Sie sind auf Seite 1von 66
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 1
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 1
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 1
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 1
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 1
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 1
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 1
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 1

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 1
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 1

1

DISCLOSURES

THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED IN THIS PRESENTATION, WHICH IS BEING PROVIDED ON A CONFIDENTIAL BASIS, ARE CURRENT OPINIONS OF SOCIAL CAPITAL AS MAY 8, 2017 ONLY, AND MAY CHANGE AS SUBSEQUENT CONDITIONS VARY. ANY PROJECTIONS, MARKET OUTLOOKS OR ESTIMATES IN THIS PRESENTATION ARE FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS AND ARE BASED UPON CERTAIN ASSUMPTIONS. OTHER EVENTS WHICH WERE NOT TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT MAY OCCUR AND MAY SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT RETURN OR PERFORMANCE. ANY PROJECTIONS, OUTLOOKS OR ASSUMPTIONS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED TO BE INDICATIVE OF THE ACTUAL EVENTS WHICH WILL OCCUR.

THIS PRESENTATION MAY CONTAIN “FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS” WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995, AS

AMENDED. BECAUSE SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INVOLVE RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES, ACTUAL RESULTS MAY DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM ANY EXPECTATIONS, PROJECTIONS OR PREDICTIONS MADE OR IMPLICATED IN SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. INVESTORS ARE THEREFORE CAUTIONED NOT TO PLACE UNDUE RELIANCE ON SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS.

IN CONSIDERING THE PRIOR PERFORMANCE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION, INVESTORS SHOULD BEAR IN MIND THAT PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS, AND THERE CAN BE NO ASSURANCE THAT ANY ACCOUNTS MANAGED BY SOCIAL CAPITAL WILL ACHIEVE RESULTS COMPARABLE TO THOSE OF ANY PRIOR OR EXISTING FUND. RECIPIENTS SHOULD NOT ASSUME THAT SECURITIES IDENTIFIED IN THIS PRESENTATION, OR OTHERWISE RELATED TO THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION, ARE, HAVE BEEN OR WILL BE, INVESTMENTS HELD BY ACCOUNTS MANAGED BY SOCIAL CAPITAL.

THESE MATERIALS DO NOT PURPORT TO BE ALL-INCLUSIVE OR TO CONTAIN ALL THE INFORMATION THAT AN INVESTOR MAY DESIRE. THESE MATERIALS ARE MERELY FOR DISCUSSION ONLY AND MAY NOT BE RELIED UPON FOR MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN MAY BE MODIFIED OR SUPPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME.

INVESTORS SHOULD NOT CONSTRUE THE CONTENTS OF THIS PRESENTATION OR ANY PRIOR OR SUBSEQUENT COMMUNICATION FROM SOCIAL CAPITAL OR ANY OF ITS REPRESENTATIVES OR AFFILIATES, AS LEGAL, TAX, OR INVESTMENT ADVICE.

THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AN OFFER TO SELL OR THE SOLICITATION OF ANY OFFER TO BUY WHICH MAY ONLY BE MADE AT THE TIME A QUALIFIED OFFEREE RECEIVES

A CONFIDENTIAL PRIVATE OFFERING MEMORANDUM OR CONFIDENTIAL EXPLANATORY MEMORANDUM (EACH, AN “OFFERING MEMORANDUM”) DESCRIBING THE

OFFERING AND RELATED SUBSCRIPTION AGREEMENT AND IN THE CASE OF ANY INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE DESCRIPTIONS OR TERMS IN THIS PRESENTATION AND THE OFFERING MEMORANDUM, THE APPLICABLE OFFERING MEMORANDUM SHALL CONTROL. THIS PRESENTATION IS QUALIFIED IN ITS ENTIRETY BY REFERENCE TO SUCH DOCUMENTATION, INCLUDING THE RISK FACTORS AND POTENTIAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST DISCLOSURES SET FORTH THEREIN. AN INVESTMENT IN ACCOUNTS MANAGED BY SOCIAL CAPITAL IS SPECULATIVE AND INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK.

WHILE ALL THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION IS BELIEVED TO BE ACCURATE, SOCIAL CAPITAL MAKES NO EXPRESS WARRANTY AS TO THE COMPLETENESS OR ACCURACY NOR CAN IT ACCEPT RESPONSIBILITY FOR ERRORS APPEARING IN THE PRESENTATION. IN PARTICULAR, CERTAIN FACTUAL

INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN HAS BEEN OBTAINED FROM PUBLISHED SOURCES PREPARED BY OTHER PARTIES AND SOCIAL CAPITAL HAS NOT INDEPENDENTLY

VERIFIED SUCH INFORMATION

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

2

DISCLOSURES

SLIDE 5:

LOGOS PRESENTED REPRESENT THE PAST EMPLOYERS OF SELECT PAST AND PRESENT EMPLOYEES, ENTREPRENEURS IN RESIDENCE AND BOARD PARTNERS OF SOCIAL CAPITAL.

SLIDE 8:

40% INCEPTION TO DATE ANNUALIZED RETURN, THE INCEPTION TO DATE ANNUALIZED RETURN PRESENTED REPRESENTS THE RATE OF RETURN ON AMAZON FROM ITS MAY 3, 2016 CLOSING PRICE TO THE CLOSING PRICE AS OF MAY 1, 2017.

SLIDE 62 & 63:

2021 (1.25%) AND 2022 (2.375%) AND $360 AND $327 CONVERSION PRICE, REPRESENTS THE ANNUAL INTEREST RATE ON TESLA’S CONVERTIBLE SENIOR NOTES BASED ON MATURITY DATES OF 2021 AND 2022, ALONG WITH THEIR CONVERSION PRICE. TO LEARN MORE ON THE CONVERTIBLE SENIOR NOTES, PLEASE REFER TO THE PROSPECTUS, WHICH CAN BE FOUND ON HTTPS://WWW.SEC.GOV/ARCHIVES/EDGAR/DATA/1318605/000119312517086226/D535687D424B5.HTM.

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

3

To advance humanity by solving the world’s hardest problems

SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DETAIL

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

4

We are technologists and

entrepreneurs who have helped build

and scale many of today’s best

companies:

helped build and scale many of today’s best companies: SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DETAIL ©
helped build and scale many of today’s best companies: SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DETAIL ©
helped build and scale many of today’s best companies: SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DETAIL ©
helped build and scale many of today’s best companies: SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DETAIL ©
helped build and scale many of today’s best companies: SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DETAIL ©
helped build and scale many of today’s best companies: SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DETAIL ©
helped build and scale many of today’s best companies: SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DETAIL ©
helped build and scale many of today’s best companies: SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DETAIL ©
helped build and scale many of today’s best companies: SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DETAIL ©
helped build and scale many of today’s best companies: SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DETAIL ©
helped build and scale many of today’s best companies: SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DETAIL ©
helped build and scale many of today’s best companies: SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DETAIL ©
helped build and scale many of today’s best companies: SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DETAIL ©
helped build and scale many of today’s best companies: SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DETAIL ©
helped build and scale many of today’s best companies: SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DETAIL ©
helped build and scale many of today’s best companies: SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DETAIL ©

SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DETAIL

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

5

SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DETAIL © 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 6

SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DETAIL

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

6

10x in 10y

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

7

ITD: +40%

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

8

So far, so good

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

9

Let’s talk about a controversial company

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

10

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 11

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

11

Model S: gobbling up market share

Model S Luxury Sedan Market Share

Model S Luxury Car Market Share

32% 25% 18% 17% 4% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
32%
25%
18%
17%
4%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

12

Model X: gobbling up market share

Model X Luxury SUV Market Share

Model X Luxury SUV Market Share

9% 8% 6% 6% 3% 1% Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17
9%
8%
6%
6%
3%
1%
Q4'15
Q1'16
Q2'16
Q3'16
Q4'16
Q1'17

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

13

Model 3: 400,000 deposits = $16bn sales

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

14

Model 3: already impacting incumbents

400k

BMW 3 Series Demand 142k 141k 106k -- -- 2014 2015 2016
BMW 3 Series
Demand
142k
141k
106k
--
--
2014
2015
2016

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

BMW 3 Series US SalesDemand 142k 141k 106k -- -- 2014 2015 2016 © 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

Model 3 DepositsDemand 142k 141k 106k -- -- 2014 2015 2016 © 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

15

But…

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

16

Selling cars today is just a start

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

17

Selling pickups and semis tomorrow

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

18

Autonomy and fleets in the near future

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

19

“Please note that using a self-driving

Tesla

for car sharing and ride hailing for friends

and family is fine, but doing so for revenue purposes will only be permissible on the Tesla Network, details of which

will be released next year.”

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

20

Acquired SolarCity

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

21

Building multiple Gigafactories

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

22

Building machine that builds machines

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

23

Sustainable energy independence

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

24

And that’s just through Q1 2017

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

25

These are all extremely capital intensive

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

26

~$20bn+ capex

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

27

So we modeled the business…

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

28

#REF!

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

29

Product and technology first

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

30

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 31

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

31

Step 1:

Launch a revolutionary product

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

32

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 33

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

33

Step 2:

Sell into a fragmented, undifferentiated

market

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

34

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 35

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

35

Step 3:

Expand product scope + vertically

integrate

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

36

Software (2007+) Retail (2007+) Developer Platform (2008+) Semis (2010+) © 2017 Social Capital. All rights

Software

(2007+)

Software (2007+) Retail (2007+) Developer Platform (2008+) Semis (2010+) © 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

Retail

(2007+)

Software (2007+) Retail (2007+) Developer Platform (2008+) Semis (2010+) © 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

Developer Platform

(2008+)

Software (2007+) Retail (2007+) Developer Platform (2008+) Semis (2010+) © 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

Semis

(2010+)

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

Platform (2008+) Semis (2010+) © 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. OTA OS Upgrades (2012+) Payments

OTA OS Upgrades

(2012+)

Platform (2008+) Semis (2010+) © 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. OTA OS Upgrades (2012+) Payments

Payments

(2014+)

37

Step 4:

Expand into adjacent markets

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

38

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 39
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 39
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 39

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 39

39

Result:

Redefine the market

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

40

Commanding share

Global Unit Market Share (Phones > $300)

Global Unit Market Share (Phones > $300)

47%

44% 41% 36% 35% 29% 23% 19% 11% 4% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
44%
41%
36%
35%
29%
23%
19%
11%
4%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

41

Pricing power

Smartphone ASPs

Smartphone ASPs

$716 $712 $703 $689 $686 $680 $669
$716
$712
$703
$689
$686
$680
$669
$376 $358 $320 $276 $237 $215 $212 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 AAPL
$376
$358
$320
$276
$237
$215
$212
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
AAPL
Rest of industry

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

42

And all the profits

Global Smartphone Profit Share

Global Smartphone Profit Share

104% 92% 92% 78% 73% 73% 68% 61% 46% 15% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
104%
92%
92%
78%
73%
73%
68%
61%
46%
15%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

43

Jun-13

Jun-14

Jun-07

Jun-16

Jun-10

Jun-08

Jun-15

Jun-09

Jun-12

Sep-14

Sep-07

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-10

Sep-16

Sep-08

Mar-17

Mar-07

Sep-09

Mar-13

Dec-07

Sep-15

Mar-15

Mar-10

Mar-16

Mar-08

Dec-14

Dec-06

Dec-16

Dec-13

Dec-08

Mar-09

Sep-12

Dec-10

Dec-09

Dec-15

Mar-12

Dec-12

Jun-11

Sep-11

Mar-11

Dec-11

10x in 10y

$754B

$723B $625B $190B
$723B
$625B
$190B

$73B

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

44

Step 1:

Launch a revolutionary product

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

45

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 46

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

46

Step 2:

Sell into a fragmented, undifferentiated

market

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

47

NA market share by model

Ford F - Series PU 5% Dodge Ram PU 3% Chevrolet Silverado PU 3% Nissan
Ford F - Series PU
5%
Dodge Ram PU
3%
Chevrolet Silverado PU
3%
Nissan Rogue
3%
Toyota Camry
2%
Honda CR- V
2%
2%
2%
2%
Nissan Sentra
1%
Jeep Grand Cherokee
1%
Ford Fusion
1%
Chevrolet Cruze
1%
GMC Sierra PU
1%

1%

Ford Explorer

Chevrolet Equinox

2%

Toyota RAV4

Honda Civic

2%

Toyota Corolla / Matrix

Nissan Altima

2%

Ford Escape

2%

Honda Accord

2%

Hyundai Elantra

Rest

60%

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

48

Step 3:

Expand product scope + vertically

integrate

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

49

Battery Software (2012+) (2012+) Manufacturin g (2012+) Retail / Charging (2013+) © 2017 Social Capital.
Battery Software (2012+) (2012+) Manufacturin g (2012+) Retail / Charging (2013+) © 2017 Social Capital.

Battery

Software

(2012+)

(2012+)

Battery Software (2012+) (2012+) Manufacturin g (2012+) Retail / Charging (2013+) © 2017 Social Capital. All

Manufacturin

g

(2012+)

Software (2012+) (2012+) Manufacturin g (2012+) Retail / Charging (2013+) © 2017 Social Capital. All rights
Software (2012+) (2012+) Manufacturin g (2012+) Retail / Charging (2013+) © 2017 Social Capital. All rights

Retail /

Charging

(2013+)

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

(2012+) Manufacturin g (2012+) Retail / Charging (2013+) © 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. Autopilot

Autopilot

(2015+)

50

Step 4:

Expand into adjacent markets

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

51

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 52
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 52
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 52
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 52

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

52

Result:

Redefining the market?

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

53

TSLA on the same path as AAPL

Sales ($bn)

Sales ($bn)

$24

$19 $9 $8 $3 $2 v1 v2 v3
$19
$9
$8
$3
$2
v1
v2
v3

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

iPhoneAAPL Sales ($bn) Sales ($bn) $24 $19 $9 $8 $3 $2 v1 v2 v3 © 2017

($bn) Sales ($bn) $24 $19 $9 $8 $3 $2 v1 v2 v3 © 2017 Social Capital.

S/

X /

3

54

Tesla can take 5% of the global auto market

5%

0.13% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
0.13%
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

55

The business of selling cars

Global Car Units (mm) 80 % TSLA Market Share 5%
Global Car Units (mm)
80
% TSLA Market Share
5%

TSLA Units (mm)

Average ASP

Average GM%

Average GP per Car

Gross Profit ($bn)

Operating Profit ($bn)

4

$50,000

20%

$10,000

$40

$28

EBIT Multiple TSLA Auto Enterprise Value ($bn) 12x $336
EBIT Multiple
TSLA Auto Enterprise Value
($bn)
12x
$336

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

56

Selling cars: $336bn (7x)

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

57

Plans and investments for:

Autonomous cars Transportation as a service Energy generation Energy storage

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

58

How can we participate in another potential 10x in 10y?

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

59

How can we share in the upside but protect downside?

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

60

2022 Convertible Bonds

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

61

2.375% and $327 conversion price

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

62

No money lost as long as Tesla is worth at least $15bn

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

63

And all the upside above $327 per share

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

64

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 65

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

65

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 66
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 66
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 66
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 66
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 66
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 66
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 66
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 66

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved.

© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 66
© 2017 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 66

66