With the rise of China over the last several decades, the United States

has become increasingly aware and fearful of the rising Asian giant. In

response, many, across all political spectrums, have called for a decisive

reaction to the changing landscape in the Asian Pacific. Yet exactly what to

do remains a debate among many who stand conflicted on how to interpret

Chinas rise. Is the proper strategic move to extend a hand to this status quo

country, as to share world responsibilities, maintain global peace, and

increase universal prosperity? Or must America flex its muscles to quickly

and decisively put down the aggressive revisionist tiger while its still young?

At the heart of such a debate remains the question of What are Chinas

intentions? Indeed, knowing Chinas intentions would solve the dilemma

and would insure a deliberate and appropriate response.

In search of an actionable answer to these critical questions, it may be

tempting to label Chinas intentions as simply benign or malign. The

frustrating truth however is that Chinas intentions lie neither on the good

nor bad extreme but instead remain in between. Understandably, this

answer may sound like another exasperating response with little practical

significance, as it clearly endorses neither diplomatic cooperation nor

military action. However, a deeper analysis shows the insight and value in

understanding Chinas intentions not simply as black or white but as grey.

Navarro floats the idea in Episode 1 that China itself may not even

know its intentions, as the rising Asian power balances nationalistic pride,

economic growth, and increasing responsibilities. Indeed, as Gunness and

Mastro point out, at times the Peoples Liberation Army seems to shift

courses between protecting Chinas interests and threatening Western

influence, further underscoring the notion that China doesnt exactly know

what it wants. This assertion of an uncertain China, if true, poses a difficult

question: if China doesnt even know its objectives, how is the rest of the

world supposed to judge such intentions? The truth is that there is no

educated way to know whether Chinas intentions are good or bad as the

answer could very well be different tomorrow. Perhaps then, it is best to

launch a pre-emptive campaign against China, as a sort of just in case

defense mechanism, especially while Western military capabilities, even in

light of Chinas asymmetrical warfare strategies, still remain superior.

However, before sounding the general alarm and hastily reacting to

China in this manner, it proves essential to consider a crucial premise that

the reasoning above assumes: the supposition that Chinas intentions are the

initiating factor and the rest of the world, led by the United States, act as

dependent variables. This assumption implies that the ball lies in Chinas

hands and the world simply reacts to Chinas ambitions. But considering the

reversal, what if the fact that China doesnt know its own objectives actually

puts the ball in the Unites States hands? What if Chinas intentions

continually change simply because the country is adapting to an ever-

changing political atmosphere? What if Chinas fluid intentions are actually

the dependent variable and the Western world and its actions are actually
the initiating factor? In such a case, Chinas intentions are indeed unknown

but they lie well within the control of the West.

If this reversed situation holds, then the appropriate action for the

United States is not to pre-emptively strike China as at best, this action will

destabilize the Asian Pacific and at worst, this action will incite a retaliatory

strike that may escalate into nuclear war. Instead, under these

circumstances, the United States must significantly warm relations with

China, building a relationship of mutual respect, trust, and cooperation, in

turn ensuring that China remains a status quo power. Perhaps this means

considering Chinas century of humiliation and recognizing that Chinas

land claims in surrounding seas touches upon sensitive sovereignty issue.

Perhaps this means acknowledging Chinas dependence on maritime trade

and understanding that American naval presence in the region poses large

economic contingencies for China. Perhaps this means giving up one foot on

the yardstick and reaching an agreement through crafty negotiations and

diplomatic procedures. Maybe by reaching out to and working with China, the

United States and its allies can encourage a benign China rather than

provoke a malign one.

Critics of such a strategy will undoubtedly remain uneasy, pointing out

that such an appeasement strategy has already failed before. Yet a

significant difference must be recognized between the circumstances of the

1930-40s and those of modern times. In the aftermath of World War I,

Western countries practiced appeasement with Nazi Germany largely due to

poor domestic conditions and a lack of real power. Today however, even as

the United States has at times stumbled, both domestically with the financial

crisis of 2008, and internationally, with extended involvement in the Middle

East, American power remains superior to that of China, with experts

recognizing that China is still playing the catch-up game. The key contrast

here is that the Western world today comes from a position of strength, not

weakness, a key cornerstone that if properly leveraged, will prevent another

strategical failure.

At the end of the day, Chinas intentions remain a mystery and this

unknown has indeed created a dilemma for the United States and its allies.

On one hand, assuming China to be a benign status quo power proves to

be a somewhat nave move yet on the other hand, speculating China to be a

malign revisionist power demonstrates a slightly excessive alarmist

response. However, perhaps the key to solving this situation is not correctly

estimating Chinas true intentions but instead recognizing that such

intentions actually depend on what America and the rest of the world does.

In the larger picture, perhaps what matters isnt so much what Chinas

objectives right now are but instead, what Western powers do to keep China

focused on a peaceful rise.