Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Technical Notes
~ = random variable.
X
X~ = Y~ ) X~ and Y~ are equivalent.
X~ =0 ) X ~ is identically equal to zero.
~ = expectation conditional on information available at year t, t = 0; 1; 2; ::: .
Et [X]
~ = Eu [X]
Law of Iterated Expectations: Eu [Et [X]] ~ for any u < t.
1
Assumption 2. Arbitrage-free. Agent cannot make trades that yield strictly positive
cash ows with certainty.
Assumption 4. Constant forecasts. For all t > 0 and all u < t, the year u forecast
of r~At does not vary with u:
Eu [~
rAt ] = E0 [~
rAt ] = rAt :
Assumption 5. Flat yield curve. For any given asset, expected returns are constant
over time:
rAt = rA ; t = 1; 2; 3; :::
Valuation Theorem. a. Suppose the capital market is perfectly competitive and arbitrage-
free. Then there exist random variables m ~ SS+t , t = 1; :::; T S, S = 0; 1; :::; T 1, called
stochastic discount factors (SDFs), such that the current market value of an asset is deter-
mined by
XT
VA0 = E0 [m~ 0t C~At ];
t=1
and the future market values are determined by
XT S
V~AS = ~ SS+t C~A;S+t ]; S > 0:
E0 [m
t=1
~ St are unique.1
b. If the market is also complete, then the random variables m
E0 [C~AS ]
VA0 = :
(1 + rA )S
Proof. Since C~A;S+t = 0 for all t > 0, the Valuation Theorem implies
XT S
V~AS = ~ SS+t 0] = 0:
ES [m
t=1
1
For a proof, see Asset Pricing by John H. Cochrane.
2
Rearrange:
V~A;S 1 (1 + r~AS ) = C~AS :
Now take conditional expectation at year S 1 of both sides of the equation:
h i h i
~ ~
ES 1 VA;S 1 (1 + r~AS ) = ES 1 CAS :
= V~A;S 1 (1 + ES 1 [~
rAS ]) = V~A;S 1 (1 + rAS ) ;
where the last equality uses Assumption 4. Thus,
h i
V~A;S 1 (1 + rAS ) = ES 1 C~AS : (1)
Rearrange:
V~A;S 2 (1 + r~A;S 1) = V~A;S 1: (2)
Combining equations (1) and (2) gives
h i
V~A;S 2 (1 + r
~A;S 1 ) (1 + rAS ) = ES 1 C~AS :
Since V~A;S 2 and rAS are known at year S 2, they may be treated as constants,
and the left-hand side of the preceding equation may be written as
h i
ES 2 V~A;S 2 (1 + r~A;S 1 ) (1 + rAS )
= V~A;S 2 (1 + rAS ) (1 + ES 2 [~
rA;S 1 ])
= V~A;S 2 (1 + rAS ) (1 + rA;S 1 );
3
where the the last equality uses Assumption 4. Thus,
h i
V~A;S 2 (1 + rAS ) (1 + rA;S 1 ) = ES 2 C~AS :
so we may write h i
VA0 (1 + rA )S = E0 C~At ;
Proposition 2.2. The current market value of the portfolio consisting of Assets 1; :::; J is
given by
XJ j
VA0 = VA0 :
j=1
P j
Proof. Since C~At = Jj=1 C~At , we have, using the Valuation Theorem:
XT h i XT XJ j
VA0 = E0 m~ 0t C~At = ~ 0t
E0 m C~At
t=1 t=1 j=1
XT XJ XT XJ h i
j j
= E0 ~ 0t C~At
m = E0 m~ 0t C~At
t=1 j=1 t=1 j=1
XJ XT h i XJ
j j
= ~ 0t C~At
E0 m = VA0 :
j=1 t=1 j=1
Proposition 2.3. The OCC of the portfolio consisting of Assets 1; :::; J is given by
XJ j
VA0
rA = rj :
j=1 VA0 A
4
Proof. The Valuation Theorem implies
XT 1 h i
V~A1 = E1 m~ 11+t C~A;t+1 ;
t=1
where the random variables m ~ 1t+1 , t = 1; 2; :::, are the SDFs for valuing assets
at year 1. Thus, for the portfolio consisting of Assets 1; :::; J, we may apply the
argument of Prop. 2.2 to obtain
XJ j
V~A1 = V~A1 :
j=1
Thus,
XJ j
VA0
rA = rj :
j=1 VA0 A
Proposition 2.4. The current market value of the cash ow stream C~A1 ; C~A2 ; ::: is given
by
X1 CAt
VA0 = :
t=1 (1 + rA )t
5
Proof. First consider the nite cash ow stream C~A1 ; C~A2 ; :::; C~AT . The future
cash ows may be viewed as a portfolio consisting of T separate assets, with each
asset generating the single cash ow C~At . Prop. 2.1 shows that the value of C~At
considered as a separate asset is given by
CAt
:
(1 + rA )t
Thus, Prop. 2.2 implies
XT CAt
VA0 = :
t=1 (1 + rA )t
For an innite cash ow stream, we have
XT CAt X1 CAt
VA0 = lim = ;
T !1 t=1 (1 + rA )t t=1 (1 + rA )t
Corollary 2.1. The market value of C~A;S+1 ; C~A;S+2 ; ::: at year S > 0 is given by
h i
X1 ES C~A;S+t
V~AS = :
t=1 (1 + rA )t
Proof. First consider a single cash ow C~A;S+t received at year S + t > S. The
arguments from the proof of Prop. 2.1 may be used to obtain, for u < S + t,
or h i
ES C~A;S+t
V~AS = :
(1 + rA )t
Next, for T > S, the market value at year S of the cash ow stream
C~A;S+1 ; C~A;S+2 ; :::C~A;T is given by
XT S h i
V~AS = ES m~ SS+t C~A;S+t ;
t=1
6
~ SS+t , t = 1; 2; :::, are the SDFs for valuing assets at
where the random variables m
year S. Applying the arguments from the proof of Prop. 2.4 gives
h i
XT S ES C~A;S+t
V~AS = ;
t=1 (1 + rA )t
and the result follows by letting T ! 1, provided the limit exists.
7
h h ii
X1 E0 ES C~A;S+t X1 CA;S+t
= := :
t=1 (1 + rA )t t=1 (1 + rA )t
Combining equations (3) and (4) gives the result.
Next, suppose the Valuation Formula converges. This means that, for any
" > 0, there exists S such that S > S implies
X1 CAt
< ":
t=S+1 (1 + rA )t
Using Cor. 2.1 (with the index of summation changed to u), we have
2 h i3
h i X1 ES C~A;S+u X1 CA;S+u
VAS = E0 V~AS = E0 4 5= :
u=1 (1 + rA )u u=1 (1 + rA )u
Substitute to obtain
X1 CAt VAS
= :
t=S+1 (1 + rA )t (1 + rA )S
It follows that for every " > 0, there exists S such that S > S implies
X1 CAt VAS
t
= < ";
t=S+1 (1 + rA ) (1 + rA )S
which means
VAS
lim = 0:
S!1 (1 + rA )S
Proposition 2.5. If the cash ow stream C~A1 ; C~A2 ; ::: is delayed by S years, then its
current market value is given by
1
V^A0 = VA0 :
(1 + rA )S
8
Proof. Given the delay, the asset generates zero cash at years t = 1; 2; :::; S 1,
and the cash ows C~A1 ; C~A2 ; ::: are received at years t = S + 1; S + 2; :::. Thus,
the Valuation Formula gives
XS 0 X1 CA;t S
V^A0 = +
t=1 (1 + rA )t t=S+1 (1 + rA )t
X1 CA;t S
= :
t=S+1 (1 + rA )t
Dene u = t S, so that t = S + u, and the years t = S + 1; S + 2; ::: correspond
to years u = 1; 2; :::. Substitute for t and rearrange to obtain:
X1 CAu
V^A0 =
u=1 (1 + rA )S+u
1 X1 CAu 1
= S u
= VA0 :
(1 + rA ) u=1 (1 + rA ) (1 + rA )S
B rA g B rA g 1
= =
1 + rA rA g rA g 1 + r A 1 + rA
B 1 + rA 1 g B 1+g
= = 1 :
rA g 1 + rA rA g 1 + rA
Now x T > 1 and suppose the result holds for 1; 2; :::; T 1. Again using Prop.
2.4, we have
XT B(1 + g)t 1 X1 0
VA0 = t
+
t=1 (1 + rA ) t=T +1 (1 + rA )t
9
" #
T 1
B 1+g B(1 + g)T 1 rA g
= 1 +
rA g 1 + rA (1 + rA )T rA g
Proposition 2.7. If g < rA , then the current market value of a Growing Annuity satisties
B
lim VA0 = :
T !1 rA g
Proof. Dene the constant by
1+g
= :
1 + rA
Then 1 < g < rA implies 0 < < 1, so that limT !1 T = 0. Moreover, the
Growing Annuity Formula may be written as
B T
VA0 = 1 :
rA g
Since this is a continuous function of T, we have
B T B
lim VA0 = 1 lim = :
T !1 rA g T !1 rA g
10
B XT B XT 1
t 1 u
= = ;
(1 + rA ) t=1 (1 + rA ) u=0
where the substitution u = t 1 has been made. Since 0 < < 1, the Geometric
Series Theorem yields
XT 1 1
u
lim = :
T !1 u=0 1
Thus,
B 1
lim VA0 =
T !1 (1 + rA ) 1
B 1 B
= 1+g = :
(1 + rA ) 1 1+rA
rA g
Proposition 2.8. Suppose CB1 ; CB2 ; ::: and I0 satisfy IRR Regularity Conditions 1 and
2. Then the IRR exists uniquely, and the IRR Rule is equivalent to the NPV Rule.
It follows that rIRR satises the IRR Equation if and only if NB (rIRR ) = 0, i.e.,
NB intersects the r-axis at rIRR .
Using Condition 1, we have
X1
NB (0) = CBt I0 > 0;
t=1
Thus NB (r) must cross the r-axis at least once for r > 0. Since NB (r) is a
continuous function, it must intersect the r-axis, which means NB (r) = 0 for
some r > 0. Conclude that an IRR exists. Moreover, Condition 2 implies that
NB (r) is strictly decreasing in r, so it cannot intersect the r-axis more than one
point. Conclude that the IRR is unique.
Next, using Condition 2, we have that rIRR > rB holds if and only if 0 =
NB (rIRR ) < NB (rB ) = NPV, whereas rIRR < rB holds if and only if 0 =
NB (rIRR ) > NB (rB ) = NPV. This proves that the IRR and NPV Rules are
equivalent.
Lemma 4.1. For any l and S, the market value at year S of type l bonds issued at years
S + 1; S + 2; ::: is zero.
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Proof. Let F~ l (S + u; T ) be the face value of type l bonds of maturity T issued
~ l (S + u; T ) be the market value of these bonds at year
at year S + u, and let D S+u
S +u. Net payments to holders of these bonds at years S +u; S +u+1; S +u+2:::
are as follows:
8
> ~ l (S + u; T );
D t = 0;
>
< S+u
l ~ l
rC F (S + u; T ); t = 1; :::; T 1;
C~D;S+u+t
l
(S +u; T ) = ~ l (S + u; T ) + F~ l (S + u; T );
l F
>
> r t = T;
: C
0; t = T + 1; T + 2; ::: :
Corollary 2.1 implies that the market value of the bonds at year S + u is
h i
X1 ES+u C~D;S+u+t
l (S + u; T )
~ l (S + u; T ) =
D :
S+u l )t
t=1 (1 + rD
1
= l )u
[ 0 ] = 0:
(1 + rD
It follows that the market value at year S of type l bonds issued in all future
years at all maturities is given by
X1 X1
D~ l (S + u; T ) = 0:
u=1 T =1 S
~ l = F~ l for all S.
l = r l , then D
Proposition 4.1. If type l debt satises rC D S S
Proof. Fix T > 0, and let F~Sl (T ) denote the face value of type l bonds
outstanding at year S that mature at year S + T . Net payments to holders of
these bonds at years S + 1; S + 2; ::: are as follows:
8
< rC ~ l (T );
l F t = 1; :::; T 1;
S
~ l
CD;S+t (T ) = l ~ l ~ l
r F (T ) + FS (T ); t = T;
: C S
0; t = T + 1; T + 2; ::: :
12
Corollary 2.1 implies that the market value of the bonds at year S is
h i
X1 ES C~D;S+t
l (T ) XT rl F~ l (T ) F~Sl (T )
D~ Sl (T ) = = C S
+
t=1 l )t
(1 + rD t=1 (1 + r l )t (1 + rD l )T
D
~ l (T )
l F
rC 1 F~Sl (T )
S
= l
1 l )T
+ l )T
:
rD (1 + rD (1 + rD
l = r l , we have
Since rC D
~ Sl (T ) = F~Sl (T ) 1 1 F~Sl (T )
D l )T
+ l T
= F~Sl (T ):
(1 + rD (1 + rD )
Moreover, Lemma 4.1 shows that the market value at year S of type l bonds of
all maturities issued at years S + 1; S + 2; ::: is zero. Thus,
X1 X1
D~ Sl = ~ Sl (T ) =
D F~Sl (T ) = F~Sl :
T =1 T =1
Proposition 4.2. If type l debt satises rCl = r l and F l = F l (1 + g l )t for all t > 0, then
D t 0
the value of ITS is given by
l Dl
rD
l 0
V0;IT S = l
:
rD gl
X1 rCl Fl
t 1
X1 rl Dl (1 + g l )t 1 l Dl
rD
l D 0 0
VIT S;0 = l )t
= l )t
= l
:
t=1 (1 + rD t=1 (1 + rD rD gl
13
Thus,
XL XL XL
l
VIT S;0 = VIT S;0 = D0l = D0l = D0 ;
l=1 l=1 l=1
XL l
VIT S;0
XL D0l XL D0l l
l l
rIT S = rD = rD = r = rD :
l=1 VIT S;0 l=1 D0 l=1 D0 D
Corollary 4.1. Under the conditions of Proposition 4.3, expected net payouts to debtholders
for all t > 0 are given by
CDt = Intt = rD D0 :
C~Dt
l glt + F~M
= Int l
t
~N
D l l ~l ~l
t = r C Ft + FM t
~N
D l
t:
l = r l , we have F
Since rC ~l = D ~ l . Substituting for D ~ l and taking expectation
D Nt Nt Nt
gives
l l
CDt = rC Ftl + FM
l
t FNl t = rC
l
Ftl = rC
l
F0l = rC
l
D0l :
Expected net payouts to all debtholders are obtained as follows:
XL XL D0 XL l D0l
l l
CDt = CDt = rD D0l = r D0 = rD D0 :
l=1 l=1 D0 l=1 D D0
Proposition 5.1. The Value of Equity equals the value of the net payout stream:
E0 = E0N P :
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Proof. Since each share has a cash value of Divg 1 + P~1 at year 1, the portfolio
g 1 + P~1 )K0 at year 1.
of all currently outstanding shares has a cash value of (Div
Moreover, the denition of C~E1 may be rearranged to obtain
g 1 + P~1 )K0 = C~E1 + P~1 K
(Div ~ 1;
so that the cash value of the portfolio of shares at year 1 equals C~E1 + P~1 K
~ 1.
Thus, the Value of Equity must satisfy
CE1 P1 K 1
E0 = N P
+ 1 ; (5)
1 + rE 1 + rE
where rE N P is the OCC of the net payout stream, and r 1 is the OCC of P ~1 K
~ 1.
E
g 2 + P~2 at year 2, the portfolio
Next, since each share has a cash value of Div
g 2 + P~2 )K
of all shares outstanding at year 1 has a cash value of (Div ~ 1 at year 2.
~
Moreover, the denition of CE2 may be rearranged to obtain
g 2 + P~2 )K
(Div ~ 1 = C~E2 + P~2 K
~ 2:
Since P~1 K
~ 1 is the market value of the portfolio at year 1, it follows that the
current market value of P~1 K
~ 1 must satisfy
P1 K1 CE2 P2 K 2
1 = N P 2
+ 2 )2 ;
1 + rE (1 + rE ) (1 + rE
~2 K
2 is the OCC of P
where rE ~ 2 . Substituting into equation (5) gives
CE1 CE2 P2 K 2
E0 = N P
+ N P 2
+ 2 )2 :
1 + rE (1 + rE ) (1 + rE
Proposition 5.2. The Return on Equity equals the OCC of the net payout stream:
NP
rE = rE :
15
Thus, using Prop. 5.1, we may write
g 1 + P~1
Div P0 g 1 + P~1 )K0
(Div P0 K0
r~E = =
P0 P0 K 0
C~E1 + E
~1 E0 C~E1 + E
~NP
1 E0N P NP
= = = r~E :
E0 E0AC
Taking expectation at year 0 gives the result.
16