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Overview of

NATOs Adaptation 2014-2017


Overview of
NATOs Adaptation 2014-2017
Note to reader:

This is a declassified version for public use of the Report provided to Ministers of Defence and Foreign Affairs
in February and March 2017.
Table of contents
Foreword ...........................................................................................................................................................5
1. NATOs Adaptation .....................................................................................................................................8
1.1 The Alliances strengthened deterrence and defence posture ........................................................8
1.2 Projecting stability beyond the Alliances boundaries......................................................................9
2. Reforming and resourcing NATO..............................................................................................................11
2.1 Allied defence expenditure trends, 2009-2016 ..............................................................................11
2.2 Capabilities ....................................................................................................................................12
2.3 The NATO Organisation and Command Structure ........................................................................13

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Foreword

The NATO Alliance now faces security challenges decisions to strengthen the Alliances deterrence
that are more complex and demanding than at any and defence posture and to project stability beyond
time since the end of the Cold War. its borders. Allies also adopted the Defence
Investment Pledge, with a commitment to increase
Russia has shown that it is prepared to use military defence spending to 2% of Gross Domestic Product
force to further its political aims. It illegally annexed (GDP). Every Ally must take its fair share of the
Crimea, and has ongoing military operations in burden of our security.
eastern Ukraine and Syria. The modernisation and
expansion of Russias military, as well as its This report gives an overview of the progress we
aggressive use of cyber, propaganda and have made to date. It serves as a baseline for taking
disinformation, are a cause for serious concern. stock of our efforts, and it aims to facilitate a
discussion on the future direction of the Alliance.
Terrorist groups such as ISIL, al-Qaeda and Boko
Haram may have been weakened militarily, but
indiscriminate terrorist attacks remain a serious Over the past two years, we have implemented the
threat. NATO plays an important part in the fight greatest increase in our collective defence since the
against terrorism and has the potential to do more. Cold War. We are working more closely with our
partners in the Middle East and elsewhere. We are
There are also global challenges, such as the increasing defence spending after many years of
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and cuts. We have achieved a great deal, but there is
ballistic missile technology. much more to do.

NATO has responded by adapting to meet these This is a pivotal time for NATO. The challenges are
challenges. At the Wales and Warsaw Summits, great. But the unity and strength of the NATO
NATO leaders took action. They made landmark Alliance are greater.

Jens Stoltenberg
NATO Secretary General

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Iceland Peacetime (Air) Preparedness Mission

NATO Europe-wide Air Policing


Ukraine
Enhanced NATO Response Force (eNRF) / Very Comprehensive Assistance Package to help
High-Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF Ukraine reform its security sector

Republic of Moldova
Defence Capacity-Building package to
Standing Naval Forces Baltic Air Policing strengthen Republic of Moldovas sovereignty
Allies and resilience

NATO partners Joint Intelligence, Surveillance NATO Headquarters, Sarajevo


and Reconnaissance 70 civilian and military personnel supporting
Forward Presence Bosnia and Herzegovina in Defence and
Deterrence and Defence Security Sector Reform

Projecting Stability
Western Balkans
A range of Defence and Security Sector
Ballistic Missile Defence (MD) Reform activities across the region

KFOR
approximately Georgia
4,500 troops NATO Support and Substantial NATO-Georgia package to
Assurance to Turkey strengthen Georgias sovereignty and
resilience
Operation Sea Guardian NATO support to Counter-ISIL Coalition
Tunisia
Interoperability; Counter-Terrorism training; Aegean Sea activity Afghanistan
Counter-Improvised Explosive Device (C-IED); Resolute Support Mission (RSM) with
Defence Education; Chemical, Biological, approximately 13,000 troops. RSM involves
Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) Defence training, advice and assistance to the Afghan
National Security Forces and other security bodies

Morocco
Interoperability; Counter-Terrorism training;
Cyber Defence training; CBRN Defence Iraq
Training and advisory support for Ministry of
Interior (MOI) and Ministry of Defence (MOD),
Counter-Terrorism training, C-IED
Mauritania
Establishment of a National Crisis Management
Centre. Support for the destruction of Man- Jordan
Portable Air-Defence Systems (MANPADS) Defence Capacity-Building package
Egypt
focused on building interoperability and
Land mine detection and clearance;
resilience of Jordan and its armed forces
Counter-Terrorism training
Algeria
Counter-Terrorism training; Crisis
Management; Cyber Defence training NATO Support to the African Union (AU) NATO-Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI) Regional Centre (Kuwait)
Airlift support to AU peace-keeping Supports practical cooperation with Gulf countries and interaction with
contingents; NATO planning support the Gulf Cooperation Council

Figure 1 Wide spectrum of NATOs tasks, activities, missions and operations

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1. NATOs Adaptation

1.1 The Alliances strengthened deterrence and defence posture


Since 2014, NATO has conducted the biggest TAPA

reinforcement of its collective defence since the end 2018


ESTONIA

of the Cold War. This includes an increased forward ADAZI


Enhanced
Forward
presence in the eastern part of the Alliance LATVIA
Presence
combined with a rapid reinforcement capability, a LITHUANIA 4 multinational
battlegroups in
RUKLA
framework for meeting the challenges from the 2018
Estonia, Latvia,
Lithuania and
South, and support and assurance for Turkey. We ORZYSZ Poland
are strengthening our nuclear deterrence and cyber
defences, as well as improving Allies resilience.
NATO has also created a new Joint Intelligence and POLAND

Security Division to improve our situational Tailored


Forward
awareness. Figure 1 on pages 6 and 7 shows the Presence
wide spectrum of NATOs tasks, activities, missions SLOVAKIA
in Bulgaria,
Romania and
and operations. Black Sea,
including
HUNGARY
headquarters
Forward presence and reinforcement ROMANIA
of a
multinational
division and
The following key measures have been brigade
implemented or initiated:
BULGARIA
NFIU Headquarters
(i) Forward Presence. Four battlegroups in the
BULGARIA
Baltic States and in Poland, as well as a Tailored Figure 2 Geographical footprint of NATOs Forward Presence
Forward Presence in Bulgaria, Romania and the
Black Sea (see Figure 2 on the right). (iv) Follow-on Forces. Work has started on the
(ii) NATO Response Force (NRF). Increased provision of properly organised, equipped and
from 13,000 to approximately 40,000 troops, and the trained forces to provide rapid reinforcements if
establishment of a Very High Readiness Joint Task needed.
Force (VJTF) (see Figure 3 below). (v) Increased command and control capacity.
The strengthening of multinational corps and
(iii) NATO Force Integration Units (NFIU). The division level headquarters in Poland, and the
creation of eight small headquarters on the territory establishment of multinational division and brigade
of eastern Allies that can facilitate Allied headquarters in Romania.
reinforcements (see Figure 2 above). (vi) NATO Air Policing. Fighter aircraft in air
Enhanced NRF consists of bases across Europe on 15-minute standby, as well
three brigades, the first of which
(VJTF) is available in 3-7 days. as airborne early warning (AWACS) patrols. There
40,000 --- is also a greater maritime presence in the Baltic and
Black Seas.
(vii) Graduated Response Plans (GRP). The
30,000 ---
development of tailored plans for the reinforcement
and defence of Allies on the Alliances northern,
Enhanced eastern and south-eastern periphery.
NATO
Response
20,000 --- NRF consisted of a
Force
(viii) Exercises. Increased exercises of varying
single brigade
available in 5-10 days.
scale by NATO and Allies across the Alliances
northern, eastern and southern periphery.

10,000 --- Original All of these efforts generate growing logistical and
NATO
Response infrastructure needs. A complex planning process to
Force
ensure cross-border movement, efficient logistical
arrangements, and to develop the necessary
2009-2014 2015 onwards infrastructure, is currently underway. Without this, a
fully strengthened deterrence and defence posture
Figure 3 Transformation of the NATO Response Force
cannot be established.

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National contributions Cyber defence

In addition, several Allies are also strengthening the Cyber-attacks are becoming more frequent and
Alliances deterrence and defence posture on a sophisticated. They could reach a threshold where
national, bilateral and multilateral basis. They are they become as harmful as a conventional attack
doing this by means of force rotation, equipment and could potentially trigger, based on a decision by
storage and exercising arrangements. This includes Allies, a collective defence response under Article 5
the continuous presence, on a rotational basis, of a of the North Atlantic Treaty. NATO has strengthened
US Army armoured brigade operating from Poland. the protection of its networks and has Rapid
Reaction Teams on standby to counter attacks.
Framework for the South Cyber defence capability targets have been
developed for Allies. Cyber defence has also been
The Alliances deterrence and defence posture included in NATOs operational planning, training,
responds to threats from all directions, including by education and exercises.
ensuring that the NATO Response Force (NRF) can At the Warsaw Summit, leaders decided to
be deployed throughout NATO territory and beyond. designate cyber as an operational domain alongside
the land, sea and air domains. They also adopted a
NATO is enhancing its situational awareness and Cyber Defence Pledge to strengthen and enhance
regional understanding through a new regional Hub national cyber defences as a matter of priority.
for the South, and is improving its ability to conduct
expeditionary operations through advance planning, Resilience and civil preparedness
capability development and exercises.
NATOs defence and deterrence relies increasingly
Support and assurance for Turkey on critical civilian enablers. At the Warsaw Summit,
Allies committed to enhancing their resilience and
civil preparedness in seven areas. These are:
NATO has tailored assurance measures to support continuity of government, the management of large
Turkey and deployments to reinforce its air scale population movements, a capacity to handle
defences. These measures include AWACS flights, mass casualties, and resilient energy supplies, food
port visits and exercises with NATOs Standing and water supplies, civilian communications
Naval Forces, and surface-to-air missile batteries. services, and civilian transportation systems.

1.2 Projecting stability beyond the Alliances boundaries


Ensuring the security of Allies is not only about for international terrorism.
deterrence and defence at home, it is also about
what happens beyond our borders. This is why Allied (ii) Support to the Counter-ISIL Coalition.
leaders decided in Warsaw to enhance NATOs NATO provides air surveillance support to, and
efforts to project stability: to help our partners defend every Ally is a member of, the Global Coalition.
themselves, and to fight terrorism. Coalition efforts benefit from NATO interoperability.

NATO has extensive experience in projecting (iii) Iraq. NATO has initiated a modest training
stability, through our operations in the Balkans and and capacity-building programme for Iraq. This
Afghanistan, and through many years of cooperation takes place both in Iraq and in Jordan.
with our partners.
(iv) Maritime Security. NATO is helping to
Figure 4 on page 10 depicts the reorientation of address Europes refugee and migrant crisis by
NATO from large-scale operations to practical deploying ships to the Aegean Sea. This contributed
cooperation with partners to project stability. The to a steep decline in migration flows in 2016
following key measures have been implemented or compared with 2015. NATO has also launched
initiated: Operation Sea Guardian in the Mediterranean Sea,
which can perform a broad range of maritime
(i) Afghanistan. At the end of 2014, NATO security tasks, including enhancing situational
ended its ISAF operation in Afghanistan and began awareness. Sea Guardian also supports the EUs
the Resolute Support Mission (RSM) to train, advise Operation Sophia.
and assist Afghan security forces. In Warsaw, Allies
decided to sustain RSM beyond 2016. Allies also (v) Southern partners. To contribute to regional
decided to maintain funding for the Afghan National security and stability, NATO is helping our regional
Defence and Security Forces through 2020. This partners in the South to build their defence capacity.
NATO-led engagement continues to help prevent The recently established NATO-ICI Regional Centre
Afghanistan from becoming once more a safe haven in Kuwait will support this effort.
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(vi) Eastern partners. NATO is intensifying contributes to the fight against terrorism. The 4,500-
information exchange, joint exercising and capacity troop KFOR operation in Kosovo continues to play
building with our European partners, including an essential role. NATOs offices and programs in
Georgia and Ukraine. This aims to help them the region help to promote reform and, where it is of
preserve their political independence and military interest, Euro-Atlantic integration.
security in the face of Russian pressure.
NATO also works with a range of partners across the
(vii) Cooperation with the European Union. globe. Today, NATO has formal partnerships with
NATO and the EU have strengthened their over 40 countries and a range of international
cooperation in a number of areas over the past two organisations, including the United Nations, the EU,
years, including in the support we give to our the African Union and the Gulf Cooperation Council.
partners. These partnerships have helped to establish and
deepen military interoperability for multinational
Alongside these new efforts, NATO promotes lasting operations, be they NATO-led or ad hoc coalitions.
stability in the Western Balkans. This also

SFOR : Bosnia and NATO takes over Completion of ISAF


IFOR : Bosnia and ISAF
Herzegovina Start of Resolute
Herzegovina Afghanistan
KFOR : Kosovo Support

150,000
149,000 Counter-Terrorism and
Special Operations
Forces training
Number of deployed personnel

120,000
Training and capacity-
building

90,000 Mine clearing and


counter-improvised
explosive device
66,000 protection
56,000
60,000 60,000
Average number Security Sector Reform
of deployed personnel

30,000 Outreach and


cooperation with partners
(East and South)

16,000
0

1995 2005 2015


Figure 4 Reorientation of NATO from large operations to training and capacity-building in support of Projecting Stability

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2. Reforming and resourcing NATO

NATOs Adaptation requires responsibilities to be It encompasses a wide range of tasks, activities,


shared fairly among all Allies. In the past two years, operations and missions, which Allies have agreed
non-US Allies have reversed the trend of defence to undertake through NATO.
spending cuts. However, there is still a long way to
go before all Allies meet the Defence Investment NATOs adaptation also requires the proper
Pledge (see below). resourcing of NATO as an organisation. While
progress has been made, it is clear that further
At the same time, it should be recognised that reform of NATOs institutional and command
burden sharing is more than just defence spending. arrangements is needed.

2.1 Allied defence expenditure trends, 2009-2016


National defence expenditure is the single most stopped. The upward trend continued in 2016 with
important factor influencing the quality and quantity 22 Allies increasing their defence spending and an
of forces and capabilities that the Alliance can bring overall increase of 3.8% in real terms (see Figure 5
to bear. In 2014, NATO Heads of State and below).
Government adopted the Defence Investment
Pledge. However, in 2016 only five Allies met the guideline
of spending 2% of GDP on defence. While the
This Pledge commits all Allies to stop the cuts, number of Allies spending less than 1% has
increase defence spending and move towards the decreased, half of the Alliance still only spend
2% of GDP guideline within a decade. It also between 1% and 1.5% of GDP on defence.
commits Allies to spend 20% of their defence budget
on new equipment and related research and
development and to meet their capability targets and In 2016, ten Allies met the NATO guideline to spend
guidelines for the deployability and sustainability of more than 20% of their defence budgets on major
their forces. equipment and research and technology. A further
four Allies spent between 15% and 20%. However,
In 2015, for the first time in many years, the cuts to six Allies still spend less than 10%.
defence spending by Canada and European Allies

4.0 3.8

3.0

2.0

1.0
0.5
%

0.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e

-1.0
-1.0

-2.0 -1.6
-2.1
-2.4 -2.4
-3.0
-3.0
Figures for 2016 are estimates
(March 2017)
-4.0

Figure 5 - NATO Europe and Canada Defence expenditures, annual real change, based on 2010 prices

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2.2 Capabilities
NATOs capabilities must be adequate in nature, integrated system to manage NATO air operations.
sufficient in quantity, and flexible enough to respond ACCS will give Allies a higher level of situational
to current and future challenges. To support Allies, awareness and operational responsiveness. It will
NATOs common architecture and strategic enablers connect Missile Defence assets with ground and
align Allied efforts to avoid fragmentation and sea-based sensors and interceptors. It will also
inefficiency (see Figure 6 below). NATO also offers bridge a gap between Air Defence and Missile
an attractive market place for Allies to collaborate Defence.
with each other on capability delivery.
2016 was an important year for NATO, with key Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD)
enablers reaching Initial Operational Capability. BMD protects Allied populations, territory, and
These were Joint Intelligence, Surveillance and forces in Europe from potential ballistic missile
Reconnaissance (JISR), Air Command and Control threats. In January 2017, the Standing Defence Plan
System (ACCS) and Ballistic Missile Defence for Air and Missile Defence was updated to allow,
(BMD). amongst other things, for a seamless transition from
peacetime to crisis operations. A comprehensive
Joint Intelligence Surveillance and programme review will address outstanding issues
Reconnaissance (JISR) related to the implementation of the BMD
JISR integrates people and equipment to support programme.
decision-makers with timely information and
intelligence. Initial Operational Capability for JISR is Federated Mission Networking (FMN)
centred on enhancing the situational awareness of FMN builds on our experience in Afghanistan with
the NATO Response Force. The JISR initiative is the use of a single mission network. The FMN
now expanding to maximise the use of Allies programme aims for a common design for national
complementary ISR abilities. Building on this, and NATO command networks, with NATO
NATOs Alliance Ground Surveillance (AGS) standards and advanced technologies.
capability, combined with national assets and
NATOs Airborne Early Warning and Control Force
(16 AWACS aircraft), will deliver a more robust Joint Precision Strike
Alliance-wide JISR capacity. Building on our experience in Libya, nine Allies are
cooperating to acquire and share air-to-ground
Air Command and Control System (ACCS) Precision Guided Munitions (PGM). The first
ACCS will replace a wide variety of NATO and multinational order for PGMs will be delivered in a
national air systems. It will provide a single, staged process between 2017 and 2019.

AIR COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEM (ACCS) FEDERATED MISSION NETWORKING


(FMN)

Communications and
Information Systems
linking seamlessly
national forces and
NATO commands in a
From fragmented legacy systems to a
single federated
single, interoperable Air C2 system
network

JOINT INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE, AND BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENCE


RECONNAISSANCE (JISR)

ADDING VALUE
AND CONNECTING
FORCES
THROUGH A new, collective
capacity to defend
Combined Capacity associated the new airborne
COLLECTIVE against ballistic
missiles launched
Alliance ground Surveillance capability, national JISR CAPABILITIES from outside the Euro-
assets, and a modernized NATO airborne early warning
(AWACS) force Atlantic region

Figure 6 NATOs new backbone capabilities

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2.3 The NATO Organisation and Command Structure
25000 30

25
20000
Number of personnel

Number of Allies
20
15000
15
10000
10

5000
5

0 0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

International Staff International Military Staff (ceiling) NATO Command Structure Number of Allies

Figure 7 - NATO civilian and military manpower, 1990-2016

NATO has undergone significant institutional The organisation is funded by a common budget of
change since the end of the Cold War. The Alliance roughly 2 billion euros. This budget pays for the
has expanded from 16 to 28 Allies, and from having organisation itself, contributes to NATO critical
no partners to having more than 40 around the capabilities like Ballistic Missile Defence and
world. At the same time, the total number of civilian Airborne Early Warning and Control (AWACS), as
and military personnel in NATO as an organisation well as infrastructure to support NATO Allies across
has fallen from approximately 25,000 to below Europe.
10,000. And the number of headquarters in the
command structure has fallen from 37 to seven1. Allies contribute to the common budgets based on
Figure 7, above, shows the substantial decline in the size of their Gross National Income (GNI). The
civilian and military manpower since 1990. exception is the United States, which represents
46% of the Alliances aggregate
HQ Allied Maritime
HQ SACT
Command
Joint Warfare Centre GNI, but which contributes just over
Norfolk, USA Stavanger, Norway
Northwood, UK 22% of common funding.
HQ Allied Joint Force
Command A more challenging security
Brunssum, Netherlands
environment means that NATO has
SHAPE
Mons, Belgium to deal with many more, new and
HQ Communications and
complex security threats. It is clear
Information Systems Group that major capacity shortfalls now
Mons, Belgium
exist. In 2017, NATO will adapt its
Joint Force Training Centre
Bydgoszcz, Poland
Command Structure. Allies are
expected to deliver a NATO
HQ Allied Air Command
Ramstein, Germany Command Structure that is fit for
purpose and that can prevail if
confronted with large-scale
warfighting (see Figure 8, on the
left, for the location of the
Joint Analysis and Lessons
Learned Centre
HQ Allied Joint Force
Command
HQ Allied Land Command headquarters in the current NATO
Izmir, Turkey
Monsanto, Portugal Naples, Italy Command Structure).
Figure 8: Geographic footprint of the current NATO Command Structure

1SHAPE, HQs JFCs Brunssum and Naples and HQs AIRCOM,


LANDCOM and MARCOM as well as HQ SACT
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All maps are based on commercial data. Digital Map Data (C) Collins Bartholomew LTD (2013).
The boundaries and names shown and the designations used do not imply official endorsement or acceptance
by NATO
Final boundary between the Republic of Sudan and the Republic of South Sudan has not yet been determined.

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