Running head: HINDSIGHT BIAS 1

Hindsight Bias: Humanitys Self-Confidence Error

Fiamma Sierra

Florida International University

HINDSIGHT BIAS 2

Method

Participants

Sixty three students from Florida International University participated in the experimental

study. Twenty-five participants were male (39.7%), and 35 were female (55.5%). They ranged in

age from 0 to 32, with a mean age of 21.19 (SD=5.54). This included 9 Caucasian participants

(14.3%), 44 Hispanic American participants (68.9%), 1 Native Indian participant (1.6%), 5

Africa American participants (7.9%), and 2 Asian Americans participants (3.2%). The remaining

2 participants did not report their ethnicity (3.2%).

Materials and Procedure

In order to test for hindsight bias, students in research methods gathered information

based on surveys. There were two phases to this study. In the first phase, participants were orally

asked if they were willing to participate in a research study. In the second phase, participants

read a short scenario involving a new gosling (baby goose) and answer questions about that

study, and were provide demographic information about themselves. They received one of three

versions of this survey: Foresight condition (F), Hindsight-Outcome A condition (H-A), and

Hindsight-Outcome B condition (H-B). On the bottom of each survey was either an F, H-A,

or H-B. In one version (the Foresight condition, or F), they will read a study involving a

newly hatched gosling (baby goose) whose egg had been put in a box surrounded by the sound of

duck quacks. In this foresight condition, the researchers have yet to run the study, so the possible

outcomes involve the newly hatched gosling approaching an adult goose or approaching an adult

duck. The participants in this condition will then complete four short Likert-type questions

asking them about 1) their surprise if the gosling approached the goose, 2) the likelihood of

researchers replicating a result in which the gosling approached the goose, 3) the likelihood of
HINDSIGHT BIAS 3

researchers replicating a result in which the gosling approached the duck, and 4) a question

involving the nurture/nature debate. This is our control condition, as the participants will not

know the study outcome. In the second version (the Hindsight-Outcome A condition, or H

A), they will read about a similar study involving a gosling exposed to duck quacks while in its

egg. However, in this version, the researchers have already run the study and found that, once

hatched, the gosling approached the caged goose. The participants in this condition will complete

similar questions asking them about 1) their surprise that the gosling approached the caged

goose, 2) the likelihood of researchers replicating this same result, 3) the likelihood of

researchers replicating a result in which the gosling approached the caged duck, and 4) a

question involving the nurture / nature debate. This is our first experimental condition. I suspect

participants will not be surprised by the research outcome. In the final version (the Hindsight-

Outcome B condition, or HB), they will read about a similar study involving a gosling

exposed to duck quacks while in its egg. Like the Outcome A condition, in this version the

researchers have already run the study, BUT here they found that the gosling approached the

caged duck. The participants in this condition will complete questions asking them about 1) their

surprise that gosling approached the caged duck, 2) the likelihood of researchers replicating this

same result, 3) the likelihood of researchers replicating a result in which the gosling approached

the goose, and 4) a question involving the nurture / nature debate. This is our second

experimental condition. As in condition HA, I suspect participants will not be surprised by the

research outcome.