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Blackberry:
(Will you change your name back to Research in
Motion PLEASE)
The downfall of Blackberry (NASDAQ:BBRY) as a handset maker is
legendary and will be studied for years. After numerous attempts to
revive handsets, CEO John Chen decided to focus on what Blackberry
does best -- secured software -- and look what is now under the hood.
The arrival of QNX SDP 7.0 aligns with the automotive industrys
shift towards 64-bit computing as automakers seek fast processing
speeds to deliver highly responsive, intelligent and connected
digital cockpits. Availability of QNX SDP 7.0 on 64-bit Qualcomm
Snapdragon 820A processors with an integrated Snapdragon X12
LTE modem, virtualization capability and high performance
heterogeneous compute engine enables automakers to realize this
next-generation digital cockpit experience.
Patrick Little, senior vice president and general manager, Automotive,
Qualcomm Technologies, Inc.
He ended the article with the thought that all investors should heed:
These thoughts were validated in a recent tech article about the race for
the auto operating system:
The Blackberry bear case argues that its installed base will soon be
disrupted into oblivion by the big guys Apple and Google. But the
dynamics of the competitive landscape doesnt always work out that
way.
Mobileyes 16 million installed base was an asset Intel couldnt pass up.
And a raft of credible potential competitors hardly suppressed its value
to an acquirer with lots of cash. We think the parallels to Blackberry are
compelling. Given its market-leading automotive installed base, its IP
portfolio, its background in secure computing, its having quenched its
cash burn, and added a fresh billion in cash for R&D, Blackberry isnt
going away. Those 60 million QNX installs will get monetized one way
or another.
Citron believes if anything this validates Blackberry position and makes
it ripe as an acquisition target for countless suitors. Qualcomm recently
purchased NXP for its exposure in Automotive, Internet of Things,
security and networking
https://www.qualcomm.com/news/releases/2016/10/27/qualcomm-acquire-nxp
http://www.zdnet.com/article/blackberrys-radar-internet-of-things-meets-trucking-system-critical-
to-turnaround/
Most importantly on the last conference call one question sticks out that
was asked by an RBC analyst:
Paul Treiber
Just one follow-up to that. In regards to other automakers, I
mean, what do you think the likelihood of winning
agreements of a similar magnitude of Ford?
John Chen
Likely.
These are all potential catalysts that can add value to an already IP rich
company.
The risk involved with this investment is that the company does not
execute or that autonomous driving or the IoT does not evolve as
expected.
However, the downside seems very limitedIn the unlikely event that
RADAR is a complete zero, and BBRY cannot bump its ASPs in the car, or
launch a credible security service, we still estimate that at 2.5x EV/Sales
we would get a target price of US $8.30.
The full monetization story of QNX and RADAR will take pages to tell,
but were best outlined by longtime Macquarie Blackberry analyst Gus
Papageorgiou when he stated that the stock has the potential to hit $45
if executed properly yes $45:
http://business.financialpost.com/fp-tech-desk/blackberry-stock-up-after-analyst-predicts-stock-
price-could-quadruple-by-2020