DJ European Forex Technicals

Thu Jul 29 02:22:00 EDT 2010

USD Set For Fresh Bout Of Weakness

By Francis Bray
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:

Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF

Spot 0455 GMT 1.3013 87.15 1.5620 1.0561

3 Day Trend Bullish Bearish Bullish Bearish
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Bullish Bearish
200 day ma 1.3277 91.04 1.5378 1.0791
3rd Resistance 1.3095 88.12 1.5700 1.0640
2nd Resistance 1.3047 87.72 1.5650 1.0623
1st Resistance 1.3040 87.52 1.5638 1.0600
Pivot* 1.3002 87.61 1.5595 1.0576
1st Support 1.2980 87.03 1.5574 1.0537
2nd Support 1.2969 86.82 1.5525 1.0482
3rd Support 1.2952 86.60 1.5510 1.0461

Intraday EUR/USD: Wednesday's inside day keeps Tuesday's eleven-week high at 1.3047 intact
while tracing out a bull pennant, and the rally off 1.2969 is likely to bring the 1.3047 high back
into the picture. A break above there would open the May 10 lower reaction high at 1.3095, but
upside scope exists for the 1.3125 area, where both the measured objective of an inverse head-
and-shoulders base and 38.2% retracement of the 1.5145/1.1876 decline lie. Failure to break
above 1.3047 would prompt weakness back to the bull pennant support line around 1.2980.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bullish.

Intraday USD/JPY: Suffers a sharp setback off Wednesday's high at 88.12, and is set for further
weakness towards the downwave equality target at 87.03. However, the powerful move behind
this setback suggests there is scope for a much deeper move towards Monday's low at 86.82 and
the 1.618 extension target at 86.60. A break above 87.52 is required to provide respite, but only
above 87.72 would suggest a return to the 88.12 high.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.

Intraday GBP/USD: Wednesday's high at 1.5638 is back under pressure as the short-term bull
trend shows no sign of abating. 1.5638 represents 50% retracement of the 1.7041/1.4229 decline,
and a break above 1.5638 would open sterner resistance in the 1.5700 area. A break below
1.5574 is required to defer the bullish outlook, exposing the 1.5510/25 support area.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.
Intraday USD/CHF: Suffers a sharp setback Wednesday after failing to find the strength to test
Tuesday's peak at 1.0640, and support at 1.0537 is set for renewed bear pressure. There is risk of
lateral consolidation should 1.0537 hold, but the dominant threat is for a break lower towards
Monday's low at 1.0461. Only above 1.0600 would create an opportunity to retest the 1.0640
high.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD

Spot 0523 GMT 0.8331 113.37 1.3742 0.8955

3 Day Trend Bearish Bearish Bearish Bullish
Weekly Trend Bearish Bullish Bullish Bullish
200 day ma 0.8631 120.92 1.4299 0.8762
3rd Resistance 0.8415 114.74 1.3946 0.9070
2nd Resistance 0.8375 114.07 1.3819 0.9026
1st Resistance 0.8367 113.75 1.3772 0.8974
Pivot* 0.8337 113.87 1.3755 0.8951
1st Support 0.8314 113.18 1.3715 0.8910
2nd Support 0.8300 112.70 1.3675 0.8858
3rd Support 0.8250 112.21 1.3625 0.8803

Intraday EUR/GBP: Remains under bear pressure following the setback off Tuesday's high at
0.8415, and Wednesday's low at 0.8314 looks set for a retest. The 50% retracement level of the
0.8067/0.8531 rally lies just below 0.8314 at 0.8300, but a sustained break would create
downside scope for the 0.8200 area. A break above 0.8367 is required to question the bearish
outlook, opening 0.8415.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.

Intraday EUR/JPY: The setback off Wednesday's high at 114.74 should concern bulls, as support
failed to emerge at 113.40. The risk is for further weakness to the 112.70 area, but there is scope
for Monday's low at 112.21. Regaining ground above 114.07 is required to lift the tone and re-
open the 114.74 high.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bullish.

Intraday EUR/CHF: Wednesday's higher high, lower close marks a temporary setback for the
short-term bull trend, and a break below 1.3715 would prompt deeper corrective weakness
towards 1.3675 and 1.3625. However, downside scope looks limited to 1.3625 at this stage, and
weakness towards here should attract short-term bulls. A break above 1.3772 is required to re-
open the 1.3819 peak, threatening to extend the bull trend towards 1.3946 and 1.4000.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bullish.

Intraday AUD/USD: A recovery is underway off Wednesday's low at 0.8910 as resistance at

0.8974 comes under pressure. A break above there would continue the retracement of the setback
off Tuesday's high at 0.9070, opening key resistance in the 0.9026 area. Only a reversal below
0.8910 would negate the recovery hopes, exposing 0.8858.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.

Disclaimer
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not
consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a
specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the
information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow
Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)