statistics basics, null and alternative hypotesis

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Ch8 Statistics

statistics basics, null and alternative hypotesis

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- Statistics Assignment Sample with Solutions
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8-1 Overview

A hypothesis test (or test of significance): A process by which a decision is made between two opposing

hypotheses. The two opposing hypotheses are formulated so that each hypothesis is the negation of the other. (That

way, one of them is always true, and the other one is always false.) Then one hypothesis is tested in hopes that it can

be shown to be a very improbable occurrence, thereby implying that the other hypothesis is likely the truth.

A friend is having a party (Super Bowl party, home-from-college partyyou know the situation, any reason will do),

and you have been invited. You must make a decision: attend or not attend. Thats simplewell, except that you

want to go only if you can be convinced the party is going to be more fun than your friends typical parties.

Furthermore, you definitely do not want to go if the party is going to be just another dud. You have taken the

position that the party will be a dud and you will not go unless you become convinced otherwise. Your friend

assures you, Guaranteed, the party will be a great time! Do you go or not?

The decision-making process starts by identifying something of concern and then formulating two hypotheses about

it.

Rare Event Rule for Inferential Statistics

If, under a given assumption, the probability of a particular observed event is exceptionally small, we conclude that

the assumption is probably not correct.

Example 1: Gender Selection Page 386

ProCare Industries, Ltd., once provided a product called Gender Choice, which, according to advertising claims,

allowed couples to increase your chances of having a boy up to 85%, a girl up to 80%. Gender Choice was

available in blue packages for couples wanting a baby boy and (you guessed it) pink packages for couples wanting a

baby girl. Suppose we conduct an experiment with 100 couples who want to have baby girls, and they all follow the

Gender Choice easy-to-use in-home system described in the pink package. For the purpose of testing the claim of

an increased likelihood for girls, we will assume that Gender Choice has no effect. Using common sense and no

formal statistical methods, what should we conclude about the assumption of no effect from Gender Choice if 100

couples using Gender Choice have 100 babies consisting of

a) 52 girls?; b) 97 girls?

Solution:

a) We normally expect around 50 girls in 100 births. The result of 52 girls is close to 50, so we should not conclude

that the Gender Choice product is effective. If the 100 couples used no special method of gender selection, the

result of 52 girls could easily occur by chance. The assumption of no effect from Gender Choice appears to be

correct. There isnt sufficient evidence to say that Gender Choice is effective.

( = 52) = (100

52

)(0.5)52 (0.5)48 0.074

b) The result of 97 girls in 100 births is extremely unlikely to occur by chance. We could explain the occurrence of

97 girls in one of two ways: Either an extremely rare event has occurred by chance, or Gender Choice is effective.

The extremely low probability of getting 97 girls is strong evidence against the assumption that Gender Choice has

no effect. It does appear to be effective.

( = 97) = (100

97

)(0.5)97 (0.5)3 1.28 1025

5 Steps of a Hypothesis Test

1. Assumptions

A (significance) test assumes that the data production used randomization

Other assumptions may include:

Assumptions about the sample size

Assumptions about the shape of the population distribution

2. Hypotheses

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

A hypothesis is a statement about a population, usually of the form that a certain parameter takes a

particular numerical value or falls in a certain range of values

The main goal in many research studies is to check whether the data support certain hypotheses

Each significance test has two hypotheses:

The null hypothesis is a statement that the parameter takes a particular value. It has a single

parameter value.

The alternative hypothesis states that the parameter falls in some alternative range of values.

Null and Alternative Hypotheses

The value in the null hypothesis usually represents no effect

The symbol Ho denotes null hypothesis

The value in the alternative hypothesis usually represents an effect of some type

The symbol Ha (H1 HA ) denotes alternative hypothesis

The alternative hypothesis should express what the researcher hopes to show.

The hypotheses should be formulated before viewing or analyzing the data!

3. Calculate the test statistic

A test statistic describes how far the point estimate falls from the parameter value given in the null

hypothesis (usually in terms of the number of standard errors between the two).

If the test statistic falls far from the value suggested by the null hypothesis in the direction specified by the

alternative hypothesis, it is good evidence against the null hypothesis and in favor of the alternative

hypothesis.

We use the test statistic to assesses the evidence against the null hypothesis by giving a probability , the P-

Value.

4. P-Value, Critical region, or Confidence Interval

To interpret a test statistic value, we use a probability summary of the evidence against the null hypothesis,

Ho

First, we presume that Ho is true

Next, we consider the sampling distribution from which the test statistic comes

We summarize how far out in the tail of this sampling distribution the test statistic falls

We summarize how far out in the tail the test statistic falls by the tail probability of that value and values

even more extreme

This probability is called a P-value

The smaller the -value, the stronger the evidence is against Ho

The P-value is the probability that the test statistic equals the observed value or a value even more extreme

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

The smaller the P-value, the stronger the evidence the data provide against the null hypothesis.

That is, a small P-value indicates a small likelihood of observing the sampled results if the null

hypothesis were true.

5. Conclusion and Statistic Significance

The conclusion of a significance test reports the P-value and interprets what it says about the question that

motivated the test

This section presents individual components of a hypothesis test, and the following sections use those components in

comprehensive procedures.

The role of the following should be understood:

null hypothesis

alternative hypothesis

test statistic

critical region

significance level

critical value

P-value

Type I and II error

Example 1: Gender Selection and Probability Page 388

Lets again refer to the Gender Choice product that was once distributed by ProCare Industries. ProCare Industries

claimed that couples using the pink packages of Gender Choice would have girls at a rate that is greater than 50% or

0.5. Lets again consider an experiment whereby 100 couples use Gender Choice in an attempt to have a baby girl;

lets assume that the 100 babies include exactly 52 girls, and lets formalize some of the analysis.

Under normal circumstances the proportion of girls is = 0.5, so a claim that Gender Choice is effective can be

expressed as > 0.5. We support the claim of > 0.5 only if a result such as 52 girls is unlikely(with a small

probability, such as 0.05).

Using a normal distribution as an approximation to the binomial distribution, we find P(52 or more girls in 100

births) = 0.3821.

Figure 8-1, following, shows that with a probability of 0.5, the outcome of 52 girls in 100 births is not unusual.

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

We do not reject random chance as a reasonable explanation. We conclude that the proportion of girls born to

couples using Gender Choice is not significantly greater than the number that we would expect by random chance.

Observations

Claim: For couples using Gender Choice, the proportion of girls is > 0.5.

Working assumption: The proportion of girls is = 0.5 (with no effect from Gender Choice).

The sample resulted in 52 girls among 100 births, so the sample proportion is = 52/100 = 0.52.

Assuming that = 0.5, we use a normal distribution as an approximation to the binomial distribution to find

that P (at least 52 girls in 100 births) = 0.3821.

There are two possible explanations for the result of 52 girls in 100 births: Either a random chance event (with

probability 0.3821) has occurred, or the proportion of girls born to couples using Gender Choice is greater than

0.5.

There isnt sufficient evidence to support Gender Choices claim.

Components of a Formal Hypothesis Test

Null Hypothesis: H0

The null hypothesis (denoted by H0) is a statement that the value of a population parameter (such as

proportion, mean, or standard deviation) is equal to some claimed value.

A statistical hypothesis that contains a statement of equality such as , =, or .

We test the null hypothesis directly.

Either reject H0 or fail to reject H0.

Alternative Hypothesis: Ha

The alternative hypothesis (denoted by H1 or Ha or HA) is the statement that the parameter has a value that

somehow differs from the null hypothesis.

The symbolic form of the alternative hypothesis must use one of these symbols: , <, >.

Must be true if H0 is false.

Note about Forming Your Own Claims (Hypotheses)

If you are conducting a study and want to use a hypothesis test to support your claim, the claim must be worded so

that it becomes the alternative hypothesis.

Example 2: Identifying H0 and Ha

You are testing a new design for air bags used in automobiles, and you are concerned that they might not open

properly. State the null and alternative hypotheses.

Solution: The two opposing possibilities are Bags open properly and Bags do not open properly. Testing could

produce evidence that discredits the hypothesis Bags open properly; plus your concern is that Bags do not open

properly. Therefore, Bags do not open properly would become the alternative hypothesis and Bags open

properly would be the null hypothesis.

Example 3: Identifying H0 and Ha

An engineer wishes to show that the new formula that was just developed results in a quicker-drying paint. State the

null and alternative hypotheses.

Solution: The two opposing possibilities are does dry quicker and does not dry quicker. Because the engineer

wishes to show does dry quicker, the alternative hypothesis is Paint made with the new formula does dry quicker

and the null hypothesis is Paint made with the new formula does not dry quicker.

Example 4: Identifying H0 and Ha

You suspect that a brand-name detergent outperforms the stores brand of detergent, and you wish to test the two

detergents because you would prefer to buy the cheaper store brand. State the null and alternative hypotheses.

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

Solution: Your suspicion, The brand-name detergent outperforms the store brand, is the reason for the test and

therefore becomes the alternative hypothesis.

H0 : There is no difference in detergent performance.

Ha : The brand-name detergent performs better than the store brand.

However, as a consumer, you are hoping not to reject the null hypothesis for budgetary reasons.

Step 1

: : : =

{ 0 ; { 0 ; { 0

: > : < :

Step 2

Regardless of which pair of hypotheses you

use, you always assume = k and examine

the sampling distribution on the basis of this

Step 3 assumption.

Identify the Null and Alternative Hypothesis. Refer to Figure 8-2 and use the given claims to express the

corresponding null and alternative hypotheses in symbolic form.

a) The proportion of drivers who admit to running red lights is greater than 0.5.

Solution: The proportion of drivers who admit to running red lights is greater than 0.5. In Step 1 of Figure

8-2, we express the given claim as > 0.5. In Step 2, we see that if > 0.5 is false, then 0.5

must be true. In Step 3, we see that the expression > 0.5 does not contain equality, so we let the

alternative hypothesis Ha be > 0.5, and we let H0 be = 0.5.

b) The mean height of professional basketball players is at most 7 ft.

Solution: The mean height of professional basketball players is at most 7 ft. In Step 1 of Figure 8-2, we

express a mean of at most 7 ft in symbols as m 7. In Step 2, we see that if m 7 is false, then > 7

must be true. In Step 3, we see that the expression > 7 does not contain equality, so we let the

alternative hypothesis Ha be > 0.5, and we let H0 be = 7.

c) The standard deviation of IQ scores of actors is equal to 15.

Solution: The standard deviation of IQ scores of actors is equal to 15. In Step 1 of Figure 8-2, we express

the given claim as s = 15. In Step 2, we see that if s = 15 is false, then s 15 must be true. In Step

3, we let the alternative hypothesis Ha be s 15, and we let H0 be s = 15.

Determining the statement of the null hypothesis and the statement of the alternative hypothesis is a very important

step. The basic idea of the hypothesis test is for the evidence to have a chance to disprove the null hypothesis. The

null hypothesis is the statement that the evidence might disprove. Your concern (belief or desired outcome), as the

person doing the testing, is expressed in the alternative hypothesis. As the person making the decision, you believe

that the evidence will demonstrate the feasibility of your theory by demonstrating the unlikeliness of the truth of

the null hypothesis.

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

Write the claim as a mathematical sentence. State the null and alternative hypotheses and identify which represents

the claim.

a) A university publicizes that the proportion of its students who graduate in 4 years is 82%.

Solution: H0: p = 0.82 Equality condition (Claim)

Ha: p 0.82 Complement of H0

b) A water faucet manufacturer announces that the mean flow rate of a certain type of faucet is less than 2.5

gallons per minute.

Solution: H0: = 2.5 gallons per minute Complement of Ha

Ha: < 2.5 gallons per minute Inequality condition (Claim)

c) A cereal company advertises that the mean weight of the contents of its 20-ounce size cereal boxes is more than

20 ounces.

Solution: H0: = 20 ounces Complement of Ha

Ha: > 20 ounces Inequality condition (Claim)

For each of the following claims, determine the null and alternative hypotheses. State whether the test is two-tailed,

left-tailed or right-tailed.

a) In 2008, 62% of American adults regularly volunteered their time for charity work. A researcher believes that

this percentage is different today.

Solution: The hypothesis deals with a population proportion, p. If the percentage participating in charity

work is no different than in 2008, it will be 0.62 so the null hypothesis is H0: p=0.62.

Since the researcher believes that the percentage is different today, the alternative hypothesis is a two-

tailed hypothesis: Ha: p0.62

b) According to a study published in March, 2006 the mean length of a phone call on a cellular telephone was 3.25

minutes. A researcher believes that the mean length of a call has increased since then.

Solution: The hypothesis deals with a population mean, m. If the mean call length on a cellular phone is

no different than in 2006, it will be 3.25 minutes so the null hypothesis is H0: m=3.25.

Since the researcher believes that the mean call length has increased, the alternative hypothesis is: H1: m >

3.25, a right-tailed test.

c) Using an old manufacturing process, the standard deviation of the amount of wine put in a bottle was 0.23

ounces. With new equipment, the quality control manager believes the standard deviation has decreased.

Solution: The hypothesis deals with a population standard deviation, s. If the standard deviation with the

new equipment has not changed, it will be 0.23 ounces so the null hypothesis is H0: s = 0.23. Since the

quality control manager believes that the standard deviation has decreased, the alternative hypothesis is:

Ha: s < 0.23, a left-tailed test.

Test Statistic

The test statistic is a value used in making a decision about the null hypothesis, and is found by converting the

sample statistic to a score with the assumption that the null hypothesis is true.

Formulas

p p

Test statistic for proportions z

pq

n

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

xm xm

Test statistic for mean z or t

s s

n n

(n 1) s 2

Test statistic for standard deviation 2

s2

Example 8: Find the test statistic Page 392

A survey of n = 880 randomly selected adult drivers showed that 56% (or p = 0.56) of those respondents admitted to

running red lights. Find the value of the test statistic for the claim that the majority of all adult drivers admit to

running red lights.

Solution: The preceding example showed that the given claim results in the following null and alternative

hypotheses: H0: = 0.5 and Ha: > 0.5. Because we work under the assumption that the null hypothesis is

true with = 0.5, we get the following test statistic:

0.56 0.5

= = = 3.56

(0.5)(0.5)

880

Interpretation: We know from previous chapters that a z score of 3.56 is exceptionally large. It appears that in

addition to being more than half, the sample result of 56% is significantly more than 50%

Critical Region

.

Critical Region, Critical Value, Test Statistic

Critical Region

The critical region (or rejection region) is the set of all values of the test statistic that cause us to reject the null

hypothesis. For example, see the red-shaded region in the previous figure.

Significance Level

The significance level (denoted by ) is the probability that the test statistic will fall in the critical region when the

null hypothesis is actually true. This is the same introduced in Section 7-2. Common choices for are 0.05, 0.01,

and 0.10.

Critical Value

A critical value is any value that separates the critical region (where we reject the null hypothesis) from the values of

the test statistic that do not lead to rejection of the null hypothesis. The critical values depend on the nature of the

null hypothesis, the sampling distribution that applies, and the significance level . See the previous figure where

the critical value of z = 1.645 corresponds to a significance level of = 0.05.

Two-tailed, Right-tailed, Left-tailed Tests

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

The tails in a distribution are the extreme regions bounded by critical values.

Two-tailed Test: is divided equally between the two tails of the critical region

H0: = and Ha:

means less than or greater than

Right-tailed Test

H0: = and Ha: >

points right

Left-tailed Test

H0: = and Ha: <

points left

Use a significance level of = 0.05, find the critical values for each of the following alternative hypotheses

(assume the normal distribution can be used to approximate the binomial distribution):

a) 0.5 (so the critical region is in both tails of the normal distribution)

Solution: See the figure. The shaded tails contain a total area of = 0.05, so each tail has area of 0.025.

Use methods of 6-2, the critical values of = 1.96 and = 1.96.

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

b) < 0.5 (so the critical region is in the left tail of the normal distribution)

Solution: With left tail area of 0.05. the critical value is found to be = 1.645.

c) > 0.5 (so the critical region is in the right tail of the normal distribution)

Solution: With right tail area of 0.05. the critical value is found to be = 1.645.

P-Value

The P-value (or p-value or probability value) is the probability of getting a value of the test statistic that is at least as

extreme as the one representing the sample data, assuming that the null hypothesis is true. The null hypothesis is

rejected if the P-value is very small, such as 0.05 or less.

Left-tailed Test Right-tailed Test Two-tailed Test

The alternative hypothesis Ha The alternative hypothesis Ha The alternative hypothesis Ha

contains the less-than contains the greater-than contains the not equal inequality

inequality symbol (<). inequality symbol (>). symbol (). Each tail has an area

H0 : H0 : of P.

{ { H : =

Ha : < Ha : > { 0

Ha :

For each claim, state H0 and Ha. Then determine whether the hypothesis test is a left-tailed, right-tailed, or two-

tailed test. Sketch a normal sampling distribution and shade the area for the P-value.

a) A university publicizes that the proportion of its students who graduate in 4 years is 82%.

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

H : = 0.8

Solution: { 0 Two-tailed test

Ha : 0.8

b) A water faucet manufacturer announces that the mean flow rate of a certain type of faucet is less than 2.5

gallons per minute.

H0 : 2.5 gpm

Solution: { Left-tailed test

Ha : < 2.5 gpm

c) A cereal company advertises that the mean weight of the contents of its 20-ounce size cereal boxes is more than

20 ounces.

H : 20 oz

Solution: { 0 Right-tailed test

Ha : > 20 oz

We always test the null hypothesis. The initial conclusion will always be one of the following:

1. Reject the null hypothesis.

2. Fail to reject the null hypothesis.

Decision Criterion

Traditional method:

Reject H0 if the test statistic falls within the critical region.

Fail to reject H0 if the test statistic does not fall within the critical region.

P-value method:

Reject H0 if the -value (where is the significance level, such as 0.05).

Fail to reject H0 if the P-value > .

Another option:

Instead of using a significance level such as 0.05, simply identify the P-value and leave the decision to the reader.

Confidence Intervals:

Because a confidence interval estimate of a population parameter contains the likely values of that parameter, reject

a claim that the population parameter has a value that is not included in the confidence interval.

Procedure for Finding P-Values

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

First determine whether the given conditions result in a right-tailed test, a left-tailed test, or a two-tailed test, then

find the P-values and state a conclusion about the null hypothesis.

a) A significance level of = 0.05 is used in testing the claim that p > 0.25, and the sample data result in a test

statistic of z = 1.18.

Solution: With a claim of p > 0.25, the test is right-tailed. Because the test is right-tailed, Figure 8-6 shows that

the P-value is the area to the right of the test statistic z = 1.18. We refer to Table A-2 and find that the area to

the right of z = 1.18 is 0.1190. The P-value of 0.1190 is greater than the significance level = 0.05, so we fail

to reject the null hypothesis. The P-value of 0.1190 is relatively large, indicating that the sample results could

easily occur by chance.

b) A significance level of = 0.05 is used in testing the claim that p 0.25, and the sample data result in a test

statistic of z = 2.34.

Solution: With a claim of p 0.25, the test is two-tailed. Because the test is two-tailed, and because the test

statistic of z = 2.34 is to the right of the center, Figure 8-6 shows that the P-value is twice the area to the right of

z = 2.34. We refer to Table A-2 and find that the area to the right of z = 2.34 is 0.0096, so P-value = 2

0.0096 = 0.0192. The P-value of 0.0192 is less than or equal to the significance level, so we reject the null

hypothesis. The small P-value o 0.0192 shows that the sample results are not likely to occur by chance.

Wording of Final Conclusion

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

You perform a hypothesis test for the following claim. How should you interpret your decision if you reject H0? If

you fail to reject H0?

a) H0 (Claim): A university publicizes that the proportion of its students who graduate in 4 years is 82%.

Solution: The claim is represented by H0.

If you reject H0 you should conclude there is sufficient evidence to indicate that the universitys claim

is false.

If you fail to reject H0, you should conclude there is insufficient evidence to indicate that the

universitys claim (of a four-year graduation rate of 82%) is false.

b) Ha (Claim): Consumer Reports states that the mean stopping distance (on a dry surface) for a Honda Civic is

less than 136 feet.

Solution: The claim is represented by Ha.

H0 is the mean stopping distanceis greater than or equal to 136 feet.

If you reject H0 you should conclude there is enough evidence to support Consumer Reports claim

that the stopping distance for a Honda Civic is less than 136 feet.

If you fail to reject H0, you should conclude there is not enough evidence to support Consumer

Reports claim that the stopping distance for a Honda Civic is less than 136 feet.

Example 13: Stating the Conclusion

According to a study published in March, 2006 the mean length of a phone call on a cellular telephone was 3.25

minutes. A researcher believes that the mean length of a call has increased since then.

a) Suppose the sample evidence indicates that the null hypothesis should be rejected. State the wording of the

conclusion.

Solution: The statement in the alternative hypothesis is that the mean call length is greater than 3.25 minutes.

Since the null hypothesis (m=3.25) is rejected, we conclude that there is sufficient evidence to conclude that the

mean length of a phone call on a cell phone is greater than 3.25 minutes.

b) Suppose the sample evidence indicates that the null hypothesis should not be rejected. State the wording of the

conclusion.

Solution: Since the null hypothesis (m=3.25) is not rejected, we conclude that there is insufficient evidence to

conclude that the mean length of a phone call on a cell phone is greater than 3.25 minutes. In other words, the

sample evidence is consistent with the mean call length equaling 3.25 minutes.

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

The term accept is somewhat misleading, implying incorrectly that the null has been proven. The phrase fail to

reject represents the result more correctly.

We never accept the null hypothesis because without having access to the entire population, we dont know the

exact value of the parameter stated in the null. Rather, we say that we do not reject the null hypothesis. This is just

like the court system. We never declare a defendant innocent, but rather say the defendant is not guilty.

Types of Errors

No matter which hypothesis represents the claim, always begin the hypothesis test assuming that the equality

condition in the null hypothesis is true.

At the end of the test, one of two decisions will be made:

reject the null hypothesis

fail to reject the null hypothesis

Because your decision is based on a sample, there is the possibility of making the wrong decision.

Truth of H0

Decision H0 is True H0 is False

Do not reject H0 Correct Decision Type II Error

Type I Error

A Type I error is the mistake of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true.

The symbol (alpha) is used to represent the probability of a type I error.

Type II Error

A Type II error is the mistake of failing to reject the null hypothesis when it is false.

The symbol (beta) is used to represent the probability of a type II error.

For example, you claim that a coin is not fair. To test your claim, you flip the coin 100 times and get 49 heads and

51 tails. You would probably agree that you dont have enough evidence to support your claim. Even so, it is

possible that the coin is actually not fair and you had unusual sample. But what if you flip the coin 100 times and

get 21 heads and 79 tails? It would be a rare occurrence to get only 21 heads out of 100 tosses with a fair coin. So,

you probably have sufficient evidence to support your claim that the coin is not fair. However, you cant 100%

sure. It is possible that the coin is fair and you get an unusual sample. Remember , the only way to test whether H0 is

true or false is to test entire population. Because your decisionto reject H0 fail to reject H0--- is base on a sample,

you must accept the fact that your decision might be incorrect. You might reject a null hypothesis when it is actually

true. Or, you might fail to reject a null hypothesis when it is actually false.

Example 14: Type I and Type II Errors

Assume that we a conducting a hypothesis test of the claim p > 0.5. Here are the null and alternative hypotheses: H0:

p = 0.5, and H1: p > 0.5.

a) Identify a type I error.

Solution: A type I error is the mistake of rejecting a true null hypothesis, so this is a type I error: Conclude

that there is sufficient evidence to support p > 0.5, when in reality p = 0.5.

b) Identify a type II error.

Solution: A type II error is the mistake of failing to reject the null hypothesis when it is false, so this is a type II

error: Fail to reject p = 0.5 (and therefore fail to support p > 0.5) when in reality p > 0.5.

Example 15: Identifying Type I and Type II Errors

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

The USDA limit for salmonella contamination for chicken is 20%. A meat inspector reports that the chicken

produced by a company exceeds the USDA limit. You perform a hypothesis test to determine whether the meat

inspectors claim is true. When will a type I or type II error occur? Which is more serious? (Source: United States

Department of Agriculture)

Solution: Let p represent the proportion of chicken that is contaminated.

H0 : 0.20

Hypotheses: {

Ha : > 0.20 (Claim)

The actual proportion of contaminated chicken is less than or equal to 0.2, but you decide to reject H0.

A type II error is failing to reject H0 when it is false.

The actual proportion of contaminated chicken is greater than 0.2, but you do not reject H0.

With a type I error, you might create a health scare and hurt the sales of chicken producers who were actually

meeting the USDA limits.

With a type II error, you could be allowing chicken that exceeded the USDA contamination limit to be sold to

consumers.

A type II error could result in sickness or even death.

Example 16: Identifying Type I and Type II Errors

For each of the following claims, explain what it would mean to make a Type I error. What would it mean to make

a Type II error?

a) In 2008, 62% of American adults regularly volunteered their time for charity work. A researcher believes that

this percentage is different today.

Solution: A Type I error is made if the researcher concludes that p0.62 when the true proportion of

Americans 18 years or older who participated in some form of charity work is currently 62%.

A Type II error is made if the sample evidence leads the researcher to believe that the current

percentage of Americans 18 years or older who participated in some form of charity work is still 62% when,

in fact, this percentage differs from 62%.

b) According to a study published in March, 2006 the mean length of a phone call on a cellular telephone was 3.25

minutes. A researcher believes that the mean length of a call has increased since then.

Solution: A Type I error occurs if the sample evidence leads the researcher to conclude that m>3.25 when,

in fact, the actual mean call length on a cellular phone is still 3.25 minutes.

A Type II error occurs if the researcher fails to reject the hypothesis that the mean length of a

phone call on a cellular phone is 3.25 minutes when, in fact, it is longer than 3.25 minutes.

Level of significance

Your maximum allowable probability of making a type I error.

Denoted by , the lowercase Greek letter alpha.

By setting the level of significance at a small value, you are saying that you want the probability of rejecting a

true null hypothesis to be small.

Commonly used levels of significance:

= 0.10, = 0.05, = 0.01

P(type II error) =

= P(Type I Error)

= P(rejecting H0 when H0 is true)

= P(Type II Error)

= P(not rejecting H0 when Ha is true)

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

The probability of making a Type I error, , is chosen by the researcher before the sample data is collected. The

level of significance, , is the probability of making a Type I error. In Other Words: As the probability of a Type

I error increases, the probability of a Type II error decreases, and vice-versa.

Controlling Type I and Type II Errors

For any fixed , an increase in the sample size n will cause a decrease in .

For any fixed sample size n, a decrease in will cause an increase in . Conversely, an increase in will

cause a decrease in .

The power of a hypothesis test is the probability (1 ) of rejecting a false null hypothesis, which is computed

by using a particular significance level and a particular value of the population parameter that is an alternative to

the value assumed true in the null hypothesis. That is, the power of the hypothesis test is the probability of

supporting an alternative hypothesis that is true.

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

population parameter contains the likely

values of that parameter. We should

therefore reject a claim that the population

parameter has a value that is not included in

the confidence interval.

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

Caution: In some cases, a conclusion based on a confidence interval may be different from a conclusion based on a

hypothesis test.

1. State the claim mathematically and verbally. Identify the null and alternative hypotheses.

H0: ? H a: ?

2. Specify the level of significance.

= ?

3. Determine the standardized sampling distribution and draw its graph.

4. Calculate the test statistic and its standardized value. Add it to your sketch.

6. Use the following decision rule.

7. Write a statement to interpret the decision in the context of the original claim.

To test hypotheses regarding the population mean assuming the population standard deviation is known, two

requirements must be satisfied:

2. The population from which the sample is drawn is normally distributed or the sample size is large ( 30).

If these requirements are met, the distribution of is normal with mean m and standard deviation .

Recall the researcher who believes that the mean length of a cell phone call has increased from its March, 2006

mean of 3.25 minutes. Suppose we take a simple random sample of 36 cell phone calls. Assume the standard

deviation of the phone call lengths is known to be 0.78 minutes. What is the sampling distribution of the sample

mean?(Answer: is normally distributed with mean 3.25 and standard deviation 0.7836 = 0.13.)

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

Suppose the sample of 36 calls resulted in a sample mean of 3.56 minutes. Do the results of this sample suggest

that the researcher is correct? In other words, would it be unusual to obtain a sample mean of 3.56 minutes from a

population whose mean is 3.25 minutes? What is convincing or statistically significant evidence?

When observed results are unlikely under the assumption that the null hypothesis is true, we say the result is

statistically significant. When results are found to be statistically significant, we reject the null hypothesis.

One criterion we may use for sufficient evidence for rejecting the null hypothesis is if the sample mean is too many

standard deviations from the assumed (or status quo) population mean. For example, we may choose to reject the

null hypothesis if our sample mean is more than 2 standard deviations above the population mean of 3.25 minutes.

Recall that our simple random sample of 36 calls resulted in a sample mean of 3.56 minutes with standard deviation

3.563.25

of 0.13. Thus, the sample mean is = = 2.38 standard deviations above the hypothesized mean of

0.13

3.25 minutes.

Therefore, using our criterion, we would reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the mean cellular call length is

greater than 3.25 minutes.

Why does it make sense to reject the null hypothesis if the sample mean is more than 2 standard deviations above

the hypothesized mean?

If the null hypothesis were true, then 1 0.0228 = 0.9772 = 97.72% of all sample means will be less than

3.25 + 2(0.13) = 3.51.

Because sample means greater than 3.51 are unusual if the population mean is 3.25, we are inclined to believe the

population mean is greater than 3.25.

A second criterion we may use for sufficient evidence to support the alternative hypothesis is to compute how likely

it is to obtain a sample mean at least as extreme as that observed from a population whose mean is equal to the value

assumed by the null hypothesis.

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

We can compute the probability of obtaining a sample mean of 3.56 or more using the normal model.

3.563.25

Recall = = 2.38, So, we compute ( 3.56) = ( 2.38) = 0.0087.

0.13

The probability of obtaining a sample mean of 3.56 minutes or more from a population whose mean is 3.25 minutes

is 0.0087. This means that fewer than 1 sample in 100 will give us a mean as high or higher than 3.56 if the

population mean really is 3.25 minutes. Since this outcome is so unusual, we take this as evidence against the null

hypothesis.

Assuming that H0 is true, if the probability of getting a sample mean as extreme or more extreme than the one

obtained is small, we reject the null hypothesis.

This section presents complete procedures for testing a hypothesis (or claim) made about a population proportion.

This section uses the components introduced in the previous section for the P-value method, the traditional method

or the use of confidence intervals.

1. There are independent trials.

Requirements for Testing Claims About a Population Proportion p 2. Each trial has two possible outcomes

(success or failure).

The sample observations are a simple random sample. 3. (success) = , (failure) = = 1

.

The conditions for a binomial distribution are satisfied (Section 5-3).

The conditions 5 and 5 are satisfied, so the binomial distribution of sample proportions can be

approximated by a normal distribution with = and = .

Notation

n = number of trials

= (sample proportion)

Test Statistic

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

P-Value Method

Use the same method as described in Section 8-2 and in Figure 8-8. Use the standard normal distribution (Table A-

2).

Traditional Method

Use the same method as described in Section 8-2 and in Figure 8-9.

Use the same method as described in Section 8-2 and in Table 8-2.

An article distributed by the Associated Press included these results from a nationwide survey: Of 880 randomly

selected drivers, 56% admitted that they run red lights. The claim is that the majority of all Americans run red lights.

That is, p > 0.5. The sample data are n = 880, and p = 0.56. Use the sample data with a 0.05 significance level to

test the claim.

Solution:

Verify requirement:

2. Fixed number (880) of independent trials with two categories(either run red light or did not).

3. = 0.5 880 = 440 5, and = 0.5 880 = 440 5

P-value Method

Null Hypothesis: H0: p = 0.5, Alternative hypothesis: H1: p > 0.5 with = 0.05

0.560.5

Test statistic = = = 3.56

(0.5)(0.5)

880

Because the hypothesis test we are considering is right-tailed with test statistic = 3.56, the P-value is the area to

the right of = 3.56 and higher. Referring to Table A-2, we see that for values of = 3.50 and higher, we use

0.9999 for the cumulative area to the left of the test statistic. The P-value is 1 0.9999 = 0.0001.

Since the P-value of 0.0001 is less than the significance level of = 0.05, we reject the null hypothesis. There is

sufficient evidence to support the claim.

Traditional Method

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

This is a right-tailed test, so the critical region is an area of 0.05. Referring to Table A-2 and applying methods of

section 6-2, we find that z = 1.645 is the critical value of the critical region. We reject the null hypothesis. There is

sufficient evidence to support the claim.

For a one-tailed hypothesis test with significance level , we will construct a confidence interval with a confidence

level of 1 2. We construct a 90% confidence interval(See Table 8-2).

We obtain 0.533 < < 0.588(section 7-2). We are 90% confident that the true value of p is contained within the

limits of 0.533 and 0.588. Thus we support the claim that > 0.5.

CAUTION

When testing claims about a population proportion, the traditional method and the P-value method are equivalent

and will yield the same result since they use the same standard deviation based on the claimed proportion p.

However, the confidence interval uses an estimated standard deviation based upon the sample proportion .

Consequently, it is possible that the traditional and P-value methods may yield a different conclusion than the

confidence interval method.

A good strategy is to use a confidence interval to estimate a population proportion, but use the P-value or

traditional method for testing a hypothesis.

10% of the observer sports cars are red is given directly: = 0.10

96 surveyed households have cable TV and 54 do must be calculated using = .

not 96

= = = 0.64

96 + 54

Example 2: Hypothesis Test for Proportions page 411

When Gregory Mendel conducted his famous hybridization experiments with peas, one such experiment resulted in

offspring consisting of 428 peas with green pods and 152 peas with yellow pods. According to Mendels theory, 1/4

of the offspring peas should have yellow pods. Use a 0.05 significance level with the P-value method to test the

claim that the proportion of peas with yellow pods is equal to 1/4.

Null Hypothesis: H0: = 0.25, Alternative hypothesis: H1: 0.25 with = 0.05

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

0.260.25

Test statistic = = = 0.67

(0.25)(0.75)

580

Since this is a two-tailed test, the P-value is twice the area to the right of the test statistic. Using Table A-2, =

0.67 is 1 0.7486 = 0.2514.

The P-value is 2(0.2514) = 0.5028. We fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is not sufficient evidence to

warrant rejection of the claim that 1/4 of the peas have yellow pods.

Zogby International claims that 45% of people in the United States support making cigarettes illegal within the next

5 to 10 years. You decide to test this claim and ask a random sample of 200 people in the United States whether they

support making cigarettes illegal within the next 5 to 10 years. Of the 200 people, 49% support this law. At = 0.05

is there enough evidence to reject the claim?

Solution:

H0: = 0.45

Ha: 0.45

= 0.05

Rejection Region:

0.490.45

Test Statistic: = = 1.14

(0.45)(0.55)200

At the 5% level of significance, there is not enough evidence to reject the claim that 45% of people in the U.S.

support making cigarettes illegal within the next 5 to 10 years.

The Pew Research Center claims that more than 55% of U.S. adults regularly watch their local television news. You

decide to test this claim and ask a random sample of 425 adults in the United States whether they regularly watch

their local television news. Of the 425 adults, 255 respond yes. At = 0.05 is there enough evidence to support the

claim?

H0: 0.55

= 0.05

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

Rejection Region:

0.600.55

Test Statistic: = = 2.07

(0.45)(0.55)425

Decision: Reject 0

At the 5% level of significance, there is enough evidence to support the claim that more than 55% of U.S. adults

regularly watch their local television news.

In 1997, 46% of Americans said they did not trust the media when it comes to reporting the news fully, accurately

and fairly. In a 2007 poll of 1010 adults nationwide, 525 stated they did not trust the media. At the =0.05 level of

significance, is there evidence to support the claim that the percentage of Americans that do not trust the media to

report fully and accurately has increased since 1997?(Source: Gallup Poll)

525

The sample proportion is = = 0.52 .

1010

0.520.46

The test statistic is = = 3.83

0.46(0.54)1010

Since this is a right-tailed test, we determine the Since this is a right-tailed test, the P-value is the area

critical value at the = 0.05 level of significance to under the standard normal distribution to the right of

be 1.645. Since the test statistic, = 3.83, is the test statistic = 3.83. That is, P-value =

greater than the critical value 1.645, we reject the null ( > 3.83) 0. Since the P-value is less than

hypothesis. the level of significance, we reject the null hypothesis.

There is sufficient evidence at the = 0.05 level of significance to conclude that the percentage of Americans that

do not trust the media to report fully and accurately has increased since 1997.

For the sampling distribution of to be approximately normal, we require (1 ) be at least 10. What if this

requirement is not met?

In 2006, 10.5% of all live births in the United States were to mothers under 20 years of age. A sociologist claims

that births to mothers under 20 years of age is decreasing. She conducts a simple random sample of 34 births and

finds that 3 of them were to mothers under 20 years of age. Test the sociologists claim at the = 0.01 level of

significance.

Solution:

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

From the null hypothesis, we have = 0.105. There were 34 mothers sampled, so (1 ) = 3.57 < 10.

Thus, the sampling distribution of is not approximately normal.

Let represent the number of live births in the United States to mothers under 20 years of age. We have x=3

successes in n=34 trials so = 3/34 = 0.088. We want to determine whether this result is unusual if the

population mean is truly 0.105. Thus,

= 0.51

The P-value = 0.51 is greater than the level of significance so we do not reject H0. There is insufficient evidence to

conclude that the percentage of live births in the United States to mothers under the age of 20 has decreased below

the 2006 level of 10.5%.

The standardized test statistic is z. =

In Words In Symbols

1. State the claim mathematically and verbally. State H0 and Ha

Identify the null and alternative hypotheses.

2. Specify the level of significance Identify

3. Sketch the sampling distribution

4. Determine any critical value(s) Use Table

5. Determine any rejection region(s).

6. Find the standardized test statistic

=

7. Make a decision to reject or fail to reject the null If z is in the rejection region, reject H0. Otherwise, fail

hypothesis to reject H0

8. Interpret the decision in the context of the original

claim

This section presents methods for testing a claim about a population mean, given that the population standard

deviation is a known value. This section uses the normal distribution with the same components of hypothesis tests

that were introduced in Section 8-2.

The value of the population standard deviation is known.

Either or both of these conditions is satisfied: The population is normally distributed or n > 30.

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

=

Using -values to Make a Decision

To use a -value to make a conclusion in a hypothesis test, compare the -value with .

1) If , then reject 0 .

2) If > , then fail to reject 0 .

The P-value for a hypothesis test is P = 0.0237. What is your decision if the level of significance is

1. = 0.05? Solution: Because 0.0237 < 0.05, we should reject the null hypothesis.

2. = 0.01? Solution: Because 0.0237 > 0.01, we should fail to reject the null hypothesis.

After determining the hypothesis tests standardized test statistic and the test statistics corresponding area, do one of

the following to find the P-value.

Find the P-value for a left-tailed hypothesis test with a standardized test statistic of = 2.23. Decide whether to

reject 0 when the level of significance is = 0.01.

Table A-2, the area corresponding to = 2.23 is 0.0129,

which is the area in the left tail. So, the -value for a left-

tailed hypothesis test with a standardized test statistic of

= 2.23 is = 0.0129.

than 0.01, you fail to reject 0

Find the P-value for a two-tailed hypothesis test with a test statistic of = 2.14. Decide whether to reject H0 if the

level of significance is = 0.05.

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

= 2 (Area in tail of test statistic)

Using Table A-2, the area corresponding to = 2.14 is 0.9838.

The area in the right tail is 1 0.9838 = 0.0162. So,

the -value for a two-tailed hypothesis test with a standardized

test statistic of = 2.14 is = 2(0.0162) = 0.0324

Interpretation: Because the -value of 0.0324 is less than 0.05,

we reject 0 .

We will now learn how to perform a hypothesis test for a mean m assuming the standard deviation is known.

When is known, you can use a -test for the mean. To use the -test, you need to find the standardized value for

the test statistic .

(Sample mean) (Hypothesized mean)

=

Standard error

- TEST FOR A MEAN

The z-test for a mean is a statistical test for a population mean. The test statistic is the sample mean . The

standardized test statistic is

= Standardized test statistic for ( known)

when these conditions are met:

1. The sample is random.

2. At least one of the following is true: The population is normally distributed or for any population when the

sample size n is at least 30.

Recall that is the standard error of the mean,

GUIDELINES Using -Values for a z -Test for a Mean ( Known)

In Words In Symbols

1. State the claim mathematically and verbally. Identify the null State H0 and Ha

and alternative hypotheses.

2. Specify the level of significance. Identify .

3. Determine the standardized test statistic.

=

4. Find the area that corresponds to z.

5. Find the P-value. Use Table A-2

a) For a left-tailed test, P = (Area in left tail).

b) For a right-tailed test, P = (Area in right tail).

c) For a two-tailed test, P = 2(Area in tail of test statistic).

Reject H0 if P-value . Otherwise, fail

6. Make a decision to reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis.

to reject H0.

7. Interpret the decision in the context of the original claim

In auto racing, a pit stop is where a racing vehicle stops for new tires, fuel, repairs, and other mechanical

adjustments. The efficiency of a pit crew that makes these adjustments can affect the outcome of a race. A pit crew

claims that its mean pit stop time (for 4 new tires and fuel) is less than 13 seconds. A random sample of 32 pit stop

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

times has a sample mean of 12.9 seconds. Assume the population standard deviation is 0.19 second. Is there enough

evidence to support the claim at = 0.01? Use a -value.

Solution:

Because is known ( = 0.19), the sample is random, and = 32 30, we can use the -test.

The claim is the mean pit stop time is less than 13 seconds. So, the null and alternative hypotheses

are 0 : 13 seconds and : < 13 seconds. (Claim)

The level of significance is = 0.01. The standardized test statistic is

12.9 13

= = 2.98

0.1932

Using Table A-2, the area corresponding to = 2.98 is 0.0014. Because this test is a left-tailed test, the -value

is equal to the area to the left of = 2.98, as shown in the figure below. So, = 0.0014. Because the -value

is less than = 0.01, we reject the null hypothesis.

level of significance to support the claim that the

mean pit stop time is less than 13 seconds.

According to a study, the mean cost of bariatric (weight loss) surgery is $21,500. You think this information is

incorrect. You randomly select 25 bariatric surgery patients and find that the mean cost for their surgeries is $20,695.

From past studies, the population standard deviation is known to be $2250 and the population is normally distributed.

Is there enough evidence to support your claim at = 0.05? Use a -value.

Solution

Because is known ( = $2250), the sample is random, and the population is normally distributed, you can use

the -test. The claim is the mean is different from $21,500. So, the null and alternative hypotheses are

2069521500

= = 1.79

225025

In Table A-2, the area corresponding to = 1.79 is 0.0367. Because the test is a two-tailed test, the P-value is

equal to twice the area to the left of = 1.79, = 2(0.0367) = 0.0734 > 0.05.

Because the -value is greater than = 0.05, you fail to reject the null hypothesis.

Interpretation There is not enough evidence at the 5% level of significance to support the claim that the mean cost

of bariatric surgery is different from $21,500.

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

We have a sample of 106 body temperatures having a mean of 98.20F. Assume that the sample is a simple random

sample and that the population standard deviation is known to be 0.62F. Use a 0.05 significance level to test the

common belief that the mean body temperature of healthy adults is equal to 98.6F. Use the P-value method.

98.298.6

= = 6.64

0.62106

This is a two-tailed test and the test statistic is to the left of the center, so the P-value is twice the area to the left of

= 6.64. We refer to Table A-2 to find the area to the left of = 6.64 is 0.0001, so the P-value is

2(0.0001) = 0.0002.

significance level of = 0.05, we reject the null

hypothesis. There is sufficient evidence to conclude

that the mean body temperature of healthy adults

differs from 98.6F.

The volume of a stock is the number of shares traded in the stock in a day. The mean volume of Apple stock in

2007 was 35.14 million shares with a standard deviation of 15.07 million shares. A stock analyst believes that the

volume of Apple stock has increased since then. He randomly selects 40 trading days in 2008 and determines the

sample mean volume to be 41.06 million shares. Test the analysts claim at the = 0.10 level of significance using

P-values.

Solution

The analyst wants to know if the stock volume has increased. This is a right-tailed test with

0 : m = 35.14 versus : m > 35.14(Claim)

= 0.10;

41.0635.14

= = 2.48

15.0740

( > 2.48) = 0.0066.

Since the P-value= 0.0066 is less than the level of

significance, 0.10, we reject the null hypothesis.

There is sufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis and to conclude that the mean volume of Apple stock is

greater than 35.14 million shares.

One advantage of using P-values over the classical approach in hypothesis testing is that P-values provide

information regarding the strength of the evidence. Another is that P-values are interpreted the same way regardless

of the type of hypothesis test being performed. the lower the P-value, the stronger the evidence against the

statement in the null hypothesis.

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

Another method to decide whether to reject the null hypothesis is to determine whether the standardized test statistic

falls within a range of values called the rejection region of the sampling distribution.

A rejection region (or critical region) of the sampling distribution is the range of values for which the null

hypothesis is not probable. If a standardized test statistic falls in this region, then the null hypothesis is rejected. A

critical value 0 separates the rejection region from the nonrejection region.

Note that a standardized test statistic that falls in a rejection region is considered an unusual event.

Finding Critical Values in a Normal Distribution

1. Specify the level of significance .

2. Decide whether the test is left-, right-, or two-tailed.

3. Find the critical value(s) . If the hypothesis test is

a. left-tailed, find the -score that corresponds to an area of ,

b. right-tailed, find the -score that corresponds to an area of 1 ,

c. two-tailed, find the -score that corresponds to and 1 .

4. Sketch the standard normal distribution. Draw a vertical line at each critical value and shade the rejection

region(s).

Example 8: Finding Critical Values

Find the critical value and rejection region for a two-tailed test with = 0.05.

Solution:

and to the right of 0 = 1.96.

To use a rejection region to conduct a hypothesis test, calculate the standardized test statistic, z. If the standardized

test statistic

1. is in the rejection region, then reject H0.

2. is not in the rejection region, then fail to reject H0.

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

In Words In Symbols

1. State the claim mathematically and verbally. Identify the null and State H0 and Ha.

alternative hypotheses.

2. Specify the level of significance. Identify .

3. Sketch the sampling distribution.

4. Determine the critical value(s). Use Table A-2

5. Determine the rejection region(s).

6. Find the standardized test statistic. =

7. Make a decision to reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis. If is in the rejection region, then reject

8. Interpret the decision in the context of the original claim. 0 . Otherwise, fail to reject 0 .

Example 9: Testing with Rejection Regions

Employees in a large accounting firm claim that the mean salary of the firms accountants is less than that of its

competitors, which is $45,000. A random sample of 30 of the firms accountants has a mean salary of $43,500 with

a standard deviation of $5200. At = 0.05, test the employees claim.

Solution:

Rejection Region:

H0: $45,000 and Ha: < $45,000; = 0.05

4350045000

Test Statistic: = = 1.58

520030

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that the mean cost of raising a child from birth to age 2 in a rural area is

$10,460. You believe this value is incorrect, so you select a random sample of 900 children (age 2) and find that the

mean cost is $10,345 with a standard deviation of $1540. At = 0.05, is there enough evidence to conclude that

the mean cost is different from $10,460? Rejection Region:

Solution:

1034510460

Test Statistic: = = 2.24

1540900

Decision: Reject H0

At the 5% level of significance, you have enough evidence to conclude the mean cost of raising a child from birth to

age 2 in a rural area is significantly different from $10,460.

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

We have a sample of 106 body temperatures having a mean of 98.20F. Assume that the sample is a simple random

sample and that the population standard deviation is known to be 0.62F. Use a 0.05 significance level to test the

common belief that the mean body temperature of healthy adults is equal to 98.6F. Use the traditional method

98.298.6

= = 6.64

0.62106

We now find the critical values to be = 1.96 and = 1.96. We would reject the null hypothesis, since the test

statistic of = 6.64 would fall in the critical region.

There is sufficient evidence to conclude that the mean body temperature of healthy adults differs from 98.6F.

A can of 7-Up states that the contents of the can are 355 ml. A quality control engineer is worried that the filling

machine is miscalibrated. In other words, she wants to make sure the machine is not under- or over-filling the cans.

She randomly selects 9 cans of 7-Up and measures the contents. She obtains the following data.

Is there evidence at the = 0.05 level of significance to support the quality control engineers claim? Prior

experience indicates that s = 3.2ml.

Solution: The quality control engineer wants to know if the mean content is different from 355 ml. Since the

sample size is small, we must verify that the data come from a population that is approximately normal with no

outliers.

356.667355

The sample mean is calculated to be 356.667. The test statistic is then = 1.56

3.29

Since this is a two-tailed test, we determine the critical values at the = 0.05 level of significance to be =

1.96 and = 1.96.

Since the test statistic, = 1.56, is less than the critical value 1.96, we fail to reject the null hypothesis.

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

There is insufficient evidence at the = 0.05 level of significance to conclude that the mean content differs from

355 ml.

We have a sample of 106 body temperatures having a mean of 98.20F. Assume that the sample is a simple random

sample and that the population standard deviation s is known to be 0.62F. Use a 0.05 significance level to test the

common belief that the mean body temperature of healthy adults is equal to 98.6F. Use the confidence interval

method.

For a two-tailed hypothesis test with a 0.05 significance level, we construct a 95% confidence interval. Use the

methods of Section 7-2 to construct a 95% confidence interval:

We are 95% confident that the limits of 98.08 and 98.32 contain the true value of , so it appears that 98.6 cannot be

the true value of .

A can of 7-Up states that the contents of the can are 355 ml. A quality control engineer is worried that the filling

machine is miscalibrated. In other words, she wants to make sure the machine is not under- or over-filling the cans.

She randomly selects 9 cans of 7-Up and measures the contents. She obtains the following data.

Test the hypotheses at the = 0.05 level of significance by constructing a 95% confidence interval about m, the

population mean can content. Prior experience indicates that s = 3.2ml.

Solution:

3.2 3.2

Lower bound: 356.667 1.96 = 354.58 and Upper bound: 356.667 + 1.96 = 358.76

9 9

We are 95% confident that the mean can content is between 354.6 ml and 358.8 ml. Since the mean stated in the

null hypothesis is in this interval, there is insufficient evidence to reject the hypothesis that the mean can content is

355 ml.

If, under a given assumption, there is an extremely small probability of getting sample results at least as extreme

as the results that were obtained, we conclude that the assumption is probably not correct.

When testing a claim, we make an assumption (null hypothesis) of equality. We then compare the assumption

and the sample results and we form one of the following conclusions:

If the sample results (or more extreme results) can easily occur when the assumption (null hypothesis) is

true, we attribute the relatively small discrepancy between the assumption and the sample results to chance.

If the sample results cannot easily occur when that assumption (null hypothesis) is true, we explain the

relatively large discrepancy between the assumption and the sample results by concluding that the

assumption is not true, so we reject the assumption.

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Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

In many real-life situations, the population standard deviation in not known. When either the population has a

normal distribution or the sample size is at least 30, you can still test the population mean m. To do so, you can use

the -distribution with 1 degrees of freedom. The methods of this section use the Student distribution

introduced earlier.

Requirements for Testing Claims About a Population Mean (with Not Known)

2. The value of the population standard deviation is not known.

3. Either or both of these conditions is satisfied: The population is normally distributed or n > 30.

Test Statistic for Testing a Claim About a Mean (with Not Known)

1. The Student t distribution is different for different sample sizes (see Figure 7-5 in Section 7-4).

2. The Student t distribution has the same general bell shape as the normal distribution; its wider shape reflects the

greater variability that is expected when s is used to estimate .

3. The Student t distribution has a mean of = 0 (just as the standard normal distribution has a mean of = 0).

4. The standard deviation of the Student t distribution varies with the sample size and is greater than 1 (unlike the

standard normal distribution, which has = 1).

5. As the sample size gets larger, the Student distribution gets closer to the standard normal distribution.

Choosing between the Normal and Student t Distributions when Testing a Claim about a Population Mean . Use

the Student t distribution when is not known and either or both of these conditions is satisfied: The population is

normally distributed or > 30.

3. Find the critical value(s) using Table A-3 in the row with 1 degrees of freedom. If the hypothesis test

is

Page 33

Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

c. two-tailed, use Two Tails, column with a negative and a positive sign.

Find the critical value t0 for a left-tailed test given = 0.05 and n = 21.

Solution:

0 = 1.725

Find the critical value t0 for a right-tailed test with = 0.01 and = 17.

Solution:

= 0.01

Because the test is right-tailed, the critical value is positive.

0 = 2.583 0 = 2.583

Find the critical values t0 and t0 for a two-tailed test given = 0.05 and n = 26.

Solution:

Page 34

Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

In Words In Symbols

Identify the null and alternative hypotheses.

2. Specify the level of significance. Identify

3. Identify the degrees of freedom and sketch the sampling distribution. d.f. = n 1

4. Determine any critical value(s). Use Table A-3

5. Determine any rejection region(s).

6. Find the standardized test statistic. =

7. Make a decision to reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis. If t is in the rejection region, reject H0.

8. Interpret the decision in the context of the original claim. Otherwise, fail to reject H0.

Data Set 13 in Appendix B of the text includes weights of 13 red M&M candies randomly selected from a bag

containing 465 M&Ms. The weights (in grams) have a mean = 0.8635 and a standard deviation = 0.0576 g.

The bag states that the net weight of the contents is 396.9 g, so the M&Ms must have a mean weight that is 396.9/

465 = 0.8535 g in order to provide the amount claimed. Use the sample data with a 0.05 significance level to test

the claim of a production manager that the M&Ms have a mean that is actually greater than 0.8535 g. Use the

traditional method.

Solution: The sample is a simple random sample and we are not using a known value of . The sample size is

n = 13 and a normal quartile plot suggests the weights are normally distributed.

H0: = 0.8535 and H1: > 0.8535; = 0.05, = 0.8635, = 0.0576, and = 13.

0.8635 0.8535

= = 0.626

0.057613

Because the test statistic of = 0.626 does not fall in the critical region, we fail to reject H0. There is not sufficient

evidence to support the claim that the mean weight of the M&Ms is greater than 0.8535 g.

A used car dealer says that the mean price of a 2005 Honda Pilot LX is at least $23,900. You suspect this claim is

incorrect and find that a random sample of 14 similar vehicles has a mean price of $23,000 and a standard deviation

of $1113. Is there enough evidence to reject the dealers claim at = 0.05? Assume the population is normally

distributed.

H0: $23,900

= 0.05

df =14 1 = 13

Page 35

Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

2300023900

Test Statistic: = = 3.026

111314

Decision: Reject H0

At the 0.05 level of significance, there is enough evidence to reject the claim that the mean price of a 2005

Honda Pilot LX is at least $23,900

An industrial company claims that the mean pH level of the water in a nearby river is 6.8. You randomly select 19

water samples and measure the pH of each. The sample mean and standard deviation are 6.7 and 0.24, respectively.

Is there enough evidence to reject the companys claim at = 0.05? Assume the population is normally distributed.

H0: = 6.8

Ha: 6.8

= 0.05

df =19 1 = 18

6.76.8

Test Statistic: = = 1.816

0.2419

At the 0.05 level of significance, there is not enough evidence to reject the claim that the mean pH is 6.8.

P-Value Method

The American Automobile Association claims that the mean daily meal cost for a family of four traveling on

vacation in Florida is $118. A random sample of 11 such families has a mean daily meal cost of $128 with a

standard deviation of $20. Is there enough evidence to reject the claim at = 0.10? Assume the population is

normally distributed.

Page 36

Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

At the 0.10 level of significance, there is not enough evidence to reject the claim that the mean daily meal cost

for a family of four traveling on vacation in Florida is $118.

Assuming that neither software nor a TI-83/84 Plus calculator is available, use Table A-3 to find a range of values

for the P-value corresponding to the given results.

a) In a left-tailed hypothesis test, the sample size is n = 12, and the test statistic is = 2.007.

Solution: The test is a left-tailed test with test statistic t = 2.007, so the P-value is the area to the left of 2.007.

Because of the symmetry of the t distribution, that is the same as the area to the right of +2.007. Any test

statistic between 2.201 and 1.796 has a right-tailed P- value that is between 0.025 and 0.05. We conclude that

0.025 < P-value < 0.05.

b) In a right-tailed hypothesis test, the sample size is n = 12, and the test statistic is = 1.222.

Solution: The test is a right-tailed test with test statistic t = 1.222, so the P-value is the area to the right of

1.222. Any test statistic less than 1.363 has a right-tailed P-value that is greater than 0.10. We conclude that P-

value > 0.10.

c) In a two-tailed hypothesis test, the sample size is n = 12, and the test statistic is = 3.456.

Solution: The test is a two-tailed test with test statistic t = 3.456. The P-value is twice the area to the right of

3.456. Any test statistic greater than 3.106 has a two-tailed P-value that is less than 0.01. We conclude that

P-value < 0.01.

Assume the resting metabolic rate (RMR) of healthy males in complete silence is 5710 kJ/day. Researchers

measured the RMR of 45 healthy males who were listening to calm classical music and found their mean RMR to be

5708.07 with a standard deviation of 992.05.

At the =0.05 level of significance, is there evidence to conclude that the mean RMR of males listening to calm

classical music is different than 5710 kJ/day?

Solution:

The level of significance is = 0.05

The sample mean is = 5708.07 and the sample standard deviation is = 992.05. The test statistic is

5708.07 5710

= 0.013

992.0545

Page 37

Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

Traditional Method

1. Since this is a two-tailed test, we determine the critical values at the =0.05 level of significance with

1 = 45 1 = 44 degrees of freedom to be approximately 0.025 = 2.021 and 0.025 = 2.021.

2. Since the test statistic, = 0.013, is between the critical values, we fail to reject the null hypothesis.

P-value

1. Since this is a two-tailed test, the P-value is the area under the t-distribution with 1 = 45 1 = 44

degrees of freedom to the left of 0.025 = 0.013 and to the right of 0.025 = 0.013. That is, P-value =

( < 0.013) + ( > 0.013) = 2 ( > 0.013). 0.50 < -value.

2. Since the P-value is greater than the level of significance (0.05<0.5), we fail to reject the null hypothesis.

There is insufficient evidence at the = 0.05 level of significance to conclude that the mean RMR of males

listening to calm classical music differs from 5710 kJ/day.

In real life, it is important to produce consistent, predictable results. For instance, consider a

company that manufactures golf balls. The manufacturer must produce millions of golf balls, each

having the same size and the same weight. There is a very low tolerance for variation. For a normally

distributed population, you can test the variance and standard deviation of the process using the chi-

square distribution with n - 1 degrees of freedom.

2. The population has a normal distribution. (This is a much stricter requirement than the requirement of a

normal distribution when testing claims about means.)

Chi-Square Distribution

()

Test Statistic: = where = sample size, 2 = sample variance, and 2 =population

variance(given in null hypothesis.)

All values of 2 are nonnegative, and the distribution is not symmetric (see Figure 8-13, following).

Page 38

Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

There is a different distribution for each number of degrees of freedom (see Figure 8-14, above).

The critical values are found in Table A-4 using n 1 degrees of freedom.

3. The critical values for the 2-distribution are found in Table A-4. To find the critical value(s) for a

c. two-tailed test, use the values that corresponds to d.f. and and d.f. and 1 .

Find the critical 2-value for a left-tailed test when = 11 and = 0.01.

Solution:

1 = 1 0.01 = 0.99.

Page 39

Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

Find the critical 2-value for a two-tailed test when n = 13 and = 0.01.

Solution:

The areas to the right of the critical values

are 12=0.005 and 1 12=0.995

From Table A-4, the critical values are 2 = 3.074 and 2 = 28.299

In Words In Symbols

1. State the claim mathematically and verbally. Identify the null and State H0 and Ha

alternative hypotheses.

Identify

2. Specify the level of significance.

distribution.

()

5. Determine any rejection region(s). =

If 2 is in the rejection region, reject

7. Make a decision to reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis. H0. Otherwise, fail to reject H0.

For a simple random sample of adults, IQ scores are normally distributed with a mean of 100 and a standard

deviation of 15. A simple random sample of 13 statistics professors yields a standard deviation of s = 7.2. Assume

that IQ scores of statistics professors are normally distributed and use a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that

= 15.

() ().

Standardized Test Statistic: = = 2.765

Page 40

Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

The critical values of 4.404 and 23.337 are found in Table A-4, in the 12th row (degrees of freedom = 1 =

13 1 = 12) in the column corresponding to 0.975 and 0.025. Because the test statistic is in the critical region, we

reject the null hypothesis.

There is sufficient evidence to warrant rejection of the claim that the standard deviation is equal to 15.

Example 4: Hypothesis Test for the Population Variance

A dairy processing company claims that the variance of the amount of fat in the whole milk processed by the

company is no more than 0.25. You suspect this is wrong and find that a random sample of 41 milk containers has a

variance of 0.27. At = 0.05, is there enough evidence to reject the companys claim? Assume the population is

normally distributed.

Solution:

Rejection Region:

2

H0: 0.25

= 0.05

df =41 1 = 40

() ()(.)

Test Statistic: = = 43.2

.

Decision: Fail to reject H0

At the 5% level of significance, there is not enough evidence to reject the companys claim that the variance of the

amount of fat in the whole milk is no more than 0.25.

Example 5: Hypothesis Test for the Standard Deviation

A restaurant claims that the standard deviation in the length of serving times is less than 2.9 minutes. A random

sample of 23 serving times has a standard deviation of 2.1 minutes. At = 0.10, is there enough evidence to

support the restaurants claim? Assume the population is normally distributed.

Solution:

Rejection Region:

H0: 2.9 min

= 0.10 = 0.10

df =23 1 = 22

Page 41

Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

() ()(.)

Test Statistic: = = 11.536

.

Decision: Reject H0

At the 10% level of significance, there is enough evidence to support the claim that the standard deviation for the

length of serving times is less than 2.9 minutes.

Example 6: Hypothesis Test for the Population Variance

A sporting goods manufacturer claims that the variance of the strength in a certain fishing line is 15.9. A random

sample of 15 fishing line spools has a variance of 21.8. At = 0.05, is there enough evidence to reject the

manufacturers claim? Assume the population is normally distributed.

Solution:

H0: 2 = 15.9 Rejection Region:

Ha: 2 15.9 1

2

= 0.025

= 0.05

df =15 1 = 14

() ()(.)

Test Statistic: = = 19.194

.

Decision: Fail to reject H0

At the 5% level of significance, there is not enough evidence to reject the claim that the variance in the strength of

the fishing line is 15.9.

Example 7:

A can of 7-Up states that the contents of the can are 355 ml. A quality control engineer is worried that the filling

machine is miscalibrated. In other words, she wants to make sure the machine is not under- or over-filling the cans.

She randomly selects 9 cans of 7-Up and measures the contents. She obtains the following data.

351 360 358 356 359 358 355 361 352

In section 8.4, we assumed the population standard deviation was 3.2. Test the claim that the population standard

deviation, s, is greater than 3.2 ml at the =0.05 level of significance.

Solution:

2. The level of significance is = 0.05.

3. From the data, the sample standard deviation is computed to be = 3.464.

() ()(.)

The test statistic is = = 9.374

.

Classical Approach

Since this is a right-tailed test, we determine the critical value at the = 0.05 level of significance with

2

9 1 = 8 degrees of freedom to be 0.05 = 15.507.

2

Since the test statistic, = 9.374 , is less than the critical value, 15.507, we fail to reject the null

hypothesis.

P-Value Approach

Since this is a right-tailed test, the P-value is the area under the 2-distribution with 9-1=8 to the right of

the test statistic. That is, P-value = (2 > 9.37) > 0.10.

Since the P-value is greater than the level of significance, we fail to reject the null hypothesis.

There is insufficient evidence at the = 0.05 level of significance to conclude that the standard deviation of the

can content of 7-Up is greater than 3.2 ml.

Page 42

Ch 8 Hypothesis Testing

Page 43

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