1

Market Pulse
April 2017
 Survey Methodology
Monthly online survey of more than 300 California
REALTORS.
The survey was sent via email to a random sample of 10,000
REALTORS throughout California. The sample represented
the geographical distribution of C.A.R. membership across
the state.
Respondents are asked about their last closed transaction
and business activity in their market area for the previous
month.
 3

Market Conditions
 Floor Calls Begin to Pick Up for Fourth Month
Index (>50 is positive)

80
70 65 64 66
60
50
Index

40
30
20
10
0

Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Listing Appointments/Client Presentations Down YTY
But Climbing
Index (>50 is positive)
80

70 65 65
67
60

50
Index

40

30

20

10

Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in your market area this month was

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Open House Traffic Up Year Over Year

90
Index (>50 is positive)
79
80

70 72 73

60

50
Index

40

30

20

10

Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 All Cash Purchases Flat from Last Year
Index (>50 is positive)
70
59
60 55 55

50

40
Index

30

20

10

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Biggest Concern is Lack of Inventory
Lack of Inventory 48%

Decline in housing affordability 13%

Inflated home prices 13%

Rising interest rates 6.5%

Housing bubble 6.5%

Lending & financing 2.2%

Policy & regulations 2.2%

Slow down in economic growth 1.4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Concerns About Inventory Escalates, Highest
Level Since Inception
Inventory Affordability
60%

48%
50%

40%
33% 37%

30%

18%
20%

10% 16%
13%

0%

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Affordability and Prices are the Biggest
Concerns for REALTORS
Prices (Affordability, Prices, Bubble) Inventory

60%

50%
48%
38% 37%
40%

30% 36% 32%

33%
20%

10%

0%

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Expectations Dip Slightly From a Year Ago
Index (>50 is positive)
90
80
70 64
61 59
60
50
Index

40
30
20
10
0

Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 12

Last Transaction
 More Properties Selling Below Asking Price
from a Year Ago
Below At Over

100%
90% 39%
32%
80% 31%
70%
60%
28% 31%
50%
29%
40%
30%
38%
20% 40%
10% 32%

0%

Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Fewer Properties Selling Below Asking
Price from a Year Ago
Net % of Properties Selling Below/Above Asking Price

10% 7%

0%
-7%
-10%
-8%

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Premium Paid Remain Flat From a Year Ago
Average

14.0%

12.0%
10%
10.0% 9.6% 9.2%

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Percentage Paid Below Asking Price Decreases

0%

-5%

-8.0%
-10%

-12%
-15%

-17%
-20%

-25%
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Multiple Offers Decreases from a Year Ago
80% 74%
69% 68%
70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Number of Offers Increases from Last Year
4.0 Average

3.5 3.3
3.2
3.0 2.9

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Multiple Offers Descreasing
Apr-16 Apr-17

35% 31%
30%
30%
25% 24%
25%
21%
18%
20%

15% 12%
9.0% 8.1% 9.0%
10% 6.0%
4.8%
5%

0%
1 2 3 4 5 6+
Number of Offers
Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Proportion of 3+ Offers Decreases Slightly
80%

70%

60%

50% 45% 45%

40% 44%
30%

20%

10%

0%

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 3+ Offers Decrease in Most Price Ranges
Apr-16 Apr-17
Percentage of Properties Receiving 3+

70% 63%
61%
57%
60% 52% 53%
48% 50%
50% 41% 39%
39% 38%
40% 35%
31%
Offers

27% 27%
30% 24%
20%

10%

0%

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Listing Price Reductions Increase as Home Prices
Reach Near Peak
35%

30%
26%
25% 23%

20% 19%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Proportion of Buyers Who Were Renters Decreases YTY
60%

50%
44%

40% 38%39%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Fewer Sellers Are Becoming Renters
25%

20%
18%
16%
15%
12%

10%

5%

0%

Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Share of First-time Buyers Decreases
45% % First-time Buyers Long Run Average
40%

35%
32%
30% 32%
25% 28%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Majority Purchases are Primary Residences
Primary residence Investment Vacation home Other
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Q: What was the intended/actual use of the property?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Share of Vacation Properties Almost
Doubles
Investment Vacation home
30%

25%

20%
3.8% 3.9%
15% 6.2%

10%
16% 15%

5% 12%

0%

Q: What was the intended/actual use of the property?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Proportion of International Buyers Decreases YTY

% International Buyers Long Run Average (6.3%)

12%

10%

8%

6% 5.3%
6.6%
4%
4.1%
2%

0%

Q: Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 What are REALTORS Saying?

Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to share with us--such
as information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, or other topics?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 What are REALTORS Saying?
I feel there is an uncertainty among buyers today as the
interest rates move up and the lack of inventory continues.

Inventory continues to be the topic of discussion, which then

leads to unrealistic values that somehow become a reality.

Prices are inflated, which leads me to believe we may be

heading to another bubble.

I think this market reminds me of 2007-2008. 2007 things

seemed to slow but clients kept paying big prices.

Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to share with us--such as
information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, or other topics?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey