28/02/2017

GUEST LECTURE: Politics

The Future of Jihadism in Europe

Thomas Hegammer: Oxford graduate, Science Po, Stanford, research position in

Norway. Published extensively on Jihad and on substate violence in Middle East and
Europe.

Talk 3 things: brief history Jihadism in Europe in past 20 years, highlight any causes by
which Jihadism evolves in Europe, where we are going (underlined by terrorist attacks
in the past few years in Paris, Germany).

Between 2014 and 2016 more people were killed by militant islamists in Europe than
in all previous years combined.

Introductory anecdote about transitioning from student life to professional career: left
Oxford spring 2001, he was sick of research and had no plans to do a PhD. Went back
to Norway, found a job at the Norwegian Defense Establishment in Oslo. Worked on
the bin Laden network. After 9/11, his view of what he wanted to do changed. His
mission was to find what was driving this phenomenon.

Jihadism in Europe is a new thing, goes back to mid-1990s (little over 2 decades old).
Three major phases:

1) 1994-2000: Europe was a support ground for Jihadi groups in the Middle-East. In
countries like Egypt and aAlgeria there were Islamist insurgents (trying to topple their
governments), and there were civil wars and other types of conflicts. Jihadi groups
looked for safe havens, and Europe became that for radical Islamist activists. For the
rest of the decade, these exiles used Europe as a base but didnt attack Europe except
for attacks in Belgium in 95-96 by part of Algerian insurgency. There were too many
benefits to rock the boat. In London, many activists were left alone by British
authorities saying that the government would give them alone as long as they did
nothing. They started sending people as foreign fighters in Yemen and Afghanistan.

2) 2000s: more attack activity, the al-Qaeda phase. The rise of al-Qaeda organization
is one cause, as bin-Laden concocted plots against the West. There are activists that
come to Europe who have lost touch with their original homeland and they turn their
eyes towards Europe. Steady stream of plots: Madrid 2004, London 2005 These
succesfull attacks were the tip of the iceberg. For every successful attack there were
many more that were foiled (thanks to police or random problems). Around 5-16 plots
every year. To the end of the decade, the rate seemed to slow down a little bit. In
2010-2011, with the beginning of Arab Spring and death of bin-Laden.

3) early 2010s-today: IS phase, Jihadi resurgence. There was a dramatic increase in the
activity in European Jihadism. More plots, successful attacks, deaths, foreign fighters.
Till today, over 5000 people have gone to become foreign fighters, while in the
previous two decades over 1000 people went. Why did this happen?

The verdict is still out, academics need more times to process. There are however
some factors:
- the Arab Spring, or the weakening of State capacity in key countries in the region:
the uprisings in Egypt, Yemen, Syria distracted security agencies in these places and in
some places led to the complete collapse of the order, providing more space for Jihadi
groups to increase in size. This affects Europe by finding a motivation. Another
important thing that happened is the weakening of State control on the Internet: since
2011 it became easier to operate online, thanks to social media and new platforms
that were more difficult for governments to block. Using forums was too hard, but with
social medias the NSA could not hack Twitter and other platforms because they
needed court orders in order to get info over users. The rise of social media provided
more security to Jihadism. This digital empowerment revolution combined with the
rise of foreign fighters, overwhelmed the intelligence, who had to control too many
people online. People in Syria were communicating on a daily basis with their mates at
home, sending pictures and safety of their current lives (in 2000s this was not
possible).

Why do we see this variation? What is driving Jihadism in Europe?

The answer is still unknown, trying to understand why some joined militant groups and
some didnt, why more plots in some countries rather than others There have been 4
big insights:

- the politics of the Middle-East matter. Jihadi in Europe is both independent and
closely linked to whats happening in the Middle-East, being able to see what is
happening back home and becoming angry. Politics in the Middle-East can provide an
arena for training foreign fighters.

- entrepreneurs matter. In order to get attacks in Europe, you need entrepreneurs

who are more resourceful and creative than your average activist. There is a linear
expression of dissatisfaction in the country, because the anger produces the violence,
but some population might be very angry and there is no violence. You need people,
resources that translate anger into actual violence. These people organize the
violence. Peter Nessa has done some work in terrorist cells: more cells pertain a
constellation of activist types, since most have an entrepreneur, a protegee
(assistant), misfits (economically frustrated, trying to find a group), drifters (identity
shoppers).

- poverty matters more than thought. Recent evidence suggests that poverty has a
causal effect on terrorism in Eastern countries. In Europe, a majority of Jihadists are
economically underperforming, while in the Middle-East they are part of the middle-
higher class (think bin Laden).

- technology matters. Change on the Internets, new communication platforms from

one month to another can alter a pattern of attacks in Europe cause it provides an
extra capability to terrorists.

In the long-term, these four insights show that things are going in the wrong way:
micro-trends that are ominous.
With Politics matter, politics is going to be persistent for the foreseeable future.
Things could get better, but there might not be peace and order in the next 10 years
since fighting doesnt seem like ending anytime soon. Egypt and other countries have
become authoritarian, and there are powder kegs.

With entrepreneurs matter, there are more Jihadist entrepreneurs in Europe because
we have more plots and foreign fighters. They often have background as foreign
fighters or inmates, had a role as activists in the past. This is used to attract more
people, for they are older and more charismatic. According to Europole, over 2000
people were arrested for Jihadi terrorism counts in Europe, 5000 went as foreign
fighters Right now, many are in prison or are keeping their heads down, but over
time it will be difficult to keep track of everyones activity.

We will have more economically deprived young Muslims in Europe. A study by PEW in
2010, Muslim population is going to grow to 50% in Europe. There are no signs in
social mobility that Muslim population in Europe is increasing. Theres Muslim
underclass in Europe. Many Muslims come from an immigrant background. Because
social mobility is low, their families have stayed low as well. Add discrimination and
islamophobia, and its harder even for those with strong qualifications to get jobs
compared to non-Muslims. The absolute number of young Muslims in Europe who are
underperforming is going to increase. Doesnt mean therell be more Jihadists, but it
doesnt help.

The terrorist freedom online is growing. Governments are not able to control the
Internet. There is a lot of encryption, and in the foreseeable future it is easy for
Jihadists to exploit the web for their goals.

In the long term (5-6 years), we might see more Jihad activity in Europe. Most plots are
going to be foiled, a steady stream of successful attacks, and prisons filling up with
people involved.

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QUESTION TIME

Q) Are Jihadi going to be more conforming? Are there still going to be misfits?

A) Entrepreneurs and protegees are resourceful. They are ideologically drawn; they are
idealists. You also have a larger group of people from economically disadvantaged
populations. The average Jihadi has been an economically underperforming one. Over
time, the only trend is that the median has gone down: they have become poorer than
they used to be. Might be explained by the fact that they are more numerous. Jihad is
a fringe activity. Originally, it was more dangerous being a Jihadi (selection effect, only
the very committed were involved), whereas in recent years it is cost-free to become a
Jihadi or foreign fighters (ex-convicts, gang members).

Q) Variation across countries

A) It has to do with which types of immigrants they had, from where they come from,
whether there were wars or not. France and Belgium have had strong Jihadi troops
cause they attracted many from Algerian and other North African communities.
Political activism travels through social networks. Countries that have not had wars
(like Turks in Germany) there is less violence and there is less indigenous Jihadi
population in the countries.

Q) Can prisons become a building ground for new Jihadists?

A) Cash 22. Very few people de-radicalize in prison, but quite a few de-mobilize. De-
radicalization is changing view of Jihadi ideology, and it happened with a minority; the
vast majority have not de-radicalized. Jihadi inmates can recruit other non-Jihadi
inmates: ordinary criminals can be recruited, and we could be producing more
Jihadists. Do you put all the Jihadi inmates in one prison wing, or do you spread them
out?

Q) What could be the differences between Jihadi and other sorts of terrorism? What
measures could be taken against these types of actions?

A) Terrorism is not new, and Europe has seen a lot of it. There were more attacks in the
70s and 80s. Still, we stop more attacks today. Most organizations who perpetrated
this have declined. Jihadism has been rising and it shows no signs of going down. My
theory is that it has to do with the Middle-East: Jihadi has strategic depth in Europe
and Middle-East (if you have a war zone where you fight with the enemy, its good to
have a territory to which you can retreat and resupply). They could go to Yemen (far
right), but the others are stuck in Europe (far left).

Jihadi ideology has an appeal for it has more of an authenticity than other types of
idealized ideologies. There is an historical precedent in Islamic tradition, they took
elements of thinking in the Muslim wars and created a modern concoction. If you dont
understand the nuances. You need to contrast it with neo-Nazism and extreme Leftism.
This are fundamentally new ideas. Jihadism appeals for being authentic and we cant
dismiss it as something that is completely separate from Islam. It is a fringe
phenomenon and it strives on manipulating political symbols.

Q) Can the situation improve for those who are economically undervalued? How?

A) By reducing the number of people who think that, by studying hard, they will be
distracted by discrimination, who lose their hope and determination. Even if it doesnt
help, itd be good for the economy, welfare, majority of the population. We have to
invest more money in education.