000

NN (first NN (first NN (last LIN (first LIN (first LIN (last 10801 pt) 5378
NN (first
NN (first
NN (last
LIN (first
LIN (first
LIN (last
10801 pt)
5378 pt)
5425 pt)
10801 pt)
5378 pt)
5425 pt)
14.89%
9.00%
21.53%
3.33%
-0.01%
7.43%
13.86%
9.60%
18.87%
4.59%
5.77%
4.10%
10.16%
7.44%
13.79%
7.36%
6.57%
7.61%

FAM Model Phase, Orb=10, TI=1000

FAM Model Phase, Orb=10, TI=2000

Dynamic Model TI=1000

FAM Model Phase, Orb=15, TI=1000

FAM Model Phase, Orb=15, TI=2000

FAM Model Geo, Orb=15, TI=2000

Terms/Faces Model TI=All

Dynamic Model TI=2000

FAM Model Phase, Orb=10, TI=All

Seasonal Orb=15,

TI=1000

FAM Model Geo, Orb=10, TI=2000

FAM Model Geo, Orb=10, TI=1000

Ptolemy Aspects Model

Orb=15

FAM Model Geo, Orb=15, TI=1000

FAM Model Phase, Orb=15, TI=All

Terms/Faces Model

TI=2000

Seasonal Orb=10,

TI=1000

FAM Model Geo, Orb=10, TI=All

FAM Model Geo, Orb=15, TI=All

Terms/Faces Model

TI=1000

Dynamic Model TI=All

Spectrum Model TI=300

Spectrum Model TI=50

Spectrum Model TI=500

7.66%

2.87%

12.27%

8.70%

2.14%

15.27%

7.39%

3.16%

11.48%

7.77%

2.10%

13.20%

6.83%

3.69%

10.78%

3.88%

2.78%

5.83%

6.68%

0.41%

12.83%

5.08%

-1.84%

12.13%

6.56%

-0.68%

13.19%

8.03%

1.37%

14.50%

6.36%

11.17%

0.84%

5.22%

12.17%

-2.40%

5.37%

0.99%

10.09%

4.91%

2.30%

7.72%

4.65%

3.78%

6.18%

-0.59%

1.06%

-2.08%

4.41%

3.56%

5.20%

4.36%

4.06%

4.64%

4.27%

2.84%

5.66%

0.13%

-0.39%

0.47%

4.11%

4.32%

4.71%

6.83%

10.38%

3.52%

4.01%

8.84%

-1.53%

7.36%

6.29%

8.57%

3.68%

0.65%

6.44%

-0.49%

-4.40%

3.36%

3.58%

7.63%

-0.56%

8.52%

6.93%

10.38%

2.43%

2.69%

1.94%

1.67%

1.35%

1.92%

2.26%

0.39%

3.37%

8.14%

1.70%

10.14%

2.16%

5.25%

-0.93%

-0.12%

-0.94%

0.51%

2.10%

4.59%

0.77%

5.86%

9.24%

4.74%

1.81%

-2.94%

7.94%

2.17%

5.40%

0.87%

1.12%

1.13%

2.26%

9.38%

8.22%

8.14%

0.11%

1.89%

-1.58%

2.39%

0.26%

4.72%

-0.93%

3.15%

-5.43%

-1.25%

6.45%

-8.92%

-3.40%

-0.35%

-6.61%

-0.91%

4.58%

-7.06%

-5.18%

-7.37%

-3.54%

-1.89%

-2.08%

-2.04%

It is a list of 27 models sorted in regards to correlation coefficients. (The correlation coefficient shows how well each projection line fits the real price within the testing interval.) Red numbers mean a positive correlation; blue numbers show a negative correlation.

As you see, the best model for DJI is "Dynamic Model TI=500"; this is Dynamic model with the training interval = 500 price bars.

You can easily create the Neural Net projection line for "Dynamic Model TI=500". Follow these steps:

for " Dynamic Model TI=500". Follow these steps: There define the Training Interval (TI)=500 price bars:

There define the Training Interval (TI)=500 price bars:

There define the Training Interval (TI)=500 price bars: Now you can see the length of training

Now you can see the length of training interval here:

bars: Now you can see the length of training interval here: You can try the same

You can try the same model with the training interval = 750 price bars as well, it gives very close results (see the next line in the table above):

Dynamic Model TI=750

13.86% 9.60% 18.87% 4.59% 5.77%
13.86%
9.60%
18.87%
4.59%
5.77%

One of Spectrum models proposed by Ben Price also looks well

Spectrum Model TI=1000

10.16% 7.44% 13.79% 7.36% 6.57%
10.16%
7.44%
13.79%
7.36%
6.57%

In other words, we can use some fixed cycles to forecast Dow Jones.

Next three best models are FAM Phase model and one more Dynamic model:

FAM Model Phase, Orb=10, TI=1000

FAM Model Phase, Orb=10, TI=2000

7.66% 2.87% 12.27% 8.70% 2.14% 15.27% 7.39% 3.16% 11.48% 7.77% 2.10% 13.20%
7.66%
2.87%
12.27%
8.70%
2.14%
15.27%
7.39%
3.16%
11.48%
7.77%
2.10%
13.20%

Dynamic Model TI=1000

6.83% 3.69% 10.78% 3.88% 2.78% 5.83%
6.83%
3.69%
10.78%
3.88%
2.78%
5.83%

I would like to add a few words on Phase models. Phase models are based on planetary phases, and very often they work together with Dynamic models.

The planetary phase means the degree of illumination of the planets by the Sun if we observe this planets from the Earth's surface. Also, with a good accuracy, we can consider the phase of the planet as a degree of gravitation of this planet. When the phase=0 degrees (for example New Venus = heliocentric Venus-Earth conjunction), the distance between Venus and the Earth is in its minimum, while its gravitation effect is maximum. When the phase=180 degrees (Full Venus = heliocentric Venus-Earth opposition), it means the maximum distance between Venus and the Earth and therefore the minimum gravitation effect.

Thus we can consider the Dow Jones index as phase/gravitation dependable market.

Corn Price Case Study

Financial Instrument: CORN prices

Analyzed 27 models LBC Info: 9351 train/5004 test Target: Rel. Osc.(1,50,50 Close,Exp)

Model

Terms/Faces Model

TI=1000

FAM Model Geo, Orb=10,

TI=1000

FAM Model Geo, Orb=15,

TI=2000

FAM Model Geo, Orb=15,

TI=1000

FAM Model Geo, Orb=10,

TI=2000

FAM Model Geo, Orb=15, TI=All

Terms/Faces Model

TI=2000

Seasonal Orb=15,

TI=1000

Seasonal Orb=10,

TI=1000

Terms/Faces Model TI=All

Dynamic Model TI=2000

Dynamic Model TI=1000

FAM Model Phase, Orb=10, TI=1000

FAM Model Phase, Orb=15, TI=1000

NN (first NN (first NN (last LIN (first LIN (first LIN (last 5218 pt) 2613
NN (first
NN (first
NN (last
LIN (first
LIN (first
LIN (last
5218 pt)
2613 pt)
2607 pt)
5218 pt)
2613 pt)
2607 pt)
31.01%
39.80%
18.36%
19.78%
32.93%
1.76%
29.62%
32.58%
23.97%
27.59%
32.80%
20.17%
28.55%
28.84%
27.09%
26.24%
26.58%
25.15%
28.12%
31.29%
21.90%
25.11%
30.42%
17.79%
27.30%
30.38%
22.41%
24.29%
24.62%
22.93%
22.38%
28.03%
16.05%
19.21%
22.16%
16.03%
20.53%
21.31%
19.93%
13.85%
15.51%
17.95%
17.65%
23.07%
11.05%
19.10%
24.41%
12.72%
17.57%
20.44%
14.09%
19.05%
23.90%
13.19%
16.94%
18.23%
17.83%
14.75%
17.09%
13.71%
15.94%
22.18%
9.38%
8.92%
12.60%
4.34%
12.80%
15.67%
7.99%
10.42%
9.79%
10.25%
12.25%
14.62%
8.04%
7.22%
7.46%
5.39%
9.13%
11.12%
4.72%
4.96%
5.10%
3.18%

FAM Model Geo, Orb=10, TI=All

Dynamic Model TI=500

Spectrum Model TI=300

FAM Model Phase, Orb=10, TI=2000

FAM Model Phase, Orb=15, TI=2000

Spectrum Model TI=1000

FAM Model Phase, Orb=10, TI=All

Dynamic Model TI=750

Spectrum Model TI=500

Spectrum Model TI=50

Ptolemy Aspects Model

Orb=15

FAM Model Phase, Orb=15, TI=All

Dynamic Model TI=All

9.06% 9.89% 8.58% 16.98% 20.73% 12.88% 5.81% 8.26% 2.76% -4.92% -9.13% 1.44% 3.93% 1.78% 7.24%
9.06%
9.89%
8.58%
16.98%
20.73%
12.88%
5.81%
8.26%
2.76%
-4.92%
-9.13%
1.44%
3.93%
1.78%
7.24%
3.35%
-1.36%
8.57%
3.11%
13.37%
-10.31%
1.08%
13.59%
-15.96%
0.82%
12.05%
-14.07%
1.38%
15.01%
-17.07%
0.82%
-2.44%
6.13%
3.55%
4.14%
3.08%
0.56%
4.02%
-4.14%
-6.43%
-0.98%
-15.10%
-0.49%
3.60%
-5.10%
-2.45%
-2.80%
-3.16%
-1.31%
-6.87%
6.15%
0.98%
1.70%
0.41%
-1.75%
5.71%
-9.84%
4.37%
6.39%
1.95%
-5.07%
-4.34%
-7.00%
-3.70%
-7.35%
-0.20%
-9.30%
-2.86%
-18.62%
-7.97%
-3.70%
-15.19%
-16.53%
-13.74%
-20.57%
-14.70%
-7.23%
-24.29%

These are the best models:

Model

Terms/Faces Model

TI=1000

FAM Model Geo, Orb=10, TI=1000

FAM Model Geo, Orb=15, TI=2000

FAM Model Geo, Orb=15, TI=1000

NN (first NN (first NN (last LIN (first LIN (first LIN (last 5218 pt) 2613
NN (first
NN (first
NN (last
LIN (first
LIN (first
LIN (last
5218 pt)
2613 pt)
2607 pt)
5218 pt)
2613 pt)
2607 pt)
31.01%
39.80%
18.36%
19.78%
32.93%
1.76%
29.62%
32.58%
23.97%
27.59%
32.80%
20.17%
28.55%
28.84%
27.09%
26.24%
26.58%
25.15%
28.12%
31.29%
21.90%
25.11%
30.42%
17.79%

Terms/Faces Model TI=1000: this is the newest model; it will be available in the Advanced version of Timing Solution. It is pure astrological model based on old techniques.

FAM Model Geo, Orb=10, TI=1000: this model is based on geocentric planetary positions. It looks like for this market the planetary position in Zodiac is important. You can easily calculate the Neural Net projection line this way:

Set training interval to 1000 price bars. The phase and Dynamic models look good as

Set training interval to 1000 price bars.