Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
PRESIDENT
Elizabeth J. Mendenhall, ABR, ABRM, CIPS, CRB, GRI, ePRO, LCI, PMN
P R E S I D E N T- E L E C T
John S. Smaby
TREASURER
Thomas A. Riley, CCIM, CRB
I M M E D I A T E P A S T- P R E S I D E N T
Bill E. Brown
VICE PRESIDENT
Colleen A. Badagliacco, CRB, CRS, ePro, GRI, SRES
VICE PRESIDENT
Kenny Parcell, ABR, CRS
Reproduction, reprinting or retransmission in any form is prohibited without written permission. Although
the information presented in this survey has been obtained from reliable sources, NAR does not guarantee
its accuracy, and such information may be incomplete. This report is for information purposes only.
N AT I O N A L A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LT O R S ®
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 | Introduction 5
2 | Survey Highlights 8
3 | Survey Results 10
4 | Methodology 19
INTRODUCTION
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS TRENDS 2018
On the global front, the past year has experienced a thaw in economic
conditions. It was not long ago that developed economies were grap-
pling with economic weakness, as central banks reached for unprece-
dented negative interest rates to stem the declines in output. However,
from the midpoint of 2016, world economies have regained their foot-
ing and have pressed toward higher ground.
Global economic output increased in 2017, with international commercial real estate transactions
5
the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimating moved sideways. Total global sales volume for
it at 3.7 percent, an upward revision from earlier investment properties totaled $873.3 billion in
forecasts. Equally importantly, the IMF noted 2017, according to Real Capital Analytics (RCA),
that 75 percent of the world economy experienced on par with the prior year. However, sales of
accelerating growth this past year. Encouragingly, development sites jumped 39 percent year-over-
the IMF’s projections for the growth of global year, adding an additional $674.5 billion to global
economies calls for 3.9 percent advanced in both volume. Most of development-tied investment
2018 and 2019. took place in China. While office remained the
largest sector by volume, global investment sales
The economic gains were most noticeable across declined by one percent. The industrial and
Europe, where the anxiety sparked by the 2016 apartment sectors were the only two to experience
United Kingdom referendum decision to leave the yearly investment gains, of 33 percent and two
European Union gave way to a more tempered percent, respectively.
outlook. The Asian region also recorded positive
economic performance, as Chinese growth picked In the US, large cap investment sales reached
up a slight tailwind. In the Americas, economic $463.9 billion in 2017, a seven percent drop from
trends underscored a rising global tide, with the 2016 levels, based on RCA data. International
United States (US) and Canada posting solid investors remained active in U.S. commercial
economic gains. Central and South American markets, however their market share returned to
economies took more moderate paths. Canada historical levels, accounting for 11 percent of total
and Mexico remained engaged in renegotiating the volume.
North American Free Trade Agreement with the
United States during the year. Cross-border capital focused primarily on office
and apartment properties during the year, mostly
With the backdrop of rising economic conditions, in major metropolitan areas. However, foreign
N AT I O N A L A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LT O R S ®
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS TRENDS 2018
investors remained increasingly active in secondary Based on data from a national survey,
and tertiary markets, where strengthening REALTORS® were active in cross-border
economies, rising employment and solid cash flows commercial real estate transactions during 2017.
for income-producing properties have resulted With the rising profile of smaller capitalization
in higher returns. Canada retained the number markets, 18 percent of survey respondents reported
one spot for the highest investment volume in closing an investment sale involving international
large cap US markets, followed by Singapore and clients. Respondents completed a median of one
China. Germany continued as a major source of buyer-side international deal in 2017, and two
funding in 2017, coming in the fourth spot in the seller-side international transactions. In addition,
rankings. The Netherlands jumped from the 20th 19 percent of REALTORS® who answered the
spot in 2016 to number five, with a significant survey indicated they completed a lease agreement
increase in investments. on behalf of an international client during the
year. Business relationships were at the core of
In contrast to the large cap commercial market REALTORS®’ transactions, with personal contacts,
transactions reported by RCA (aggregated at former clients and previous client referrals
$10 million and above), most REALTORS® who comprising the majority of investment sources.
specialize in commercial real estate managed A higher share of international transactions were
investment deals averaging less than $2.5 million closed with cash during the year, accounting for 70
per deal, frequently located in secondary and percent of total, while 25 percent of deals involved
tertiary markets. The Commercial Real Estate debt financing from U.S. sources. Over a third of
International Business Trends 2018 focuses on this REALTORS® expect international buying activity
significant segment of the economy and real estate to increase in 2018.
markets.
6
G L O B A L C O M M E R C I A L R E A L E S TAT E S A L E S V O L U M E
N AT I O N A L A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LT O R S ®
SURVEY HIGHLIGHTS
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS TRENDS 2018
N AT I O N A L A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LT O R S ®
SURVEY RESULTS
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS TRENDS 2018
International Investment
Activity
Among respondents engaged in sales and sales/
leasing, and who completed a commercial
transaction during 2017, 18 percent closed
a transaction with international clients (20
percent in 2016). This is in line with historical
C O M M E R C I A L R E A L E S TAT E S P E C I A LT Y
data collected by the National Association of
REALTORS®.
T Y P E O F I N T E R N AT I O N A L S A L E S T R A N S A C T I O N S I N V O LV I N G
COMMERCIAL CLIENT I N T E R N AT I O N A L C L I E N T S
N AT I O N A L A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LT O R S ®
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS TRENDS 2018
I N T E R N AT I O N A L C L I E N T S ’ V I E W O F U . S . R E A L C A P I TA L S O U R C E O F I N T E R N AT I O N A L
E S TAT E P R I C E S ACQUISITION
N AT I O N A L A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LT O R S ®
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS TRENDS 2018
The top state destinations were Florida (23 TOP COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN OF
percent), Texas (19 percent), and California I N T E R N AT I O N A L C O M M E R C I A L B U Y E R S
(13 percent. Other top destinations were
Massachusetts, Michigan, Illinois, Nevada,
Arizona, Connecticut, Georgia, and Ohio.
N AT I O N A L A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LT O R S ®
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS TRENDS 2018
Among commercial international buyers, 39 cited lack of inventory as a main reason, echoing
percent purchased the commercial property as broader trends in U.S. markets. The high cost
an investment, and 34 percent purchased the of property was the second main reason for not
property for a business they participate in. The purchasing, at 23 percent of responses. Difficulty
Other category, which accounted for 16 percent, moving money out of the home country was the
includes a purchase of the property for the buyer’s third major reason, at 17 percent of responses.
residential use, either for primary or vacation use. Immigration laws, financing, and exposure to U.S.
tax laws, and property taxes were also cited as other
About one-in-five international clients decided not reasons why the client decided not to purchase
to purchase U.S. commercial properties in 2017. property.
Over 37 percent of those who chose not to buy
13
N AT I O N A L A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LT O R S ®
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS TRENDS 2018
International Investment
Activity (1 of 3)
BUYER SIDE SELLER SIDE
Referral sources
Former client 25% Former client 33%
Personal contact 14% Personal contact 24%
Previous client referral 13% Previous client referral 19%
Website/Organic search 12% Website/Organic search 10%
U.S. business contact 6% U.S. business contact 10%
Signs/ads on boards/yards 6% Signs/ads on boards/yards *
Website/Paid ad 4% Website/Paid ad *
Outside U.S. business contact 4% Outside U.S. business contact *
Walked into office 1% Walked into office *
N AT I O N A L A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LT O R S ®
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS TRENDS 2018
International Investment
Activity (2 of 3)
BUYER SIDE SELLER SIDE
N AT I O N A L A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LT O R S ®
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS TRENDS 2018
International Investment
Activity (3 of 3)
BUYER SIDE SELLER SIDE
Capital sources
All cash (no mortgage financing) 70%
With mortgage financing - U.S. sources 25%
With mortgage financing - sources in
2%
buyer’s home country
Unknown 3%
Property type
Apartment 20% Other 27%
Industrial 20% Industrial 23% 16
Other 20% Apartment 18%
Land 16% Land 14%
Retail 13% Office 14%
Office 9% Hotel 5%
Hotel 2% Retail *
N AT I O N A L A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LT O R S ®
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS TRENDS 2018
N AT I O N A L A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LT O R S ®
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS TRENDS 2018
International Appraisal FA I L E D T R A N S A C T I O N S D U E S O L E LY T O
A P P R A I S E D VA L U E
Activity
During 2017, eight percent of REALTORS®’
specializing in commercial appraisals who
responded to the survey were engaged with
international clients (15 percent in 2016).
Respondents reported having completed a median
of two appraisals for their clients (two appraisals in
2016).
N AT I O N A L A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LT O R S ®
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS TRENDS 2018
Outlook F I V E - Y E A R C H A N G E I N I N T E R N AT I O N A L
CLIENTS
Over the past 12 months, 25 percent of survey
respondents experienced an increase in the number
of international clients looking to buy, while 15
percent experienced an increase in the number
of international clients seeking to sell. Interest of
international clients seeking to buy or sell appears
to have eased in the past 12 months compared
to conditions during the last five years, which is
indicated by the higher fraction of respondents
who reported an increase in clients seeking to buy
(35 percent) and seeking to sell ( 20 percent).
1 2 - M O N T H C H A N G E I N I N T E R N AT I O N A L
CLIENTS Methodology of NAR’s
Commercial Real Estate
International Business Survey
In December of 2017, NAR invited a random
sample of 67,802 REALTORS® with an interest in
commercial real estate to fill out an online survey.
A total of 1,108 responses were received for an
overall response rate of 1.6 percent.
N AT I O N A L A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LT O R S ®
ABOUT THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics.
N AT I O N A L A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LT O R S ®
CHICAGO OFFICE
430 North Michigan Avenue
Chicago, IL 60611
800-874-6500
WASHINGTON, DC OFFICE
500 New Jersey Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20001
202-383-1000
N AT I O N A L A S S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LT O R S ®