Probabilistic Models for Corrosion

in Structural Reliability
Robert E. Melchers
Centre for Infrastructure
Performance and Reliability,
Department of Civil, Surveying and
Environmental Engineering,
The University of Newcastle,
Australia 2308
e-mail: Rob.Melchers@newcastle.edu.au
AssessmentPart 1: Empirical
Models
Reliability theory for the assessment of existing structures for remaining safe life must
consider the probabilistic deterioration of structural strength as well as multiple applied
loadings. This requires good-quality models of deterioration processes. Models for cor-
rosion, which have been applied in the literature for marine applications, are reviewed. It
is shown that these usually are statistical only, using data pooled from many sources. They
also use little or no theoretical insight. As a result, they provide poor-quality mean-value
information and very high statistical uncertainties. The conclusion is that better modeling
is required and that this involves much better understanding of the factors influencing
marine corrosion. These factors are reviewed briefly, with particular emphasis on marine
immersion corrosion of mild steel. DOI: 10.1115/1.1600467

1 Introduction
Reliability assessment for existing structures is a matter of in-
creasing importance both for offshore and land-based structural
systems and for shipping. Since such structures tend to deteriorate
with time, the reliability assessment must consider the time-
dependent reduction of material strength properties R(t) as well
as it time varying uncertainty as represented by the probability
density function f R (r,t). In addition, of course, the reliability as-
sessment must consider the applied loading Q and its related un-
certainty as represented by the probability density function f Q (q).
For the simplest reliability problem, the representation in Fig. 1 is
indicative. It is seen that the probability density function of the
resistance f R (r,t) moves, with time t, in the direction of lower
mean strength and that it becomes flatter i.e., the uncertainty is
increased. It is immediately evident that the structural reliability
is reduced with time. Of interest in its own right, structural reli-
ability assessment is also an important component of risk-based
inspection and maintenance planning techniques being developed
by a number of authors 1,2.
In contrast to fatigue, only limited attention has been given to
modeling the time-dependent loss of material strength due to cor-
rosion. This is somewhat surprising since corrosion is important
for many older structural systems exposed to harsh environmental
conditions such as at-sea or along the coast. Measures such as
cathodic protection and surface coatings are known to be not al-
ways wholly effective nor sufficiently robust, particularly in the
splash zone and at structural details.
For the assessment of structural condition, much attention is
being given to the application of indirect methods to obtain indi-
cations of possible corrosion. Some, such as the measurement of
corrosion potentials, provide only the potential for corrosion. Oth-
ers, such as impedance measurements, are very difficult to use in
field conditions and are of dubious reliability. Moreover, they are
expensive to use and require access to the region of interest. In
addition, there is the problem of extrapolating from highly local-
ized data points to larger structural elements such as ships and
offshore structures.
For design, a common practical approach is to allow for a sac-
rificial amount of materiala corrosion allowance, quoted in
Contributed by the OOAE Division for publication in the JOURNAL OF OFF-
SHORE MECHANICS AND ARCTIC ENGINEERING. Manuscript received, January 9,
2002; final revision, January 2003. Associate Editor: A. Naess.
terms of a constant corrosion rate. For ships, a 10% plate thick-
ness allowance for wastage is typical in Classification Society
rules for commercial vessels. For naval vessels, such allowance
typically is 0%. These allowances do not provide for localized
corrosion, for example, as might occur at welds or other locations
of nonuniform materials.
None of these approaches are helpful in estimating the remain-
ing safe life of an existing structure. Typically, a much higher
level of accuracy is required, both for predictions of structural
safety and for prediction of likely future corrosion. This is the
main focus of the present paper, which reviews the attempts that
have been made to develop models for marine corrosion. As will
be seen, the information available to structural engineers about
marine corrosion tends to be anecdotal, not well organized, and of
limited use for simple applications 3. It is also generally insuf-
ficient for reliability analyses purposes.
The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 is a short review of
the theory of structural reliability estimation, highlighting the im-
portance of good-quality deterioration models. Section 3 describes
briefly the various forms of corrosion of practical interest and the
various environments that must be considered. Section 4 reviews
statistical data for corrosion of ships and data trends derived from
corrosion coupon testing and outlines some statistical models.
Section 5 provides a critique of these efforts, reviews the factors,
which should be considered and suggests the approach that should
be used for the development of better-quality probabilistic corro-
sion models based on understanding of the physiochemical pro-
cesses. Part 2 of the paper deals with the latter aspect.
2 Structural Reliability Estimation
2.1 General Comments. The theory of structural reliability
was developed originally as an attempt to rationalize the setting of
factors of safety in structural engineering 4. Because of the con-
siderable simplifications to the theory, the probability of failure
most commonly estimated with such procedures may not reflect
reality and is sometimes termed a nominal or formal prob-
ability. This point is important for management decision-making,
such as in maintenance scheduling for existing structural systems,
since for optimal decisions it is desirable to have measures of
probability as realistic as possible 5.
In addition, it is important to note that the theory of structural
reliability as it currently exists can be used only in part to describe

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Fig. 1 Effect of strength deterioration on failure probability
estimate schematic
the safety of a structure. Matters such as ignorance, negligence,
and human error usually are not considered. This may be impor-
tant in management decisions.
2.2 Basic Structural Reliability Problem. There are two
key elements in analyzing structural reliabilitythe loads acting
on the system and the resistance of the system to support them.
For offshore platforms, ships at sea, etc., the loads principally will
be forces generated due to wave action and ship motion. Such
forces will be generated globally, such as those leading to hull
girder bending, and locally, such as those at side and bottom pan-
els, at hatches, etc. The forces will be a function of the wave
height and, hence, sea-state, and can arise also from wind condi-
tions. For ships, bow-area loads generated under high-speed
operationsthe so-called slamming forcesmay need to be con-
sidered. There may be effects also from differential temperatures.
In general, there will be several possible loading systems acting
on the structure; most of these will be functions of time and,
hence, will be best described by a random process. A typical re-
alization of one such process is shown in Fig. 2.
Various forms of deterioration such as fatigue and corrosion
will cause the strength limit state function G Q,R(t) to exhibit
deterioration with time. In general, there will be uncertainty both
about the precise strength and the rate of strength loss with time,
as shown schematically in Fig. 2.
For stochastic processes the probability that the structure will
fail in a given time period 0,t L can be stated as the probability
that the structure will fail when it is first loaded, denoted p f (0,t L ),
plus the probability that it will fail subsequently, given that it has
not failed earlier. This can be expressed as:
p f t p f 0,t L 1p f 0,t L . 1e v t (1)
Fig. 2 Realization of a continuous random load process and a
potential exceedence of the deteriorating structural resistance
Rt
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where v is the upcrossing rate. The expression is approximate
because the second term is based on the assumption that failure
events are rare, and that such events therefore can be represented
by a Poisson distribution.
In principle, the probability of failure can be estimated from
Equation 1 provided the outcrossing rate can be estimated. The
most common approach is to assume that the random load process
Q(t) continues indefinitely and has a stationary statistical nature
e.g., in the simplest case, the means and variance does not change
with time. When there are several such loads, the rate at which
they would be expected to cross-out of the safe domain can be
estimated from:
v n Xx f X x dx
E X
safe domain
(2)
where XX(t) is a vector process and ( ) denotes the positive
component only. The term E(X n Xx)x n n(t).x(t)0 repre-
sents the outward normal component of the vector process at the
domain boundary. This result can be extended readily to allow for
gradual deterioration of structural strength with time with the re-
sult that v and p f (0,t L ) both become time dependent. However, as
the structural resistance becomes lower the Poisson approximation
used for Equation 1 becomes gradually less applicable. It follows
that accurate representation of deterioration is important in assess-
ing the validity of application of Equation 2.
Since the above formulation is not always easy to apply in
practice simplified and asymptotic methods such as the FOSM/
FORM time-invariant techniques are often applied. Except for
certain special problems, these estimate the probability of failure
p T approximately. The estimate will approach p T as the models
for technical reliabilityincluding those for loads, resistances,
and structural dimensionsbecome more refined. It can be esti-
mated from 4:
p T
G(x)0
f X x dx (3)
where f X(x) is the joint probability density function in the vector
of random variables X which now incorporates Q(t) as random
variables and R(t)) and where G(x)0 is the failure region.
The accuracy of using Equation 3 depends on the description of
the random variables, and this may depend on interpretation and
modeling of observations, giving rise to uncertainties in the proba-
bilistic model. In addition, there will be added uncertainty due to
the way structures are modeled for analysis, leading to additional
uncertainties in the stress analysis 6. In the case of ship hulls, for
example, this type of approach has been used by a number of
authors although the nominal nature of the reliability estimate has
not always been evident, including, for example, Guedes-Soares
and Ivanov 7 and Ayyub, et al. 8, who considered ship hull
girder bending. Paik, et al. 9, considered double-bottomed ves-
sels, while Shi 10 considered several ductile collapse modes
associated with failure of the hull in association with corrosion
and Paik 11 considered combined longitudinal bending and
shear. An example of the combined effect of corrosion and fatigue
on ship hull reliability has been given by Guedes-Soares and Gar-
batov 12 using certain simplifications in the modeling of corro-
sion and the reliability estimation procedures.
From the above brief discussion, it should be evident that irre-
spective of the precise approach adopted for the reliability analy-
sis, a critical issue for proper time-dependent structural reliability
analysis is the estimation of R(t) to a sufficiently high quality.
Since R(t) depends directly on material loss due to corrosion, it is
appropriate also to have good-quality models for corrosion. The
present paper reviews the models given in the literature and their
bases. It will become apparent that many of the models rather
indiscriminately use pooled data from a variety of sources, leading
to low predictive power and high degrees of uncertainty.
NOVEMBER 2003, Vol. 125 265
 Table 2 Corrosion environments

Atmospheric Mixed Immersion

unpolluted rural splash zone marine
industrial tidal zone brackish
general freshwater
open air
vented space
enclosed space

to a greater or lesser degree in all longer term marine corrosion.

Hence, uniform corrosion is a convenient but not necessarily ac-
curate description. Although for mild- and low-alloy steels, corro-
sion usually approximates a near-uniform loss.
Uniform corrosion is of most interest for overall degradation of
structural strength, as in plates and structural members. Pitting
corrosion is important for containment, such as for pressure ves-
sels and to a lesser extent shipping and offshore platforms. Crev-
ice corrosion is relevant mainly to stainless steels at fittings, bolts,
etc. Galvanic corrosion caused by differences in material proper-
ties around the heat-affected zone HAZ of welds may be impor-
tant for strength considerations of local details and for overall
strength of stiffened plates. It has been shown that the material
properties themselves, such as elastic moduli and yield strength,
are not influenced by the corrosion of adjacent material. Table 1
sets out the main types of corrosion, summarizes some character-
istics, and indicates where it may be an issue for ships and off-
shore structures.
It is usual also to distinguish the different environments in
Fig. 3 Corrosion types which corrosion can occur. These usually are categorized as in
Table 2.

3 Corrosion Types 4 Corrosion Statistics

Perhaps surprisingly, there is only a limited body of organized
theory to represent the expected corrosion losses of metal under
given environmental conditions 13. Much of the conventional
wisdom deals with results from site-specific testing and curve-
fitting. Moreover, there is only limited information relevant to
steel corrosion in seawater 3. Much of this is for short-term tests
under laboratory conditions. For these, mostly artificial seawater
or worse, salt water was used, thereby not replicating the bio-
logical component of real seawater, increasingly recognized as an
important factor in marine corrosion 14.
Corrosion of metals can occur in various forms. Fig. 3 gives a
schematic summary of typical corrosion patterns.
So-called uniform corrosion is the nominal loss of thickness
of material as derived from weight-loss measurements. No ac-
count is taken of limited pitting corrosion, even though it occurs
4.1 Ships and Offshore Structures. Classification societies
and a number of navies gather plate-thickness measurements as
estimates for corrosion loss typically using ultrasonics. They do
so on a regular basis as part of the continued certification of ves-
sels. However, very little of the data has been published. Much of
the information is in paper form and not easily reducible or ac-
cessible. For commercial vessels, the information is usually con-
sidered to be commercial-in-confidence. But perhaps more im-
portant still is the lack of a framework for proper analysis of the
data. This is particularly interesting where corrosion is high and
not very uniform, since spot-checks, as typical of certification
procedures, may not measure the same location in subsequent
spot-checks.
In addition, careful consideration must be given to the interpre-
tation of the measurement techniques on which the data is based.

Table 1 Main types of corrosion relevant to ships and offshore structures

Type of corrosion Material Feature Problem areas Effect

general mild, high tensile roughly uniform plating reduction in plate
or uniform steels over extended thickness,
areas structural
capacity
pitting limited for mild highly localized plating, local local reduction in
steels, mainly penetration, often details thickness and
high tensile and with clusters of stress
stainless steels pits intensification,
possibly leakage
crevice mainly stainless highly localized at connections, localized stress
and some high elongated under washers, intensifcation,
tensile steels penetration etc. local failure
galvanic dissimilar metals localized different metals localized severe
in contact in contact, material loss
variation in metal
composition,
HAZs for welds

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 Fig. 4 Typically observed corrosion rates, large-showing scat-
ter based on 20
Typically, ultrasonic measurements are made to determine re-
sidual plate thickness. But such measurements have inherent mea-
surement errors due to: 1 instrument error and 2 location error.
As an example of the first, readings resulting in negative corrosion
i.e., plate-thickness increase have been recorded not infre-
quently. Location error becomes significant if the corrosion of
plates is not wholly uniform and the precise location for readings
at different points in time is exactly defined.
Despite these problems, some overall statistics about corrosion
for ships have been given by Akita 15 and by Arita, et al. 16. ample, observations for oil tankers show that in some cases the
They used pooled data, obtained from a wide variety of sources,
for ships of considerably different ages and with considerably
different operational characteristics and maintenance practices.
Somewhat more detailed, statistical, characteristics of corrosion
material losses obtained from Japanese classification society data
has been given by Akita 17, Ohyagi 18, Emi, et al. 19, Yama- ered acceptable by responsible ship operators or owners.
moto, et al. 20 and, for Soviet countries by Ivanov 21. Typical
results are shown in Fig. 4.
Typically, the rates are assumed constant and were estimated
entirely from observations made as part of normal ship surveys.
Other studies, based on the same type of survey data, quote the
mean and coefficients of variations for corrosion rates for each
of the primary members in a ship hull 22. Figure 5 shows
an example.
It is usual for the coefficient of variation to increase with time
Fig. 6. It has been suggested, on the basis of Japanese data, that
the corrosion rate for primary members can be described by a
Weibull distribution 20. This is a useful starting point for a sta-
tistical model based only on pooled empirical data. It aggregates
data from various sources without regard to operational, mainte-
nance, and environmental conditions. As expected, the reported
corrosion rates show a high degree of scatter. Similar findings
were reported by Paik, et al. 23, in estimating statistical models
for the corrosion rates for bulk carriers. They found that the aver-
age corrosion rate showed a typical coefficient of variation of
0.52.0.
Local structural details are known to be prone to corrosion,
particularly in the welded or heat-affected zone HAZ of plate
stiffeners Fig. 7. However, there appears to have been no corro-
sion data reported for such details. One reason for this might be
that all reported data appears to be derived entirely from classifi-
cation society surveys and these tend to concentrate on plate
thickness diminution. Similarly, there appears to be no reports of
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Fig. 5 Typical corrosion rates for tanker ships. Notation: x
yz: xmean rate of corrosion in mmyear for plate and stiff-
ener flange, yditto for web stiffener web, zcoefficient of
variation.
systematically obtained data about pitting corrosion, atmospheric
corrosion, or waterline or splash-zone corrosion for ships.
Fundamental theoretical considerations suggest that corrosion
should decrease with time 24. This is indeed evident in the typi-
cal data noted above, but it is not always in evidence. For ex-
rate of corrosion appears to increase with time 15,25. The reason
for this appears to be related to cyclic stress conditions and spal-
ling off of corrosion products, but detailed investigations have not
been reported. Clearly, this would be a factor only for advanced
states of corrosionwell beyond what normally would be consid-
It will be noted from the above that corrosion usually is repre-
sented as a given rate of material loss. This implies a constant rate
of corrosion. Guidance for designers and others also implies a
linear rate. For example, Table 3 shows a sample of recommended
corrosion allowances 25. As will be discussed in more detail
below, a constant corrosion rate does not accord with corrosion
theory or with observations.
4.2 Other Data. Apart from the information reported above
for ships, there is relatively little data for the corrosion of steel
structures. Some data exists for steel bridges 26, even though the
experimental determination of corrosion rates for mild and other
steels has been of interest for a long time. Most other field data are
derived from studies using corrosion coupons. This is reflected in
handbooks 3,13. Mostly, this is for relatively short-term studies.
There are very few long-term field studies. Most of the data is for
coastal marine atmospheric corrosion and some for coastal marine
immersion corrosion. There is very little reported for the marine
splash zone or for rates measured at sea. There are also a number
of laboratory studies, even though their relevance to field condi-
tions is difficult to ascertain. The available data derived from cou-
pons are reviewed below.
4.2.1 Immersion Corrosion. Mild- and low-alloy steels im-
mersed in seawater tend to corrode uniformly. Since seawater is
remarkably uniform from location to location 13, it might be
expected that for at-sea conditions there would be a general simi-
larity between observations. That this is not so can be seen in the
NOVEMBER 2003, Vol. 125 267
 Fig. 6 Variation in wastage of a steel plate with increased length of exposure schematic

immersion corrosion data to 1994 for mild-steel coupons pooled shown in Fig. 8. It is evident that there is still a large degree of
from all available sources. The data showed a large degree of scatter in the data. This is considered to be due to: not all envi-
scatter. After detailed examination of the data, this was attributed ronmental and material variables having been properly isolated; a
mainly to seawater temperature differences. An approximate tem- preponderance of short-term data, often from laboratory trials us-
perature correction was applied 27, using estimates for mean ing artificial seawater; and a lack of an appropriate theoretical
seawater temperatures at each site. This produced the points model on which to base data comparisons 28.
The data of Fig. 8 can be used to construct an empirical statis-
tical model using the power law format commonly used in atmo-
spheric corrosion modeling work. After calibration, this estimated
the mean corrosion depth as 27:
m d 0.084t 0.823 (4)
with a standard deviation function given by,
s d 0.056t 0.823 (5)
A log-normal probability distribution model for the corrosion
depth was found to be consistent with the data. However, the
coefficients and the exponents of Equations 4 and 5 were ex-
tremely sensitive to data points at longer exposure times. This
suggests that fundamentally the model is not a good one.
4.2.2 Splash-Zone Marine Corrosion. There are very few
studies of splash-zone corrosion reported in the literature. Figure 9
shows a summary of pooled data from a variety of sources in
terms of equivalent metal loss versus duration of exposure. As for
immersion corrosion, there has been rather poor control and re-
porting of environmental conditions.
4.2.3 Atmospheric Marine Corrosion. In contrast to the ear-
lier cases, there is a considerable body of data and modeling ef-
forts for atmospheric corrosion, although rather little is specifi-
Fig. 7 Localized corrosion at weld heat-affected zone HAZ cally for marine corrosion. Most effort has gone into industrial
between stiffener and plate atmospheres 28,29,30. The data and modeling specifically for
Table 3 Typical corrosion rates for oil tankers
marine corrosion have been summarized recently 31,32.
4.2.4 Pitting and Crevice Marine Corrosion. As noted, pit-
Segregated Ballast Tank Corrosion Rates
ting corrosion is not particularly critical for the strength of mild-
Corrosion and low-alloy structural members. However, it may be critical for
Location Rate mm/yr Remarks containment. There is an extensive literature on pitting corrosion
Deck plating 0.100.50 Uncoated in general. A summary of data and models for marine corrosion is
Deck longitudinals 0.251.00 Uncoated available 33,34. For stainless steels exposed long term to immer-
Side shell plating 0.06 0.10 Uncoated sion conditions, crevice corrosion can be a significant problem.
Side shell 0.100.25 Uncoated
longitudinals
Bottom shell plating 0.04 0.10 Uncoated 5 Development of Better Models
Transverse bulkhead 0.300.50 Uncoated
plating
The above shows that attempts, to date, at developing models
Transverse bulkhead 0.200.60 Uncoated for corrosion have been based largely on empirical relationships
vertical stiffeners developed from pooling of data from a variety of sources. As
demonstrated clearly in Figs. 8 and 9, simply collecting data and

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 Fig. 8 Compilation of immersion corrosion data from all available data sources to 1994 with 5 and 95 percentile bands
26

pooling it without detailed analysis results in statistical models
with very large degrees of uncertainty and with consequent low
predictive capability. This should not be unexpected, yet it is the
approach most commonly adopted. Unfortunately, such models
are unlikely to be of much practical use except for the most gen-
eral, broad-brush decisions.
Moreover, as these pooled data statistical models are based on
historical data, they may be inapplicable to more modern applica-
tions with different operational and maintenance practices. For
example, much of the ship data for bulk carriers applies to vessels
that did not have coatings for their ballast tanks, a practice that is
no longer condoned. Hence, the historical, statistical information,
while interesting, is unlikely to be applicable to new situations nor
is it capable of generalization.
To improve this situation, it is considered that the approach that
must be followed is to develop models based firmly on established
physiochemical concepts for corrosion. Such models will need to
be calibrated to actual field data. For this, two possibilities exist
subjective supplementation of the existing information or com-
missioning of new tests, under better control conditions. The latter
is an expensive and long-term process as illustrated in the release
of the complete five-year test results of the 1980s ASTM

Fig. 9 Collected data for splash-zone corrosion data corrected for temperature with 5 and 95 percentile bands 26

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 Table 4 Environmental factors in marine immersion corrosion based on Schumacher, 1979

Effect on Initial Effect on Steady State

Factor Corrosion Rate Corrosion Rate Influenced by
Biological
bacterial none reduces and probably temperature of seawater
controls rate NaCl concentration
biomass/plant life water velocity
animal life
suspended solids
pollutant type and level
percentage wetting
Chemical
O2 directly proportional none, if corrosion seawater temperature
controlled by O2
NaCl
transfer rate
CO2 little effect little effect
NaCl inversely proportional proportional ? unimportant in open oceans
fresh water inflows
effect of biological activity
pH little effect ? little effect ?
carbonate solubility little effect little effect
pollutants varies varies geographical location
Physical
temperature directly proportional proportional ? geographical location
pressure not significant for shallow
waters
water velocity little effect little effect geographical location
suspended solids little effect, if any geographical location
percentage wetting proportional for tidal proportional for tidal location, weather patterns
and splash zones and splash zones

round-robin worldwide test program for copper-bearing mild
steel, 90/10 copper-nickel, and aluminum 35. This work makes
an important contribution to the data available for marine immer-
sion corrosion. It provides information about uniform corrosion
and about pitting and has relatively good information about criti-
cal environmental factors.
Importantly, laboratory data are unlikely to be very helpful for
the calibration of models although it may be important for scien-
tific understanding. Typically, such tests have used either saline
water or artificial seawater. Importantly, these mixtures do not
replicate truly seawater conditions because one of the most sig-
nificant ingredients, bacteriological and biological matter, is not
present.
The initial framework for the development of marine corrosion
models has been outlined 36. This requires: 1 detailed under-
standing of factors influencing corrosion and 2 reference back to
fundamental corrosion mechanics. Table 4 summarizes the factors
that normally are considered to influence marine immersion
corrosion.
Because of the fundamental nature of these requirements, it has
been necessary to move away from corrosion observations on ac-
tual structures and the concomitant large uncertainties in the data
to a study of the behavior of corrosion coupons. It should then be
possible to relate these findings back to the original structure, see
Fig. 10. An example of this for the corrosion of holds in bulk-
carrier ships is available 37.
6 Discussion
Although the discussion here has been confined largely to cor-
rosion as an independent deterioration mechanism, in practice,
corrosion is not an independent issue for remaining life assess-
ments of aging systems. Corrosion interacts with applied stresses,
fatigue, mechanical damage, and, most importantly, with protec-
tive systems such as cathodic protection, paint coatings, and man-
agement practices. The interaction with each of these phenomena
or materials is a matter that cannot be ignored in practice, even
though the interactions are not fully understood in all cases. There
is considerable ongoing research of a fundamental nature into the
mechanics of impressed current cathodic protection and its influ-
ence on corrosion losses under a variety of marine conditions
38. Eventually, this will need to be translated into engineering
design rules and guides for the protection of aging infrastructure,
including probabilistic models. However, the first priority from a
probabilistic modeling viewpoint must be to develop better mod-
els for the seemingly most elementary problemimmersion cor-
rosion under at-sea conditions.
It should be clear that the development of such probabilistic
corrosion models must follow the development of deterministic,
physiochemical corrosion models. These must reflect a reasonable
degree of physical reality if they are to have predictive power
beyond the data from which they were calibrated. In this sense,
they might be viewed as engineering models rather than scien-
tific ones, or phenomenological models, conveying the essence
of behavior, if not its complete details. The background and ap-
proach for the development of such models is discussed in Part 2
of this paper.

7 Conclusion
The structural reliability theory necessary for the assessment of
ageing infrastructure systems and for their maintenance planning
was outlined and it was argued that there is an urgent need for
Fig. 10 Relationship between structural and coupon speci- better-quality models to represent adequately the deterioration
men corrosion. mechanism of corrosion. Attention was given to marine corrosion

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 and to the efforts that have been made to develop statistical mod-
els. This showed that marine corrosion is not a linear function of
time, as is often assumed. It also showed that the variability in the
data is very large and that the variability increased with time.
Further, the statistical models are sensitive to new data. All this
suggests that a more fundamental approach to corrosion modeling
is required. It must be based on a good understanding of corrosion
mechanics. This will require calibration to field data and this, in
turn, will require new data collection with better recording of
environmental influences or supplementation of existing corrosion
data.
Acknowledgments
This paper is based on the first part of the keynote paper
Probabilistic Models of Corrosion for Reliability Assessment
and Maintenance Planning, presented at OMAE-2001 in Rio de
Janiero during June 2001. The helpful comments of the reviewers
is acknowledged. Mr Robert Jeffrey contributed to the experimen-
tal work and prepared relevant figures, Dr. M. Ahammed prepared
some figures and researched some site conditions and Dr. N.
Korzahkia provided Russian translation. Their contributions are
gratefully acknowledged. In addition the author is indebted to a
large number of researchers and others who contributed to the
provision of specific data for field experiments conducted in vari-
ous parts of the world. The work was supported by the Australian
Research Council under grants A89801268 and A00104742.
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