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1. Bangs and bucks; North Korea's nuclear programme.................................................................................. 1

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Bangs and bucks; North Korea's nuclear programme

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Abstract:
Ever since North Korea first tested a nuclear bomb, in 2006, it has repeatedly thumbed its nose at those
seeking to halt its nuclear programme. Three more tests followed, in 2009, 2013 and January this year. Sooner
or later, North Korea was expected to conduct a fifth test. It came sooner than expected: on September 9th, a
mere eight months after the previous test. It was also much bigger, with an explosive yield roughly twice the
previous one, at 10-12 kilotons. Both these facts are alarming. North Korea is making much faster progress than
many had hoped. Siegfried Hecker, an American nuclear scientist who has visited nuclear facilities in the North,
says that, at the current rate, it may have the capacity to send a nuclear-tipped missile to the American
mainland in as few as five years.

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America is looking for new ways to curb the North's nuclear ambitions
EVER since North Korea first tested a nuclear bomb, in 2006, it has repeatedly thumbed its nose at those
seeking to halt its nuclear programme. Three more tests followed, in 2009, 2013 and January this year. Sooner
or later, North Korea was expected to conduct a fifth test.
It came sooner than expected: on September 9th, a mere eight months after the previous test. It was also much
bigger, with an explosive yield roughly twice the previous one, at 10-12 kilotons. Both these facts are alarming.
Three of the North's five tests have occurred under the leadership of Kim Jong Un (pictured), who came to
power in 2011 on the death of his father, Kim Jong Il. Mr Kim has also conducted ballistic-missile tests at a
frenzied pace: 22 so far this year. That is more than in the entire 18 years of his father's rule.
Mr Kim's boast in January that he had tested a hydrogen bomb is seen as bluster. Many of the missiles have
fizzled after take-off. Still, one was successfully launched in August from a submarine, and three, fired
simultaneously this month into the Sea of Japan (East Sea), all landed close together. And the latest test may
well have been of a device small enough to be fitted onto a variety of missiles, as the regime proudly claimed.
North Korea, in short, is making much faster progress than many had hoped. Siegfried Hecker, an American
nuclear scientist who has visited nuclear facilities in the North, says that, at the current rate, it may have the
capacity to send a nuclear-tipped missile to the American mainland in as few as five years.
The UN Security Council swiftly denounced the latest test and began discussing new sanctions, six months
after it imposed the "toughest ever" penalties on North Korea. Yet North Korea is not alone in thinking efforts to
tighten sanctions are "laughable". It has proven adept at skirting them, thanks largely to China, its ally and
biggest trading partner, which has enforced them only laxly. China opposes its neighbour's bomb-building, yet is
reluctant to punish it seriously. Though China agreed to a ban on North Korea's exports of coal (which earned it
$1 billion last year, a third of its total export revenue), anecdotal evidence suggests cargo inspections at its
border have been patchy. The prices of imported goods in North Korea have remained stable, says Stephan
Haggard of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, an American think-tank, suggesting that the latest
round of sanctions has not led to a shortage of foreign currency.
A senior American official says that North Korea's fifth test is a "game-changer": whereas past negotiations with
China had focused on improving enforcement, there is now talk of "new measures altogether". Yet it is hard to
imagine what more China would sign up to. It was China that insisted on the biggest loophole in the current
regime, which allows exports of coal for "livelihood purposes". Moreover, China is cross about America's
installation of a missile-defence system known as THAAD in South Korea. The system is intended to stop a

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nuclear attack from the North, but China sees it as a threat to its own nuclear weapons. Evan Medeiros,
formerly a member of Barack Obama's National Security Council, says the battery's deployment is an indication
of a "hardening of views" about the North. America, he says, is likely to start meting out stiffer punishments,
even if that risks friction with China. Already Hillary Clinton, the Democratic candidate for president, has called
for a "rethinking" of strategy on the North.
One step could be to expand unilateral sanctions that America adopted earlier this year, despite Chinese
protests, that compel banks to freeze the assets of anyone doing business with North Korea in certain sectors.
Remittances from North Koreans working abroad could be seized; by some estimates Pyongyang grabs as
much as $2 billion of these a year. A former American official with long experience of North Korea suggests that
even riskier options may be considered, such as cyberattacks and information warfare. Hackers might push
subversive messages onto North Korea's 3m-odd mobile phones. More vigorous efforts might also be made to
recruit North Korean defectors.
Yet odious as Mr Kim's regime is, China is not alone in fearing the consequences of squeezing it. Sanctions, an
American official said recently, are "designed to bring the North to its senses, not to its knees".
Illustration
Caption: Another rib-tickler from the God-king

Subject: Nuclear weapons; International relations; Weapons testing;

Location: North Korea

Classification: 1210: Politics & political behavior; 9179: Asia & the Pacific

Publication title: The Economist; London

Volume: 420

Issue: 9007

Pages: 38-39

Publication year: 2016

Publication date: Sep 17, 2016

Dateline: SEOUL

Section: Asia

Publisher: The Economist Intelligence Unit N.A., Incorporated

Place of publication: London

Country of publication: United Kingdom

Publication subject: Business And Economics--Economic Systems And Theories, Economic History, Business
And Economics--Economic Situation And Conditions

ISSN: 00130613

CODEN: ECSTA3

Source type: Magazines

Language of publication: English

Document type: News

ProQuest document ID: 1820114028

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Document URL: https://search.proquest.com/docview/1820114028?accountid=12665

Copyright: (Copyright 2016 The Economist Newspaper Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Last updated: 2016-09-26

Database: ABI/INFORM Collection

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